USA G-8 22:38 GMT August 21, 2006
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stopped out GC06z small loss ,It was the second trade short from $650 .
I plan on trading it again when the cycle is right.
Syd 22:14 GMT August 21, 2006
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NZD/USD Looks Overextended On Spread - BNZ
NZD/USD starting to look overextended based on implied 90-day NZ-U.S. futures spread, says Bank of NZ strategist Danica Hampton; thinks sustained break of 0.6400 unlikely without NZ-U.S. 90-day implied spread widening towards 240 bps vs around 211 bps now. Also pair capped by expected selling ahead of option-barriers at 0.6450, heavy market positioning.
Tonbridge AL 21:49 GMT August 21, 2006
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GD Silver: big triangle ? guess you mean by drawing the line from the 12.665 Aug 9th high through August 16th and 17th = cut through at 12.310 and todays lows were 12.290
fwiw
10dma 12.172 sideways to possibly trying to turn back down
100dma 12.095 possibly flattening off
20dma 11.935 pointed up
50dma 11.241 trying to turn up
profile shows a hidden pivot at 12.140
also note the May selloff 50%= this am highs which were also 75% of range from August 9th
rsi is neutral, macd is flat was trying to turn down before this am rally. any pullback would create a sell x
E-wave shows we are in a 4 th of an ABC channel wedge with 5th projected around 8.085 which is also a 1.272 fib extension
and Just for you GD the bull argument might be something like > 12.570 = 12.680 = 13.150 = 13.500 = 13.900ish and half way into the gap and where E-wave structure would still show that this was a 4th wave of an ABC channel wedge.
Lastly there appears to be a 19 day cycle in operation and we are in day 9
Tonbridge AL 21:27 GMT August 21, 2006
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gvm try 117.53
sydney gvm 21:00 GMT August 21, 2006
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Hey AL do you have a view on where these Bunds might run in to resistance this week ? I am thinking about shorting any rally on the open Tuesday TIA
Vienna GD 20:44 GMT August 21, 2006
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Anybody with a proper working chart software: did silver break out of that big triangle today? If not where is the line in tghe sand?
Vienna GD 19:43 GMT August 21, 2006
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Strong buying on such a strong up-day ... VERY VERY RARE ... LINK, similar silver LINK
Vienna GD 18:50 GMT August 21, 2006
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Patra alex 18:45 ... alex just wanted to post that eventually one might consider to open (also) XAUEUR positions here ... nice you "concluded" that!
Patra alex 18:45 GMT August 21, 2006
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Vienna GD 18:29 GMT August 21, 2006
With your theory mate, its better to buy Gold against EUR. Looking forward to long Gold myself, but I will wait a little bit (before 27 of August) to see if I can catch better levels..
Vienna GD 18:29 GMT August 21, 2006
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Patra alex 18:00 GMT August 21, 2006
Long USD isn't going contra to metals long positions? Thanks again GD
Alex, at the first glance yes ... but take a look at Q2 and Q3 in 2005 and study what happened to the buck and gold and eur. That could happen again. Maybe - but maybe also not.
Yet i'm prepared for that case.
Patra alex 18:00 GMT August 21, 2006
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Vienna GD 17:35 GMT August 21, 2006
Long USD isn't going contra to metals long positions? Thanks again GD
Vienna GD 17:35 GMT August 21, 2006
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Patra alex 16:47 GMT August 21, 2006
Vienna GD, Are you long Swiss mate?
Alex, i'm not sure yet in which direction currencies (dollar euro, swissy) will go from here. At the first glance it looks like swissy long. But i'm not so sure a bout that - yet i think we are also close to a BO in one direction.
My guess is a dollar rally sooner or later ... Euro wasn't/isn't able to break 1.30. ... way too much dollar bears out there (one-sided market) ... i think 1.30 will be strongly protected by EU CBs, ... iran conflict might cause a run to safe treasuries once the point of no return is passed ... eurjpy pretty close to target of 150 ... etc.
Today is/was a good day to open some usd longs i think - already slightly long usd here and waiting for further intraday trendline breaks (eurusd, chfusd, ...) or even better level for shorts (150 isn't done yet).
But alex DYOD, i could be wrong in currencies.
Imho metals are much easier to trade here.
hong kong seek 17:14 GMT August 21, 2006
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london mamun 16:19 GMT August 21, 2006
Vienna GD
i m back. gold gone up. is it sell here?
sold early at 624 , but closed at b/e , still hold Sep 640C
Vienna GD 17:11 GMT August 21, 2006
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london mamun 16:19 GMT August 21, 2006
Vienna GD
i m back. gold gone up. is it sell here?
Vienna GD 15:16 GMT August 21, 2006
So ... just for the case that gold or silver should start falling from here ... i think from here there's just one rule left: dips in gold and silver are to be bought. No matter how deep they go.
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Mamun i concede i'm not smart enough to short here anymore.
I'm long till up to my ears, in the physical, the paper and the stocks - and as long i don't see the $HUI to reverse clearly - i'll stay so.
For me it's sell a few % in the upper trend channel region and buy a few % in the lower trend channel region.
From now on - as far as i can see.
But again - DYOD, because i could be wrong or course!
Patra alex 16:47 GMT August 21, 2006
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Vienna GD,
Are you long Swiss mate?
london mamun 16:19 GMT August 21, 2006
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Vienna GD
i m back. gold gone up. is it sell here?
Vienna GD 15:16 GMT August 21, 2006
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Gold, oil and energies all up ... aug 22 ... as already expected last week.
Gold and silver stocks didn't confirm last weeks selloff in the metals and they confirm strength today. Almost no retracements in the $HUI - as it it knew that we are pretty close to the next huge leg up.
So ... just for the case that gold or silver should start falling from here ... i think from here there's just one rule left: dips in gold and silver are to be bought. No matter how deep they go.
Ditto nothing changed to my stock market strategy: rallies are to be sold. Especially the european markets.
But i could be wrong - so DYOD!!!!
Hong Kong Qindex 15:10 GMT August 21, 2006
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Spot Gold : The market is going to test the supporting strength of the range 619 - 620.
Vienna GD 14:51 GMT August 21, 2006
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Vienna GD 17:23 GMT August 17, 2006
I think it is time to put those ETFs on the buy list ... USO, DBC, OIH, XLE, GDX, ... DYOD!!!!
All ETFs nicely up ... with GDX up almost 5% since that post.
Vienna GD 14:46 GMT August 21, 2006
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Vienna GD 19:12 GMT August 17, 2006
Again on my watchlist with a small short: F
Down appr. 5% since that post.
hong kong seek 12:28 GMT August 21, 2006
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short small gold at 624.2 , stopless
Syd 07:47 GMT August 21, 2006
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UK house prices declined for the first time since December 2005 in August, as the mini boom in the south east of England began to lose steam, property Web site Rightmove says Monday. Rightmove's House Price Index shows prices fell 1.6% in August - the steepest decline since November 2004 - and were up 9.0% on the year. In July, Rightmove's index rose a revised 2.9% on the month and was up 10.6% year-on-year. "Prices have passed their peak for 2006," says Miles Shipside, commercial director at Rightmove.
Vienna GD 07:10 GMT August 21, 2006
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And what i'm watching since days is the behaviour of eurchf ... eurchf VERY often goes up AHEAD of trouble to come.
Guess why? Indeed easy question - because most of the smart money (and the know of what is to come next) is in the swiss allocated. So i think the SNB can prepare for what is to come.
Vienna GD 07:04 GMT August 21, 2006
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Vienna GD 14:38 GMT August 17, 2006
My guts tellin me that da big boyz ... ahead of aug 22 iran responding to UN ... will do everything possible to smack commodities ... because thereafter all of them could easily start a months long rally.
Also we are coming closer and closer to hurricane season, so the have 2 reason to smack crb components.
Just my guts and a wild guess ... so DYOD
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There you have it ... gold again 620 (from fridays low of appr. 607 spot) ... and it isn't tuesday yet.
And guess what the broads will do the next days? In europe they already smoothly started to decline ... da boyz in the know unloading to the sheep and lemmlings here - not?!
Syd 06:49 GMT August 21, 2006
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Latest U.K. housing data are conspiring with bearish technical signals to target a further weakening in sterling toward US$1.8743, then US$1.8619, in coming days.
According to property Web site Rightmove on Monday, U.K. housing prices declined for the first time since Decmber 2005 in August as a mini boom in the South east of England began to lose steam. Its Rightmove House Price Index fell 1.6% on month in August, the steepest decline since November 2004, and were up 9.0% on year. In July, the index was up 2.9% on month and 10.6% on year.
A recent rise in U.K. interest rates increased borrowing costs for house buyers, suggesting that the hefty gains in property prices seen in the first half of this year can no longer be sustained.
At 0615 GMT Monday, sterling was quoted at US$1.8865.
The daily chart is looking bearish after sterling fell below US$1.8905 last week, marked by an uptrend support line that runs from the July 18 low of US$1.8184.
In addition, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence line has fallen below its exponential moving average to signal a sell on the pound against the U.S. dollar.
The daily stochastic indicator is falling but isn't oversold, suggesting further room for the pound to fall against the U.S. dollar.
A bearish divergence of the weekly chart against its weekly stochastic indicator is evident, with sterling rising to US$1.9146 on Aug.8, higher than the previous peak at US$1.9027 on May 17. The stochastic, though, is making lower corresponding highs.
Sterling could weaken to target US$1.8743, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the advance from the June 29 base of US$1.8091 to the Aug. 8 peak at US$1.9146.
Any extension of the fall from US$1.8743 would next target US$1.8619, the 50% correction level
houston st 02:52 GMT August 21, 2006
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eur/jpy charts updated...take out the underscore for link to work...gl/gt.
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