Forex Futures Forum Archive for 08/22/2006

sydney gvm 22:20 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
Tonbridge AL no worries - I decided not to short - am waiting to see where it rolls over [if it does] on my indicators before I jump in

Syd 21:58 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
Guynn warned "a bit of inflation can get out of hand quickly, especially when consumers and businesses expect more price increases, waste time and effort trying to beat inflation, and then rush to spend more money in a vicious inflationary cycle." He added "the consequences of high inflation were and remain economically poisonous: increased uncertainty and risk, the added incentive to consume instead of invest, cost of living adjustments, and other marketplace distortions."

Vienna GD 20:09 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
My guess for tomorrow: metals again pushed lower in us open - like today. Yet later $HUI will take out resistance at 350 ... supported by a modest rally in the broads.
Just wild guess or course ... so DYOD!!!

Vienna GD 20:04 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
$HUI again closed near intraday highs ... what else should be said?! Serpentine north.

Livingston nh 17:18 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
Cape Town 13:30 GMT August 22, 2006 - nothing remarkable about insiders not buying -- they din't get dumber as the stock went higher - I am surprised that Gates and Dell held on to as much stock as they did in the "bubble" years-- Iomega was the precur sor stock chart for the bubble - GOOG is the other side of that same bubble

Tonbridge AL 17:18 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
GD u r welcome.
GVM sorry the 53 level held for all of 3 minutes and is now key for the bulls to maintain.

Vienna GD 16:18 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
$HUI is at strong resistance here ... but once and if 349 is cleared (3 pts from here) ... we are off to the races ... IMHO.

Vienna GD 16:11 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
And again $HUI is outperforming the metals. The typical bullish behaviour in an up-move with a drop at the open and now we are slightly in the green.

The dip to 622 in gold and silver to 12.0x was just to shake the weak hands and to get some additional pocket money for da smarter boyz. As so often "ell some in europe session and buy em back some hours after the NY boyz have done their job".

Vienna GD 15:17 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
Tonbridge AL 21:49 GMT August 21, 2006

Many thx for your detailed analysis! I will have to study that!

Vienna GD 15:04 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
Cyprus Smooth Swimming Frog 13:30 GMT August 22, 2006
Anyone going to jail over this? ... hey ssf da big boyz (da creature) make da rules - so why should they go to jail?

That is just wishful thinkin. He who has the money makes the rules period. And btw they will bail out when the time is ripe.

houston st 14:53 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
posted the main euro crosses for comparison & to see the revised support/resistance on the charts...take the underscore out of this link to see...gl/gt.

Cyprus Smooth Swimming Frog 13:30 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
There really is an oil crisis, just not the one you think.

There's apparently too much oil and not enough places to store it all. There are hush hush reports in the industry that 14 to 16 oil tankers are waiting to unload in Singapore but they can't find storage facilities on land.

Reports are that this "floating" storage is now being bid for aggressively by oil companies.

As I've said before speculators are jacking up the price of "paper barrels" of oil and this eventually affects the price of real oil, even if today's criminally high prices aren't justified.

Anyone going to jail over this? Ask the folks at Enron (who are still alive) what happens when you rig an energy market.

john.crudele@nypost.com

Cape Town 13:30 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin are selling shares in their company at a rate of $US22 million a week. As of August 9, they had sold almost 23 million shares. That means Google's top executives offloaded about $US7.4 billion of stock, equal to about a third of the company's starting market value when it sold shares at $US85 each in the August 2004 IPO. It is remarkable that not one Google insider has bought a share of the company in the 18 months since the IPO lock-ups expired, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from the Washington Service, which tracks insider sales.

Syd 10:38 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
Bundesbank President Axel Weber still opposes gold sales for budgetary measures, daily newspaper Bild reported Tuesday.

"It's not a good idea to touch the substance. It would be better to consequently push for the reduction of debts," Weber said. "Gold is an important factor for the confidence in the stability of the euro," he added.

The Bundesbank has gold reserves of around 3,400 metric tons.

But Weber also noted, that the bank "has never said not to sell gold in general."

"It's imaginable to shift reserves from gold into foreign currencies. But we won't tap into the reserves", he said.

Newspaper Web site: http://www.bild.de

Syd 07:55 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
Forex Focus: Iran Worries May Reverse Risk Appetite Rise
The dollar could well get help from a rebound in risk aversion as concern over Iran's nuclear ambitions rises once again.

According to some measures, global risk aversion fell last week to its lowest level since February 2005, providing support for high-yielding and emerging market currencies against the dollar.

However, this trend could quickly be reversed, especially if new worries about the Middle East trigger another rally in oil prices.

"Oil prices have fallen steeply of late but renewed concerns over Iran and its nuclear activities mean that this move will not continue unabated," warned Tom Levinson, an economist with ING Financial Markets in London.
After flirting with $80 a barrel only last month, the price of crude has slipped back again towards $70 a barrel as Israel and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon agreed to a cease-fire and the whole discussion of Iranian nuclear capability took a back seat.

All this encouraged a decline in risk aversion, with investors showing increasing interest in assets that weren't just a safe bet.

Tania Kotsos, senior emerging markets strategist with RBC Capital Markets in London, reported that by last Friday her bank's risk aversion measure had fallen to -5.0, its lowest level since February 2005, from -3.3 the week before.

She said this increase in global risk appetite was helpful, particularly for currencies with foreign capital funding requirements, such as the New Zealand dollar, the Hungarian forint, the Turkish lira and the South African rand.

However, Kotsos points out that the rise in appetite wasn't "broad-based" and was being driven largely by a fall in equity volatility, as foreign exchange volatility fell only slightly and corporate and emerging market bond spreads actually widened.

This could help to make it that much easier for risk aversion to rise again.
Trevor Dinmore, a currency strategist with Deutsche Bank in London, noted that euro/dollar has generally fluctuated in line with crude.

However, in recent months there is evidence that this correlation has broken down. "Recently this relationship appears to have become more distant as significant corrections in crude oil prices seen in late April/early May and the August correction have not been quickly followed by corrections lower in the euro/dollar," he said.

"Though crude oil may be sitting just above key chart support and facing some key geopolitical event risks (Iran uranium enrichment, Israel-Lebanon ceasefire) the translation of crude oil price action to euro/dollar appears to have become weaker," Dinmore added.

In the meantime, it is the likely rise in risk aversion if there is new war of words between Washington and Tehran that could play into the dollar's hands.

"Increased risk aversion could work to the dollar's favor against some of the emerging market high-yielders so we will have to watch this situation carefully," said Steve Barrow, chief currency strategist with Bear Stearns International in London.

As the markets wait for new developments, the dollar rose to Y116.06 by 0645 GMT from Y115.87 late Monday in New York, according to EBS. The euro was down at $1.2879 from $1.2894 ahead of the latest German ZEW survey, that's expected to show business sentiment continuing to decline.
Reuters

Syd 03:17 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
PBOC Hike Likely To Hurt China Bks - S&P

China banking sector likely to suffer from PBOC rate hike Friday, says S&P, as loans growth slows, but deposit growth remains vigorous, squeezing profitability by accelerating continuing decline in loan-to-deposit ratio. "Slower loan growth could reduce the risk of a sharp deterioration in the sector's asset quality, a scenario that would represent a much bigger threat to the development of the industry than any moderate near-term pressure on profitability or asset quality," its credit analyst Qiang Liao says; but notes resulting increase in nonperforming assets likely to be manageable as scale of interest rise reasonable.(

Syd 02:21 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
Concerns Over Slowing Growth To Cap Metals
LME base metals mixed in Asia; number of bullish factors - strikes, low global inventories, generally weaker USD - should continue to underpin base metals but rallies likely capped by fears of U.S./China-led slowdown in global economy, says UBS's Robion Bhar, which would undermine demand, allow current supply/demand imbalances to be addressed; for now, copper supported by ongoing strike at Escondida mine, aluminum and zinc underpinned by falling stocks, while nickel remains in severe supply squeeze amid a fast-disappearing stockpile.

Syd 01:05 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
While some analysts think China now has little left in arsenal to slow economy but to let CNY rise, Brown Brothers Harriman says what observers not appreciating is NDRC's view China needs to create 25 million jobs this year to absorb new graduates and workers fleeing rural communities, being laid off from state-owned enterprises; many small labor-intensive producers may be operating on 2%-4% profit margin and already being squeezed. Another goal seems to be minimizing rewards to speculators; "this means allowing the pace of yuan appreciation to be less than that implied by the non-deliverable forward contracts."

sydney gvm 01:04 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   
thks AL

houston st 00:39 GMT August 22, 2006 Reply   

eur/chf, eur/jpy, and eur/cad charts updated...here's the link...take out the underscore in the link address to get to the page...gl/gt.