Forex Futures Forum Archive for 01/05/2007

dc CB 19:36 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
more news about electronic trading.

IntercontinentalExchange Announces January 19 Launch Date for Electronic Trading of NYBOT Soft Commodities; Update- Co announced that it expects to close on its planned merger with the New York Board of Trade NYBOT, the leading soft commodity exchange, in mid-January and launch side-by-side trading of the NYBOT's benchmark agricultural commodities on ICE's electronic trading platform for the trade date January 19, 2006. NYBOT's open outcry trading hours will remain unchanged. Electronic trading will be offered around the clock each trading day in the physical contracts for Sugar #11, Sugar #14, Cotton No. 2, Coffee "C", Cocoa, and Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (OJ). Electronic markets are expected to be available from 8:00 p.m. ET the prior evening until 6:00 p.m. ET of the trade date.

Vienna GD 19:07 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
$HUI already recovered half of its intraday loss

Vienna GD 18:51 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
USO new intraday high ..

hong kong seek 17:32 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
out some gold at 606

hong kong seek 17:18 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
NT--can Japanese push gold lower next monday? Janpanese are good at cracking 600 line last year... LOL

hong kong nt 17:16 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
VIENNA GD -- reload half core at 60x, if 600, euro 1.297, gbp 1.926 keep holding, then...

hong kong seek 17:13 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
GD--nice call....one thing i am sure that big boyz came back ....increased volatility this week...

Vienna GD 17:06 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Here it is:

Vienna GD 11:42 GMT January 3, 2007
Just for the records ... yesterday or day before yesterday was full moon ... if there are no other stronger forces at work actually we should expect some weakness for the next 1-2 weeks.

Vienna GD 17:04 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Looking at the charts i think the worst is over ... from here we go up in currencies against usd and the metals ...

Listening to my guts ... will they give up the line in the sand 12 and 600? Maybe trying in a couple of hours later?

What makes me thinking ... G&S stocks: only a few really snapping back - are they still afraid of another attack - like my guts?

BTW: folks what do you say to my friend up there in the skies??? Did anybody realize that almost all new and full moons in the recent months were amaaaaazingly accurate.
Go back and search my latest one! It's just a few days earlier.
Off for buying some food for teh weekend! Back later.

KL KL 17:01 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Well top of the day....keeping all indes shorts and wow....what can I say gold , crude, metals, dollar bears ...nicely taught a lesson today........ninja ready to attack gold below 600 now.... as I call it the flexible triangle...wonder how many stop loss below 590.....look at copper's drop.....like a vortex dragging all commodities.....gl gt

hong kong seek 16:57 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
GD--all base on the close price of gold today.....

Vienna GD 16:51 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
hong kong nt 16:41 ... what do you think about the broads today? ... rest of the day?
Could it be that we just saw the low?

In nay case it's pretty clear why we had high repo adds the recent days. The stocks would have plunged without ammo.

Vienna GD 16:49 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
hong kong seek 16:38 ... YES (and also paper), but not much, because i still think that they will try to crack 12 and 600.

hong kong nt 16:41 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
GOLD -- if history is any guide, $20-40 below 200 dma (621) is good R/R buy for position players, having said that, 581-601 is good R/R accumulation area...

hong kong seek 16:38 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
GD--did u load some core longs ?ths

Vienna GD 16:36 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Next week/sunday night asia is back ... would be surprised if they wouldn't buy those gifts.
Gold and silver stocks so far refuse to go lower from here ... yet i think da boyz are trying everything to crack 12 and 600.
We'll see whether they'll succeed.

NY R19 16:34 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
US Equity Indices //// Is there much posting on these here? Been so long since I have been on the forums... TIA

hk ab 16:13 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
$25 dollars almost today... GL.

hong kong seek 16:12 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
heard of many margin calls tonight....Typical friday in a dealing room....

hk ab 16:08 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
seek, I think gold has lured some momentum sellers in....watch out.

hong kong seek 16:08 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
AB--pls read bc's view on Political Forum..

hk ab 16:04 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
seek, it made me now to remember nt's favourite Mr. Hui.....

hong kong seek 16:03 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
AB--try not to load too much core here....with bc'' some more downside " ..no idea how many dollars he meant....maybe 20~30 ..then 590~600 is good r/r buy this month

hk ab 16:03 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
seek, guess this group of sellers is the same gang who sold from 640....

impressive.

hk ab 16:01 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
seek, the efforts made... now all the golds are cheap.

Makassar Alimin 15:59 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
gold is at good support here with 200 daily ema also acting as support, however there is a chance that the SHS daily will bring it lower to 560-600 range to attract more buyers

hong kong seek 15:59 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
loaded 80 core longs now.....605 filled..

hk ab 15:55 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
seek, seems the 608 will be revisited again.....

hong kong seek 15:26 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
yes...608 order executed..but now only load half of my core spot longs ...hope c 605 next week...stopless at this moment ...

hong kong nt 15:22 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
AB/SEEK -- reloaded core at 60x and have double portion 60x put..fwiw..

hong kong seek 15:22 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
added more at 609

hk ab 15:21 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
seek, congrat. for your 608 long, should be hit, right?

hk ab 15:15 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
seek, avalanche.....

hk ab 15:10 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
sell harder to get 600... now 610 floor opens.

hong kong seek 15:08 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
AB--also very slow to connect Futures Forum ? ..bot more gold at 609

hk ab 15:04 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
seek, maybe we need to sell it down to those points....

hong kong seek 15:02 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
added some core at 608 ..limit buy at 605 and 602 ..
also load some Jan 640 C at 1.9 ...
shopping day for next few weeks...

hk ab 14:58 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
I even can't load the charts.... btw, gold breaking 610 floor now.

hong kong seek 14:50 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
yes ar !! i use censored..quite slow ....

hk ab 14:48 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
seek, do you still have problems with internet on charts and quotes lately?

hong kong seek 14:45 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
AB--my first bet on gold is 607 and 605 602 600...

hk ab 14:40 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Here we go, welcome 60x

hong kong seek 14:38 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
need to ask NT for more details of his plan...LOL

hk ab 14:35 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
the momentum of gold may not wane yet, sell small here may work to welcome any 60x....

hong kong seek 14:09 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
any hint for gold tonight?

Syd 13:36 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Bill Goss is probably in the toilet being sick

Treasurys drop sharply after strong Dec payrolls report. Dec payrolls up 167k vs 115k consensus. 10-yr note off 1/2 point to yield 4.68%. Short end under most pressure, 2-yr note yield up 9 BP to 4.80%.

hk ab 12:59 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
nt, would you exit those longs from 616 in such case?

hong kong nt 11:25 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
SEEK -- we may see some more downside to 60x, suggest to buy 2 portions of 600 put at 2.0 or lower and long 1 portion spot at 60x. good trades...

Vienna GD 07:31 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 07:02 GMT January 5, 2007
GD, the HK gold stocks are not advancing at all......

ab not really surprised about that ... 2007/01 maybe already in liquidiation mode ... remember what i expect from the beginning of 2007/01-02. BTW also us G&S stocks didn't recover yesterday.
I think this is/was the first BIG selling/liquidation wave. Again, as already pointed out earlier: take a look at 1998/1999 for the jpy and then add 8.6. Near highs often volatility increases. So bigger moves in both direction might occur.
Right here were we are NOW: at some point we will see consolidation und maybe a rebound. How strong this rebound will be - no idea. BUT the tone for 2007/01ff will remain down i think.
Precious metals ... will also suffer in the first part of this liquidiation process, where the worst is yet to come (!!! the broads !!!); but i think PMs are among the first to snap back.
So my strategy is to preserve money and never to have big long positions either in the metals or in the stocks. Actually prefer to take st profits rather than betting on strong upmove - so far.
There's only one thing that might change the st/mt bias of PMs: once fear comes into the market. Think of HF troubles or other big companies breaking down or gwb sending more troops to iraq.
And again and last but not least ... closely watching copper pays!
Off for work now ... gl & gt and DYOD!

hk ab 07:02 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
GD, the HK gold stocks are not advancing at all......

Vienna GD 06:22 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
According to ifr the USD/JPY fell to a low of 118.33 while the EUR/JPY fell from a high of 155.79 to as low as 154.68 without an appreciable bounce. That was nothing compared to the steep falls in the GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY where the JPY buying was furious and relentless. All of the aforementioned crosses including the EUR/JPY are in danger of making key outside week reversals lower if current levels hold into the US close later today. The market is now debating whether the JPY strength is due to profit taking on carry trades sparked by a steep fall in commodity prices and ahead of the BOJ meeting on Jan 18 or whether it is the beginning of the end of the wild popularity of carry trades.

Vienna GD 06:16 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Vienna GD 12:11 GMT January 3, 2007
Also added xxxjpy short yesterday night ... no market goes straight to da moon ... not even from da creature rigged jpy-crosses.

Just closed most of those shorts for a ton of pips.
Think we will see some consolidation in front of nfp numbers.
also closed usdjpy shorts and audusd and nzdusd shorts.
Almost flat now. Except gold and silver positions and still a few xxxjpy possies.

hong kong seek 04:54 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
NT--any strategy for gold option? many good trades to u

hong kong nt 04:42 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
GD -- do you think we may see short term gold range 605-630? GT

hong kong seek 03:35 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
AB--in my view , XAG may reach 11.4 before another upside trend..

hk ab 03:27 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
seek, any thoughts for today?
I think the inverse SHS on XAG in 4 hrs should work and 12.40 still looks very good to buy there. BUT I wonder if we can get there (seeing 10% chance).

Syd 02:01 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Copper futures traded on Shanghai Futures Exchange sharply lower, tracking losses in LME 3-month copper in past 3 sessions; but "support (for LME 3-month) at $5,000-$5,500 looks to be strong, and we're likely to see lowest point for the year in the first quarter," says Cai Luoyi, senior analyst at China International Futures (Shanghai) Co. Adds, local end users aren't keen to stockpile, even though prices declined sharply, given current bearish sentiment. Most widely-held February 2007 contract at CNY55,200/ton, down 4.7%, near 5% limit-down. LME 3-month at $5,778/ton, up $68 from Thursday's PM kerb

hk ab 01:54 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
XAU and XAG still looks very cheap here.

hk ab 01:41 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
after yen, it should be the revenge of gold and silver.

hk ab 00:36 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
some vigorous chinese buying again.... XAG 12.65-12.54 during Asian.

Syd 00:09 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
US Oil Trust (USO, proxy for oil) is accelerating lower on the break of support at the falling trendline from late Oct (currently at $49.00), tumbling to levels not seen in a year but testing support at the falling support line since early Oct (currently at 47.10/30). Though risk is rising for a sharp snapback and a $2.50/bbl bounce, the bigger picture downside pattern is "not complete" and suggests at least another few weeks of downward prices ahead (though may not be as sharp as the last few weeks),seasonal charts point sharply lower into late Feb, also suggesting that a more important bottom is at least another few weeks away. For now, with no signs of a near term bottom, too risky to try buying for a countertrend bounce and given the sharply oversold market, too late to short.