Forex Futures Forum Archive for 01/14/2007

Syd 23:47 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs put out warnings that sterling could fall in 2007. Goldman Sachs has told some investors to take out a "short" position against the pound on derivatves markets: A client note stated that the "UK remains the largest current account deficit country in Western Europe, with a substantially overvalued currency—about 13% on a trade-weighted basis." Lehman Brothers' U.K. economist Alan Castle is saying that the pound would fall to $1.82 in 2007 and to $1.68 by the end of 2008, amidst concerns about the property market and Britain's current account deficit, which could "could widen to 4% of GDP in 2008."

While central bankers had been making sterling "a favourite choice for global central banks switching reserves out of dollars over the last two years," now, the British Office for National Statistics shows, private investors are the main foreign sterling buyers.

hk ab 23:34 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
after those chinese traders who bought from last week to take profit, gold and silver will both be an even better buy.
20 dma.....

hk ab 23:18 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
nt, wave 3 at full work now.

Mtl JP 16:47 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
fwiw: Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) “China’s banking regulator urged banks to stop lending for stock investments and to recall any outstanding share loans, according to a document obtained by Bloomberg News.” (Josephine Lau)

hk ab 15:10 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
nt, that's what in my mind too. So, basically. I see wave 3 starts here after Russian rushed to buy.

Will load more when Mon morning starts. No return trip.

hong kong nt 14:41 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
AB -- about gold, in 1980s, 1oz gold is one month salary of a high school teacher, nowadays, it costs 5-10oz gold to hire a high school teacher. (How affordable/cheap is gold today!) Try to plot a graph of gold price (USD)/M3 (USA) vs time..fwiw..

Tonbridge AL 13:49 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Inflation. what inflation. we all know from our daily lives that there is plenty of the stuff around. but by Government statistics (and yes we know they are fiddled and seasonally adjusted etc) but they are what Government use then there is no inflation. If you take UK inflation since Blair has been in power Government calculated cpi is 15% so I ask what exactly are you expecting in terms of inflation levels and on what basis will that happen when the forces of deflation from China and India are still with us let alone what most analysts consider to be at the least a slow down in world growth if not a recession in certain countries which in turn has the implication of lessening inflation. If you think the force of inflation is coming from energy then it hasn't happened so far and and lastly Gold has been a not very good store of value vs inflation over the years. Just all imho of course

hk ab 13:41 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
I think, once inflation kicks in, gold could well be dragged up by the real demand.

Tonbridge AL 11:48 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Feb Gold $626.9 - Inside week in lower half of previous week. Bound by the mov avs of 20 and 50wma $610.9 below and closed at 10wma $626.3.
Clearly the market is in a triangle of a triangle.
Last year finaished at $638 and opened this year $637.8 having ranged $647.2 - 603. Stochs and RSI are neutral and momentum is still on the negative side with ADX at 13 coiling out in Elliott terms ABC patterns
Gold denominated in Euros 483.7 probably needs a close above Eur500 or below Eur475 to trend for 25 points otherwise its a sell hi buy lo responsive trading mkt within a Eur450-525 range and an inside range of Eur 475-500.
The only thing holding Gold at the moment as far as I can see is the concept by traders that the Golding Pig will bring in demand but surely the Pig is only given as a good luck to newly weds and on impending births so is there really any pent up demand that has not already been sourced. Remember Gold is a negative carry trade and there is a huge amount of subjective views about Gold with little in the way of objective reasoning. Yes it is possible that last 3 months has been about accumulation in the chart and I certainly count 2600 buyers vs 1300 sellers with Eur476 as the high volume and pivotal level whereas in $ trading $609 (Basis Feb futures) is the high volume and shows 2100 sellers vs only 400 buyers. So In reality for me it means that Gold right now is showing mixed signals & is just a proxy currency. Therefore trade it as such

hk ab 11:21 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Just wonder if Dr. Q sees the gold has turned around or not...

hk ab 03:18 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
nt, that means chase @here is not suggested?

houston st 02:17 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   

Martin Luther King Holiday Schedule CBOT/CME

The following is the holiday schedule for Monday January 15th. All times are given in CST.

CBOT

Friday Jan. 12th

Financial will be closing early at 1pm
Metals will close early at 12:30pm
Equities and ags will close normally

Sunday Jan 14th

Exchange will be closed for night trading.

Monday Jan 15th

Exchange will be closed

There will be a regular opening for CBOT for Monday night trading for trade date Jan 16th.

CME

Friday Jan 12th

Currencies and interest rates close early at 3:15pm

Sunday Jan 14th

Regular open for all products for trade date January 16th.

Monday Jan 15th

Equities will close at 10:30am
Interest rates and currencies will close at 12 noon
Nymex and Comex products will close at 4:15pm

There will be a regular 5pm opening for Monday evening.