Forex Futures Forum Archive for 04/06/2007

Vienna GD 07:32 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Additional to all those nice posts recently ... here's the latest of richard russel:

From Richard Russell yesterday:

We do have trends -- trends in the economy, trends in stocks, trends in everything that is tradeable. And what do trends have to do with the future? Well we can say that a trend will extend into the future -- until that trend halts and reverses. The problem, of course, is that a given trend may extend a week into the future or six months or five years into the future. But trends are 80 percent of all we've got in investing so don't knock them. After all, they're better than nothing.

Well, there is one other phenomena that I want to talk about, and we call them bull and bear markets. The thing about a big bull or a big bear market is that they both end in exhaustion. And to become exhausted, a trend has to overdue itself on both the upside or on the downside.

I'm thinking of the bull market in gold. Unfortunately, I can't tell you when, but somewhere ahead the gold bull market is going to get "crazy," it's going to "blow its top" and end in exhaustion. It's going to become so wild and speculative that you'll just shake your head and mumble that "I've never seen anything like this." Yes it's going to happen somewhere ahead -- it's going to happen sure as shootin', but censored it, I can't tell you when.

Since there are always bull markets operating somewhere in something, why do I choose gold as an example? I pick gold because gold is the most emotional of all items. The gold-bugs love gold. The honest money crowd loves gold. The anti-inflationists love gold. The government hates gold. The central bankers despise gold. The bankers and the inflationists abhor gold. The yellow metal is loved and it is hated. A gold bull market brings out elements of both fear and greed. The fiat money crowd is fearful when gold advances. The honest money bunch love it when gold advances. Gold brings out the emotions like no other tradeable item. When gold finally goes into its third speculative phase, there'll be nothing like it. It will be a spectacle to remember.

Vienna GD 07:09 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
hong kong 06:48 ... monday was full moon ... down until april 17 +/- a few days is in the cards, sorry stars - but i'm pretty sure that there is a stronger underlying force active actually.

Also Mahendra expects gold going to 700 within the next couple of weeks.

I think any dips here can be bought, mt and lt.

hong kong 06:48 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
VIENNA -- regarding to the moon cycle, which days in April represent the up and down phase in gold market? thanks

Vienna GD 06:47 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
hong kong 05:52 ... most important $HUI/ ETF GDX, although GDX is somewhat suppressed (manipulated) ... behave similar to USO oil ETF ... rigged, misleading ... never sure whether the stock is plain and simple suppressed or whether is is just suppressed for accumulation for da big boyz: "oh sorry we just weren't able anymore to keep em down ... hehehe".

Only follow NYSE, NAZ or AMEX stocks ... changes from time to time, as there are times when individual stocks lead or lagg.
For example until a few days earlier FCX was leading the pack for a week or two, but actually that is again of the past.

I prefer to watch the temporary leaders (today X, Y, Z - tomorrow A, B, C) of the whole group and not to be fixed to single stocks or majors. I follow the stocks on top of the list.
If majority of temporary leaders (over a few days, 15min chart) start to lagg or underperform something is wrong.
I think out of 10 trading days appr. 7-9 days provide indications for what it to come. Traps pretty seldom. But those stocks are also VERY dependant of the broads. IF the broads underperform often also those stocks underperform - except there is/was a strong move in the metals - so one has to differ, what is sometimes a bit tricky! Strongest messages when G&S stocks and the broads diverge!

Juwels: AUY, NAK, SA, EGO, ...
Frontrunners: silver dependant stocks like GRS, PAAS, SSRI, HL
If above mentioned stocks close strong - most often a strong move in the metals or a continuation move in the stocks is in the making.

Majors: ABX, NEM, GG, KGC, AU, ...

Latecomers: south african stocks like GFI, HMY, MDG, ...

Manipulated/depressed stocks: ABX, NEM ...

Lazy juniors/small caps complex which smells blood only when there is a true rally to come: BMD, RIC, GBN, ... there are many

Stock of famous trader Jim Sinclair: TRE ... actually lagging

Also i always also consider audusd, nzdusd and usdcad and jpy crosses.

I'll try to add a bit more details in the future.

Off for work. gl & gt

Vienna GD 06:07 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 03:03 GMT April 6, 2007
Dublin 00:07 GMT April 6, 2007
shanghai bc 23:50 GMT April 5, 2007

Wonderful replies ... very wise words ... nice small treasuries ... eye openers ... there's nothing to add anymore ... it is a pleasure to have you here from time to time - thanks!!!

hong kong 05:52 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
GD -- which gold stocks/funds do you usually monitor? good trades

Syd 04:25 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
When trends are very smooth they become easy to find, and this can cause problems. Technical analysts quickly identify these moves and alert others and this will drive these moves even further. However, when the market is well invested in the trend it takes more news in the direction of the move to perpetuate them. This means that even the lack of supporting moves can cause trouble, and there are of course traders that will attempt to end the move and benefit from the running of stop-losses. Our systems consider trends that are extended under low volatility conditions as becoming riskier as time passes. The employment figures on Friday are occurring at a time when the market volumes are low with the Easter and Passover holidays. There is the risk of a sharp move and the cycles expect these currencies to weaken during most of the day, so we prefer to hold reduced long positions.

fxc

Halifax CB 03:03 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
NYC gone 17:31 GMT April 5, 2007
All you have to do is look at early records of stock markets - most libraries have microfiched or comperterized copies of old newspapers, and see which stocks listed way back whenever are still listed today.
For a bit of fun, here is a LINK to the historical Dow Jones companies(which unfortunately doesn't include the weightings, which change as stocks go up and down), poke through some of the holdings and see how many disappear altogether, how many crashed and were bought out or taken private; and of course there's some that did spectacularly well - remembering all the time these weren't just average companies, but the cream selected after pretty rigourous research.
To mimic the DJ performace, you have to change the composition of the portfolio as they would (if it was a real holding) But if you are going to compare this to commodities, then you also have to allow the commodities trader to trade in and out. So the end result depends on the quality of the trader and his analysis, not on anything particularly magic about stocks (or commodities).

And BTW - if you visit the PF you'll see I'm anything but a goldbug; it's just a great trading instrument in volatile times. Trading gold paid really well back when I started college in times like these, under the Jimminy Catarrh administration). the only things I would ever consider buying and holding are art, books, and education; but that's because I enjoy them (although properly bought art can return huge amounts of money, and the ROI for a good education can't be beat). But in general, like BC and Ecclesiastes point out, to everything there is a season....

Dublin 00:07 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Gold bashers are showing up more and more as it is apparent the the dollar is close to being doomed. Value of fiat in history always ends as zero. Value of gold is constant. Make your 1000%, but what will the value of it be when the dollar is worthless? Your government does not want you to own gold, which is reason enough in itself to get all you can. Modern "currency" is the greatest fraud ever perpetrated. Good luck all!