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Forex Futures Forum Archive for 06/1/2009
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dc CB 21:12 GMT June 1, 2009
Bank regulators have expressed concern about letting private-equity firms gobble up too many pieces of this vital part of the banking system
NY Post reports a wave of bank failures this year is expected to create a feeding frenzy among would-be buyers, with private-equity cos likely edged out as relatively healthy banks swoop in to pick the bones of their battered, smaller brethren. While the FDIC has a list of more than 300 so-called problem banks, Phil Colaco, a managing director at investment banking firm McColl Partners, estimates there are as many as 780 mostly small banks that are in jeopardy of going under over the next 24 months thanks to souring loans eating into their meager deposit bases. While many of the bank failures from this year have been soaked up by private-equity cos like, sources said bank regulators and the FDIC have expressed concern about letting private-equity cos gobble up too many pieces of this vital part of the banking system. With that in mind, the FDIC, which is typically appointed to oversee liquidations of banks and thrifts, is considering encouraging healthier banks to purchase part or all of a troubled institution's deposits and bank branches.
dc CB 21:11 GMT June 1, 2009
Troubled bank loans hit a record high -
NY Times reports overall loan quality at American banks is the worst in at least a quarter century, and the quality of loans is deteriorating at the fastest pace ever, according to statistics released this week by the FDIC. The report highlighted that even as the government and major banks have scrambled to deal with the impaired securities the banks own, the institutions have been plagued by an unprecedented volume of old-fashioned loans going bad. Of the entire book of loans and leases at all banks â€” totaling $7.7 trillion at the end of March â€” 7.75% were showing some sign of distress, the F.D.I.C. reported. That was up from 6.9% at the end of 2008 and from 4.1% a year earlier. It also exceeded the previous high of 7.26% set in 1990 and 1991, during the last crisis in American banking.
dc CB 21:04 GMT June 1, 2009
Black Swan fund makes a big bet on inflation
WSJ reports a hedge fund co that reaped huge rewards betting against the market last year is about to open a fund premised on another wager: that the massive stimulus efforts of global governments will lead to hyperinflation. The co, Universa Investments L.P., is known for its ties to gloomy investor Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the 2007 bestseller "The Black Swan," which describes the impact of extreme events on the world and financial markets. Unlike last year's sudden market implosion, inflation isn't an unimaginable event that few currently anticipate. In fact, many fear inflation right now amid government efforts to goose the economy. Universa's bet, however, is that inflation will reach levels few expect. By opening the inflation fund, Universa is trying to capitalize on a wave of investor demand for its products, which when they're right can protect investors from extreme market moves. The new strategy, designed by Mr. Spitznagel, aims to post big gains if inflation and interest rates take off as they did in the 1970s. Universa will invest in options tied to commodities such as corn, crude oil and copper, as well as options on stocks such as oil drillers and gold miners. "We think these things are going to see massive volatility," Mr. Taleb said in an interview. The fund will also bet against Treasury bonds, which tend to weaken in inflationary environments.
dc CB 20:48 GMT June 1, 2009
Taxpayer underwater...of course.
Fed mortgage efforts prove costly.
WSJ reports the U.S. Federal Reserve's program to keep mortgage rates low by buying securities and Treasury bonds so far has been costly and seems to be having a fleeting impact. An analysis of the timing of the Fed's purchases of mortgage-backed securities by J.P. Morgan Chase shows the Fed is "under water" on its portfolio by about 10%, and it would have to take about $5 billion in losses if it were to mark its portfolio to the market. The Fed has spent about $2,500 per borrower, by J.P. Morgan's analysis -- more than it costs a typical mortgage borrower to refinance their debt. Higher fees and adjustments based on a borrower's credit score or home's value have been an impediment to borrowers looking to refinance a mortgage, damping the refinancing wave the Fed hoped for, analysts say.
dc CB 20:32 GMT June 1, 2009
Briefing.com: 1 minute after cash close.
Federal Reserve outlines criteria it will use to evaluate applications to redeem U.S. Treasury capital from participants in Supervisory Capital Assessment Program
The Federal Reserve Board outlined the criteria it will use to evaluate applications to redeem U.S. Treasury capital from the 19 bank holding companies (BHC) that participated in the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP). Redemption approvals for an initial set of these large bank holding companies are expected to be announced during the week of June 8. Applications will be evaluated periodically thereafter. Any banking organization wishing to redeem U.S. Treasury capital must first obtain approval from its primary federal supervisor, which then forwards approved applications to the Treasury Department. Any BHC seeking to redeem U.S. Treasury capital must demonstrate an ability to access the long-term debt markets without reliance on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (TLGP), and must successfully demonstrate access to public equity markets. In addition, the Federal Reserve's review of a BHC's application to redeem U.S. Treasury capital will include consideration of the following: Whether a BHC can redeem its Treasury capital and remain in a position to continue to fulfill its role as an intermediary that facilitates lending to creditworthy households and businesses; Whether, after redeeming its Treasury capital, a BHC will be able to maintain capital levels that are consistent with supervisory expectations; Whether a BHC will be able to continue to serve as a source of financial and managerial strength and support to its subsidiary bank(s) after the redemption; and Whether a BHC and its bank subsidiaries will be able to meet its ongoing funding requirements and its obligations to counterparties while reducing reliance on government capital and the TLGP. Finally, all BHCs must have a robust longer-term capital assessment and management process geared toward achieving and maintaining a prudent level and composition of capital commensurate with the BHC's business activities and firm-wide risk profile.
dc CB 20:27 GMT June 1, 2009
American Express announces $500 mln common stock offering
Co announced that it has commenced a public offering of $500 million of its common stock for sale to the public. American Express will also grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional $75 million of its common stock. The company will use the capital raised through the equity offering for general corporate purposes which may include, subject to regulatory approval, the partial funding of a repurchase of $3.4 billion of preferred shares issued to the U.S. Treasury as part of the Capital Purchase Program (CPP).
dc CB 20:14 GMT June 1, 2009
S&P closed above 200dayMA. this will bring more buying .
Banks will use this to raise more capital -----so far successfully using Free Tax Dollars to trade the market high enough to force Money Managers back into the market. When the end of June comes, no one will want to be underinvested at the end of the 2nd Quarter/1st Half. IMHO
JPM JP Morgan Chase confirms it will raise $5 bln in common equity to satisfy a supervisory condition for TARP repayment
Co announced that it intends to raise $5 bln in common equity to satisfy a supervisory condition that the largest bank holding companies redeeming TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) preferred capital demonstrate access to the equity capital markets. While approval has not been granted, the company believes that upon completion of this capital raise it will have satisfied the criteria for fully redeeming the TARP preferred capital and expects to do so before the end of June. JPM expects to have Tier One Capital of approximately $118 bln or 9.3% and Tier One Common of approximately $93 bln or 7.3% at the end of the second quarter, after the capital raise and the TARP preferred capital redemption. The company also expects to maintain its extremely strong capital ratios, even in the event of a more highly stressed environment over the next two years.
kl kl 20:11 GMT June 1, 2009
ok out another 1/4 8705 abd rest stop profit 8733...will reshort more later...now HSI33 Pop 500 again for my earger ninjas to attack?? 19188.....no fear days are here again...fielss of dream are here again...soon all the currency...carry trade
GVI Forex john 20:11 GMT June 1, 2009
Click on Hyperlinks below for Updated Charts
London Mamun 20:09 GMT June 1, 2009
Rally is not bad for guerrilla attack
forgot to sell gold
SNP TOUCH 949 now to fall back 914
kl kl 20:00 GMT June 1, 2009
me too.....short Dow 8852 out 1/2 8817...rest at 8840...maybe Bears are trapped proper but their time to seek revange is ever coming closer.....Happy blow off rally 1-2 more days....need to short fat juicy stuff......
London Mamun 19:59 GMT June 1, 2009
closed snp at 943
GVI Forex john 19:54 GMT June 1, 2009
London Mamun 19:45 GMT June 1, 2009
sold again snp at 946
London Mamun 19:19 GMT June 1, 2009
stop aapl at 139
London Mamun 19:17 GMT June 1, 2009
any way snp goes i am safe
closed at 940
closed JPM at 36.55
dc CB 18:59 GMT June 1, 2009
Goldman Says To Expect Another $200 Billion In Equity Issuance
Posted by Tyler Durden at 11:26 AM
For all who are curious as to the mystery behind the SPOOs buying force, I refer you to a research report published by none other than Government Sachs, titled: "Equity issuance: $100 billion YTD; we expect another $200 billion." Of course, ramping up futures does miracles for overpriced stock follow-ons (especially with GS as lead udnerwriter).
dc CB 18:55 GMT June 1, 2009
The Mysterious Purchaser Running Out Of Cash
Posted by Tyler Durden at 1:41 PM
After an explosion in early market volume for both cash and futures, the "buyer" seems to be running out of cash as the market has flatlined, which apparently has served the necessary and sufficient purposes on the day of the biggest industrial company's bankruptcy in history. And as sellers anticipate taxpayers to buy a few more trillion shares of 100x P/E stocks over the next few months, they have remained firmly out of the picture.
London Mamun 18:54 GMT June 1, 2009
sold MS at 29.93 stop 31
London Mamun 18:53 GMT June 1, 2009
jpm stop at entry
London Mamun 18:37 GMT June 1, 2009
closed 1/2 snp at 944 and dax at 5130 rest at stop
London Mamun 18:25 GMT June 1, 2009
add snp at 947
dc CB 18:06 GMT June 1, 2009
Bloomberg -- Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co., the third-largest U.S. life insurer by 2008 sales, has bought gold for the first time in 152 years to hedge against further asset declines.
â€śGold just seems to make sense; itâ€™s a store of value,â€ť Chief Executive Officer Edward Zore said in an interview following his comments at a conference hosted by Standard & Poorâ€™s in Brooklyn. â€śIn the Depression, gold did very, very well.â€ť Northwestern Mutual has accumulated about $400 million in gold, and Zore said the price could double or even rise fivefold if the economy continues to weaken. Gold gained 10 percent last month, the most since November. The commodity has more than tripled since 2000, rising for eight straight years. Gold futures for August delivery slipped 30 cents to $980 at 11:47 a.m. in New York. â€śThe downside risk is limited, but the upside is large,â€ť Zore said. â€śWe have stocks in our portfolio that lost 95 percent.â€ť Gold â€śis not going down to $90.â€ť Policyholder owned Northwestern Mutual, based in Milwaukee, ranks thirds by 2008 life insurance premiums according to data from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. The data excludes annuities.
London Mamun 17:24 GMT June 1, 2009
sold aapl at 139.55 stop 140.35
London Mamun 17:01 GMT June 1, 2009
sold ftse at 4495 stop 4535 and snp at 945 stop 953
holding dax with stop 5175 and italy index stop 20635
jpm stop at 38.35
Vienna GD 16:45 GMT June 1, 2009
Richard Nolles latest - for the (still) optimists among you ... LINK
London Mamun 16:41 GMT June 1, 2009
nt, gm same as you.
long LVS AT 10.70
hk nt 16:36 GMT June 1, 2009
If you gauge Hang Seng's degree of overbought based on P/E and NAV, present stock market doesn't look overbought yet. If you check weekly and monthly chart, there are little signal of overbought too.
Too much money leaking from huge U.S. treasury market which would bring irrational exuberance.
hk nt 15:56 GMT June 1, 2009
MAMUM -- I just buy small amount GM to put under my own retirement fund. Hope GM could have transformed into a more profitable business model in next 5-10 years. For speculative short term buy, LVS maybe good candidate.
London Mamun 15:23 GMT June 1, 2009
long gm at.90
London Mamun 15:14 GMT June 1, 2009
Will call you now
hk nt 15:10 GMT June 1, 2009
buy some GM@0.8....
hk nt 15:09 GMT June 1, 2009
Dow may rally to 10000-10500 in coming weeks
I treat this rally as "dot com bubble -- no support of profit", just follow the trend obediently until it is proven otherwise.
Vienna GD 14:55 GMT June 1, 2009
bot sept SPY puts (considerable) below 1 ... still bottom fishing
London Mamun 14:49 GMT June 1, 2009
sold JPM at 3745 stop 38.35
London Mamun 14:46 GMT June 1, 2009
sold dow at 8698 stop 8735
London Mamun 14:42 GMT June 1, 2009
sold Italy 30 at 20525 stop 20655
sold dax at 5145 stop 5185
sold gbp/yen at 158.15
Vienna GD 12:05 GMT June 1, 2009
nt - this rally is based on an increasing number of unemployed and lost pensions and companies going bancrupt in coming months - think of masses in the streets and fascist right wing parties to get lots of new voters.
It's a matter of a quarter or maximum half a year before you will see burning cars and houses and revolts in the street.
Mark my words.
Maybe goldman and nero can engineer another rally - but it is the last before those bankers and robbers will burn.
Vienna GD 11:36 GMT June 1, 2009
nt - you are dreamin of warm ice.
No offence - just my first thought after i saw your post.
That would be another 25% - based on a rally which was orchestrated by da boyz on a thin friday and a holiday monday based on the biggest bancrupty in american history.
nt - get real!
hk nt 11:26 GMT June 1, 2009
see this rally may bring Hang Seng Index to P/E 20-21 i.e. 24000-25000 in coming weeks. many small investors are fighting the trend with both hands.
GVI Forex john 09:46 GMT June 1, 2009
Click on Hyperlinks below for Updated Charts
KL KL 08:37 GMT June 1, 2009
I have assembled all my Funds into one spot now....which cherry to pick to short is tough when one is limited to 3....Tomorrow HSI33...above 19000, DOW then FTSE then Audusd above 81......GBPUSD...Eurusd......GOLD above 1010.....If I average up and held for 6 months...I think I will be in front. Ninja is in Genuine mood now...the pain to bears trapped in this blow off not hurting yet.....perhaps a few more days like 1-2 more.....So all is well eh....?? gl gt all
Vienna GD 07:42 GMT June 1, 2009
Market is happy that GM is out of the way - and expects healthy new companies - new GM and Opel.
With so many good news - why not rally and break all TA levels?
If i were boss of an investment company or a fulltime trader i would (setup a group to) analyse when it would be the best time(s) to manipulate markets. Say to checkout ALL holidays across the planet, esp. those near weakends. And to setup an accordingly strategy.
Vienna GD 07:37 GMT June 1, 2009
Yen is a dollar story for the moment.
btw some of the yen-crosses are soaring as expected - see dollarbloc related crosses.
eurjpy and chfjpy ... bit strange yes.
London Mamun 07:33 GMT June 1, 2009
rally on GM dead body ?
yen getting more strength
not doing any trade today
will back later
London Mamun 07:28 GMT June 1, 2009
London Mamun 07:27 GMT June 1, 2009
snp may touch 949
Vienna GD 07:24 GMT June 1, 2009
Once %K in FTSE is taken out ... another huge leg higher i think!
Vienna GD 07:23 GMT June 1, 2009
LOL ... first sold the spike close to 5140, at the same time went short ... and covered immediately after da spike came back down ... now that were some fast bucks.
Wonder whether they will correct it. Also those who's stops were run close to 5140 ... i bet my shirt they won't the later ones.
Vienna GD 07:20 GMT June 1, 2009
yes mamun - thin markets are much easier to be manipulated!
Fridays last few minutes + todays holidays in part of europe (Pfingsten) ... perfect environment for da legalized robbers.
Those squeezes before close and those million of gaps they produced last couple of months tells us all about the inner strength of this market. But that doesn't change the trend of the market. At least not yet. We have to be smarter - that's all what counts.
I remember well that the highs timewise should have happened already in late 2006/early 2007 - yet they still managed to drive the market higher. And to mislead many.
Same this time - they can buy again time and again new highs. Think today also FTSE will HAVE to make new highs - to get in as many sheeple as possible.
hahahahah just sold that spike in the dax x-fold .... hope they don't correct it.
London Mamun 07:04 GMT June 1, 2009
Market getting strength every weak point.
Vienna GD 06:54 GMT June 1, 2009
And da boyz are AGAIN .... NOT ... listening to those recommending to short all the time ... and instead do the opposite: make new highs and SQUEEZE all those shorts.
Today many of the shorts will feel the pain.
Now 1000 dollar question is: how high will this market, in new high area, go - until it is finally finished?
In other words - how long to remain long this market and where's the best place to place the next limit sell order?
Time-wise i would say, as already mentioned earlier, it is somewhere in mid of june until end of june - yet price wise?
dc CB 04:17 GMT June 1, 2009
CNBC owned by GE ....ideas brought to life.
dc CB 04:14 GMT June 1, 2009
so who does CNBC send to cover Tim my Boy in China.
Steve LIESman. lol
Syd 03:39 GMT June 1, 2009
Spot gold at $982.75/oz, up $3.15 since Friday's NY close; Friday's 2.2% rally broke key resistance at $967 and gold now looks set to test $1,000 level, says ScotiaMocatta in report. "There is one sign of caution however, as the RSI for gold has now hit overbought territory, as it did in February when it last broke $1000. Continue playing the uptrend but be aware that the market may be set to turn shortly," says report.
Syd 02:06 GMT June 1, 2009
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