GVI Forex Blog 20:38 GMT March 11, 2010
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21:00 GMT- Mar 11 (global-view.com) Trading was range bound over most of the session Thursday. Data released did not have much of an impact on prices over the session. The immediate focus into the weekend will be...
Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Range Trading Session
Syd 20:27 GMT March 11, 2010
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Today’s markets are being somewhat roiled by news of accelerating inflation in China, leading to worries that China will have to tighten monetary policy. But, you know, that’s not what China is supposed to do in this situation.http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/11/chinas-swan-song/
KL KL 19:45 GMT March 11, 2010
GD
Good to see you popping by.....
SYD,GVI
Always good to see you post and keeping this site alive,
Wonder where is mamun...... don't rest too long or hide in the corner. The time is coming ...come out and fight the wolfs and crooks.
Todays market is called a pip killer market....its like still water and hardly moving......lots of tech and financials in my zone but have not pull trigger....... Still polishing my sword. Occasional stries on APPLE seems to work but indices and gold is troubling me.
GVI Forex Blog 19:38 GMT March 11, 2010
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Risk markets took a breather last night. US equities fell at the open, but then rebounded, as they digested the earlier China inflation report which raised the prospect of tightening there, as well as the US trade report showing imports fell.
Forex Research - Morning Report
GVI Forex Blog 19:38 GMT March 11, 2010
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Risk markets took a breather last night. US equities fell at the open, but then rebounded, as they digested the earlier China inflation report which raised the prospect of tightening there, as well as the US trade report showing imports fell.
Forex Research - Morning Report
GVI Forex Blog 16:50 GMT March 11, 2010
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Plenty of data and comments kept the price action choppy during the New York morning, although the greenback has maintained its mildly softer tone against the European pairs.
Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)
GVI Forex Blog 16:05 GMT March 11, 2010
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Mar 11 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: On Friday, the Far East sees Japanese Industrial Output. In Europe, Eurozone industrial Production is due. In North America, Canadian employment is due. The U.S. releases Retail Sales, the University of Michigan survey and Business Inventories.
GVI Forex- Data Outlook for March 12, 2010
GVI Forex Blog 14:59 GMT March 11, 2010
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Recent bearish price action on spot gold, a daily chart of which is shown, has prompted a correction back down to the long-term uptrend support line. This bearish correction occurs right after price
Chart of the Day - 3/11/2010 – GOLD
Vienna GD 14:52 GMT March 11, 2010
Guess vampir squid FIRST will establish a major shorts washout. That didn't happen yet. But could be that we are very close - and that it will last about 2 month.
Thereafter planets (grand cross in late july/early august) will hit this house of cards with rocks not seen since decades.
At least that's what I see in the cards.
Unlikely though - but could be wrong.
GVI Forex john 13:20 GMT March 11, 2010
Total Open Interest in the EURO FX futures fell to 159,145 contracts Wednesday, down another 13,468. As noted, this is more an indication of the March contract maturity than changing sentiment.
Syd 12:23 GMT March 11, 2010
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'It's Going to Be Inflation Everywhere:' Deputy 'Doom'
Roubini has gained notoriety as a "Dr. Doom" who predicted the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007.
While Motianey's forecast was not as dour as those customary from his boss at RBG, he did say the times ahead in fact will be more challenging if the economy isn't able to create inflation and suffers deflation instead.
"It's going to be inflation everywhere and it's going to happen really through the weakness of the US dollar," he said. "Then inflation in those other parts of the world that are expecting appreciating currencies, they're going to inflate as well because that's the way you ultimately correct this."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35795076
GVI Forex Blog 11:52 GMT March 11, 2010
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The euro steadied against the dollar and the yen in quiet trade on Thursday, recovering from earlier falls after strong Chinese data fuelled expectations of possible further monetary tightening by Beijing.
FOREX NEWS-Euro steadies vs dollar, yen; SNB awaited
europe johnny 10:57 GMT March 11, 2010
Cliff Droke
March 10, 2010
I received an interesting e-mail the other day that sheds some light on the current state of investor psychology. He writes, "I hear from a hedge fund and analyst friend that most major cycle work tops out from this coming week thru April and [he says] it's THE top. One he sites is the Bradley model which shows a devastating drop beginning after next week into October of this year to roughly Dow 6500. Looking back all the way to 1900 chart of market I've never seen a major top without breadth deteriorating for many months or even a year or more before a major bear."
GVI Forex Blog 10:45 GMT March 11, 2010
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11:00 GMT- Mar 11 (global-view.com) Trading seems to have gotten off to a cautious start Thursday heading into North American trading hours. A key question for day-traders may be whether the EURUSD can...
Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Steady Trade into Data
Vienna GD 09:50 GMT March 11, 2010
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Against all odds ("sell all the rallies" almost all the time ... think of one-trick-ponnies") last predicted turning point was a bottom and we went up as projected.
With the perma bears thereafter silently having vanished thru the backdoor.
These turns work since a year like clockwork. With since March last year just 3 inversions in 26 projections.
So here you have the next one:
Monday is new moon. It's the eye of the hurricane. UCT turn is either wednesday (according to Puetzs book) next week or tomorrow Friday (according to Puetzs newsletter).
So we have approximately a week in between which the high will be seen.
In between the UCT turn and the lunar turn there could well be an increase of volatility and magnitude of swings.
Then we go down into end of March/early April where the next turns sits.
According to the book it should be a VERY sharp and devasting selloff. Though I have my doubts. Expect the SHARP and DEVASTING selloff instead after mid May into early August.
Back to the projection: Keep in mind that we could see an inversion and only proper stop loss management will protect against that case.
Accordingly strategy is: sell new highs, have a reasonable stop and consider to add one the trend south is clear.
Above strategy is confirmed widely in TA - as most markets are either oversold or overbought now, also in the more longterm timeframes.
And finally once mamun comes out again with his mantra "sell all the rallies" - another confirmation that we turn.
McHugh also has almost all markets close to topping with just a small v left. If the DOW makes new highs above 10725 his count is obsolete.
He also has several turndates in coming days and week adding to the likelyhood of a turn.
Cyclist is opposite of above projections. Expects a bottom end of this week or early next week - and a sharp rally into mid May.
I have already months earlier said that this turn and the turn mid April will be one of the most important this year. Because it lays the groundwork for the next couple of weeks. A sharp selloff making new lows confirms the January highs and adds probability this is a type 3 wave south with correction into mid May and the 5th into August. No new lows and instead just a normal correction adds probability this is just a correction within the 5th north - topping not before mid May and thereafter a EVEN MORE DEVASTING smash will be seen. In the later case I even consider to sell (or hedge) part of my coins for the duration of 2-3 months.
I myself have no clue and no reason to predict anything. Mr. Market will decide and paint the charts timely enough.
Although I'm pretty sure that the summer selloff will be xfold worse than this UCT 5xL.
Next 5xL is 05/12/2012. Before that date we have a 4xH due 04/22/2011. Means from the next major low a good rally over close to a year. Question: when will se see the next major low? Within next 2 weeks - or in summer. In my books it's summer. But "Mr. Market will decide and paint the charts timely enough."
Odds are approximately 27:3 that this is a top and a turn will be seen within coming 5-6 trading days.
Nuf babbled for coming two weeks - until a few days before the next turn.
DYOD and gl & gt
Syd 04:38 GMT March 11, 2010
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Is the Baltic Dry Index drying up as an economic gauge? Doug Mavrinac, of Jefferies, and Amrita Sen, of Barclays Capital, share their views.http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1435883833&play=1
Syd 02:44 GMT March 11, 2010
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Australia's labor force added fewer-than-expected jobs in February, but a large jump in full-time positions at the expense of part-time jobs and an increase in the number of hours worked indicates underlying demand for workers remains strong.
The economy has created close to 200,000 new jobs in the past six months, providing a challenge to policy makers as they grapple with a renewed resources boom that is set to further exacerbate capacity constraints.
The latest numbers won't likely change much on the outlook for monetary policy, with market pricing indicating that traders see only a 33% change of the Reserve Bank of Australia raising rates at its April meeting.
In February, the number of employed rose only 400, the Bureau of Statistics said. Economists on average had expected a rise of 15,000.
If anything, the flat employment growth coupled with weak housing finance shows the RBA has the room to keep its powder dry in April, Justin Smirk, chief economist at St. George said.
"What we see now is that there is no extra pressure on the RBA," Smirk said.
The RBA has already pushed rates higher and monetary policy is approaching a neutral setting. At this point the RBA has not indicated any desire to tighten beyond neutral, so don't expect the central bank to be in a rush just at the moment, he said.
The jobless rate ticked higher to 5.3%, but from a revised lower 5.2%, while the number of people in full-time work rose 11,400 to 7.66 million from 7.65 million in January. Those in part-time work fell 11,000 to 3.31 million from 3.32 million.
"On balance it's a pretty solid result in the context of big gains in recent months," said JP Morgan Economist Stephen Walters.
Interest rate traders initially bought short end bonds on the news, with the March three-year spot contract climbing three ticks to 95.00 before slipping back to 94.955.
The currency fell to US$0.9126 from US$0.9145 before the numbers, but has since recovered to US$0.9141.
Economists said a rise in the average working week means there are few signs of weakness in the jobs market.
"Given the volatility of the month-on-month data, it's not that surprising to get an occasional soft month. It doesn't stop the underlying trend of improvement, however, that we've seen over the past six months," said UBS economist George Tharenou.
The bureau said its seasonally adjusted workforce participation rate, or the proportion of working-age persons at work or actively seeking work, fell to 65.2% in February from 65.3% in January.
Aggregate monthly hours worked rose 2.4% in February from January to 1.55 billion hours, reversing months of a statistical quandary where hours worked remained stubbornly low even as thousands of jobs were added.
"This finally reverses the trend where hours worked are now increasing," said ANZ Bank Senior Economist Julie Toth. "It's certainly the turning point we were waiting for."
A notable feature of Australia's mild economic downturn was the ability of employers to cut staff hours, rather than terminate contracts, keeping the overall unemployment rate well below the expected peak.
Syd 02:29 GMT March 11, 2010
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Here's a bit of trivia for you. What do Sweden and Australia have in common?
If you answered that they both played a pioneering role in the early days of cinema, you certainly would be correct but the judges would probably reject your answer on the grounds that the question wasn't in the history category but, rather, in current events.
And if you mentioned anything about Abba, leave the room now.
The more pertinent answer is that Australia and Sweden, along with a handful of other countries like Canada, suddenly have become the muscle men of international currency markets.
It is a situation that is likely to persist for quite some time and to which our corporations and export industries will need to adapt, for there is every indication that a major realignment in global currencies is under way.
After two frenetic years of bust and boom, global sharemarkets have paused to catch their collective breath, awaiting real economic recovery to catch up.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/aussie-dollar-turns-into-popeye-of-the-pacific-20100310-pz8y.html
Syd 01:36 GMT March 11, 2010
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The avalanche of shale gas that has flooded the U.S. oil market is having a "huge impact" in the global market for the commodity, International Energy Agency's Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said Wednesday.
The supply boon brought by shale has helped delink the pricing of gas, which has sunk globally, from crude oil, which had remained relatively high across the globe, said Tanaka in an interview on the sidelines of the IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates annual conference here.
It may also affect the global market for liquefied natural gas.
"A couple of years ago we expected the U.S. to start importing gas by LNG. It appears not to be the case now," Tanaka said.
The official said that more investment in oil and gas is needed, but that some countries are still limiting access to their oil reserves. "That is a problem," he said.
Increased investment is particularly necessary in the midst of a budding economic recovery. The situation still has not approached normalcy, but "now we see robust economic recovery, especially in developing countries," Tanaka said.
China, a big driver of global oil demand, has seen its automobile fleet skyrocket, recently becoming the largest car market in the world, surpassing the U.S. Tanaka said that the growth of China's automobile fleet is huge and will continue, but poses an "interesting kind of riddle," as demand for gasoline "hasn't increased that much."
"We have to carefully watch" Chinese oil demand, he said.
Syd 01:30 GMT March 11, 2010
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SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australia's labor force added fewer-than-expected jobs in February, but a large jump in full-time positions at the expense of part-time jobs and an increase in the number of hours worked indicates underlying demand for workers remains strong.
The economy has created close to 200,000 new jobs in the past six months, providing a challenge to policy makers as they grapple with a renewed resources boom that is set to further exacerbate capacity constraints.
The latest numbers won't likely change much on the outlook for monetary policy, with market pricing indicating that traders see only a 33% change of the Reserve Bank of Australia raising rates at its April meeting.
In March, the number of employed rose only 400, the Bureau of Statistics said. Economists on average had expected a rise of 15,000.
The jobless rate ticked higher to 5.3%, but from a revised lower 5.2%, while the number of people in full-time work rose 11,400 to 7.66 million from 7.65 million in January. Those in part-time work fell 11,000 to 3.31 million from 3.32 million.
Economists said a rise in the average working week means there are few signs of weakness in the jobs market.
"Given the volatility of the month-on-month data, it's not that surprising to get an occasional soft month. It doesn't stop the underlying trend of improvement, however, that we've seen over the past six months," said UBS economist George Tharenou.
The bureau said its seasonally adjusted workforce participation rate, or the proportion of working-age persons at work or actively seeking work, fell to 65.2% in February from 65.3% in January.
Aggregate monthly hours worked rose 2.4% in February from January to 1.55 billion hours.
"On balance it's a pretty solid result in the context of big gains in recent months," said JP Morgan Economist Stephen Walters.
Syd 01:24 GMT March 11, 2010
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Australian iron ore and pellets 4Q09 exports show demand holding at record levels in 2H09, underpinned by demand from steel mills in North Asia, says Paul Morris, Deputy Executive Director of government's Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics. Australian iron ore and pellet exports in 4Q edged tad higher from 3Q at 97.6 million metric tons, 41% higher than year-earlier period. China import data for February already out, but Abare figures help to underscore robust demand for this raw material at a time when Chinese steel mills, global iron ore miners still negotiating on benchmark prices for 2010.
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