sofia kaprikorn 16:02 GMT June 28, 2009
Subject: from point to point...
excellent points made on the Monday range - think the statistics that AL presents are extremely valuable trade-wise
there are different patterns about the monday range - some in trending weeks are sucha that never look back and in consolidation weeks one can see both sides of the range tested without any significant advance... maybe the rarest is one in which the whole week price action is contained within that range.
JM - the point I learn and haven't thought of is actually why we see these strange moves in the first weekly session - the Far East one.
this goes well with another pattern I observe with great attention as it proved significant. I assume it is because nowadays information flow is instantaneous and knowledge is shared - so that;s why obvious breakouts and chart patterns do not unfold as it is presented in text book examples.
recent case in point: the much touted H&S in EUR/USD a week ago..
On breakouts and trends - it is very common that when we have tight range consolidations - the breaks do not happen on the first close beyond the range barriers - more like a rule one could try 2-3 times until the real trend move occurs...
also as much as a rule any trend breakout is preceded by a violent, sharp move in the opposite direction - this is how I interpret JM's post about taking the stops before the real move...
once you took that side the line of least resistance is the other side and we all know how once there is a big move going the retails are always eager to counter traded it until the last is gone and then the move reverses naturally.
NYC JM 12:58 GMT June 28, 2009
Subject: from point to point...
Al, that is a great point. One of the patterns I watch as the week winds on, especially for the eur/usd, is whether the high or low for the week is set on Monday.
I pay even more attention if the high or low is set in early Far East Monday trading. That often signals the last remnants of stops being run and often leads to a reversal towards the end of the week.
Of course, each week has to be taken on its own terms but it is another pattern to keep an eye on.
Tonbridge AL 12:51 GMT June 28, 2009
Subject: from point to point...
JM: let me answer you in a round about way to try to arrive at a definitive answer. Not all timeframes are the same. Not all days are the same. What I mean by that is that a different response is required to adapt to the market conditions. One needs to ask and answer many questions:
EG: what is the market doing, what is is trying to do and how good a job is it doing in achieving this.
In other words is the market trending or rotating and within what timescales.
A different response from you as a trader is necessary for each market condition and here's the holy grail if ever such a thing exists: a different position size is required in response
Taking for example the last 200+ days (data from GVI) where I find 61 instances then the the statistics show that looking at the week the high was placed on Monday in 25 days & the low on Monday in 20 days out of 61 sample survey
Day High Low
Mon25 20
Tue 6 6
Wed 7 4
Thur 12 12
Fri 11 18
so from this the first thing one finds out is that the better days possibly for Trading are Monday and Friday and that highs/lows are rarely set on Wednesdays. One also finds out that more often than not Highs and Lows are set on Mondays
I'll stop now in the hopes that we can further advance the discussion but I realize that I have not fully answered your question...yet..
Tonbridge AL 12:10 GMT June 28, 2009
Subject: mobile trading
REVDAX. consider this if you are out of the office and using your mobile then.... are you really intertested in anything more than the broad picture.?? IE read what I said about managing risk or initiating a fresh position. Apart from anything with the iPhone you can zoom in or out so the technical answer to your question is yes.
HK REVDAX 11:50 GMT June 28, 2009
Subject: mobile trading
AL//My actual question is: do traders actually use the small screen on a mobile phone to read charts? Is the screen big enough to show a simple chart clearly? TIA
NYC JM 11:35 GMT June 28, 2009
Subject: from point to point...
Al. I have always find Monday the hardest trading session for me as I tend to be a slow starter and like to see the price action unfold until I set my view. My question is how much weight do you give to a one hour chart to start the week or do you look at some of the longer time frames (e.g. 4 hour and beyond) or shorter time frames (e.g. 5 and 15 minute) until the market settles in.
What I like to do is look at what news is coming out and try to anticipate how the market will setup for it, then look at charts for confirmation.
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