GVI Forex john 20:32 GMT July 16, 2009
Subject: Videos
SETUP VIDEOS EUR/USD and GBP/USD --VIEW THEM NOW
Daily Trading Videos to set up positions for the next day (videos prepared by Denver/Tonbridge Al). Click on the Tuesday link on the new video homepage for each video to view Wednesday's setup. All other daily links
work so you can also review the past week's drama as well.
EUR/USD Video
GBP/USD Video
GVI Forex john 15:16 GMT July 16, 2009
Subject: Forex Chat
Friday will be a moderately active session for data releases. In Europe, the EZ trade data will be released. This is a key report, but usually does not move the markets. In North America, the Canadian CPI data are always closely watched as the BOC targets the Canadian inflation. Currently inflation is not an issue. In the U.S., building permits and housing starts will be released. We are much more interested in housing sales than new construction as excess inventories still have to be worked down.
FRIDAY:
Far East/Europe:
EZ- Trade- important- indication of strength of economy. Seen stable.
North America:
CA- CPI- very important- BOC targets inflation. Seen contained
US- Building Permits/Starts- very important- Key housing indicator. Seen steady.
Upcoming Major Releases:
TUESDAY
CH- Trade
CA- BOC Decision
WEDNESDAY
AU- CPI
EZ- Ind Orders
CA- Retail Sales
JA-Trade
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9:00
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EZ
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May
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Trade EURb
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Cons: +2.7
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Last: +2.7
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11:00
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CA
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Jun
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CPI yy
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Cons: -0.3%
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Last: +0.1%
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11:00
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CA
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Jun
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BOC CPI yy
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Cons: +1.9%
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Last: +2.0%
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12:30
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US
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Jun
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Bldg Permits
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Cons: 520K
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Last: 518K
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12:30
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US
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Jun
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House Starts
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Cons: 525K
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Last: 532
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GVI Forex john 12:43 GMT July 16, 2009
Subject: Forex Chat
Despite talk of seasonal distortions, pattern is striking. Question is how much do we have to give back in future weeks?
Click on chart for five-year history
GVI Forex john 11:29 GMT July 16, 2009
Subject: Forex Chat
Weekly Initial Jobless claims are the cutting edge of the jobs picture and therefore the economy. They can have a major impact on the forex market. To the extent that there is a likely skew to the market impact of the data, a better than expected report should have a larger impact than a worse than expected outcome.
GVI Forex john 10:23 GMT July 16, 2009
Subject: Forex Chat
Re Initial Jobless Claims today. A couple of well-respected private advisory services that I know say that they expect a reading of 500K or 550K depending on how the data have been computed.
Either way they expect the numbers subsequently to return to the high 500K's before slowly improving again over time. So there is an unusually wide divergence in the best guess forecasts of top economists today.
HK REVDAX 05:49 GMT July 16, 2009
Subject: magnitude forecast
Reply
I don't know how to do magnitude analysis and i wonder if there is a simple way. For example, today (July 16) I have a down cycle in Euro, but i am not sure how far it will go down.
Any suggestion?
HK REVDAX 05:44 GMT July 16, 2009
Subject: Forex Chat
John//I think RMB is undervalued in relation to the US$, albeit I am not sure how RMB would fan out if it were freely floated against US$. I go by my own productivity theory when I say that. I am living in a coastal city in China. A 'special service' performed by a farm girl costs rmb100 while the same service in San Francisco US$100. A computer engineer graduate here makes rmb 4000 while the same one in LA US$4,000. Thus i concluded rmb and US$ should be at parity.
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