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March 7, 2007
In the latest monthly forex spot rate sentiment survey of professional
forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion website,
sentiment for the USD against the EUR has eased. The three-month ahead mean currency
spot rate forecast for EUR/USD was 1.2998 from 1.2928 a month earlier. The
EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (February 6 close) of when the survey was
being conducted was 1.3098.
The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most
bullish, 50 = neutral) was lower in the EUR/USD at 39 from 56 previously. The
GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the
intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time
when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forex spot rate forecast weakened to 116.31 from
118.86 one month ago. The USD/JPY currency spot rate at the mid-point of when the
survey was being conducted was 115.83. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index turned
USD neutral. It was 55 after 39.
Traders expect the price of crude oil (WTI) to close at $61.83 in three-months
time from the current spot vs. the previous $61.44 estimate.
In a special question, 58% said that the carry trade has not run its
course while 42% said it had.
For complete detailed survey results including history see monthly forex spot rate survey
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Copyright 2007, Global Viewpoint, Inc.
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