Forex Spot Rate Forecast: Monthly Currency Spot Rate Outlook

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GVI Dollar Outlook

Currency Forecasts: Monthly survey of forex spot rate for eur/usd and usd/jpy for 3 months ahead

Global-View Currency Forecasts: Monthly Currency Spot Rate Survey

March 7, 2007

In the latest monthly forex spot rate sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion website, sentiment for the USD against the EUR has eased. The three-month ahead mean currency spot rate forecast for EUR/USD was 1.2998 from 1.2928 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (February 6 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.3098.

The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) was lower in the EUR/USD at 39 from 56 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.

The USD/JPY mean dollar forex spot rate forecast weakened to 116.31 from 118.86 one month ago. The USD/JPY currency spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 115.83. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index turned USD neutral. It was 55 after 39.

Traders expect the price of crude oil (WTI) to close at $61.83 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $61.44 estimate.

In a special question, 58% said that the carry trade has not run its course while 42% said it had.

For complete detailed survey results including history see monthly forex spot rate survey

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