The Global-View.com Monetary Policy Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here
Upcoming Central Bank Meetings -- Monetary Profiles
3/12/10
Date
Bank
Target
GVI Forex Policy Outlook
last
10-Mar-10
RBNZ
2.50%
No change. April
2010 hike?
unch
11-Mar-10
SNB
0.50%
Steady Policy QE
exit starting
unch
16-Mar-10
FED
0 to.25%
No rate change.
Exit policy mulled
unch
17-Mar-10
BOJ
0.10%
No rate change.
Quantitative Ease
unch
6-Apr-10
RBA
4.00%
April steady?
+25bp
8-Apr-10
ECB
1.00%
No rate change.
QE exit starting
unch
8-Apr-10
BOE
0.50%
No rate change.
Quantitative Ease
unch
20-Apr-10
BOC
0.25%
BOC to hold
rates unch until mid-2010
unch
3/12/10
GMT
US
FF
implied
mtgs
Futures
implied
change
MAR10
0.26
0.00
Jan 10
0.635
Jan 27
JUN10
0.39
0.00
Feb 10
#VALUE!
Mar 16
SEP10
0.60
0.02
Mar 10
0.165
Apr 28
DEC10
0.91
0.03
Apr 10
0.180
Jun 23
Eurozone
U.K
Switz
Switz
Futures
implied
chg
implied
chg
implied
chg
MAR10
0.65
0.00
0.65
0.00
0.25
0.00
JUN10
0.75
0.01
0.72
0.01
0.31
0.01
SEP10
0.99
0.02
0.90
0.02
0.43
0.02
DEC10
1.24
0.02
1.19
0.02
0.62
0.02
Japan
Australia
Canada
Canada
Futures
implied
chg
implied
chg
implied
chg
MAR10
0.44
0.00
5.71
0.00
0.47
0.00
JUN10
0.38
0.01
5.80
0.01
0.61
0.01
SEP10
0.37
0.02
5.78
0.02
1.04
0.02
DEC10
0.36
0.02
5.82
0.02
1.50
0.02
GVI Dollar Outlook
EUROZONE
GVI European Central Bank Policy and Economic Profiles
ECB Policy Objective: The primary objective of the ECB's monetary policy is to maintain price
stability. The ECB aims at inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
Eurozone Economic Profile in Charts
The chart above shows year/year HICP (Harmonized CPI) for the Eurozone
relatrive to its "below 2%" target level.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current
ECB "refi" rate target and where the futures markets are
currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the
future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures
rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.
The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Eurozone interest
rates are headed.
The chart above shows the ECB refi rate target, three month libor, and
two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
GVI Dollar Outlook
CANADA
GVI Bank of Canada Policy
BANK OF CANADA Policy Objective: The Bank of Canada aims to keep inflation at the 2 per cent target, the midpoint of the 1 to 3 per cent inflation-control target range. This target is expressed in terms of total CPI inflation, but the Bank uses a measure of core inflation as an operational guide. Core inflation provides a better measure of the underlying trend of inflation and tends to be a better predictor of future changes in the total CPI.
The chart above shows year/year CPI-X (core CPI) and the target of 2% for this price index.
The chart above shows the current three month Banker Acceptance rate, the current
BOC overnight rate target and where the futures markets are
currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the
future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures
rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.
The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Canadian interest
rates are headed.
The chart above shows the Canadian overnight rate target, three month Bankers Acceptance, and
two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.
Major Currency Pairs - Currency Forecasts- Monthly Perspective
Forex Currency Market Reports
This currency forecast report of major currency pairs vs. the us currency, including gbp to usd, euro to usd, yen to usd and cad to usd is presented weekly. This is a free feature of currency exchange forecasts. Monthly forex forecast services are also available from the pros at GVI.
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