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9/2/10 20:08
Target   3-Mo
4.50 Aust 4.85
0.10 Japan 0.23
0.50 U.K. 0.73
1.00 E-Z 0.83
0.25 Switz 0.17
0.75 Cda 1.03
0.13 U.S. 0.29
2-YR % bp chg
Aust 4.34 -1
Japan 0.13 0
U.K. 0.71 2
E-Z 0.61 -1
Switz 0.38 3
Cda 1.19 7
U.S. 0.49 -1
10-YR % bp chg
Aust 4.82 2
Japan 1.12 9
U.K. 2.96 3
E-Z 2.28 6
Switz 1.26 8
Cda 2.87 2
U.S. 2.63 5


 


 

Global-View Forex -- interest rate -- US dollar interest rate -- euro interest rate and others

The purpose of fundamental forex analysis is to forecast the future value of a currency. Interest rates are a key element in that process. The US dollar interest rate and the euro interest rate outlooks are the first tier relationships in forex interest rate relationships. The tables below show the us dollar interest rate target for the FOMC, the euro interest rate target for the ECB and comparable forex interest rate targets for the next five most important central banks. Use these data for your foreign exchange currency forecasting.

The professional forex traders at GVI have assembled acomprehensive array of monetary policy indicators for those trying to anticipate interest rate moves as a factor in exchange rate movements.In banking, foreign exchange is the buying and selling of actual balances by financial institutions who daily execute the transfer of substantial amounts of funds from one currency to another. Interest rates are the cost of funds that are traded and thus affect the value of one currency relative to another. It is the role of Central Banks tocontrol the price of short-term money (e.g. overnight to 3-mo interest rates) via open market operations and control of the money supply. Central Banks use monetary policy to control inflation. Almost all central banks target inflation to one extent to another.

The price of long-term money (e.g. 2-yr to10-yr bonds) is determined by the marketplace and reflects the outlook of investors and borrowers for economic growth and inflation in the long term. Generally, hot money tends to flow from where money is cheapest to where yields are highest. Long-term investors tend to seek out the currencies with the highest real (inflation adjusted) yields, rather than the currencies with thehighest nominal returns.

 The TABLE below is updated daily by GVI and provides the latest readings for short-term interest rates (central bank target andthree-month) and daily changes. It also indicates where futures markets feel 3-mo rates will be at various future times. Included as well is the current official target rate for money, the date for the next policy meeting, and the GVI outlook for that meeting.

The links below provide access to charts of short- and long-term interest rates for selected economies. There is also a chart showing how the futures forecast for interest rates have been at various points in time in the recent past. Also included is a table of the inflation measure that the central bank in question is targeting. Above target levels imply that interest rates could be tightened in the future while below target growth implies lower rates.

SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
EUROZONE
JAPAN
SWITZERLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES



9/2/10 GMT US   Month FF mtgs
Futures implied change        
SEP10 0.31 -0.01   Jul 10 #VALUE! n/a
DEC10 0.42 -0.01   Aug 10 0.1875 10-Aug-10
MAR11 0.48 -0.01   Sep 10 0.185 21-Sep-10
JUN11 0.58 -0.01   Oct 10 0.185 n/a
SEP11 0.71 -0.01   Nov 10 0.18 3-Nov-10
DEC11 0.86 -0.01   Nov 10 0.18 14-Dec-10
             
  Eurozone U.K   Switz Switz
Futures implied chg implied chg implied chg
SEP10 0.87 -0.01 0.74 -0.01 0.19 -0.01
DEC10 0.92 0.01 0.80 0.01 0.23 0.01
MAR11 0.98 0.01 0.85 0.01 0.30 0.01
JUN11 1.04 0.01 0.93 0.01 0.39 0.01
SEP11 1.09 0.01 1.05 0.01 0.49 0.01
DEC11 1.18 0.01 1.19 0.01 0.58 0.01
             
  Japan   Australia   Canada Canada
Futures implied chg implied chg implied chg
SEP10 0.35 -0.01 4.75 -0.01 1.08 -0.01
DEC10 0.31 0.01 4.71 0.01 1.12 0.01
MAR11 0.30 0.01 4.72 0.01 1.23 0.01
JUN11 0.27 0.01 4.72 0.01 1.32 0.01


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EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD



Global-View.com Chart Gallery
09/2/2010                
20:08 GMT   2yr bp 10yr bp DJIA 10316 61
USDX 82.44 -6 0.49 -1 2.63 5 S&P 1090 11
  USD vs.     Fixed Income   NAS 2199 25
EUR 1.2823 16 0.61 -1 2.28 6 DAX 6084 0
GBP 1.5396 53 0.71 2 2.96 3 FTSE 5371 5
CHF 1.0129 22 0.38 3 1.26 8 SMI 6334 0
JPY 84.23 18 0.13 0 1.12 9 NIK 9063 136
CAD 1.0530 21 1.19 7 2.87 2 TSE 12089 111
AUD 0.9115 16 4.34 -1 4.82 2 ASX 4533 37
NZD 0.7152 32 HSI 20869 245
CNY 6.8080 32 SSEC 2659 36
  EUR vs.     GBP vs.       AUD vs
JPY 108.01 10 JPY 129.68 72 GBP 1.6885 91
GBP 83.29 39 CHF 155.95 88 CAD 0.9601 37
CHF 1.2988 12 CAD 1.6212 21 CHF 1.0820 0
AUD 1.4063 10   JPY vs.   NZD 1.2740 31
CAD 1.3502 46 CHF 83.16 0 Commodities
  CHF vs. CAD 1.25 48 Gold 1251.1 6.30
CAD 1.082 2 AUD 76.8 0 WTI 74.98 1.02
                   
                   



Extensive Free Daily Technical Chart Points

9/2/2010 EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD
Close 1.2815 84.25 1.0133 1.5392 1.0529
High 1.2848 84.55 1.0186 1.5455 1.0556
Low 1.2777 84.01 1.0096 1.5351 1.0473
Mov avgs EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD
5 day 1.2740 84.53 1.0196 1.5434 1.0562
10 day 1.2714 84.69 1.0258 1.5464 1.0556
20 day 1.2834 85.13 1.0353 1.5581 1.0457
50 day 1.2801 86.55 1.0477 1.5439 1.0428
100 day 1.2699 89.23 1.0839 1.5131 1.0376
200 day 1.3352 89.96 1.0669 1.5434 1.0389
Pivots 1.2813 84.27 1.0138 1.5399 1.0519

Source: Free Global-View FX Database





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