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Market Tracker

3/12/10 21:07
Target   3-Mo
3.75 Aust 4.30
0.10 Japan 0.25
0.50 U.K. 0.64
1.00 E-Z 0.59
0.25 Switz 0.25
0.25 Cda 0.40
0.13 U.S. 0.26
2-YR % bp chg
Aust 4.88 1
Japan 0.15 3
U.K. 1.23 -2
E-Z 1.05 1
Switz 0.49 2
Cda 1.39 4
U.S. 0.95 1
10-YR % bp chg
Aust 5.67 1
Japan 1.35 3
U.K. 4.10 -4
E-Z 3.17 -1
Switz 1.94 2
Cda 3.54 4
U.S. 3.70 -1


 


 

Global-View Forex -- interest rate -- US dollar interest rate -- euro interest rate and others

The purpose of fundamental forex analysis is to forecast the future value of a currency. Interest rates are a key element in that process. The US dollar interest rate and the euro interest rate outlooks are the first tier relationships in forex interest rate relationships. The tables below show the us dollar interest rate target for the FOMC, the euro interest rate target for the ECB and comparable forex interest rate targets for the next five most important central banks. Use these data for your foreign exchange currency forecasting.

The professional forex traders at GVI have assembled acomprehensive array of monetary policy indicators for those trying to anticipate interest rate moves as a factor in exchange rate movements.In banking, foreign exchange is the buying and selling of actual balances by financial institutions who daily execute the transfer of substantial amounts of funds from one currency to another. Interest rates are the cost of funds that are traded and thus affect the value of one currency relative to another. It is the role of Central Banks tocontrol the price of short-term money (e.g. overnight to 3-mo interest rates) via open market operations and control of the money supply. Central Banks use monetary policy to control inflation. Almost all central banks target inflation to one extent to another.

The price of long-term money (e.g. 2-yr to10-yr bonds) is determined by the marketplace and reflects the outlook of investors and borrowers for economic growth and inflation in the long term. Generally, hot money tends to flow from where money is cheapest to where yields are highest. Long-term investors tend to seek out the currencies with the highest real (inflation adjusted) yields, rather than the currencies with thehighest nominal returns.

 The TABLE below is updated daily by GVI and provides the latest readings for short-term interest rates (central bank target andthree-month) and daily changes. It also indicates where futures markets feel 3-mo rates will be at various future times. Included as well is the current official target rate for money, the date for the next policy meeting, and the GVI outlook for that meeting.

The links below provide access to charts of short- and long-term interest rates for selected economies. There is also a chart showing how the futures forecast for interest rates have been at various points in time in the recent past. Also included is a table of the inflation measure that the central bank in question is targeting. Above target levels imply that interest rates could be tightened in the future while below target growth implies lower rates.

SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
EUROZONE
JAPAN
SWITZERLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES



3/12/10 GMT US FF implied mtgs  
             
Futures implied change        
MAR10 0.26 0.00 Jan 10 0.635 Jan 27  
JUN10 0.39 0.00 Feb 10 #VALUE! Mar 16  
SEP10 0.60 0.02 Mar 10 0.165 Apr 28  
DEC10 0.91 0.03 Apr 10 0.180 Jun 23  
             
             
  Eurozone U.K   Switz Switz
             
Futures implied chg implied chg implied chg
MAR10 0.65 0.00 0.65 0.00 0.25 0.00
JUN10 0.75 0.01 0.72 0.01 0.31 0.01
SEP10 0.99 0.02 0.90 0.02 0.43 0.02
DEC10 1.24 0.02 1.19 0.02 0.62 0.02
             
             
  Japan   Australia   Canada Canada
             
Futures implied chg implied chg implied chg
MAR10 0.44 0.00 5.71 0.00 0.47 0.00
JUN10 0.38 0.01 5.80 0.01 0.61 0.01
SEP10 0.37 0.02 5.78 0.02 1.04 0.02
DEC10 0.36 0.02 5.82 0.02 1.50 0.02


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Global-View.com Chart Gallery
03/12/2010                
21:07 GMT   2yr bp 10yr bp DJIA 10623 16
USDX 79.83 -47 0.95 1 3.70 -1 S&P 1150 3
USD vs.             NAS 2367 0
EUR 1.3760 82 1.05 1 3.17 -1 DAX 5945 16
GBP 1.5183 121 1.23 -2 4.10 -4 FTSE 5626 8
CHF 1.0581 103 0.49 2 1.94 2 SMI 6837 0
JPY 90.46 9 0.15 3 1.35 3 NIK 10751 86
CAD 1.0183 55 1.39 4 3.54 4 TSE 11977 21
AUD 0.9152 6 4.88 1 5.67 1 ASX 4818 4
NZD 0.7011 7         HSI 21210 18
CNY 6.8264 12         SSEC 3013 38
EUR vs. GBP vs.   CHF vs.  
JPY 124.47 62 JPY 137.35 96   JPY 85.49 74
GBP 90.63 18 CHF 160.65 27   Gold 1101.9 6.39
CHF 1.4559 54         WTI 81.31 0.86
 



Extensive Free Daily Technical Chart Points

3/12/2010 EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD
Close 1.3758 90.45 1.0580 1.5181 1.0179
High 1.3796 91.08 1.0696 1.5217 1.0251
Low 1.3670 90.18 1.0578 1.5028 1.0157
Mov avgs EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD
5 day 1.3660 90.35 1.0692 1.5049 1.0243
10 day 1.3638 89.73 1.0717 1.5048 1.0291
20 day 1.3617 90.04 1.0744 1.5274 1.0387
50 day 1.3908 90.43 1.0565 1.5722 1.0453
100 day 1.4322 90.13 1.0391 1.6060 1.0517
200 day 1.4328 91.80 1.0491 1.6209 1.0739
Pivots 1.3741 90.57 1.0618 1.5142 1.0196

Source: Free Global-View FX Database





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