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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (30 December 2005)
GCI Financial Friday December 30, 2005 - 15:18:28 GMT



The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1780 level after running out of steam around the $1.1890 level. Stops were hit below the $1.1800 figure, representing the 61.8% retracement of the move from $1    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 30-Dec-2005...1218 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday December 30, 2005 - 12:27:23 GMT

Swiss @ 1.3154/59.....Crucial resistance at 1.3183-1.3200
----------------------------------------------------------
R: 1.3161-67 / 1.3218 / 1.3256
S: 1.3100-1.3082 / 1.3070-56
The Up trend line drawn from 14-Dec lows (1.2773) is currently providing support at 1  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Friday December 30, 2005 - 11:16:04 GMT

Markets treading water until next year. JPY stronger overnight as Japanese stocks tumble on year's final trading day.

Market indecisive ahead of long weekend though it will likely make up its mind in the first week of the New Year.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• US Chicago PMI for December out at 61  More...    More...



US housing will remain in focus
INVESTICA Ltd Friday December 30, 2005 - 10:30:38 GMT

The dollar fluctuated in a relatively narrow range against the Euro during Thursday as liquidity remained low. The Euro was blocked around 1.1880 and settled close to 1.1845. Position adjustment will remain significant on Friday and will probably be the dominant influence with no significant economic data due and low trading volumes  More...    More...


Thin holiday trading conditions remain as economic data proves hard to find.
CMC Markets Friday December 30, 2005 - 10:04:52 GMT

December 30th - As thin trading conditions continue to prevail in currency markets, there’s been little information around to provide traders with any meaningful direction. Yesterday’s US weekly jobless claims came in only slightly higher so this was insufficient to illicit any kind of reaction, whilst the fact that crude has edged up through the $60 mark also seems to be of little concern – at least for the time being  More...    More...


China view
Black Swan Capital Thursday December 29, 2005 - 18:22:55 GMT

Quotable
“We must learn to differentiate clearly the fundamentally important, that which is really basic, from that which is dispensable, and to turn aside from everything else, from the multitude of things which clutter up the mind and divert it from the essential  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (29 December 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday December 29, 2005 - 15:58:32 GMT



The euro was largely unchanged vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1880 level and was supported around the $1.1820 level. Liquidity and market conditions remain lessened ahead of this weekend’s New Year’s holiday with many traders off their desks until early next week  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 29-Dec-2005....1245 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday December 29, 2005 - 12:54:47 GMT

Swiss @ 1.3164/69....Critical resistance at 1.3195-1.3200 ahead
----------------------------------------------------------
R: 1.3195-1.3200 / 1.3243-56
S: 1.3136-31 / 1.3100 / 1.3083-71
The pair found strong buying interest after dipping to 1  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Thursday December 29, 2005 - 10:44:34 GMT

USD stronger again as US rates rise and Crude oil jumps higher. USD may follow through stronger in the beginning of the New Year.

US Chicago PMI and Existing Home Sales up today as well as Energy Inventories. CAD gaining traction on energy spike  More...    More...



Recent EUR gains prove unsustainable, oil data in focus
CMC Markets Thursday December 29, 2005 - 08:43:09 GMT

December 29th - Yesterday’s rally by the Euro on the back of better than expected German consumer confidence figures has proved to be short lived, with attention yet again turning to US inflationary pressures as traders look for direction in what is proving to be a rather quiet week  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (28 December 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday December 28, 2005 - 15:24:31 GMT



The euro notched solid gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1930 level and remained supported around the $1.1825 level. Technically, today’s intraday high is just above the 50% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



Dollar yield support weakens
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday December 28, 2005 - 14:20:23 GMT

The dollar was little changed against the Euro on Tuesday in market volumes sharply below normal as there was no trading in London. The dollar edged marginally stronger, but was unable to break any major technical levels and was close to 1.1830 against the Euro in New York  More...    More...


2/10 Inversion
Black Swan Capital Wednesday December 28, 2005 - 13:28:48 GMT

Quotable

“All successful trading comes down to three things, knowledge, nerve, and the ability to lose money.”
Joseph Siegel

FX Trading

2/10 inversion is upon us! If history be our guide, it tells us the Fed is almost done  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 28-Dec-2005....1155 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday December 28, 2005 - 12:52:54 GMT

MERRY X'MAS and a HAPPY NEW YEAR!
---------------------------------

Biggish fall in the US Dollar today in thin market conditions. The currencies are expected to remain ranged overall, but can move up or down abruptly, at the mere drop of a hat  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Wednesday December 28, 2005 - 10:49:18 GMT

AUD/USD rejects break lower. JPY blasted again on the return of the carry trade overnight. USD suddenly weaker this morning.

USD flopping back and forth as we wait for next Tuesday before the market gets back to normal trading volumes.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• US Richmond Fed Index for December out at -2 vs  More...    More...



Mixed Japanese data fails to inspire Yen
CMC Markets Wednesday December 28, 2005 - 07:37:33 GMT

December 28th - A mixed bag of economic data from Japan over the last couple of days – including rising unemployment and consumer prices – has failed to provide the Yen with the support many had been looking for. As a result, the greenback has continued to appreciate against the JPY in recent days, posting further gains from the pre-Christmas move as low as 115  More...    More...


Could belief in recovery change the game?
Black Swan Capital Tuesday December 27, 2005 - 19:16:21 GMT

Quotable
“During the 10 years I traded for George Soros, I never heard him speak once abut a winning trade. To hear him talk, you’d think he had had nothing but losers. Conversely, listening to the biggest losers, you’d think they had had nothing but winners  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (27 December 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday December 27, 2005 - 14:37:44 GMT



The euro weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1830 level and was capped around the $1.1877 area. Liquidity conditions improved overnight with many dealers returning to their desks in Europe and London after yesterday’s Boxing Day holidays but order flow is definitely reduced and will lessen even further at the end of the week  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 27-Dec-2005....1140 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday December 27, 2005 - 11:51:24 GMT

MERRY X'MAS and a HAPPY NEW YEAR!
---------------------------------

Nothing much has happened since the morning in any pair except the Cable, which has moved up a bit to 1.7369.

Still, the Cable has Resistance at 1.7400 to reckon with  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Tuesday December 27, 2005 - 10:24:33 GMT

JPY weakens across the board overnight - is the bout of JPY strength over with?

Europe and US get partially back to work after Monday holiday. No real US data of interest until next Tuesday (ISM and FOMC Minutes)


MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Last Friday: Weaker than expected US Nov  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (26 December 2005)
GCI Financial Monday December 26, 2005 - 15:27:25 GMT



The euro moved marginally higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today in holiday-thinned dealing that saw the single currency supported around the $1.1830 level and capped around the $1.1895 level. Boxing Day holidays on the Continent, in the United Kingdom, and a bank holiday in the U  More...    More...



FOREX: COT Analysis courtesy Cumino
Global-View Saturday December 24, 2005 - 12:53:22 GMT

COT Analysis Courtesy Cumino



Save and UNZIP    More...



Forex - Japanese Yen Catapults in Thin Trading
FXCM Friday December 23, 2005 - 19:24:39 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-23-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Japanese Yen Catapults in Thin Trading
• Possible Yield Inversion Bearish for Dollar
• Pound Slides for Fifth Consecutive Day as Data Weakens

US Dollar

As traders leave early for the three day weekend and even close their books until the New Year, you could almost hear a pin drop at most trading desks  More...    More...



Forex: Preview of economic releases in the next two weeks
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Friday December 23, 2005 - 15:54:56 GMT

Economics Weekly: Preview of economic releases in the next two weeks

Week of December 26 2005
US and European markets are closed on Monday, UK markets remain shut on Tuesday as well. Investors may concentrate on economic data from Japan  More...    More...



US housing slowdown?
FX Today Friday December 23, 2005 - 15:39:56 GMT

The US economic data was mixed with a strong headline rise in durable goods orders, but an underlying drop in orders as capital goods orders weakened. Consumer confidence rose, but there was a bigger than expected drop in new home sales to 1.25mn for November  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (23 December 2005)
GCI Financial Friday December 23, 2005 - 13:38:45 GMT



The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1840 level and failed to get through the $1.1885 level. The dollar ceded some recent gains yesterday, however, after Richmond Fed President Lacker reiterated the Fed needs to be “alert for movements in economic fundamentals” but added it is “reasonable” to conclude the Fed is “far closer” to ending its tightening cycle than before  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 23-Dec-2005....1130 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday December 23, 2005 - 11:35:43 GMT

MERRY X'MAS and a HAPPY NEW YEAR!
---------------------------------
Peace on Earth, goodwill to men.

The market has not moved at all since the morning. We are going to be closed on Monday. Not much to write about. So, we'll just review our Positions (a single Short in Cable) and our Orders (a Sell order in Aussie)  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday December 23, 2005 - 11:32:53 GMT

Key Points
• Some modest upside risk initially to EUR-USD after nyesterday’s move. US data in focus.
• Eurozone balance of payments, Canadian GDP, US durable orders, new home sales and Michigan sentiment feature today.
• This is the last FX Daily until January 3  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Friday December 23, 2005 - 11:24:37 GMT

GBP struggle may be set to continue. Next week is key for the JPY with big round of economic data from Japan.

Thin markets await traders today. CAD may be weak on natural gas decline - but Oct. GDP for Canada up later.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Australia Leading Index declined -0  More...    More...



Dollar closes Asian session in muted mood, new data could provide pre-Christmas direction
CMC Markets Friday December 23, 2005 - 08:29:21 GMT

December 23rd - The dollar has closed Asian currency markets in a somewhat muted mood ahead of the Christmas break and although volumes are set to be thin during the day ahead, there’s still some key numbers set to be released before the weekend. Principally these are due from the US and include both the Michigan consumer sentiment reading for December and US durable goods orders for November  More...    More...


Forex: Dollar Weakens Ahead of Possible Yield Inversion
FXCM Thursday December 22, 2005 - 21:37:41 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-22-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Weakens Ahead of Possible Yield Inversion
• Inflation Still on the Minds of Dollar Traders
• Pound Extends Losses Following Weaker GDP and Wider Current Account

US Dollar

After three days of gains, the dollar has finally retraced against the Euro and Japanese Yen  More...    More...



Forex:Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday December 22, 2005 - 20:55:51 GMT

New Zealand Dollar NZD meltdown
The NZD traded in a reasonably tight range yesterday morning hovering just above 0.6780 but it collapsed after a GDP reading that indicated that economic growth was at the bottom end of expectations. Initially the NZD held its ground after the release but as the morning wore on the sellers returned  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (22 December 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday December 22, 2005 - 15:41:17 GMT



The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1870 level and remained supported around the $1.1810 level. Many economic data were released in the U.S. today. First, it was reported that November personal spending climbed +0  More...    More...



US inflation reassurance
FX Today Thursday December 22, 2005 - 14:16:18 GMT

The US personal income and spending data was close to expectations and the 0.1% increase in inflation for a 1.8% annual increase will offer some reassurance over inflation, offsetting the report yesterday. The net implications are marginally dollar negative, but positioning trends will tend to dominate  More...    More...


FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 22-Dec-2005....1219 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday December 22, 2005 - 12:36:28 GMT

Euro @ 1.1826/9.....Crucial Support at 1.1800
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.1841-59 / 1.1883-96
S: 1.1816-00 / 1.1775-66 / 1.1738
The Euro is nestling just above Support at 1.1816-00. In case this breaks, a fall towards 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday December 22, 2005 - 11:54:54 GMT

Key Points
• USD remains generally solid, but EUR-USD stays above next support at 1.1800.
• USD-JPY could extend a little further today – 117.70 is key.
• Japanese data continues to point to strong economic activity.
• NZD hit again as GDP data reveals underlying ills of NZ economy  More...    More...



Signs of a euro rebound--maybe?
Black Swan Capital Thursday December 22, 2005 - 11:48:31 GMT

Quotable

“’God bless us every one!’ said Tiny Tim, the last of all.”

Charles Dickens

FX Trading
Being mostly dollar bulls this year, and despite the run in the buck of late, we believe there are good reasons to start looking for a rally in EURUSD  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Thursday December 22, 2005 - 10:21:02 GMT

JPY may be prime mover today as USD/JPY reaches key retracement levels and other JPY crosses must stand or fall.

EUR/USD reversal back into the old range appears complete, though thin markets treacherous. US PCE Deflator on tap as US rate view in focus  More...    More...



Forex markets remain volatile as volumes fall but newsflows remain buoyant
CMC Markets Thursday December 22, 2005 - 08:55:03 GMT

As the last full trading session in Europe gets underway, the dollar has continued to post some small incremental gains against the major currency pairs but with volumes thinning out, momentum is proving difficult to find.
There’s a raft of US data due for release later in the session which should provide some direction with regard to inflationary pressures  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Rally Continues as Fed Official Remains Vigilant
FXCM Wednesday December 21, 2005 - 20:54:24 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-21-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Rally Continues as Fed Official Remains Vigilant
• Market Shrugs off ECB Rate Hike Rumors
• Pound Slides as BoE Votes 8-1 to Leave Rates Unchanged

US Dollar

In another day of thin trading and Day 2 of the New York City Transit Strike, the dollar continued its impressive rally against the majors  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (21 December 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday December 21, 2005 - 14:39:34 GMT



The euro moved marginally higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1910 level and was supported around the $1.1855 level. Technically, the common currency stopped just short of testing the 50% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies.
Saxo Bank Wednesday December 21, 2005 - 12:31:49 GMT

Look for EURUSD to test 1.1840 in the upcoming session

EURUSD bounced off fibo support at 1.1840 in a thin traded market and a break here would give scope for further downside, supported by yesterday's US data.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
New Zealand:
• Current Account deficit widened to a record $5  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 21-Dec-2005 1149 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday December 21, 2005 - 12:05:58 GMT

Euro @ 1.1872/5.....Crucial juncture
------------------------------------
R: 1.1896-1914 / 1.1955
S: 1.1855-44 / 1.1823 / 1.1805-00
Crucial Support at 1.1855-44. Crucial Resistance at 1.1896-1914. This range might remain intact today  More...    More...



Yen and rates?
Black Swan Capital Wednesday December 21, 2005 - 11:42:30 GMT

Quotable

“This columnist’s premises are the following. First, the world’s second-biggest economy has started—but only started—on the path out of the morass formed by a decade of deflation. As the recovery builds speed, it is likely to be sustained by a virtuous circle of forces  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday December 21, 2005 - 11:32:32 GMT

Key Points
• USD strength slowly returning – EUR-USD pressuring 50-day moving average.
• Further USD-JPY stabilisation likely.
• NZ current account deficit bad but fairly well anticipated.
• UK MPC minutes show a dissenter - CBI retail sales rebound could be statistical noise  More...    More...



Where next for the dollar
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday December 21, 2005 - 11:00:49 GMT

The dollar strengthened to highs beyond 1.19 following the US data and Euro losses accelerated after the break of 1.19 with a drop to a low of 1.1840 before a marginal recovery. The Euro edged stronger in early Europe on Wednesday and should find support close to 1  More...    More...


Raft of economic data stands to keep dollar trading brisk ahead of long weekend
CMC Markets Wednesday December 21, 2005 - 10:39:21 GMT

December 21st - The run of dollar selling that was seen in recent weeks is clearly looking to be at an end, with consensus being that although an adjustment was required, the resulting move was somewhat overstated. The run of appreciation against the Yen, bouncing off lows around 115  More...    More...


Forex: Dollar Rallies on Thin Trading
FXCM Tuesday December 20, 2005 - 21:32:08 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-20-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Rallies on Thin Trading
• Euro Weakens Following Disappointing Data
• Pound Sell-off Contained Thanks to Stronger Housing Report

US Dollar

There has been a rather impressive rally in the dollar today against all of the majors  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday December 20, 2005 - 21:29:25 GMT

New Zealand Dollar NZD positioning ahead of key data
The NZD opened yesterday on its highs before drifting lower throughout the day trading in a 0.6852-0.6902 range with sellers overwhelming the session ahead of key economic data today and tomorrow  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (20 December 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday December 20, 2005 - 14:37:05 GMT



The euro weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1930 level after testing offers around the $1.2010 level. The common currency failed to rally after the release of weaker-than-expected November U  More...    More...



Warm weather boosts US housing
FX Today Tuesday December 20, 2005 - 14:18:58 GMT

The US data was mixed with a bigger than expected 0.7% drop in producer prices while there was a bigger than expected increase of 5.2% in housing starts to 2.12mn. The housing sector is, however, likely to have been distorted by warm weather while the inflation reading will offer encouragement to the Fed  More...    More...


FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 20-Dec-2005....1214 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday December 20, 2005 - 12:27:40 GMT

Euro @ 1.1966/9....Consolidation coming to an end
--------------------------------------------------
R: 1.2003 / 1.2028 / 1.2041-61
S: 1.1961-55 / 1.1919
Careful now. The Euro is almost at the end of the sideways consolidation it has been in for the last 6 days  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday December 20, 2005 - 11:26:10 GMT

Key Points
• USD-JPY steady – EUR-USD eases back in Europe.
• US housing market data weakens again.
• UK - mortgage lending up, RICS survey shows rise in house prices.
• Canadian CPI, US PPI and housing starts feature today – NZ current account tonight  More...    More...



Golden reasons...
Black Swan Capital Tuesday December 20, 2005 - 11:24:38 GMT

Quotable

“The heart of man is made to reconcile the most glaring contradictions.”

David Hume

FX Trading
Have you noticed that everyone seems to be saying the same thing about gold—that it’s going higher! Is that telling us something? Remember the mantra: “The dollar HAS to go lower—it’s the CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT stupid  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Tuesday December 20, 2005 - 11:14:05 GMT

CAD weaker as carry trade unwinding continues.

USD/CAD broke to the upside yesterday as the unwinding of CAD/JPY carry trades continued. GBP look a bit weak but generally the Majors are fairly quiet.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
The market seem to be moving into quiet mode a bit early ahead of the Christmas break - the past sessions were very quiet compared to last weeks action  More...    More...



Sterling housing boost
INVESTICA Ltd Tuesday December 20, 2005 - 11:00:58 GMT

Sterling weakened to low beyond the 0.68 level against the Euro and failed to hold above 1.77 against the US currency with a drop to lows just below 1.76 before a slight recovery. The shift in positioning seen over the past week will make it more difficult for Sterling to gain ground  More...    More...


Economic newsflow slows; monetary policy back in focus.
CMC Markets Tuesday December 20, 2005 - 09:27:23 GMT

December 20th - The greenback is continuing its rebound from recent lows as consensus mounts in the market that the recent sell-off may have been too severe. Economic data to provide fundamental support remains somewhat thin on the ground, although US housing numbers and the latest producer price index reading will both be closely watched when released later in the session  More...    More...


FXCM - Dollar Bulls Eye Housing Market
FXCM Monday December 19, 2005 - 22:26:53 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-19-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Bulls Eye Housing Market
• Euro Weakens on Disappointing Industrial Production
• Pound Slides as Blair Gives Up EU Rebates

US Dollar

With no major economic releases on the calendar today, the dollar recuperated a part of its losses during the Asian session and then spent most of the US trading session range bound  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday December 19, 2005 - 21:20:37 GMT

New Zealand Dollar NZD struggles to hold ground above 0.6900
The domestic session saw the NZD stick to a narrow range edging above 0.6900 to reach an intraday high of 0.6914, unmoved by treasury’s forecast of a steeper economic slowdown. The NZD opened steady after eking out marginal gains in offshore trade on a broadly lower USD, which continued to remain heavy as investors pared back dollar positions  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (19 December 2005)
GCI Financial Monday December 19, 2005 - 14:05:36 GMT



The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1975 level and was capped around the $1.2040 level. The common currency gapped about fifteen points higher at the Australasian open and then sank, reaching stops below the $1  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 19-Dec-2005....1212 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday December 19, 2005 - 12:25:55 GMT


Euro @ 1.2010/13...Wait to see how today closes
--------------------------------------------------
R: 1.2041 / 1.2065-70
S: 1.2000 / 1.1989-80
The big theme in Euro now is whether (or not) the Euro will remain below 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Monday December 19, 2005 - 11:54:22 GMT

Key Points
• USD-JPY steadies a little after last week’s losses.
• EUR-USD downside tentatively favoured, but US data (especially on housing) could be crucial this week.
• GBP weaker after Bean comments.
• US NAHB housing market index features today – UK RICS survey tonight  More...    More...



Forex: Economic forecasts of 2005 were accurate in places
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday December 19, 2005 - 11:22:34 GMT

Economics Weekly: Economic forecasts of 2005 were accurate in places

How has the 2005 economic performance surprised?
How did growth, inflation and interest rates for the major economies turn out in 2005 (on latest estimates) compared with expectations made by around 30 economists at the start of the year? We analyse this by comparing the consensus forecasts made in the December 2004 issue of Consensus Economics for 2005 with those for the same year in the December 2005 issue  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Monday December 19, 2005 - 11:14:05 GMT

Time for the USD to follow through weaker. Key week for US housing data.

JPY finally eases back a bit overnight, but any weakness may fade quickly ahead.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Strong German IFO Friday: 99  More...    More...



Dollar looks for support
INVESTICA Ltd Monday December 19, 2005 - 10:48:08 GMT

The dollar weakened to a low of 115.50 against the dollar in early Asia on Monday, but there was then evidence of bargain hunting for the US currency and the dollar rallied back to 116.50 in early Europe as trading conditions remained choppy.

There were no major warning comments from Finance Ministry officials on Monday, but there are likely to be significant comments if the yen strengthens through the 115  More...    More...



Liquidity and news flows falling in currency markets
CMC Markets Monday December 19, 2005 - 10:05:47 GMT

December 19th - Both liquidity and news volumes in currency markets are now starting to thin ahead of the Christmas break, leading to a degree of unexpected volatility and direction through the Asian session. Dominating many thoughts of those who remain in the market is the fact that the FOMC seem set to cut the cycle of rate hikes in the not too distant future and technically this stands to weigh on the dollar, but the Yen has lost some ground – edging back from seven week highs against the greenback – in the last few hours trade  More...    More...


FX Briefing
BHF-Bank Sunday December 18, 2005 - 23:47:35 GMT

FX Briefing 16 December 2005
Highlights
• Closing of short-yen positions triggers sharp correction
• Fed removes “accommodative”, but indicates further tightening
• Ifo index climbs to 5-year high

USD-JPY sell-off: all must go!
The forex market was shaken up thoroughly this week with the long scorned yen emerging as the winner  More...    More...



Contagion Contained, Not A Weak Dollar Trade/Trend Yet
Foreign Exchange Analytics Sunday December 18, 2005 - 23:31:45 GMT

Day three into a nasty round of contagion across the currency market (and gold...arguably now a quazi currency) has seen more bloodletting, especially for the kiwi/yen cross owners. But all in, the contagion is confined. Sure, the Nikkei longs have felt some heat as the yen spike hurt exporter stocks  More...    More...


FOREX: Weekly COT Analysis courtesy Cumino
Global-View Saturday December 17, 2005 - 13:19:20 GMT

Weekly COT Analysis courtesy Cumino.

SAVE AND UNZIP    More...



Forex - Yen Leads Movers This Past Week As Speculators Run for the Exit
FXCM Friday December 16, 2005 - 22:14:35 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-16-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

- Yen Leads Movers This Past Week As Speculators Run for the Exit
- Not Many Events to Take Focus Off Slower Rate Hikes in US Next Week
- Euro Rebounds After Stronger IFO


US Dollar

One day of losses is followed by another day of gains – that has been the story of the dollar against the Euro for the past seven trading days  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 16-Dec-2005....1338 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday December 16, 2005 - 13:47:54 GMT


Dear Traders,

Apologies for the second day running for not sending a full bodied update. Have had system problems, which will get sorted out today, hopefully. We should be back with our full service next week.

Please bear with us for another day  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (16 December 2005)
GCI Financial Friday December 16, 2005 - 13:06:28 GMT



The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2025 level and remained supported around the $1.1935 level. The common currency has been unable to make any headway after it briefly tested the $1  More...    More...



Rosy or not?
Black Swan Capital Friday December 16, 2005 - 11:39:46 GMT

Quotable

“A second general feature exemplified the October 1929 event is that a financial collapse has never happened when things look bad. On the contrary, macroeconomic flows look good before crashes. Before collapse, economists [not all] say the economy is in the best of all worlds  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Friday December 16, 2005 - 10:19:57 GMT

After a heavy fall in the USD, it now looks to consolidate

The impressive and long awaited JPY strength may continue. EUR/JPY close to very important support.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• UK Retail Sales MoM (Nov) out at 0  More...    More...



Yen extends gains over dollar, other majors largely unchanged.
CMC Markets Friday December 16, 2005 - 09:03:41 GMT

December 16th - The Yen has continued to march higher against the dollar after the Bank of Japan left its economic assessment unchanged for another month. The message is that the country’s economy continues to recover and this combined with expectations that US interest rate growth will soon slow and a general year-end unwinding of the JPY sell off that has been central to the market for the last 12 months is continuing to buoy the Yen  More...    More...


FOREX: TIC data analysis courtesy Cumino
Global-View Thursday December 15, 2005 - 22:53:51 GMT

Analysis of TIC data out earlier courtesy Cumino

SAVE AND UNZIP    More...



DailyFX Fundamentals 12-15-05
FXCM Thursday December 15, 2005 - 22:36:03 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-15-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Rebounds Thanks to Blockbuster TIC data
• Softer Eurozone Data Weighs on Euro
• Carry Traders Continue to Run for the Exits in USDJPY

US Dollar

The US set two new records this past week – a record trade deficit of -$68  More...    More...



China cuts holdings
FX Today Thursday December 15, 2005 - 14:55:48 GMT

The US economic data recorded a bigger than expected drop in consumer prices of 0.6%, but the core increase was in line with expectations at +0.2%. Capital inflows for October were strong at a record US$106.8bn, but the drop in Chinese holdings will cause some concern looking forward  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (15 December 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday December 15, 2005 - 14:21:24 GMT



The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$1.2040 level and was supported around the $1.1960 level. The common currency was up yesterday following the dollar’s massive sell-off vis-à-vis the yen  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday December 15, 2005 - 11:49:34 GMT

Key Points
• JPY position adjustment continues to drive FX market.
• NZD was the major beneficiary of JPY weakness and now it is the biggest loser.
• EUR-USD may struggle for direction while JPY noise is prevalent.
• Riksbank minutes signal split decision on rates  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 15-Dec-2005....1135 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday December 15, 2005 - 11:43:37 GMT

Dear Traders,

Apologies, but we have only 1 view/ trade today. Charts not working properly. Please bear with us.

$-Yen @ 116.04/08....TP on Short
--------------------------------------

Exit Trade:
TP at current level on Short entered at 117  More...    More...



Extremes...
Black Swan Capital Thursday December 15, 2005 - 11:25:36 GMT

Quotable

“And when we think we lead, we are most led.”

Lord Byron

FX Trading
Two former tried and true one-way bets are now moving the other way together—gold and $-yen, as you can clearly see in the chart below:


Does it mean the rationales so easily provided by those in the know are also falling by the wayside or is this just a “technical correction” to remove some speculative froth?

For the mathematically inclined in the crowd, the equation goes something like this:

Price Extremes = Consensus Extremes + Speculative Extremes

Two major consensus extremes in yen and gold, respectively, were:

• Japan won’t hike rates till late in 2006 and money flow from Japan to higher yielding currencies means the yen stays weak
• There is massive inflation in the system and gold is reflecting the decline in the purchasing power of all currencies

The speculative extremes were apparent in the open interest numbers (he says with the gift of hindsight)  More...    More...



SNB delivers rate increase
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday December 15, 2005 - 11:24:42 GMT

The Swiss franc strengthened towards 1.2750 against the dollar on Wednesday after the record US trade deficit, but the US currency recovered back above the 1.28 level. The Swiss currency strengthened back through 1.54 against the Euro on Wednesday, but retreated after the National Bank decision  More...    More...


Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Thursday December 15, 2005 - 10:44:25 GMT

Strong JPY remains in focus USD/JPY may be head for test of 116.00 or lower. USD/CAD may look higher.

US CPI and Empire Manufacturing on tap for today.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• US weekly energy storage inventories show mixed message  More...    More...



Dollar retreats against Yen in face of improving Japanese economic sentiment
CMC Markets Thursday December 15, 2005 - 08:37:06 GMT

December 15th - Upbeat economic data out of Japan in recent hours combined with yesterday’s surprise jump in the US trade deficit has had the inevitable consequence of pushing the Yen higher once again against the dollar. The retreat away from 120 has certainly been rapid and we’re now trading back at levels not seen since the start of November  More...    More...


Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday December 15, 2005 - 01:34:23 GMT

New Zealand Dollar NZD comfortable below 0.7100
The NZD settled below 0.7100 in a narrow range yesterday as the USD slipped to a six week-low against the euro and around 1% against the JPY after the US Federal Reserve lifted rates as expected but suggested rates were closer to neutral  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Collapses; Trade Deficit Hits Record High
FXCM Wednesday December 14, 2005 - 22:25:50 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-14-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Collapses; Trade Deficit Hits Record High
• Pound Rally Limited Following Weaker Data
• Dollar Yen Erases Past 26 Days of Hard Earned Gains

US Dollar

After Tuesday's tight trading range, the US dollar resumed its tumble against the majors  More...    More...



Trade fuels dollar descent
FX Today Wednesday December 14, 2005 - 14:32:39 GMT

The October US trade deficit was worse than expected at a record US$68.9bn from US$66.0bn in September as the deficit with China rose to a record. The deficit will further erode already weak dollar sentiment. There is the potential for a Euro challenge on 1  More...    More...


FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 14-Dec-2005.... 1232 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday December 14, 2005 - 12:40:24 GMT

Euro @ 1.2012/5....Resistance at 1.2040-70
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.2050 / 1.2070
S: 1.2000-1985 / 1.1965 / 1.1910
Fresh buying came in at 1.1985, as expected. A test of 1.2070 is now quite likely over the rest of the week  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday December 14, 2005 - 11:37:16 GMT

Key Points
• Fed drops ‘accommodation’ reference but suggests more tightening ahead.
• USD weakens as market spies possible end to tightening cycle, although sentiment could prove fickle on this issue.
• Tankan disappointment not enough to stem USDJPY liquidations  More...    More...



$ correction upon us
Black Swan Capital Wednesday December 14, 2005 - 11:23:28 GMT

Quotable

“Good taste and humour…are a contradiction in terms, like a chaste whore.”

Malcolm Muggeridge

FX Trading

The dollar correction is upon us.

There wasn’t much action in the bonds after the Fed’s one-quarter point hike and language change yesterday  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Wednesday December 14, 2005 - 11:21:23 GMT

JPY teaches the market a lesson overnight even on a Tankan survey that didn't meet expectations. FOMC statement slightly on the dovish side of expectations.

Fed nixes the word "accommodative" to describe current rate environment, but leaves room for movement ahead  More...    More...



FOMC consolidates recent dollar losses; Tankan buoys Yen.
CMC Markets Wednesday December 14, 2005 - 08:47:39 GMT

December 14th - Yesterday’s FOMC verdict on interest rates – and perhaps more importantly the accompanying comments – were widely awaited by currency traders and although the 25 basis point hike was already factored into prices, the indication that this hawkish stance over monetary policy might not have too long left has resulted in consolidation of the dollar’s recent move downward  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (14 December 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday December 14, 2005 - 06:24:20 GMT



The euro advanced higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2040 level and was supported around the $1.1930 level. The common currency spiked higher after the Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate decision was announced  More...    More...



Forex: Greenspan Leaves the Door Open for Bernanke
FXCM Tuesday December 13, 2005 - 22:11:37 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-13-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Greenspan Leaves the Door Open for Bernanke
• Pound Slides on Softer Inflation Report
• Yen Traders Looking Ahead to Stronger Tankan

US Dollar

Catching the market by surprise, the Fed released its decision 2 minutes early  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday December 13, 2005 - 22:05:41 GMT

New Zealand Dollar Back through 0.7100 ahead of Fed
The NZD spent yesterday in a tight range above 0.7100 as investors cast eyes towards this mornings US Federal Reserve rate decision that may signal an end to their 18 month tightening cycle. The currency dipped during the overnight session to a low of 0  More...    More...



Fed signals neutrality
FX Today Tuesday December 13, 2005 - 19:49:25 GMT

The US Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to 4.25%. In the statement the Fed dropped the phrase that policy was accommodative and pointed to the fact that further measured policy tightening would probably be needed. This suggests that the Fed will look to stop tightening after the January or March meetings  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (13 December 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday December 13, 2005 - 14:18:08 GMT



The euro gave back some of yesterday’s gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1905 level after encountering offers around the $1.1970 level. Technically, the common currency stopped just short of testing the 61  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 13-Dec-2005.... 1245 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday December 13, 2005 - 13:12:39 GMT

Euro @ 1.1922/5....Either 1.1975 or 1.1875
--------------------------------------------
R: 1.1975-85 / 1.2021-41
S: 1.1908 / 1.1885 / 1.1865-55
The Euro has dipped intra-day, but has found Support (so far) above 1.1908, as per expectation  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday December 13, 2005 - 12:00:28 GMT

Key Points
• USD stabilises after yesterday’s sharp correction.
• FOMC statement could boost the USD – accommodation reference may change but they are also likely to signal more tightening ahead.
• UK CPI weak – Eurozone/German ZEW strong  More...    More...



What to expect from the Fed
INVESTICA Ltd Tuesday December 13, 2005 - 11:05:22 GMT

The Euro gained further strong support in Europe on Monday with a move through important resistance levels. The Euro pushed above 1.1870 and 1.1900 with a move to 1.1980 before a corrective retreat on Tuesday. Expectations of a tough stance from the ECB and a strong German ZEW report also offered Euro support  More...    More...


Forex Trading Strategies.
Saxo Bank Tuesday December 13, 2005 - 10:33:36 GMT

USD crumbling ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting - will the outcome of the meeting accelerate the action or reverse it?

We vote for an acceleration toward the weak USD side, though the reaction may not be immediate. Fantastically important meeting on tap  More...    More...



Yen consolidates recent gains on dollar; further directional data awaited.
CMC Markets Tuesday December 13, 2005 - 08:42:34 GMT

December 13th - Some bullish economic data out of Japan overnight showing the third consecutive expansion of the country’s capacity utilization and industrial production has consolidated yesterday’s gains for the Yen, pushing USD JPY back below the 120 line to levels that haven’t been sustained since the end of last month  More...    More...


Forex: Ho Ho Ho, The USD's run is over ..... (for now)
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Tuesday December 13, 2005 - 06:00:08 GMT

Market Recap

The US dollar was trading mixed against the major currency pairs, but further profit-taking is likely on expectations that the Federal Reserve may be close to a peak in interest rates.
The US dollar was heavily sold overnight as traders anticipate a less hawkish statement from tonight's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where a 13th consecutive 25 percentage basis point hike is fully priced  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Sells off on Fear That Fed Will Change Language
FXCM Monday December 12, 2005 - 23:17:42 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-12-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Sells off on Fear That Fed Will Change Language
• Euro Rallies on Talk of Dollar Reserve Diversification
• Pound Shoots Higher on Stronger PPI Data

US Dollar

Traders took the dollar lower today on fears that the Federal Reserve may be making significant changes to their FOMC statement tomorrow afternoon  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday December 12, 2005 - 19:54:20 GMT

New Zealand Dollar NZD back above 0.7100
Yesterday’s Q3 terms of trade number fell on the back of rising oil prices, however that was not enough to hold the NZD back. The currency gained more than 1% against the USD yesterday as the greenback fell across the board  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (12 December 2005)
GCI Financial Monday December 12, 2005 - 15:38:07 GMT



The euro gained solid ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1975 level and was supported around the $1.1775 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was just below the 61.8% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 12-Dec-2005....1151 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday December 12, 2005 - 12:13:12 GMT

Euro @ 1.1886/89....Breaking out on the upside
---------------------------------------------------
R: 1.1885/ 1.1904-15 / 1.1965-69
S: 1.1868 / 1.1850 / 1.1835-25
The Euro has risen past 1.1850. The statistically projected Max High for today at 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Monday December 12, 2005 - 11:34:38 GMT

Key Points
Key Points
• USD softens up a little further ahead of FOMC, but upside favoured after Tuesday.
• Chinese comment also hurts USD.
• JPY weakness continues despite ongoing build-up in short positioning.

Market Outlook
The USD was fairly soft in Asia and weakened further in Europe this morning with liquidation risk showing itself ahead of tomorrow’s key FOMC meeting  More...    More...



Beautiful credit!
Black Swan Capital Monday December 12, 2005 - 11:29:44 GMT

Quotable

“All is not hopeless. Markets are turbulent, deceptive, prone to bubbles, infested by false trends. It may well be that you cannot forecast prices. But evaluating risk is another matter entirely.”

Benoit Mandlebrot

FX Trading

“Beautiful credit! The foundation of modern society  More...    More...



UK Pre-Budget points to higher government debt for years to come
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday December 12, 2005 - 11:19:37 GMT

Economics Weekly: UK Pre-Budget points to higher government debt for years to come

There were a lot of announcements in the 2005 Pre-Budget Report (PBR), but the key changes were a major rise in government borrowing (expenditure remains well ahead of revenue, see chart A) and a sharp downgrading of growth projections for this year and next  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Monday December 12, 2005 - 11:09:33 GMT

USDJPY still capped at 121.40

The Japanse data out today in Asia, did little for USDJPY's inability to reach new highs we may soon see a break of 120.00 which would give scope for a deeper correction to the 118.20 area.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
Australia
• Government raises forecast for Commodity exports  More...    More...



FOMC, Tankan and oil prices in focus for currency traders
CMC Markets Monday December 12, 2005 - 09:14:25 GMT

December 12th - The dollar is failing to make any significant headway over last week’s losses against the major currencies as traders remain cautious ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting where although a 25 basis point hike is seen as inevitable, it’s a change in longer term sentiment that the market will be looking for  More...    More...


Forex: Big Week Ahead for the Dollar
FXCM Friday December 9, 2005 - 22:43:13 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-09-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Big Week Ahead for the Dollar
• Pound Rallies after Stronger Trade Data
• MoF Comments Weighs on Yen

US Dollar

The end of the year is approaching and unless we get some interesting price action next week, we may really be stuck in range bound modes for the remainder of the year  More...    More...



FX Briefing 9 December 2005
BHF-Bank Friday December 9, 2005 - 20:35:55 GMT

FX Briefing 9 December 2005
Highlights
• BoJ indicates possible end of zero rate policy, but dampens rate rise concern
• Production and order data confirms recovery in Germany
• Rating warning because of current account deficit hits NZD

Japan: economy top, currency flop
The dollar’s upward trend turned into a sideways movement at the beginning of this week   More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (9 December 2005)
GCI Financial Friday December 9, 2005 - 15:58:51 GMT



The euro came off marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1765 level and was capped around the $1.1825 level. Technically, today’s intraday low is right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 09-Dec-2005....1237 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday December 9, 2005 - 12:57:26 GMT

Euro @ 1.1808/11....Range rules, OK?
-----------------------------------
R: 1.1800 / 1.1850
S: 1.1750 / 1.1700 / 1.1660
The Euro is clearly ranged between 1.1850-1660 and is expected to stay within it till the FOMC is done and over with on Tuesday  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday December 9, 2005 - 12:54:13 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD fails to build on yesterday’s gains. Market is essentially waiting for Tuesday’s FOMC meeting.
• NZD steadier but upside limited ahead of Tuesday’s retail sales.
• French manufacturing output falls sharply. US Michigan sentiment features today  More...    More...



Inflation or financial speculation?
Black Swan Capital Friday December 9, 2005 - 12:14:48 GMT

Quotable

“Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have lost at all.”

Samuel Butler

FX Trading

One consistently wonders why economics garners so much respect from the studious and precise mathematics crowd when we have trouble answering a simple question: Is what we are seeing global inflation or simply highly levered financial speculation?

There is a broad group that says don’t worry about inflation as long as the core rate is tame  More...    More...



Dollar faces key test
INVESTICA Ltd Friday December 9, 2005 - 11:08:46 GMT

Euro gains accelerated after the break of 1.1785 with gains to a peak near 1.1850 as trading volatility increased in New York. The Euro was unable to hold the gains and weakened back to 1.1775 in early Europe on Friday.

There is the potential for a further closing of long dollar positions in the short term, especially with year-end pressures starting to build, while there will also be caution ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next Tuesday  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Friday December 9, 2005 - 10:49:20 GMT

Only three more trading days to most important FOMC meeting in recent memory. USD move could be explosive.

Massive downward adjustment in Japan's Q3 GDP figures makes us wonder at the reliability of the growth figures from Japan.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• US Weekly Natural Gas Storage showed a draw of -59 bcf vs  More...    More...



Dollar consolidates ahead of Michigan statement, FOMC and Tankan.
CMC Markets Friday December 9, 2005 - 09:11:45 GMT

December 9th - After profit taking later in yesterday’s session against the dollar, markets appear to be looking at extending the run of consolidation up to the weekend. Michigan consumer sentiment data could provide some additional direction in the shorter term, but the dollar’s run of gains through 2005 may now come to an end as consensus starts to build that the FOMC’s hawkish stance over interest rates must change at some point in the coming months  More...    More...


Forex: Dollar Slides as Weather Cools
FXCM Thursday December 8, 2005 - 22:06:09 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-08-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

- Dollar Slides as Weather Cools
- Pound Rallies after BoE Leaves Rates Unchanged
- Yen Rebounds on Hawkish Comments from Fukui

US Dollar

Watching the price action in the dollar over the past six days has been very similar to watching a child on a see-saw – two days of losses reversed by one day of gains  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday December 8, 2005 - 20:26:47 GMT

New Zealand Dollar NZD sold again
The NZD opened on its highs yesterday and, for the second day in a row, it looked weak from the beginning. With NZD already under pressure before the RBNZ announcement, it was quickly down to 0.7005 after the 25bps hike and statement, but the currency did manage a bounce up to 0  More...    More...



FOREX GVI Monthly Forex Survey Results
Global-View Thursday December 8, 2005 - 16:18:28 GMT

In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar was now almost neutral against the euro. The three month ahead mean forecast for EURUSD was 1.1764 from 1.2143 a month earlier  More...    More...


FOREX: GVI monthly Forex Survey Results Analysis by Cumino
Global-View Thursday December 8, 2005 - 16:14:42 GMT

Analysis courtesy Cumino:

GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).

COMMENT:
EUR USD 3 months: 1st day close 1  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (8 December 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday December 8, 2005 - 15:54:37 GMT



The euro rallied vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1790 level and was supported around the $1.1705 level. Technically, today’s high is right around the 50% retracement of the recent depreciation from $1  More...    More...



Where next for interest rates?
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday December 8, 2005 - 13:58:12 GMT

The US Federal Reserve is likely to increase rates again to 4.25% in December, but the January decision will be close and there is likely to be a pause soon as underlying inflation should stay under control while the economy is likely to cool. There is also a 30% chance that there will be no rate increase during 2006  More...    More...


Forex:Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday December 8, 2005 - 13:17:30 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD stabilises - modest upside risk ahead of FOMC.
• USD-JPY softer, heading for support at 120.00-20.
• NZD continues to correct sharply – RBNZ highlights Jekyll and Hyde features of the NZD.

Market Outlook
DEUR-USD has recovered a little in Europe within the current range and there could be some increasing risk to the topside due to uncertainty going into Tuesday’s FOMC  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 08-Dec-2005... 1156 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday December 8, 2005 - 12:56:57 GMT

Euro @ 1.1776/9.....Ranged as ever
----------------------------------
R: 1.1788 / 1.1809-20
S: 1.1739 / 1.1708
The trading range seems to be 1.1708-1788 now, or maybe 1.1688-1820. Continue to suggest trading this range while it lasts  More...    More...



Sterling correction continues
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday December 8, 2005 - 12:09:47 GMT

Sterling weakened to just below the 1.73 level against the dollar on Wednesday before a recovery back to 1.7350. Wider dollar weakness allowed the UK currency to push back above 1.74 in early Europe on Thursday with a move to 1.7450. There is the potential for a challenge on 1  More...    More...


Dollar corrective catalysts...
Black Swan Capital Thursday December 8, 2005 - 11:45:48 GMT

Quotable

“Disputes with men, pertinaciously obstinate in their principles, are, of all others, the most irksome; except, perhaps, those with persons, entirely disingenuous, who really do not believe the opinions they defend, but engage in the controversy, from affection, from a spirit of opposition, or from a desire of showing wit and ingenuity, superior to the rest of mankind  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Thursday December 8, 2005 - 11:10:01 GMT

JPY showing signs of a comeback as Japanese stock market fails - EUR/JPY looking like a reversal candidate.

NZD trainwreck may continue to unfold despite another 25 bp RBNZ hike to 7.25%.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• UK BRC Shop Price Index fell -0  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday December 8, 2005 - 00:46:02 GMT

New Zealand Dollar NZD: reversal of fortune
It was a different sort of day for the NZD yesterday, and a complete turnaround in recent sentiment. After opening the day around 0.7175 NZD traded a tight range for the morning, then after bearish comments from ratings agency Standard & Poor’s NZD dropped sharply, falling to 0  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Quietly Rallies Ahead of Next Week’s Fed Meeting
FXCM Wednesday December 7, 2005 - 22:14:17 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-07-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Quietly Rallies Ahead of Next Week’s Fed Meeting
• Pound Slides as Market Thinks Treasury is Too Optimistic
• Tanigaki Confirms There is No Need to Worry About Yen Movements

US Dollar

The dollar quietly gained strength today as the market traded with little direction  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (7 December 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday December 7, 2005 - 18:07:26 GMT



The euro extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1705 level and was capped around the $1.1805 level. Technically, the common currency’s failure to hold the $1.1760/ 65 level – the 23  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 07-Dec-2005....1158 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday December 7, 2005 - 12:21:55 GMT

Euro @ 1.1716/19....Either Ranged or Bearish
--------------------------------------------
R: 1.1750-58 / 1.1779 / 1.1796
S: 1.1697-88-77 / 1.1660 / 1.1638
From one point of view, the Euro is currently ranged between 1.1688-1845 for a few days, as mentioned in the morning  More...    More...



Still searching for inflation
Black Swan Capital Wednesday December 7, 2005 - 12:17:18 GMT

Quotable

“If you don’t profit from your investment mistakes, someone else will.”

Yale Hirsch

FX Trading
We are still hunting for the elusive “runaway” inflation that will force the Fed to hike rates farther and faster  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday December 7, 2005 - 11:33:13 GMT

Key Points
• JPY corrects against number of currencies – especially AUD and NZD.
• USD also stronger but EUR-USD should remain well supported ahead of FOMC meeting.
• USD-CAD back above 1.1600.
• US Challenger lay-offs, consumer credit feature today – Australian employment and RBNZ outcome tonight  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Wednesday December 7, 2005 - 11:17:39 GMT

USD/JPY survives an overnight dip as USD eases stronger again despite falling US yields. USD/CAD at resistance - failure to hold could mean 1.1700.

NZD bludgeoned on S&P downgrade threat. Australian growth disappoints.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• US Pending Home Sales for October out at -3  More...    More...



Australian dollar correction
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday December 7, 2005 - 10:57:15 GMT

The Australian dollar strengthened to 0.7540 against the US currency during Tuesday, but the currency weakened back to 0.7460 in Asian trading on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank interest rate decision was in line with expectations with no change at 5.5%, but the GDP data was weaker than expected with the third-quarter increase held at 0  More...    More...


Yen remains vulnerable despite upbeat economic data; Bank of England meets to discuss interest rates.
CMC Markets Wednesday December 7, 2005 - 08:43:14 GMT

December 7th - The Yen continues to look vulnerable against the dollar and remains well beyond the key 120 level. Oil data due for release today may provide some direction as the fact crude is sitting around the $60 mark is doubtless hampering the country’s economic recovery, although data released overnight – Japan’s coincident index and leading economic index – were in line with expectations, showing solid signs of expansion over the next 6 months  More...    More...


Forex: Dollar Traders Weary as Housing Market Data Turns Sour
FXCM Tuesday December 6, 2005 - 22:29:57 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-06-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

- Dollar Traders Weary as Housing Market Data Turns Sour
- Pound Recuperates Losses Despite Weaker Data
- Yen Bears Continue to Take the Lead

US Dollar

Although the dollar ended the day relatively unchanged against the other majors, it failed to avoid some choppy intraday price action  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday December 6, 2005 - 19:44:38 GMT

New Zealand Dollar NZD consolidates gains
The NZD started yesterday at the top of its range and gradually decreased in value over the course of the day. In early trading the NZD went as high as 0.7200 but again failed to push through as selling took hold  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (6 December 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday December 6, 2005 - 14:44:03 GMT



The euro came off marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1760 level and was capped just below the $1.1800 figure. Technically, today’s intraday low is right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



Forex: G7 Meeting Noted For What Was Not Discussed (Not A Concern)
Foreign Exchange Analytics Tuesday December 6, 2005 - 13:01:33 GMT

It was not so long ago that G7 meetings were hugely important to financial markets and currency traders in particular. But G7 is no longer the event risk it once was as markets have moved on to far more diverse concerns like US Treasury long-term capital flow reports and the US Treasury semi-annual report to Congress on FX policies of major US trading partners  More...    More...


FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 06-Dec-2005....1206 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday December 6, 2005 - 12:13:18 GMT

Euro @ 1.1778/81....Whipsaw mode
-----------------------------------
R: 1.1785-96 / 1.1820
S: 1.1761-49 / 1.1722-09 / 1.1688
The Euro seems to be in whipsaw mode between 1.1839 and 1.1709 on the 4-hour and Daily charts. Within this, there are chances of a fall towards 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday December 6, 2005 - 12:13:09 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD set to range trade ahead of FOMC meeting.
• Focus remains on other currencies like NZD, AUD, CAD and the JPY.
• Brown delivers usual smoke and mirrors. GBP hurt by weak manufacturing.
• Swedish GDP helps EUR-SEK below key short-term support  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Tuesday December 6, 2005 - 10:56:31 GMT

Weak USD picture beginning to look convincing. Dare we guess that USD/JPY has seen the top for now?

Very quiet couple of days ahead on the US economic data front as anticipation of next Tuesday's FOMC mounts. Bank of Canada up today.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• US ISM Non-manufacturing Index for November was out with a reading of 58  More...    More...



Cable holds onto upside despite downbeat government forecasts
CMC Markets Tuesday December 6, 2005 - 08:59:10 GMT

December 6th - News yesterday from the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer that the country’s economy had struggled through much of 2005 failed to detract from Sterling in recent trade, with the Pound trading in relatively tight ranges against the common currency and having maintained most of last night’s gains over the greenback  More...    More...


Forex: Snow Falls to the Ground and So Does the Dollar
FXCM Monday December 5, 2005 - 22:25:44 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-05-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

- Snow Falls to the Ground and So Does the Dollar
- Euro Rebounds on Airbus Order
- Yen Loses Ground on Lack of Concern by Government Officials

US Dollar

With last week’s US non-farm payrolls report, ECB and G7 meetings now behind us, it may be natural to assume that the markets will be quieting down for the remainder of the year  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday December 5, 2005 - 20:37:28 GMT

New Zealand Dollar NZD continues strong run
The NZD started the week on a strong note yesterday, continuing the recent surge in buying seen last Friday. The currency opened the day on its lows around 0.7115 and after a fairly quiet morning was bought steadily in the afternoon to around 0  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (5 December 2005)
GCI Financial Monday December 5, 2005 - 15:21:26 GMT



The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1785 level and was supported around the $1.1685 level. The common currency gapped lower about fifteen pips from Friday’s close but soon recovered and gained ground in the European session  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 05-12-05....1229 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday December 5, 2005 - 12:36:04 GMT

Euro @ 1.1739/42....Confusion again?
-----------------------------------------
R: 1.1753-65-72 / 1.1806 / 1.1835
S: 1.1716-12 / 1.1690 / 1.1660
The Euro has just shot up in the last hour or so. Our Short at 1.1710 has just got stopped out at 1  More...    More...



A yen elixir for Asia?
Black Swan Capital Monday December 5, 2005 - 11:56:00 GMT

“One can never be sure whether it is the expectation that corresponds to the subsequent event or the subsequent event that conforms to expectation. The segregation between thoughts and events that prevails in natural science is simply missing.”

George Soros

FX Trading
A very interesting non-expectation that may have an underlying reason—at least a discernable one—is playing out before our eyes: The Japanese yen is tanking, while assorted other Asian currencies are doing just fine against the dollar  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Monday December 5, 2005 - 11:34:35 GMT

Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD looks well underpinned, although apprehension ahead of next week’s FOMC may constrain appetite this week.
• Weak JPY theme persists - NZD and AUD continue to benefit.
• US non-manufacturing ISM and UK pre-Budget Report feature today  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Monday December 5, 2005 - 11:24:59 GMT

Forex Trading Strategies

Market defaults to an even weaker JPY as EUR/JPY breaks to new 7-year high. We remain at Defcon 1 with this JPY in a blow-off weakening phase.

Jury still out on EUR/USD as rangebound activity enters its second month  More...    More...



Economics Weekly: UK Pre-Budget Report 2005 – what can be expected?
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday December 5, 2005 - 11:12:52 GMT

Latest official view on the economy
The UK Chancellor will this week deliver his end of year Pre-Budget Report (PBR) to Parliament. As ever, it will be eagerly awaited by the financial markets. In the period since taking office in 1997, the Chancellor has generally been more accurate in his forecasts of the UK economy and the pubic finances than independent forecasters  More...    More...



Sterling looks for investment inflows
INVESTICA Ltd Monday December 5, 2005 - 10:55:33 GMT

Sterling dropped to 1.7250 against the US dollar on Friday after the US employment report before recovering sharply to 1.7370. Trading conditions were choppy as position adjustment continued, but the UK currency was holding above 1.73 against the dollar. Sterling was little changed in early Europe on Monday with the UK currency still hampered by a firm dollar  More...    More...


Beijing in focus as traders look for news of Yuan revaluation
CMC Markets Monday December 5, 2005 - 09:01:08 GMT

December 5th - The inevitable Yuan revaluation that has been discussed frequently through 2005 looks set to play a leading role in currency markets as we approach the year end. Many are suggesting that the continued appreciation of the dollar against the Yen is tied to the fact that there could be further news out of Beijing in the coming days and a move for USD JPY down towards 122 now seems to be on the cards  More...    More...


Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Sunday December 4, 2005 - 21:54:44 GMT

New Zealand Dollar NZD pushes through 0.7100
After a relatively quiet local session on Friday, the NZD benefited from volatile offshore trading. Opening around 0.7040, the currency was bought steadily to a high of 0.7071, in pretty much one-way trading  More...    More...



GVI Forex Research - - COT Analysis Courtesy Cumino
Global-View Saturday December 3, 2005 - 11:42:15 GMT

COT Report courtesy Cumino

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FX Briefing 2 December 2005
BHF-Bank Friday December 2, 2005 - 16:39:46 GMT

Highlights
• USD-JPY reaches new 31-month high at 120.94
• ECB raises interest rate to 2.25%, inflation risks remain
• US growth in Q3 revised significantly upwards, expansion continues in Q4

Those who are declared dead live longer: US economy is buzzing
The dollar had a slight relapse at the beginning of the week  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (2 December 2005)
GCI Financial Friday December 2, 2005 - 15:30:19 GMT



The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1685 level and was capped around the $1.1745 level. The common currency actually moved into positive territory on the day after the release of November U  More...    More...



FX-Thoughts for the day- Evening - 02-12-05 ... 1250 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday December 2, 2005 - 14:57:26 GMT


Euro @ 1.1702/05....Support 1.1676. Resistance 1.1750
-----------------------------------------------------
R: 1.1730 / 1.1752 / 1.1768-75
S: 1.1696 / 1.1676 / 1.1643-38-30
Starting to look distinctly bearish. Immediate Support at 1  More...    More...



Nikkei-$: The trend is your friend!
Black Swan Capital Friday December 2, 2005 - 11:42:00 GMT

Quotable

“What feels good or is psychologically appealing is not necessarily profitable.”

F.J. Chu

FX Trading
You remember the old saying? As the Nikkei goes, so goes the dollar! Actually, I just created that—it’s my new saying  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday December 2, 2005 - 11:02:53 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD soft after ECB meeting and US ISM.
• JPY remains weak across the board.
• G7 meeting, US/Canadian employment feature.

Market Outlook
EUR-USD has remained soft overnight following an ECB meeting and press conference that failed to boost expectations about the extent of further rate hikes  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Friday December 2, 2005 - 10:55:42 GMT

Mixed picture as the dollars of the world are on a roll while EUR and especially JPY are weak. US employment data today may keep the action white hot.

We could see a strong US employment reading today - but will it trigger a stronger USD? Seems like we could see plenty more movement today  More...    More...



Dollar probes resistance
INVESTICA Ltd Friday December 2, 2005 - 10:53:59 GMT

The Euro was unable to push above the 1.18 level against the dollar on Thursday and Euro weakened back to 1.17 in New York following the ECB press conference and was holding close to 1.17 in early Europe on Friday ahead of the payroll report.

The potential for central bank Euro buying will be watched closely below the 1  More...    More...



USD JPY breaks through 120, 0% interest rates set to remain at BoJ
CMC Markets Friday December 2, 2005 - 08:42:57 GMT

December 2nd – The Yen has broken through the key 120 level against the dollar for the first time since August 2003 with the ECB rate hike yesterday apparently highlighting the continued absence of any yield on JPY deposits. Furthermore, estimations as to when the Bank of Japan may be able to look at tightening monetary policy do seem to be slipping and earlier suggestions that interest rates would rise in April of next year are now being revised by many in the market  More...    More...


Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Friday December 2, 2005 - 01:35:27 GMT

New Zealand Dollar NZD’s consolidation continues
Thursday proved to be a very quiet day for the NZD in the currency markets. The NZD has been entrenched in a tight range above 0.7000 for much of the week and yesterday was no different. While the major currencies traded with plenty of volatility yesterday, NZD/USD traded with no directional bias and remained in a 0  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Rallies Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls
FXCM Thursday December 1, 2005 - 22:21:15 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-01-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

- Dollar Rallies Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls
- ECB Rate Hike Fails to Bolster Euro
- Dollar Yen Breaks 120 while Nikkei Closes Above 15,000

US Dollar

With non-farm payrolls right around the corner, dollar bulls have jumped back into the markets  More...    More...



Trichet prompts Euro losses
FX Today Thursday December 1, 2005 - 15:24:43 GMT

The data during Thursday was close to market expectations and the ECB also delivered the expected 0.25% rate increase to 2.25%. The Euro weakened against the dollar after ECB Chairman Trichet indicated that the bank did not have a plans at this stage for a series of increases  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (1 December 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday December 1, 2005 - 15:15:52 GMT



The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1705 level after running into offers around the $1.1805 level. As expected, European Central Bank raised the minimum refinancing bid – its headline short-term interest rate – by 25bps to 2  More...    More...



A comparative case study in $/JPY
Trendways Thursday December 1, 2005 - 13:09:14 GMT

A comparative case study in $/JPY. The current case resembles the one seen in the three month uptrend back in December 2002 to February 2002. After a long lasting uptrend the unit reached 135 and looked unable to break that wall. Finally, after several failed attempts the level gave way but, as the market wa expecting heavy stops to get triggered, prices extended to only 135  More...    More...


FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 01-12-05....1207 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday December 1, 2005 - 12:15:52 GMT

Euro @ 1.1768/71....Anywhere 'tween 1.1690-1861
-----------------------------------------------
R: 1.1861
S: 1.1690
The Euro can trade anywhere between the abovementioned levels (or not trade at all) today and possibly even tomorrow  More...    More...



Is partial inversion telling us something?
Black Swan Capital Thursday December 1, 2005 - 11:51:05 GMT

Quotable

“The further we progress in our knowledge, the more clearly we can discern the vastness of our ignorance.”

Sir Karl Popper

FX Trading
US bond prices have balked a bit on “good” growth gleaned from Q3 GDP and “bad” inflation news brought to us by the Fed’s Beige Book yesterday  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday December 1, 2005 - 10:53:06 GMT

Key Points
• US data releases rather than ECB policy actions are a more probable source of EUR-USD movement today and tomorrow.
• 25bp ECB hike likely – very small chance of 50bp.
• 120 barrier on USD-JPY remains intact, but upside risk is growing  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Thursday December 1, 2005 - 10:37:37 GMT

A new month has us looking for a new direction in the USD - a move weaker could be soon and it could be explosive.

Still the risk of one last capitulation to the downside in EUR/USD, but neither the USD nor stock markets responding to positive US data - if this continues, we'll look for 1  More...    More...



Currencies poised for ECB verdict and new-month economic data
CMC Markets Thursday December 1, 2005 - 09:28:51 GMT

December 1st - Traders may have already factored a 25 basis point rate hike from the ECB today into currency prices, although there’s going to be a lot of attention focused on the bank’s accompanying comments. The market is really going to require some solid signals that this won’t be a one-off hike and consensus appears to be that unless there’s a suggestion that at least a further 50 basis points will be added through 2006 then the common currency may be left looking somewhat exposed on the downside  More...    More...


Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday November 30, 2005 - 19:53:45 GMT

New Zealand Dollar NZD range trades above 0.7000
The NZD consolidated above 0.7000 but ran into stiff resistance around 0.7050 to range trade for much of Wednesday. Oct dwelling consents were worse than expected, coming out at –6.7% against expectations of +5  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (30 November 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday November 30, 2005 - 14:50:31 GMT



The euro lost ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1750 level and was capped around the $1.1795 level. The big news for the common currency will be tomorrow’s European Central Bank Governing Council meeting in which policymakers are largely expected to lift the official main refinancing rate by 25bp to 2  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 30-11-05....1224 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday November 30, 2005 - 12:40:33 GMT

Euro-Yen @ 140.72/77....Chances of significant heights
------------------------------------------------------

R: 141.17 / 141.56
S: 140.43 / 140.16
The Cross is just a short distance away from the previous Highs of 141  More...    More...



$ - Gold - yen
Black Swan Capital Wednesday November 30, 2005 - 11:46:17 GMT

Quotable

“There is nothing like desire for preventing the things one says from bearing any resemblance to what one has in one’s mind.”

Marcel Proust

FX Trading
Is gold due for a rest? Will the dollar follow? Or is the dollar leading?




A very interesting piece in The Financial Times penned by Steven Johnson yesterday, “Yield pattern of the leading currencies ‘poised for reversal’”:

• “Yield does not always drive currency markets  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday November 30, 2005 - 11:42:48 GMT

Key Points
• General air of uncertainty suggests range trading for USD today.
• NZD pulls back from new highs against AUD.
• US GDP, Chicago PMI, Beige Book and Canadian GDP feature today.

Market Outlook
Yesterday’s stronger than expected US economic releases helped to ease some of the pressure on the USD that emerged after Monday’s weak data  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Wednesday November 30, 2005 - 11:34:07 GMT

Market shrugs off massive US confidence number as temperature heats up ahead of Fed Beige Book today and ECB tomorrow.

Strong data out from Australia overnight - but AUD/NZD slips to new 30-year low.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• US Consumer Confidence for November out at 98  More...    More...



Markets set for Euro rate hike although implications may be damaging in New Year
CMC Markets Wednesday November 30, 2005 - 09:24:53 GMT

November 30th - Additional robust economic news coming out of the Eurozone – including French unemployment falling to a two year low and an increase in German wholesale sales - appears to be firming consensus amongst traders that the ECB will see fit to add 25 basis points to interest rates at tomorrow’s meeting, marking the first change of monetary policy by the bank since early 2003  More...    More...


Forex: How are you suppossed to trade the market with all the economic data, and political commentary coming out at the moment
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Wednesday November 30, 2005 - 05:33:32 GMT

Market Recap
The US dollar was trading firmer against the euro and yen, and is expected to be supported by solid economic data releases, despite Thursday's expected rate hike in the euro zone.
The US dollar rallied overnight after strong US consumer confidence, durable good orders and new homes sales data indicating firm US economic activity well above that in the euro zone or Japan  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Rebounds Thanks to Strong Data
FXCM Tuesday November 29, 2005 - 21:44:49 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 11-29-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Rebounds Thanks to Strong Data
• Muted UK Data Fails to Prop British Pound
• Dollar Yen (USDJPY) Erases Losses

US Dollar

As we have warned, the abundance of global data due out this week could cause a great deal of volatility in the currency markets  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday November 29, 2005 - 20:29:31 GMT

New Zealand Dollar NZD holds above 0.70 US cents
The NZD was staunch in the face of positive US economic data yesterday and held onto the 0.7000 handle for much of the day. The NZD has remained strong over the past week, gaining ground on all major currencies helped by the yield attraction and despite market commentators’ warnings of a hard landing for the economy  More...    More...



Data boost for dollar
FX Today Tuesday November 29, 2005 - 15:34:17 GMT

The US data was all stronger than expected on Tuesday with durable goods orders rising 3.4% for October while new home sales increased to 1.42mn for the month. Consumer confidence also strengthened to 98.9 in November from 90.0 in October. The US data should prevent a short-term Euro break out on the upside with further range trading likely, but good Euro support realistic close to 1  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (29 November 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday November 29, 2005 - 14:38:41 GMT



The euro retraced some of yesterday’s solid gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1775 level after encountering selling pressure around the $1.1860 level. The pair scored good gains yesterday after the release of weaker-than-expected U  More...    More...



Forex Weekly COT Analysis Courtesy Cumino
Global-View Tuesday November 29, 2005 - 14:08:45 GMT

Weekly COT Report courtesy Cumino

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One-day wonder or something more?
Black Swan Capital Tuesday November 29, 2005 - 12:06:02 GMT

Quotable

“Love built on beauty, soon as beauty, dies.”

John Donne

FX Trading
Did we see the beginning of a dollar “correction” yesterday, or was it simply a one-day wonder?

If we had to grasp at fundamental reasons (or swing in fundamental expectations) behind a dollar correction, we would grab on to the same others are talking about—a Fed blink! The catalyst yesterday seemed twofold:

1) From The Wall Street Journal:

“In an unusual event known as a partial inversion of the yield curve, investors kept buying five-year Treasury notes until their yield, which reflects expectations of how the economy will fare over the next several years, fell below the yield on two-year notes, which tracks expectations of what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates in the shorter term  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday November 29, 2005 - 11:54:43 GMT

Key Points
• US data is creating market nervousness. EUR-USD underpinned ahead of key US releases later in the week.
• Japanese data slightly disappointing.
• Eurozone M3 mixed – UK mortgage approvals stronger than expected.
• US durable orders, consumer confidence and new home sales feature today  More...    More...



Speculative excess supports Sterling
INVESTICA Ltd Tuesday November 29, 2005 - 11:12:27 GMT

Sterling was subjected to a high degree of volatility in trading on Monday with the UK currency buffeted by dollar moves. Sterling weakened to lows close to 1.7050 against the US currency in early Europe, but the UK currency gained strongly in New York as wider dollar losses propelled Sterling to highs of 1  More...    More...


Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Tuesday November 29, 2005 - 11:03:00 GMT

Massive USD reversal on little news yesterday as market temperature suddenly rises. 1.1900 looks key for EUR/USD.

US Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Orders up today. EUR/JPY closing in on 7-year highs at 141.60.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• US Existing Home Sales for October were out at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 7  More...    More...



Dollar retreats again as mixed economic data leaves traders lacking confidence
CMC Markets Tuesday November 29, 2005 - 09:04:17 GMT

November 29th - The greenback retreated further through the Asian session against major currencies after yesterday’s downbeat existing home sales data took the shine off the sharp increase in consumer spending that was reported over the holiday weekend. Essentially it’s going to be a case of waiting for fresh numbers due over the coming days before deciding if the dollar can resume its upward trend, although with the transition into December, there’s no shortage of data available  More...    More...


Forex: Euro Reversal Underway
FXCM Monday November 28, 2005 - 21:11:53 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 11-28-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Euro Reversal Underway
• Busy Week Could Deliver Volatile Moves in Dollar
• Yen Rebound Could be Short-lived

US Dollar

On a day devoid of any significant economic data, we saw a violent reversal in the dollar  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday November 28, 2005 - 20:23:05 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: High yielding NZD flies high
A broadly weaker US dollar and a lack of risk aversion helped the NZD rally to a one-month high against the USD and remain at eight-year highs against the Sterling, yen and euro and 10-year highs against the AUD  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (28 November 2005)
GCI Financial Monday November 28, 2005 - 16:02:41 GMT



The euro retraced intraday losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today and tested offers around the US$ 1.1765 level after earlier plumbing lows around the $1.1680 level. Today’s intraday high is right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



Forex: There could be trouble ahead - from global imbalances
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday November 28, 2005 - 13:07:10 GMT

Economics Weekly: There could be trouble ahead - from global imbalances

Are imbalances getting worse?
Financial market anomalies that are sending signals about conflicting views held by investors about trends in inflation, interest rates, equity prices, profits, and economic growth are proliferating and getting more pronounced  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 28-11-05...1159 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday November 28, 2005 - 12:17:36 GMT

Euro @ 1.1710/13....Cautiously Short
-------------------------------------
R: 1.1718 / 1.1731-5 / 1.1759-63 / 1.1790
S: 1.1681-76 / 1.1655-41 / 1.1626-16
The Euro has inched up a bit since the morning. Very important Resistance at 1  More...    More...



$ bull items
Black Swan Capital Monday November 28, 2005 - 11:37:23 GMT

Quotable

“The chief danger to our philosophy, apart from laziness and woolliness, is scholasticism…which is treating what is vague as if it were precise…”

F.P. Ramsey

FX Trading
We received some interesting comments on the Elliott Wave chart we provided on Wednesday  More...    More...



Dollar faces data tests
INVESTICA Ltd Monday November 28, 2005 - 11:10:05 GMT

The Euro remained weak on Monday and retreated to below the 1.17 level against the US currency before a recovery back above this level.

The markets are now taking a more optimistic stance on US interest rates with confidence that the Fed would continue the policy of interest rate increases in the short term  More...    More...



FX Briefing
BHF-Bank Monday November 28, 2005 - 10:55:17 GMT

FX Briefing 25 November 2005

Highlights
• Forex markets preoccupied with to and fro of monetary polic
• Fed remains clearly the more aggressive central bank
• Economic data confirm robust US economy

Monetary policy brings movement into EUR-USD
It is nothing new that central bank policy in the major currency areas is currently having a strong influence on EUR-USD  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Outlook
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday November 28, 2005 - 10:40:58 GMT

Summary
Central bank events in the euro zone and the US spearhead a busy economic agenda this week. Investors are likely to concentrate on what will be one of the last keynote speeches by Fed Chairman Greenspan as a potential catalyst for volatility in the currency and bond markets, looking for confirmation that their dovish interpretation of last week’s Fed minutes was right  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Monday November 28, 2005 - 10:14:04 GMT

Key Points
• USD showing strong again, especially against the JPY.
• EUR-USD remains above key supports and these may hold ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting and
Friday’s US payrolls.
• US existing home sales, Canadian parliamentary vote feature today  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Monday November 28, 2005 - 09:53:12 GMT

USD stronger still on reports of strong beginning to US Christmas shopping season. EUR/USD may challenge 1.1640 support.

USD/JPY knocking on big psychological level at 120.00. Busy week ahead with ECB and US numbers.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Friday: Germany nationwide CPI for November comes in at –0  More...    More...



Dollar poised for further gains off upbeat economic data; overseas outlook generally soft
CMC Markets Monday November 28, 2005 - 08:01:34 GMT

November 28th - Flash retail sales figures from the US showing a significant spike in spending over the holiday weekend look set to provide further support for the greenback as we run towards the month end. Recent speculation that the FOMC would start to ease away from such a hawkish stance over monetary policy may now be open to some scrutiny as there would seem to be a definite feel good factor amongst consumers right now, with inflationary pressures remaining a significant risk in the months ahead  More...    More...


Forex: Another week of data, and more USD strength
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Monday November 28, 2005 - 06:05:27 GMT

Market Recap
The US dollar was trading firmer against the euro and yen, and is expected to hold support as traders await the expected rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Dec 13. The US dollar continued to push higher in thin overnight trading on Friday, reversing losses at the beginning of the previous week to remain unchanged for the period  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 28th November 2005
FX-Strategy Monday November 28, 2005 - 00:45:35 GMT

Price: 119.66

Resistance: 119.70 ... 120.13 ... 120.44 ... 120.62
Support....: 119.24 ... 119.10 ... 118.95 ... 118.53

Bias: We should see a pullback to the 119.10-30 area followed by a rally to 120.44-62

Bullish: We have seen the rally extend to the 119  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (25 November 2005)
GCI Financial Friday November 25, 2005 - 16:03:25 GMT



The euro continued its move lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1740 level and was capped around the $1.1790 level. Stops were triggered below the $1.1765/ 60 level, representing the 23  More...    More...



FX-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 25-11-05 .... 1300 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday November 25, 2005 - 13:05:44 GMT

Euro @ 1.1756/59....Sideways 'tween 1.1717-1841
---------------------------------------------
R: 1.1770-89 / 1.1804 / 1.1841
S: 1.1738-19 / 1.1681
The Euro dropped to 1.1738 during the day and has bounced slightly from there. Currently ranged between 1  More...    More...



Data boost for Swiss franc
INVESTICA Ltd Friday November 25, 2005 - 11:21:29 GMT

The Swiss currency was unable to sustain gains beyond 1.31 against the dollar on Thursday and weakened back towards 1.3200 in early Europe on Friday as the dollar secured renewed buying interest before moving to 1.3150. The franc gained to 1.5470 against the Euro from lows around 1  More...    More...


Disappointing Japanese CPI buoys dollar; cable traders await UK GDP data
CMC Markets Friday November 25, 2005 - 09:07:09 GMT

November 25th - The dollar has trended higher through the Asian session despite an absence of news from the US markets which have been closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Although trading will resume today, many are likely to stay out of the market until next week and there’s little on the economic calendar other than yesterday’s delayed weekly jobless figures so further meaningful direction may prove difficult to find  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 25th November 2005
FX-Strategy Friday November 25, 2005 - 01:42:11 GMT

Price: 1.7215

Resistance: 1.7240 ... 1.7260 ... 1.7285 ... 1.7317
Support....: 1.7200 ... 1.7174 ... 1.7138 ... 1.7109

Bias: Breach of 1.7295 or 1.7138 should generate the next 80-100 point move

Bullish: The 1  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (24 November 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday November 24, 2005 - 16:20:56 GMT



The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1780 level after encountering selling pressure around the $1.1825 level. Technically, today’s intraday low is right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Thursday November 24, 2005 - 12:14:47 GMT

Thanksgiving holiday in the US may keep the market rangebound - though it didn't in 2004 or 2005...

Market seems indecisive until we see 1.1730 or 1.1900 taken out in EUR/USD.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• US Heating Oil stocks rose last week and pushed heating oil prices sharply lower in the US yesterday, despite expectations for colder weather this week  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 24-11-05....1159 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday November 24, 2005 - 12:14:22 GMT

***
Best wishes for THANKSGIVING for our American Readers.
***


Euro @ 1.1791/4...On verge of bullishness?
--------------------------------------------
R: 1.1836-43 / 1.1869 / 1.1910-17
S: 1.1788-71 / 1  More...    More...



Uncertainty hampers dollar
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday November 24, 2005 - 11:50:50 GMT

The dollar will still be unsettled slightly by the Tuesday FOMC minutes, although the US currency was able to gain some support from the fact that the Fed will continue to tighten policy in the short term. There was also a suspicion that markets had over-reacted on Tuesday, but the minutes could still prove to be an important watershed for the currency  More...    More...


Thanksgiving break sees dollar lacking support; Yen buoyant
CMC Markets Thursday November 24, 2005 - 09:04:58 GMT

November 24th - The dollar has failed to make any progress through the Asian session as thin trading conditions have left markets in a somewhat volatile mood. There’s little of note on the economic calendar really until next week now, with many announcements being rescheduled to take account of the Thanksgiving holiday break  More...    More...


On the big picture in EUR/USD
Trendways Thursday November 24, 2005 - 02:51:45 GMT

Some analysis on the EUR/$ big picture-- Keeping on mind that this pair hasn't yet signaled an upside model break and assuming the bottom round formation will remain intact thus leading to an upward correction, here are some thoughts. The big long term correction since last December major top has unfolded in five clear waves  More...    More...


Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday November 23, 2005 - 20:30:53 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: Stronger NZD ignores business confidence
The NZD opened yesterday’s local session nervously following the release of the NBNZ business confidence reading for November. Although general business sentiment fell to net -66.2% (the lowest reading since the aftermath of the ‘87 crash), it was the release of the FOMC minutes from November 1st that set market tone for the day  More...    More...



Forex: Euro Remains Bid As Market Looks Ahead to ECB Rate Hike
FXCM Wednesday November 23, 2005 - 16:46:04 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 11-23-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

***NEXT RELEASE WILL BE ON MONDAY NOV 28TH

• Euro Remains Bid As Market Looks Ahead to ECB Rate Hike
• BoE Centers Focus on Wage Growth
• Yen Rallies as BoJ Tries to Exert Independence

US Dollar

It is the day before the Thanksgiving holiday here in the US and most dealers are thinking more about their long trips home than taking new positions in the markets  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (23 November 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday November 23, 2005 - 16:01:07 GMT



The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1765 level after encountering resistance around the $1.1865 level. Technically, today’s high was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 23-11-05....1251 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday November 23, 2005 - 13:57:09 GMT

Euro @ 1.1774/7...Mindless market
-----------------------------------------
R: 1.1784 / 1.1835 / 1.1869
S: 1.1742 / 1.1699
The market seems to be jumping up and down like a headless chicken. It went into bullish territory in the morning, seeing a high near 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday November 23, 2005 - 11:34:01 GMT

Key Points
• FOMC minutes dominate - but the revelations are not as dovish as some of the headlines suggest.
• However, they will shift market attention more directly on to the economic data and the possibility
of a language change at the next meeting  More...    More...



FOMC minutes underpin Sterling
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday November 23, 2005 - 11:26:35 GMT

Sterling weakened to lows of 1.7070 against the dollar with choppy trading during Tuesday. The volatility remained high in New York and Sterling was able to take advantage of dollar weakness to push above 1.72. Sterling weakened back to 0.6860 against the Euro, but strengthened back above the 1  More...    More...


A little $ surprise
Black Swan Capital Wednesday November 23, 2005 - 11:13:39 GMT

Quotable

“’Not to put to fine a point upon it’—a favourite apology for plain-speaking with Mr. Snagby.”

Charles Dickens, Bleak House

FX Trading

Surprise moves prices!

One-way dollar bulls got a bit of a surprise yesterday, emanating from a couple rogue economists who broke ranks within the hallowed halls of the Fed  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Wednesday November 23, 2005 - 10:48:28 GMT

FOMC minutes show some Fed members getting uncomfortable in their seats with the rate hike regime. EUR/USD could explode higher soon if 1.1900 resistance is taken out.

FOMC minutes were a bomb as the process toward a stopping of the hiking regime is under way - the Dec  More...    More...



Dollar slips on FOMC meeting minutes; additional support may prove lacking ahead of Thanksgiving break.
CMC Markets Wednesday November 23, 2005 - 08:56:56 GMT

November 23rd - The release of FOMC meeting minutes yesterday showed that despite pressures from inflation and high fuel prices, there’s growing concern that the ongoing tightening of US interest rates may need to be revised. Speculation that cash yields may start to slow has resulted in a degree of selling against the dollar, pushing the currency lower across the board although the vast majority of recent gains have remained in tact  More...    More...


Forex: Anyone still long EUR from 1.2500 doesn't have much to give Thanks for
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Wednesday November 23, 2005 - 05:12:01 GMT

Market Recap
The US dollar was mixed against major currency pairs, and is expected to move in a narrow range for the rest of the week as the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday causes current market momentum to ease.
While the US unit was sold down sharply overnight on the less hawkish minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on November 1, there are few strong fresh cues to push the greenback firmly either way  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 23rd November 2005
FX-Strategy Wednesday November 23, 2005 - 01:20:51 GMT

Price: 1.7184

Resistance: 1.7206 ... 1.7243 ... 1.7261 ... 1.7295
Support....: 1.7159 ... 1.7104 ... 1.7064 ... 1.7048

Bias: The 1.7261-95 is now critical but we feel should hold on first attempt

Bullish: While the losses below 1  More...    More...



Forex: Has the EUR/USD Reached a Bottom?
FXCM Tuesday November 22, 2005 - 22:08:28 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 11-22-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Has the EUR/USD Reached a Bottom?
• Dollar Tumbles as Fed Members Warn About Going too Far With Rates
• Pound Rallies as Gas Prices Hit Record Highs

US Dollar

The dollar is rolling over and as always, it is the Fed’s fault  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday November 22, 2005 - 20:45:00 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZ business confidence falls to 17 year low
After opening at around 0.6885 the NZD struggled to make further gains in Tuesday’s domestic session, running into resistance just under 0.6900. The only NZ data out of note was net migration, which eased further to 6,000 in the year ending Oct against 6,410 in the year ending Sep  More...    More...



Fed concerns start to appear
FX Today Tuesday November 22, 2005 - 19:32:54 GMT

The Fed remained concerned over inflation at the November 1 policy meeting. There was, however, some unease over the risks of tightening too much from some members and there was also a substantial discussion over the need for wording to be changed soon. The Fed is still on a tightening path, but rate expectations are likely to be downgraded slightly and the Euro is likely to attempt a renewed push above 1  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (22 November 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday November 22, 2005 - 14:33:28 GMT



The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1685 level after encountering selling pressure around the $1.1740 level. The common currency retreated from yesterday’s highs following comments from European Central Bank President Trichet who suggested the central bank is not necessarily entering a period of extended monetary tightening even through it is nearing its first rate hike in some five years  More...    More...



Currency life cycle
Black Swan Capital Tuesday November 22, 2005 - 10:00:55 GMT

Quotable

“When I first look at a trade, I don’t ask, ‘What is the potential profit I can realize?’ but rather, ‘What is the potential loss I could suffer?’”

Victor Sperandeo

FX Trading

Yesterday, ECB President Trichet said, "It would not be a good working assumption  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday November 22, 2005 - 09:51:53 GMT

Key Points
• What exactly is Trichet trying to tell us?
• Overall, recent ECB developments have been negative for EUR-USD compared to prior expectations.
• UK CBI survey, Canadian CPI feature today.

Market Outlook
So what has Trichet been trying to tell us over the past few days? First of all, rates will be going up by 25bp on December 1  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Tuesday November 22, 2005 - 09:43:09 GMT

Trichet rhetoric erases the rally he created in the first place. EUR/USD may be set to fall again and may focus on 1.1500.

FOMC minutes up today - after recent fixed income rally in the US, could we have developed a little "surprise side" if the minutes show continued hawkishness?

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• US Leading Indicators for October out at 0  More...    More...



EUR USD looking subdued as limited economic data comes in as expected
CMC Markets Tuesday November 22, 2005 - 09:01:47 GMT

November 22nd - With another quiet day forecast on economic calendars – at least until the FOMC meeting minutes are released later in the session – there will be little surprise if currencies remain somewhat rangebound in early trade. German GDP figures for Q3 were released early in the European day, coming in in-line with expectations and leaving the common currency stuck close to 1  More...    More...


Forex: Just when we thought we had a central bank official talking straight
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Tuesday November 22, 2005 - 06:07:11 GMT

Market Recap
The US dollar was trading mixed against the major currency pairs, and is expected to range trade over the remainder of the week with little fresh economic data. The US dollar regained support after initial selling overnight, following European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet's comments the central bank is not planning a series of rate hikes in the euro zone, without a series of ECB rate hikes, the US will maintain a juicy interest rate advantage over the euro zone, serving to support the US dollar  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 22nd November 2005
FX-Strategy Tuesday November 22, 2005 - 00:32:08 GMT

Price: 1.3192

Resistance: 1.3225 ... 1.3249 ... 1.3268 ... 1.3284
Support....: 1.3172 ... 1.3153 ... 1.3131 ... 1.3105

Bias: We look for follow-through to 1.3249 at least and we suspect the 1.3268-84 area before a pullback

Bullish: Price bounced perfectly from our 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday November 22, 2005 - 00:14:04 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD drifts in uneventful day
In a day void of any major economic data the NZD range traded on Monday. The NZD tested 0.6900 resistance in the domestic session, eventually posting a 0.6895 high and trading a 31bps intraday range. Overnight, the NZD was taken higher to 0  More...    More...



Forex: December Could Bring Big Moves in the Dollar
FXCM Monday November 21, 2005 - 22:24:58 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 11-21-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• December Could Bring Big Moves in the Dollar
• Euro Slides as ECB Trichet Clarify Comments
• Signs of Housing Market Stabilization Does Little For Pound

US Dollar

The holiday season is upon us and for traders, this means that liquidity in the markets could begin to dry up  More...    More...



Forex: Model Point Tests
Trendways Monday November 21, 2005 - 14:49:49 GMT

AUD/USD has violated its model point but prices remain within the 15 pip error margin hus far. USD/CAD is threatening a model test. Key support zone for EUR/$ 1.1770-95.

    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (21 November 2005)
GCI Financial Monday November 21, 2005 - 14:49:42 GMT



The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1835 level and was supported around the $1.1760 level. Technically, today’s low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



FX-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 21-11-05 ....1259 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday November 21, 2005 - 13:07:52 GMT

Euro @ 1.1812/15....Cautiously Long
----------------------------------------
R: 1.1837 / 1.1869-79 / 1.1897
S: 1.1792-80 / 1.1766-59 / 1.1729-24
The Euro has risen above 1.1800 and is on its way to test 1.1850-69. NOTE that 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Monday November 21, 2005 - 12:01:33 GMT

Key Points
• Thanksgiving thinned out week could compound short-term ECB related support for EUR…
• …but overall downside bias remains intact.
• GBP vulnerability to continue this week.
• Canadian retail sales, Trichet feature today – Japanese data tonight  More...    More...



A mini-sentiment extreme?
Black Swan Capital Monday November 21, 2005 - 11:28:27 GMT

Quotable

“Values in the stock market depend on that little increment, that extra margin of buying or selling, demand or supply, that determines current prices.”

Marchand Sage, Street Fighting at Wall & Broad

FX Trading

As more and more players warm to the idea of a dollar bull market and the rationales we provided to our readers back in January, which included:

1) Improving dollar yield differential
2) Relative economic growth
3) A crystallized sentiment extreme against the dollar
4) The possibility the Bush Administration puts action behind “strong dollar policy” words and 5) An emerging view that a falling dollar won’t solve the current account problem

…we start to wonder if too many people aren’t now “too bullish” on the buck  More...    More...



UK economic data suggest interest rates will stay on hold
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday November 21, 2005 - 11:17:53 GMT

Economics Weekly: Economic Research and Analysis : UK economic data suggest interest rates will stay on hold

November - a month of weak economic data?
With most of the UK’s main economic data releases for November now released, it may be worth briefly summarising their implications for the economy and what they may mean for the direction of short term interest rates, remembering that the repo rate was left at 4  More...    More...



Dollar correction
INVESTICA Ltd Monday November 21, 2005 - 11:12:27 GMT

ECB Chairman Trichet gave a very clear hint that Euro interest rates were set to rise and a 0.25% increase appears certain at the December 1 council meeting. It has been apparent for weeks that hard-line elements in Germany have been pushing for a tighter policy and Trichet’s comments suggest that there is now majority support for an increase to curb inflation expectations and control money supply growth  More...    More...


Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Monday November 21, 2005 - 11:05:40 GMT

Trichet made it very clear on Friday where the ECB stands on rates - and market finally listened. EUR/USD may challenge key resistance.

JPY remains weak after Bush uses kid gloves on China. USD/JPY may try for 120.00, but with NO expectations now for China to move - they probably will, and soon  More...    More...



Euro up, Yen down as interest rate differentials provide focus for traders
CMC Markets Monday November 21, 2005 - 08:49:37 GMT

November 21st - With the US Thanksgiving holiday at the end of this week, the coming days could prove to be somewhat volatile as currency market volumes potentially stand poised to edge lower. Because of the forthcoming holiday, many economic announcements have been rescheduled and as a result, meaningful direction may also prove somewhat difficult to find  More...    More...


Forex: Trichet gives the EUR reason to rally
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Monday November 21, 2005 - 06:04:43 GMT

Market Recap
The US dollar was trading weaker early today against the euro and yen, while the currency is likely to drift even lower after hawkish comments from ECB officials on Friday and little fresh data this week.
The euro rallied to 1  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 21st November 2005
FX-Strategy Sunday November 20, 2005 - 07:29:44 GMT

Price: 1.3144

Resistance: 1.3160 ... 1.3202 ... 1.3224 ... 1.3272
Support....: 1.3133 ... 1.3109 ... 1.3084 ... 1.3067

Bias: While there is still risk of a dip to 1.3067-84 we feel this will trigger a return to the upside

Bullish: An earlier sharp move higher on Friday proved a false break and ended the day having seen a new corrective low  More...    More...



FOREX:COT Analysis
Global-View Saturday November 19, 2005 - 17:26:03 GMT

Weekly COT report analysis courtesy Cumino...

CLICK TO SAVE AND THEN OPEN
    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (18 November 2005)
GCI Financial Friday November 18, 2005 - 15:55:34 GMT



The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1665 level and was capped around the $1.1795 level. The pair spiked higher in North American dealing, triggering stops above the $1.1760 level, but quickly retraced its short-lived gains  More...    More...



Trichet boost Euro
FX Today Friday November 18, 2005 - 14:41:43 GMT

ECB Chairman Trichet has given a strong hint that Euro interest rates will be increased in December by stating that the bank was ready to adjust interest rates. The comments pushed the Euro to above 1.1750 from 1.1675 ahead of the remarks. A break above 1  More...    More...


FX-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 18-11-05....1306 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday November 18, 2005 - 13:12:35 GMT

Euro @ 1.1684/7....Ranged now. Bearish below 1.1622
---------------------------------------------------
R: 1.1711 / 1.1757-77
S: 1.1650 / 1.1637-22
The Euro remained below the 1.1766-81 Resistance mentioned in the morning and has fallen almost 100 pips from there  More...    More...



Where next for the dollar?
INVESTICA Ltd Friday November 18, 2005 - 12:43:20 GMT

Dollar confidence will remain strong in the short term with the currency supported by yield considerations. The US Federal Reserve will tighten policy again in December, reinforcing the dollar’s yield advantage. The greater confidence has also been illustrated by strong capital inflows and there is also the potential for momentum dollar buying  More...    More...


Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday November 18, 2005 - 11:44:40 GMT

Key Points
• Overall USD bias remains to upside despite tentative signs of momentum loss on EUR-USD.
• Official comments hinder EUR.
• GBP builds on the break seen on Wednesday – JPY facing up to key area against USD.
• No major data releases today  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Friday November 18, 2005 - 10:55:19 GMT

EUR/USD stays supported as US rates drop heavily again on weaker than expected Philly Fed.

EUR/USD could rally to key resistance in 1.1830/70 zone. JPY still weak with Bush headed to China this weekend.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• US Industrial Production for October was out at 0  More...    More...



Dollar gains taper off ahead of weekend break
CMC Markets Friday November 18, 2005 - 09:32:11 GMT

November 18th - After a degree of hesitation through the European session yesterday, the dollar has once again edged higher against the majority of currencies. This comes despite the fact that many traders are now beginning to consider the longer term outlook for US interest rates and how cash yields are going to start levelling off in due course, although there is a degree of speculation building as to whether the greenback can now continue to extend gains through next week’s trade  More...    More...


Forex: Use the pullback in the USD to get long. This rally's not over yet
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Friday November 18, 2005 - 05:25:11 GMT

Market Recap
The US dollar was trading firmer against the major currency pairs, with further profit-taking likely to be limited as traders await a further rate hike in US interest rates on December 13.
The US dollar was sold overnight following disappointing US data releases which in turn led to a further fall in US bond yields  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 18th November 2005
FX-Strategy Friday November 18, 2005 - 01:07:51 GMT

Price: 1.1746

Resistance: 1.1776 ... 1.1799 ... 1.1824 ... 1.1861
Support....: 1.1737 ... 1.1713 ... 1.1664 ... 1.1640

Bias: There appears to be risk to 1.1800-25 (max 1.1862) from where the downtrend should resume

Bullish: The break of 1  More...    More...



Forex: Speculative Sentiment Shifts – Possible Short Term Bottom in Euro?
FXCM Thursday November 17, 2005 - 21:43:32 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 11-17-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.fxcm.com, www.dailyfx.com

- Speculative Sentiment Shifts – Possible Short Term Bottom in Euro?
- Euro Bulls Focus on Rate Hike Odds and Shrugs Off Growth Downgrade
- Yen Strengthens on Rumors of Yuan Revaluation

US Dollar

The dollar quietly weakened throughout the US trading session  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday November 17, 2005 - 20:56:53 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: Rugby news lifts NZD
The NZD stuck within a familiar range in both domestic and overnight sessions as yield related demand balanced out a firm USD. The currency remained capped by strong resistance around 0.6870/80 as the USD held its ground after figures showed strong capital inflows continue to fund their giant trade deficit  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (17 November 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday November 17, 2005 - 14:35:41 GMT



The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1700 figure and was supported around the $1.1645 level. The common currency gained some ground after the release of weaker-than-expected U  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 17-11-05....1216 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday November 17, 2005 - 13:12:34 GMT

Euro @ 1.1670/3...Buyers at 1.1650?
-----------------------------------
R: 1.1712 / 1.1732 / 1.1768
S: 1.1646 / 1.1616 / 1.1583
The Euro is trading in a downward sloping channel on the Daily candles, with channel resistance at 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday November 17, 2005 - 11:52:50 GMT

Key Points
• USD positives continue to mount, leaving ECB rate hike threat less potent.
• 1.1500-90 is key on EUR-USD.
• GBP vulnerable to further independent weakness after yesterday’s break on cable.

Market Outlook
The data news flow continues to fall in the USD’s favour  More...    More...



Dollar vulnerable to correction
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday November 17, 2005 - 11:34:38 GMT

The Euro weakened to lows just below 1.1650 after the US data on Wednesday, but crawled back to 1.1690 as Euro selling eased. The US currency was able to secure fresh buying interest on Thursday with a move to 1.1645 before a retreat to 1.1690.

The US data again had a firm bias during Wednesday  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Thursday November 17, 2005 - 10:37:07 GMT

JPY stronger overnight on report showing growing foreign appetite for Japanese assets. Key US Housing reports up today.

GBP decline may continue - UK Retail Sales up today.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Australia Average Weekly Wages rose 1  More...    More...



Dollar pauses for breath in Yen rally, US Industrial Production data awaited.
CMC Markets Thursday November 17, 2005 - 08:34:53 GMT

November 17th - Once again the dollar has paused for breath against the Yen as traders consolidated positions after struggling to find any meaningful direction through the Asian session. There’s been little on the economic calendar so far, although the fact that oil inventories came in largely in line with expectations yesterday – and prices are holding some way below the $60 mark - is without doubt offering a degree of support to the Yen  More...    More...


Forex: Just let the trend be your friend
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Thursday November 17, 2005 - 06:20:07 GMT

Market Recap
The US dollar was trading stronger against the euro and yen following solid US economic data overnight, but will need key technical levels to break higher in coming weeks. Solid US Treasury data for September showing record net inflows into US assets initiated US dollar strength overnight, while consumer price index data for October confirmed further rate rises needed in the US  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday November 17, 2005 - 01:30:19 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: The battle of support vs resistance
The NZD was steadier yesterday after being whipped around during the previous day’s trading. Despite the lack of activity the NZD is still finding good support on high yield with further Uridashi and Eurokiwi issuance in the pipeline as the RBNZ is expected to raise rates again in Dec  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 17th November 2005
FX-Strategy Thursday November 17, 2005 - 01:16:19 GMT

Price: 1.1677

Resistance: 1.1700 ... 1.1723 ... 1.1745 ... 1.1778
Support....: 1.1668 ... 1.1640 ... 1.1603 ... 1.1570

Bias: Slightly mixed though view 1.1722-45 as key resistance and 1.1603-40 as support

Bullish: We never saw any higher than the 1  More...    More...



Forex: Explosive US Numbers Sends Dollar Soaring
FXCM Wednesday November 16, 2005 - 22:16:35 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 11-16-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Explosive US Numbers Sends Dollar Soaring
• British Pound Plunges as BoE Cuts Inflation Forecasts
• End to ZIRP in Japan Still Up in the Air

US Dollar

It has been quite a day for the dollar today as it soared against the majors  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (16 November 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday November 16, 2005 - 15:14:07 GMT



The euro continued its descent vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1660 level after running out of steam around the $1.1735 level. The common currency plumbed to intraday lows after the release of better-than-expected U  More...    More...



EUR hinging on CPI?
Black Swan Capital Wednesday November 16, 2005 - 11:22:00 GMT

Quotable

“An entire generation of brokers, investors, and analysts who toil in the cyberspace world of Wall Street have never personally suffered through a prolonged bear market.”

F.J. Chu


FX Trading

We get a look at CPI today in the US  More...    More...



Sterling rates on hold
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday November 16, 2005 - 11:04:57 GMT

Sterling weakened to lows just above 1.73 against the dollar on Tuesday following the UK inflation data. It secured a generally stronger tone in New York, but trading remained volatile and the UK currency weakened significantly against the Euro to 0.6750 and weakened to below 1  More...    More...


Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Wednesday November 16, 2005 - 10:12:48 GMT

Easing yields give the USD some resistance - but the JPY can't seem to find any support at all.

US CPI up today - core number will be closely watched as energy prices continue to fall.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• UK Leading Indicator Index for September out at 0  More...    More...



TIC data, oil inventories in focus as traders look for dollar’s next move
CMC Markets Wednesday November 16, 2005 - 09:03:39 GMT

November 16th - Although traders remain generally committed to the greenback, there’s a degree of caution creeping in ahead of the TIC data that is scheduled for release later in the session. The US trade deficit continues to grow apace and although softer oil prices may provide some assistance here, the appreciating dollar and strong demand from consumers for imported goods continues to leave the Fed with something of a challenge  More...    More...


Forex: My US data today = More upside for the USD
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Wednesday November 16, 2005 - 05:57:02 GMT

Market Recap
The US dollar was trading weaker against the euro and yen on profit-taking after fresh highs, while the market awaits further indicators to boost the currency over coming weeks. The US dollar was supported overnight on solid economic data in the US, with the euro trading to a new recent low of 1  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 16th November 2005
FX-Strategy Wednesday November 16, 2005 - 00:57:47 GMT

Price: 118.81

Resistance: 119.08 ... 119.41 ... 119.57 ... 119.91
Support....: 118.71 ... 118.52 ... 118.25 ... 117.85

Bias: We feel a dip to 118.52-71 (max 118.25) is possible before the uptrend resumes

Bullish: Yesterday's initial rally was a little slower than expected and did breach the 119  More...    More...



Forex: Little Reaction to Today’s Reports – Dollar Traders Wait for CPI and TIC
FXCM Tuesday November 15, 2005 - 22:04:24 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 11-15-04

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Little Reaction to Today’s Reports – Dollar Traders Wait for CPI and TIC
• Euro Rallies on Stronger Growth Reports
• Pound Weakens on Softer Inflation Reports

US Dollar
Today we sat in front row seats for the opening act to tomorrow’s US economic releases  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday November 15, 2005 - 20:27:58 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD bought despite slowing retail sales
The NZD was steadily sold yesterday morning to the low at 0.6780. Q3 and Sep retail sales was released and pointed to slower growth, despite solid labour market conditions and a resilient housing market continuing to support household spending  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (15 November 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday November 15, 2005 - 15:43:00 GMT



The euro retraced most of its intraday losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1635 level and was capped around the $1.1710 level. Today’s intraday low represents the 38.2% retracement of the move from $0  More...    More...



Waiting for Bernanke
FX Today Tuesday November 15, 2005 - 14:28:57 GMT

The US data was mixed with a slightly firm bias. Headline retail ales fell less than expected by 0.1% while the New York manufacturing index was strong. The headline producer price index was stronger than expected at 0.7%, but underlying prices fell 0.3%. Interest rate expectations are likely to be little changed to marginally weaker and markets will now be on alert for Bernanke comments from 15  More...    More...


Quick Trade in USD/JPY
Aspen Trading Group Tuesday November 15, 2005 - 13:21:29 GMT

It appears that the 119.25-50 level will prevent any further price appreciation for now in USD/JPY. Shorter-term traders may find an opportunity to short this pair at current levels expecting a quick move to the downside towards 118.90    More...


FX-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 15-11-05....1204 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday November 15, 2005 - 12:09:44 GMT

Euro @ 1.1654/57....Target 1.1610
----------------------------------
R: 1.1680 / 1.1713
S: 1.1650 / 1.1610 / 1.1596-89-76 / 1.1560-50
Euro falling, to target 1.1610 initially and then 1.1560-50. Only a sharp upward reversal from here, past 1  More...    More...



Step right up...
Black Swan Capital Tuesday November 15, 2005 - 11:26:31 GMT

Quotable

“What man wants is independent choice, whatever that independence may cost and wherever it may lead.”

Fedor Dostoevsky


FX Trading

Two horses from the same stable?

Comstock Partners 10 Nov 05:

“Wall Street is assuming that core prices will remain under control and that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle, seemingly without realizing that these potential outcomes are contradictory  More...    More...



Dollar driven by yields
INVESTICA Ltd Tuesday November 15, 2005 - 11:07:27 GMT

The Euro was unable to push above the 1.1780 level on Monday and retreated back to a low of 1.1660 before a recovery back to 1.1690 in late New York. The dollar was little changed in early Europe on Tuesday before renewed gains to 1.1670.

The US dollar will aim to secure further benefit from yield considerations in the short term  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Tuesday November 15, 2005 - 10:15:26 GMT

USD strength keeping impressive head of steam. Will it keep chugging higher through US PPI and Retail Sales today?

Germany and EuroZone ZEW Surveys up for the European session

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• New Zealand Retail Sales for September out at -0  More...    More...



Yen races lower against dollar as economic data revised downwards
CMC Markets Tuesday November 15, 2005 - 08:41:31 GMT

November 15th - The Japanese Yen continues to race lower and once again 120 on USD-JPY is looking to be well and truly within reach. In addition to the general dollar popularity that’s still being seen off the back of the strong US interest rate, there’s still no prospect of an upturn in the Japanese economic outlook despite comments last week at the BoJ which suggested the country’s monetary policy may find scope to be tightened some time soon  More...    More...


Forex: Stop worrying about the US Trade deficit, and buy the USD
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Tuesday November 15, 2005 - 06:19:16 GMT

Market Recap
The US dollar was trading stronger against the major currency pairs, but range trading is likely until early December when the US dollar may jump again on yield support. The US dollar gained support overnight following comments by Austrian Finance Minister Karl-Heinz Grasser that he did not see inflation risks within the EU, making it unnecessary for the European Central Bank to hike higher interest rates  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 15th November 2005
FX-Strategy Tuesday November 15, 2005 - 01:07:42 GMT

Price: 118.73

Resistance: 118.83 ... 119.18 ... 119.57 ... 119.91
Support....: 118.60 ... 118.30 ... 117.89 ... 117.62

Bias: We need a break above 119.18-30 to keep the upside intact but pullbacks should remain above 118  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Rally Threatened as US Data Expected to Show Weaken
FXCM Monday November 14, 2005 - 22:34:11 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 11-14-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Rally Threatened as US Data Expected to Show Weaken
• UK Data Relieves Some of the BoE’s Concern for Soaring Inflation
• Yen Ready to Round the 119 Corner

US Dollar
Last Friday’s monstrous trade deficit sent two strong messages to the currency market  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday November 14, 2005 - 19:52:00 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD quietly lower
After a quiet local session the NZD declined overnight, following major currencies lower on the back of weak data out of the U.K. In trading an expansive 15 point range, NZD failed to establish any direction during New Zealand time  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (14 November 2005)
GCI Financial Monday November 14, 2005 - 15:57:49 GMT



The euro reversed course and moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1690 level and was capped around the $1.1770 level. The common currency ran out of steam before attacking the $1  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 14-11-05 .... 1213
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday November 14, 2005 - 12:24:38 GMT

Euro @ 1.1728/31....Range 1.1719-77. Uncertain
--------------------------------------------------
R: 1.1770-75-81 / 1.1819 / 1.1850
S: 1.1719 / 1.1691-77 / 1.1645
The Euro has remained below 1.1770 again today. As such, the overall bearish picture remains intact  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Monday November 14, 2005 - 12:09:20 GMT

Key Points
• USD-JPY above 118.41 level in Europe.
• EUR-USD steadies overnight, but risk is still to the downside.
• Key range parameters this week come in at 1.1590 and 1.1900 – 1.1670 and 1.1800 within that.
• UK PPI softens – UK RICS house prices and New Zealand retail sales out this evening  More...    More...



Forex: How long can the US dollar ignore the trade deficit?
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday November 14, 2005 - 11:28:01 GMT

Economics Weekly: How long can the US dollar ignore the trade deficit?

Record US trade deficit, yet a stronger dollar!
The parlous state of the US trade deficit should not pass without comment in a month that it reached yet another record level  More...    More...



Forex Trading Strategies
Saxo Bank Monday November 14, 2005 - 11:07:53 GMT

EUR seeing relief rally as German coalition crystallizes. Relief may extend a bit higher for EUR/USD.
    More...



Currency markets poised for slow start to the week, solid direction likely tomorrow.
CMC Markets Monday November 14, 2005 - 09:38:21 GMT

November 14th - The economic calendar is set to start he week in a somewhat quiet mood and this may make meaningful direction difficult to come by in the currency markets, although any such sentiments are likely to be short lived. UK inflation, US PPI and the German ZEW survey are all due for release tomorrow and each holds the potential to have a direct influence on respective monetary policy  More...    More...


Forex: Much Ado About Nothing Today
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Monday November 14, 2005 - 07:10:25 GMT

Market Recap
The US dollar was slightly lower against the yen and euro in early afternoon trade here, but hovering just below 118 yen, with traders sidelined ahead of the release this week of key US economic indicators.
Trading will have little direction until the release on Tuesday of the US October producer price index and retail sales data, and on Wednesday of US consumer price index (CPI) data for October  More...    More...



Forex: General Outlook for the Week beginning 14th November 2005
FX-Strategy Sunday November 13, 2005 - 06:57:51 GMT

We now move into a week where we see a strong risk of the Dollar forming a strategic high. It may just stretch into next week, but with this reversal now imminent we should be on our guard in case the relevant wave structures fail to meet the ideal targets we have set  More...    More...


FX Briefing 11 November 2005
BHF-Bank Friday November 11, 2005 - 22:46:35 GMT

Highlights
• Uncertainty about first ECB rate rise on 1 December
• Euro weakened by riots in France and German coalition talks
• US trade deficit reaches new record high in September

Euro tumbles to two-year low despite record US trade deficit
Hardly any indicators were released at the beginning of this week and the situation on the forex markets remained much the same  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (11 November 2005)
GCI Financial Friday November 11, 2005 - 15:17:22 GMT



The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1710 level and was supported around the $1.1610 level. Today’s range and volumes were thin on account of Armistice Day in Europe and Veteran’s Day in the U  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 11-11-05 ... 1240 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday November 11, 2005 - 12:52:30 GMT

Euro @ 1.1697/1700....Target 1.1551
--------------------------------
R: 1.1719-55 / 1.1780-99 / 1.1821
S: 1.1684-71 / 1.1657 / 1.1586-83
Multi-layered Resistance between 1.1719-55. Hopefully the Euro will remain and Close below this today  More...    More...



Dollar reasons...
Black Swan Capital Friday November 11, 2005 - 11:52:30 GMT

Bullet points today…

Pro-dollar
Strong international demand for US paper as evidenced in yesterday’s 10-yr auction
Continued momentum in US business conditions
Companies poised to repatriate more earnings back to the US
No sign the Fed will ease its campaign as inflation expectations rise and liquidity plentiful

In a nutshell: Tightening monetary, loose fiscal and growth—still a strong combo for the buck

Pro-something else
ECB threatening to raise rates
Germany political cloud, but business conditions improving
Noise from China it may act on the yuan again
Swiss central bank sounding aggressive
Gold acting well
New Zealand economy still growing; rates attractive
Ditto Australia/Canada

In a nutshell: Maybe the comdols; but otherwise the reasons for buying something else rests primarily on a belief in technical levels and oscillators showing relative overbought/oversold—and they can fool us as often as they help us  More...    More...



Dollar still in charge
INVESTICA Ltd Friday November 11, 2005 - 11:07:20 GMT

The Euro was unable to take advantage of the US trade deficit, failing to push above the 1.18 level, and the Euro weakened sharply in New York trading. A break below support at 1.1710 pushed the Euro down to lows of 1.1665 before a rally back to around 1.17 in early Europe on Friday  More...    More...


Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday November 11, 2005 - 11:01:34 GMT

Key Points
• USD risk still to the upside against European currencies.
• USD-JPY looking more stable.
• Swedish CPI the only data feature today.

Market Outlook
There have been a number of opportunities for EUR-USD to mount a serious recovery this week –Wednesday’s hawkish comments from ECB officials, yesterday’s poor US trade data – but none has been taken  More...    More...



Dollar remains in favour although Yen finds support off encouraging BoJ comments
CMC Markets Friday November 11, 2005 - 09:34:00 GMT

November 11th - Traders are remaining squarely committed to the dollar as the week draws to a close, once again attracted by the impressive yields on cash and the fact that yesterday’s Michigan consumer sentiment reading came in well above expectations. This is pointing towards further rate hikes in the near term from the FOMC as they try to keep a lid on inflationary pressures, with many dismissing the widening trade deficit as a by-product of the recent spike in oil prices and since crude is now tending towards the mid-$50’s a barrel this can at least in part be dismissed  More...    More...


Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday November 10, 2005 - 20:43:57 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: Positive data pushes NZD higher
The NZD continued to gain yesterday after positive local data brought fresh buying interest. After opening around 0.6830 the NZD traded in a tight range until mid morning when the Q3 employment data was released  More...    More...



FX Market Commentary and Analysis (10 November 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday November 10, 2005 - 14:09:59 GMT



The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1790 level and was supported around the $1.1750 level. Many dealers were loath to put on new positions ahead of today’s September U  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon Bank FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday November 10, 2005 - 13:01:52 GMT

Key Points
• Market waiting for US trade data, which should provide a good test of underlying USD sentiment.
• ECB officials more dovish today.
• Mixed data fortunes for NZD and AUD.
• EUR-NOK close to key supports.
• Canadian trade and Michigan sentiment also feature today  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 10-11-05 ... 1230 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday November 10, 2005 - 12:37:50 GMT

Euro @ 1.1761/64....Rally imminent?
------------------------------------
R: 1.1787-96 / 1.1834 / 1.1867-71
S: 1.1740 / 1.1720 / 1.1690-88
Euro is testing the 1.1775-85 Resistance region mentioned in the morning. If broken (chances exist), a rally into the 1  More...    More...



A decent risk/reward in yen...
Black Swan Capital Thursday November 10, 2005 - 11:33:22 GMT

Quotable

“David Ricardo summed up this reciprocal relation more than 160 years ago:
“’Though it [paper money] has no intrinsic value, yet by limiting its quantity, its value in exchange is as great as an equal denomination of coin, or of bullion in that coin…’
“Experience, however, shows that neither a state nor a bank ever has had the unrestricted power of issuing paper money without abusing the power  More...    More...



Cable rallies as MPC consensus shifts to “no change”
CMC Markets Thursday November 10, 2005 - 09:27:09 GMT

November 10th - The Bank of England will today announce its latest interest rate verdict and although there had been some speculation in the market that there may be space for a quarter point cut, futures prices certainly don’t support this and the vast majority of analysts are now backing ‘no change’ ahead of the year end  More...    More...


Forex: Grab a snorkel everybody, 1.1500 here we come
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Thursday November 10, 2005 - 05:57:44 GMT

Market Recap
The US dollar was trading mixed against the euro and yen, maintaining current trading ranges on cautious sentiment ahead of tonight's US trade data.

US interest rates continue to dominate currency markets, and will do so until traders find reasons why the Federal Reserve should pause in its cycle of rate hikes  More...    More...



On the medium term USD picture
Trendways Thursday November 10, 2005 - 01:56:14 GMT

Looking at the market picture in general, with the model favoring the USD against all other currencies and given their failure to stage a stronger correction, who can argue that the pressure against the currencies is not here to stay longer. Having said this, I am not an advocate of aggressive USD buying for certain technical reasons  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 10th November 2005
FX-Strategy Thursday November 10, 2005 - 00:53:02 GMT

Price: 1.7430

Resistance: 1.7469 ... 1.7481 ... 1.7514 ... 1.7540
Support....: 1.7413 ... 1.7386 ... 1.7361 ... 1.7325

Bias: Slightly mixed but while 1.7481-1.7514 caps we remain cautiously bearish for 1.7270 at least

Bullish: Yesterday produced quite erractic sideways trading that does raise a small query over the downside  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday November 10, 2005 - 00:22:47 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD grinds higher
Yesterday was a day of consolidation for NZD, as it continued to edge upwards after falling to new lows in recent days. After opening around 0.6820 it traded higher in the local morning session to 0.6838, but sold off in the afternoon as USD buying pushed most major currencies lower  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (9 November 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday November 9, 2005 - 15:20:25 GMT



The euro extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1725 level after running out of steam around the $1.1790 level. The common currency has not yet tested yesterday’s two-year low dating to November 2003 but the pair stopped shy of testing short-term resistance around the $1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday November 9, 2005 - 15:03:17 GMT

Key Points
• USD stays in narrow ranges overnight.
• EUR-USD downside still favoured overall – USD-JPY looks more subdued.
• AUD receives modest boost from data.

Market Outlook
A fairly quiet night for the majors, with EUR-USD trading close to the levels seen late yesterday and USD-JPY for the most part staying below 117  More...    More...



Trade moves into fcous
FX Today Wednesday November 9, 2005 - 14:48:07 GMT

The Euro pushed to above 1.1780 in New York, but has retreated rapidly back to 1.1730 illustrating that underlying Euro sentiment is still negative. There is, however, still likely to be slightly greater caution ahead of the US trade data and this should cushion the Euro from aggressive selling pressure  More...    More...


A couple of Trade Ideas
Aspen Trading Group Wednesday November 9, 2005 - 13:35:33 GMT

EUR/AUD is an appealing short as the 50-day ema has just been violated (1.6020). Both the 60 and 240-min charts are indicating a new leg lower is starting. This trade will likely take some time to play out as it moves somewhat slowly. We see a potential price target of 1  More...    More...


FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 09-11-05 ... 1235 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday November 9, 2005 - 12:49:01 GMT


Euro @ 1.1751/4....Holding Short
--------------------------------
R: 1.1781-93 / 1.1816
S: 1.1733-23-10 / 1.1683
The Euro has remained below 1.1795 so far today and has chances now of dipping further towards 1.1733-10  More...    More...



Euro - Crude: An interesting pattern
Black Swan Capital Wednesday November 9, 2005 - 11:43:28 GMT

Quotable

“The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule.”

Warren Buffet
FX Trading

Do I hear 55…do I hear 52…do I hear…65…70…Is it supply, demand, or sentiment? It’s probably a bit of all three  More...    More...



Dollar consolidation
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday November 9, 2005 - 11:11:44 GMT

The dollar was unable to push through resistance close to 1.1710 against the Euro on Tuesday and weakened back to 1.1780 in New York. The dollar was hampered by profit taking on long positions while there was also a slight narrowing of the dollar's favourable interest rate spreads  More...    More...


Dollar rally pauses ahead of oil inventories & trade balance data
CMC Markets Wednesday November 9, 2005 - 09:57:33 GMT

November 9th - Although there’s nothing to suggest that the dollar’s latest bull rally has come to an end, there’s been a definite mood amongst traders to consolidate the recent gains. Some speculation is suggesting that the ongoing unrest in France is weighing on the Euro, but both the Pound and Yen have managed to post some incremental gains against the greenback through the overnight session in Asia  More...    More...


Forex: Be careful not to be sucked in by any bounce in the Euro
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Wednesday November 9, 2005 - 06:12:01 GMT

Market Recap
The dollar held near two-year highs against the euro and the yen on Wednesday, with analysts expecting the U.S. currency's rally through key technical levels to spur more gains in coming days.

The dollar has gained a new head of steam in the past few sessions by breaking through its previous high for 2005 against the euro and then last year's peak, prompting a variety of accounts to bail out of short dollar positions  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 9th November 2005
FX-Strategy Wednesday November 9, 2005 - 01:01:00 GMT

Price: 1.3118

Resistance: 1.3140 ... 1.3171 ... 1.3226 ... 1.3269
Support....: 1.3084 ... 1.3067 ... 1.3033 ... 1.3000

Bias: We look for 1.3067-84 to support to generate a recovery to 1.3171 and later to the 1.3269-75 target

Bullish: We had not anticipated the peak at 1  More...    More...



Forex: Euro Slides on Fears that French Riots are Spreading
FXCM Tuesday November 8, 2005 - 22:38:55 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 11-08-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Euro Slides on Fears that French Riots are Spreading
• Profit Taking Hits Dollar
• Weak Retails Sales Data Plagues Pound

US Dollar

If you thought yesterday was quiet, today you could hear a pin drop  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday November 8, 2005 - 20:26:02 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD finally bounces
What started as a relatively quiet morning yesterday, turned into a busy day as the NZD fell through key support at 0.6780. The currency opened up around 0.6790 and looked to be trading in a tight range above support at 0  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (8 November 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday November 8, 2005 - 13:42:18 GMT



The euro extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1705 level after encountering selling pressure just above the $1.1800 figure. Some themes reemerged overnight to lead the euro lower  More...    More...



FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 08-11-05.... 1150 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday November 8, 2005 - 11:59:16 GMT

Euro @ 1.1722/5....Holding Shorts
---------------------------------
R: 1.1745-65 / 1.1774-85 / 1.1815
S: 1.1710 / 1.1688
The Euro has remained above 1.1710 and below 1.1750 so far since the morning. As long as it remains below 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday November 8, 2005 - 11:35:16 GMT

Key Points
• More general USD strength likely short-term.
• EUR-USD moves below 2004 low – next support at 1.1589. Short-term outlook very negative.
• ECB’s Mersch offers hawkish tone on rates.
• Few events of significance on today’s schedule  More...    More...



A dollar capitulation...
Black Swan Capital Tuesday November 8, 2005 - 11:31:52 GMT

Quotable

“I’m short the dollar,” Bill Gates, the world’s richest man said this weekend from his lofty perch as the guiding light of Davos, "The old dollar, it's going to go down."

So why are you so sure about that Bill? Well, it’s the deficits, of course  More...    More...



Yen finds degree of stability as other major USD crosses continue retreat
CMC Markets Tuesday November 8, 2005 - 08:34:18 GMT

November 8th - Yen has managed to find a degree of stability in overnight trade against the dollar with support emerging on the back of factors including softer oil prices. Elsewhere the greenback is continuing to test new recent highs but numbers due later in the session such as Japanese bank lending could add further support to the JPY in the short term  More...    More...


Forex: Like Santa Claus, the Euro's end of year rally will be make believe in 2005
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Tuesday November 8, 2005 - 06:26:06 GMT

Market Recap
The US dollar was firmer earlier today against the euro and yen, but the bullish rally is likely to pause in the short term, lacking fresh factors to propel the currency higher. With no key US economic releases overnight, traders focused on the Federal Reserve's revised industrial production estimates and key upward revisions to capacity use data  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 8th November 2005
FX-Strategy Tuesday November 8, 2005 - 00:34:45 GMT

Price: 1.3072

Resistance: 1.3075 ... 1.3105 ... 1.3129 ... 1.3162
Support....: 1.3033 ... 1.3021 ... 1.2992 ... 1.2964

Bias: We favor the pullback having completed and for gains above 1.3105-30 for a move to 1.3226 and possibly 1  More...    More...



Forex: Another Day, Another High in the Dollar
FXCM Monday November 7, 2005 - 21:18:32 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 11-07-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Another Day, Another High in the Dollar
• Riots in France Continues to Drag Euro Lower
• Yen Rebounds on Lower Oil Prices

US Dollar

The dollar hit a new 17 month high against the Euro today  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday November 7, 2005 - 19:57:30 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD continues decline
The NZD hovered close to its six week lows during the local session, and in a typically quiet Monday there were few significant buyers or sellers. The NZD traded a tight 0.6818 - 0.6843 range and closed near the upper end of this range  More...    More...



Dollar probes resistance
FX Today Monday November 7, 2005 - 16:14:27 GMT

The Euro is still being met with selling pressure on rallies with the latest bout of selling pressure coming in at around 1.1820 against the dollar. The markets will attempt to push the dollar stronger. There is likely to be good two-way interest below the 1  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (7 November 2005)
GCI Financial Monday November 7, 2005 - 14:32:00 GMT



The euro extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1780 level after encountering offers around the $1.1830 level. The common currency crashed through a key technical level of $1  More...    More...



Euro licks wounds
INVESTICA Ltd Monday November 7, 2005 - 11:50:28 GMT

The Euro strengthened after the US employment report on Friday as there was a weaker than expected headline increase in payrolls. The Euro was, however, unable to push back above 1.20 and this failure encouraged fresh Euro selling. This quickly escalated into aggressive stop-loss selling as important resistance levels were broken The Euro was still on the defensive on Monday, although it recovered from a brief dip below the 1  More...    More...


FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 07-11-05 ... 1141 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday November 7, 2005 - 11:48:41 GMT

Euro @ 1.1818/21....Bearish
-----------------------------------------
R: 1.1832 / 1.1865 / 1.1884-98
S: 1.1800 / 1.1781 /
The Euro dipped to 1.1781, but has not seen follow-through selling. Instead, it has bounced to 1.1832 thereafter  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Monday November 7, 2005 - 11:25:04 GMT

Key Points
• Upside USD risk grows further, although outside chance of an initial correction today.
• 2004 low at 1.1759 is next support on EUR-USD and this needs to break to confirm likelihood of more generalised USD strength.
• Trichet due to speak as G10 spokesman  More...    More...



Dollar rallying off interest rate differentials
CMC Markets Monday November 7, 2005 - 08:15:51 GMT

November 7th - Some significant dollar inflows during Friday’s session sent the greenback higher across the board in late European trade, with interest rate differentials proving to be the key driver behind the rally. US consumer credit figures due for release later today will doubtless prove critical in defining whether or not this move will be sustainable – arguably traders are already looking for a reason to start booking profits - but if US borrowing continues to expand apace then once again there’s little to stop the FOMC from continuing its hawkish stance towards monetary policy in the short to medium term  More...    More...


Forex: FX Briefing 4 November 2005
BHF-Bank Sunday November 6, 2005 - 12:13:18 GMT

Highlights
• Shift in US monetary policy
• US economy reaches limits of inflation-free growth
• ECB to bring interest rate to a neutral level

US monetary policy supports the dollar
The dollar started the week buoyantly  More...    More...



Looking for long term probable targets
Trendways Sunday November 6, 2005 - 09:45:20 GMT

If we are in for a continuation of the long term correction we better look for some probable market targets. Long term patterns are not clearly developed. Looking at the pair that most traders watch, EUR/$, we can only say with certainty that the long term uptrend was broken last April and the broken line was tested and held as resistance in May  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 7th November 2005
FX-Strategy Saturday November 5, 2005 - 23:30:11 GMT

Price: 1.3057

Resistance: 1.3083 ... 1.3122 ... 1.3162 ... 1.3192
Support....: 1.3033 ... 1.3001 ... 1.2974 ... 1.2942

Bias: We look for 1.3001 (max 1.2940-50) to support and for gains above 1.3083

Bullish: The pullback to the 1  More...    More...



Forex: Weekly COT Report
global-view.com Saturday November 5, 2005 - 12:37:24 GMT

Weekly COT analysis courtesy Cumino...


SAVE AND UNZIP    More...



Forex: Dollar Hits 1.5 Year High Against Euro as Traders Focus Shrug Off Payrolls
FXCM Friday November 4, 2005 - 22:42:05 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 11-04-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist at www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Hits 1.5 Year High Against Euro as Traders Focus Shrug Off Payrolls
• Improvements Persistently Seen in Eurozone Economic Data
• USD/JPY Rally Continues, Breaking 2 Year Highs

US Dollar

Non-farm payrolls have not failed us yet – it delivered a nice dose of volatility to the market once again today  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (4 November 2005)
GCI Financial Friday November 4, 2005 - 15:05:16 GMT



The euro erased most of its intraday losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1995 level and was supported around the $1.1920 level. The dollar gave up intraday gains after the release of weaker-than-expected U  More...    More...



Payroll disappointment
FX Today Friday November 4, 2005 - 13:55:48 GMT

US non-farm payroll growth was weaker than expected at 56,000 while there was a downward revision to the previous figures. The unemployment arte fell to 5.0%, however, and hourly warnings growth was higher than expected at 0.5% which will maintain inflation fears  More...    More...


It's still all about yield
Black Swan Capital Friday November 4, 2005 - 11:53:17 GMT

Quotable

“It ain’t over till it’s over.”

Yogi Berra


FX Trading

Jobs report Friday. It usually means fireworks. Be careful out there. Retail sales in the US surprised on the high side yesterday  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday November 4, 2005 - 11:23:52 GMT

Key Points
• USD remains in the ascendancy, although key barriers remain in place against European
currencies.
• ECB meeting fails to spark Dec rate hike expectations but Trichet confirmed a clear tightening bias.
• German manufacturing orders, Canadian and US employment reports feature today

Market Outlook
The USD continues to exhibit strength right across the board with the exception of a few LatAm currencies, notably the BRL  More...    More...



Yen remains exposed on downside as Dollar tests new 2 year highs.
CMC Markets Friday November 4, 2005 - 09:10:20 GMT

November 4th - Despite the presence of some positive economic data from Japan in recent trade – household spending showing its first increase in six months – the Yen continues to race lower against the dollar. Numbers released from the US yesterday are certainly suggesting that any slowdown in the economy should prove short-lived and this is being reinforced by another rally in oil prices as the market accounts for higher demand as we move on into the winter  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 4th November 2005
FX-Strategy Friday November 4, 2005 - 01:07:10 GMT

Price: 1.1944

Resistance: 1.1951 ... 1.1980 ... 1.2017 ... 1.2045
Support....: 1.1910 ... 1.1874 ... 1.1830 ... 1.1801

Bias: Look for an initial decline to 1.1905-10 and while any pullback remains below 1.1970-90 for a further drop to 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Friday November 4, 2005 - 00:21:46 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: Interest rate focus vs slowing economy
The NZD found itself in a tight range during a quiet domestic session bereft of any market moving data or events. Asian holidays also added to the quiet days trading. The NZD weakened across the board overnight, hitting a four-week low of 0  More...    More...



Forex: Wide Range of Payroll Estimates Could Cause Significant Volatility in Dollar
FXCM Thursday November 3, 2005 - 22:07:38 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 11-03-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

• Wide Range of Payroll Estimates Could Cause Significant Volatility in Dollar
• Euro Slides as ECB Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged Once Again
• Pounds Weakens Despite Encouraging Service Sector Data

US Dollar

The dollar has strengthened once in anticipation of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report  More...    More...



GVI Monthly Forex Survey Analysis Courtesy Cumino
Global-View Thursday November 3, 2005 - 14:37:19 GMT

Analysis courtesy Cumino:

GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).

EURUSD 3 months: 1st day close 1  More...    More...



GVI Monthly Survey of Forex Professionals
Global-View Thursday November 3, 2005 - 14:27:23 GMT

In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar turned more bearish against the euro. The three month ahead forecast for EURUSD was a mean 1.2143 from 1.1946 a month earlier  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (3 November 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday November 3, 2005 - 14:24:00 GMT



The euro tumbled lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids just below the $1.2000 figure after running out of steam around the $1.2080 level. As expected, European Central Bank’s Governing Council did not change interest rates today and dealers are awaiting comments from ECB President Trichet  More...    More...



FX-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 03-11-05 ... 1205 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday November 3, 2005 - 12:13:39 GMT


Euro @ 1.2064/7....Ranged
-------------------------
R: 1.2066-86 / 1.2110 / 1.2150-65
S: 1.2049-44 / 1.2027 / 1.1994 / 1.1973-65
No change since the morning, except that the Euro has softened by 10-20 pips. An upmove past 1  More...    More...



Kiwi challenge?
Black Swan Capital Thursday November 3, 2005 - 11:56:22 GMT

Quotable

“Speculation in the truest sense calls for anticipation.”

Richard D. Wyckoff

FX Trading

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Allan Bollard said yesterday:

"We now see the exchange rate as exceptionally high, and in some respects this is unjustifiable  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday November 3, 2005 - 11:47:35 GMT

Key Points
• Market News story on ECB aids EUR a little, but today’s ECB meeting may not add fresh impetus to the rate hike story.
• Biggest barrier to EUR-USD downside is potential CB interest.
• US data today and Greenspan testimony should be USD positive  More...    More...



ECB considers options
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday November 3, 2005 - 11:24:54 GMT

The dollar pushed stronger than 1.20 ahead of the New York opening on Wednesday, but was unable to sustain the move and weakened to 1.2075 later in New York as the Euro secured significant buying support. The dollar was trading little changed in early Europe on Thursday, although with a slightly firmer bias  More...    More...


Yen remains exposed despite softer oil price; US economic outlook still positive
CMC Markets Thursday November 3, 2005 - 09:55:32 GMT

November 3rd - Despite yesterday’s oil inventory data showing building reserves and crude prices holding below the $60 mark, the Yen continues to lose ground against the dollar. Japanese markets have been closed for the session today and there’s now no hard economic news due from Tokyo until next week but in the face of rising US interest rates, the JPY is set to remain vulnerable and a move towards 120 still appears to have support in the market as a whole  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 3rd November 2005
FX-Strategy Thursday November 3, 2005 - 00:43:21 GMT

Price: 1.2062

Resistance: 1.2094 ... 1.2124 ... 1.2144 ... 1.2172
Support....: 1.2045 ... 1.2020 ... 1.2000 ... 1.1967

Bias: Having reached target we look for resumption of the downtrend to 1.1967 and lower

Bullish: Upside target met and we feel that any bullish scenario should be put on hold  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday November 3, 2005 - 00:29:33 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: Dwellings fall but Fed rates rise
The NZD continued its trek lower towards a two-week low against the USD after September dwelling consents fell marginally, and the Federal Reserve raised rates and signaled it was still on a tightening bias yesterday  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Awaits for Direction from Greenspan
FXCM Wednesday November 2, 2005 - 23:14:43 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 11-02-05

• Dollar Awaits for Direction from Greenspan
• Pound Shrugs Off Weaker Data
• Yen Extends Slide Following Dovish Comments from Policymakers

US Dollar

Profit taking in the dollar has led to mild weakness today  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (2 November 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday November 2, 2005 - 15:05:38 GMT



The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2045 level and remained supported around the $1.1990 level. As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee lifted the federal funds target rate by 25bps to 4  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday November 2, 2005 - 12:49:03 GMT

Key Points
• The FOMC’s description of US fundamentals is USD supportive, especially if further US equity market gains/oil price falls can be generated.
• However, the market is now focusing on the ECB meeting and Friday’s employment report.
• AUD and NZD weaken  More...    More...



Is the Fed right?
Black Swan Capital Wednesday November 2, 2005 - 11:48:22 GMT

Quotable

“A general rise in prices can only occur if there is either a drop in the supply of all commodities or an increase in the supply of money (in the broader sense).”

Ludwig von Mises

FX Trading

Once again the Fed tells us that inflation isn’t really that much of a problem  More...    More...



Rate trends hurt Australian dollar
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday November 2, 2005 - 10:48:57 GMT

The Australian dollar has remained under pressure over the past 24 hours and dipped to near 0.74 against the US currency. As expected, the National Bank left interest rates on hold at 5.5% while the Federal Reserve pushed US rates to 4.0% overnight. The domestic housing data was fragile, reinforcing expectations that there will be no move to tighten over the next few months  More...    More...


FOMC acts as expected, attention now focusing on ECB rate verdict
CMC Markets Wednesday November 2, 2005 - 08:45:23 GMT

November 2nd - Euro vs Dollar remains largely rangebound although the pair has edged back above the 1.20 level in Asian trade despite confirmation that the FOMC has not only hiked interest rates at their latest meeting, but looks set to continue with this hawkish approach well into the New Year  More...    More...


Forex: The FOMC - Same old Same old
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Wednesday November 2, 2005 - 07:14:50 GMT

Market Recap
The dollar hit another two-year high against the yen on Wednesday after the latest Federal Reserve rate rise, while Asian shares edged up and Tokyo's Nikkei average reached near a four-year high.

Oil stayed under $60 a barrel and Japanese government bond prices rallied a shade, although sentiment remains bearish, with an end to the Bank of Japan's zero-interest-rate policy in sight  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 2nd November 2005
FX-Strategy Wednesday November 2, 2005 - 00:48:51 GMT

Price: 116.79

Resistance: 117.10 ... 117.49 ... 117.94 ... 118.08
Support....: 116.40 ... 116.09 ... 115.85 ... 115.67

Bias: While the structure is a little unclear we favor a peak at 117.10 and base at 116.10-30

Bullish: A rather strange day which has complicated the wave count with all the ratcheting higher and therefore we do need to be a little cautious  More...    More...



FOMC Stays Course
Foreign Exchange Analytics Tuesday November 1, 2005 - 21:45:00 GMT

Bill Gross can say the Fed is just about done on tightening until he is blue in the face. Greenspan and Bernanke are not listening. Gross is not wrong to question the sustainability of the current expansion given the weak foundation it is built upon. But until the foundation buckles, Gross would do himself well to listen to the Fed  More...    More...


Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday November 1, 2005 - 20:39:28 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD in holding pattern
The NZD initially drifted lower during yesterday's local session and held near one-week lows of 0.6980/90 for the remainder of the day, lacking direction ahead of this morning's Federal Reserve meeting. Given wide expectations of a hike, the NZD/USD held a reasonably tight range as the market remained keen to see what is said in the accompanying statement  More...    More...



Fed delivers rate increase
FX Today Tuesday November 1, 2005 - 19:52:34 GMT

The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates by 0.25% to 4.0%. The statement offered no major surprises with the Fed still expecting to increase rates at the next meeting. The decision will maintain confidence in the dollar, but will probably not trigger additional buying as the statement was not quite as aggressive as expected  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (1 November 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday November 1, 2005 - 14:53:21 GMT



The euro moved moderately higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2025 level and was supported around the $1.1970 level. Technically, today’s high was around the 50% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



Buy bonds, but...
Black Swan Capital Tuesday November 1, 2005 - 12:52:20 GMT

Key News
•European manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in October (Bloomberg)
•Key reports due today (WSJ):
7:45a.m. ICSC-UBS Store Sales Index For Oct. 29 Wk. Previous: -0.2%.
8:55a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index For Oct  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday November 1, 2005 - 12:19:17 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD awaiting fresh cyclical signals.
• German coalition validity thrown into doubt.
• US ISM manufacturing and FOMC meeting feature today. Funds rate moving closer to neutrality.

Market Outlook
EUR-USD has stabilised during the European morning with the market still showing little appetite for any fresh direction  More...    More...



What to expect from the Fed
INVESTICA Ltd Tuesday November 1, 2005 - 10:59:27 GMT

The US data had a firm bias and the dollar strengthened to highs close to 1.1970 on Monday before consolidating in New York and the US currency was close to 1.20 in early Europe on Tuesday.

The US personal income reading was much stronger than expected at 1  More...    More...



Dollar tests 2 year high against Yen as higher US cash yields draw support
CMC Markets Tuesday November 1, 2005 - 08:55:22 GMT

November 1st - Speculation over the Fed’s ongoing stance as to monetary policy combined with yesterday’s upbeat economic announcements from the US have seen the dollar push to a two year high against the Yen in overnight trade. There has been a move as high as 116  More...    More...


Forex: To be measured, or to not be. That is the question
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Tuesday November 1, 2005 - 06:19:58 GMT

Market Recap
The US dollar was rangebound against the yen, with active profit-taking capping the upside after the greenback hit its highest level in more than two years. Earlier in the day, the dollar rallied to 116.67 yen, its highest level since September 16, 2003, when the US unit stood at 117  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 1st November 2005
FX-Strategy Tuesday November 1, 2005 - 01:01:34 GMT

Price: 116.55

Resistance: 116.65 ... 117.10 ... 117.49 ... 117.94
Support....: 116.07 ... 115.74 ... 115.52 ... 115.08

Bias: We cautiously feel the 116.65 level should hold for a pullback to the 115.52 area

Bullish: Breach of the resistance area between 115  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday November 1, 2005 - 00:45:54 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD gets fresh direction
Yesterday was free of any significant economic data or events during our domestic session and the NZD again found itself stuck within a narrow 20bps range. However the same could not be said overnight with NZD/USD moving steadily from its high of 0  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Benefits from Yield, Oil and Growth
FXCM Monday October 31, 2005 - 22:58:30 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-31-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

• Dollar Benefits from Yield, Oil and Growth
• Euro Retreats on Weaker German Retail Sales Data
• Dollar Yen Hits 2 Year High

US Dollar

The US dollar started this exciting and possibly volatile week firmer against all of the major currencies  More...    More...



Forex: If It Ain't Oil, It's Interest Rates
Foreign Exchange Analytics Monday October 31, 2005 - 18:59:38 GMT

Just when the global economy looked ready to be blown off course by hurricane-force headwinds generated mainly by high energy prices, the US and global expansion is facing a weather shift...the headwinds have diminished to gale-force and could fall to small craft warning if oil prices extend the decline of recent weeks  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (31 October 2005)
GCI Financial Monday October 31, 2005 - 14:34:22 GMT



The euro was given vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2005 level after encountering offers around the $1.2085 level. The pair was sharply sold from intraday highs during European dealing as traders continued to position themselves ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Monday October 31, 2005 - 14:17:43 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD direction could provide difficult once again this week, with the FOMC and ECB both likely to advance hawkish messages.
• BoJ upgrades core CPI forecast, but keeps lid on rate hike expectations.
• Telefonica/O2 cash takeover may involve limited FX  More...    More...



Competing camps
Black Swan Capital Monday October 31, 2005 - 12:25:14 GMT

Quotable

“The implementation of a policy of stabilizing prices will lead to an overproduction of some goods and underproduction of some other goods. This is, however, not what the stabilizers like Bernanke are telling us. They believe that the greatest merit of stabilizing changes in the price level is that it allows free and transparent fluctuations in relative prices, which in turn leads to the efficient allocation of scarce resources  More...    More...



Interest rate decisions in the US and Eurozone take centre stage
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday October 31, 2005 - 11:05:00 GMT

Economics Weekly: Interest rate decisions in the US and Eurozone take centre stage

Economic commentary
UK economic indicators released this week should highlight that economic growth could still pick up in the final quarter. The services PMI is expected to strengthen to 55  More...    More...



FX Briefing: Euro is winner of the week
BHF-Bank Monday October 31, 2005 - 10:56:21 GMT

FX Briefing 28 October 2005
Highlights
* ECB prepares the ground for interest rate increase
* Bernanke and the genie in a bottle
* Ifo indicates strong start to fourth quarter

Euro is winner of the week
The euro’s recovery continued this week  More...    More...



O2 bid supports Sterling
INVESTICA Ltd Monday October 31, 2005 - 10:44:55 GMT

Sterling was unable to hold its position against the dollar on Friday and weakened to lows below 1.7750 with a drop to 1.7720 in Asian trading on Monday. Sterling also come under pressure against the Euro during Friday, but recovered on Monday with Sterling pushing back to above 1  More...    More...


Nothing much to haunt currency markets today as interest rates move into focus
CMC Markets Monday October 31, 2005 - 10:02:54 GMT

October 31st - Attention in the currency markets this week is going to be squarely focused on monetary policy with both the ECB and FOMC scheduled to announce any change in interest rates in the coming days. The fact that we’ll see another 25 basis points added in the US tomorrow has already been factored into the market and last weeks run of mixed data – both economic and corporate – would certainly seem to make it difficult for anything more to be added at this time  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 31st October 2005
FX-Strategy Sunday October 30, 2005 - 13:54:42 GMT

Price: 115.66

Resistance: 115.85 ... 116.09 ... 116.50 ... 116.77
Support....: 115.08 ... 114.84 ... 114.59 ... 114.27

Bias: Mixed - watch for breaks of 115.85-93 or 115.08 to provide an additional 50-70 points

Bullish: The 115  More...    More...



About the crosses
Trendways Sunday October 30, 2005 - 10:20:54 GMT

I think we have now reached a point where it makes little difference, if at all, whether one watches EUR//JPY or GBP/JPY since either of them would be more than enough. The reason is that, seemingly, the EUR crosses v. GBP (and CHF) have become almost pegged and it is no longer worth it trading the three european currencies cross between them  More...    More...


Forex: Weekly COT report analysis
Global-View Saturday October 29, 2005 - 10:45:36 GMT

COT report analysis courtesy Cumino...




SAVE AND UNZIP    More...



Forex: Stronger GDP Data Shifts Dollar’s Focus Back to Growth and Yield
FXCM Friday October 28, 2005 - 21:09:43 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-28-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

- Stronger GDP Data Shifts Dollar’s Focus Back to Growth and Yield
- Good Eurozone Data Fails to Bolster Euro
- Weaker Japanese Economic Data Keeps the Lid on Yen Gains

US Dollar

Stronger US growth data has shifted the market’s attention right back to interest rates and yield, which is particularly timely since the next FOMC rate decision is scheduled for Tuesday  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (28 October 2005)
GCI Financial Friday October 28, 2005 - 14:22:20 GMT



The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2095 level after testing offers around the $1.2170 level. Technically, today’s high is right around the 23.6% retracement level of the move from $1  More...    More...



Euro rates: Later rather than sooner?
Black Swan Capital Friday October 28, 2005 - 12:02:08 GMT

Quotable

“The mistake of ignoring the survivorship bias is chronic, even (or perhaps especially) among professionals. How? Because we are trained to take advantage of the information that is lying in front of our eyes, ignoring the information that we do not see  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday October 28, 2005 - 10:32:32 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD looks promising, but key levels still need to break.
• Japanese data mixed – Eurozone data generally strong.
• US GDP, employment cost index and Michigan sentiment feature today.

Market Outlook
EUR-USD has remained generally firm overnight, despite a brief dip to 1  More...    More...



Euro sitting rangebound against Pound
CMC Markets Friday October 28, 2005 - 08:11:40 GMT

October 28th - Yet again we’re looking to conclude another relatively tight week of trading for the EUR GBP pair. Although there’s been a raft of economic data out from the eurozone over the last few days, the overall direction has been decidedly mixed – albeit with a slight upward trend – and as a result it is proving difficult for the common currency to make any real headway  More...    More...


Forex: Three Strikes, and the USD will be out
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Friday October 28, 2005 - 04:44:20 GMT

Market Review

Early today, the US dollar was trading weaker against the euro and yen as traders favoured further selling as lower yield differentials work against the underlying strength of the US dollar.
the US dollar was sold overnight on a larger fall in US durable goods orders for September, as well as concerns General Motors Corp could file for bankruptcy  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 28th October 2005
FX-Strategy Friday October 28, 2005 - 00:55:52 GMT

Price: 1.7823

Resistance: 1.7849 ... 1.7867 ... 1.7902 ... 1.7946
Support....: 1.7817 ... 1.7787 ... 1.7750 ... 1.7732

Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks

Bullish: The peak at 1.7902, while appearing encouraging for the underlying bullish stance, was rather unusual and thus we feel that we would like to see evidence of further gains before the rally to the 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday October 27, 2005 - 20:17:21 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD higher despite muted reaction to OCR rise
Initial reaction to the RBNZ's much anticipated increase in the OCR to 7.00% yesterday was muted with the NZD softening slightly after the announcement. The market remained pressured as USD/JPY moved above 116, with the NZD dipping briefly to an intraday low of 0  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (27 October 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday October 27, 2005 - 14:14:20 GMT



The euro appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2170 level and remained supported around the $1.2040 level. Technically, today’s high represents the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



Crude top?
Black Swan Capital Thursday October 27, 2005 - 13:40:38 GMT

Quotable

“The limitations of a trader are those of his qualities. He must subsist upon fluctuations; he eats and drinks his profits; his estate is in his pocket. Of a great opportunity in speculation he gets only the forelock.”
Garet Garrett, Where the Money Tree Grows

FX Trading

The “peak oil” crowd has enjoyed the game so far  More...    More...



Dollar on the defensive
FX Today Thursday October 27, 2005 - 13:10:31 GMT

US durable goods orders were weaker than expected with a 2.1% drop for September, but jobless claims were lower than expected at 328,000. Overall, the market still wants to push the Euro stronger with unease over the dollar leading to Euro buying on dips. The Euro will aim to take advantage of the break above 1  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 27-10-05 ..... 1219 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday October 27, 2005 - 12:34:33 GMT

Euro @ 1.2127/30.....Buy on dip
-------------------------------
R: 1.2138 / 1.2150-64
S: 1.2114 / 1.2090 / 1.2068
The Euro rose during the day to 1.2154 and found Resistance there as expected. That said, the probability of a rise to 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday October 27, 2005 - 10:35:59 GMT

Key Points
• USD buffeted by GM news – EUR-USD extends gains in Europe.
• RBNZ rate rise fails to inspire NZD.
• US durable orders feature today – Japanese data due tonight.

Market Outlook
The USD weakened in the Asian session following an announcement by General Motors that it had been subpoenaed by the SEC on some accounting and pension issues  More...    More...



Dollar fortunes turning?
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday October 27, 2005 - 10:16:18 GMT

The Euro drifted back to near 1.2050 during Wednesday. The Euro, however, found support here and pushed back above 1.21 in Asian trading on Thursday, maintaining a firm tone in early Europe with a move to near 1.2150. The dollar was undermined slightly by reports that General Motors would be investigated for alleged accounting irregularities  More...    More...


Dollar looking vulnerable yet again as range of factors start to weigh…
CMC Markets Thursday October 27, 2005 - 07:37:30 GMT

October 27th - A run of lacklustre US earnings reports yesterday underlined concerns over the state of the country’s economy and also the longer term outlook for interest rates. The greenback sell-off was further exaggerated by news that General Motors may be investigated for its accounting practices, whilst there’s also some speculation emerging that Bernanke’s appointment to the Fed could mark something of a turning point with regard to the hawkish stance over interest rates  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 27th October 2005
FX-Strategy Thursday October 27, 2005 - 00:47:25 GMT

Price: 1.7752

Resistance: 1.7797 ... 1.7820 ... 1.7847 ... 1.7867
Support....: 1.7735 ... 1.7715 ... 1.7687 ... 1.7652

Bias: While 1.7715 supports we still see risk back to 1.7867 and after a pullback to 1.7946-50

Bullish: The pullback was deeper than expected but we still see the main risk as higher  More...    More...



Libby/Rove Indictments Dollar/Bonds/Stocks Negative?
Foreign Exchange Analytics Thursday October 27, 2005 - 00:30:14 GMT

Libby/Rove Indictments Dollar/Bonds/Stocks Negative?

There is something neat in symmetry and there is nothing neater than a symmetric argument when trying to figure out what may or may not happen to US assets and the dollar on Thursday (or Friday) when the special investigator of the White House CIA-agent-leak announces preliminary findings which most insiders believe will include criminal indictments against President Bush's and VP Cheney's top aides de camp  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday October 27, 2005 - 00:23:33 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD steady ahead of OCR announcement
Yesterday's NBNZ business outlook survey revealed weaker activity across most of its components, however this had no effect on the market and a quiet domestic session was experienced with the NZD hovering near a 6-week high of 0  More...    More...



Forex: Politics Poses a Risk to Dollar Rally
FXCM Wednesday October 26, 2005 - 20:27:53 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-26-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Politics Poses a Risk to Dollar Rally
• Business Confidence Across Europe Improves Thanks to Weaker Euro
• Uridashi Bond Issuances Pushes Yen Lower

US Dollar

Another day devoid of any significant US economic data gave the dollar a chance to recuperate yesterday’s extensive losses  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (26 October 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday October 26, 2005 - 14:50:33 GMT



The euro retraced much of its intraday losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2050 level and was capped around the CHF 1.2135 level. Today’s high is about ten pips above a short-term technical resistance level that represents the 76  More...    More...



Euro consolidates
FX Today Wednesday October 26, 2005 - 14:40:29 GMT

With little in the way of fresh incentives, the Euro has consolidated yesterday’s gains. Given the lack of momentum, there is the risk of a further test of 1.2050 against the dollar in the short term as consolidation continues. There is the potential for another Euro push stronger from there  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 26-10-05 ..... 1209 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday October 26, 2005 - 12:38:46 GMT

Euro @ 1.2068/71.....The best trade
-----------------------------------
R: 1.2096-99 / 1.2117-22 / 1.2138
S: 1.2059-43 / 1.2024-16
The Euro has fallen back below 1.2090 after risng to 1.2138 during the day. This suggests that the buying interest is weak and a further dip towards 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday October 26, 2005 - 11:52:06 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD gives up early European gains – needs to hold 1.2050.
• Australian CPI remains subdued, Japanese export strength continues.
• RBNZ rate announcement features today.

Market Outlook
Encouraged by the positive price action of yesterday, EUR-USD broke higher early in European trading, moving above the 1  More...    More...



US doubts underpin Sterling
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday October 26, 2005 - 10:27:56 GMT

Sterling pushed ahead strongly against the dollar on Tuesday as the US currency came under pressure. Sterling pushed to highs above 1.7850 before a consolidation in New York and Sterling was holding above 1.78 in early Europe on Wednesday before profit taking pushed the UK currency lower  More...    More...


Yen finds limited upside off wavering US consumer confidence but rising oil prices lead to concern.
CMC Markets Wednesday October 26, 2005 - 08:04:24 GMT

October 26th - Suggestions that we’re going to be in for a cold winter have pushed oil prices higher overnight and this – combined with yesterday’s surprise US consumer confidence reading – have ensured that the dollar remains under a degree of pressure. The Yen has managed to claw back some of the recent losses and a slide towards 120 may be on hold at least temporarily, although USD JPY remains above 115 for the time being  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 26th October 2005
FX-Strategy Wednesday October 26, 2005 - 01:23:30 GMT

Price: 1.2757

Resistance: 1.2777 ... 1.2802 ... 1.2831 ... 1.2850
Support....: 1.2742 ... 1.2705 ... 1.2680 ... 1.2669

Bias: While 1.2777 caps there is risk for a dip to 1.2705 before a larger pullback

Bullish: Loss of 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday October 25, 2005 - 20:52:42 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD holds 70c despite USD swings
The NZD softened from early highs of 0.7040, during the domestic session, yesterday following comments from Michael Cullen in a Reuters interview. The Finance Minister remarked that the NZD was at "unsustainable levels", with a "sharp depreciation" of the currency and a "hard landing" for the economy possible  More...    More...



Forex: Stronger German IFO and Weaker US Consumer Confidence Pushes EURUSD Higher
FXCM Tuesday October 25, 2005 - 20:19:16 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-23-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.fxcm.com

• FXCM SSI Signals Euro May Have Hit a Bottom
• Stronger German IFO and Weaker US Consumer Confidence Pushes EURUSD Higher
• Inflation Warning Bells Continue to Ring in UK and Europe

US Dollar

The dollar has taken another nosedive today following a dose of weaker economic data and some lingering pessimism stemming from yesterday’s announcement that Ben Bernanke will be the next Fed Chairman  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (25 October 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday October 25, 2005 - 15:15:38 GMT



The euro scored major gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2110 level and was supported around the $1.1935 level. Stops were triggered above the $1.2035/ 75 levels – important short-term technical levels – during North American dealing  More...    More...



Confidence falters
FX Today Tuesday October 25, 2005 - 14:21:43 GMT

The US consumer confidence index was weaker than expected with a drop to 85.0 in October from 87.5 in September while new home sales were unchanged. Confidence in the US economy is likely to falter slightly while Euro confidence has been supported by a firm IFO figure earlier today  More...    More...


Chairman Bernanke Changes Style And Substance At Fed Helm
Foreign Exchange Analytics Tuesday October 25, 2005 - 14:17:34 GMT

The only surprising thing about President Bush naming Ben Bernanke to succeed Chairman Greenspan at the helm of the FRB was that it was not a surprise. Perhaps a low political capital meter reading, trouble with Miers nomination to the Supremes and more respect for financial markets allowed for the most logical transfer to the former Princeton University Econ Prof  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 25-10-05 ..... 1225 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday October 25, 2005 - 12:26:40 GMT

FX Thoughts - Evening - 25/10/05
Evening Edition
1740 IST or 1210 GMT or 0810 EST

Euro @ 1.2020/23....Resistance at 1.2050
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.2030-49 / 1.2082 / 1.2113-22
S: 1  More...    More...



AUD waits for inflation data
INVESTICA Ltd Tuesday October 25, 2005 - 11:08:06 GMT

The Australian dollar pushed to 0.7520 against the dollar, but struggled to make any strong headway and settled back to 0.7495 in early Europe on Tuesday before rallying again as the US currency hit fresh selling pressure. There will be caution ahead of the Wednesday inflation data, especially as there are uncertainties over Reserve Bank policy  More...    More...


Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday October 25, 2005 - 10:34:41 GMT

Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD boosted by strong IFO number.
• Bernanke nomination causes some excitement, but ultimately the market will reserve its judgement.
• Canadian CPI, US consumer confidence feature today  More...    More...



Currencies largely unmoved by Fed nomination; Cable poised for move lower
CMC Markets Tuesday October 25, 2005 - 08:22:28 GMT

October 25th - Equity markets may have been buoyed last night on the back of news that White House economist Ben Bernanke has been nominated as Alan Greenspan’s replacement, but so far there’s been little reaction amongst currency traders. Although this nomination requires ratification by Senate, it’s more likely the fact that there’s going to be little discernable change from the current hawkish stance over monetary policy at the Fed that has left the major pairs trading in tight ranges overnight  More...    More...


Forex: The market can remain irrational, longer than you can remain solvent
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Tuesday October 25, 2005 - 05:45:33 GMT

Market Recap

The US dollar was trading firmer against the euro and yen but range trading will remain until there are fresh drivers to act on.
The US dollar weakened overnight in the absence of fresh economic data, failing to gather support from the announcement that Ben Bernanke will become the Federal Reserve chairman when Alan Greenspan retires on Jan 31  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 25th October 2005
FX-Strategy Tuesday October 25, 2005 - 00:36:05 GMT

Price: 1.2897

Resistance: 1.2925 ... 1.2949 ... 1.2964 ... 1.2985
Support....: 1.2862 ... 1.2848 ... 1.2831 ... 1.2802

Bias: We prefer a bullish stance but require 1.2848-64 to support for gains towards 1.2964-85 initially

Bullish: Losses were deeper than expected but held above the 1  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 24-10-05 ..... 1140 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday October 24, 2005 - 11:46:24 GMT


Euro @ 1.1946/49....Range 1.1863-2100
---------------------------------------
R: 1.1975-80 / 1.2015-30
S: 1.1925 / 1.1900 / 1.1878-63
Buying interest seems to be weak (given the fall from 1.2080) on Friday. Overall bearish, and break below 1  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (24 October 2005)
GCI Financial Monday October 24, 2005 - 11:35:19 GMT



The euro moved marginally lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1920 level and was capped around the $1.1955 level. The big item on the agenda this week for traders is the release of Q3 U  More...    More...



Is the negative UK yield spread warning of recession?
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday October 24, 2005 - 10:33:03 GMT

Economics Weekly: Economic Research and Analysis – Is the negative UK yield spread warning of recession?

Yield curves and recessions
Many people have argued that the negative yield spread (where long term interest rates are lower than short term interest rates) in the UK has been suggesting that recession is possible  More...    More...



Dollar edges higher once again as inflationary pressures and interest rates return to focus
CMC Markets Monday October 24, 2005 - 08:06:43 GMT

October 24th - There’s little of note on the economic calendar as the new trading week gets underway, so traders are once again turning their attention to the US dollar and the next meeting of the FOMC which is scheduled for November 1st. US inflationary pressures remain high so there’s some real consensus that we’ll see yet another hike in rates next week and on the back of this we’ve seen the dollar gain ground essentially across the board in Asian trade  More...    More...


USD/JPY analysis and outlook
Trendways Sunday October 23, 2005 - 10:44:20 GMT

The $/JPY case has been different and much more looking like a classic model case. We had the last (upside) model break at 110.90 on August 30 followed by a smooth technical trend already lasting for seven weeks and yielding a 5 big figure uptrend which has pulled the TC to 90+ levels  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 24th October 2005
FX-Strategy Sunday October 23, 2005 - 10:04:24 GMT

Price: 1.2921

Resistance: 1.2937 ... 1.2959 ... 1.2985 ... 1.3006
Support....: 1.2891 ... 1.2862 ... 1.2823 ... 1.2802

Bias: While 1.2891-1.2907 supports we see progress to 1.3038 at least and possibly 1.3080-1.3130

Bullish: The reversal back above 1  More...    More...



Forex Weekly COT Analysis
Global-View Saturday October 22, 2005 - 12:06:01 GMT

COT Analysis courtesy Cumino

SAVE AND UNZIP    More...



Forex: Dollar Set to Tackle 1.19 Once Again
FXCM Friday October 21, 2005 - 20:59:06 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-21-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Dollar Set to Tackle 1.19 Once Again
· Pound Slides on Weaker Growth Data
· Dollar Yen – Just a Hair Shy of 2 Year High

US Dollar - In Thursday’s FXCM SSI report and Daily Fundamentals, we said that even though the dollar gave back some of its gains over the past 2 days, range trading should remain the predominant theme for the EUR/USD since there will not be any meaningful catalyst until next week  More...    More...



FX Briefing 21 October 2005
BHF-Bank Friday October 21, 2005 - 16:38:33 GMT

Highlights
• Dollar’s big interest rate advantage leads to sustained inflows, especially from Japan
• US GDP growth in Q3 remains robust despite burdens

Dollar remains well supported
Towards the middle of the week, USD-JPY climbed to 115  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (21 October 2005)
GCI Financial Friday October 21, 2005 - 14:37:40 GMT



The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2075 level and remained supported around $1.2000 figure. Comments from Federal Reserve officials continue to be hawkish and suggest the Federal Open Market Committee will not deviate at this time from its current monetary tightening cycle  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 21-10-05 ..... 1207 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday October 21, 2005 - 12:12:29 GMT


Euro @ 1.2003/6....Range 1.1965-2080
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.2030-45 / 1.2080 / 1.2115-24
S: 1.1997-93 / 1.1976-69
The Euro has chosen to drop back from the morning high of 1.2080. The outlook is totally hazy now with the market ranged between 1  More...    More...



Volatility and Liquidity
Black Swan Capital Friday October 21, 2005 - 11:26:55 GMT

Key News
•Key reports due today (WSJ):
No major economic indicators are scheduled for today.

Quotable
“Don’t fight the Fed.”

Marty Zweig

FX Trading
A wise friend, who is a bit concerned about the market, forwarded us Jeremy Grantham’s quarterly letter  More...    More...



Forex:Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday October 21, 2005 - 10:35:12 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD steadier while above 1.2000-25.
• Strong Japanese data and weakening oil prices offer hope for the JPY – but 115.00 needs to break.
• UK GDP in line with expectations.
• Canadian retail sales feature today.

Market Outlook
DJapanese activity indices came out stronger than expected and the Japanese economic recovery seems to be progressing well (see chart)  More...    More...



Position adjustment hampers dollar
INVESTICA Ltd Friday October 21, 2005 - 10:06:14 GMT

The underlying yield considerations will remain negative for the Swiss currency. Risk aversion levels are likely to rise, however, and the franc will also tend to benefit from a liquidation of short franc positions to buy high-yield and high-risk assets. In this context, lower energy prices could offer short-term franc support on position adjustment even though it would lessen longer-term backing  More...    More...


Dollar, Yen both looking exposed as weekend break approaches.
CMC Markets Friday October 21, 2005 - 08:06:26 GMT

October 21st - The dollar is continuing to ebb as traders once again focus on the outlook for the US economy. Falling demand for oil, inflationary pressures from increased public spending and mixed corporate earnings are all combining to paint a somewhat difficult outlook for the greenback and this is being reflected in recent flows  More...    More...


Forex: Will this be the Friday when the Euro goes on with it?
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Friday October 21, 2005 - 06:38:37 GMT

Market Recap
The dollar was off lows against the yen in afternoon Asian trading after sliding to below 115 yen earlier on stop-loss selling. Despite its choppy movements today, the dollar is expected to keep its firm tone against the yen as Japanese investors buy the dollar on hopes US interest rates will rise further  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 21st October 2005
FX-Strategy Friday October 21, 2005 - 00:37:10 GMT

Price: 1.2022

Resistance: 1.2039 ... 1.2066 ... 1.2093 ... 1.2124
Support....: 1.1956 ... 1.1938 ... 1.1899 ... 1.1874

Bias: There is still resistance at the 1.2060-72 area which if cleared will allow follow-through to 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday October 20, 2005 - 21:13:23 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD above 0.7000 ahead of Labour Day weekend
The NZD was again constrained within a tight 0.6970-0.6992 range on Thursday, with trading lacklustre ahead of Monday's Labour Day holiday and next week's RBNZ OCR review. Overnight, the US currency paused for breath after its recent stellar performance, despite the release of a stronger-than-expected Philadelphia Fed Index  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Extends Slide as Leading Indicators Fall for Third Month
FXCM Thursday October 20, 2005 - 21:11:57 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-20-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Dollar Extends Slide as Leading Indicators Fall for Third Month
· Merkel’s Ability to Tackle Reforms in Germany Remains in Question
· Pound Rallies on Strong Consumer Spending Numbers

US Dollar

The dollar extended its losses today as the greenback continued to trade between a 1  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (20 October 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday October 20, 2005 - 14:02:58 GMT



The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1945 level after testing offers around the $1.2000 figure. The common currency’s downside may be limited today by traders’ close observation of hurricane Wilma that is now forecast to strike the Yucatan peninsula and Florida  More...    More...



No US interest rate increases in 2006?
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday October 20, 2005 - 13:49:07 GMT

The Fed will remain nervous over inflation trends in the short term with increased fears that the jump in energy prices seen in September will cause secondary price pressures. There will certainly be the risk of a wider inflation increase over the next few months, although the most likely outcome is that any increase will be measured  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 19-10-05 ..... 1220 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday October 20, 2005 - 12:25:29 GMT

Euro @ 1.1958/61....Between 1.1905-2045
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.1985 / 1.2008-28 / 1.2046-53
S: 1.1956-48 / 1.1906-93 / 1.1878-66
The Euro has been quiet so far since the morning, as expected. The US session could see it rise towards 1  More...    More...



Hodgepodge
Black Swan Capital Thursday October 20, 2005 - 11:26:51 GMT

Key News
•Key reports due today (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Oct. 15 Wk. Consensus: -29K. Previous: -2K.
10a.m. Sept. Conference Board Leading Indicators. Consensus: -0.4%. Previous: -0.2%.
10a.m. DJ-BTM Business Barometer For Oct  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday October 20, 2005 - 10:43:29 GMT

Key Points
• Yesterday’s volatility introduces some uncertainty to short-term direction.
• EUR-USD downside still favoured overall but above 1.2000-25 could see some initial stabilisation. 1.1868 needs to be cleared to open downside.
• UK data strength further undermines November rate cut argument  More...    More...



Dollar correction?
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday October 20, 2005 - 10:26:02 GMT

The dollar weakened back towards 1.20 in New York on a reduction in long dollar positions. The Euro was unable to push through this level and held close to 1.1965 in early Europe on Thursday.

Interest rate expectations will remain important with markets still looking for a series of rate increases from the Federal Reserve to combat inflation  More...    More...



Forex: The USD comes off again, but the Euro won't be able to stay up
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Thursday October 20, 2005 - 07:56:36 GMT

Market Recap
The dollar's upward drive against the yen and the euro stalled in midday trade here, with the upside capped by some technically driven profit taking after the greenback failed to break through key resistance levels overnight.
The Federal Reserve latest Beige Book survey, released overnight, showed that moderate economic activity continued in most regions even after the damage caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 20th October 2005
FX-Strategy Thursday October 20, 2005 - 01:19:44 GMT

Price: 1.1974

Resistance: 1.1999 ... 1.2017 ... 1.2039 ... 1.2067
Support....: 1.1951 ... 1.1931 ... 1.1899 ... 1.1874

Bias: To keep the upward momentum we require 1.1931-51 to support and for a break above 1.2002 then 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday October 20, 2005 - 01:00:47 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD seen within familiar range
Despite continued broad based USD strength, the Kiwi Dollar again traded within familiar confines during the local session yesterday. Overnight, the market traded both sides of the 0.6940-0.6972 local session range, with hawkish comments from the Fed's Kohn & Pianalto and strong US housing starts underpinning the US currency  More...    More...



Forex: Euro Rebounds Against Dollar on Less Optimistic Beige Book Report
FXCM Wednesday October 19, 2005 - 20:59:22 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-19-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

· Euro Rebounds Against Dollar on Less Optimistic Beige Book Report
· Strong Industrial Production Leads to Reversal in EURUSD
· Pound Rallies on Unanimous Vote to Leave Rates Unchanged

US Dollar

For our readers who were trading during the European session, the price action was extremely exciting as the EURUSD made a fresh 3 month high and then reversed the entire down move by the open of the US markets  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (19 October 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday October 19, 2005 - 14:30:08 GMT



The euro moved marginally lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1875 level but quickly recovered by moving above the $1.1900 figure. This is the first time the common currency traded with a $1  More...    More...



Drum Roll....The Next Fed Chairman
Foreign Exchange Analytics Wednesday October 19, 2005 - 13:09:10 GMT

I think it is no secret in Washington that President Bush will name a successor to Chairman Greenspan in November and try and get the Senate to confirm before Congress recesses in December. Indeed the USA Today, today, reported that a White House official involved in the search indicated there would be a selection announced in early November  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 19-10-05 ..... 1154 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday October 19, 2005 - 12:05:24 GMT

Euro @ 1.1956/59...Skittish market. Stay out
--------------------------------------------
R: 1.1964-72 / 1.2009-15-39
S: 1.1915 / 1.1895 / 1.1878-63
Evidently the 1.1878-63 Support is a huge one and people are not willing to let is break immediately  More...    More...



Flawed Perceptions
Black Swan Capital Wednesday October 19, 2005 - 11:24:40 GMT

Key News
•Key reports due today (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Sept. Housing Starts. Previous: -1.3%.

Quotable
“Nature’s admonition to avoid the dice altogether...[E]veryone who bets any part of his fortune, however small, on a mathematically fair game of chance acts irrationally…[T]he imprudence of a gambler will be the greater the larger part of his fortune which he exposes to a game of chance  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday October 19, 2005 - 10:58:55 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD weakens in early Europe before reversing sharply higher.
• Many currencies close to key levels against the USD, but overall upside USD risk remains in place.
• UK MPC minutes slightly less dovish than expected.
• Fed speakers and the Beige Book feature today  More...    More...



Bank warning supports Sterling
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday October 19, 2005 - 10:01:28 GMT

Sterling fell to a low just below 1.7450 against the US currency on Tuesday after stronger than expected US data, but the UK currency managed to strengthen back to just above 1.75. The UK currency again managed to recover from lows below 1.7450 against the dollar on Wednesday as levels below 1  More...    More...


Prospect of further rate hikes continues to lead dollar higher…
CMC Markets Wednesday October 19, 2005 - 09:31:48 GMT

October 19th - Yesterday’s US PPI numbers have served to drive the dollar higher still against the major currencies as the prospect of a continued hawkish stance over monetary policy from the Fed in the near future continues to favour the greenback. The fact that UK CPI came in at only 2  More...    More...


Forex: The Euro's on the edge of an abyss
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Wednesday October 19, 2005 - 06:21:02 GMT

Market Recap
The US dollar was firmer against major currencies in midday trade on fresh expectations for further US rate hikes in the wake of new economic data showing a sharp uptick in inflation. In addition strong capital inflows into the US in August further underpinned the greenback's strength  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 19th October 2005
FX-Strategy Wednesday October 19, 2005 - 00:50:40 GMT

Price: 1.1933

Resistance: 1.1988 ... 1.2009 ... 1.2042 ... 1.2062
Support....: 1.1907 ... 1.1881 ... 1.1864 ... 1.1827

Bias: We look for 1.1977-88 to cap and for losses to 1.1899 and later to 1.1827

Bullish: Losses seen as anticipated and we feel the pullback from 1  More...    More...



Forex: Brief Anecdotes On Market Position
Foreign Exchange Analytics Tuesday October 18, 2005 - 22:51:59 GMT

Get a distinct sense that discretionary traders in hedge funds and banks are not carrying lots of risk in FX majors - i.e. the dollar. The range in then euro in place since the beginning of the summer is intact until 1.1865 goes and it would appear that every reserve manager is quite happy to buy euros near 1  More...    More...


Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday October 18, 2005 - 22:46:51 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD crosses firm as Uridashi issuance continues
Despite a sharp appreciation of the USD against other major currencies during the local session, NZD/USD traded within a familiar range of 0.6940-0.6971 yesterday. This resilience against the USD, however, has seen the Kiwi appreciate markedly on the crosses and the 80 level against the Yen and 0  More...    More...



Forex: Talk of 5.5% Neutral Rates Pushes Dollar Higher
FXCM Tuesday October 18, 2005 - 21:00:06 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-18-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Talk of 5.5% Neutral Rates Pushes Dollar Higher
· Pound Slide Limited as Housing Market Shows Signs of Bottoming
· Japanese Officials Have No Plans To Stop Yen’s Slide

US Dollar

With both momentum and economic fundamentals on its side, dollar bulls had the confidence to take yet another stab at its 3 month high against the euro  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (18 October 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday October 18, 2005 - 15:15:22 GMT



The euro extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1915 level and was capped around the $1.2030 level. Technically, today’s low was a mere fifteen pips from a recent multi-month low and dealers believe it is only a matter of time before the common currency trades with a $1  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 18-10-05 ..... 1205 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday October 18, 2005 - 12:45:19 GMT


Euro @ 1.1946/49....Crucial Support above 1.1863
-------------------------------------------------
R: 1.1989 / 1.2012-28-39 / 1.2055
S: 1.1932-16 / 1.1878-63 / 1.1826
Range Support between 1.1932-16 and then all-important Bear SHS Neckline Support at 1  More...    More...



Tipping Point?
Black Swan Capital Tuesday October 18, 2005 - 11:21:48 GMT

Key News
•A report by Georgetown Economic Services said China understated its trade surplus in 2004 by as much as US$233bn. (AustralAsian Investment Review)
•Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda said the government is unlikely to try to stem the decline in the yen  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday October 18, 2005 - 10:53:07 GMT

Key Points
• USD remains strong in general – building on the USD-JPY break above 115.
• Storm course shifts away from oil facilities.
• US PPI, TIC data and BoC policy decision feature today.

Market Outlook
Better news on the weather front was a supporting factor for the USD overnight (see below), although the USD-JPY blast through 115  More...    More...



Where next for Sterling
INVESTICA Ltd Tuesday October 18, 2005 - 10:03:47 GMT

Sterling retreated on Monday with loses to near 1.7525 against the dollar and 0.6870 against the Euro. In part, this was a reaction to Friday's gains, but there were also some wider economic fears. Sterling weakened to just below 1.75 in early Europe on Tuesday with a further retreat to 1  More...    More...


Profit taking against dollar finishes as downside pressure on Yen resumes…
CMC Markets Tuesday October 18, 2005 - 09:25:13 GMT

The greenback has resumed its rally against the Yen after a brief spell of profit taking, with a sustained move past the psychologically important 115 mark and a return to levels not seen since 2003. US inflationary concerns – and the Fed’s anticipated reaction to these – continue to be seen as the main driver behind the ongoing support that is being given to the greenback, whilst with no tangible signs of expansion coming out of Tokyo, the Yen looks set to remain somewhat on the back foot  More...    More...


Forex: Hold your profit too long, and it'll turn into a loss
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Tuesday October 18, 2005 - 06:09:24 GMT

Market Recap

The dollar turned top-heavy in afternoon trade as technically-driven profit-taking set in after the US unit hit a two-year high earlier in the day. Earlier in Asian trade, the dollar rose to 115.39 yen, its highest level since Sept 19, 2003, which market watchers attributed to growing expectations interest rate differentials between Japan and the US are set to widen further  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 2005
FX-Strategy Tuesday October 18, 2005 - 00:41:47 GMT

Price: 115.08

Resistance: 115.40 ... 115.84 ... 116.20 ... 116.48
Support....: 114.88 ... 114.55 ... 114.25 ... 114.02

Bias: Breach this morning of 115.08 suggests further strength to 115.40 minimum and possibly 115  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Rallies on Speculation that Fed will Aggressively Tackle Inflation
FXCM Monday October 17, 2005 - 21:05:41 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-17-05

· Dollar Rallies on Speculation that Fed will Aggressively Tackle Inflation
· German ZEW Survey Expected to Rebound
· Pound Slides as Deputy Governor Long Resigns

US Dollar

The US dollar has gained strength in a relatively quiet day as the market prepares for tomorrow’s heavy dose of global economic data  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday October 17, 2005 - 20:56:31 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: Q3 CPI reinforces case for OCR hike
The NZD again took centre stage during the Australasian time zone yesterday with the release of Q3 inflation data. While a CPI increase of 1.1% was slightly below expectations, the annualised rate of 3  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (17 October 2005)
GCI Financial Monday October 17, 2005 - 13:35:58 GMT



The euro slumped vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2010 level and was capped around the $1.2120 level. The pair’s reversal during Asian dealing was abrupt after the common currency printed at levels not seen since 10 October  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 17-10-05 ..... 1221 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday October 17, 2005 - 12:26:31 GMT

Euro @ 1.2022/5....Range 1.22 to 1.19
---------------------------------------
R: 1.2075 / 1.2112-24 / 1.2145
S: 1.2032-28-14 / 1.1991-88-79
Dollar strength has resurfaced again today. The Euro is now likely to trade up and down between 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Monday October 17, 2005 - 10:35:25 GMT

Key Points
• USD bounces back strongly in Europe.
• New storm heading towards the Gulf, although as yet there is little clarity on its likely power or direction.
• Upside bias remains on the USD, although sentiment will be sensitive to data (and weather) developments  More...    More...



Should there be more concern about UK consumer price inflation?
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday October 17, 2005 - 10:01:17 GMT

Economics Weekly: Economic Research and Analysis -

Should there be more concern about UK consumer price inflation?

Inflation to remain in the news
With the release of September consumer price data this week, and the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that month (when interest rates were left on hold at 4  More...    More...



Dollar vulnerable if growth falters
INVESTICA Ltd Monday October 17, 2005 - 09:47:35 GMT

The dollar challenged the 1.20 level again during Friday, but was unable to hold gains and weakened in New York to lows of 1.2095. The dollar recovered from lows of 1.2120 on Monday to challenge 1.2050 and nervous range trading could dominate in the short term  More...    More...


Dollar continues to ease ahead of mid-week data.
CMC Markets Monday October 17, 2005 - 07:38:37 GMT

October 17th - The dollar continued to retreat in early Asian trade although Friday’s profit taking does now seem to be running out of steam. With little on the economic calendar through today’s session, fundamental direction is likely to prove difficult to come by so instead it seems as if the technicals could play a more significant role although key psychological support levels – 114 on the Yen, 1  More...    More...


Forex: Is this the start of the USD routing?
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Monday October 17, 2005 - 06:27:13 GMT

Market Recap

The dollar slid in late trade Friday, pressured by news that headline consumer inflation last month registered its largest advance in more than 25 years while consumer spending slowed. Traders said the weight on the dollar was compounded by liquidations of long positions as institutions shifted accounts away from the scandal-rocked commodities broker Refco Inc  More...    More...



USD/JPY medium/long term pattern
Trendways Sunday October 16, 2005 - 17:23:16 GMT

From Trendways weekly analysis:

The case of $/JPY is a different one and we may speak of prevailing patterns, good until proven otherwise. There are two major longer term support lines and theoretical channels can be formed by drawing parallels to those lines through this year's summer high around 113  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 17th October 2005
FX-Strategy Sunday October 16, 2005 - 07:07:33 GMT

Price: 113.99

Resistance: 114.30 ... 114.69 ... 115.08 ... 115.40
Support....: 113.73 ... 113.53 ... 113.27 ... 113.00

Bias: We look for 114.30-50 to cap and for losses to 113.00 and possibly 112.70

Bullish: Price broke below the 114  More...    More...



FOREX Commitment of Traders Report Analysis
Global-View Saturday October 15, 2005 - 12:22:11 GMT

COT Analysis courtesy Cumino

SAVE AND UNZIP     More...



FX Briefing 14 October 2005
BHF-Bank Saturday October 15, 2005 - 11:27:54 GMT

Highlights
• US central bank emphasizes growing inflation concerns in speeches and minutes
• US data and Beige Book will probably confirm Fed’s position
• G20 summit of finance ministers and central bankers in Beijing unlikely to affect dollar

Dollar firmly in Fed’s interest rate grip
The dollar has remained stable  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Reverses as Dark Cloud Hangs Over Data
FXCM Friday October 14, 2005 - 20:48:59 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-14-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist at www.dailyfx.com

· Dollar Reverses as Dark Cloud Hangs Over Data
· Euro Breaks Higher as Inflation Pressures Continue to Rise
· Mergers and Acquisition Activity Fuels Pound Rally

US Dollar

The dollar is down once again but today’s move was far more substantial and psychologically significant than the rallies that we have seen all week  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (14 October 2005)
GCI Financial Friday October 14, 2005 - 14:19:13 GMT



The euro extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1975 level and was capped around the $1.2060 level. Technically, today’s high was just above the 50% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



Beware of volatility
FX Today Friday October 14, 2005 - 13:07:00 GMT

The US data was mixed with a 1.2% increase in consumer prices, but the core increase was held to 0.1% and this should dampen expectations of more aggressive Fed action to increase interest rates. Retail sales rose 0.2% and dropped excluding gasoline sales  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 14-10-05 ..... 1229 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday October 14, 2005 - 12:38:29 GMT

Euro @ 1.1990/3.....Mixed up today
----------------------------------
R: 1.200-21 / 1.2048 / 1.2061-87
S: 1.1954 / 1.1938 / 1.1912-10
The flip-flop in the market over the last 24 hours has mixed up and scattered all the short term (24 hour) probabilities  More...    More...



Guess that Chart
Black Swan Capital Friday October 14, 2005 - 11:42:59 GMT

Key News
•Annual growth in China's money supply at the end of September hit its fastest pace in nearly 1 years - a clear sign that the government has eased up on credit controls to keep the economy humming along briskly. (The Standard)
•A committee in Japan's upper house approved privatization of the postal service on Friday  More...    More...



GVI Forex Market Tracker
Global-View Friday October 14, 2005 - 11:05:38 GMT


10/14/05 11:30 GMT
3MO % bp chg 1 wk 4 wk 3mo 2005 12 mo
AUS 563 -1 1 0 -1 20 21
YEN 6 -0 -0 1 1 1 1
STG 458 1 1 -2 -8 -31 -31
EUR 218 -0 -1 4 6 3 3
ECHF 80 0 0 4 5 8 9
CAD 310 0 2 17 46 52 52
US 416 1 4 27 55 160 209

2YR % bp chg 1 wk 4 wk 3mo YTD 12 mo
AUS 538 4 10 21 18 33 33
JGB 24 0 3 8 24 24 24
GILT 419 0 11 4 13 -12 -29
BUND 240 -1 1 17 21 -2 1
CHF 109 -9 -6 8 11 25 15
CAD 341 0 6 27 35 41 21
US 426 2 8 29 40 118 175

10YR % bp chg 1 wk 4 wk 3mo YTD 12 mo
AUS 545 4 12 23 25 12 13
JGB 157 0 5 23 30 13 12
GILT 439 -0 13 14 6 -14 -34
BUND 327 -1 10 14 -1 -36 -62
CHF 191 1 2 9 -14 -47 -71
CAD 407 2 13 15 15 -23 -49
US 448 1 12 21 30 26 43

10-2YR % bp chg 1 wk 4 wk 3mo YTD 12 mo
AUS 7 0 2 2 7 -21 -20
JGB 133 0 3 15 6 -11 -12
GILT 15 -0 2 10 -7 -2 -5
BUND 87 -0 8 -3 -22 -34 -63
CHF 86 9 8 0 -25 -72 -86
CAD 66 2 8 -12 -20 -64 -70
US 22 -1 5 -8 -10 -92 -132

STOCKS CHG % 1 wk 4 wk 3mo YTD 12 mo
ALL-ORD 4371 -0  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday October 14, 2005 - 10:53:21 GMT

Key Points
• Outside chance of further end-of-week pullback today, although overall upside USD risk remains in
place.
• Refco situation is raising some question marks about market dislocation.
• US data could be influential today – retail sales, CPI, industrial output, capacity utilisation, Michigan sentiment and business sales/inventories feature  More...    More...



Yield focus dangerous
INVESTICA Ltd Friday October 14, 2005 - 09:47:57 GMT

The dollar held steady ahead of the US trade data on Thursday and, after a rally, the US currency hit selling pressure in New York. The dollar weakened to 1.2025 from high of 1.1915. After finding support at 1.2050, the dollar was holding close to 1.2020 in early Europe on Friday with a mood of caution prevailing  More...    More...


Dollar rally pauses as traders look to book profits
CMC Markets Friday October 14, 2005 - 06:25:25 GMT

October 14th - The dollar is edging back now after a week of steady gains, with one of the most significant points being a break above 115 against the JPY. This move has proved to be short lived – at least for the time being – and a degree of profit taking from previous long dollar positions does appear to be weighing on the greenback  More...    More...


Forex: Could be a mixed end to the week with so much data out
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Friday October 14, 2005 - 05:12:52 GMT

Market Recap

The US dollar was pushed lower against other major currencies in early afternoon trading here, owing to position-adjustments ahead of the release later today of US consumer price index (CPI) data.
In overseas markets overnight, the US dollar surged to 115  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 14th October 2005
FX-Strategy Friday October 14, 2005 - 00:47:12 GMT

Price: 1.7524

Resistance: 1.7572 ... 1.7599 ... 1.7612 ... 1.7637
Support....: 1.7508 ... 1.7481 ... 1.7460 ... 1.7442

Bias: While the 1.7570-99 area caps we look for a mostly lower day to 1.7442 at least but no further than 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Friday October 14, 2005 - 00:31:58 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD slides as USD/JPY eyes 115
The NZD was pressured from an early high of 0.6978 during the local session yesterday. Broadbased USD strength saw the market eye key 17-month highs against the yen above 115, further weighing on local currencies  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Gives Back Gains Ahead of Critical Data
FXCM Thursday October 13, 2005 - 21:16:56 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-13-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Dollar Gives Back Gains Ahead of Critical Data
· Euro Surges as ECB Reaffirms Hawkish Bias
· Pound Rebounds Despite Weaker Economic Data

US Dollar - It has been a rock and roll day in the currency markets with the dollar first rallying within 10 pips of its 3 month high on the back of better than expected economic data but then to erase nearly all of its gains in the late afternoon session  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (13 October 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday October 13, 2005 - 14:04:01 GMT



The euro extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1935 level and was capped around the $1.2040 level. Traders moved into dollars after the release of the U.S. August trade deficit data that came in around expectations at –$59  More...    More...



FXA Alert. Dollar Ignores Worsening Structural Imbalances, Eye On Cyclicals
Foreign Exchange Analytics Thursday October 13, 2005 - 13:08:26 GMT

Dollar has firmed in the wake of the wider US Aug trade deficit, close to expectations (little under). Not suggesting trade deficit of $59bln is a relief for dollar from structural standpoint - it is quite the opposite. But market is not focused on imbalances, but rather interest rates and in the US right now they are high and getting higher across the yield curve  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 13-10-05 ..... 1205 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday October 13, 2005 - 12:24:35 GMT


Euro @ 1.1980/83.....Sell on rally
----------------------------------
R: 1.2000-02 / 1.2029-40 / 1.2069-81
S: 1.1953 / 1.1934-10 / 1.1890
Multilayered Resistances present overhead, as given above. There's room on the downside to 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday October 13, 2005 - 11:05:29 GMT

Key Points
• USD remains generally firm ahead of US trade data.
• Short-term upside favoured - certain barriers need to be overcome.
• Australian labour market data leaves AUD vulnerable.
• UK BCC survey weaker.
• US and Canadian trade data feature  More...    More...



Employment drop hurts AUD
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday October 13, 2005 - 09:55:44 GMT

The Australian dollar recovery against the US currency was undermined by weak domestic data. There was a 42,000 drop in September employment compared with expectations of a slight increase and this, coupled with renewed US dollar gains, pushed the Australian dollar down to 0  More...    More...


German election resolution brings upside for EUR GBP, proves to be short lived
CMC Markets Thursday October 13, 2005 - 06:26:57 GMT

October 13th - The Pound and Euro continue to trade in relatively tight ranges as there’s little to differentiate the fundamental states of the relative economies. Without doubt the move to a resolution from the disputed German election of earlier last month did provide the common currency with a modest degree of upside but since the peak around 0  More...    More...


Forex: Euro Note: When things look their worst, that's when they turn
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Thursday October 13, 2005 - 05:51:35 GMT

Market Recap

The US dollar continued its recent uptrend, hitting a 17-month high of 114.84 against the yen in midday trade as investors continued to anticipate a further spike in US interest rates. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to continue with its cycle of rate hikes after minutes from its last policy meeting showed rising concern over inflation  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 13th October 2005
FX-Strategy Thursday October 13, 2005 - 01:07:51 GMT

Price: 1.7491

Resistance: 1.7525 ... 1.7547 ... 1.7570 ... 1.7601
Support....: 1.7487 ... 1.7469 ... 1.7442 ... 1.7416

Bias: We now require 1.7442-69 to support to trigger recovery back above 1.7570 to 1.7631 and above

Bullish: Losses did dip 8 points below our 1  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Rally Stalls Ahead of Trade Data
FXCM Wednesday October 12, 2005 - 21:27:11 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-12-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

· Dollar Rally Stalls Ahead of Trade Data
· Rate Debate Continues in UK
· Yen Holds onto Losses on Falling Confidence

US Dollar

After three consecutive days of gains, we primarily saw profit taking in the dollar today ahead of what will probably be the two most exciting days in the currency market this week  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (12 October 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday October 12, 2005 - 14:36:28 GMT



The euro reversed course and moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2045 level and was supported around the $1.1950 level. Central banks were said to be buying the common currency below the $1  More...    More...



Caution sets in
FX Today Wednesday October 12, 2005 - 13:32:02 GMT

The important US trade data will be released on Thursday which will prompt market caution and Wall Street is unlikely to offer dollar support early today. In this environment, there will be the potential for a further reduction in long dollar positions and there is likely to be a reluctance to take the Euro back down through the 1  More...    More...


Yen Questions
Black Swan Capital Wednesday October 12, 2005 - 11:32:07 GMT

Key News
•Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Wednesday the BOJ was entering a critical period for deciding an end to its super-easy monetary policy, adding to speculation it could drop the framework in the first half of next year. (Reuters)
•Key reports due today (Global-View  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday October 12, 2005 - 10:37:25 GMT

Key Points
• USD rebounds impressively after last week’s failure.
• Short-term upside risk is clearly building – key levels and data releases are the hurdles this week.
• FOMC minutes confirm recent Fed rhetoric.
• BoE’s King speech implies averseness to rate cut, but does he speak for the MPC majority?
• Australian labour market data due  More...    More...



Where next for the dollar?
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday October 12, 2005 - 10:10:17 GMT

The Euro remained on the defensive against the dollar during European trading on Tuesday and the Euro weakened to below the 1.20 level even though the dollar was still finding some difficulties in generating momentum. The dollar retained a strong tone in New York and during Asian trading on Wednesday, strengthening to a peak close to 1  More...    More...


JPY still losing ground as US rate outlook remains positive; Japanese data in focus
CMC Markets Wednesday October 12, 2005 - 06:30:24 GMT

October 12th - A bullish interpretation of the FOMC meeting minutes has left traders in little doubt that the dollar is on course to extend recent gains as US interest rates look set to continue trending upwards well into 2006. This news, combined with a rally in the price of oil has left the Yen under further pressure on the downside and although 115 against the greenback hasn’t been reached just yet, unless we see an upturn in sentiment out of Japan it seems likely that it’s only going to be a matter of time until this happens  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 12th October 2005
FX-Strategy Wednesday October 12, 2005 - 00:48:35 GMT

Price: 1.2917

Resistance: 1.2954 ... 1.2988 ... 1.3005 ... 1.3042
Support....: 1.2877 ... 1.2848 ... 1.2822 ... 1.2794

Bias: Cautiously we look for 1.2920-54 to cap and for losses to resume

Bullish: Dollar gains were seen as expected, initially stalling at the 1  More...    More...



Forex: Fed Comments to Continue to Drive Dollar Rally
FXCM Tuesday October 11, 2005 - 21:19:43 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-11-05

- Fed Comments to Continue to Drive Dollar Rally
- Surprise Weakness in UK Trade Data Exacerbates Pound Sell-off
- Yen Traders Shrug Off Strong Data

US Dollar

It was another great day for the US dollar, which gained strength against all of the major currencies  More...    More...



Forex:Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday October 11, 2005 - 20:58:46 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD data fails to inspire
The NZD fell overnight following a quiet day during the local session yesterday. After opening around 0.6975 the NZD traded in a range of 0.6972-0.6986. The released survey of business confidence failed to inspire any notable buying, however the NZD did manage a rally to 0  More...    More...



What to look for from the Fed
FX Today Tuesday October 11, 2005 - 14:50:41 GMT

The Fed minutes from September will be important later today from 18.00 GMT. The Fed is likely to indicate further rate increases ahead and will warn over inflation, but much of this should be priced into the dollar with markets already discounting at least two further rate increases  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (11 October 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday October 11, 2005 - 13:47:19 GMT



The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the US$ 1.2010 level and was unable to get through offers around the $1.2070 level. Many traders remain unimpressed with the details that have been reported about the new “grand coalition” in Germany between incoming Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and outgoing Chancellor Schroeder’s Social Democratic Party  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 11-10-05 ..... 1153 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday October 11, 2005 - 12:11:39 GMT

Euro @ 1.2032/5.....Holding Short
----------------------------------
R: 1.2049-51 / 1.2064 / 1.2087
S: 1.2012 / 1.1966-51
The Euro dipped to 1.2012 and then bounced to 1.2049 during the day. And its slipping back again. Thus, the Resistance at 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday October 11, 2005 - 11:29:15 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD stabilises after German coalition disappointments. 1.1980 is key short-term support
on EUR-USD.
• Strong Japanese machinery orders boost equities, the JPY less so.
• UK trade deficit rises on Katrina.
• FOMC minutes feature today  More...    More...



Macro Fog
Black Swan Capital Tuesday October 11, 2005 - 11:21:20 GMT

Key News
•Japanese machinery orders rose more than expected in August as companies equipped new factories. (Bloomberg)
•South Korea's central bank has raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years. (BBC)
•Key reports due today (Global-View  More...    More...



Yen slips ahead of economic data from both sides of the Pacific.
CMC Markets Tuesday October 11, 2005 - 06:23:38 GMT

October 11th - Although traders are once again looking positively at the Japanese economy and expecting to see some positive signs of recovery, the Yen has continued to lose ground against the dollar in overnight European trade. Essentially the prospect of higher US interest rates seems set to be keeping the dollar in a positive light in the near term and despite the fact the BoJ’s latest monetary policy meeting starts today, there’s no real Justification for rates in Tokyo to be tightened just yet  More...    More...


Forex: The Germans finally have a leader - looking for the market to now Buy the Fact, after earlier selling the rumour.
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Tuesday October 11, 2005 - 05:37:46 GMT

Market Recap

The dollar was top-heavy against other major currencies owing to concerns over the credit risk at US corporations. Concerns over the credit risk in the US increased after the announcement by auto parts company Delphi Corp that it had asked for bankruptcy protection  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 11th October 2005
FX-Strategy Tuesday October 11, 2005 - 00:58:23 GMT

Price: 1.2847

Resistance: 1.2825 ... 1.2900 ... 1.2920 ... 1.2954
Support....: 1.2823 ... 1.2800 ... 1.2777 ... 1.2749

Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks - though suspect a move to 1.2954 for a peak

Bullish: The reversal higher from 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday October 11, 2005 - 00:03:24 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD: eyes on survey
The NZD staged a mild recovery during yesterday's local trading session. After opening the day around 0.6950 and moving to a low of 0.6947, USD sellers emerged helping the NZD to a local close of 0.6965. From there London saw continued buying of the NZD, with it briefly touching on 0  More...    More...



Forex: The Market Sets Up For a Dollar Positive Week
FXCM Monday October 10, 2005 - 20:58:37 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-10-05

· The Market Sets Up For a Dollar Positive Week
· German Political Stalemate Comes to An End
· Growing Carry Interest in USD/JPY Boosts Demand for the Pair

US Dollar

The dollar is firmer today against the four major currencies - Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and British Pound  More...    More...



Global central banks react differently to higher oil prices
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday October 10, 2005 - 14:48:14 GMT

Economic Research and Analysis: Economics Weekly
www.lloydstsbfinancialmarkets.com

Global central banks react differently to higher oil prices

Overview
Central banks responses to higher oil prices have been noticeable by their difference  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (10 October 2005)
GCI Financial Monday October 10, 2005 - 14:17:56 GMT



The euro shed some recent gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2060 level and was capped around the $1.2150 level. The common currency came off as traders debated news that Germany’s chancellorship has gone to Christian Democratic Union leader Angela Merkel  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 10-09-05 ..... 1154 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday October 10, 2005 - 12:32:28 GMT

FX Thoughts - Evening - 10/10/05
Evening Edition
1724 IST or 1154 GMT or 0754 EST


Euro @ 1.2106/09...Up to 1.23 or down to 1.20?
----------------------------------------------
R: 1.2156-59 / 1.2208-25
S: 1  More...    More...



Aussie lagging Gold?
Black Swan Capital Monday October 10, 2005 - 11:26:30 GMT

Key News
•France's industrial production rose in August at the fastest pace in almost a year. (Bloomberg)
•Key reports due today (Global-View.com):
JPN- Sports Day Holiday
06:00 GMT- GER- Aug Foreign Trade
08:30 GMT- UK- Sep PPI
CDA- Thanksgiving Holiday
US- Columbus Day Holiday

Quotable
“No country in modern history has moved so swiftly from worldwide adulation to dismissal or even contempt as did Japan, in a process that began more or less as the temple bells were tolling in the new year of 1990  More...    More...



Dollar prices in good news
INVESTICA Ltd Monday October 10, 2005 - 09:41:14 GMT

The dollar secured limited gains against the Euro ahead of the US employment report on Friday and also strengthened after the report. The US currency pushed to 1.21 against the Euro, but was unable to break through this level and drifted weaker towards 1.2140  More...    More...


Dollar finding further strength on inflationary fears although medium term outlook remains mixed.
CMC Markets Monday October 10, 2005 - 06:27:29 GMT

October 10th - The dollar continues to build on recent gains after further comments from the Fed at the end of last week suggested once again that there’s going to be no let up in the hawkish stance over interest rates. Oil prices are also retreating and although we’re still holding clear of the $60 level, again this starts to remove some of the pressures associated with the wider trade deficit - as a net importer of oil, the impact of falling crude prices certainly does favour the greenback  More...    More...


Forex: US Jobs surprise, but maybe it's just the beginning
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Monday October 10, 2005 - 05:34:59 GMT

Market Recap

The dollar advanced on Friday after a report showed the U.S. economy lost fewer jobs than expected in September, although the currency trimmed gains in the wake of security concerns in New York.
As result of Friday's jobs numbers, the Fed is expected to continue raising U  More...    More...



Forex COT Report analysis courtesy Cumino
Global-View Saturday October 8, 2005 - 14:54:28 GMT

COT Report analysis courtesy Cumino..

SAVE AND UNZIP    More...



FX Briefing 7 October 2005
BHF-Bank Saturday October 8, 2005 - 11:57:27 GMT

Highlights
* ECB hints out growing inflation risks but takes no action yet
* Rising inflation gives BoE less leeway for further interest rate cut

ECB takes tougher line

Under the impact of repeated hawkish comments by Fed representatives and some strong economic data, EUR-USD slipped initially to USD1  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (7 October 2005)
GCI Financial Friday October 7, 2005 - 13:33:00 GMT



The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2100 figure and was capped around the $1.2190 level. The common currency moved to intraday lows after the release of better-than-expected U  More...    More...



Dollar payroll boost
FX Today Friday October 7, 2005 - 13:16:51 GMT

The headline US employment drop was lower than expected with a 35,000 decline compared with expectations of a 150,000 drop while the unemployment rate was in line with expectations at 5.1%. This reduces the risk of aggressive dollar selling, but resistance is still likely to be tough close to 1  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 07-10-05 ..... 1214 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday October 7, 2005 - 12:32:14 GMT

Euro @ 1.2146/49....Cautiously Short
-----------------------------------
R: 1.2171 / 1.2208 / 1.2220-33
S: 1.2135-28 / 1.2093-81
The market seems to be waiting for the US NFP data. Immediate Support at 1.2135-28, which was a crucial resistance yesterday  More...    More...



British Pound vulnerable?
Black Swan Capital Friday October 7, 2005 - 11:33:33 GMT

Key News
•Key reports due today (Global-View.com):
05:00 GMT- JPN Aug Leading Business Index
05:45 GMT- CH- Sep Unemployment
10:00 GMT- GER- Aug Ind Prod
11:00 GMT/8:00 EST- CDA- Aug employment
12:30/8:30 EST GMT- US- Sept Employment:
Non-Farm Payrolls: vs  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday October 7, 2005 - 10:13:13 GMT

Key Points
• Significant bounce for EUR-USD, as ECB introduces rate hike risk into the picture.
• ECB comments mean that the market will be more responsive to Eurozone data.
• GBP now looks vulnerable against the EUR given diverging rate risks  More...    More...



Dollar looks for reassurance
INVESTICA Ltd Friday October 7, 2005 - 09:51:30 GMT

The dollar was unable to regain ground against the Euro in European trading on Thursday and weakened sharply in New York, undermined by fundamental and technical considerations. Losses accelerated after a break above 1.21 and pushed the dollar to a low of 1  More...    More...


Yen finds upside on back of falling oil price and dollar shift from favour
CMC Markets Friday October 7, 2005 - 06:07:40 GMT


October 7th - The Yen is holding onto recent gains after the quick move out of the dollar that has been driven by traders in recent days. Falling oil prices – spurred not least by a drop in demand in the US – are without doubt going to favour the JPY in the near term, although we remain some way from the key 110 level that was last seen in the early part of September  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 7th October 2005
FX-Strategy Friday October 7, 2005 - 00:39:36 GMT

Price: 1.2166

Resistance: 1.2213 ... 1.2235 ... 1.2274 ... 1.2303
Support....: 1.2146 ... 1.2117 ... 1.2077 ... 1.2036

Bias: While 1.2146 supports we look for gains to the 1.2235-75 area which should cap

Bullish: Yesterday's gains turned out to be far more aggressive than expected but do fit in with our weekly view  More...    More...



Forex: Sharp Sell off in the Dollar Ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls
FXCM Thursday October 6, 2005 - 21:21:47 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-06-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Sharp Sell off in the Dollar Ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls
· EUR/USD SSI Ratio Flips, Signaling More Gains Ahead
· Hawkish Comments from ECB Trichet Boosts Euro

US Dollar

Today was definitely an exciting day in the forex market as we saw breakout moves in all of the major currency pairs  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday October 6, 2005 - 20:34:21 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD grind higher ahead of US payrolls
While recent outperformance has been seen on the crosses with the NZD particularly strong against the yen and euro, a substantial rebound in the European single currency yesterday saw the NZD again appreciate against a weaker USD  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (6 October 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday October 6, 2005 - 14:57:09 GMT



The euro gained significant ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2145 level after trading as low as the $1.1970 level. Stops were hit above the $1.2040/ 1.2085/ 1.2125 levels during the move higher  More...    More...



Greed and fear
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday October 6, 2005 - 14:45:55 GMT

Yield plays have become more important over the past few weeks as funds have been tempted by high-yield assets. Interest rate trends will remain important and further US interest rate increases are certainly realistic on a short-term view. Higher interest rates will tend to attract further funds into the US dollar and other high-yield assets such as the Australian dollar  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 06-10-05 ..... 1211 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday October 6, 2005 - 12:21:22 GMT

Euro @ 1.2060/63....See 1.2120 if 1.2075 breaks
-----------------------------------------------
R: 1.2067-75 / 1.2109 / 1.2134
S: 1.2038 / 1.2011-07 / 1.1977
Has been static since the morning. Only above 1.2074 do we see 1.2120-30, which again would be selling levels  More...    More...



Oil and the Dollar
Black Swan Capital Thursday October 6, 2005 - 11:20:40 GMT

Key News
•Industrial output in the UK marked its sharpest fall in five months during August. (BBC)
•In terms of the substitution effect, China’s coal market is key. Ample statistics and anecdotes suggest that China’s coal supply is plentiful again and the forced increase in oil demand due to coal shortages last year is over  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday October 6, 2005 - 11:09:43 GMT

Key Points
• USD moves onto the defensive after disappointing ISM survey. 1.2100 key on EUR-USD.
• Global equity markets retreat.
• UK manufacturing output, German manufacturing orders weaker.
• UK MPC and ECB meetings feature today  More...    More...



Dollar retreats after run of gains; concerns over economy resurface
CMC Markets Thursday October 6, 2005 - 06:08:15 GMT

October 5th - Despite the fact that the market remains cautious of inflationary pressures that may force the Fed to tighten interest rates at a faster pace as we move through to the end of 2005, the dollar retreated yesterday against many currency pairs. Slowing demand for oil and lacklustre growth in the US services sector is suggesting that the economy may be in for a difficult time in the shorter term and as a result we’re seeing this retracement  More...    More...


Forex: We warned you yesterday about the wounded Euro.
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Thursday October 6, 2005 - 05:39:18 GMT

Market Recap

The US dollar was trading lower against the major currency pairs but the euro has broken resistance following weak US services and firmer eurozone data. The euro recovered overnight to 1.1984 usd from 1.1929 following the release of the US ISM services survey for September
The survey fell to 53  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 6th October 2005
FX-Strategy Thursday October 6, 2005 - 00:39:15 GMT

Price: 1.2009

Resistance: 1.2016 ... 1.2034 ... 1.2056 ... 1.2085
Support....: 1.1985 ... 1.1958 ... 1.1927 ... 1.1899

Bias: We look for a pullback to 1.1957 (max 1.1927) before higher again

Bullish: This morning's push to 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday October 6, 2005 - 00:24:49 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: Uridashi issue boosts NZD
The NZD strengthened during early trade yesterday with demand for the currency boosted by a NZD1.2bn Uridashi issue being brought to the market. This additional demand, plus a robust Q3 employment confidence index reading of 130  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Moderately Weaker on Sharp Contraction in Service Sector Growth
FXCM Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 20:35:47 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-05-05

· Dollar Moderately Weaker on Sharp Contraction in Service Sector Growth
· Stronger Data Helps to Boost Euro
· Bank of England Expected to Leave Interest Rates Unchanged


US Dollar

The dollar has given up some of its gains today as the Euro crawls its way back from the 1  More...    More...



Dollar hurt by ISM index
FX Today Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 14:55:46 GMT

The US ISM report was considerably weaker than expected with a drop to 53.3 in September from 65.0 in August. Orders dropped sharply, but the price indicators rose strongly to a record high. The report will unsettle market confidence in the dollar slightly  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (5 October 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 13:57:55 GMT



The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1965 level and was supported around the $1.1915 level. Continued hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have capped the common currency’s upside in recent sessions  More...    More...



GVI Monthly Forex Survey Results
Global-View Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 12:54:08 GMT

In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar turned more bullish against the euro. The three month ahead forecast for EURUSD was a mean 1.1946 from 1.2548 a month earlier  More...    More...


GVI Montly Survey courtesy Cumino:
Global-View Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 12:41:09 GMT

GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).

EUR USD 3 months: 1st day close 1  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening -05-10-05 ..... 1154 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 12:12:43 GMT

Euro @ 1.1948/51....Ranged 'tween 1.1919-2015
---------------------------------------------
R: 1.1969 / 1.1992 / 1.2008-15
S: 1.1930-19 / 1.1902
Ranged between 1.1919 and 1.1969 at the moment. Trend Resistance on the 4-hour at 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 12:02:52 GMT

Key Points
• USD shies away from highs but looks solid at the moment.
• Fed officials again put hawkish slant on comments.
• European service sector PMIs generally better than expected.
• Non-manufacturing US ISM features today  More...    More...



Dollar Stuff
Black Swan Capital Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 11:34:48 GMT

Key News
•European service industries such as banks and airlines grew at the fastest pace in 14 months in September. (Bloomberg)
•Key reports due today (Global-View.com):
14:00 GMT/10:00 EST- US- Sep Svc ISM PMI: vs. 65.0 in Aug, see 59  More...    More...



Dollar correction?
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 09:52:21 GMT

The Euro/dollar rate was trapped within narrow ranges on Tuesday with neither currency able to break significant resistance points. The dollar was unable to break Euro support close to 1.19 and weakened back to 1.1960 in early Europe on Wednesday with a reluctance to take on aggressive positions  More...    More...


Dollar under pressure despite resurgence in inflation concerns
CMC Markets Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 06:39:45 GMT

October 5th - Although there are renewed concerns over the fact that inflationary pressures stand to push the dollar higher still across the board, there’s been something of a sell-off initiated in recent trade. The greenback has failed to breach some key technical levels and dealers are reacting to this news by taking some quick profits and leaving the USD to slip back  More...    More...


Forex: Beware, the wounded Euro!!!
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 05:27:59 GMT

Market Recap

The dollar slid against most rival currencies as market participants took profits after the US currency failed to sustain strong gains against both the yen and the euro despite comments from Federal Reserve officials supporting further increase in US interest rates to combat inflation  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 5th October 2005
FX-Strategy Wednesday October 5, 2005 - 00:22:56 GMT

Price: 114.34

Resistance: 114.42 ... 114.59 ... 114.85 ... 115.20
Support....: 113.90 ... 113.67 ... 113.29 ... 112.85

Bias: Waiting for breaks of 114.59 or 113.90 to trigger a 60-70 point move

Bullish: Still no break of 114  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Trapped in Range Trading Mode
FXCM Tuesday October 4, 2005 - 20:58:26 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-04-05

· Dollar Trapped in Range Trading Mode
· Pound Shrugs Off Softer Construction PMI Survey
· BoJ Officials Suggest Possible Rate Hikes in 2006

US Dollar
With some traders out on holiday, market activity has been extremely quiet today  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (4 October 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday October 4, 2005 - 17:34:30 GMT



The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1950 level and briefly traded just below the $1.1900 figure. This represents the first time the common currency has traded with a $1  More...    More...



Fx Thoughts for the day - Evening - 04-10-05 - 1158 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday October 4, 2005 - 12:15:49 GMT

Euro @ 1.1932/5.....Holding Short
----------------------------------
R: 1.1939-43 / 1.1969 / 1.1997-07
S: 1.1902-1.1894 / 1.1866/ 1.1824
Market has been static since yesterday. There's a chance it may remain static through the rest of today as well  More...    More...



Euro due for bounce or capitulaiton?
Black Swan Capital Tuesday October 4, 2005 - 11:34:31 GMT

Quotable

“The market is governed by fundamental economic forces that are affected by the current state of the political system, which in turn is constantly changed by politicians.”

Victor Sperandeo

FX Trading

“With rising oil prices and new political uncertainties in Germany and Italy, we thought business confidence was at risk  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday October 4, 2005 - 10:51:26 GMT

Key Points
• USD remains strong, but key levels need to be breached to unlock further significant rally.
• Yesterday’s ISM number is significant.
• US factory orders and Fed speakers due today.

Market Outlook
A crucial time for the USD over the coming week as it flirts with key levels and the outcome will dictate whether the majors revert to recent ranges or the USD embarks on another significant run higher  More...    More...



Pound remains under pressure as market awaits UK monetary policy update
CMC Markets Tuesday October 4, 2005 - 08:56:29 GMT

October 4th - Cable is now set for a battle against the 1.7500 psychological level as recent support levels for GBP USD have continued to fall. There’s little prospect that we’re going to see any real adjustment in UK monetary policy in the short term and as a result, look for the pound to remain exposed on the downside  More...    More...


Forex: Gold and the USD rallying. Is nothing sacred anymore?
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Tuesday October 4, 2005 - 05:05:29 GMT

Market Recap

The US dollar eased against the yen in afternoon trade here, after climbing to 16-month highs against the Japanese currency overnight, hit by profit-taking and a surge in the Nikkei 225 stock index. The dollar hit a high of 114  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 4th October 2005
FX-Strategy Tuesday October 4, 2005 - 00:55:00 GMT

Price: 114.26

Resistance: 113.42 ... 114.59 ... 114.42 ... 115.20
Support....: 113.90 ... 113.67 ... 113.29 ... 112.85

Bias: We look for a cap around the 114.35-59 area and for a pullback to 113.29

Bullish: Price broke above 114  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Surges Ahead as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Rise
FXCM Monday October 3, 2005 - 20:46:46 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-03-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Dollar Surges Ahead as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Rise
· Euro Continues to Fall Despite Possible Resolution to German Political Stalemate
· Tankan Misses Expectations, Contributing to Slide in Japanese Yen

US Dollar

The dollar’s unstoppable rally continued today, blasting past 1  More...    More...



Forex: Inflation Genie Out Of Bottle
Foreign Exchange Analytics Monday October 3, 2005 - 18:04:36 GMT

Inflation was not my call for 2005. But then again neither were two majorahurricanes hitting the oil-rich US Gulf states, China on a shopping spree for oil reserves and potentially a significant slowdown in the rate of productivity growth. Perhaps the only thing checking inflation outside of energy prices has been corporate profits  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (3 October 2005)
GCI Financial Monday October 3, 2005 - 14:47:24 GMT



The euro extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1920 level after encountering resistance around the $1.2030 level in Australasian dealing. The common currency is thought to have partially slid on news that Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party picked up some additional parliamentary seats yesterday over Chancellor Schroeder’s Social Democratic Party  More...    More...



Robust US data
FX Today Monday October 3, 2005 - 14:23:47 GMT

The US ISM manufacturing index was stronger than expected at 59.4 in September from 53.6 in August with a big increase in the prices component. The strength will reinforce expectations over a tighter Fed policy and will support the US currency, although it will be difficult to secure additional buying interest as longer-term selling is liable to increase  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening ....03-10-05 ....1200 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday October 3, 2005 - 12:47:35 GMT

Euro @ 1.1929/32....Support at 1.1915?
----------------------------------------------
R: 1.1966 / 1.2000 / 1.2015-38
S: 1.1925-06 / 1.1894 / 1.1873-63
The Euro has not fallen below 1.1915 despite two attempts since the morning  More...    More...



Inflation exposing Asia?
Black Swan Capital Monday October 3, 2005 - 10:52:08 GMT

Quotable

“Selective recall or not, Alan Greenspan was the pied piper of the New Paradigm and the equity bubble it spawned. And up until recently, he took a similar tack with respect to the property bubble -- constantly maintaining that excesses in certain local real estate markets could not morph into a nationwide problem  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Monday October 3, 2005 - 10:49:13 GMT

Key Points
• Tankan disappointment hits JPY and boosts USD in general.
• USD eyeing key levels against majors.
• ISM data features today.

Market Outlook
The USD strengthened early in the Asian session, with the weaker than expected Tankan/strong USD-JPY scenario the main driving factor for most crosses – stops being triggered in many cases e  More...    More...



Is UK economic recovery underway?
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday October 3, 2005 - 10:38:49 GMT

Economics Weekly: Economic Research and Analysis - Is UK economic recovery underway?

Will gdp growth get weaker
Economic data from the UK this week have been almost universally interpreted as being negative for growth prospects in the coming year  More...    More...



Yield plays dominate
INVESTICA Ltd Monday October 3, 2005 - 10:00:07 GMT

The dollar made a fresh attack on Euro support in Asian trading on Monday and pushed to a high of 1.1925 on stop-loss dollar buying before a retreat to 1.1960.

The US data was mixed on Friday and there will be further conflicting data in the short term  More...    More...



Tankan extends Yen sell-off as greenback remains in favour…
CMC Markets Monday October 3, 2005 - 07:18:18 GMT

October 3rd - A lower than expected increase in the Tankan survey indicating business confidence in Japan has left the Yen under further pressure as we start the next trading quarter. With traders already accepting the fact that interest rate differentials across the Pacific are set to widen as we approach the year end, the fact that economic data coming out of the BoJ remains lacklustre suggests that there will be little resistance to further devaluation of the JPY in the medium term  More...    More...


Forex: The USD starts the new week on the front foot
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Monday October 3, 2005 - 06:46:12 GMT

Market Review

The dollar rallied to a 16-month high against the yen on Monday, boosted by expectations for more Federal Reserve interest-rate rises and a disappointing tankan survey of corporate sentiment in Japan.
Riding a wave of broad support, the dollar also rose to a three-month peak against the euro and two-month highs versus sterling and the Swiss franc  More...    More...



FX Briefing 30 September 2005
BHF-Bank Sunday October 2, 2005 - 10:25:17 GMT

Highlights
• Fed wants to safeguard price stability, signals continuation of interest rate hikes
• Foreigners become net sellers of Japanese securities
• ECB will increase vigilance further – interest rate hikes are coming closer

Dollar follows Fed’s interest rate policy signals
The dollar remained strong, but it did not gain much more ground  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 3rd October 2005
FX-Strategy Sunday October 2, 2005 - 08:51:47 GMT

Price: 113.51

Resistance: 113.67 ... 114.15 ... 114.42 ... 114.59
Support....: 113.33 ... 113.00 ... 112.65 ... 112.22

Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks

Bullish: We did note a minimum target of 113  More...    More...



Commitment of Traders Report Analysis
Global-View Saturday October 1, 2005 - 15:42:12 GMT

COT Analysis courtesy Cumino...
CLICK AND UNZIP    More...



Forex: Mixed Eurozone Data Leaves Euro Unchanged
FXCM Friday September 30, 2005 - 20:39:06 GMT

DailyFX Forex Fundamentals 09-30-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief STrategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Stronger Data Fails to Clarify the Uncertainty Around the Dollar
· Mixed Eurozone Data Leaves Euro Unchanged
· Increased Consumer Spending in Japan Boosts Yen

US Dollar
There was more whipsaw price action in the dollar today, but no new direction  More...    More...



Positioning to dominate
FX Today Friday September 30, 2005 - 14:32:09 GMT

The US data was mixed with a firm bias as the Chicago PMI index recovered strongly to 60.5 in September, although there was a drop in the employment index to below 50.0 which will undermine confidence to some extent. For the rest of today, position adjustment is likely to be the dominant feature and this will make it more difficult for the dollar to rally with a slightly weaker bias, but the Euro will struggle to push beyond 1  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (30 September 2005)
GCI Financial Friday September 30, 2005 - 14:29:13 GMT



The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2070 level and was supported just below the $1.2000 figure. The common currency has been unable to get above the $1.2080 level this week and has traded as low as the $1  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 30-09-05 ..... 1231 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday September 30, 2005 - 12:37:44 GMT

Euro @ 1.2042/45...Indecisive
-------------------------------------

R: 1.2072-88 / 1.2105-25
S: 1.2013-1.2000 / 1.1978-53
The current bounce seen from 1.2000 supports, finds crucial resistance at 1.2088. For now only a rise above 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday September 30, 2005 - 10:50:50 GMT

Key Points
• More hawkish noises from the Fed
- EUR-USD well within recent ranges.
• JPY data fails to inspire.
• Eurozone business sentiment stronger than expected.
• US core PCE prices, Michigan sentiment and Chicago PMI feature today  More...    More...



Euro banks on support
INVESTICA Ltd Friday September 30, 2005 - 09:50:00 GMT

The Euro was unable to push above the 1.2075 level against the dollar during Thursday and favourable US data pushed the Euro down to near 1.20, but the US currency again hit selling pressure close to this level and settled just weaker than 1.20. The dollar was little changed in early Europe on Friday before making another challenge on 1  More...    More...


Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Friday September 30, 2005 - 09:21:51 GMT


Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil barely moved yesterday and closed around $66.50. Meanwhile, DJIA index closed around 10.550.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

Yesterday’s rally was well short-lived and the pair quickly tested back the lower line of the downtrend channel, hitting a low of 1  More...    More...



Dollar edges higher once more as traders focus on prospect of further rate hikes
CMC Markets Friday September 30, 2005 - 08:00:46 GMT

September 30th - Traders remain squarely committed to the dollar as we approach the mid-point of the financial year. Messages keep coming out of the Fed that underline the fact there’s going to be a need for monetary policy to remain quite aggressive well into 2006 as inflationary pressures continue to apply  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 30th September 2005
FX-Strategy Friday September 30, 2005 - 00:43:37 GMT

Price: 1.7590

Resistance: 1.7626 ... 1.7645 ... 1.7672 ... 1.7717
Support....: 1.7563 ... 1.7532 ... 1.7512 ... 1.7499

Bias: We are bearish to 1.7512-32 initially and later to 1.7450-60

Bullish: The failure to see much of a recovery does suggest we should hold back from a bullish stance for most of the day  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday September 29, 2005 - 21:37:07 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: Strong headline GDP data boosts NZD
From opening levels at 0.6865 yesterday, the NZD rallied strongly following the release of Q2 GDP. While revisions to previous quarters brought the annualised rate in at 3.1%, below market expectations of 3  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (29 September 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday September 29, 2005 - 15:22:34 GMT



The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2010 level and was capped around the $1.2075 level. A pick-up in NYMEX crude futures for November delivery to above the $66 handle precipitated a round of dollar-selling in Australasian and early European dealing  More...    More...



Dollar attacks again
FX Today Thursday September 29, 2005 - 13:20:05 GMT

The headline US GDP report was in line with expectations at 3.3% while the core price deflator was revised up slightly to 1.7% from 1.6%. Jobless claims were lower than expected at 356,000 as Katrina claims tailed off. The data does not add anything significant, but has provided an excuse for a fresh test of Euro support close to 1  More...    More...


Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Thursday September 29, 2005 - 11:08:29 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil gained ground during yesterday’s session in this current yo-yo trading range, to close around $66.50. Meanwhile, DJIA index closed around 10.470.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

It looks as there is a real buying pressure coming from the sub-1  More...    More...



Risk tolerance key for Swiss franc
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday September 29, 2005 - 10:08:55 GMT

The US dollar strengthened to a high of 1.2985 against the Swiss currency on Wednesday, but retreated to 1.2920 in late New York. The franc retained small gains against the Euro and the US currency weakened further to 1.2890 in early Europe on Thursday before a recovery above 1  More...    More...


Forex: Slowly, but surely, the mood is turning
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Thursday September 29, 2005 - 08:34:10 GMT

Market Review

Overnight, the US Durable Good Orders came out well above expectations, however the market reacted with minimum fuss.
The euro was slightly firmer against the dollar, largely as a result of continued speculative activity driven by talk that central banks of various countries are buying up the the European unit  More...    More...



Dollar gains short lived as oil prices remain volatile, Japanese economic data turns positive
CMC Markets Thursday September 29, 2005 - 07:50:35 GMT

September 29th - Mixed inventory data lead to a quick rally in oil prices yesterday and although we’ve since seen something of a reversion with crude trading back around the $66 mark overnight, this spike has weighed on the dollar, eroding much of the currency’s recent gains  More...    More...


Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday September 29, 2005 - 00:41:12 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: Failure to break 0.6780 sees NZD consolidate
Having failed to break lower through technical support levels at0.6780, during the overnight session, the NZD posted a moderate recovery during the local session, yesterday. After an early low of 0  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 29th September 2005
FX-Strategy Thursday September 29, 2005 - 00:34:36 GMT

Price: 1.7680

Resistance: 1.7686 ... 1.7717 ... 1.7735 ... 1.7750
Support....: 1.7635 ... 1.7603 ... 1.7580 ... 1.7540

Bias: A little mixed although while 1.7717-30 caps there remains risk of a drop to 1.7520-30

Bullish: Additional losses to 1  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Unchanged as Record High Natural Gas Prices Offset Strong Durable Goods Orders
FXCM Wednesday September 28, 2005 - 20:41:04 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-28-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

- Dollar Unchanged as Record High Natural Gas Prices Offset Strong Durable Goods Orders
- Asian Central Bank Demand Said to be Supporting Euro
- Rebound in Small Business Confidence Boosts Yen

US Dollar

The dollar is slightly weaker against the majors, but overall the daily change is fairly nominal  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (28 September 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday September 28, 2005 - 13:42:06 GMT



The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2040 level and was supported around the $1.2005 level. The common currency yesterday traded at levels not seen since 27 July as other Federal Reserve officials joined the chorus of recent policymakers who have hawkishly talked up interest rates  More...    More...



Strong durables data
FX Today Wednesday September 28, 2005 - 13:20:33 GMT

The US durable goods orders were stronger than expected with a 3.3% increase for August after a 5.3% drop in July and the underlying orders were firm which will reinforce optimism over the economy. The dollar is stuck just weaker than 1.20 against the Euro and is struggling to regain momentum  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 27-09-05 ..... 1225 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday September 28, 2005 - 12:31:12 GMT



Euro @ 1.2034/37...Ranged between 1.1978-1.2045
------------------------------------------------------------

R: 1.2040-45 / 1.2070 / 1.2095-1.2108
S: 1.2005 / 1.1978 / 1.1932
The Euro is finding the resistance at 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday September 28, 2005 - 10:46:47 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD steady above 1.2000 – waiting for durable orders.
• BoJ hawk broaches subject of monetary tightening.
• UK GDP disappoints with more back-revisions.
• UK CBI retail survey, Swiss KoF indicator, US
durables feature today  More...    More...



Greenspan cautious
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday September 28, 2005 - 09:57:06 GMT

The dollar pushed to highs near 1.1975 after a break down below 1.20, but was still unable to make a convincing break of the 1.20 level and the US currency retreated to 1.2030 in early Europe on Wednesday.

The US economic data was weaker than expected with consumer confidence falling sharply to 86  More...    More...



Yen continues to fall in light of high oil and prospect of further US rate hikes
CMC Markets Wednesday September 28, 2005 - 08:02:45 GMT

September 28th - The Yen continues its downward slide against the dollar despite hopes that economic reform as a result of PM Koizumi’s re-election will finally result in a degree of growth for the country’s struggling economy. However, high oil prices will naturally continue to limit expansion given the country is a net importer of the commodity and interest rate differentials also look set to widen in the near term  More...    More...


Forex: Sideways movement continues
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Wednesday September 28, 2005 - 05:55:53 GMT

Market Review

The US dollar edged lower against major currencies, with the unit easing against the yen on active selling from Japanese exporters, although the greenback's broadly firm tone remains intact given expectations for continued interest rate hikes in the US  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 28th September 2005
FX-Strategy Wednesday September 28, 2005 - 01:20:47 GMT

Price: 1.2933

Resistance: 1.2950 ... 1.2977 ... 1.2995 ... 1.3024
Support....: 1.2918 ... 1.2903 ... 1.2879 ... 1.2851

Bias: The 1.2995-1.3024 resistance is crucial to the correction scenario - any breach would imply 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday September 27, 2005 - 22:15:49 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD plunges as trade deficit hits NZ$1bn
The NZD softened further during yesterday's local session. The release of NZ's largest ever monthly trade deficit at NZ$1.1bn, follows very poor current account data last week and was met immediately with aggressive NZD selling  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Shrugs off Weaker Confidence and Home Sales Data
FXCM Tuesday September 27, 2005 - 21:22:54 GMT

Daily Forex Report

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

· Dollar Shrugs off Weaker Confidence and Home Sales Data
· German IFO Somewhat Distorting
· Data Suggests a Glimmer of Hope in the UK

US Dollar

Even in the face of weaker economic data, the US dollar remains unfazed  More...    More...



Dollar survives confidence test
FX Today Tuesday September 27, 2005 - 15:08:59 GMT

The US data was weaker than expected with consumer confidence weakening to 86.6 in September from a revised 105.5 in August while new home sale also fell slightly. The dollar has proved resilient and is still close to the 1.20 level against the Euro. The markets will also want to make further attacks on 1  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (27 September 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday September 27, 2005 - 13:51:37 GMT



The euro extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1990 level and was capped around the $1.2080 level. Today’s intraday low represents the common currency’s weakest print since 27 July  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 27-09-05 ..... 1248 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday September 27, 2005 - 12:57:51 GMT

Euro @ 1.2005/08....Watching support at 1.1991
-------------------------------------------------------

R: 1.2042-44 / 1.2081-97 / 1.2125
S: 1.2004-1.1991 / 1.19971-53
The Euro has tested the resistances at 1.2048-54 and has failed to sustain above these levels  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday September 27, 2005 - 11:14:49 GMT

Key Points
• USD upside bias checked a little by strong IFO number.
• NZD hit by higher than expected trade deficit.
• GBP continues to underperform.
• US consumer confidence and Fed speakers feature today.

Market Outlook
The USD was firm through the Asian session, aided by a fairly hawkish message from the Fed’s Hoenig, although a stronger than expected German IFO provided support for EUR-USD in Europe  More...    More...



Rate expectations crucial
INVESTICA Ltd Tuesday September 27, 2005 - 10:11:14 GMT

Sterling recovered from lows near 1.77 on Monday, but was unable to push above 1.78 and the UK currency weakened back to fresh monthly lows near 1.7650 in early Europe on Tuesday. The UK currency remained stuck close to 0.68 against the Euro.

Interest rate expectations will remain important in the short term with markets expecting further US interest rate increases over the remainder of 2005  More...    More...



Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Tuesday September 27, 2005 - 09:48:35 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil gained some ground during yesterday’s session to close around $65.50. Meanwhile, DJIA index closed around 10.440.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

Pair is at new lows every passing day, confirming its bearish momentum  More...    More...



Pound under pressure as economy slows; Euro struggling to find upside.
CMC Markets Tuesday September 27, 2005 - 08:34:30 GMT


September 27th - Slowing growth forecasts for the UK continue to take their toll on cable with the GBP USD rate continuing to retreat well below the 1.80 level. There’s going to be some concern mounting as to how the yield curve for Sterling is looking going forward and other than inflationary pressures – which continue to centre around the price of oil – there’s not too much that seems to be pushing the UK economy forward right now  More...    More...



Forex: The USD remains the market's darling
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Tuesday September 27, 2005 - 07:14:03 GMT

Market Review

The US dollar was higher in early afternoon trade, supported by overnight comments from US Federal Reserve policymakers who indicated that the Fed has room to increase its key rates further given emerging inflation worries. The remarks, which suggested that the Fed was likely to continue with its cycle of modest rate hikes, were made by Federal Open Market Committee voting members Susan Bies and Michael Moskow  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday September 27, 2005 - 01:01:42 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD pressured after Moskow comments
After establishing an intra-day low of 0.6842 early, the NZD recovered slightly over the course of yesterday's domestic session. Despite this modest improvement, the currency was capped at 0.6881, as USD demand again emerged in the offshore trading  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 27th September 2005
FX-Strategy Tuesday September 27, 2005 - 00:32:45 GMT

Price: 1.2892

Resistance: 1.2912 ... 1.2927 ... 1.2960 ... 1.2990
Support....: 1.2867 ... 1.2842 ... 1.2823 ... 1.2798

Bias: Cautiously, while 1.2842-67 supports there is still a risk of a move to the 1.2990 area

Bullish: Price reached mid-way between our minimum 1  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Sells off as Oil Prices Rebound and Greenspan Warns About Housing Market
FXCM Monday September 26, 2005 - 21:52:19 GMT

DailyFX Report 09-26-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Dollar Sells off as Oil Prices Rebound and Greenspan Warns About Housing Market
· Euro Rallies German Inflation Highest in 4 Years
· Pound Rebounds from Seven Week Low

US Dollar

With only existing home sales on the US economic calendar today, traders turned their focus to Fed speeches  More...    More...



Euro faces further challenges
FX Today Monday September 26, 2005 - 14:39:53 GMT

The US existing home sales data was stronger than expected at 7.29mn, but the impact should be limited for now and the Euro could be in a position to secure some very short-term relief. The markets are unlikely to be satisfied without a more sustained attack on the 1  More...    More...


Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Monday September 26, 2005 - 14:09:02 GMT

Key Points
• USD maintains support as Rita fails to inflict maximum damage.
• Further USD strength likely this week as long as weak economic data can be avoided.
• Oil prices will also be key - $63 is major trigger support for light crude  More...    More...



Germany and Japan: similar economies, different election results
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday September 26, 2005 - 14:07:34 GMT

Economics Weekly: Economic Research and Analysis: Germany and Japan: similar economies, different election results

The world’s second and third largest economies, Japan and Germany, respectively, have shown virtually stagnant growth for almost a decade  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (26 September 2005)
GCI Financial Monday September 26, 2005 - 14:07:00 GMT



The euro extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2010 level and was capped around the $1.2065 level. The common currency gapped lower around fifteen pips at the Australasian open and traded at levels not seen since 27 July  More...    More...



Forex: Rita develops into a fizzer, sending Gold, Crude, and the Euro tumbling
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Monday September 26, 2005 - 06:00:03 GMT

Market Review

The USD firmness continued earlier today, pushing the EUR/USD down to 1.2010, before the Asian session came in and took profit in USD longs. The USD remains slightly bid going into the European session. Gold has traded down to its lowest level in a week (US$460), as concerns over Hurricane Rita subside  More...    More...



Forex: Trendways Weekly Analysis
Trendways Sunday September 25, 2005 - 11:32:42 GMT

Sunday 13:50 GMT

With only one week left to month end, there is now a high probability for my mid summer scenario, namely that the market would most probably stay in consolidation at least until the end of the third quarter, to materialise  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 26th September 2005
FX-Strategy Sunday September 25, 2005 - 07:36:23 GMT

Price: 1.2917

Resistance: 1.2947 ... 1.2970 ... 1.2990 ... 1.3024
Support....: 1.2866 ... 1.2843 ... 1.2808 ... 1.2775

Bias: Slightly mixed on levels but look for 1.2866 to support and for gains to 1.2770-90

Bullish: Price remained above 1  More...    More...



COT Analysis courtesy Cumino
Global-View Saturday September 24, 2005 - 16:30:04 GMT

COT Analysis courtesy Cumino



SAVE AND UNZIP    More...



Rita Downgraded, China Revalues against Yen and Euro – All Dollar Positive
FXCM Friday September 23, 2005 - 21:02:21 GMT

DailyFX Fundamental 09-23-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Rita Downgraded, China Revalues against Yen and Euro – All Dollar Positive
· Expect Changes to G7 Statement this Evening
· Fed Speeches Dominate US Calendar in the Beginning of Next Week

US Dollar
The dollar is stronger yet again as we see another downgrade for Hurricane Rita  More...    More...



FX Briefing 23 September 2005
BHF-Bank Friday September 23, 2005 - 18:18:30 GMT

Highlights
• Fed sticks to its monetary course
• Hurricane Rita hits Texan Gulf coast
• ECB council member Garganas concerned about growing danger of inflation
• China widens trading band for non-dollar currencies

Dollar remains unfazed in turbulent times
Although times are turbulent, EUR-USD has only changed slightly  More...    More...



Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Friday September 23, 2005 - 15:01:31 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil gained lost ground to $65, while DJIA index recovered a bit, closing around 10.430.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

Pair moved very well technically and it is currently well below 1  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (23 September 2005)
GCI Financial Friday September 23, 2005 - 14:01:22 GMT



The euro extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2070 level and failed to get above the $1.2170 level. The common currency spiked to intraday highs after China announced it is widening the permitted trading band for non-dollar trading pairs involving the yuan  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 23-09-05 ..... 1230 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday September 23, 2005 - 12:43:37 GMT


Euro @ 1.2115/18...Holding short
----------------------------------
Holding:
Euro 20K short at 1.2126, SL 1.2166, TP open.


$-Yen @ 111.42/48...Holding Long
----------------------------------

Holding:
$ 25K long at 111  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday September 23, 2005 - 12:33:12 GMT

Key Points
• USD move yesterday suggests more strength next week if Rita damage is contained.
• Hurricane uncertainty will not be resolved until the weekend.
• GBP still looking vulnerable – ‘outside day’ yesterday for USD-CAD.
• China makes technical adjustment to FX system  More...    More...



Yen jump on yuan technical changes
INVESTICA Ltd Friday September 23, 2005 - 10:18:19 GMT

The yen weakened to near 111.7 against the US currency during Thursday, but the yen managed to strengthen back through 136.0 against the Euro and strengthened further in Europe on Friday as the Chinese central bank adjusted the yuan regime. The yen will find it difficult to secure further near-term support from the Chinese move  More...    More...


Rita drops to category 4 cheering dollar traders in absence of any other news
CMC Markets Friday September 23, 2005 - 08:14:24 GMT

September 23rd - With little on the economic calendar to provide traders with direction, attention continues to centre on hurricane Rita although at least in overnight trade the overall trend has been somewhat more positive – at least for those still holding long dollar positions  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 23rd September 2005
FX-Strategy Friday September 23, 2005 - 00:22:59 GMT

Price: 1.2154

Resistance: 1.2182 ... 1.2201 ... 1.2222 ... 1.2268
Support....: 1.2115 ... 1.2104 ... 1.2065 ... 1.2046

Bias: While 1.2180-85 caps we remain bearish for 1.2046-65 at least and possibly 1.2008

Bullish: Price held below resistance at 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday September 22, 2005 - 21:28:33 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD sold as sentiment wanes
NZD/USD weakened on Thursday as recent signs of an economic slowdown take its toll on the currency. NZ economic data has been less than flattering this week and, despite the markets concerns about Hurricane Rita in the US, the NZD traded a 22-day low  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Rallies on Carry Interest and Corporate Repatriation
FXCM Thursday September 22, 2005 - 21:09:36 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-22-05

· Dollar Rallies on Carry Interest and Corporate Repatriation
· First Germany, Now Italy – Italian Political Crisis Weighs on Euro
· Japanese Yen Under Water Following Smaller Trade Surplus

US Dollar

The mighty dollar continues to soar despite Hurricane Rita blowing closer and closer to the coastal parts of Texas as well as weaker economic data  More...    More...



Running on empty - US growth under threat
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday September 22, 2005 - 14:56:55 GMT

External shocks such as hurricanes Katrina and Rita would not normally disrupt longer-term economic trends. There are, however, likely to be major concerns over spending levels this time, especially with the US consumer already over-stretched. The US is also running substantial current account and budget deficits and there will be upward pressures on both deficits over the next few months  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (22 September 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday September 22, 2005 - 14:26:51 GMT



The euro weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2185 level after testing offers around the $1.2270 level. Stops were reached above the $1.2245 level, representing the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 22-09-05 ..... 1221 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday September 22, 2005 - 12:28:11 GMT

Euro @ 1.2220/5....Range 1.2316-2100
---------------------------------------
R: 1.2240 / 1.2273-84 / 1.2316
S: 1.2184-78 / 1.2134 / 1.2100
The Euro has been trading indecisively between 1.2184-2238 since the morning within a wider range of 1  More...    More...



Stocks leading the dollar...
Black Swan Capital Thursday September 22, 2005 - 11:22:29 GMT

Key News
•Key reports due today (Global-View):
23:50 GMT- JPN- July Tertiary Activity Index
23:50 GMT- EU- July Ind Ord
06:15 GMT- CH- Aug Trade
10:00 GMT- UK- Sep CBI Ind Trends
11:00 GMT- CDA- Aug CPI
12:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
14:00 GMT- US- Aug Leading Indicators: vs  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday September 22, 2005 - 10:55:48 GMT

Key Points
• USD remains troubled by Rita uncertainty.
• JPY continues to underperform, but still favoured.
• Canadian CPI, Dodge speech and Swedish GDP feature today.

Market Outlook
EUR-USD had a fairly choppy Asian session, including a brief stop-loss driven spike to 1  More...    More...



Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Thursday September 22, 2005 - 10:12:53 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil gained more ground to move close to the $68 level, amidst fears for Rita, while DJIA index dipped down further, closing around 10.380.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

As written yesterday, 1  More...    More...



US confidence test
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday September 22, 2005 - 10:05:23 GMT

The dollar dipped to a low of 1.2265 against the Euro in Asian trading on Thursday before recovering back to 1.2210 in Europe.

There have been increasing fears over hurricane Rita during the past 24 hours and these fears are liable to increase further in the short term, especially as the storm was upgraded to a category 5 hurricane in New York  More...    More...



Quiet economic calendar leaves currencies lacking direction, Rita set to dominate
CMC Markets Thursday September 22, 2005 - 08:28:23 GMT

September 22nd - The dollar appears poised to push higher – and interest rate differentials certainly seem to validate this more bullish stance – although in the shorter term, the potential impact of hurricane Rita does seem to be limiting any gains. Cable has slipped marginally overnight although continues to sit just above the key support level of 1  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 22nd September 2005
FX-Strategy Thursday September 22, 2005 - 01:24:42 GMT

Price: 1.2260

Resistance: 1.2278 ... 1.2309 ... 1.2344 ... 1.2401
Support....: 1.2235 ... 1.2190 ... 1.2168 ... 1.2132

Bias: We look for 1.2278-1.2309 to cap and for renewed losses

Bullish: The break of the 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday September 22, 2005 - 00:37:28 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: Poor fundamentals cast aside …for now
The NZ economy continues to pump out weak numbers and the emerging pattern indicates there is an imminent economic slowdown. On Wednesday the Q2 Balance of Payments was released, the current account deficit is a worrying 8% of GDP, significantly worse than expectations  More...    More...



EUR/USD Traders Wonder Which is Worse - the Hurricane in the US or the Political Crisis in Germany
FXCM Wednesday September 21, 2005 - 20:42:49 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-21-05

· EUR/USD Traders Wonder Which is Worse - the Hurricane in the US or the Political Crisis in Germany
· Strong French Consumer Spending Lifts Euro
· Yen Rallies as Koizumi Gets Appointed for Another Term

US Dollar

Now that the FOMC meeting is behind us, the dollar has weakened across the board against the majors  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (21 September 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday September 21, 2005 - 12:38:04 GMT



The euro appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2235 level and was supported around the $1.2110 level. Hurricane Rita was cited as the major reason for the dollar’s broad pullback today as traders-cum-meteorologists track the storm to see if it will impact the U  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 21-09-05 ..... 1204 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday September 21, 2005 - 12:24:14 GMT

Euro @ 1.2237/40....Resistance at 1.2235
---------------------------------------
R: 1.2235 / 1.2282-90 / 1.2305-20
S: 1.2177-53 / 1.2119-10 / 1.2054
Come to think of it, the Euro has fallen from near 1.26 three weeks ago to near 1  More...    More...



Dollar Logic?
Black Swan Capital Wednesday September 21, 2005 - 11:10:54 GMT

Key News
•Coffee Futures jumped as funds exited previously established short positions amid rumors that some coffee stored in New Orleans will be decertified by Nybot officials after damage from Katrina.
•Key reports due today (Global-View):
01:30 GMT- AUS- Westpac/MI July Leading Index
09:00 GMT- EU- Jul BOP
08:30 GMT- UK- Aug MPC Minutes
12:30 GMT- CDA- July Retail Sales
14:30 GMT- US- API and DOE Energy Inventory Surveys

Quotable
“Explaining day-to-day gyrations in the Treasury market assumes a degree of logic to the process that may not exist  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday September 21, 2005 - 10:42:31 GMT

Key Points
• Steady tightening outlook from the FOMC despite some signs of dissent.
• EUR recovers after lack of post-election selling.
• Norges Bank meeting and Canadian retail sales feature today.

Market Outlook
A steady tightening message from the FOMC yesterday, only mildly diluted by the dissenting voice of Olson and the fact that only seven of the twelve 12 regional Feds formally requested a hike in the discount rate  More...    More...



Storm fears to support franc
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday September 21, 2005 - 10:11:40 GMT

The dollar was able to push above the 1.28 level following the Fed's interest rate decision and the Swiss currency was broadly weaker against the Euro. The US dollar, however, weakened back to 1.2720 against the franc in early Europe on Wednesday while the franc regained some ground against the Euro and subsequently pushing below 1  More...    More...


Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Wednesday September 21, 2005 - 09:45:44 GMT


Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. FED did another 25bp rate hike to 3.75%. Crude Oil gained more ground to move above $67 level, amidst fears for Rita, while DJIA index dipped down after FED’s announcement, closing around 10  More...    More...



Rita ensures dollar reversion despite FOMC rate hike
CMC Markets Wednesday September 21, 2005 - 08:18:53 GMT

September 21st - The dollar gained ground on the back of the FOMC rate hike last night, suggesting that the market hadn’t fully factored in the impact of such a move although the upside has ultimately been somewhat short lived. The upgrading of hurricane Rita to a category 4 storm is weighing on traders’ minds and with oil continuing to run around the $67 level, there’s little coming through to support the US economy right now  More...    More...


Forex: The FOMC - Same old Same old
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Wednesday September 21, 2005 - 05:14:56 GMT

Market Review

The US dollar was mixed against major currencies, succumbing to modest profit-taking against the euro but gaining modestly against the yen after the US Federal Open Market Committee hiked its target rate overnight, as expected, by 25 basis points  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 21st September 2005
FX-Strategy Wednesday September 21, 2005 - 00:39:39 GMT

Price: 1.2114

Resistance: 1.2122 ... 1.2146 ... 1.2189 ... 1.2220
Support....: 1.2099 ... 1.2056 ... 1.2041 ... 1.1987

Bias: We look for 1.2122-46 to cap and for losses to 1.2041-56 initially but the greater risk is to 1  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Soars on FOMC Rate Decision
FXCM Tuesday September 20, 2005 - 22:08:35 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-20-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

· Dollar Soars on FOMC Rate Decision
· Pessimism Hangs Over Euro
· Weak Same Store Sales Sends Yen Lower

US Dollar

The dollar broke higher following the Federal Reserve’s eleventh consecutive interest rate hike to 3  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday September 20, 2005 - 21:53:12 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZ consumer confidence remains at two-year lows
The NZD slipped below 0.7000 on Tuesday after soft Q2 growth expectations and an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The NZD has suffered from poor sentiment this week stemming from risk aversion following election uncertainties, and a weaker euro with similar election troubles and soft data  More...    More...



Fed stays on course
FX Today Tuesday September 20, 2005 - 20:32:16 GMT

The Federal Reserve has increased interest rates by 0.25% to 3.75%. Although there was one dissenting vote, the Fed retained the phrase that policy can be tightened at a measured pace and is still looking to increase rates further during the fourth quarter  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (20 September 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday September 20, 2005 - 14:00:50 GMT



The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2180 level and was supported around the $1.2130 level. The tight range today is attributable to uncertainty surrounding this afternoon’s Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 20-09-05 ..... 1156 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday September 20, 2005 - 12:03:01 GMT

Euro @ 1.2161/4....Holding Short
------------------------------------------
R: 1.2187-96-2201 / 1.2244-51
S: 1.2132 / 1.2102 / 1.2067-64
The Euro has been consolidating between 1.2132-2185 ahead of the FOMC meeting. In case of a rise past 1  More...    More...



What to expect from the Fed?
INVESTICA Ltd Tuesday September 20, 2005 - 11:39:04 GMT

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision will tend to dominate on Tuesday. The Fed has chosen not to make comments over the past few days and this increases the probability that the central bank will continue with the policy of gradual interest rate increases  More...    More...


Sustainability?
Black Swan Capital Tuesday September 20, 2005 - 11:30:52 GMT

Key News
•A gauge of [German] institutional and analyst expectations fell to 38.6 from 50 in August, the ZEW Center for European Economic Research said today in Mannheim.
•Key reports due today (WSJ):
7:45a.m. ICSC-UBS Store Sales Index For Sept  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday September 20, 2005 - 10:54:30 GMT

Key Points
• FOMC guidance about future tightening prospects will be key for the USD – robust message seems
likely.
• ZEW survey shows sharp dip in sentiment for postelection responses.
• JPY backdrop remains positive – FOMC will determine preferred route for JPY strength  More...    More...



Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Tuesday September 20, 2005 - 10:38:09 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil surged yesterday to the $67 level again, amidst fears for the consequences of another hurricane, this one called Rita, while DJIA index lost the previously gained ground, falling to around 10  More...    More...



Bullish mood for Japanese equities fails to buoy Yen
CMC Markets Tuesday September 20, 2005 - 07:43:25 GMT

September 20th - The Japanese stock market continues to bound ahead, with traders seemingly convinced that the recent re-election of Prime Minister Koizumi - and the associated economic reform plan that this vote essentially validated – will be good news for the economy  More...    More...


Forex: FOMC Day - Will this be Greenspan's last hike??
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Tuesday September 20, 2005 - 05:15:54 GMT

Market Recap

The US dollar was slightly lower against major currencies, trading in a tight range as investors awaited the outcome of tonight's Federal Open Market Committee meeting in the US. As the market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate hike at the FOMC meeting, investors are more likely to be focused on the FOMC statement and any clues it may contain on the likelihood, or otherwise, of a continuation of the Fed's current cycle of modest rate hikes  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 20th September 2005
FX-Strategy Monday September 19, 2005 - 23:59:29 GMT

Price: 111.52

Resistance: 111.56 ... 111.78 ... 112.00 ... 112.25
Support....: 111.24 ... 110.90 ... 110.56 ... 110.30

Bias: Watch the 112.00-25 resistance which could stall the move higher for a return to 110.90

Bullish: Infact we saw the rally continue higher but we are a little reluctant to get too bullish at this stage with resistance around the 112  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday September 19, 2005 - 21:57:50 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD: Political uncertainty weighs heavy
The NZD struggled to keep its head above 0.70 US cents on Monday, weighed down by a market with little tolerance for political risk. With the shape of the new government currently in limbo, the NZD suffered from the uncertainty and weakened across the board  More...    More...



Forex: Oil vs. Fed – Dollar Tackles One Event Risk at a Time
FXCM Monday September 19, 2005 - 21:40:42 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-19-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Oil vs. Fed – Dollar Tackles One Event Risk at a Time
· German Polls Take a Toll on Euro
· Pound Slides as House Prices Tumble

US Dollar

There were two major themes riding in the markets today - the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the brewing storm off the coast of Florida  More...    More...



Fed Statement Uncertain, Rate Hike Likely
Foreign Exchange Analytics Monday September 19, 2005 - 21:13:08 GMT

One of the problems with catastrophic events like Katrina and 9-11 is the emotional swings most neutral observers like myself and non-neutral risk takers like yourself experience that end up playing havoc with one's views on the markets, the economy and policy  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (19 September 2005)
GCI Financial Monday September 19, 2005 - 14:19:36 GMT



The euro lost major ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2100 figure after failing to get above the $1.2175 level. The common currency gapped some 65 pips lower at the Australasian open from Friday’s close on account of a very close German federal election  More...    More...



Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Monday September 19, 2005 - 14:02:33 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil dipped down yesterday to the mid $63’s, while DJIA index regained some ground to around 10.650.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

After dismissing the possibility of a trend reversal (the cup ‘n coffe formation was easily broken), the pair is in full control by the USD bulls, who have even managed to break and currently stay below the last and key fibo level of the previous upleg that was situated at 1  More...    More...



Will higher inflation mean the UK is facing stagflation?
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday September 19, 2005 - 12:21:18 GMT

Economics Weekly: Economic Research and Analysis: Will higher inflation mean the UK is facing stagflation?

A threat of stagflation
UK consumer price inflation is accelerating, and is above target, see chart A, for the first time since 1997  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 19-09-05 ..... 1150 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday September 19, 2005 - 12:01:51 GMT

Euro @ 1.2144/47....Sell on rally
---------------------------------------------

R: 1.2158 / 1.2182-94 / 1.2237
S: 1.2102 / 1.2068 / 1.2036
As the uptrend since 1.1866 on 08-Jul has been broken. As such, there are decent chances of a fall towards 1  More...    More...



Is it an Inflation Story?
Black Swan Capital Monday September 19, 2005 - 11:24:25 GMT

Key News
•The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics forecast commodity exports would jump by 18.7 percent to a record A$116.8 billion ($89.9 billion) in the fiscal year to the end of June 2006. (Reuters)
•Key reports due today (WSJ):
1:00p  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Monday September 19, 2005 - 10:47:04 GMT

Key Points
• German election gridlock hits EUR.
• FOMC outcome also needs to be seen before market takes a firm view on EUR-USD.
• OPEC meeting, Canadian portfolio data due today –
UK RICS housing survey tonight.

Market Outlook
The worst of results from the German election with no clear winner emerging and this has weighed heavily on the EUR overnight  More...    More...



US dangers still present
INVESTICA Ltd Monday September 19, 2005 - 10:32:14 GMT

The Euro was unable to sustain a move above 1.23 on Friday and weakened back to levels near 1.22 in New York. The Euro suffered further losses in Asian trading on Monday, weakening to 1.2105, after the German election results before rallying to 1.2145.

In the German provisional results, the CDU won 35  More...    More...



Indecisive German election result leaves Euro to test lower levels.
CMC Markets Monday September 19, 2005 - 07:34:23 GMT

September 19th - Many traders had been hoping that Angela Merkel would win the weekend’s German election on the basis that economic reform would prove good for both the country’s embattled economy and the Euro. However, although the result was in line with these expectations, the margin is too slim to offer any workable majority even with a coalition and the ongoing confusion as to what happens next does seem to threaten exposing the common currency on the downside  More...    More...


Forex: The German Election's over, and the EUR falls, now for the FOMC
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Monday September 19, 2005 - 05:40:37 GMT

Market Recap


The US dollar was trading steady against the major currency pairs but remains supported ahead of an expected US rate hike following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting tomorrow.
The dollar will build on gains against the euro as traders deserted the single European currency following political uncertainty in Germany from Sunday's elections

Dealers said the expected 25 percentage basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve tomorrow will keep the euro and yen under pressure

Trading was thin because of public holidays in key Asian markets

Market Preview

The German election has come and gone, and while it's close, it appears that Schroder may sneak in, but the EUR has sold-off heavily today, brekaing below support at 1  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 19th September 2005
FX-Strategy Sunday September 18, 2005 - 12:31:31 GMT

Price: 111.34

Resistance: 111.48 ... 111.78 ... 112.29 ... 112.60
Support....: 111.00 ... 110.66 ... 110.47 ... 110.14

Bias: We favor 111.46-51 capping and for losses to 110.47-66 initially and later to 109.62-90

Bullish: Infact we saw a rally all the way to the 111  More...    More...



Forex: FX Briefing 16 September 2005
BHF-Bank Sunday September 18, 2005 - 11:42:52 GMT

FX Briefing 16 September 2005
Highlights
*Japan is beginning to move away from its ultra-loose monetary policy
* “Division of labour” between monetary and fiscal policy after Hurricane Katrina
* Election result in Germany completely open

Dollar overcomes uncertainty
The US dollar has this week continued to recover from its setback after Hurricane Katrina  More...    More...



COT analysis courtesy Cumino
Global-View Saturday September 17, 2005 - 11:45:16 GMT

CLICK AND UNZIP    More...


Dollar Rallies on Expectations that Fed will Deliver Another Quarter Point Rate Hike
FXCM Friday September 16, 2005 - 21:13:34 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-16-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

· Dollar Rallies on Expectations that Fed will Deliver Another Quarter Point Rate Hike
· Euro Traders Zero In on German Elections
· Dollar Yen Breaks Higher on Greenback Strength

US Dollar

It has been an exceptionally strong week for the dollar  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (16 September 2005)
GCI Financial Friday September 16, 2005 - 14:30:21 GMT



The euro retraced most of its intraday gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency briefly printed above the US$ 1.2300 figure and remained supported around the $1.2205 level. Stops were hit below the $1.2225 level, representing the 23  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 16-09-05 ..... 1200 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday September 16, 2005 - 12:10:54 GMT

Euro @ 1.2246/49....Support at 1.2194 is strong
------------------------------------------------
R: 1.2283 / 1.2309-27
S: 1.2253-39 / 1.2194
The Euro has retreated from its intra-day high near 1.2313, indicating only weak Euro-buying interest  More...    More...



$ Forecasting Futility
Black Swan Capital Friday September 16, 2005 - 11:19:43 GMT

Key News
•The Bush administration is turning up the heat on Beijing to allow the Chinese yuan to rise against the dollar, reigniting an economic dispute that had appeared settled. (WSJ)
•China's economy has grown by an average of 9.5% a year over the past twenty years and the OECD says it won't slow down any time soon  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday September 16, 2005 - 11:05:17 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD reverses yesterday’s losses in Asia, reflecting uncertainty over forthcoming events.
• EUR crosses up in Asia – drift off in Europe.
• German opinion polls, US BoP/TIC and Michigan sentiment feature today.
• Market will be looking at the BoP for evidence of US repatriation  More...    More...



Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Friday September 16, 2005 - 10:41:30 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil dipped down yesterday to the mid $64’s, while DJIA index dipped below 10.600.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

The pair managed to held the current uptrend line in place, as a dip below 1  More...    More...



Dollar faces deficit test
INVESTICA Ltd Friday September 16, 2005 - 10:24:57 GMT

The Euro found some measure of support around the 1.22 level against the dollar, but struggled to make any significant headway during Thursday. The Euro did, however, find stronger support in Asian trading on Friday, pushing to 1.2295 against the US currency in early Europe on Friday  More...    More...


Euro takes upper hand against Sterling as German election looms
CMC Markets Friday September 16, 2005 - 08:28:36 GMT

September 16th - Sterling had been making some reasonable headway against the common currency over the last couple of weeks although a marked reversion is now being seen. This week’s UK retail sales figures do seem to have derailed this run of appreciation after a lacklustre figure has left many convinced that inflationary pressures are waning and Bank of England base rates may indeed now hold at 4  More...    More...


Forex: All the action happen's during the Asian session
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Friday September 16, 2005 - 04:49:42 GMT

Market Recap

The US dollar was trading mixed against the major currencies as traders positioned themselves ahead of an expected rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee next Tuesday. However, just over the Asian lunch period we have seen the USD sell-off sharply, with most shops suggesting it was a short squeeze in EUR and GBP  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 16th September 2005
FX-Strategy Friday September 16, 2005 - 00:55:16 GMT

Price: 1.8070

Resistance: 1.8079 ... 1.8115 ... 1.8140 ... 1.8180
Support....: 1.8036 ... 1.8014 ... 1.7973 ... 1.7958

Bias: While there are signs of a base being formed, we feel losses can extend to 1.7958-73 before a stronger correction ensues

Bullish: Losses really turned quite aggressive yesterday to reach to the lower 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday September 15, 2005 - 21:50:49 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ MPS ensures choppy NZD trading
It was a choppy day's trading yesterday for the NZD with the big news of the day being the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement. After opening at around 0.7075 the NZD jumped through 0.7100 resistance to a high of 0  More...    More...



FX Market Commentary and Analysis (15 September 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday September 15, 2005 - 14:11:12 GMT



The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2195 level and was capped around the $1.2290 level. Stops were triggered below the $1.2245 level, representing the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



Dollar survives data barrage
FX Today Thursday September 15, 2005 - 13:32:01 GMT

The US data had a slightly weaker than expected tone, but was relatively close to expectations. Jobless claims rose to 398,000, but still captured only a small proportion of hurricane Katrina’s impact. The New York manufacturing index dipped to 17.0 from 23  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 15-09-05 ..... 1212 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday September 15, 2005 - 12:14:48 GMT


Euro @ 1.2228/31....Sell on rally
----------------------------------------
R: 1.2240 / 1.2264-84 / 1.2299-1.2324
S: 1.2196 / 1.2179-66 / 1.2134
The Euro is seeming mild short-covering after a brief dip below 1.2200 during the day  More...    More...



A Pound Correlation?
Black Swan Capital Thursday September 15, 2005 - 11:26:16 GMT

Key News

Key reports due today (WSJ):
8:30a.m. August Consumer Price Index. Consensus: +0.6%. Previous: +0.5%.
8:30a.m. August Consumer Price Index, Ex-Food & Energy. Consensus: +0.2%. Previous: +0.1%.
8:30a.m. Sept  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday September 15, 2005 - 10:52:19 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD breaks lower – further weakness likely.
• Big jump in Japanese equities should support the JPY.
• UK retail sales soft - RBNZ hawkishness not that emphatic.
• SNB policy announcement due – outside chance of tightening  More...    More...



SNB decision today
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday September 15, 2005 - 10:06:41 GMT

The dollar retreated from levels above 1.26 in European trading on Wednesday, but the US currency pushed back above this level in Asian trading on Thursday and pushed to highs just above 1.2650. The Swiss currency was able to hold gains against the Euro and was close to 1  More...    More...


Dollar finds upside despite oil supply concerns
CMC Markets Thursday September 15, 2005 - 08:53:34 GMT

September 15th - Another rally in oil prices off the back of yesterday’s worse than expected inventory data has done little to peg back the dollar in overnight trade. Genuine concern is starting to emerge as to how supplies will manage through the Northern hemisphere winter - with particular regard to demand for heating oil in the US – but perhaps it’s a result of the better than expected trade deficit data that’s leaving the market less than concerned with this latest rally in prices  More...    More...


Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Thursday September 15, 2005 - 08:42:20 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil bounced up yesterday to the mid $65’s, while DJIA index managed to close just above the 10.600 mark.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

As it was a premonition, the pair broke down to every single uptrend line on a daily basis yesterday  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 15th September 2005
FX-Strategy Thursday September 15, 2005 - 00:49:33 GMT

Price: 1.8224

Resistance: 1.8258 ... 1.8275 ... 1.8303 ... 1.8324
Support....: 1.8200 ... 1.8081 ... 1.8146 ... 1.8100

Bias: Mixed - though we feel the main risk is lower and look for moves to test support at 1.8180-00, 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday September 14, 2005 - 21:11:01 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: Strong retail sales result takes NZD higher
After opening just above big-figure 0.7000 support, the NZD was bought higher with the catalyst being NZ retail sales. July retail sales rose 1.8%, a stronger than expected result which sparked a NZD midmorning rally against major currencies and continued for the rest of the session up to an intraday high of 0  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (14 September 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday September 14, 2005 - 13:47:32 GMT



The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2330 level and was supported around the $1.2255 level. Technically, the common currency traded above the $1.2310/ 15 level, representing the 38  More...    More...



US uncertainty continues
FX Today Wednesday September 14, 2005 - 13:13:43 GMT

The headline US retail sales figure was worse than expected with a 2.1% monthly decline, but the drop was led by a huge 12% drop in auto sales and there was a 1.0% underlying increase compared with expectations of a 0.5% increase. The data overall is likely to add to the uncertainty surrounding the US economy  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 14-09-05 ..... 1130 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday September 14, 2005 - 11:35:25 GMT

Euro @ 1.2290/3.....Wait and watch
------------------------------------------
R: 1.2303 / 1.2314-33 / 1.2365-82
S: 1.2263-46 / 1.2208-1.2190 / 1.2171
The Euro has been trading narrowly between 1.2263-2310 so far today. This is within a wider range of 1  More...    More...



ZIRP end could help yen
Black Swan Capital Wednesday September 14, 2005 - 11:04:32 GMT

Key News
•Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kazumasa Iwata said on Wednesday the central bank is now "very close" to ending its super-loose monetary policy, fuelling speculation that a policy shift could come sooner than markets have anticipated. (Reuters)
•Key reports due today (WSJ):
8:30a  More...    More...



Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Wednesday September 14, 2005 - 11:03:09 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil holds below $64, while DJIA index closed just below 10.700 for the second straight day.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

Well below the 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday September 14, 2005 - 10:56:18 GMT

Key Points
• FT claims that Fed will hike rates next week, but outlook less clear.
• Downside bias on EUR-USD - contrasting data for NZD and AUD.
• UK unemployment steady.
• US retail sales/ind prod feature today.

Market Outlook
Unusual front-page headline story in the Financial Times today (UK version at least) ‘US set to raise rates again’ highlighting the likelihood of the FOMC continuing to raise rates next week  More...    More...



Yen continues to look exposed as economic data remains lacklustre, falling oil provides no real support
CMC Markets Wednesday September 14, 2005 - 07:26:00 GMT

September 14th - Oil prices appear to be consolidating around the $63 mark ahead of this afternoon’s inventory data, although after yesterday’s surprise fall in the US trade deficit the fact that we’re seeing some resistance for crude to move lower shouldn’t be putting any undue pressure on the greenback  More...    More...


Forex: The USD has more upside, BUT not much more
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Wednesday September 14, 2005 - 05:30:28 GMT

Market Recap

The US dollar lost ground against major currencies as profit taking took hold after the greenback had surged overnight with investors encouraged by some upbeat US trade data. The USD/JPY had moved above 111 and below 1.2250 USD to the euro in New York overnight after the final trade deficit for July came in at a level that surprised the market  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday September 14, 2005 - 01:02:57 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD opens slightly lower on US trade deficit dataIt was a largely an uneventful day for the NZD in a session void of any major economic data. After opening the domestic session at around 0.7030, the currency treaded water for most of the day making some ground against the AUD and euro later in the session  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 14th September 2005
FX-Strategy Wednesday September 14, 2005 - 00:58:59 GMT

Price: 1.2595

Resistance: 1.2642 ... 1.2660 ... 1.2686 ... 1.2730
Support....: 1.2580 ... 1.2544 ... 1.2524 ... 1.2491

Bias: We require a break above 1.2644 to extend gains to 1.2686-96 else a pullback to 1.2524-44 is possible

Bullish: Gains stalled just short of the 1  More...    More...



Forex: Surprising Decline in Trade Deficit Helps Dollar to Extend Rally
FXCM Tuesday September 13, 2005 - 21:41:11 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-13-05

· Surprising Decline in Trade Deficit Helps Dollar to Extend Rally
· Inflation on the Rise in Europe and the UK
· Weak Economic Data Sends Yen Tumbling

US Dollar

During the US trading session, the dollar continued to gain strength against the euro even though it ended the day virtually unchanged  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (13 September 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday September 13, 2005 - 14:16:55 GMT



The euro came off marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2245 level and was capped around the $1.2315 level. The common currency spiked to intraday lows after the release of U.S. economic data that saw the July trade deficit narrow to –US$ 57  More...    More...



Dollar Hodgepodge
Black Swan Capital Tuesday September 13, 2005 - 11:45:01 GMT

Key News

•Key reports due today (WSJ):
7:45a.m. ICSC-UBS Store Sales Index For Sept. 11 Wk. Previous: Unch.
8:30a.m. August Producer Price Index. Consensus: +0.8%. Previous: +1.0%.
8:30a.m. August Producer Price Index, Ex-Food & Energy  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday September 13, 2005 - 10:54:22 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD still looking soft amidst German political uncertainty, but USD hurdles are also present this week.
• JPY gives up more ground.
• NOK may lack sufficient positive short-term momentum to take out key levels after change in government  More...    More...



Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Tuesday September 13, 2005 - 09:48:52 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil holds below $64, while DJIA index closed just below 10.700.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

As expected, any long positions were very risky at the moment, since pair is weak and lacks the momentum for any strong rebound  More...    More...



Focus on UK CPI data as traders look for impact of high oil prices
CMC Markets Tuesday September 13, 2005 - 08:37:55 GMT

September 13th - Additional comments from the Fed last night suggesting that US monetary policy will continue to tighten in the near term have served to bolster the dollar in recent trade. Cable is once again working its way down towards the 1.80 level despite the fact that critical CPI data is due for release from the UK later in the session  More...    More...


Forex: Alot of data this week, but most probably very little action
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Tuesday September 13, 2005 - 07:05:56 GMT

Market Review

The dollar steadied on Tuesday, supported by growing expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week and deepening uncertainty over an upcoming German election that capped the euro's rise.

Comments from Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher on Monday that the economic risks created by Hurricane Katrina would be temporary had bolstered the dollar as his remarks were taken to suggest the central bank would raise rates on Sept  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 13th September 2005
FX-Strategy Tuesday September 13, 2005 - 00:43:15 GMT

Price: 1.2560

Resistance: 1.2593 ... 1.2619 ... 1.2642 ... 1.2660
Support....: 1.2551 ... 1.2530 ... 1.2491 ... 1.2465

Bias: While 1.2543-74 supports we look for gains to reach 1.2619-42 at least

Bullish: The break above 1  More...    More...



Forex: Heavy Data Week Threatens Dollar Rally
FXCM Monday September 12, 2005 - 22:35:24 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-12-05

· Heavy Data Week Threatens Dollar Rally
· Politics Main Focus in Europe
· Koizumi Victory Fails to Help Yen Hold Onto Gains Against Dollar

US Dollar

On a day absent of any US economic releases, the dollar continued to gain strength  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday September 12, 2005 - 21:42:19 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD lower on soft euro
The NZD traded a tight range throughout the morning despite a drop in Q2 terms of trade, which was driven by high oil prices and falling export volumes. The NZD found itself under pressure in the afternoon from stop-loss euro selling dragging the currency to a 0  More...    More...



US Inflation Expectations Waiting For Take Off
Foreign Exchange Analytics Monday September 12, 2005 - 20:56:17 GMT

Just when it looked like there was no end to the bond market conundrum (a flat yield curve leaning toward inverted), along comes Katrina and voila the curve is steepening. And so it should as the fallout from Katrina is showing up in energy prices...sure only gasoline is above pre-Katrina levels, but it is safe to say the supply-shock from Katrina is real and all else being equal (like not releasing SPR and IEA supply) the hurricane is supporting prices  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (12 September 2005)
GCI Financial Monday September 12, 2005 - 14:39:13 GMT



The euro moved sharply lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2280 level, its weakest showing since 31 August. Stops were triggered below the $1.2345 level, representing the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 12-09-05 ..... 1219 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday September 12, 2005 - 12:29:12 GMT


Euro @ 1.2315/18.....Breaking down?
-----------------------------------
R: 1.2344-53 / 1.2379-90 / 1.2404-22
S: 1.2290 / 1.2266-52
The Euro seems to be breaking down and the region below 1.2342 is potential "Bear territory" for it  More...    More...



Fed Pause?
Black Swan Capital Monday September 12, 2005 - 11:41:12 GMT

Monday 12 September 2005 7:00 AM EST www.blackswantrading.com

Key News

•Key reports due today (WSJ):
No major economic indicators are scheduled for today.

Quotable

“In the realm of ideas, everything depends on enthusiasm; in the real world, all rests on perseverance  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Monday September 12, 2005 - 10:58:51 GMT

Key Points
• Koizumi sails to victory in Japan.
• EUR-USD breaks lower in Asia.
• UK PPI soft. Norwegian election outcome too close to call.

Market Outlook
A resounding victory for Koizumi, although this has not been sufficient so far to push USD-JPY lower on a sustainable basis  More...    More...



FX Briefing
BHF-Bank Monday September 12, 2005 - 10:23:55 GMT

FX Briefing 9 September 2005
Highlights
* US government grants significantly higher funds for hurricane relief
* Fed representatives see higher risks for price stability
* Uncertainty about outcome of German elections increases
* Markets count on re-election of Koizumi as prime minister in Japan

Market sentiment begins to turn in favour of the dollar
The US dollar has recovered slightly from the effect of the hurricane  More...    More...



The economic aftermath of Hurricane Katrina
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday September 12, 2005 - 10:11:24 GMT

Economics Weekly: Economic Research and Analysis: The economic aftermath of Hurricane Katrina

Overview
Quite a lot has already being written about the effects
of hurricane Katrina in the US, but that is because it is having an impact far beyond the area it devastated  More...    More...



US deficits will be in focus
INVESTICA Ltd Monday September 12, 2005 - 10:01:26 GMT

The dollar was unable to strengthen through 1.2375 against the Euro on Friday with rumours of central back Euro support to protect 1.2370. The dollar weakened to 1.2450, but resisted a retreat through this level and strengthened back to 1.2410 in late New York  More...    More...


Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Monday September 12, 2005 - 09:25:00 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil holds below $65, while DJIA index closed above 10.700. Crude Oil confirms to be trading within the uptrend channel, but not breaking above, which can serve as guidance for future resistance levels  More...    More...



Yen finds a little upside off Koizumi re-election, longer term prospects may be better
CMC Markets Monday September 12, 2005 - 07:49:56 GMT

September 12th - Despite yesterday’s election victory by Japan’s incumbent Prime Minister Koizumi and the fact that oil prices have started to retreat once again in early trade, the dollar is struggling to hold below 110 against the Yen. With at least this element of political uncertainty now out of the way, traders have been able to return their attentions to the underlying fact that the Japanese economy remains in a bad way and although this election has been seen as a referendum for reform, meaningful change will doubtless take some time to materialise  More...    More...


Forex: A big week of data which could set the USD's direction for the rest of 2005
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Monday September 12, 2005 - 05:21:19 GMT

Market Recap

The yen climbed to a two-week high against the euro on Monday after Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's party won a landslide victory in Japanese elections, spurring hopes for more foreign buying of Tokyo shares.
The euro tumbled against the yen as Koizumi's resounding win contrasted with investor uncertainty over the outcome of Germany's own upcoming election  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 12th September 2005
FX-Strategy Sunday September 11, 2005 - 08:29:13 GMT

Price: 1.2429

Resistance: 1.2465 ... 1.2511 ... 1.2540 ... 1.2576
Support....: 1.2406 ... 1.2385 ... 1.2368 ... 1.2345

Bias: We look for 1.2368-85 to support and for gains back to 1.2462-67 at least with 1.2536-74 then targeted

Bullish: Price stalled a little lower than expected on Friday and retraced to 1  More...    More...



Busy Week Ahead Should Bring More Excitement for Dollar Traders
FXCM Friday September 9, 2005 - 19:38:45 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-09-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Busy Week Ahead Should Bring More Excitement for Dollar Traders
· Euro Holds Onto Gains Despite Weak French Data
· Elections the Main Focus for Yen Traders

US Dollar

After a week of recovery, the dollar finally ended the day marginally lower against the euro  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (9 September 2005)
GCI Financial Friday September 9, 2005 - 15:04:03 GMT



The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2440 level and was supported around the $1.2375 level. The common currency, however, gave back some intraday gains early in the North American session after the release of hawkish U  More...    More...



Dollar faces crucial week
FX Today Friday September 9, 2005 - 13:38:55 GMT

The dollar has again attached resistance levels beyond 1.24 against the Euro and the US currency has again failed to hold this level. Position adjustment will tend to dominate over the remainder of Friday and the dollar tone will be important ahead of a crucial week next week  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 09-09-05 ..... 1228 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday September 9, 2005 - 12:33:11 GMT


Euro @ 1.2402/5....May drop to 1.2366-37
-------------------------------------------------
R: 1.2411-19 / 1.2442 / 1.2483
S: 1.2378-63 / 1.2347-37
The Euro seems to be giving up the fight and the downtrend on the 4-hour is currently in force  More...    More...



Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Friday September 9, 2005 - 11:26:55 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil holds below $65, while DJIA index closed above 10.650.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

A shorter than usual report today. Pair trading below the 1  More...    More...



The Dither Trap!
Black Swan Capital Friday September 9, 2005 - 11:12:10 GMT

Key News

•France's industrial production fell by the most in 11 months in July. (Bloomberg)
•Global oil consumption will average 83.48 million barrels a day this year, 0.3 percent less than forecast a month ago, the IEA said. (Bloomberg)
•After nearly a decade of consistent declines, lending by Japanese banks, excluding special factors, rose 0  More...    More...



Sterling doubts liable to return
INVESTICA Ltd Friday September 9, 2005 - 09:52:29 GMT

Sterling was relatively volatile against the dollar, although the overall ranges were relatively narrow. Sterling retained a firm stance against the Euro with a move to near 0.6750. Sterling weakened back to 1.8330 against the dollar in Asian trading on Friday before a recovery back to 1  More...    More...


Currencies set for indecisive finish to week as oil and inflation pressure traders.
CMC Markets Friday September 9, 2005 - 07:43:14 GMT

September 9th - With little news around to provide traders with any direction, currency markets could find themselves in for a quiet end to the week. Resurgent oil prices will without doubt be under scrutiny and a push much higher may serve to weigh on the dollar as concerns over the impact this will have on the trade gap – which is already going to be bulging in the wake of hurricane Katrina – build further  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 9th September 2005
FX-Strategy Friday September 9, 2005 - 00:50:53 GMT

Price: 1.2402

Resistance: 1.2424 ... 1.2451 ... 1.2488 ... 1.2508
Support....: 1.2381 ... 1.2369 ... 1.2331 ... 1.2297

Bias: While 1.2416-24 caps there is still risk to 1.2331-69 but we expect a correction higher soon

Bullish: Key resistance held yesterday and we have seen further grudging losses and we should allow for these to remain below 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday September 8, 2005 - 21:45:37 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD weighed by NZD/AUD sell-off
With the NZD unable to regain 0.7100, the currency remained pressured during the domestic session yesterday as easing oil prices continue to support a USD recovery. While a mild improvement was seen from intra-day lows of 0  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Traders Continue to Debate the Outcome of September Fed Rate Decision
FXCM Thursday September 8, 2005 - 21:13:31 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-08-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

· Dollar Traders Continue to Debate the Outcome of September Fed Rate Decision
· Bank of England Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged
· Yen Slides Despite Optimistic Comments from BoJ

US Dollar

The dollar is firmer once again as the Katrina induced jitteriness in the markets continues to subside  More...    More...



Forex: Global-View Survey Analysis by Cumino
Global-View Thursday September 8, 2005 - 14:15:57 GMT

Analysis courtesy Cumino:

GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).

EUR USD 3 months: (1st day close 1  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (8 September 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday September 8, 2005 - 14:15:08 GMT



The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2450 level and remained supported around the $1.2400 figure. Technically, today’s high is just below the 38.2% retracement level of the move from $1  More...    More...



Forex: Global-View Monthly Forex Survey Results
Global-View Thursday September 8, 2005 - 14:13:23 GMT

In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar turned slightly bearish against the euro. The three month ahead forecast for EURUSD was a mean 1.2548 from 1  More...    More...


Where next for the Fed?
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday September 8, 2005 - 13:42:15 GMT

The Federal Reserve will face a difficult decision in the short term. Hurricane Katrina will create pressure for a looser monetary policy to support the economy, but will also increase pressure for higher interest rates to ensure that higher energy prices do not trigger a wider increase in inflation  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 08-09-05 ..... 1211 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday September 8, 2005 - 12:51:21 GMT

Euro @ 1.2419/22....Support 1.2399. Sell rally
----------------------------------------------
R: 1.2445-55 / 1.2485
S: 1.2404-2399 / 1.2365-45
The Euro has come down well to 1.2405, but finds respectable Support at 1.2404-2399  More...    More...



Dollar Tug-o-War
Black Swan Capital Thursday September 8, 2005 - 11:39:26 GMT

Quotable

“We all know that art is not truth. Art is a lie that makes us realize truth.”

Pablo Picasso

FX Trading

The dollar is trading in the midst of a tug-a-war it seems! Dampening effects of Katrina vs  More...    More...



Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Thursday September 8, 2005 - 11:17:42 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil down to below $65, in another $1+ downmove after the highs seen some days ago. DJIA index closed above 10.600.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

Pair trading barely above the 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday September 8, 2005 - 11:01:18 GMT

Key Points
• Medium-term Fed bias seems clear, but September 20 outcome is not.
• Downside favoured for EUR-USD today, although market will be watching the oil price response to weekly inventory data.
• Australian labour market data stronger than expected  More...    More...



Fed looking at inflation
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday September 8, 2005 - 09:53:57 GMT

The dollar secured a generally firm tone during Wednesday, strengthening to a high close to 1.2400 in New York. The dollar was unable to push through this level, but remained firm on Thursday. The dollar secured some support from a moderation in oil prices and from another firm performance on Wall Street  More...    More...


Yen eases against dollar as FOMC rate speculation builds once again
CMC Markets Thursday September 8, 2005 - 08:10:08 GMT

September 8th - Comments by the Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow last night have reinforced traders’ beliefs that interest rates will now continue to rise in the US as the already present inflationary pressures stand to worsen in the aftermath of hurricane Katrina  More...    More...


Yen eases against dollar as FOMC rate speculation builds once again
CMC Markets Thursday September 8, 2005 - 08:09:36 GMT

September 8th - Comments by the Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow last night have reinforced traders’ beliefs that interest rates will now continue to rise in the US as the already present inflationary pressures stand to worsen in the aftermath of hurricane Katrina  More...    More...


Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday September 8, 2005 - 01:21:26 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD lower as USD improves
With a lack of local drivers, the market continues to speculate as to whether the impact of Hurricane Katrina will see the Federal Reserve hold US interest rates steady at the September 20 FOMC meeting  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 8th September 2005
FX-Strategy Thursday September 8, 2005 - 00:46:55 GMT

Price: 1.2419

Resistance: 1.2444 ... 1.2473 ... 1.2510 ... 1.2536
Support....: 1.2404 ... 1.2380 ... 1.2356 ... 1.2331

Bias: Cautiously, while 1.2462-76 caps we feel there is room for losses to 1.2297-1.2330

Bullish: While gains were made yesterday, these remained below the final 1  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar – Could the Fed Deliver a Mid-Cycle Pause?
FXCM Wednesday September 7, 2005 - 21:35:12 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-07-05

By Kathy Lien Chief Strategist

· Dollar – Could the Fed Deliver a Mid-Cycle Pause?
· Bank of England Expected to Stand Pat on Interest Rates
· Japanese Data Shows Signs of Weakness

US Dollar - The dollar rebounded for the second consecutive day against the Euro as the post-Katrina recovery efforts continue  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (7 September 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday September 7, 2005 - 14:36:45 GMT



The euro came off moderately vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2415 level and was capped around the $1.2537 level. The common currency’s descent during European dealing and early North American dealing was abrupt despite the release of lower-than-expected Q2 U  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday September 7, 2005 - 14:02:11 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD rises in early European trading, but some USD support should be forthcoming.
• USD prospects will depend in part on oil price developments and any messages from the Fed.
• Chicago Fed’s Moskow speaks later today.
• German ind prod, BoC policy outcome and Fed’s Beige Book also due  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 07-09-05 ..... 1217 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday September 7, 2005 - 12:29:01 GMT

Aussie @ 0.7678/83....Risking Long
--------------------------------------------
R: 0.7700-05 / 0.7735 / 0.7760-80
S: 0.7671-60 / 0.7648-22 / 0.7614-03
The Aussie tested 0.7700 levels today and saw some sellers there. However it seems to have formed a robust intermediate uptrend on the 4-hour Candles, with Support 0  More...    More...



The pound's crude argument
Black Swan Capital Wednesday September 7, 2005 - 11:07:25 GMT

Quotable

“The perfect Tao is without difficulty,
Save that it avoids picking and choosing.

Open lines to the Zen poem: Hsin-hsin Ming (Treatise on Faith in the Mind)

FX Trading

The pound looks pricey  More...    More...



Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Wednesday September 7, 2005 - 10:32:21 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil down to below $66, retracing further from its all-time highs at $70. DJIA index closed barely below 10.600.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

The Eur/Usd pair is currently fighting to stay above the first fibo level (which was broken few days ago), the 38  More...    More...



Australian dollar tests resistance
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday September 7, 2005 - 10:29:01 GMT

The Australian dollar has pushed back to near 0.77 against the US dollar in local trading on Wednesday, but has not been able to strengthen through this level. The Australian GDP increase was bigger than expected at 1.3% for the second quarter, supported by rising investment levels  More...    More...


Euro under siege; German election may offer some respite
CMC Markets Wednesday September 7, 2005 - 07:32:47 GMT

September 7th - As concern over economic and political stability within the eurozone continues as a theme, the common currency is losing further ground against the Pound. There’s no real sign of the Bank of England reversing the recent rate cut - and indeed the MPC meet again over the next two days – but in the longer term unless we see some solid data coming out of the EU – and in this regard today’s July industrial production data from Germany will come under some scrutiny - there’s not too much that suggests this trend can be reversed  More...    More...


Forex: The volume may be back, but the activity is still missing
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Wednesday September 7, 2005 - 05:30:01 GMT

Market Recap

The US dollar advanced against the yen in early afternoon trade here, after overnight data showing a strong US services sector overrode concerns the Federal Reserve may stop hiking interest rates at its next policy meeting.
Australian Gross domestic product in the second quarter to June rose a seasonally adjusted 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday September 7, 2005 - 00:43:13 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD consolidates below 0.7100
The NZD consolidated below 0.7100 during local session trade yesterday, as the resumption of refinery operations following last week's outages saw oil prices ease providing some respite for the USD  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the Japanese Yen vs U.S. Dollar 7th September 2005
FX-Strategy Wednesday September 7, 2005 - 00:25:33 GMT

Price: 109.59

Resistance: 109.82 ... 110.00 ... 110.32 ... 110.74
Support....: 109.27 ... 109.10 ... 108.75 ... 108.61

Bias: Cautiously bullish but we still need a break above 109.97-00 to provoke follow-through to 110  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar - September Fed Rate Hike Still in Play as Greenspan Searches for Answers
FXCM Tuesday September 6, 2005 - 22:03:53 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-06-05

·Dollar - September Fed Rate Hike Still in Play as Greenspan Searches for Answers
·Euro Traders Looking Beyond the Good Data
·Bank of England Could Pass on Another Rate Cut This Week

US Dollar

The first thing that traders did after coming back from their summer vacations was to send the dollar higher  More...    More...



ISM dollar support
FX Today Tuesday September 6, 2005 - 14:23:38 GMT

The ISM index for the services sector was stronger than expected at 65.0 for August, easing fears over the US economy, but markets will still demand evidence on the post-hurricane data. In the short term, the dollar should be able to strengthen slightly, but progress will be slow at best with an underlying tone of consolidation amid interest rate uncertainty.    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (6 September 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday September 6, 2005 - 12:50:35 GMT



The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency receded to the US$ 1.2440 level and was capped around the $1.2525 level. A move lower in crude oil prices lessened demand for the common currency as U.S. light crude is back trading below the $67  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 06-09-05 ..... 1140 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday September 6, 2005 - 12:24:10 GMT



Euro @ 1.2474/7....Lightening Short positions
---------------------------------------------
R: 1.2509-22 / 1.2555 / 1.2588-98
S: 1.2442 / 1.2415 / 1.2393
The Euro fell to an intra-day low near 1.2442 today. It is likely to consolidate between 1  More...    More...



Fed skip!
Black Swan Capital Tuesday September 6, 2005 - 11:29:39 GMT

Quotable

“Credit expansion cannot increase the supply of real goods. It merely brings about a rearrangement. It diverts capital investment away from the course prescribed by the state of economic wealth and market conditions.”

Ludwig von Mises

FX Trading

Is a skip by the Fed already priced into the dollar?

US $ index chart daily


What if the Fed CAN’T afford to skip? We believe this view from Ted Wieseman at Morgan Stanley 5 Sep ’05 sums up the situation quite well  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday September 6, 2005 - 10:48:28 GMT

Key Points
• USD bounces back a little as oil prices stabilise.
• FOMC policy remains in focus.
• US non-manufacturing ISM is today’s main feature.

Market Outlook
Market expectations about the impact of the hurricane are starting to stabilise a little, in part because of the lower oil price, which is helping to reduce the sense of crisis  More...    More...



Confidence holds dollar key
INVESTICA Ltd Tuesday September 6, 2005 - 10:10:32 GMT

The dollar found support at 1.2585 against the Euro and rallied back to highs just beyond 1.2515 before settling close to 1.2540. Trading was generally edgy and volumes were cut sharply later in the day by the US Labour day holiday. The dollar continued to find some relief in Asian trading on Tuesday and the dollar pushed towards resistance at 1  More...    More...


Forex Morning Meeting - European Session Report
FXstreet.com Tuesday September 6, 2005 - 09:40:36 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil down to below $67, retracing a bit from its all-time highs at $70.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

The Eur/Usd pair is bouncing down after touching the upper band of the current uptrend channel, which more or less was situated around 1  More...    More...



Forex Morning meeting
FXstreet.com Tuesday September 6, 2005 - 09:39:59 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil down to below $67, retracing a bit from its all-time highs at $70.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

The Eur/Usd pair is bouncing down after touching the upper band of the current uptrend channel, which more or less was situated around 1  More...    More...



Softer oil boosts dollar against Yen but forthcoming election and raft of economic numbers should ensure further direction.
CMC Markets Tuesday September 6, 2005 - 08:11:06 GMT

September 6th - Softer oil prices have helped the dollar in overnight trade with the Yen pulling back from recent highs around the 108.75 mark. However, USD/JPY still remains below 110 and the combination of cheaper crude and the threat of an easing in US monetary policy could lend further support to the JPY in the shorter term  More...    More...


Forex: I'm Baaaaaack!!!
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Tuesday September 6, 2005 - 06:40:56 GMT

Market Recap

The US dollar firmed against the yen and the eur, supported by technically-driven position adjustments following the greenback's recent sharp slides. Steadier oil prices in the wake of pledges to release emergency oil reserves has helped soothe some of the unease seen towards the dollar in the wake of Hurricane Katrina  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 6th September 2005
FX-Strategy Tuesday September 6, 2005 - 01:14:01 GMT

Price: 109.31

Resistance: 109.50 ... 109.85 ... 110.26 ... 110.74
Support....: 108.85 ... 108.61 ... 108.40 ... 108.13

Bias: Waiting for break of the 108.61-109.55 range for follow-through

Bullish: Losses reached 108  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday September 6, 2005 - 00:38:39 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD rallies above 0.7100
The ongoing re-evaluation of the pace of US interest rate increases following Hurricane Katrina continued to pressure the USD yesterday. The NZD benefited from this negative USD sentiment, extending gains during the domestic session to highs of 0  More...    More...



Dollar looks for weak correction
FX Today Monday September 5, 2005 - 15:24:37 GMT

Dollar confidence will remain fragile in the short term due to speculation that the September Fed interest rate increase will be postponed. The dollar is due for a correction following the sharp losses over the past week, especially against Sterling and liquidity will be very low for the remainder of Monday, but the dollar needs to strengthen back through 1  More...    More...


Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (5 September 2005)
GCI Financial Monday September 5, 2005 - 14:58:40 GMT



The euro was little-changed vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2585 level and was supported around the $1.2525 level. Today’s high was a few pips shy of a multi-month high dating back to 26 May for the common currency  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 05-09-05 ..... 1204 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday September 5, 2005 - 12:12:06 GMT

Aussie @ 0.7676/81...Trendline Resistance overhead
--------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7698-0.7709 / 0.7736 / 0.7780
S: 0.7666-46 / 0.7623-0.7600 / 0.7584-66
Currently the pair is trading below a crucial resistance at 0  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Monday September 5, 2005 - 11:15:00 GMT

Key Points
• EUR-USD runs into a little profit taking ahead of US holiday affected Monday session.

• USD remains on the back foot while EUR-USD stays above 1.2485.

• JPY looking good, but much will depend upon how the large undecided voter camp progresses this week  More...    More...



Can knowledge based industries keep driving UK growth?
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday September 5, 2005 - 11:09:00 GMT

Economics Weekly: Economic Research and Analysis--
Can knowledge based industries keep driving UK growth?

How important is manufacturing?
What is to be made of the continued decline in the share of the UK economy that is accounted for by the manufacturing sector? In the last few years, the manufacturing sector has been in and out of recession  More...    More...



US fears cushion Sterling
INVESTICA Ltd Monday September 5, 2005 - 09:59:09 GMT

Sterling continued to punish the dollar during Friday, although there was some evidence of resistance above 1.8440. Sterling remained firm against the Euro on Friday. Sterling secured fresh gains in early Europe on Monday with a push to 1.8490 as the dollar was sold again and the UK currency challenged levels stronger than 0  More...    More...


Weekly COT analysis courtesy Cumino
Global-View Sunday September 4, 2005 - 11:48:46 GMT

COT analysis courtesy Cumino



CLICK SAVE AND OPEN    More...



Forex: Dollar Looks Ahead to Smaller Payroll Gains in September
FXCM Friday September 2, 2005 - 21:05:06 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-02-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

· Dollar Looks Ahead to Smaller Payroll Gains in September
· Pound Soars on Strong Construction Data but Uncertainties Still Lie Ahead
· Market Looks Ahead to Busy Eurozone and Japanese Economic Calendars

US Dollar

The much awaited non-farm payrolls report that was released this morning was very mixed  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (2 September 2005)
GCI Financial Friday September 2, 2005 - 14:30:00 GMT



The euro added to recent gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2585 level and was supported around the $1.2465 level. Today’s intraday high represented the pair’s strongest print since 26 May of this year and was about 30 pips higher than the 38  More...    More...



Reflation trade?
Black Swan Capital Friday September 2, 2005 - 14:15:16 GMT

Quotable

How cheerfully he seems to grin,
How neatly spread his claws,
And welcomes little fishes in
With gently smiling jaws!

Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventure in Wonderland

FX Trading

Did someone really important, other than the market, wake up yesterday and yell: REFLATION TRADE?



A Fed on hurricane hold seems the budding consensus  More...    More...



Erratic trading likely
FX Today Friday September 2, 2005 - 12:55:18 GMT

The US employment growth was weaker than expected at 169,000, but the July increase was revised up to 242,000 from 207,000 previously and the unemployment rate fell to 4.9% from 5.0%. There will be some relief over the report, but concerns over US trends following hurricane Katrina will continue  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 02-09-05 ..... 1222 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday September 2, 2005 - 12:27:30 GMT

Aussie @ 0.7636/41....Squaring Long
---------------------------------------------
R: 0.7665 / 0.7684-89
S: 0.7639-24 / 0.7615-12
The Aussie is holding onto an uptrend on the 4-hour chart, with Support at 0.7639 and 0.7624. But, too much upside may be a little difficult to come by, with 0  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday September 2, 2005 - 10:51:14 GMT

Key Points
• Focus on Fed as situation deteriorates in hurricane affected US states.

• Rate cut is unlikely, but cannot be ruled out given the past record of the Greenspan Fed.

• Situation will need to deteriorate much further to warrant such a move, although gesture of leaving rates unchanged at Sept 20 meeting seems likely  More...    More...



Where next for the dollar?
INVESTICA Ltd Friday September 2, 2005 - 09:37:31 GMT

The dollar was unable to hold support at 1.2350 against the Euro and this weakened the dollar to near 1.24 ahead of the US data on Thursday. The ISM data generated another big move, 24 hours after the dollar's sharp drop after the Chicago index. The ISM index fell to 53  More...    More...


Forex Morning Meeting
FXstreet.com Friday September 2, 2005 - 09:32:37 GMT

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Dow Jones Index ended a bit down in yesterday’s session. Crude Oil around $69.50, resilient to even make a slight correction, though it is near the upper band of its current uptrend channel  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 2nd September 2005
FX-Strategy Friday September 2, 2005 - 01:05:23 GMT

Price: 1.8308

Resistance: 1.8325 ... 1.8350 ... 1.8364 ... 1.8389
Support....: 1.8295 ... 1.8274 ... 1.8244 ... 1.8215

Bias: While 1.8295 supports there is still risk of gains to 1.8389 but we feel this would cap if seen

Bullish: Breach of 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday September 1, 2005 - 21:28:14 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD rockets through 0.7000 again
Despite starting spring in a low key fashion during our local session yesterday, the NZD was soon to receive a boost overnight care of a weaker USD. NZD/USD opened around 0.6950 yesterday morning and did not move outside a 26 point range during our day, consolidating its gains from the previous day  More...    More...



Forex: A Possible Early End to Rate Hikes Sends Dollar Tumbling
FXCM Thursday September 1, 2005 - 21:27:56 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 09-01-05

· A Possible Early End to Rate Hikes Sends Dollar Tumbling
· Will Higher Oil Prices Tempt Europeans to Look For Euro-Denominated Oil?
· Yen Rallies on Growing Demand for Japanese Equities

US Dollar

The US dollar sold off strongly today as the market begins to consider the possibility that the Fed may not even raise rates to 4%  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (1 September 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday September 1, 2005 - 14:46:18 GMT



The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2415 level and was supported around the $1.2325 level. Technically, today’s high was above the 76.4% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



Dollar faces key test
FX Today Thursday September 1, 2005 - 14:37:05 GMT

The ISM index for the manufacturing sector was also weaker than expected with a drop to 53.6 in August from 56.6 the previous month even though the prices index rose strongly. The employment index was subdued. The report will further undermine dollar confidence and the stage is set for a challenge on August lows around 1  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 01-09-05 ..... 1223 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday September 1, 2005 - 12:28:27 GMT

Aussie @ 0.7562/67.....Strong resistance at 0.7608
---------------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7589-0.7607 / 0.7646
S: 0.7559-49 / 0.7527-01 / 0.7462
Earlier resistance at 0.7576 proving to be a strong resistance for he pair  More...    More...



Supply or damand: Volatility could hike up...
Black Swan Capital Thursday September 1, 2005 - 11:40:52 GMT

Quotable

“The ultimate paradox of maintaining proper trading psychology is to depersonalize what is, after all, an intensely personal activity.”

F.J. Chu, The Mind of the Market

FX Trading

Supply vs  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday September 1, 2005 - 10:37:13 GMT

Key Points
• USD remains on back foot ahead of ISM number.

• The tone of the ISM will dictate short-term USD sentiment.

• Market largely ignores European/UK data.

• ECB meeting, US core PCE prices, personal income and ISM feature today  More...    More...



Forex Morning Meeting - European Session
FXstreet.com Thursday September 1, 2005 - 10:21:32 GMT


Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. After a month of recess, we are back with our european session report. August has finished with the market eyeing again the vrude oil imparable rise, this time due to the katrina hurricane disaster  More...    More...



Global doubts support franc
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday September 1, 2005 - 09:49:20 GMT

The US currency hit selling pressure above the 1.27 level against the Swiss currency and weakened sharply to lows around 1.2525 in New York on Thursday before a marginal recovery. The Swiss currency remained firm against the Euro at close to 1.5475 and retained strength in early Europe on Thursday  More...    More...


Dollar continues to see-saw as traders worry over economic outlook…
CMC Markets Thursday September 1, 2005 - 07:01:12 GMT

September 1st - Downbeat US economic data and increasing concerns that initial estimates as to the damage caused by hurricane Katrina may now prove to be far too conservative have put the dollar under significant pressure in early trade. A quick spate of month end-profit taking may have also impacted matters after the recent rally presented this opportunity but right now the fundamentals do seem to be weighing  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 1st September 2005
FX-Strategy Thursday September 1, 2005 - 01:14:02 GMT

Price: 1.8017

Resistance: 1.8055 ... 1.8084 ... 1.8108 ... 1.8144
Support....: 1.8007 ... 1.7976 ... 1.7952 ... 1.7934

Bias: We look for a pullback to 1.7952-76 followed by a rally to the 1.8096-1.8108 area which should cap

Bullish: Although we did not expect the sharp reversal higher, we are quite confident of the revised structure and will not yet become strongly bullish  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday September 1, 2005 - 00:29:41 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: End of winter sees NZD uninspired
The local session was characteristically flat yesterday, a scene that has become common place during the month of August. The NZD traded a 40 point range during most of our day contained between 0  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Slides as Weak Chicago PMI and Gasoline Shortages Counter Release of Oil Reserves
FXCM Wednesday August 31, 2005 - 21:55:51 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 08-31-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.fxcm.com and www.dailyfx.com

- Dollar Slides as Weak Chicago PMI and Gasoline Shortages Counter Release of Oil Reserves
- Katrina Could Leave Hundreds of Thousands Jobless in September
- Global Consumer Consumption Beginning to Contract – Starting with Germany, Italy and Japan

US Dollar

The dollar sold off over 150 pips today against the euro  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (31 August 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday August 31, 2005 - 13:51:59 GMT



The euro fell marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2190 level and was capped around the $1.2230 level. Traders remain focused on the devastation of hurricane Katrina on the U.S. economy and its ability to produce oil in the gulf  More...    More...



Dollar headwinds
FX Today Wednesday August 31, 2005 - 13:01:11 GMT

The US revised GDP growth for the second quarter was very slightly below expectations at 3.3% while the core inflation indicators remained under control with a PCE reading of 1.6% and will not offer any dollar support. Market uncertainties over the impact of hurricane Katrina and the very high level of oil prices will continue in the short term  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 31-08-05 ..... 1213 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday August 31, 2005 - 12:18:04 GMT

Aussie @ 0.7456/61.....Watching now
----------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7478-93 / 0.7521-36 / 0.7560-86
S: 0.7460-55 / 0.7432-24 / 0.7400
The pair continues to test support at 0.7460-55 and a break below which may be bearish to 0  More...    More...



Forex:Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday August 31, 2005 - 11:16:40 GMT

Key Points
• Oil prices continue to cloud FX market perceptions.

• More soft AUD data, UK consumer confidence weaker.

• Canadian GDP could influence BoC rate hike expectations. US GDP and Chicago PMI also due.

Market Outlook
Monday saw a downgrade in the expected force of hurricane Katrina, but during the course of yesterday it became clear that the damage inflicted had been fairly devastating, raising fears about the price of insurance, especially for oil operators in the Gulf  More...    More...



Linkage back to the buck
Black Swan Capital Wednesday August 31, 2005 - 11:09:30 GMT

Quotable

“Capital markets have always been volatile, because they trade in nothing more than bets on the future, which is full of surprises.”

Peter L. Bernstein

FX Trading

From the Financial Times [our emphasis]: “Stephen Jen, currency economist at Morgan Stanley, warned that other Asian currencies could also now come under pressure [as a result of the problems in Indonesia]  More...    More...



Dollar uncertainties
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday August 31, 2005 - 09:52:22 GMT

The dollar strengthened to 1.2170 against the Euro during Tuesday, but was unable to sustain the gains and weakened back to 1.2215 in New York with little change in early Europe on Wednesday.

US consumer confidence was stronger than expected with an increase to 105  More...    More...



Yen under sustained pressure as Katrina weighs on input costs.
CMC Markets Wednesday August 31, 2005 - 08:16:45 GMT

August 31st - The release last night of FOMC meeting minutes has reinforced trader opinion that we’ll see at least two further rate hikes of 25 basis points each before the year is out and this has in turn lent further support to the dollar. Soaring oil prices are also putting pressure on the Asian currencies overnight with the Yen – as always – continuing to feel the pinch  More...    More...


Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday August 31, 2005 - 01:02:27 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD slips to 3 week low and business confidence down again
NZD/USD opened around 0.6920 yesterday morning after range trading the previous session. The currency spent the morning trading a tight 20 point range in a day devoid of local economic data  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 31st August 2005
FX-Strategy Wednesday August 31, 2005 - 00:55:10 GMT

Price: 1.7862

Resistance: 1.7875 ... 1.7906 ... 1.7928 ... 1.7951
Support....: 1.7835 ... 1.7817 ... 1.7790 ... 1.7756

Bias: While 1.7906-28 caps (max 1.7951) we look for losses to between 1.7723-56

Bullish: Losses seen as expected and we feel that even though there is already a bullish divergence that we should see losses continue today to the 1  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Rebound Limited as Katrina’s Wrath Proves Worst than Expected
FXCM Tuesday August 30, 2005 - 20:35:56 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 08-30-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

· Dollar Rebound Limited as Katrina’s Wrath Proves Worst than Expected
· Pound Slides on Weaker Data
· Yen Under Pressure on Larger Contraction in Household Spending

US Dollar

Even though the dollar is relatively unchanged since yesterday, we are already hearing more reliable word on the actual damage of Hurricane Katrina  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (30 August 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday August 30, 2005 - 14:44:43 GMT



The euro extended yesterday’s losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2170 level after encountering resistance around the $1.2235/ 40 level in Australasian dealing. Technically, the common currency stopped just short of testing a support level that represents the 23  More...    More...



Conflicting confidence reports
FX Today Tuesday August 30, 2005 - 14:37:01 GMT

US consumer confidence was stronger than expected at 105.6 in August from 103.6 the previous month, contradicting the evidence of the Michigan survey last month. This will help improve confidence over the raft of data this week and the markets will want to buy dollars on yield considerations  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 30-08-05 ..... 1150 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday August 30, 2005 - 11:55:34 GMT

Aussie @ 0.7480/85.....Strong resistance at 0.7513-31
------------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7531-47 / 0.7554-64 / 0.7579-94
S: 0.7474-60 / 0.7448-32 / 0.7400
The resistance at 0.7513-31 still remains a crucial level today  More...    More...



Good $ price action...
Black Swan Capital Tuesday August 30, 2005 - 11:21:12 GMT

Quotable

“Listen to what the market is saying about others, not what others are saying about the market.”

Richard Wyckoff
FX Trading

One thing we thought stuck out yesterday—among all the other things—was good dollar price action relative to the news  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday August 30, 2005 - 10:51:42 GMT

Key Points
• USD retains yesterday’s gains, but oil price background continues to create uncertainty.

• USD-JPY has some upside risk while above 110.80.

• Weak CBI retail survey/consumer credit leave GBP weaker.

• US consumer confidence and FOMC minutes feature today  More...    More...



How long can bond yields defy gravity?
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Tuesday August 30, 2005 - 10:14:24 GMT

Economics Weekly: Economic Research and Analysis: How long can bond yields defy gravity?

Bonds are bid
In the last few months, there has been a sharp rise in equities but also a sharp rise in bond prices (bond yields have therefore fallen)  More...    More...



Sterling growth fears
INVESTICA Ltd Tuesday August 30, 2005 - 09:58:22 GMT

Sterling pushed back to 1.8070 against the US currency in early Europe on Monday as the dollar came under pressure, but the gains were reversed later in the day and Sterling weakened back to 1.7925 in New York, retaining a weaker tone in early Europe on Tuesday  More...    More...


Dollar finds upside as Katrina skirts New Orleans; damage could have been far worse
CMC Markets Tuesday August 30, 2005 - 07:29:52 GMT

August 30th - Hurricane Katrina made landfall without causing quite as much damage as had been earlier predicted although the insurance bill is still expected to be significant. However, oil prices have started to retreat away from the $70 mark and this – combined with a general lack of upbeat economic news from elsewhere – has sent the greenback higher across the board in overnight trade  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 30th August 2005
FX-Strategy Tuesday August 30, 2005 - 00:04:31 GMT

Price: 1.2660

Resistance: 1.2688 ... 1.2718 ... 1.2750 ... 1.2785
Support....: 1.2632 ... 1.2615 ... 1.2580 ... 1.2560

Bias: While 1.2515-32 supports we look for gains to reach 1.2750-85

Bullish: Clearly the dip to 1  More...    More...



Forex: Katrina Downgraded to Category 1, Oil Prices Recede, US Dollar Rallies
FXCM Monday August 29, 2005 - 20:41:18 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 08-29-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Katrina Downgraded to Category 1, Oil Prices Recede, US Dollar Rallies
· BoE Continues to Watch Inflation
· Oil Finally Taking a Toll on the Japanese Yen

US Dollar

To our sheer disbelief, the dollar has completely shrugged off the potential damage of Hurricane Katrina  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (29 August 2005)
GCI Financial Monday August 29, 2005 - 14:46:43 GMT



The euro was marginally stronger vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2345 level and remained supported around the $1.2280 level. Technically, today’s high was right at the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 29-08-05 ..... 1230 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday August 29, 2005 - 12:40:50 GMT

Aussie @ 0.7538/43…Indecisive between 0.7585-0.7540
------------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7561-76 / 0.7587-0.7606 / 0.7613-24
S: 0.7530 / 0.7511-0.7494 / 0.7460
The pair trades indecisive between 0.7585-0.7540 so far the day  More...    More...



China syndrome...
Black Swan Capital Monday August 29, 2005 - 11:10:25 GMT

Quotable

“A man may know what to do and lose money if he doesn’t do it quickly enough.”

Jesse Livermore

FX Trading

In Nineteen Eighty-Four, George Orwell wrote: “Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past  More...    More...



Dollar, Yen, slip on high oil price
CMC Markets Monday August 29, 2005 - 07:15:14 GMT

August 29th - Despite softening US consumer confidence, Greenspan’s comments on Friday underlined the prospect of further rate hikes out of the US in the coming months and as a result the dollar has slipped in recent trade against both the Euro and Pound. Without doubt, surging oil prices remain a significant factor in this shift and as crude now trades past $70 a barrel – spurred on by production worries on the back of Hurricane Katrina – one of the few currencies the dollar is gaining any ground on is the Yen  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 29th August 2005
FX-Strategy Sunday August 28, 2005 - 07:23:24 GMT

Price: 1.2580

Resistance: 1.2590 ... 1.2621 ... 1.2640 ... 1.2673
Support....: 1.2568 ... 1.2552 ... 1.2518 ... 1.2485

Bias: While 1.2617-21 could stall any initial gains we look for 1.2550-70 to support and for a move to the 1  More...    More...



Dollar Recoups Gains but Market Begins to Contemplate Greenspan Departure
FXCM Friday August 26, 2005 - 20:47:15 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 08-26-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.fxcm.com and www.dailyfx.com
strategist@dailyfx.com

· Dollar Recoups Gains but Market Begins to Contemplate Greenspan Departure
· Good UK Data Pares Back Market Expectations for Further Rate Cut
· Yen Gives Back Gains as Rumors of More Chinese Revaluation is Denied by PBoC

US Dollar - After sliding against the Euro in the early US trading session, the dollar managed to recuperate most of its losses as oil prices retraced on easing concerns for the potential damage of Hurricane Katrina  More...    More...



FX Briefing 26 August 2005
BHF-Bank Friday August 26, 2005 - 18:35:49 GMT

Highlights
- Favourable opinion polls for prime minister Koizumi support the yen
- Friendly economic data and German elections strengthen the euro

September promises to be eventful
Last week’s rapid recovery of the dollar to USD 1  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (26 August 2005)
GCI Financial Friday August 26, 2005 - 14:24:24 GMT



The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2335 level and was supported around the $1.2280 level. Stops were reached above the $1.2315/ 20 level, representing the 50% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



Financial Tasadays
Foreign Exchange Analytics Friday August 26, 2005 - 13:50:08 GMT

For those not old enough to remember 1971, there was a captivating story out of the Philippines involving the "discovery" of a stone age people in a remote rainforest in Mindanao in the southern end of the archipelago. As a rather idealistic youth at the time fascinated with notions of utopian society (about as popular as the hula hoop in the 50's), the Tasaday were living proof that people lived in a Garden of Eden, in our time, without words for want, fear, need, greed and war  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 26-08-05 ..... 1240 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday August 26, 2005 - 12:45:32 GMT

Aussie @ 0.7590/95....Buy dip for minor rise
--------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7603-0.7611-26 / 1.7661-88
S: 0.7585 / 0.7573-63 / 0.7522 / 0.7498
Aussie has been consolidating between 0.7570-7617 for the last several hours, narrowing down into 0  More...    More...



Fed policy in focus
INVESTICA Ltd Friday August 26, 2005 - 12:36:17 GMT

Trading volumes are likely to fall sharply during Friday with markets aiming to trigger stop-loss levels. This could lead to erratic trading if the market manages to break support levels. In particular, a break above the 1.2330-1.2350 Euro resistance band would be significant  More...    More...


Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday August 26, 2005 - 11:39:29 GMT

Key Points
• USD marking time, UK Bank holiday looms…

• Greenspan gives his “Reflections on Central Banking" today, unlikely to be market relevant.

• Consensus for next week’s US payrolls is 200k.

• The final reading of the August U  More...    More...



Thinking about interest rates...
Black Swan Capital Friday August 26, 2005 - 11:35:27 GMT

Key News

• The U.K. economy grew 0.5 % in the second quarter, faster than previously estimated. (Bloomberg)
• Japanese postal reform asset reallocation estimate: Citigroup estimates a change in ownership would drain $1.375 trillion out of Japanese bonds, including JGBs and municipal and corporate debt, as either new management searches for more lucrative investments or customers shift their business elsewhere  More...    More...



Euro recovers recent losses against dollar but further direction difficult to find
CMC Markets Friday August 26, 2005 - 09:15:56 GMT

August 26th - Currency markets have – as was widely expected – spent the week struggling to establish any cohesive direction as fluctuating oil prices and a lack of economic data took their toll on the market. As a result there’s been little in the way of any trends established over the last few days although the Euro has managed to recover its recent losses against the dollar  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 26th August 2005
FX-Strategy Friday August 26, 2005 - 00:50:24 GMT

Price: 1.2282

Resistance: 1.2321 ... 1.2343 ... 1.2373 ... 1.2415
Support....: 1.2263 ... 1.2248 ... 1.2224 ... 1.2200

Bias: While 1.2275-86 supports there is a possibility of a move to 1.2343-73 but we look for the stronger decline to begin soon

Bullish: Since preparing the chart image we have seen a break of 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Friday August 26, 2005 - 00:48:50 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: Widening trade deficit weighs on NZD
New Zealand's trade deficit continued to widen in July coming in at $617mn, worse than market expectations of a $522mn deficit. The worrying sign is the underperformance of NZ's exports, specifically dairy exports, which remain firmly in negative territory  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Discounts Claims Data
FXCM Thursday August 25, 2005 - 20:43:55 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 08-25-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Dollar Discounts Claims Data
· Euro Shrugs off IFO Report as Expectations Increase
· Inflation Expected to Tick Higher in Japan

US Dollar

The US dollar continued to lose ground against the euro despite some encouraging labor market data  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (25 August 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday August 25, 2005 - 15:59:14 GMT



The euro was flat vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2320 level and was supported around the $1.2255 level. The pair briefly tested offers above the 50% retracement level of the move from $1  More...    More...



Sterling at risk from debt levels
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday August 25, 2005 - 14:15:11 GMT

The UK economy is liable to suffer an extended period of below-par growth as the housing-market excesses will need to be worked out. The burden of high debt levels will undermine consumer spending growth with the manufacturing sector likely to remain weak  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 25-08-05 ..... 1144 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday August 25, 2005 - 12:00:00 GMT



Aussie @ 0.7596/0.7601...Crucial resistance at 0.7635
-----------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7627-48 / 1.7715
S: 0.7583-73 / 0.7567-58 / 0.7537
The pair has tested the resistance level of 07617-35 and has seen a
minor dip to 0  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday August 25, 2005 - 11:44:26 GMT

Key Points
• USD under pressure overnight...

• Germany’s Ifo survey disappoints, sliding on disappointment over the current economic climate.

• Japan’s top business lobby to throw its weight behind Koizumi’s campaign.

Market Outlook
0 The EUR-USD pushed up to 1  More...    More...



Money moving "stuff"
Black Swan Capital Thursday August 25, 2005 - 11:35:33 GMT

Quotable

“Everything’s got a moral, if you can only find it.”

Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland



FX Trading

Besides the market, there are plenty of other things that keep us humble each day  More...    More...



Long-term dollar risks?
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday August 25, 2005 - 10:04:09 GMT

The dollar weakened after the durable goods data and trading was choppy. The dollar fell to a low of 1.2275 and, after a rebound to 1.2235 triggered in part by hedge-fund buying, the dollar weakened back to 1.2270. Trading patterns in Asia were similar with the dollar weakening to 1  More...    More...


Dollar under fire as oil touches $68 a barrel
CMC Markets Thursday August 25, 2005 - 07:29:51 GMT

August 25th - Despite comments from the Fed reiterating the fact that inflationary pressures need to be carefully managed - essentially through tighter monetary policy – the dollar has slumped overnight as concerns over the impact of high oil prices and a downturn in US durable goods orders weigh across the board  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 25th August 2005
FX-Strategy Thursday August 25, 2005 - 00:33:29 GMT

Price: 1.2262

Resistance: 1.2293 ... 1.2316 ... 1.2340 ... 1.2369
Support....: 1.2240 ... 1.2227 ... 1.2206 ... 1.2160

Bias: We look for 1.2293-00 to cap and for losses back to 1.2200-06 at least and possibly 1.2160

Bullish: Price proved more whippy than expected but overall we feel the pattern of a corrective rally remains but is close to a potential high which we feel will now be in the 1  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday August 24, 2005 - 22:44:55 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD defies the odds
NZD/USD looked like it was heading lower yesterday but again showed its resilience and rallied to a weekly high. The Japanese strength that supported the NZD earlier in the week suddenly deserted the market amongst rumours of Japanese bank stock downgrades  More...    More...



Dollar Takes a Nose-dive on Durable Goods and Oil
FXCM Wednesday August 24, 2005 - 21:25:14 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 08-24-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Dollar Takes a Nose-dive on Durable Goods and Oil
· British Pound Holds Steady Despite Weaker CBI Report
· Koizumi Announces Plan to Step Down in 2006

US Dollar

The market had been waiting for the US durable goods orders all week and today’s release confirmed our suspicion that things aren’t that rosy here in the US  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (24 August 2005)
GCI Financial Wednesday August 24, 2005 - 14:50:10 GMT



The euro reversed course and gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2280 level after trawling for bids around the $1.2160 level. The move to intraday highs was precipitated by a surprisingly sharp fall in July U  More...    More...



Durables jolt for dollar
FX Today Wednesday August 24, 2005 - 13:15:16 GMT

US durable goods orders fell by a much sharper than expected 4.9% for July after a revise 1.9% June increase and there was an underlying 3.2% drop. This will be a jolt for the dollar, even though the underlying growth has still been firm over the past few months, and the data will create some doubts over the economy  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 24-08-05 ..... 1155 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday August 24, 2005 - 12:01:52 GMT

Aussie @ 0.7545/50....Ranged between 0.7494-0.7573
---------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7570-94 / 0.7602-25 / 0.7648-57
S: 0.7520 / 0.7500-0.7489 / 0.7449-24
The supports at 0.7500-0.7495 have provided a minor bounce back to 0  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Wednesday August 24, 2005 - 12:00:04 GMT

Key Points
• US durable goods orders top the billing today, consensus is for a decline of 1.5% in July.

• European industrial new orders rebounded, in line with Tuesday’s stronger ZEW survey.

• UK’s August CBI manufacturing order balance deteriorated to –29, the worst since October 2003  More...    More...



Another crude currency relationship
Black Swan Capital Wednesday August 24, 2005 - 11:03:55 GMT

Quotable

“We conclude that the concentration of wealth is natural and inevitable, and is periodically alleviated by violent or peaceable partial redistribution. In this view all economic history is the slow heartbeat of the social organism, a vast systole and diastole of concentrating wealth and compulsive recirculation  More...    More...



Sterling struggles for support
INVESTICA Ltd Wednesday August 24, 2005 - 10:21:01 GMT

Sterling pushed to just above 1.80 against the dollar, but was still not looking entirely convincing above this level on Tuesday. Sterling edged stronger to 0.6785 against the Euro, but failed to hold the gains in early Europe on Wednesday and Sterling weakened to 1  More...    More...


Greenback edges higher in uninspiring market
CMC Markets Wednesday August 24, 2005 - 07:52:45 GMT

August 24th - The dollar has evidently firmed up against a number of currencies on overnight trade although remains largely rangebound as the shortage of economic data appears to be preventing any bigger break out at this time. Oil prices dipped below the $66 mark although this hasn’t been sustainable as concerns mount over another tropical storm that’s developing in the Gulf of Mexico, whilst expectations for a less then inspiring set of inventory numbers later in the session are also serving to boost crude  More...    More...


Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 24th August 2005
FX-Strategy Wednesday August 24, 2005 - 00:43:54 GMT

Price: 109.97

Resistance: 110.15 ... 110.30 ... 110.50 ... 110.83
Support....: 109.68 ... 109.39 ... 109.03 ... 108.80

Bias: We look for 109.58-68 to continue supporting for a move to 110.30-50

Bullish: Yesterday's price movement, while holding our 109  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday August 23, 2005 - 21:48:52 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD range-trades in flat market
Tuesday proved to be an uninteresting day for the currency markets with the antipodean currencies stuck in tight ranges. The NZD was contained to a 25bps range during the local session, trading between 0  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Bulls Keep an Eye on Housing Market
FXCM Tuesday August 23, 2005 - 21:31:54 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 08-23-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Dollar Bulls Keep an Eye on Housing Market
· Euro Rallies on Strong Investor Confidence
· Yen Gives Back Gains on Profit Taking

US Dollar

Unlike yesterday when we had a completely empty US economic calendar, today we had the release of existing home sales for the month of July  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (23 August 2005)
GCI Financial Tuesday August 23, 2005 - 15:13:09 GMT



The euro depreciated marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the $1.2190 level after testing offers around the $1.2250/ 55 level. Technically, the common currency was capped today around the 23  More...    More...



Dollar looking for fresh incentives
FX Today Tuesday August 23, 2005 - 14:19:02 GMT

Existing home sales dipped to 7.16mn in July, but this should not have a major impact. The markets are struggling to find direction as trading volumes remain low. The dollar has found further support at 1.2250 against the Euro and the US currency also survived a strong German ZEW report  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 23-08-05 ..... 1205 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday August 23, 2005 - 12:13:03 GMT

Aussie @ 0.7553/8....Could go either way
----------------------------------------
R: 0.7572-78 / 0.7593-0.7604 / 0.7611-27
S: 0.7541-36 / 0.7492 / 0.7449-24
The Aussie has been moving sideways between 0.7536-7572 since yesterday  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Tuesday August 23, 2005 - 11:36:30 GMT

Key Points
• Germany’s ZEW survey surged to 50 in August. The Eurozone ZEW also rose.

• JPY dips, despite new highs in the Nikkei.

• US existing home sales and the weekly ABC survey are due today.

Market Outlook
EUR-USD eked out gains in early European trading, hovering below the 1  More...    More...



Where is the $?
Black Swan Capital Tuesday August 23, 2005 - 10:17:05 GMT

Quotable

“It takes months and even years for monetary policy to affect what happens in the real economy, Milton Friedman taught an entire generation of economics students. And although every central banker on the globe pays lip service to this verity, they still are guided more by backward-looking indicators, such as how many people found jobs last month, than forward-looking ones, such as markets  More...    More...



Nikkei dominates yen
INVESTICA Ltd Tuesday August 23, 2005 - 09:57:53 GMT

The dollar weakened to a low of 109.4 against the yen on Monday before recovering back to 109.75. The yen also strengthened to a high of 133.6 against the Euro before retreating back to 134.2 and the Euro extended gains to 134.6 in early Europe on Tuesday with the yen trading close to the 110  More...    More...


German economic data in focus as traders search for direction
CMC Markets Tuesday August 23, 2005 - 07:40:27 GMT

August 23rd - Yet again it’s set to be another quiet day on the economic calendar and as a result currency markets may find direction difficult to come by, although data released from Germany this morning is at least offering Euro traders a degree of focus  More...    More...


Forex: A dark cloud continues to hang over the EUR/USD at 1.2250
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Tuesday August 23, 2005 - 03:44:27 GMT

Market Recap

The US dollar was flat against the euro ahead of forecast firm Euro zone data and with a strong Nikkei and political factors favouring the yen. The dollar's softness against the yen helped push the euro back up toward an important technical area of $1  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 23rd August 2005
FX-Strategy Tuesday August 23, 2005 - 01:10:38 GMT

Price: 109.66

Resistance: 109.97 ... 110.30 ... 110.62 ... 110.83
Support....: 109.58 ... 109.39 ... 109.03 ... 108.80

Bias: We look for 109.39-58 to support and for gains back above 109.97 to 110.30 at least and possibly 110  More...    More...



Forex: Euro Surges on Sharp Increases in Capital Inflow
FXCM Monday August 22, 2005 - 21:41:22 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 08-22-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Euro Surges on Sharp Increases in Capital Inflow
· Dollar Loses Value as Economists Predict Oil Induced Contraction in Growth
· Yen Rallies as Koizumi Gains in the Polls

US Dollar

The dollar has lost ground against the euro, which comes as no surprise to those of us that are watching the markets with only a mild interest  More...    More...



Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday August 22, 2005 - 21:18:07 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: Japanese investors give NZD a foothold
Yen strength and Japanese investors chasing high yields helped underpin the NZD on Monday. Early on it seemed the previous weeks trend was to prevail as the NZD moved from 0.6940 to 0.6921 during NZ's morning  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (22 August 2005)
GCI Financial Monday August 22, 2005 - 14:36:39 GMT



The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2240 level and was supported around the $1.2155 level. Stops were triggered above the $1.2210 level, representing the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1  More...    More...



Dollar near key support
FX Today Monday August 22, 2005 - 13:17:05 GMT

The dollar has lost support around 1.2185 and has weakened to 1.2235 against the Euro, while the dollar has also weakened to 109.50 against the yen. Technical factors will tend to dominate in the short term, especially with a lack of US data. Overall, the dollar should be able to find solid support at the 1  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 22-08-05 ..... 1220 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday August 22, 2005 - 12:29:55 GMT

Aussie @ 0.7555/60....Further rise towards 0.7616?
-----------------------------------------------
R: 0.7575-83 / 0.7603-12 / 0.7630
S: 0.7525 / 0.7474 / 0.7434
Contrary to expectation, 0.7554 did not serve as a resistance and the Aussie rose to 0  More...    More...



Are euro rationales solid?
Black Swan Capital Monday August 22, 2005 - 12:11:58 GMT

Quotable

“The real problem is the US economy is just too leveraged. Starting with the housing industry, the country is too dependent on derivatives markets to create the illusion that interest rate risk can be conjured away.”

John Dizard

FX Trading


The technical damage to the euro last week appeared to signal the end of dollar “correction,” setting the stage for a dollar move to new highs later in the year  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Monday August 22, 2005 - 11:47:12 GMT

Key Points
• JPY pushing higher after poll shows Koizumi’s popularity climbing.

• USD consolidating, no data to look to today…

• Canadian June retail sales due, likely to reboundafter the weakness in May.

Market Outlook
A new poll over the weekend showed further signs that PM Koizumi’s popularity is rising and that has helped to bolster the JPY  More...    More...



UK consumer price inflation hits record high
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday August 22, 2005 - 10:29:14 GMT

Economics Weekly: Economic Research and Analysis: UK consumer price inflation hits record high

Worrying rise in price inflation
The economic commentary this week will focuson the bigger than expected rise in UK consumer price inflation, which took it to its highest rate since it began to be calculated on this basis in 1997  More...    More...



Technical trading to domiante
INVESTICA Ltd Monday August 22, 2005 - 09:49:34 GMT

The dollar strengthened to a high of 1.2130 against the Euro on Friday, but was unable to break this level on two occasions and the US currency weakened back to 1.2160 in New York. The dollar weakened to 1.2180 in early Europe on Friday as trading remained tentative with low liquidity levels  More...    More...


Quiet week on economic calendar stands to bolster volatility; ECB rates in focus
CMC Markets Monday August 22, 2005 - 07:47:00 GMT

August 22nd - With little on the economic calendar in the coming days, currency markets may well find themselves in something of a choppy mood. Last week’s attempts by the dollar to rally have been partially successful although resistance is now being seen across the board, more than likely in response to the jump back towards $66 a barrel for oil  More...    More...


Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Sunday August 21, 2005 - 22:40:35 GMT

New Zealand Dollar: NZD quietly drifts lower
NZD/USD had a subdued day on Friday and finished the week off in the manner it started by continuing to move lower. There were few economic data releases to spark any FX volatility on Friday so the market traded on technicals  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 22nd August 2005
FX-Strategy Sunday August 21, 2005 - 08:18:36 GMT

Price: 1.7963

Resistance: 1.7976 ... 1.7990 ... 1.8026 ... 1.8057
Support....: 1.7937 ... 1.7913 ... 1.7889 ... 1.7846

Bias: While 1.7976-90 caps we look for a move below 1.7889 and into the 1.7800-30 target area

Bullish: Losses didn't quite reach our target  More...    More...



FX Briefing 19 August 2005
BHF-Bank Saturday August 20, 2005 - 10:46:33 GMT

FX Briefing 19 August 2005

Highlights
- Forex markets believe in robust US economy, bond markets show concern
- Higher energy prices push up US inflation, but core rate remains stable
- Up trend in US industry is intact

Dollar recovers after solid economic signals
The US currency has advanced again since the US trade balance figures were released last Friday  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar Expected to Remain Rangebound Next Week
FXCM Friday August 19, 2005 - 21:31:26 GMT

DailyFX Forex Market Report 08-19-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

· Dollar Expected to Remain Rangebound Next Week
· Eurozone Trade Surplus Surges
· Oil Prices on the Rise Once Again

US Dollar

There was a lot of whipsaw price action in the dollar today despite the lack of US economic releases  More...    More...



Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 19-08-05 ..... 1126 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday August 19, 2005 - 12:19:19 GMT


Euro @ 1.2181/84....Cautiously Short
-----------------------------------
R: 1.2190-98 / 1.2225-28 / 1.2252-68
S: 1.2158 / 1.2131-26 / 1.2076
The Euro fell below 1.2150 to see a low near 1.2126. That should have brought in fresh selling, but it bounced back up to 1  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Friday August 19, 2005 - 12:01:40 GMT

Key Points
• Could be a quiet session after a steep move in the USD, with no economic triggers today.
• Oil regaining some ground on Ecuadorian and Nigerian supply concerns.
• French GDP was confirmed up 0.1%, in line with the “flash estimate”  More...    More...



Is crude oil driving the euro?
Black Swan Capital Friday August 19, 2005 - 11:28:09 GMT

Quotable

“The chaos of the events in the external world can be selected and analyzed into linear sequence, and valid inferences can well be made from this particular selection and construction—this is the way in which we usually operate, especially in science  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (19 August 2005)
GCI Financial Friday August 19, 2005 - 10:36:49 GMT



The euro lost marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2125 level and was unable to move above the $1.2190 level. The dollar stopped just short of testing its strongest level dating to 1 August and stops were reached below the $1  More...    More...



Risk aversion vital for Swiss franc
INVESTICA Ltd Friday August 19, 2005 - 10:12:25 GMT

Confidence in the US dollar will remain firm in the short term with further market buying interest. The franc will, however, gain some support from the greater speculation over a domestic tightening. Any sustained increase in risk aversion would also offer strong support to the Swiss franc  More...    More...


Dollar remains in favour but will lack of economic news serve to stem rally?
CMC Markets Friday August 19, 2005 - 07:52:27 GMT

August 19th - The dollar has continued to grind higher through overnight trade, spurred on by the release of some better than expected US factory data which is yet again underlining the fact that the Fed’s hawkish stance on monetary policy will now likely remain through to the end of 2005  More...    More...


Forex: Ok, so I was wrong, but i'm sure I wasn't alone.
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Friday August 19, 2005 - 05:07:20 GMT

Market Recap

The US dollar was softer in Sydney morning trade against the euro and yen as traders locked in profits while expecting further gains ahead for the dollar. A solid August Philadelphia Federal Reserve Activity Index, standing at 17  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 19th August 2005
FX-Strategy Friday August 19, 2005 - 01:10:52 GMT

Price: 1.7923

Resistance: 1.7961 ... 1.7986 ... 1.8002 ... 1.8020
Support....: 1.7913 ... 1.7894 ... 1.7846 ... 1.7820

Bias: While price remains below 1.7986-00 we look for losses to 1.7780-1.7820

Bullish: At least we have seen the expected break lower and there should be more  More...    More...



Forex: Dollar – Can the Rally Last?
FXCM Thursday August 18, 2005 - 21:55:35 GMT

DailyFX Fundamentals 08-18-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Dollar – Can the Rally Last?
· Euro Extends Weeklong Downtrend
· Pound Slides Despite Better Retail Sales

US Dollar
The dollar grinded higher once again against the Euro  More...    More...



Can the dollar strengthen further?
FX Today Thursday August 18, 2005 - 13:26:22 GMT

The US jobless claims increased to 316,000, but this will not have a significant impact. The dollar is continuing to probe resistance levels against major currencies, including the Euro, Sterling and Australian dollar. On a very short term, view, there now looks to be the potential for a slight dollar correction weaker from, but there is likely to be fresh dollar buying interest on corrections back towards 1  More...    More...


Fx-Thoughts for the day - Evening -18-08-05 ..... 1149 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday August 18, 2005 - 11:53:51 GMT


Euro @ 1.2210/13.....Targets 1.2180-75?
--------------------------------------
R: 1.2238-50 / 1.2276 / 1.2301-28
S: S: 1.2217 / 1.2190 / 1.2179-58
Contrary to expectation, the market paid no heed to earlier support at 1  More...    More...



$ Correction over?
Black Swan Capital Thursday August 18, 2005 - 11:50:16 GMT

Quotable

“Crude oil, once seen as a wealth-creating blessing for mankind, is fast turning into the devil’s tears.”

Lutz Kleveman, The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia


FX Trading

Is the “dollar correction,” which appeared to begin in early July, over? We posted this chart of the US $ Index recently in Currency Currents  More...    More...



Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange Thursday August 18, 2005 - 11:09:54 GMT

Key Points
• USD remains on a firm footing, after gain in PPI

• The Philly Fed survey is due today, also likely to be supportive for the USD

• UK retail sales for July came in better than expected

Market Outlook
0 EUR-USD cleared 1  More...    More...



Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (18 August 2005)
GCI Financial Thursday August 18, 2005 - 10:37:39 GMT



The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2230 level and was capped around the $1.2290 level. Today’s low represents the common currency’s lowest level since 3 August and stops were triggered below the $1  More...    More...



Euro on the defensive
INVESTICA Ltd Thursday August 18, 2005 - 10:13:46 GMT

The dollar managed to push through the 1.23 level against the Euro and, although the performance was not entirely convincing, the dollar reached a high of 1.2260 in New York. The dollar has also pushed through 1.2250 in Europe today, increasing the chances of further short-term dollar gains

US producer prices rose more than expected in July, with a headline increase of 1  More...    More...



Oil in spotlight after inventory data inspires quick sell-off…
CMC Markets Thursday August 18, 2005 - 07:53:25 GMT

August 18th - There’s set to be a lot of speculation over oil prices in the coming hours after US light crude futures came off sharply overnight. This has the ability to impact on a number of currencies, especially those of the net oil importing countries such as Japan and the US but this is really only going to be meaningful if there’s any consensus that the $3 a barrel drop is at least sustainable  More...    More...


Forex: Where are all the USD Bears??
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange Thursday August 18, 2005 - 07:47:21 GMT

Market Recap

The dollar briefly struck a two-week high against the euro on news that US producer prices rose a larger-than-expected 1.0 pct in July due to higher prices for automobiles and gasoline

Adjusted to exclude volatile food and energy costs, the core rate of inflation at the wholesale level rose 0  More...    More...



Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 18th August 2005
FX-Strategy Thursday August 18, 2005 - 00:45:10 GMT

Price: 1.2623

Resistance: 1.2653 ... 1.2684 ... 1.2700 ... 1.2727
Support....: 1.2610 ... 1.2565 ... 1.2533 ... 1.2516

Bias: We look for 1.2653 to cap and for a pullback lower to the 1.2530-40 area

Bullish: Gains were seen directly yesterday and this has made its way to the 1  More...