The dollar rose against the euro but fell against the yen in the final trading day of 2007 on Monday, though dealers resisted making big bets until volume increases after New Year's Day.
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Over the last few weeks it seems the idea about a weakening U.K. economy is gaining traction. Answers to the credit crisis are few and far between; the question marks still take up most of the news... More...
The dollar took a beating across the board on Friday, as expected, and this weakness should continue on the last day of 2007 as well. Trading should be spotty at best, so trade only if you must... More...
On Wednesday, ISM manufacturing is expected to fall to a one year low of 50.5, just barely above the 50 boom/bust level, suggesting that conditions in the sector remain positive. However, More...
Overall market tone was quiet with germany, italy and Spain among th countries on holiday this session. The USD rebounded from opening level lows against the Euro More...
The dollar fell versus a basket of major currencies on Monday, keeping it on track for its worst annual performance in four years, as investors speculated that 2008 could bring slower U.S. economic growth and lower interest rates.
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New Years Day is the most universal of all the annual holidays. Some markets are closed today and most of the others are running partial day sessions.
USD bearisness from last week has carried into Monday trade. The GBP is higher vs. Europe.
November More...
The US dollar continued to weaken after news that the help wanted index dropped from 22 to 21 in the month of November and new homes sales fell to 12 year lows. More...
The Canadian dollar rose for the second straight week against the U.S. currency on Friday, but a bout of profit-taking yanked it back from the five-week high it hit earlier in the session. More...
U.S. housing market worsens
Japanese core CPI stronger More...
US Market Update Trade the News Staff Friday December 28, 2007 - 16:31:51 GMT
US equities reversed earlier gains following the soft New Home Sales data for the month of Nov. The headline reading of 647K units was the lowest since April 1995.
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Risk aversion remained high on Friday morning – a day after the assassination of former Pakistani PM Benazir Bhutto – as the greenback continues to crumble while the Euro and Swiss franc surged as traders sought the safe-haven of the day.
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The USD remained soft against the European currencies this session. Higher commodity prices and geopolitical factors were cited for the USD weakness. More...
The dollar was on track for its worst weekly performance in over a year on Friday, hit by soft U.S. data and a rise in risk aversion following the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.
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In the wake of the political crisis in Pakistan and ahead of the calendar yearend, traders have been reducing their risk profiles.
Weak U.S. economic data yesterday were also catalysts for further USD bearishness.
The assassination of Pakistani Presid More...
Europe returned back from the Christmas break and sold USD. Weak U.S. durble goods and employment data were catalysts for further bearisness.
The assassination of Pakistani Presidential candidate Bhutto spurred flight to safety demand for the EUR.
USD More...
The Canadian dollar rose on Thursday but closed just shy of a five-week high due largely toa rise in commodity prices after news that Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto had been assassinated More...
US Market Update Trade the News Staff Thursday December 27, 2007 - 18:10:16 GMT
US equities were lower by 0.75% in mid- morning trading following the soft Durable good data and resurfacing geo- political concerns. More...
Back to Basics Black Swan Capital Thursday December 27, 2007 - 13:09:19 GMT
Investors who actually returned from holiday yesterday saw the U.S. dollar take a hit – a nice gift for those who are still predicting the worst for the greenback ... More...
The yen fell to its lowest in around 1-1/2 months versus the euro on Thursday, as higher commodity prices lifted European equities and broadly boosted risk appetite in holiday-thinned markets More...
Europe is back today from the Christmas break. Pre-yearend activity is expected tp be cautious, although some will be looking to pre-position speculative positions ahead of the new year.
Today sees an active session for data from the U.S. A major focus More...
Dealer participation was very light on Wednesday with many key centers still out for the Christmas break.
Activity will pick up considerably on Thursday and Friday.
USD is closing sharply lower against the majors. The JPY is up modestly.
The commodi More...
The dollar was generally unchanged on Tuesday but managed to give back gains versus the pound on Christmas. With Europe still closed today, expect limited trading through Thursday... More...
We maintain the visceral belief that all prices are flawed because said prices are based on flawed future expectations. Future expectations are flawed because people ... More...
Dealer participation is light with many key centers still out for the Christmas break.
N.Y. staffing will be skeletal today. Activity should pick up on Thursday and Friday.
USD is lower against the majors. The JPY is steady.
The Nikkei closed higher More...
For the financial markets and the foreign exchange market in particular, 2007 was a year that gave everyone a much needed reality check. Over the past 6 years, the financial markets have become irrationally exuberant. More...
The Canadian dollar rode a waveof positive sentiment to close higher against the U.S. dollar
for a seventh straight session on Monday, helped by a rally in equities markets, higher oil prices and p More...
The yen dipped to a six-week low against the dollar on Monday and fell against the euro as a pre-Christmas equities rally boosted investors' risk appetite.
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2008 promises to be another interesting year. With significant variance in the range of forecasts on offer and fast changing perceptions of risk, financial markets could be in for a prolonged period of volatility. More...
Dealer participation is light into the Christmas break.
USD is mixed against the majors. The GBP is weaker.
Those Asian equity markets that were open closed up strongly. Open European equity markets will close early.
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD More...
The yen touched a six-week low versus the dollar and fell against the euro on Monday, as a pre-Christmas rally in equities made investors more willing to place risky bets funded by cheap borrowing in the Japanese unit. More...
The USD was mixrd in light trading. The GBP was softer as continued speculation that the BOE has the room to lower rates further. GBP/USD probing 1.9800 level. More...
As we were expecting, thin trading in the FX markets has left the majors within tight ranges, though Cable has started to test support at 1.9800 more aggressively while Euro has crept higher towards 1.4400. Nevertheless, More...
Holiday trading will be in full swing this upcoming week with the currency markets closed on 12/25 and 12/26. The only pieces of economic data due for release on Monday will be from Japan. We do not have any meaningful US data until Thursday. More...
Robust commodity prices and stronger-than-expected economic data combined to propel the Canadian dollar higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday.
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The dollar climbed to six-week peaks against the yen on Friday as investors waded back into carry trades amid a rally in U.S. stocks, but the greenback slipped versus the euro on profit-taking after recent gains.
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I bet you’d run out of fingers and toes if you had to add up all the times you’ve heard an economist or analyst expound on the many dangers of global imbalance. And of course it is all the fault of... More...
On the currency front the Yen is softer as equities move higher in the session. The Euro is off of its best levels following hawkish commentary from ECB members. More...
The dollar fell half a cent versus the euro on Friday as investors took profits on the U.S. currency's rally to two-month highs and thin end-of-year trading conditions exacerbated market volatility.
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A listless night of trade as the FX dealing world is quietly wrapping up business for 2007. Next week with Japan closed for Monday and Europe and North America closed for Christmas trading is likely More...
Dealer participation appears to be light into the Christmas break. A slew of U.S. data early today in the U.S. will likely be it until the latter half of next week.
USD is lower against the majors. The GBP is steady.
U.S. equity markets are seen openi More...
Many people may realize that this week, Time Magazine announced their pick for Person of the Year. Yet few probably realize that the Canadian edition of the magazine also announced their Newsmaker of the Year. More...
The yen advanced on Thursday, buoyed by the view that the U.S. economy has yet to see the worst of the subprime mortgage crisis after investment bank Bear Stearns reported its first-ever quarterly loss.
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The Canadian dollar ended the North American session above parity with the U.S. dollar on Thursday as investors tied up loose ends before the holidays.
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USD is closing higher against the majors. The GBP is under heavy pressure again. End of yesr flows?
U.S. data did not trigger major price moves. Trade is winding down for the year. Many institutions have already closed their books.
U.S. equity markets More...
The Euro was hit after an index of German business sentiment came in close to a one-year low, prompting investors to increase year-end Dollar buying. Large institutional investors helped pushed ... More...
The Central Banks are wrapped up in their own version of the Winter Games and we wonder if there are any investors still around to take notice. Despite all the action, thin holiday trading has ... More...
GBP-USD has once again fallen during the day and it hit a low of 1.9879. It continues to be in a bearish trend and now while below 2.0200, the pair could target 1.9650 over the next few weeks. More...
On the currency front the Yen is decoupling from its usual equity market relationship after the PBOC raised interest rates. The Dollar maintained its firm tone as growth headwinds emerged on the European economic front More...
The dollar rose to two-month highs against the euro and a basket of major currencies on Thursday, bolstered by investors repatriating funds and covering of short positions in the U.S. currency before year-end.
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A relatively quiet night in currency trade as speculative flows are clearly winding down for the year and further profit taking in EURUSD continues. The greenback strengthened moderately into the London open with the pound losing another 100 points as the More...
EUR/USD remains on the defensive as it continues to struggle in attempts to reverse the current pre-yearend bearish momentum. This follows a new low More...
There is little on the U.S. calendar likely to trigger major price moves today. Trade is winding down for the year. Many institutions have already closed their books.
U.S. equity markets are now seen opening higher later. Fixed income prices are weaker. More...
$/yen continues to trade within 112.50-113.50 and this has left the dollar elsewhere to bear the brunt of cross offsets. This has seen$/yen consolidate while firmer yen crosses pressure the dollar higher More...
As 2007 draws to a close, the US dollar is making a nice comeback. Since December 1st, when “The Panic about the Dollar” was the headline on the front page of the Economist More...
The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday but stayed within a tight range, as illiquid markets before the holidays kept investors from making any big moves.
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The dollar rose against the euro and surged to a three-month peak against sterling on Wednesday amid signs that financial market turmoil was starting to threaten economic growth beyond U.S. borders.
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A number of mortgage insurer and other credit downgrades were largely taken in stride, but they were a modest weight on equities this afternoon.
U.S. equity markets ended modestly lower. Fixed income prices are higher.
Fed TAF auction results not gree More...
Currency markets are likely to remain thin and choppy, with traders starting to down tools for the Christmas period. There is still a great deal of uncertainty about how the funding squeeze will pan out More...
Mortgage insurer dowgrades coukd weigh in equities this afternoon.
Fed TAF auction results not greeted positively. Suggest LIBOR premia are here for a while.
The ECB drained EUR133.6bln in a one-day fine tuning operation after yesterday's massive add. More...
BOJ decision due Thursday. Policy seen on hold.
U.K. calendar full.
U.S. calendar a mixed bag.
Crude oil inventories fell by a lot more than expected. Decline blamed on weather.
December German Ifo data weaker than expected. More...
Monday saw the expected profit taking in dollars and I wouldn’t be surprised if Tuesday will see more of the same. Tuesday will see the release of the housing starts and building permits report... More...
ECB injects 348 billion euros at 4.21%; BoE injects only £10billion. The Bank of Japan begins the final policy meeting of the year today with Governor Fukui clearly concerned about the effects... More...
GBP-USD has had a sharp fall during the day after the MPC minutes revealed vote split of 9-0 verdict for a rate cut, and with that it seems to have convincingly broken its important levels near 2.0130 More...
In currency trading the Yen is currently firmer on the back of softer equity markets, which are low as the unanimous BOE vote seemed to underscore the seriousness of the financial market turmoil. More...
The dollar held firm near a seven-week high against the euro on Wednesday as traders covered short positions in the U.S. currency before they close their books at the end of the year.
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The ECB has drained EUR133.6bln in a one-day fine tuning operation after yesterday's massive add. 3mo Euribor was fixed early at 4.812%, -6.4bps. Aim was to drain EUR150 bln
Pre-holiday thin markets have arrived.
USD is mixed vs. the majors. The EUR/U More...
No first-tier U.S. data due. Oil inventories are slated.
December German Ifo data weaker than expected.
BOE Meeting minutes indicate 9-0 vote for a rate cut at its recent meeting.. More...
Tonight’s release of the BoE minutes revealed that all nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to cut rates in December stating that the “downside risks to the economy outweighed near-term concerns about higher inflation.”
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$/yen testing its downside out of firmer yen crosses but so far trading an inside day, by holding just 2 pips above yesterday’s low. This essentially leaves it trading within 112.50-113.50, a narrow range that will not last long More...
EUR/USD has so far traded an inside day for the second day in a row as it continues to consolidate above Monday’s 1.4330 low. This has seen its range narrow further as crosses pull on both sides More...
The US dollar remained almost exactly unchanged against major forex counterparts, as dismal Housing Starts data and noteworthy Fed speeches had little effect through uneventful currency trading. More...
The ECB opened the spigots and flooded the markets with cash through yearend. This infusion took the pressure off LIBOR rates across the board.
Pre-holiday thin markets have arrived.
Many are looking for direction in. GBP weaker following softer than More...
Volatility over the Christmas period and a softer tone to recent economic data are likely to keep the NZD under pressure in the short term. Recent market movements are the flipside of the ‘hope’ trade: it was the hope of sharply lower interest rates t More...
Monday saw the expected profit taking in dollars and I wouldn’t be surprised if Tuesday will see more of the same. Tuesday will see the release of the housing starts and building permits report... More...
Pre-holiday thin markets have arrived.
Many are looking for direction in the majors. GBP weaker following softer than expected U.K. inflation data, which could provide the BOE with a window for additional easing.
The commodity currencies are now weake More...
December German Ifo data due.
BOE Meeting minutes will be closely scrutiized.
No first-tier U.S. data due.
U.S. Housing data weak, but as expected.
Canadian core CPI well contained.
U.K. CPI easier than expected. More...
The Dollar rose against the Euro on Monday, boosted by year-end transactions as well as speculation that US inflation may cause the Federal Reserve to be less aggressive in cutting interest rates... More...
AUD-USD continues to be under pressure currently, after having a sharp fall on Friday. It is currently just above its important Support of 0.8565-55, on the trendline on the Daily Candles joining the More...
The dollar held near a two-month high against major currencies on Tuesday ahead of key U.S. housing data which could halt its rise if a weak outcome shifts investor focus back onto a slowing U.S. economy. More...
On the currency front the Cable moved lower following the lower than expected reading on core CPI in the UK as market participants speculate that the BOE could lower rates again. More...
UK core CPI data printed colder than expected at 2.1% vs. 2.2% forecast sending cable tumbling in morning London trade as the news essentially gave the green light to BoE to cut rates further in Q1 of 2008. More...
The markets are looking for direction in the majors. GBP weaker following softer than expected U.K. inflation data, which could provide the BOE with a window for additional easing.
The BOE remains on the defensive following its timid response to the Not More...
Canadian CPI awaited at 12:00 GMT.
U.S. Housing data will be watched.
U.K. CPI easier than expected.
RBA hawkish policy statement February (next meeting) rate hike seen as probable. More...
$/yen disappointing with weaker stocks not transforming into enough risk aversion to send carry crosses too far to the downside. This, along with $/yen maintaining a position above 112.50 have limited the downside More...
EUR/USD consolidating and so far trading an inside day as pressure on euro crosses seen yesterday ease and provide some support. This is the first day out of the past 4 that a new low has not been set but More...
The US dollar continued to rally to fresh two-month highs against the euro and other major currencies, as traders showed little willingness to hold onto dollar shorts ahead of year-end celebrations. More...
The Canadian dollar gained more than a cent against the U.S. dollar on Monday as interest in
the greenback prompted investors to cast their nets widely, lifting all three North American currencies More...
The dollar rose against the euro on Monday, boosted by year-end transactions as well as speculation that U.S. inflation may cause the Federal Reserve to be less aggressive in cutting interest rates next year.
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EUR/USD trying to establish a bottom. Many feel the USD demand is a yearend phenomenon that wont last after the turn. The USD trading broadly higher vs. most of the majors. Data on Friday also were not supportive of aggressive Fed ease.
The commodity cu More...
Volatility over the Christmas period and a softer tone to recent economic data are likely to keep the NZD under pressure in the short term. Recent market movements are the flipside of the ‘hope’ trade More...
The USD started the week on a firm tone prior to the US session open. Dealers attributed the early USD strength to technical momentum aided by fresh credit concerns. More...
This remains a liquidating market. EUR/USD trying to establish a bottom. Many feel the USD demand is a yearend phenomenon that wont last after the turn. The USD trading broadly higher vs. most of the majors. Data on Friday also were not supportive of aggr More...
U.K. CPI due.
Canadian CPI awaited.
U.S. Housing data will be watched.
U.S. Empire State PMI weak.
3Q07 Current Account better than expected.
October TIC flows better than expected. More...
The dollar surged on Friday as strong US data confirmed that Fed Chairman Bernanke made the right decision in not cutting the Fed Funds rate by more than 25 bps... More...
The Dollar rallied against major currencies for the third consecutive week, bolstered by a string of US economic reports showing higher-than-expected growth in consumer spending and higher ... More...
No doubt that inflation is the buzz. But won’t a real repudiation of credit by the market, or deleveraging, overwhelm lagging price indices? We think so. And given the seeming lack of confidence... More...
Trade for the year has just about drawn to a close. The Federal Reserve cut its Fed Funds target by -25bps on December 11, as widely expected. Nevertheless, the markets were disappointed with the tone of the policy statement by the central bank. G7 ce More...
USD-CHF had a sharp rally last week and is currently in an uptrend, which could result in further upmove possibly towards 1.1700-10 towards the year-end, which falls on a trendline on the Daily Candle More...
The dollar hit a two-month high versus a basket of major currencies on Monday, as strong inflation data at the end of last week continued to bolster sentiment on the U.S. economy in thin year-end trading.
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It appears to have been the case that the decision to cut UK interest rates by ¼% to 5.5% in December, the first cut since August 2005, was influenced by the second consecutive monthly fall in the services PMI. More...
The euro liquidation continued as the week began with the pair dropping below the 1.4400 level in early London trade after staging a mild rally in Asian session.
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On the Currency front the US Dollar remains firm as technical factors help the currency continue its recent gains. The Yen is firmer against the European crosses on the back of declines in global equity markets. More...
With $/yen maintaining a position above 112.00-50, the burden of cross offsets has fallen on other pairs and this has boosted the dollar elsewhere as the yen firms on its crosses. More...
EUR/USD extending its low as carry trade unwinding helps pressure the downside further. This is a tricky week to call as liquidity will continue to thin ahead of the Xmas break. More...
This remains a liquidating market. EUR/USD bottoming attempts have failed so far. Still many feel the USD demand is a yearend phenomenon that wont last after the turn.
The USD trading broadly higher vs. most of the majors. Data on Friday also were not s More...
Today we had the strongest one day rally in the US dollar against the Euro since May 2005. A number of factors can be attributed to the move such as strong consumer prices, Lufthansa’s purchase of a stake in JetBlue and overall risk aversion. More...
The Canadian dollar rose slightly against the U.S. dollar on Friday, bucking a global trend after strong U.S. consumer inflation data caused the greenback to rally against most currencies.
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The dollar rose on Friday, posting its largest daily increase against the euro in more than three years, after strong U.S. consumer price data trimmed expectations of aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
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The USD again exhibited broad base strength during the session as it made fresh 6 weeks highs against the EUR, CHF and CAD currency pairs. Dealers noted that some technical momentum is now contributing to the USD gains More...
So far its been a liquidating market. EUR/USD bottoming attempts have all petered out.
The USD trading broadly higher vs. the majors. The unit has continued to benefit from the better than expected retail sales data and a hotter than predicted PPI repor More...
Fed Funds Futures odds last 86% on a Jan 30 rate cut of -25bps. Thats near certainty, but off from 100% odds on Monday. Also note current levels (red bars) vs. 4 week ago levels. Significant sentiment shifts. More...
U.S. sees a full calendar Monday, including: Empire State PMI, 3Q07 Current Account and October TiC flows.
EZ flash PMI due on Moday.
U.S. CPI and IP data better than expected.
BOJ quarterly Tankan Survey weaker than expected. More...
In the December monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion website, sentiment for the USD against the EUR has improved. More...
The dollar hit a six-week high versus a basket of currencies on Friday as strong U.S. data the previous session eased some of the more extreme fears for the U.S. economy and more aggressive bets for lower interest rates.
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AUD-USD has fallen during the day and is currently near the lower end of its current trading range of 0.8700 – 0.8900, which has been holding on a closing basis for over 15 days now. There needs to be More...
On the currency front the USD continues to exhibit some broad based strength, hitting fresh six-week highs against both the Euro and the Franc. German inflation data failed to curb Dollar momentum More...
The surprisingly strong US Retail Sales number which beat expectations by nearly twice the projected amount, continued to reverberate throughout the currency markets tonight helping to underpin a broad based dollar rally with the unit gaining against yen, More...
EUR/USD making a fresh run at the downside and now dependent on 1.4500-20 holding to contain the downside as it looks like it will finally close below a daily trendline More...
The USD trading broadly higher vs. the majors. The unit has continued to benefit from the better than expected retail sales data and a hotter than predicted PPI report yesterday.
The JPY has been hit by a weaker than expected BOJ quarterly Tankan Big Ma More...
Is a recession in the US economy in 2008 possible? Yes. Is it probable? No. Before the FOMC rate decision on Tuesday, a poll by WSJ.com put the chance of a recession at approximately 35 percent. More...
The dollar rose on Thursday after U.S. retail sales and producer prices data strengthened the view that the U.S. economy will not slip into a recession despite a persistent credit crunch.
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The NZD drifted from its highest levels since July 26th yesterday as the US equity market gave up early gains. Further selling emerged following the release October’s retail sales data which showed a weaker than expected print for both headline and ex-a More...
The USD firmed against the 4 majors in today's session following better than expected retail sales and higher PPI Data. Dealers are noting that the data helps to negate the recent concerns that the US would enter into a recession or More...
Despite mixed reviews, the Bernanke-led initiative to inject more liquidity into the system has seen LIBOR rates ease on Thursday. Dealers will be looking ahead to the performance of this market in upcoming sessions.
The USD got a lift from better than More...
BOJ quarterly Tankan Survey due.
Final EZ HICP slated.
U.S. CPI and IP data key releases.
Australian employment data softer than expected.
SNB held steady as expected. More...
Mr. B's Wild Ride Black Swan Capital Thursday December 13, 2007 - 12:50:19 GMT
The rollercoaster ride began on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement. That’s when the Fed statement delivered a double dose of 25-basis point rate cuts ... More...
Yen gathered strength in overnight trade as the Nikkei tumbled by nearly 400 points on the back of worries that the worst of the sub-prime crisis may not be over and could infect the Japanese financial sector much in the way it affected US and European ba More...
SNB has kept the interest rate unchanged along the expected lines at 2.25% - 3.25%. There was a small decline in the USD-CHF prior to the interest rate announcement to a low of 1.1298, which saw buyin More...
The yen recovered from one-month lows versus the dollar and euro on Thursday as investors worried whether measures announced by major central banks on Wednesday would succeed in easing money market stress.
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In the currency markets US Dollar price action is mixed as the market continues to evaluate the implications of the joint central bank liquidity operation yesterday. More...
EUR/$ is trading at the same level seen yesterday at this time after extending its pivot around 1.47 for the 4th day in a row as it appears to have settled into a 1.4650-1.4750 range. More...
$/yen extending its pivot around 112 for the 3rd day in a row as it displays a better tone but has struggled above this level after running into resistance around 112.50 yesterday More...
The Bernanke led initiative to inject more liquidity into the system has been getting mixed reviews the day after.
Equities Wednesday put in a volatile session. The early call for prices is for a lower open. Stock prices are being used by all markets as More...
Full U.S. calendar: data include Retail Sales, PPI and initial jobless claims.
Australian employment data softer than expected.
SNB held steady as expected. More...
The US dollar was among the performers among major currencies on the day, as a sharp improvement in risk sentiment allowed traders to re-enter dollar-short positions. More...
USD tries higher, but can't sustain gains just yet
Risk aversion returns as outlook stabilizes for now
Fed rate cut (Tuesday) of .25% now expected
Trichet is blowing smoke on ECB tightening More...
The Canadian dollar rose versusthe U.S. currency on Wednesday despite a turnaround in equity
markets that ate away at early gains made after a coordinated move by major central banks to help resolve More...
The jury is still out on the central bank decision to inject more liquidity into the system. Key will ne how the LIBOR markets respond.
Equities put in a volatile session and did not recoup their post-Fed losses from Tuesday. Fixed income markets sold o More...
The Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Bank of Canada today jointly announced measures intended to alleviate funding pressures in global money markets. More...
Exactly 100% odds for a January 29 rate cut of -25bps... More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Wednesday December 12, 2007 - 17:41:26 GMT
The Fed has sent markets for a wild ride since yesterday's disappointing reaction their interest rate decision. Equity futures rebounded overnight after reports surfaced indicating that the Fed was considering alternative measures to address More...
Markets are responding positively to the central bank decision to inject more liquidity into the system. Key will ne how the LIBOR markets respond.
The USD is trading mixed in N.Y. vs. the majors. GBP is better.
Carry trade financing currencies (JPY a More...
Key Australian employment data due.
SNB expected to hold steady.
U.S. data include PPI and initial jobless claims.
U.S. and Canadian trade data in line.
Japanese trade data better than expected More...
The FOMC cuts rates 25 basis points to 4.25% as expected. The accompanying statement has pointed to improved inflationary conditions however the housing market still weighing in on economic growth... More...
After the sharp fall yesterday, GBP-USD has bounced back and it is coming close to its Resistance of 2.0470-80, on the trendline on the 4-Hourly joining the highs of 2.0835 (29-Nov) and 2.0522 (11-Dec More...
In the currency markets the US Dollar is somewhat firmer following comments from a PBOC official ahead of the open noting that China is in favor of a strong Dollar. The Yen is maintain a soft tone More...
The dollar fell versus the euro on Wednesday after the previous day's quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve disappointed investors hoping for more aggressive action to help the economy and credit markets.
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EURUSD turned most of its losses around in early London trade as global equity markets stabilized after yesterday’s near 300 point sell off in the Dow.
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$/yen trading an inside day after finding 112+ too tough yesterday but not seriously threatening 110 on the downside. This leaves it floundering within 110-112 with the focus squarely on the level of risk aversion More...
All eyes are on the Fed again as markets wait for what additional measures it will announce to alleviate the current credit crisis. As posted on GVI yesterday, the Fed had little choice but to More...
In these days of the Carry-trade unwinding, we decided to check the correlation between the EURJPY as a barometer of the "Easy leveraged money" that investors took from Japan and the NYSE Composite More...
In response to the reaction of the markets to the Fed decision yesterday, the central bank appears to be on the defensive and it has apparently leaked word that it is looking into alternative methods for injecting liquidity into the money markets.
The U More...
U.S. and Canadian trade data featured.
Japanese trade data better than expected
U.K. average earnings data ease.
EZ Industrial Output data remains solid. More...
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp today, causing US stocks and carry trades to plummet and the dollar to strengthen significantly. For the traders who were hoping for a larger 50bp rate cut and a strong stock market rally, Bernanke may be th More...
The Canadian dollar sagged against a firmer U.S. dollar on Tuesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its bellwether interest rate by a quarter percent, which was less than More...
The dollar fell sharply against the yen on Tuesday, but rose against the euro after the U.S. Federal Reserve took a step toward staving off an economic recession that was more modest than some expected.
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The USD fell from a one month high versus the yen on speculation the Fed will lower its benchmark interest rate today and again early next year amid a slowdown in the economy. Earlier the euro fell to 1.4655 following a report showing investor confidence More...
The Dollar slipped against most major currencies on Monday for the third consecutive session, ahead of a today widely expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cut. Futures fully reflect a 0.25% easing.. More...
The dollar slipped versus the euro and the pound but made little progress versus the pound and the yen on Monday, as the market consolidated before the expected Fed rate 25-basis point cut today... More...
there was no dominant theme overnight as lack luster trading was prevalent ahead of today's FOMC announcement. Trade was driven by the Euro/Cable overnight as the Euro was weaker following weaker Zew data, and a stronger cable following the narrowing trad More...
USD-CHF dipped to a low of 1.1253 yesterday after hitting a high of 1.1357 a few days back. With that it has made a small range of 1.1250 – 1.1360, within a larger range of 1.1360 – 1.1153. More...
The dollar hit a one-month high versus the yen and firmed against other currencies in choppy trading on Tuesday ahead of a widely anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve later. More...
$/yen testing 112+ for the first time in over a month and as noted yesterday, this is the pivotal level that would need to be renewed to shift the focus from 110. So far More...
EUR/$ extending recovery high to 1.4751 but succumbing to profit-taking after eur/yen stalled just below 165. This comes in a market clearly being driven by various crosses, More...
Traders across the markets are holding their breath for the last Federal Reserve interest decision of the year. In our opinion, there are four possible scenarios for tomorrow’s rate decision but only two outcomes for the US dollar. More...
The Canadian dollar finished
almost unchanged against the greenback on Monday as commentsfrom the Bank of Canada were unable to inspire a move ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate More...
The dollar slipped against most major currencies on Monday for the third consecutive session, a day ahead of a widely expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cut aimed at staving off a recession. More...
The USD is closing lower vs. the majors. GBP is ending higher following a hotter than expected PPI report.
Carry trade financing currencies (CHF and JPY) were steady.
Aussie and kiwi are better. CAD is steady.
A -25bp rate cut on Tuesday is the most More...
From an early high of 0.7764, the NZD drifted lower during the local session yesterday, as rumours of further sub-prime write downs circulated. However, with attention turning towards this week’s anticipated rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Monday December 10, 2007 - 18:58:54 GMT
The USD started the week on a soft tone as European central bankers continued their hawkish tone in regards to inflation. More...
The USD is lower vs. the majors. GBP is higher after a hotter than expected PPI report.
Carry trade financing currencies (CHF and JPY) are steady.
Aussie and kiwi are better. CAD is weaker.
Dealers feel a -25bp rate cut on Tuesday is the most likely More...
German ZEW survey due on Tuesday.
U.K. Trade figues are slated as well.
Fed expected to cut discount rate and fed funds target rates by -25bps.
U.S. pending home sales were considerably stronger than expected.
U.K. PPI data indicate mounting p More...
In chart below, interesting the markets price in 100bps in rate cuts by August 08. 100% odds for a -25bp rate cut tomorrow. 26% odds that they will cut by a full -50bps. More...
The non-farm payrolls report was mixed and the dollar was exceptionally well behaved. The market should tread water today and part of Tuesday ahead of the FOMC meeting... More...
The Dollar rose against the Yen on Friday as a slightly above-forecast Jobs report eased some concerns that a housing slump had spread to the broad economy and reduced chances of an aggressive Fed... More...
GBP-USD had a sharp fall last week on back of the BOE rate cut last week and it hit a low of 2.0180. Now that low would be an important low for the next few days, as that is the “bad news low” for the More...
Credit spreads not improving. Pressure in the U.K. remains the worst. Absolutely no room for EZ to tighten. Also 25bps rate cuts by Fed and BOE are still losing ground to wideniing credit spreads.
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The USD is about steady vs. the majors. GBP is higher after a hotter than expected PPI report.
Dealers feel a -25bp rate cut on Tuesday is the most likely outcome for that meeting.
The commodity currencies are firmer. Equities are seen opening higher. More...
The dollar retreated from an earlier one-month high versus the yen on Monday after a $10 billion subprime writedown by UBS fanned concerns about the health of the gloabl financial sector.
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Sterling was the star of the show in FX at the start of the week as hotter than expected PPI readings and broad corporate demand for the currency spurred an early morning rally taking the pair higher by 100 points.
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Global financial markets have awoken to the rise of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs), although they have been around since 1953. But what has made them so much more important and given them prominence recently is their size, their strong potential rise over More...
$/yen extending its recovery a touch further as weaker yen crosses again provide offset support. This has seen $/yen test the daily trendline from mid-October although the key daily trendline is not until More...
Market is marking time ahead of the FOMC decision tomorrow, where sentiment has shifted to a 25bp rate cut as a 50bp cut becomes the longer shot bet. This has seen the yen remain soft out of carry trade flows with offsets More...
The latest week was very eventful for the forex markets and has just about put a lid on the year. The only unknown is the FOMC policy decision on December 11. Many feel that a -25bp cut in the 4.50% Fed Funds rate is now a lock. The only uncertainty left More...
Non-farm payrolls were a big disappointment today because it failed to trigger any volatility in the currency market. The report was mixed with job growth slowing and average hourly earnings growing in the month of November. The ADP report released on Thu More...
The Canadian dollar charged higher on Friday as a strong domestic jobs report showed the
economy hanging in despite turmoil in the U.S. housing sector and financial market disruption. More...
The dollar rose against the yen on Friday as a slightly above-forecast jobs report eased some concerns that a housing slump had spread to the broad economy and reduced chances of an aggressive Fed interest rate cut.
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Credit spreads not improving. Absolutely no room for EZ to tighten. Also 25bps rate cuts by Fed and BOE are still losing ground to wideniing credit spreads.
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During the last few days, the dollar continued to gain ground. The euro lost around 1 cent against the dollar, falling to about 1.463; EUR-USD had even approached 1.45 temporarily, but ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet’s remark More...
The Euro rose against the Dollar and Yen on Thursday as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet's hawkish comments on inflation raised the view of an interest rate hike in the euro zone... More...
After bouncing from 0.8700, AUD-USD has been stable so far, and once again the Support of 0.8700 would be carefully watched. A break below that (if seen) on a daily close basis could result in a fall More...
The dollar was steady versus a basket of currencies on Friday as market players squared positions before the U.S. jobs report later in the day, looking for clues on the size of an expected Federal Reserve rate cut next week. More...
A typically quiet night in the currency markets ahead of the US Non Farm payrolls release due later in the day which should serve as the marquee event risk of the week. The price action is especially slow due to the absence of any meaningful economic dat More...
$/yen finding support out of increased demand for carry trades following a reduction in the level of risk aversion as indicated by the recovery in equities this week. This has seen $/yen edge closer to the pivotal 112 level, More...
Spin the wheel, it is time for the monthly NFP roulette game. Despite being subject to large revisions and a large margin of error, the market continues to place great weight on the monthly jobs #, which has taken on even added significance after the stro More...
The USD is about steady vs. the majors heading into the November employment report.
Barring a substantially weaker than expected report. Dealers feel a -25bp rate cut next Tuesday is the most likely outcome for that meeting.
The commodity currencies a More...
Estimates for U.S. November NFP being revised higher after ADP data on Wednesday.
Canada November employment due also.
Japanese 3Q07 GDP unexpectedly revised downward.
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It has been an active trading week in the currency market and things are only expected to get even more interesting with tomorrow’s November non-farm payrolls report. According to our Employment More...
The Canadian dollar ended flat against the greenback on Thursday but moved comfortably off a session low as domestic data topped estimates and the Bank of Canada said the currency returned to a more suitable range.
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The euro rose against the dollar and yen on Thursday as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet's hawkish comments on inflation raised the specter of an interest rate hike in the euro zone.
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The dollar rallied across the board on Wednesday. The pound collapsed on Wednesday on expectations for a rate cut today. UK house prices fell 1.1% percent t\ in November, according to a report... More...
The USD has suffered a modest setback vs. Europe. The GBP is about steady after the BOE decision to cut rates by -25bp. The JPY is weaker vs. the USD.
As for the U.S., much better than expected ADP private employment survey blindsided traders and saw so More...
U.S. Payroll data due Friday. +80K consensus estimate is dated after the ADP data. Note slope of blue 6mo moving average. UNMISTAKABLE..
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U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Thursday December 6, 2007 - 18:09:49 GMT
European interest rate decisions were the main catalyst regarding currency trade today. The BOE unexpectedly lowered their rates by 25bp to 5.50%. The ECB maintained their rates at 4.00%, as expected. More...
The Dollar scaled a one-month peak against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as reports showing robust job growth and productivity gains suggested a milder slowdown in the US economy... More...
The dollar struck a one-month high against a basket of currencies on Thursday, as a rate cut from the Bank of England confirmed investors' views that credit and subprime troubles were a global, and not just a U.S. problem.
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GBP-USD had a sharp fall yesterday as there has been a sharp increase in probability of a BOE rate cut later today. If that cut is actually seen (of 25 basis points), then a small bounce could be seen More...
Central bank announcement night in FX and as might be expected trading is cautious ahead of the key monetary events later in the day. Both the BoE and the ECB will set their interest rate policy at 12GMT and 12:45GMT respectively. The currency markets f More...
$/yen again finding 111+ difficult but maintaining a bid on dips mode while above 110 in what remains a cross driven environment for this pair. Price action suggests interest on both sides More...
EUR/USD breakdown continues and this has seen it extend its decline into the 1.45s where there is some potential formidable supports at 1.4545 (key trendline), 1.4522 and the pivotal 1.4500 level. More...
The USD has continued to gain vs. Europe. The GBP is about steady ahead of the BOE decision shortly. The JPY is steady vs. the USD as well.
The BOE decision is said to be on a knife edge. Weak U.K. Services PMI data yesterday reinforces the case for a r More...
ECB and BOE policy decisions. ECB seen unchanged. High risk for a BOE rate cut.
U.S. Weekly jobless and Canadian Ivey PMI due.
Swiss unemployment was unchanged.
German Industrial Orders still More...
Going into Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, the financial market had resigned itself to softer job growth. Today that sentiment was thrown out the window after the shockingly strong ADP employment report. According to the payroll provider, US compani More...
The Canadian dollar finished lower against the U.S. currency on Wednesday, dragged down by a
slide in oil prices, follow-through from the unexpected Bank of Canada rate cut earlier this week, More...
The dollar scaled a one-month peak against a basket of currencies on Wednesday after a robust private jobs report suggested the U.S. labor market remained relatively healthy despite an economic slowdown. More...
The USD is better vs. the majors and the GBP is sharply weaker. A much better than expected ADP private employment survey blindsided traders and saw some precautionary long liquidations of EUR/USD longs. The GBP was undermimed by a weaker than expected U. More...
U.S. ADP payrolls very high
U.K. looming gloomier and gloomier
RBA keeps rates intact More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Wednesday December 5, 2007 - 17:30:35 GMT
U.S. equity markets post strong gains along with overseas bourses. Equity futures were already higher heading into this morning's data. Better than expected ADP employment gains along with higher Q3 nonfarm productivity and lower labor costs have kept the More...
The USD is better vs. the majors. The GBP is sharply weaker. The commodity currencies are widely mixed.
Focus Central Bank Decisions on Thursday. Market now expecting a BOE cut. The weak U.K. Services PMI data reinforces the case for a rate cut Thursday More...
ECB and BOE policy decisions. ECB seen unchanged. High risk for a BOE rate cut.
U.S. Weekly jobless and Canadian Ivey PMI due.
Flash EZ Services PMI was revised higher. U.K. Services PMI was substantially weaker. Some Say the BOE follows these dat More...
The Dollar fell against the Yen and the Euro on Tuesday on speculation the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates aggressively next week to calm market concerns over the credit turmoil ... More...
GBP-USD has had a very sharp fall during the day, as the interest rate expectations from BOE meeting tomorrow have changed considerably. A rate cut of 25 basis points is now being projected.
More...
The dollar climbed against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday as rising equity markets gave investors the excuse to take profits after two days of selling the U.S. currency. More...
On the FX front the focus has been on the British Pound, which is trading lower on speculation that the Bank of England will follow the Bank of Canada's lead this week by cutting interest rates at their policy setting meeting More...
With the exception of the pound which broke the 2.0400 figure in the aftermath of soft UK housing and PMI Services data, the majors continued to quietly consolidate as markets awaited the first clues regarding the US labor outlook from the ADP survey due More...
$/yen not following through on the downside as firmer equities today cool the level of risk aversion in a market that continues to be driven by liquidity needs more than speculation. More...
EUR/USD has slipped in line with a generally firmer dollar but lagging currencies such as gbp, which is currently leading the market. This leaves the eur/usd consolidating as it remains above the 1.4620 low More...
Focus on U.S. data releases today and Central Bank Decisions Thursday.
Some say that the weak U.K. Services PMI data today reinforces the case for a rate cut Thursday. EXB is about certain to hold steady.
Expectation is that ADP data will provide a gl More...
Active U.S. calendar. Highlights: ADP private jobs and ISM Services PMI.
Flash EZ Services PMI was revised higher. U.K. Services PMI was substantially weaker. Some Say the BOE follows these data very closely.
EZ Retail Sales weaker than expected. More...
The lack of US economic data today led to directionless trading in the dollar which strengthened against the commodity currencies but weakened against the Japanese Yen and Euro. Fed fund futures are now pricing in a 50 percent chance of a half point rate More...
The Canadian dollar finished at its lowest level in 11 weeks versus the greenback on Tuesday as the Bank of Canada went against market expectations and cut its key interest rate for the first time More...
The dollar fell against the yen and the euro on Tuesday on speculation the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates aggressively next week to calm market concerns over the credit turmoil and tightening liquidity.
More...
The dollar slipped on Monday on profit taking. There was also pressure from renewed expectations for a rate cut next week. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Yellen warned... More...
NZD/USD washed around in a tight range again on Tuesday as the market awaits economic data to provide some kind of impetus. With no local data releases the NZD was contained to a 0.7620 to 0.7650 range for the majority of the day but had a late dip as car More...
In currencies, the 1.4620 is proving to be formable support for the EUR/USD for the third straight session. Market chatter continues that Eastern European names have been steady buyers of Euros on the approach of 1.46 handle. The Euro upside gained additi More...
The Bank of Canada rate decision had been a close call, but the markets have reacted strongly to the move.
End of year liquidity remains a major issue.
Cautious trade is likely again today in what is likely to be an eventful week.
A relatively weak More...
The Yen rose broadly in quiet trade on Monday as continued uncertainty over the fallout from the US credit market turmoil caused investors to reduce exposure to risky carry trades... More...
USD-CHF has fallen quite a bit during the day, more than we had expected. Currently it looks like there is a decline towards 1.1200 underway, however, that is expected to provide strong Support. More...
On the FX front the US Dollar continues to consolidate from multi-decade lows. Focus has been on the yen and Franc as credit concerns remain on the front burner resulting in a drop in the equity markets, and a continued unwinding of the carry trades. More...
The yen gained against the dollar and higher-yielding currencies on Tuesday as concerns about credit turmoil and escalating tensions in the money market prompted investors to cut back risky positions.
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Rising risk aversion as can be seen in a firmer yen on its crosses has pressured $/yen back below 110, which remains the pivotal level that will set the bias going forwards. So far the downside has been contained by More...
EUR/USD trading with a better bid and this has seen it recover back above 1.47 to pivot its 20 day mva. On the upside, 1.47 is likely to act as a focal point but the trendline drawn off the recent highs at 1.4770 is the level More...
End of year liquidity remains a major issue.
Cautious trade is likely again today in what is likely to be an eventful week.
BOC policy decision Tuesday is a coin-toss. RBA BOE and ECB decisions are due from Wednesday onwards.
A relatively weak Novem More...
The Bank of Canada is the first central bank to announce their monetary policy decision this week and traders should be prepared for surprises. The market is currently pricing in a 60 percent chance of a quarter point rate cut even though economists do n More...
The Bank of Canada is the first central bank to announce their monetary policy decision this week and traders should be prepared for surprises. The market is currently pricing in a 60 percent chance of a quarter point rate cut even though economists do n More...
The Canadian dollar closed slightly lower against the U.S. dollar on Monday, as investors held off making any big moves ahead of a Bank of Canada
interest rate announcement on Tuesday. More...
The yen rose broadly in quiet trade on Monday as continued uncertainty over the fallout from the U.S. credit market turmoil caused investors to reduce exposure to risky carry trades.
More...
U.S Market Update Trade the News Staff Monday December 3, 2007 - 17:17:55 GMT
n currencies, the credit market concerns continue to influence the currency flows. In early Europe, press speculation noted that UK lending was practically "grinding to a halt" citing More...
U.S. ISM PMI abouit as expected.
End of year liquidity remains a major issue.
It looks like today has been a cautious start to what is likely to be an eventful week.
BOC policy decision Tuesday is a coin-toss. RBA BOE and ECB decisions are due from More...
Bank of Canada policy decision is the highlight on Tuesday. This is a very close call on whether they ease or not.
Active Session PMI surveys much better than expected across the board. EZ, UK, More...
The Dollar rallied across the board on Friday, posting its biggest weekly rise against a basket of currencies in more than a year, on profit-taking in the Euro and month-end squaring up ... More...
Maybe! Black Swan Capital Monday December 3, 2007 - 13:00:16 GMT
Talk of a dollar bounce is beginning to surface in several quarters ... More...
The yen gained broadly on Monday, as risk appetite was suppressed by expectations of more bad news from the financial sector as the fallout from the U.S. subprime market woes and subsequent credit crunch spreads ever-wider.
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AUDUSD was choppy without any clear direction all through last week, and a similar behaviour is expected this week, with strong Resistance coming near 0.8900, which comes on a trendline on the Daily More...
The session has been quiet overall, with fixed income, fx, equity, and commodity trading all dictated by the same thing… namely, continued credit concerns. Increased concerns have arisen following an article on the collapse of the interbank market, as w More...
In his opening statement to the Treasury Select Committee, Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, stated that the consequences of tighter credit conditions resulting from the turmoil in global financial markets are ‘difficult to assess and are li More...
EURUSD made a half hearted attempt at a rebound in early London trade this morning, but despite the better then expected PMI Manufacturing numbers the pair could not hold the 1.4700 level and tumbled sharply for rest of the European session. More...
Market still feeling the effects of Friday’s price action and this has seen eur/usd struggle, extending its correction by another 10 pips to 1.4630 after a brief bounce above 1.47 (and the 20 day mva) failed to hold. However, More...
It looks like today has been a cautious start to what is likely to be an eventful week.
BOC policy decision Tuesday is a coin-toss. RBA BOE andECB decisions are due from Wednesday onwards.
A relatively weak November U.S. employment report is due on Fr More...
$/yen starting the week on a softer note as generally firmer crosses weigh on the pair although the downside is likely limited as long as it holds above 110. This leaves $/yen consolidating within 110-111 More...
The last month of the calendar year is distinct from the other eleven for seasonal reasons. At one time, most institutions closed their books at the end of December; however most now operate on a fiscal year to avoid having end of calendar year financial More...
The Canadian dollar slipped on Friday and closed at exactly par with the U.S. dollar -- C$1 for US$1 -- as oil prices weighed on the commodity-linked currency, while the market looked ahead to a Bank of Canada interest rate announcement next week.
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We are entering the last trading month of the year which usually draws out a lot of unique factors that can affect the demand for US dollars. A few weeks ago, we published a report on the seasonality of the US dollar and we found that based on 20 years of More...
The dollar had a good day versus the European and the antipodean currencies on Thursday and carry trades suffered minor losses on profit taking. It wasn’t easily given the abysmal US new home sales... More...
The dollar rallied across the board on Friday, posting its biggest weekly rise against a basket of currencies in more than a year, on profit-taking in the euro and month-end squaring up of positions by corporates.
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During the course of the week, the dollar regained some ground. EUR-USD slipped from over 1.48 to around 1.477, USD-JPY rose more sharply from just under 108 to 110.70. The dollar’s recovery was probably partly connected with US equity markets reboundin More...
U.S. data were moot after Bernanke rate cut signal late Thursday.
Canadaian GDP were not decicive either way vis-a-vis policy decision on Tuesday.
Japanese data stronger than expected,
E-Z dat More...
GBP-USD had a very sharp fall yesterday and it has been pressurized since then. The current fall could lead to further losses in the week or early next week, possibly towards 2.0470-60, which falls on More...
The yen fell broadly on Friday and high-yielders gained after comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke cemented expectations of easier monetary policy, which may help the U.S. economy to avoid a recession.
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For much of the Asian trading session, the greenback went very little changed despite speculation that commentary by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last night signaled a rate cut by the central bank next month. More...
Bernanke comments last evening only confirmed the -25bp rate cut already priced in for December 11. Hopes for a -50bp cut are now being viewed as a long shot.
EUR/USD is better following hotter than expected E-Z flash HICP data. Swiss CPI were also on t More...
Japanese data stronger than expected,
E-Z data put any hopes for ECB rate cut on ice.
CH CPI higher than forecast.
Key inflation (and other data due from U.S.)
Canadian GDP could be decisive for BOC next week. More...
While eur/usd has broken a 7 day pattern of closes with a 1.48 handle, which should have been a bearish signal, offsets from carry crosses have helped provide support as stocks firm following Bernanke’s comments last night hinting of a rate cut More...
$/yen extending its recovery out of weaker yen crosses (i.e. firmer carry crosses) to briefly move above its 20 day mva (110.70). On the upside, key level is 111.07 as a close above it would be needed to create an outside week key reversal More...
The US dollar has rebounded but don’t be fooled into thinking that this is a bottom because if anything, US fundamentals continue to point to further dollar weakness. This morning’s economic data was horrid. Not only was October new home sales small More...
The Canadian dollar finished lower versus the greenback on Thursday as oil prices unwound big gains and weak economic data left the currency on the verge of falling below parity with the U.S. dollar.
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The dollar rallied against most major currencies on Thursday, buoyed by demand from U.S. corporations seeking to square their books by the end of the month.
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The NZD opened with a firm bid tone on Thursday and quickly ran up to 0.7753 in tandem with a rampant Dow Jones Index. Once the NY equity markets closed the NZD settled back to trade a tight range just above 0.7700 with little flow seen. More...
Also on the calendar, Japanese manufacturing PMI. We just started following this statistic. Note that it is already below the 50 economic expansion/contraction line... More...
A Slew of key data are slated from Japan.
EZ has a busy calendar as well.
CDA GDP could be decisive for BOC decision next week.
U.S. calendar is full. More...
Volatility in the currency markets is picking up ahead of month end, while the overall ranges remain intact among the major USD pairs. EUR/USD holding the 1.4700 support level on chatter of central bank bids looming. More...
EUR/USD has reversed its Wednesday spike on reported Asian central bank EUR/USD sales. Chatter about an EZ-China agreement for China to slow USD sales for EUR.
Demand for liquidity is still the name of the game. Generating USD demand as funds are sucked More...
Also Japanese nationwide CPI. It is so close to zero (yr/yr) that the chart is almost meaningless. No way BOJ can consider raising rates before it turns positive... More...
Monthend is by far the most active day for economic data. EZ flash November HICP is due (no core until the final number comes out in about two weeks)...
More...
Carry trades enjoyed another day in the sun on Wednesday, and this means that the high yielders – the pound and the antipodean currencies did well, while the low-yielders – the yen and the franc... More...
The Dollar edged lower against the Euro and trimmed gains versus other European currencies on Wednesday as comments from a Federal Reserve official and a key economic report affirmed expectations ... More...
EUR-CHF (1.6505) has seen sharp rally over the last couple of days and has moved above its short-term important level of 1.6460-65. Now this level may act as Support, and should it hold, then USD-CHF More...
Talk it was a major middle-east player who was the large buyer of EUR/USD on Wednesday. EUR/USD has reversed today.
Demand for liquidity is still the name of the game. Generating USD demand as funds are sucked in by U.S. institutions.
The one month ma More...
Do you notice the incongruity? Stocks soared, capping their strongest 2-day move in the last five years -- all after more disappointing economic data hit the wire ...
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In the currency markets the Dollar is stronger against the European currencies, reversing yesterday's losses following the beige book and comments from the Fed's Kohn. While the Dollar remains within its recent ranges against the major currencies, volatil More...
The US Dollar recovered nearly all of yesterday’s losses against the Euro and British Pound, shrugging off yesterday’s Beige Book report and dovish commentary from Fed Vice Chairman Kohn and looking ahead to this morning’s US Q3 GDP revisions.
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The dollar rose broadly on Thursday as investors bet that the likelihood of more U.S. interest rate cuts will help avoid a recession and attract more dollar-positive inflows into the U.S. equity market.
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$/yen consolidating around 110 and so far trading an inside day as some easing of cross pressures has seen the dollar firm elsewhere out of offsets. $/yen 110 is clearly the level going forwards that will dictate whether More...
EUR/USD has so far traded an inside but volatile day as it retreats back below 1.48 in what remains a skittish, cross driven environment. In this regard, yen crosses again dominating with some easing of yesterday’s pressures seeing offsets bearing the b More...
The Canadian dollar rallied 0.9 percent against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, a day after dropping to parity, after comments from a U.S. Federal Reserve official and some weak U.S. economic data suggested the Fed will cut interest rates in December.
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The Dow has rallied more than 500 points over the past 2 trading days, triggering a sharp rebound in all of the Japanese Yen crosses. Carry trades are back with a vengeance, but the question at the forefront of everyone’s minds is whether this trend wi More...
The dollar edged lower against the euro and trimmed gains versus other European currencies on Wednesday as comments from a Federal Reserve official and a key economic report affirmed expectations for further rate cuts.
More...
Market Chatter that a major middle-east player was a large buyer of EUR/USD on Wednesday. Eventually short EUR/USD stops were triggered.
Demand for liquidity now the name of the game. Generating USD demand as funds are sucked in by U.S. institutions.
More...
U.S. indices surge on hopes the Fed will successfully steer the economy through the credit malaise. UBS +4.4% was upgraded overnight while a WSJ article indicated that BAC made overtures to Citigroup +7% regarding a possible merger before deciding to acce More...
Thursday: Japanese, U.K. ans EZ data due.
U.S. weekly jobles ans new home sales are due.
Durable Goods weak but in line. Existing Home Sales were weak again. Weekly energy inventories did not fall by as much as expected.
EZ Money supply grew fas More...
Demand for liquidity now the name of the game. Generating USD demand as funds are sucked in by U.S. institutions.
Comments by Fed Governor Kohn thought to have signaled a Fed -25bp rae cut on December 11. Such an ease was already priced in.
The one mo More...
The dollar suffered through another mixed day of trading that was dominated by a return to carry trades. Given the very patchy performance of the past few days, don’t be too convinced... More...
There was a little visit to China on the part of a major European delegation yesterday. According to the Financial Times this morning, Europe and China agreed to the following:
More...
The Dollar gained broadly on Tuesday as news that Citigroup would sell a $7.5 bio stake to the Abu Dhabi government triggered a wave of buying from traders who rely on computer models... More...
USD-CHF has had sharp rally during the day and with that it has come just below its important Resistance of 1.1200-10, which falls on a trendline on the Daily Candles joining the highs of 1.1778 (24- More...
On the FX front there has been a broad based technical correction adding some upside momentum to the dollar and weighing down on commodity prices. The dollar also gained some momentum after Dresdner cut its 2008 ECB rate forecast to hold rate at 4.00%. More...
The dollar rose to one-week highs versus the euro, the yen and the Swiss franc on Wednesday, as investors took profits on the U.S. currency's recent slump to multi-year lows and thin volumes accentuated market moves. The more positive tone on the dollar w More...
Libor Fixings.. 3mo credit/liquidity premia moving higher in USD, GBP and EUR. This all started around August 1. We would have thought by now that the markets wold have adapted, but clearly not... More...
The FX markets were remarkably quiet for much of the night, though the greenback staged a brief but strong rally as European traders took the stage and sold EUR/USD down more than 100 points for a test of 1.4720 and GBP/USD lower for a touch of 2.06 More...
$/yen failure to establish below 108 and steadier crosses have encouraged a correction attempt that would need to get through 110 to postpone the downside threat. More...
EUR/USD moving into a correction mode after failing to test 1.50 and moving back below 1.48, above which it has closed for the past 6 days. Given the history of limited corrections, expect caution this time around More...
The one month maturity will soon start to extend beyond yearend. The focus increasingly now wil be on yearend liquidity for the major institutions. Liquidity concerns could constrain activity in December.
The USD is better vs. Europe and the JPY. Perhap More...
Key U.S. data: Durable Goods and October and Existing Home Sales due.
EZ Money supply grew faster than expected. Could keep the ECB on the defensive.
Swiss KOF indicator better than expected.
Japanese Retail Sales up by more than seen. More...
The story of the day is not the US dollar but rather carry trades, which are up sharply on the back of the strength in the stock market. News that Citigroup received a $7.5 billion cash infusion from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has sent financial More...
The Canadian dollar finished lower against the U.S. currency on Tuesday, slipping below parity briefly, as oil prices fell and the market looked ahead to a Bank of Canada interest rate decision next week.
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The dollar gained broadly on Tuesday as news that Citigroup Inc (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) would sell a $7.5 billion stake to the Abu Dhabi government triggered a wave of buying from traders who rely on computer models.
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The USD is closing better vs. Europe and much better vs. the JPY. The JPY tracked stocks again.
Equities stabilized after the announcement of a major capital infusion into Citi by Abu Dhabi.
Flight to safety panic buying of Treasuries evaporated. As a More...
Equities find some traction after Citigroup receives a $7.5B cash infusion from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. The reaction in the stock itself has been less than overwhelming as it actually More...
EZ Money supply due Wednesday. It is always closely followed.
Key U.S. data: Durable Goods and Octobe Existing Homes Sales due.
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was even weaker than expected.
Case -Shiller index weak as well.
The Ge More...
Equities have rebounded on the back of the announcement of a major capital infusion into Citi by Abu Dhabi.
The flight to safety panic buying of Treasuries yesterday has eased. As a result prices on U.S. treasuries are sharply weaker (higher yields). 10 More...
The Dollar slid further to a fresh 2-1/2-year low against the Yen on Monday in line with falls in US equities, as renewed credit worries affirmed expectations that more US rate cuts are imminent... More...
The dollar took heart on Tuesday from news that Citigroup Inc (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) will sell a stake to the Abu Dhabi government and it rose against the euro, the yen and the Swiss franc.
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GBP fell from near 2.0760, which was mentioned as range (of 2.0766 and 2.0450) Resistance yesterday. As such, that is likely to be important for later today as well. More...
In the FX market a general tone of consolidation continues to blanket the market. The Yen is inversely following the rise in equity futures price action in the States. Looking ahead, the focus is likely to remain on the credit market. Credit market jitter More...
News during the Asian trading session that the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority would invest $7.5B in Citibank led the Nikkei to rebound, and pushed FX carry trades like USDJPY and GBPJPY to rocket higher as well.
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Yen volatility, as driven by the level of risk aversion and equity market movements, continues to dominate trading. This has seen $/yen rebound to pivot 108 for the third day in a row as yen crosses retreat but so far with limited follow through More...
EUR/USD trading an inside day with volatility continuing to be seen in yen carry crosses, such as eur/yen. This has left eur/usd consolidating within 1.48-1.49 for the second day in a row as the market debates whether to make another run at 1.50. Logic su More...
Japanese wholesale prices up +1.3% y/y.
The German IFO survey for November was considerably stronger than expected.
U.S. CB consumer Confidence will be closely watched, as usual. A weak outcome is expected. More...
Japanese wholesale prices up +1.3% y/y.
The German IFO survey for November was considerably stronger than expected.
U.S. CB consumer Confidence will be closely watched, as usual. A weak outcome is expected. More...
The dollar slid further to a fresh 2-1/2-year low against the yen on Monday in line with falls in U.S. equities, as renewed credit worries affirmed expectations that more U.S. rate cuts are imminent.
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The Canadian dollar gave back early gains to close lower against the U.S. currency on Monday
as uncertainty ahead of next week's Bank of Canada rate decision ate away at overnight oil-related gains. More...
The last two hours of trading in the US session has accounted for the majority of today’s volatility in the currency, stock and bond markets. The Dow plummeted 237 points, 10 Year US Treasury Bond yields fell to the lowest level since March 2004 and th More...
The floor gave way under U.S. shares. Falling stock prices saw bond prices soar. Credit worries are back on the front burner.
The USD is lower vs. Europe and the JPY.
The commodity currencies ended weker.
Key housing data come out over the week. More...
USD slips against yen on China reserves news. Although the USD was largely range-bound yesterday, sentiment remains negative with year-end liquidity concerns and expectations of further reductions in US interest rates weighing. The USD fell to a low of 10 More...
In currencies, the overall tone was one of consolidation for the USD and JPY as they piggybacked the global equity and fixed-income price action. The undertones of credit market concerns remained on the front burner and central banks continue to take not More...
Monday was a rare session with the international calendar quiet.
Tuesday sees the closely followed German IFO seurvey for November.
U.S. CB consumer Confidence is due as well. More...
No key data were released today. Key housing data come out over the week.
Dealers are now in the final leg into yearend.
The USD is lower vs. Europe. THE USD/JPY is now steady on the day.
The commodity currencies are mixed. The AUD is sill up after More...
• Has the Euro peaked?
• US housing, confidence data to keep the focus on the negative
• Eurozone sentiment indicators will be key
• JPY-crosses (carry trade) setting up potential for a drop More...
The post-Thanksgiving day saw, the European currencies and the yen making new highs early in the day and then giving up these gains to close unchanged... More...
The Euro set a record high against the Dollar on Friday at 1.4967; the key 1.5000 level remained out of reach and the EurUsd fell back more than a cent, at 1.4839, on comments from a Euro zone... More...
Some balance has been returning to the forex markets in recent weeks, but the USD remains vulnerable on the downside. USD billions remain in the hands of oil exporters and the central banks of Asian manufacturers. That excess liquidity still needs a s More...
USD-CHF has seen losses for six weeks in a row. On Friday, the pair bounced back after hitting a low of 1.0896. This indicates that some kind of a consolidation may be seen this week. However, selling More...
The dollar fell versus the euro on Monday, retreating towards record lows set last week as investors saw little reason to change the view that more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are imminent.
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This week started off on a rather light note, with the only news on hand coming from Asia-Pacific region, leaving the greenback to falter overnight as carry trades gained steam.
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Is the current fall in the dollar almost a case of be careful what you wish for? In other words, is the sharp fall in the US currency finally a response to the size of its current account deficit and repeated calls for global imbalances to adjust? We expl More...
$/yen taking a breather with some pressure coming off its crosses but is still feeling the effects of last week’s sell-off. This has seen $/yen consolidate within 108-109 as the market approaches this latest easing of risk aversion with some caution. More...
The phrase “1.50 or bust” describes the current situation in the eur/usd with the market having failed on its serious run at this level last Friday but then finding support below 1.48 on the sharp setback. The market still has 1.50 on its radar and wo More...
No key data have been released today and nothing major is slated for later.
Markets are waiting for the U.S. to return to the markets following the extended Thanksgiving break. Dealers will be setting up now for the run into yearend.
The USD is lower More...
During the course of the week the dollar weakened significantly against some currencies. On
Friday morning, USD-JPY dropped to 107.55, almost 3% below its level at the end of last week. The US currency thus fell to a two-and-a-half year low against the y More...
On the Friday after Thanksgiving, when everyone in the US is recovering from their food related festivities, the dollar fell to a new record low against the Euro. US fundamentals have not changed and over the past 48 hours and there have been no new blowu More...
US Dollar Index Tonbridge AL Sunday November 25, 2007 - 21:24:45 GMT
USD Index 3 min video.
Did we short term bottom
Click on the link to launch the video in your browser More...
Gbp/Jpy Tonbridge AL Sunday November 25, 2007 - 21:19:09 GMT
2 min video
Click on the link and the video will open in a web browser More...
$/Cad Tonbridge AL Sunday November 25, 2007 - 20:59:55 GMT
2 min video
Click on the link and it will open in your browser More...
$/Chf Tonbridge AL Sunday November 25, 2007 - 20:53:28 GMT
2 min video click on the link an dit will open in a browser More...
The dollar marked time during Thanksgiving, but all eyes should be on the carry trades. This means dollar/yen should encounter further selling pressure. The European currencies should struggle... More...
The Dollar took another beating early this morning, dropping to record lows against the Euro, the Swiss franc and a basket of currencies because of a growing view that the US Federal Reserve ... More...
In what is quickly becoming a Thanksgiving tradition, the currency markets went for a wild, volatile ride tonight as the EURUSD rose more than 100 points in less than two hours, coming within the range of the key 1.50 level, before dropping just as quickl More...
The euro set fresh record highs versus the dollar on Friday, but the $1.50 level proved out of reach as the euro was knocked more than a cent off its peak by comments from a euro zone policymaker.
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After breaking through the Stops and options knockout below 1.1000 to record a Low of 1.0887 earlier today, USD-CHF has bounced back to a high so far near 1.1049. Intraday, the Resistance currently ar More...
This is virtually a holiday session in the U.S. Japan was closed earlier. Today is a half-day session for most U.S. markets.
Eurozone PMI data were mixed.
The USD made new lows vs. some key units earlier. It subsequently has bounced back sharply in th More...
EZ PMI flash estimates mixed. Mfg stronger than expected. Services weaker.
Australia elections over the weekend could impact AUD. A new labor (ALP) government is expected after many years of conservative rule. In the past, a government change has result More...
US Thanksgiving holiday. The Yen surged to its highest level against the Dollar in more than two years on Wednesday as investors pared back exposure to risky trades on worries about credit market ... More...
USD-CHF has continued with its declining spree and yesterday was its 13 down day out of last 14. It is very laskluster today so far, and is just short of touching its important Support (Option barrier More...
Overall, today has been relatively quiet as the US is on holiday. Economic data was steady, however nothing market moving was released. Most notably on the data front was the weaker than expected industrial new orders data in the Euro-Zone. More...
As expected holiday thinned markets produced very little meaningful price action. EURUSD spent most of the night consolidating in 1.4830 area, with the latest EZ economic data providing little help to the unit. More...
The dollar hit new record lows against the euro, the Swiss franc and a basket of currencies on Thursday amid a growing belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month. More...
The price action in the financial markets today reminds us of the price action that we saw back in August when the Federal Reserve shocked the markets by lowering the discount rate. Surprisingly, our wave déjà vu comes not from the sharp drop in carry t More...
The Canadian dollar ended loweragainst the U.S. currency on Wednesday as weak domestic data
and talk of a Bank of Canada rate cut took the focus away from upbeat fundamentals like high oil and gold More...
NZD falls as AUD gets smashed. The NZD traded erratically within a 0.7590 – 0.7620 range early yesterday as it continued to closely mirror movements in the Dow. The NZD eventually moved higher as it played catch-up to the euro in illiquid trading condit More...
The dollar suffered a big sell-off versus the European currencies The dollar suffered a big sell-off against the European currencies after the Fed warned that the housing crisis... More...
The yen surged to its highest level against the dollar in more than two years on Wednesday as investors pared back exposure to risky trades on worries about credit market losses and the health of the U.S. economy.
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Carry trade unwinds have been the name of the game. Some noting that some of the weakness results from an unwinding of JPY financed positions.
JPY is strength has also been driving the high-yielding currencies weaker.
FOMC meeting minutes indicating a More...
Equity Indices around the world lose ground as the flight to safety intensifies. Credit market worries persist after the FOMC minutes, outlook and comments from Treasury Sec. Paulson exacerbated fears that the weakness in housing has yet to fully filter t More...
The Dollar slid to a record low versus the Euro on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve said a housing slump, tighter credit conditions and high oil prices would likely slow US economic growth in 2008... More...
Overall the session can be characterized as quiet. The general sentiment amongst market participants is once of uncertainty. On the speaker front, uncertainty about the extent of subprime, and the war of words over FX levels continue circulate. More...
UUT OH! Black Swan Capital Wednesday November 21, 2007 - 13:01:45 GMT
Is this thing about to get away from our seemingly omnipotent central bankers?
In other words: Paper here, paper there, and we still have a credit problem.
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The dollar hit a record low against the euro and a basket of major currencies on Wednesday and the yen rose sharply as concerns on the health of the U.S. economy and global credit markets saw investors flee risky carry trades.
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AUD-USD had a sharp collapse during the day to a low of 0.8653 during the day. If this fall below 0.8750 is sustained on a closing basis, then there could be a fall towards 0.8500 in the next few days More...
The JPY is stronger again and this is driving the high-yielding currencies weaker.
FOMC meeting minutes sent mixed messages. Low growth scenario suggests lower rates in the future.
$100 per barrel watch for oil today.
The commodity currencies are we More...
More worries about the deepening effects of the credit crunch pushed global equity indices lower tonight taking USDJPY below the 109.00 figure for the first time since June of 2005 as carry trades were liquidated across the board.
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$/yen has extended its low with through a key 108.96-97 target. This breakdown exposes 108.15 as the next target although 108.00 is likely more important in determining whether the market goes after More...
Eur/$ extending its record high to 1.4856 but then succumbing to offset selling out of a fresh bout of risk aversion and carry trade unwinding (e.g. eur/yen selling). This has seen eur/$ back off to pivot 1.48 for the second day More...
The US dollar has fallen to new record lows against the Euro and Swiss Franc, leading many traders to wonder how much longer this weakness can continue. Unfortunately, we do not think an end will come anytime soon because the dollar’s selloff is causing More...
The Canadian dollar rose versusthe greenback on Tuesday as a late rally in equity markets and
higher commodity prices boosted the currency, even as tame inflation data suggested the Bank of Canada More...
The dollar slid to a record low versus the euro on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve said a housing slump, tighter credit conditions and high oil prices would likely slow U.S. economic growth in 2008.
More...
FOMC meeting minutes sent mixed messages. Low growth scenario suggests lower rates in the future.
Early rumors, reportedly out of Hong Kong that the Fed would hold an emergency meeting today to decide to cut rates are said to have started the USD lower. More...
US FOMC minutes, Oct 31 meeting. The minutes to the Oct 30-31 FOMC meeting revealed that “many members noted that this policy decision (the 25bp rate cut) was a close call”, although only one (Hoenig, Kansas City Fed) actually dissented. There was wid More...
Still waiting for the FOMC meeting minutes.
Early rumors, reportedly out of Hong Kong that the Fed would hold an emergency meeting today to decide to cut rates are said to have started the USD lower. It could be that they were focused on the release of More...
Markets await new Fed meting minutes formate this afternoon in U.S.
BOE policy meeting minutes a feature for Wednesday.
Wednesday will be a half-day session with U.S. data due.
Key Canadian inflation data not as bad as feared. Perhaps, this explains More...
The dollar fell against the European currencies but edged up against the yen, which means the demand for yen crosses has returned. Again, expect choppy trading today amid nervous oil and stock trading More...
The Dollar declined against the Yen on Monday, but held steady versus the Euro as a global rout in stock markets and higher oil prices raised concern about the health of the US economy ... More...
AUD-USD has rallied sharply off the lows of 0.8759 seen earlier today and has once again taken Support near 0.8750. This level is very important and a break below that on a closing basis (if seen) More...
The general market tone has been one of continued market jitters as the fear of further sub-prime losses is on everyone's mind. The Dollar is weaker on the back of speculation around a possible depegging in the Middle East, as well as rumors of a possible More...
The dollar fell to record lows against the euro and the Swiss franc on Tuesday, while the low-yielding yen sold off broadly as strong stock markets heralded a return of risk appetite.
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After a dropping for most of the Asian session, EURUSD staged a vicious one-way rally that took the pair to record highs by early European trade. Aided by positive equity markets and hotter than expected PPI data, the EURUSD verticalized for nearly 100 po More...
This was quite a head fake with a reversal of carry trade flows leading to a sharp turnaround and a scramble that saw the eur/usd surge to a new record high as the dollar fell elsewhere except vs. yen. More...
$/yen continues to be driven by carry trade flows and a reversal has led to some sharp movements on Tuesday. As we noted on GVI last night, what has been working is More...
Early rumors, reportedly out of Hong Kong that the Fed would hold an emergency meeting today to decide to cut rates are said to have started the USD lower. It could be that they were focused on the release of the Oct 31 meeting minutes this afternoon.
R More...
The US dollar is up across the board but that strength is more of a reflection of rising risk aversion than a rosier outlook for the US economy. Stocks are down over 200 points, bond yields have plummeted, carry trades resumed their weakness and gold pri More...
The Canadian dollar ended lowerversus the greenback on Monday as comments on the weekend by Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge triggered talk of an interest-rate cut, but higher oil prices More...
Risk aversion remains the theme. The JPY has gained vs. Europe also USD/CHF made new lows for the move as carry trades were unwound.
The commodity currencies are ending weaker.
U.S. equities fell sharply, while fixed income prices have gained.
This More...
The dollar declined against the yen on Monday, but held steady versus the euro as a globalrout in stock markets and higher oil prices raised concern about the health of the U.S. economy and left investors wary of risky trades.
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NZD weaker overall but stronger against the AUD. After opening around 0.7560 yesterday the NZD quickly moved higher as it played catch-up to a stronger AUD. However, without any events or data to provide direction, the currency was unable to convincingly More...
n currencies, FX Dealers expressed a continued concern about the upward pressure on LIBOR rates, citing that 2yr swap spreads at/near historic levels. The spread managed to widen by another 2bps in today's session. More...
Markets seem to be taking the OPEC oil price redemonination threat in stride. Everyone but oil sellers have an interest in paying USD. By letting their currencies rise, they can cheapen the local currency cost of energy.
This week sees the major U.S. ho More...
U.S. NAHB index due later today.
Key Canadian inflation data slated for Tuesday.
More U.S. Housing data due as well.
Wednesday will be a hald-day session with U.S. data due. More...
Forex markets have moved into a transitional period. The recent period of USD weakness against key European currencies has moved into a consolidation phase, but its bias technically remains to the downside. What has changed significantly is that the exces More...
The yen strengthened on Monday, as investors' appetite for risk was dented by worries of more trouble in the global financial sector and consequent falls in equity markets.
More...
Interest rate sentiment has shifted in the UK in the past month following the release of November’s Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) from the Bank of England. It was made very clear in the report that the next move in UK official short term interest rat More...
Please note that the USD-CHF is now coming close to the level of 1.10, where a huge number of Option Knock-Outs are present. Since most of these KOs have been SOLD to Corporates, one might expect the More...
Currency markets traded in a relatively tight range at the start of holiday-shortened week, driven mainly by equity flows as the economic calendar remained barren providing little fresh news flow for FX traders. EURUSD made a half hearted attempt to run f More...
$/yen continues to be driven by the level of risk aversion and this is the case again today. As noted in EUR/USD Chart Points, this is typically a week where the market trades defensively as liquidity becomes a factor More...
This is typically a week where the market trades defensively as liquidity becomes a factor as the US is essentially closed from mid-day Wednesday onwards for the Thanksgiving break. This argues in favor of risk aversion More...
Markets seem to be taking the OPEC oil price redemomination threat in stride. The story is not new.
This week sees the major U.S. holiday (Thanksgiving Day) on Thursday. U.S. markets will close effectively from mid-Wednesday onwards.
Risk aversion rem More...
The US dollar faltered through end-of-week currency trading, as a marginal improvement in risk appetite and disappointing economic data combined to sink the greenback against major forex counterparts. More...
The Canadian dollar capped a losing week in which it touched a five-week low with a sharp gain of more than 1 U.S. cent on Friday, as the greenback
trickled lower after some weak U.S. economic data. More...
The dollar slid on Friday, but was on track for its biggest weekly gain against a basket of major currencies in over a month despite uncertainty in the credit market.
More...
Financial markets’ attention is still focused on the credit crisis. The main topics under discussion include the necessity for banks to reveal further asset writedowns, increasing credit spreads on commercial property loans, the possibility of rating ag More...
Friday has been a session where dealers play "equity roulette".
Next week sees a major U.S. holiday (Thanksgiving Day) at the end of the week. U.S. markets will close effectively from mid-Wednesday onwards.
Risk aversion remains the theme. Libor rates More...
The dollar went sideways against the euro and franc but rallied versus the pound and fell against the yen, which makes the GBP/JPY a nice cross to sell. Expect choppy trading today amid nervous oil... More...
AUD-JPY is leading the AUD-USD on the downside and the immediate Support for the former is at 96.90-80. Below that the Support would come in at 96.00. More...
The yen strengthened on Friday as jittery investors took cues from falling stock markets to continue a move out of relatively risky carry trades funded by cheap borrowing in the Japanese currency.
More...
A very quiet night to the end week’s trade, as EURUSD essentially bounced around the 1.4600 level in whippy price action driven mainly by equity flows. The one piece of economic data proved positive for the EZ as Trade Balance registered a better than e More...
Rising risk aversion again weighing on $/yen out of firmer yen crosses but so far this has only seen a pivot of 110. This leaves the onus on the bear side to establish below 110 to expose a risk for the recent 109.12 low and key 108.96-97 support. More...
The pre-U.S. Thanksgiving period is normally one where the market does not have a large risk appetite but this time around it is being heightened by a fresh bout of credit risk inspired risk aversion. This is weighing on the eur/usd although so far it see More...
Friday looks to be a cautious session with dealaers in a defensive posture into the weekend and holidays at the end of next week in the U.S.
U.S. equities fell late Thuresday and bond prices soared in North America.
Risk aversion remains the theme.
More...
Fed Industrial Production data are awaited.
U.S. TIC data due. Recent data have not been having much of a market impact.
European data in line.
More...
The US dollar has strengthened against all of the high yielding currencies today, but have we seen the last of dollar weakness? Even though inflation and manufacturing data were decent, and gold prices plummeted as much as $30 intraday, the outlook for t More...
The Canadian dollar tumbled against the U.S. currency on Thursday due as equity markets
skidded again, while weak domestic manufacturing data hinted at a Bank of Canada rate cut early next year. More...
U.S. equities fell late and bond prices soared Thursday in North American trading.
Risk aversion has remained the theme. The JPY was bid and the high yielders down.
The commodity currencies are sharply weaker.
Renewed worries about the liquidity of More...
Risk appetite or risk aversion? In a complete turnaround from the previous day low yielding currencies all strengthened yesterday as concern over credit-market losses and falling stocks prompted investors to cut holdings of higher-yielding assets. This sa More...
Risk aversion has remained the theme of the day. The JPY is bid and the high yielders are down across the board.
The commodity currencies are weaker.
Equities are seen opening lower later. More...
Philly Fed survey still due today.
U.S. TIC data due tomorrow. Recent data have not been having much of a market impact.
October U.S. CPI inflation data were in line. Weekly jobless saw a worri More...
The dollar slipped against the euro and franc but rallied versus the pound and the yen. The pound fell after the BoE inferred rate cuts next year. Expect choppy trading today... More...
The Dollar slipped on Wednesday as worries about the struggling US housing sector and lingering credit problems weighed on sentiment, leaving the Dollar's long-term downtrend intact... More...
This has been quite a week for the UK, a rollercoaster from one big number to another. Unlike figures earlier in the week retail sales fell below consensus estimates and were accompanied by downward revisions to September's readings. More...
AUD-USD has had a sharp fall during the day, and the pair is very possibly headed towards 0.8800 in the next 24 hours. For today, the immediate Support is at 0.8860. More...
The yen rose versus the euro and dollar on Thursday and high yielding currencies dipped as concerns about the effects of the credit crunch and falling equity markets led investors to pare back risky carry trades. More...
UK retail sales registered their first negative reading since April of this year and sent cable crashing through the 2.0500 barrier as traders feared that the slowdown in consumer spending would accelerate BoE’s monetary easing plans. The news on the c More...
Risk aversion is the theme of the day today. The JPY is bid and the high yielders are down.
The commodity currencies are weaker.
The EUR is softer as JPY carry's are unwound.
Renewed worries about the liquidity of the LIBOR markets today. Await the More...
October U.S. CPI inflation data due. Critical for marjet view on Fed policy.
Other U.S. data including weekly jobless and energy inventories among others are slated as well.
Japanese Tertiary Activity index weaker than expected.
EZ final HICP in More...
$/yen retreating after a failure to test 112 with a fresh bout of carry trade unwinding providing the catalyst. However, it has been a combination of a weaker $/yen and firmer dollar elsewhere doing the damage, which has so far More...
EUR/USD is trading soft after another stall above 1.47 as offsets from a fresh bout of carry trade unwinding weigh on the pair. However, so far it has been an inside day with most damage being done in gbp More...
Ben Bernanke is making major changes at the Federal Reserve, ones that will probably be apart of his legacy. According to Bernanke’s speech this morning about changing FOMC communications, More...
The Canadian dollar finished lower versus the U.S. currency on Wednesday as comments from a Bank of Canada official and the pace of recent rises convinced
the market to pocket gains.
More...
he dollar slipped on Wednesday as worries about the struggling U.S. housing sector and lingering credit problems weighed on sentiment, leaving the dollar's long-term downtrend intact. More...
Wednesday was another volatile session. Difficult for anyone other than a day-trader. EUR/USD could not hold above 1.4700.
Equities were driving USD/JPY lower in afternoon trading. Divergence at the end of the dafter the FASB 157 ruling was delayed for More...
Tuesday saw the dollar make a corrective decline versus the commodity and the European currencies and an aggressive rally against the yen after the overdone move a day earlier... More...
Yen eases as equity markets recover. The yen fell against most currencies overnight as concerns eased that losses related to subprime mortgages are spreading. Bear Stearns announced that it reduced its holdings of subprime assets by 50% in the past two mo More...
•Credit concerns and write-downs pummel stocks and risky assets
•Signs of a USD recovery are building
•Eurozone finance ministers meet Monday/Tuesday
•Heavy data schedule all around next week
More...
There was no overall theme, but plenty of news to drive volatility higher among numerous currency pairs. GBP exhibited a high degree of choppiness after the BOE's quarterly inflation report referred to a possible interest rate cut by Q1 2008. The GBP slid More...
Recall those reported EUR/USD offers last week at 1.4700? The EUR/USD traded therough that line but it has not held. We've heard no rumors of specific sellers or levels.
It looks as though equities have been driving USD/JPY lower. Or maybe its vice-vers More...
The Dollar fell against most major currencies on Tuesday, resuming a long-term decline after a respite the previous session as investors expected further signs of housing weakness and sluggish ... More...
Twisted! Black Swan Capital Wednesday November 14, 2007 - 12:57:03 GMT
Yesterday the British pound surged on higher than expected inflation numbers. After being up over 100 pips this morning, the pound was crushed lower on news the BOE may cut rates next year ... More...
Thus far the session can be summarized by tight, strong equity market trading, slightly higher commodity prices, and a softer Yen. The bond auctions in the Euro-Zone were relatively favorable. Economic data in the Euro-Zone was roughly in line with consen More...
Tuesday corrections after Monday liquidations have continued.
Recall those reported BIS EUR/USD offers last week at 1.4700? EUR/USD is back at thatt level.
A sustained move back into carry trades is unlikely.
The commodity currencies are better vs. More...
The yen fell on Wednesday and high yielding currencies rallied as stronger equity markets bolstered risk appetite, prompting investors to move back into carry trades.
More...
EURUSD continued its climb in overnight trade making its way back to the 1.4700 level, boosted by supportive global equity price action which spurred the return of the carry trade flows in the currency market. As the Nikkei, Footsie and Dax all rallied in More...
$/yen pause above 108.96-97 stalled the downside but it has been a recovery in carry trads demand that has helped push it higher. This has seen $/yen come within 4 pips of its former 111.60 low/breakout level that is so far holding. As we noted yesterday, More...
EUR/USD extending its recovery with demand coming from two fronts, a further bounce in carry trades led by eur/yen and a firmer eur/gbp after the BOE inflation report signaled rate cut risk lies ahead. This has seen eur/usd test 1.47+ but remain below the More...
Even though the US dollar has seen some big moves over the past two trading days, the volatility was not triggered by a shift in the market’s attitude towards the dollar but instead by the sharp swings in the US equity markets and carry trades. This dy More...
Liquidating markets Monday saw corrections on Tuesday.
Position traders have been hurt and many now are likely to resort to hit-and-run trading tactics into the pre-Christmas break.
Recall those reported BIS EUR/USD offers last week at 1.4700? If true More...
The Canadian dollar finished higher against the U.S. greenback on Tuesday as carry trades made a comeback, but a decline in oil prices tempered the
gain. More...
The dollar fell against most major currencies on Tuesday, resuming a long-term decline after a respite the previous session as investors expected further signs of housing weakness and sluggish consumer spending that could hurt U.S. economic growth.
More...
The USD gave up ground against most currencies overnight but did manage to recover from an 18 month low against the yen. Japanese GDP data and a ‘no change’ BoJ interest rate decision failed to stir the market however comments from Japan’s Prime min More...
JPY steadily retraced throughout the Asian and European sessions after Monday's sharp gains. EUR/JPY cross regained a foothold above the 161 handle, GBP/JPY up 300 pips toward 229.00 level and USD/JPY above 110 figure. Carry trade assisted by limited US e More...
Position traders have been hurt and many now are likely to resort to hit-and-run trading tactics into the pre-Christmas break.
Recall those reported BIS EUR/USD offers last week at 1.4700? If true, they worked.
Unlikely to see a rush back into carry t More...
Economic announcements due today will shed some more light on speculation that the Euro-zone economies are beginning to feel the pinch of the credit markets. Another sign of slight dollar strength was the drop in the price of Gold. More...
Just when it looks safe to dip a toe or more in the risk aversion pool, snap goes the Great White from down under. Off almost 3 cents to the dollar yesterday ... More...
The yen fell from Monday's 18-month peak against the dollar on Tuesday after comments from Japan's prime minister on the carry trade prompted dealers to call an abrupt halt to the unwinding of of these positions that had pushed the yen higher in recent da More...
USD-CHF has had little move during the day, after the pullback yesterday. However, it continues to be pressurized, while below 1.1350 on a daily close basis. More...
EURUSD made a run at the 1.4600 figure in early London trade but the worst investor confidence reading in almost 15 years stymied the pair’s rebound as the costs of record high exchange rate are starting to negatively impact sentiment in the region. Th More...
U.S. and Canadian markets will be back in full swing following holiday closures on Monday. U.S. equities were open.
Monday saw a major unwind of JPY carry trades (repatiations?). Markets now are in a risk reduction mind-set. Tuesday has seen some recove More...
Japan GDP better than expected.
No policy change was expected from BOJ.
U.K. Inflation hotter than expected.
German ZEW signals slowing economy. More...
The MOF and the market like to think in terms of 10 big figure usd/jpy ranges and in this regard, 105-115 is likely to be viewed as the current range. This also increases the significance of the 110 midpoint of this range, a level pivoted 2 days in a row, More...
EUR/USD recovering after holding off a run at 1.45 but rebound would need to get through 1.4665-79 to expose the record 1.4753 high again. This comes in a market that continues to be driven by the level of risk aversion as measured by equity movements and More...
Carry Trades: Are They In for More Losses?
With the US bond markets closed for Veterans’ Day, the equity and currency markets were as volatile as ever. More...
Moimday was a holiday for Canada and a partial holiday for the U.S. (equities were open).
Plenty of sub-prime chatter.
Equities (except Europe were hit again). Europe was mixed.
There was been a major unwind of JPY carry trades (repatiations?). Euro More...
Risk aversion sees NZD under pressure. The NZD opened with a slight bearish tone yesterday morning, with the currency seeing some early selling pressure on the back of AUD weakness and JPY strength. A lack of liquidity also made it difficult for traders t More...
The dollar rose sharply on Monday, reversing some of its recent losses as nervousness about credit-related losses at U.S. banks triggered a wave of risk reduction in light volume.
More...
As energy costs surge, financial firms’ write-off huge subprime mortgage-related losses and shaky US equity markets, the dollar got hit on Friday in a selective fashion. The carry trades took a hit... More...
Some feel that the USD could be a turning point vs. the EUR, but that remains to be seen. Trade in recent sessions has been dominated by an unwinding of JPY carry trades. For now this unwinding has been a weight on a number of units vs. the USD. At the mo More...
The yen sprinted to an 18-month high against the dollar on Monday as investors unwound risky carry trades due to nervousness over credit-related losses at U.S. financial firms and weak global equity markets.
More...
While markets will continue to focus on news of write-downs on mortgage-related securities, they will also be occupied with a heavy week of UK and US economic data releases and reports, More...
GBP-USD hit a high of 2.1163 on Friday and has come off very sharply from there, clearly being pressurized by GBP-JPY, which has fallen below its 200-Day MA of 237.30. Importantly GBP-JPY is currently More...
Today is a holiday for Canada and a partial holiday for the U.S. (equities are open).
Plenty of sub-prime chatter.
Asian equities (see below were hit hard again. Europe is mixed. Mixed outlook for the U.S. Treasuries ar closed today.
Its an active s More...
GVI BOJ Policy Meeting Preview
Decision: November 13
Current Overnight Target Rate: 0.50%
Expected decision: No change.
Despite a lot of empty bluster by the central bank, no increase in rates is likely from the BOJ anytime soon. Note below that More...
It has been an extremely active week in the financial markets with the Dow falling over 500 points, the US dollar hitting a fresh record low against the Euro and carry trades breaking down. Traders who thrive on volatility should not be disappointed in t More...
The Canadian dollar fell against the U.S. currency for a third straight session on Friday, its latest drop coming after weak domestic trade surplus data. More...
The Japanese yen hit a 1-1/2 year high against the dollar on Friday as fears of wider credit-related losses at U.S. financial firms dulled investors' appetite for risk, causing an unwinding of carry trades.
More...
The yen hit a 1-1/2 year high against the dollar on Friday as fears of wider credit-related losses at U.S. financial firms dulled investors' appetite for risk, causing an unwinding of carry trades.
More...
Updated Yield Curves. A lot to wade through but worth the effort. Note Canadian inversion is gone. Only remaining inversion in Australia and still headed south. More...
Trigger for JPY spike appears was rumors of a significant CNY adjustment ahead of the upcoming (Nov 28) EU/China economic summit.
Plenty of sub-prime chatter, but factual headlines were thin.
This was a half-day session in North America ahead of Monda More...
EUR-USD seems to be moving in one direction only. The euro leapt to a fresh high of 1.4752 this week, and ended the week only slightly below this. The greenback also lost ground against other major currencies such as the yen, the pound, and the Australian More...
The dollar slumped to 1-1/2 year lows against the yen, as investors sold the U.S. currency in favour of safe haven assets in the wake of concerns about the health of the financial sector and expectations of U.S. rate cuts.
More...
Trigger for USD slide appears to be rumors of a significant CNY adjustment ahead of the upcoming (Nov 28) EU/China economic summit.
A stronger CNY would give the JPY a lift, so USD/JPY has tumbled.
This is a half-day session in North America ahead of More...
USD/JPY breaking down with the move through the key 111.60 driven by unwinding of carry crosses. This has seen next key support at 110.96 tested More...
EUR/USD extending its record high again but then backing off to pivot 1.47 as yen (and a lesser extent chf) cross offsets cap its upside as carry trade unwinding dominates. More...
The dollar is getting hit against the Europeans and the yen. The yen is the big winner on the Chinese yuan news this morning. The Comdols are getting whacked. Is risk aversion rearing its head ... More...
The dollar hit record lows against the euro and a 1-1/2 year trough against the yen on Friday as a warning from the Federal Reserve chief on U.S. economic growth reinforced interest rate cut expectations, which in turn aided battered stocks.
More...
The US dollar remained weak as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke killed any chance for a dollar rally. In his testimony to Congress today, Bernanke commented on the upside risks to inflation but focused more on the downside risks to growth. More spe More...
U.S. stocks and the dollar fell on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said a weak housing market and high oil prices would slow U.S. growth in the fourth quarter and keep it sluggish in early 2008.
More...
The Canadian dollar closed loweragainst the greenback on Thursday as investors took profits and
Canada's finance minister voiced concern over the domestic currency's rapid rise one day after it More...
Yield curves. a lot to digest, but worth the study. Extremes in terms of recent movement are U.S. (steepening) and Australia (deep inversion). Steepening implies a stronger economy while inversion implies a slower econony.
More...
Markets are closing cautiously ahead of a half-day session Friday in the U.S.
CB decisions were as expected with no changes in key target rates. ECB President Trichet might have engaged in some verbal tightening, but did not signal a future policy tight More...
CB decisions were as expected with no changes in key target rates. ECB President Trichet might have engaged in some verbal tightening, but did not signal a future policy tightening. By use of the code word "brutal", he engaged in verbal forex intervention More...
The Dollar tumbled to a record low against the Euro on Wednesday after comments by a Chinese official stoked fears the Central Bank of the world's fourth-largest economy would reduce its holdings... More...
Market ECB policy view. Bias is for higher rates, but odds of a rate hike fall over time. No cuts in sight... More...
Currency Currents Black Swan Capital Thursday November 8, 2007 - 12:05:50 GMT
Yesterday, over the course of one trading session, we start with extreme across-the-board dollar weakness and finished off the day mixed with a smell of risk-aversion in the air.
More...
Expect more hawkish talk on inflation.
Forex will certainly be mentioned in the press conference. Key is if it is in the policy statement. Opinions are slplit on whether it will be cited.
Weak forex comment will be seen as an accepance of current More...
A very quiet night of consolidation in Asian and early European sessions today, after last night’s fireworks that took the EURUSD to new record highs above the 1.4700 figure. The currency markets are now focused on guidance from monetary authorities a More...
Focus on the CB decisions over the next few hours. ECB expected to hold policy steady and signal no change for December. Hawkish inflation stance will persist. Qusetions persist on whether Trichet will comment on EUR. If it is not mentioned the USD likely More...
$/jpy bounce from 112 cooling the downside as a bounce in yen carry crosses provided some support. This also leaves the remaining key support at 111.60 safe for now but a move back above 113.25, at a minimum, would be needed to slow the risk although More...
Today: Will ECB Trichet protest EUR strength?
U.S. initial jobless awaited.
Bernanke at 15:00 GMT.
Japanese core machinery orders substantially weaker than expected. Further weakens case for rate hikes. More...
The eur/usd has so far traded an inside day as it consolidates below its new 1.4731 high ahead of Trichet’s press conference following the ECB rate decision (no change widely expected) and Bernanke’s testimony to the Joint Economic Committee. Of the t More...
The dollar teetered close to its all-time lows against the euro on Thursday as the market waited to see whether the European Central Bank would voice concern about the sharp rally in the single currency.
More...
Being short US dollars has been the best trade in the currency market this year because it has fallen against everything in sight. Today, it dropped to a record low against the Euro and Canadian dollar and multi-decade lows against the British pound and A More...
The Canadian dollar fell sharply from record highs against the U.S. currency late in the North American session on Wednesday and was headed for a lower close as oil prices dropped from their all-time peak.
More...
Verbal forex intervention may not be far away. After taking a big hit earlier, the USD is still on the back foot again and there are growing worries about the pace of its decline.
Some say that the BIS could have been in offering EUR/USD at the 1.4700 l More...
Morning Report Thursday 8 November 2007
New Zealand dollar
NZD rallies to three month high then fails. The NZD rallied strongly for much of Wednesday as questions continue to arise about the depth of the credit crisis and the resulting weaker USD. T More...
The USD resumed its broad slide in value against the majors and commodity-relayed pairs with comments from China providing today's catalyst. Top China political adviser Cheng Siwei stated that China should diversify its $1.43T FX reserves into stronger cu More...
After taking a big hit earlier, the USD is on the back foot again today and there are growing worries about the pace of its decline. Verbal forex intervention may not be far away.
Some suggest that the BIS could have been in offering EUR/USD at the 1.47 More...
Key data from Japan on Thursday.
Aus employment data could hold key to timing of next rate hike?
Big Question: will ECB Trichet protest EUR strength? More...
The Dollar sank to record lows against the Euro and a basket of major currencies on Tuesday as bleak warnings of more pain in the credit sphere reinforced views of a Federal Reserve rate cut ... More...
The dollar fell on Wednesday to historic lows of $1.47 per euro and $2.10 to the pound on expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts to limit damage from an ailing housing market.
More...
Yields on U.S. 2s and 10s continue to tumble. Suggests no serious worry about the USD yet. If this were a real crisis bonds would be in crisis. More...
In the November monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion website, sentiment for the USD against the EUR has deteriorated. The three-month ahead mean forecast for EUR/USD was 1.4563 from 1.414 More...
USD-CHF has had a climatic plunge (once again) during the day in which it tested a low of 1.1287, near its Dec-2004 Low of 1.1285. As of now, that is holding. More...
The USD is on the back foot again today and there are growing worries about the pace of its decline. Many feel that verbal forex intervention is not far away.
This has been a poor session for the USD after a Chinese advisor suggested that reserves shoul More...
RBA hikes cash target +25bps to 6.75%. Policy statement was hawkish
Key U.S. focus will be oil inventories with $100 oil in sight.
Key CB meetings on Thursday. More...
The dollar collapsed completely tonight in Asian and early European trade after Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the National People's Congress stated that China should invest its nearly $1.5 Trillion of FX reserves in stronger currencies.
More...
Eur/$ surging farther into uncharted territory where the most recent high and pivotal big figures take on added importance. On the downside, the eur/$ surge has left an absence of support, closest being More...
The dollar sank to record lows against the euro and a basket of major currencies on Tuesday as bleak warnings of more pain in the credit sphere reinforced views of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
More...
The Reserve Bank of Australia increased interest rates for the second time this year to 6.75 percent. This is the first time ever that the central bank has increased rates when an election is underway. This unprecedented move highlights the degree of in More...
The Canadian dollar raced to a new modern-day high and closed comfortably above US$1.08 on
Tuesday, helped by a surge in commodity prices, a weaker greenback and stability in global equity markets. More...
RBA expected to hike rates by +25bps at 21:30 GMT.
Ongoing write-down rumors a worry for rumors.
USD reportedly saw sell orders again today from sovereign holders.
The markets are looking ahead to the ECB policy signal for December on Thursday. Nove More...
Indices slip into negative territory weighed down by higher energy prices and continued worries about Goldman Sachs. Even after Goldman denied fresh write down rumors yesterday towards to close of trade, chatter resurfaced today opening the door for more More...
Malaise in equity markets persists on ongoing write-down rumors.
USD reportedly saw sell orders again today from sovereign holders.
the markets are looking ahead to the ECB policy signal for December on Thursday. November rates will most likely be hel More...
RBA expect +25bps to 7.25%.
Key U.S. focus will be oil inventories.
EZ PMI update of flash estimate stronger than expected. German Industrial Orders weaker than seen.. More...
AUD-USD has been firm in the day so far however it continues to be ranged within 0.9100 on the downside and 0.9350 on the upside. In the immediate short term, the Resistance is at 0.9300. More...
EURUSD resumed its uptrend in early European trade today as it once again challenged all time highs set last Friday at 1.4528. Boosted by a rebound in European equity markets and better than expected economic results from the Euro-zone, the pair continues More...
We will be waiting to see if the malaise in equity markets on Monday carries forward into the latter part of the week.
the markets are looking ahead to the ECB policy signal for December on Thursday. November rates will most likely be held steady. The b More...
E-Z PMI just an update of flash estimate stronger than expected. German Industrial Orders as well.
E-Z retail sales and PPI also stronger than seen. Strengthens sentiment for a rate hike in 1Q08. More...
Eur/$ extending its 1.45 pivot to 3 days in a row and also extending its record high, once again by 2 pips (so far). This also continues a pattern of short-lived correction attempts that seem to occur on a Monday, usually driven by a bout of risk aversio More...
The dollar struck fresh all-time lows against the euro and a basket of major currencies in early European trade on Tuesday as the market retained its negative assessment of the U.S. economy.
More...
The most commonly asked question in the currency market these days is “When Will the US dollar Reach a Bottom?” Every time we have any sort of mild dollar rally like the one we had today, More...
U.S. stocks wilted on Monday after Citigroup warned of billions of dollars in loan losses, reigniting fears about the health of financial firms and the broader U.S. economy.
The dollar slipped against the Japanese currency as investors abandoned risky More...
The Canadian dollar edged higher against the U.S. currency on Monday and extended its charge to
historic highs as momentum managed to offset a drag from lower oil prices. More...
Malaise has been evident in equity markets on Monday ahead of the ECB policy signal for December on Thursday. November rates are most likely to be held steady. The bias is for a future rate hike when conditions warrant.
Fed Chair Bernanke testifies on T More...
NZD remains supported despite equity market jitters. The NZD remained rangebound on Monday despite another equity market slump due to Citigroup’s continued woes and the resignation of the Chairman and CEO of the bank. NZ wages were up strongly in Q3, th More...
Nervous USD bears cncerned about the weakness in equities.
The focus today has been on the subprime situation and on credit spreads on worries about new larger than expected write-downs.
The JPY is firmer on hawkish bluster from the BOJ. More...
Weakness in Asian markets and another large write off by Citigroup spurred continued flight safety trades in the early going. S&P futures were down more than 10 handles heading into the open led by More...
The Fed -25 bp rate cut at its meeting last week could turn out to have been the worst case scenario for the USD. Equity markets had been hoping for an aggressive Fed easing (-50bp) to stimulate econo More...
The dollar fell across the board on Friday despite an exceptional, if unsustainably strong, non-farm payrolls report. The dollar is out of control, so stay short with a tight stop... More...
The yen rose across the board on Monday as global stock markets fell on worries of more credit-related troubles at U.S. banks, causing investors to reduce their exposure to risky assets and unwind carry trades.
More...
It is to Laugh ... Black Swan Capital Monday November 5, 2007 - 13:51:45 GMT
“We should make scientific judgment and analysis on what impact the massive funds flowing into Hong Kong’s financial market would have,” said Hong Kong’s prime minister Wen Jiabao.
More...
The October non-farm payrolls figures came out higher than expected at 166,000 versus 96,000 in September. The Canadian dollar continued rising with crude oil rising back to over $96 a barrel... More...
GBP-JPY is currently near its 200-Day MA of 237.38 and that is also expected to influence the GBP-USD. Should that 200-Day MA break on a daily basis, then it could pressurize the GBP-USD
More...
As trading began this week, the declines in Tokyo, Shanghai and Honk Kong stock markets pressured the carry trade in the currency market and dragged the EURUSD down below the 1.4500 figure. With the announcement over the weekend that Charles Prince of Ci More...
Recent events will keep attention focused on financial market developments in the US this week, with the potential for further sharp swings in equity prices and downward pressure on the dollar. Crude oil scaled a record $96 last week and could break $100 More...
$/yen so far breaking a 4 day pivot of 115, which would be a bearish signal but this would have be followed by a firm break of 114 and then 113.25 to suggest more than a narrowing range process. Pressure is coming out of rising risk aversion More...
Eur/$ again finding 1.45+ tough after extending its record high by another 2 pips to come within 22 pips of the $/dm equivalent all-time high (see above). Whether this level will become a factor is questionable More...
U.K. Service PMI was substantially weaker than expected.
BOJ still is intent on raising interest rates even thhough the economy and politics are not supportive of such a move.
U.S. Services PMI due. More...
The focus today is back on the subprime situation and on credit spreads on worries about new larger than expected write-downs.
LIBOR fixings will be watched.
The Hang Seng suffered another major loss on changes is expectations for mainland access to t More...
The dollar sank to record lows against the euro and a basket of major currencies on Friday as fears of major losses at financial firms overshadowed a strong U.S. payrolls report.
More...
Next to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, non-farm payrolls was the most anticipated event risk this week and it did live up to its reputation of being market moving, particularly on an intraday basis. However the reaction in the US dollar More...
The Canadian dollar capped off a historic week with a sharp gain against the U.S. currency on Friday, rising on a solid Canadian jobs report and another
surge in oil prices. More...
The dollar fell further versus the European and The commodity currencies on Wednesday while rallying against the yen. The market generally ignored the (subject to revision) strong US GDP report... More...
The battered U.S. dollar may rally in the week ahead after a week of relatively benign economic data indicated the economy is weathering problems in the housing and credit markets.
More...
Although the ECB might not meet its price stability target in 2008, this does not automatically mean that interest rates will be raised. But it is becoming evident that at least a few hawks in the ECB Council are tending towards a more restrictive interes More...
Markets surprised by the strength of U.S. and Canadian October employment data. Revisions were not a factor in the U.S. report.
Talk about British clearer having difficulty funding its portfolio went nowhere. However, there are non-specific concerns tha More...
The Yen rose broadly on Thursday after brokerages downgraded two of the largest US banks, stinging equities and sapping investor appetite for risk... More...
U.K. and U.S. service PMIs on Monday.
October U.S and Canadian employment data both considerably stronger than expected.
EZ mfg PMI same as flash.
CHF CPI higher than expected. More...
October non-farm payrolls +ve
Canadian employment very hot
Fukui wants to limit yen carry trades More...
Currency Currents Black Swan Capital Friday November 2, 2007 - 12:36:49 GMT
FX Trading – What if?
Balance sheet time bombs exploding in the night!
“Late lingerers in the office last Friday stopped and stared at the news that Moody’s had taken the ratings ax to $33 billion of collateralized debt obligations, some of w More...
AUD-JPY (105.33) also seems to be stabilizing after the sharp fall yesterday, with strong Support in at 104.40-30. This could help the AUD-USD, should the current gains in AUD-JPY accelerate. More...
Ahead of non-farm payrolls in the US the USD is weaker on circulating chatter that discrepancies in regional-state employment reports, and Friday's official release of non-farm payrolls could results in a significant downward revision to September's readi More...
Markets awaiting the U.S. and Canadian October employment data. The ADP data have lifted many estimates from the earlier +80K esitmates.
Talk that a British clearer is having difficulty funding its portfolio, and has had to tap the BOE. Denied by BOE.
More...
$/yen stall around its 20 day mva (115.70 today) yesterday was followed by a sharp retreat, triggered by carry trade unwinding as equities melted down. However, follow through has so far proved limited with crosses such as eur/yen stalling around pivotal More...
Eur/$ so far holding off the retracement attempt by not seriously threatening 1.4375 support, also helped by eur/yen holding the 165 area. This keeps the focus on 1.45 as the market heads into the U.S. October employment report More...
The dollar edged down towards record lows against a basket of currencies on Friday as investors looked to a key U.S. jobs report for clues on whether growth is soft enough to warrant another rate cut next month.
More...
The US dollar rebounded significantly today partly in reaction to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and partly in anticipation of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. Once again, bond traders got it right. More...
The Canadian dollar slipped from its modern-day high en route to a lower close versus the U.S.
currency on Thursday as oil prices eased from a record high and risk appetite diminished. More...
The yen rose broadly on Thursday after brokerages downgraded two of the largest U.S. banks, stinging equities and sapping investor appetite for risk.
More...
EUR/USD closing off its lows.
Markets are still adjusting following a volatile session on Wednesday, including the FOMC decision to ease rates by -25bps.
Fed policy statement was "balanced". Leaves the door open to future data dependency. More...
EUR/USD spike.. diversification?
Markets are still recovering following a volatile session on Wednesday, including the FOMC decision to ease rates by -25bps.
Fed policy statement was "balanced". Leaves the door open to future data dependency. More...
U.S. and Canadian employment due Friday.
U.S data mostly mixed.
Aus retail sales were stronger than expected. Supportive of a November rate hike.
U.K. manufacturing PMI was considerably weaker than forecast. EZ due Friday. More...
Key U.S. inflation data. You play the Fed! More...
Currency Currents Black Swan Capital Thursday November 1, 2007 - 12:36:24 GMT
Same Game?
Fed Funds rate cut by 25 basis points ==> Discount rate cut by 25 basis points ==> Fed statement reveals a hint of hawkishness ==> dollar falls.
More...
AUD-USD has been sideways during the day and it continues to trade near its Resistance of 0.9320-25, which comes on the trendline on the daily joining the highs of 0.8954 (01-Oct) and 0.9036 (08-Oct). More...
After reaching record lows against the euro in the wake of yesterday’s Fed’s 25bp rate hike, the dollar rebounded in early European trade as better than expected US economic data and a hawkish sounding FOMC communiqué put in doubt any further greenba More...
Markets are still recovering following a volatile session on Wednesday, including the FOMC decision to ease rates by -25bps.
Fed policy statement was "balanced". Leaves the door open to future data dependency.
Some European centerrs are closed due to More...
Aus retail sales were stronger than expected. Supportive of a November rate hike.
U.K. manufacturing PMI was considerably weaker than forecast. EZ due Friday.
More key U.S. data due today and on Friday. More...
$/yen maintaining a position above 115 to set a bid bias although some pressure has come off its crosses as the dollar recovers elsewhere. However, price action suggests market is using the yen again as the carry trade “whipping post” More...
Having achieved an objective by testing and taking out stops above 1.4500 yesterday, a reluctance to re-challenge this pivotal level today has seen some profit-taking take over. A pause should not be a surprise given More...
The dollar recovered from a record low against the euro on Thursday after the Federal Reserve cut rates as expected the previous day but dampened expectations of further monetary policy easing this year.
More...
The Canadian dollar raced toits highest level since the late 1800s against the U.S. currency on Wednesday, thanks to lofty oil prices and a weak
greenback after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates. More...
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp and the US dollar dropped to a new record low against the Euro and multi-decade lows against the British pound, Australian and Canadian dollars. The amount of easing was exactly what we expected, but the FOM More...
The dollar fell to a record low against the euro on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point and said the pace of U.S. economic growth will slow this year.
More...
USD closing lower heading after the FOMC decision to ease rates by -25bps.
Fed policy statement was balanced.
Traders had been set up for a -25 bp Fed rate cut. Post-decision trading was unusually volatile. More...
USD is now ticking lower heading into the FOMC decision.
Traders are set up for a -25 bp Fed rate cut. Any other outcome would be a major surprise.
The commodity currencies are firmer vs. the JPY.
Equities are trading higher. More...
There seems to be a consensus that the outlook for the UK corporate sector has deteriorated in the last three months since the US subprime-related credit crisis started, but has it? More...
FOMC decision due later. A -25bp rate cut seen as virtually certain.
EZ economic data mixed. Unemployment rose but so did HICP
ADP private jobs data and GDP were surprisingly strong. Chicago PMI was surprisingly weak. More...
The Dollar fell to a record low against the Euro on Tuesday for the third consecutive session as the market looked ahead to the outcome of a Federal Reserve meeting with most expecting an interest... More...
USD-CHF dipped to a low of 1.1565 during the day and then had a modest recovery towards 1.1624. We continue to expect significant sellers on rallies. However, there could be volatility later on. More...
The Federal Reserve will face a series of tough decisions over the next few months. This week’s meeting is no exception as the Fed battles with persistent fears over recession and potential inflation risks. More...
The dollar reached new lows in early European trade today, with EURUSD hitting 1.4468 while GBPUSD broke above the 2.0700 level as traders continued to sell the greenback ahead of the FOMC rate announcement at 14:15 GMT. The market widely expects the Fed More...
USD has turned weaker heading into the FOMC decision.
Traders setting up for a -25 bp (94% odds) Fed rate cut. on Wednesday. A -50bp cut is now seen as unlikely.
The commodity currencies are firmer vs. the JPY More...
FOMC decision due later. A -25bp rate cut seen as virtually certain (94% odds).
ADP private jobs data at 12:15 GMT could give an indication about the Friday employment reoport.
A slew of other data due from the U.S. including advance 3Q07 GDP. More...
$/yen continues to diverge as weak yen crosses provide support. This has seen $/yen finally break the 115.04 level, which would need to become support to argue for higher levels. One to watch is the 20 day mva (115.85) More...
It has been a strange day so far with eur/$ extending its record high before backing off to pivot former highs around the 1.4440 level. The reason we say strange is that this would normally be a day of defense as the market digs in ahead of the FOMC decis More...
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is less than 24 hours away and market participants are holding their breath for what will undoubtedly be an active trading session. Yesterday, we outlined 4 different potential outcomes for the Fed meeting , More...
The Canadian dollar finished a touch lower against the U.S. currency on Tuesday but stuck close to its multi-decade high ahead of a widely expected rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. More...
The dollar fell to a record low against the euro on Tuesday for the third consecutive session as the market looked ahead to the outcome of a Federal Reserve meeting with most expecting an interest rate cut.
More...
USD turned weak during the day following a much weaker than expected Conference Board Consumer Confidence index.
Traders setting up for a -25 bp (94% odds) Fed rate cut on Wednesday. A WSJ article by Greg Ip cast doubt on the certainty of a rate cut. It More...
Traders setting up for a -25 bp (94% odds) Fed rate cut on Wednesday. A WSJ article by Greg Ip casts some doubt on the certainty of a rate cut at all. He said that a -50bp cut is seen as improbable.
USD sentiment turned negative following a much weaker More...
FOMC two-day meeting has begun. -25bp rate cut seen as virtually certain (94% odds).
Wednesday has the usual heavy end of month schedule in addition to the FOMC and BOJ policy decisions. More...
AUD-USD dipped to a low of 0.9147 earlier today and has once again bounced back. However, the threat of a decline towards 0.9100 still exists and as such, caution would be advocated for Longs. More...
Crude oil rose to over US$93 a barrel on news that twenty percent of Mexico's oil output was halted sending the USDCAD pair to 0.9515. The Japanese September jobless rate rose to 4% from 3.8%... More...
Euro dropped below the 1.4400 in early European trade today dragged by weak retail spending numbers which slipped below the key 50 boom/bust line for the first time in three months. More...
Traders have been setting up for a Fed rate cut on Wednesday. However an articlr by Greg IP in the WSJ casts some doubts on the certainty of a rate cut at all. A -50bp cut is seen as improbable.
USD sentiment ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday now h More...
Market turning defensive pre-FOMC as the market is being forced to scale back expectations and hedge against a no change outcome although a 25bp rate cut is still seem as the most likely outcome. This is working against the eur/$ More...
The dollar recovered from record lows against the euro and a basket of major currencies on Tuesday as investors marginally trimmed expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week to boost growth.
More...
The foreign exchange market is relatively quiet today with the US dollar continuing to weaken and commodity currencies continuing to strengthen. No US economic data was released and the only piece of market moving data expected tomorrow is consumer confi More...
The Canadian dollar roseagainst the U.S. currency on Monday but closed off the 47-year high it reached earlier in the session, boosted by commodity prices and a slumping greenback ahead of More...
Traders are setting up for a Fed rate cut on Wednesday. Opinions mostly favor a -25bp easing, but a significant minority expects -50 bps. No change forecasts are the outliers.
USD sentiment ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday remains bearish. The EUR More...
USD sentiment ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday remains bearish. The EUR/USD is making new highs again.
Traders are setting up for a Fed rate cut on Wednesday. Opinions mostly favor a -25bp easing, but a significant minority expects -50 bps. No cha More...
The Dollar slid to a record low against a basket of major currencies on Monday, extending its broad sell-off on expectations that the Federal Reserve will trim interest rates this week ... More...
It would be a major surprise if the U.S. Federal Reserve does not cut its fed funds rate target and Discount Rate by at least -25bps on Wednesday. There is growing talk about -50bps cuts as many feel the central bank will want to get out ahead of a widely More...
USD-CHF is currently just above its 2007 Low of 1.1607 and the current Support on the downside is at 1.1593, which falls on a small trendline on the Daily Candles joining the lows of 1.1620 (01-Oct).. More...
Euro gapped open to 1.4415 at the start of Asian trade today and held on to its gains as ant-dollar sentiment continued to build in the currency market with traders watching the critical 1.4500 level as the next key barrier to fall. More...
USD sentiment ahead of the Fed remains bearish. The EUR/USD is making new highs again.
Traders are setting up for a Fed rate cut on Wednesday. Opinions mostly favor a -25bp easing, but a significant minority expects -50 bps.
Rising crude prices remain More...
September Japanese retail sales stronger than expected.
European and U.K. clocks fell back over the weekend. Australia has sprung forward. North America will move in a week.
U.K. money Supply growth eased. More...
$/yen continues to trade in the background as it consolidates while yen crosses fall further. This has provided $/yen with support but the reluctance to renew 115+ has left the onus on other currencies to bear the burden More...
Given the way the dollar ended last week, it should not be a surprise to see the eur/$ start the week by extending its record post-euro launch high as it pushes farther into uncharted territory. More...
The dollar slid to a record low against a basket of major currencies on Monday, weighed down by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week and perhaps another move by the end of the year.
More...
The US dollar fell to yet another record low against the Euro on Friday as traders remain overwhelmingly bearish on the greenback. However, the markets have remained bullish on More...
Traders are setting up for a Fed rate cut next week. Opinions splt between a -25bp or -50bp easing.
One eye remains on rising crude prices. $100 a barrel is in range.
USD sentiment remains bearish. The EUR/USD made a new highs again. More...
Thin Calendar Monday with only Japanese data on the docket.
European and U.K. clocks fall back over the weekend. Australia will Spring forward. North America will move in a week.
University More...
The Dollar fell near an all-time low against the Euro on Thursday as investors debated the size of an expected Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week after soft economic data pointed ... More...
At the G7 meeting, finance ministers had called for an accelerated appreciation of the Chinese renminbi. After China reported on Thursday that growth had remained strong in the third quarter with an 11.5% increase year-on-year, the renminbi appreciated su More...
USD-CHF has been gradually drifting down in the week so far, and is currently headed towards its 2007 Low of 1.1607, which was seen on 21-Oct... More...
The dollar fell to fresh record lows against the euro and a basket of currencies on Friday as investors, faced with a run of weak U.S. economic data, anticipated a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week.
More...
Libor fixings. Note the three mo USD libor has broken thru the 5.00% barrier ahead of the expected -25bp Fed rate cut next week. The level below the current discount rate is now greater than 25bp. Suggests funding pressures have eased significantly. Also More...
USD sentiment remains bearish. The EUR/USD has made a new high today.
The commodity currencies are trading higher vs. the JPY. The CAD and AUD have made new highs for he move vs. the USD.
The U.S. data calendar before the weekend is thin.
Forex mark More...
U.S. calendar thin with only the Univ of Michigan survey due.
EZ money Supply growth has eased. This is a key ECB indicator.
Japanese CPI data remained contained. No rate hike is likely anytime soon. Inducstrial output in line. More...
As evidence continues to mount that US rates are headed significantly lower, the EURUSD rallied to a new record high of 1.4375 in early European trade today boosted by supportive equity price action as the Nikkei rallied more than 220 points. More...
Little change as $/yen continues to consolidate below 115, which puts it more on the defensive but also leaves the onus on other currencies to bear the burden of carry trade flows, especially when the yen weakens. More...
It took all week but eur/$ finally breaking Monday’s 1.4349 high to set yet another record high. This leaves resistance a guess and increases the significance of the most recently set high and “big figures.” More...
The US dollar barely missed hitting record lows against the Euro today and traded down across the majors as Durable Goods Orders were released at a much weaker-than-expected -1.7 percent. In fact, More...
The Canadian currency closed higher versus the U.S. dollar on Thursday but finished off the
33-year high it hit early in the session, supported mostly by a sharp jump in oil prices to record highs. More...
The dollar fell near an all-time low against the euro on Thursday as investors debated the size of an expected Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week after soft economic data pointed to sluggish growth.
More...
No headline U.S. data due before the weekend.
Forex market still trading off stocks and prices are all over the place This is a "hit and run" environment for trading.
Nevertheless, USD sentiment remains cautiously bearish. Data on Thurdsay added to ha More...
Forex market bizarrely trading off every tick in stocks and they are all over the place This is a "hit and run" environment for trading.
Nevertheless, USD sentiment remains cautiously bearish. Data on Thurdsay added to negative sentiment.
German Octob More...
The Yen rose against the Dollar and Euro on Wednesday as weaker stocks and an unexpectedly softer September US existing home sales report caused investors to flee risky assets... More...
USD sentiment remains cautiously bearish. Looking for data today to add to negative sentiment.
German October IFO data not as weak as feared.
Key forex relationships have been tied to stock prices: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF, but on Wednesday, the E More...
German IFO figures weaker but not as weak as expected. .
Full calendar of Key U.S. data on threr NY open.
New home sales at 14:00 GMT seen weak. More...
$/yen maintaining a position below 115 is keeping this pair more on the defensive although it is currently trading with a better feel due to easing of the level of risk aversion in the market. More...
Another night of range bound lackluster trade in Asian and European markets today as both euro and pound came under pressure from domestic economic releases, seeing limited benefit from the rebound in the carry trades which rallied once again as equity in More...
The dollar steadied against major currencies on Thursday, with climbing equities helping calm a market awaiting data expected to bolster a widely-held view that a slowing U.S. economy will herald lower interest rates.
More...
The Canadian dollar closedlower against the greenback on Wednesday as investors shied
away from risky assets, but talk that the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut its discount rate imminently More...
The yen rose against the dollar and euro on Wednesday as weaker stocks and an unexpectedly softer September U.S. existing-home sales report caused investors to flee risky assets.
More...
Key forex relationships tied to stock prices: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF, but EUR lagged an afternoon equity rebound.
U.S. national housing data were even weaker than expected. Energy data were bullish for prices. More...
Key forex relationships tied top stock prices: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF.
U.S. national housing data were even weaker than expected. Energy data not helpful.
MER earnings before the N.Y. open weak but about "as leaked". Some questions about remaini More...
German IFO headline European release Thursday.
Full calendar of Key U.S. data on Thursday (see below).
Sep Existing Home sales very weak.
Weekly Energy data saw unexpected inventory draws. More...
AUD-USD rallied to a high of 0.9053 earlier today, near its 2007 high of 0.9083 and has dipped once again. It has been very choppy in the week so far, and that choppiness is likely to persist till... More...
The dollar edged up broadly and the yen benefitted from a fall in high-yielding currencies on Wednesday, with Merrill Lynch's upcoming earnings report and an expected lower open on Wall Street looming large over investors.
More...
ML earnings before the N.Y. open a weight on equity futures.
Existing Homes sales are expected to be weak and everybody knows it.
Talk that the sovereign USD seller are back in the markets. More...
Another night of seesaw action as the high yielders first rose on buoyant stock action in the US, only to turn lower when Nikkei staged a major reversal to the downside. More...
$/yen consolidating and trading an inside day as yen crosses again drive the market, this time on the upside for the Japanese currency. This has seen $/yen shy away from 115 More...
Eur/$ extending its pivot of 1.42 to 3 days in a row as the market remains in a market driven by the level of risk aversion. A fresh bout of risk aversion has been a factor today More...
The US dollar steadily lost ground today against nearly all of the majors – with the exception of the Japanese yen – as the forex markets remain overwhelmingly bearish on the beleaguered currency. More...
The dollar slipped on Tuesday, a day after its strongest rally against the euro in more than a year, as rebounding global stock markets rekindled investors' appetite for risky assets.
More...
USD drifted lower Tuesday in N.Y. Additional weakness had been widely expected, but few are trusting the price action.
The EUR/USD is back above its key 20-day moving average (1.4175).
U.S. equitites closed higher on the day and this gave USD/JPY a li More...
A batch of generally strong earnings reports provided a boost to U.S. indices on the open. Apple Inc. handily beat expectations again on the back of strong sales across all of their product lines More...
USD drifted lower Tueasday AM in N.Y. Additional weakness had been widely expected, but few are trusting the price action.
The EUR/USD is back above its key 20-day moving average (1.4175).
U.S. equitites are about flat on the day. More...
GBP-USD has had sharp rally during the day and it is currently in the middle of its trading range of 2.0250 and 2.0500. As such, the next move is uncertain. More...
The EURUSD and GBPUSD fell to daily lows of 1.4126 and 2.0258 respectively. News from the U.K. on two more banking groups putting together emergency funds to help customers hit by the credit crunch... More...
A rekindling of risk appetite on Tuesday put the yen under pressure against higher-yielding currencies as firmer equity markets prompted investors to move back into carry trades.
More...
$/yen recovering in line with yen crosses but not going far enough so far to test 115, a level that would need to be renewed to neutralize the renewed downside risk. More...
This is a tough write-up with the eur/$ recovering but so far only pivoting 1.42. This increases the significance of this level to guide the bias going forwards, More...
The EUR/USD is back above its key 20-day moving average. Dealers are still a bit distrustful of the price action on Monday
U.S. equitites will be watched closely again. More...
The US Dollar made solid headway higher on Monday, but with little fundamental impetus other than simple short covering following the uneventful G7 meeting, the move highlights the speculative nature of the markets. More...
The high-flying Canadian dollarfell hard on Monday, losing 1.5 percent to the U.S. greenback, due to a combination of lower oil prices and comments from Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge More...
The dollar rebounded from all-time lows on Monday as investors covered short positions on views that the currency's recent fall might be overdone and investors pulled back from risky bets.
More...
The EUR/USD is back at its 20-day moving average (1.4166). Equties tried to break early and then closed higher.
Strange markets today in the wake of G7. Clearly USD shorts are being washed out. Why? is another question. More...
Strange markets today in the wake of G7. Clearly USD shorts are being washed out. Why? is another question.
Stocks are all over the place as several attempts at a rebound off a weak start have run out of steam.
Odds are USD is not out of the woods yet More...
The focus of the markets in the latest week was distracted by the G7 which just ended over the weekend. Some in the market were expecting some sort of action by the group although it is hard to imagine what new might have come out of the conference. The G More...
Financial markets will this week focus on key US housing data and eurozone surveys that may be indicative of the current pace of economic growth, see charts below. This data may help answer critical questions such as More...
The dollar rallied on Monday from fresh lows set shortly after the Group of Seven finance chiefs' meeting over the weekend as traders booked profits on bets against the greenback and continued to buy the yen versus a host of currencies.
More...
While the G7 may take credit for the yen recovery, it has been rising risk aversion rather than any rhetoric that came out of that meeting that is driving the move. This has seen $/yen extend its retreat More...
Eur/$ extending its record high after the G7 essentially gave the market a green light to continue current trends but then reversed gears as rising risk aversion saw the yen firm and offsets support the dollar elsewhere. More...
G7 meeting lived up to our expectations. It was a non-event. International pressure on China to adjust the yuan higher has intensified. China still resisting.
Japan unlikely to allow the JPY to strengthen much more until the CNY corrects.
Markets taki More...
Higher than expected Australian PPI intentifies speculation about a November rate hike. CPI due on Wednesday will be closely monitired.
Calendar thin today. More...
After the typical post G-7 gap opening, FX markets settled down during European trade as traders awaited the start of the US equity trading. With no economic data to drive trade today, the direction in FX will likely be set by the flows in DJIA as currenc More...
Finance chiefs from the Group of Seven rich nations on Friday urged China to let its yuan currency appreciate more quickly but opted not to single out the dollar, euro or yen in its post-meeting communique.
More...
The price action in the financial markets this week is a testament to how quickly expectations and sentiment can change. We started the week with nearly everyone in the market agreeing that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at the end of th More...
The Canadian dollar made gains against the U.S. dollar on Friday after a higher than expected
headline inflation reading was seen reducing the chances of a interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada. More...
The dollar fell a record low against a basket of major currencies on Friday after Dow Jones reported that a draft communique from the Group of Seven meeting this afternoon failed to mention the euro, yen, and the greenback.
More...
CAT shaved their FY guidance following eps that was below expectations. MMM and MCD revenues were a little light of consensus expectations. Wachovia reported another disappointing quarter for a major US Bank and noted on their conference call that they ha More...
The US dollar is still under pressure. EUR-USD hit a new all-time high of 1.4319 on Friday morning. The dollar’s slide against the yen continued too; having climbed to almost 118 at the beginning of the week, USD-JPY temporarily fell back to below 115.
More...
EUR-CHF (1.6731) held Support of 1.6700 on first testing and has seen a bounce. Should this bounce continue, then USD-CHF could also range, and not fall. 1.6700 is the July-07 range high for EUR-CHF. More...
A New Dynamic? Black Swan Capital Friday October 19, 2007 - 11:59:13 GMT
Though we have little clue as to what will come out of the G-7 meeting, the banter we’ve seen suggest the currency focus will be on China ... More...
The dollar slid to a fresh record low against the euro and a multi-decade low against a basket of currencies on Friday, pressured by the growing view weak U.S. economic and financial market indicators will force another cut in interest rates.
More...
The dollar slid to a fresh record low against the euro and a multi-decade low against a basket of currencies on Friday, pressured by the growing view weak U.S. economic and financial market indicators will force another cut in interest rates.
More...
A relatively sparse economic calendar and the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the G-7 meeting later today, kept the major currency pairs in tight ranges on the last trading night of the week. The EURUSD marked time, hovering near record highs, but More...
G7 meeting starts today at 17:00 GMT in Washington. Communique and press conference at 22:00 GMT.
Gloom about U.S economy dominates and weighing on USD.
Forex markets are setting up for the G7. Odds are the outcome will be a disappointment. More...
G7 today expected to lean on Japan and China re undervaluation of currencies. Post-sub-prime no one is going to be rocking any boats in a major way. Communique due at 22:00 GMT Friday.
German PPI in More...
$/yen extending its retreat as pre-G7 meeting + rising risk aversion forcing further unwinding of yen carry trades. So far, $/yen has paused above 114.50, its key trendline More...
Eur/$ trading in uncharted waters so latest (record) high increases in importance as next levels are only a guess. In this regard, today’s high at 1.4320 is now key resistance. More...
The Canadian dollar closed at its highest level of the week on Thursday as a soft greenback and another strong run-up up in commodity prices offset a brief slip after the Bank of Canada said More...
The mighty greenback is no longer mighty after having fallen to a historic low against the Euro at the beginning of the US trading session. Rising expectations for an interest rate cut has been the primary culprit for dollar weakness. More...
The dollar fell to a record low against the euro and a basket of currencies on Thursday, pressured by soft U.S. economic data and sluggish corporate earnings that bolstered chances of an interest rate cut.
More...
U.S. equities closed steady.
Bond yields have continued to ease, especially the 2-yr. Odds for an October 31 Fed rate cut are now 70%.
Gloom about U.S economy dominates and weighs on USD. More...
U.S. equity markets opened on a decidedly negative tone after a weak Bank of America earnings report sent the futures careening ahead of the NY open. More...
No major U.S. data slated.
G7 over the weekend expected to lean on Japan and China re undervaluation of currencies. Post-sub-prime no one is going to be rocking any boats in a major way.
More...
Gloom about U.S economy dominates and weighs on USD.
Forex markets are setting up for the G7 at the weekend. Odds are the anticipation will be a more significant influence than the event, as usual. More...
AUD-USD could start to fall if the USD-JPY unwinding, which seems to be starting currently, starts to hit AUD-JPY, which has an important Support at 102.50-40. More...
The dollar slipped towards record lows against a basket of currencies on Thursday, after another bleak reading of the U.S. housing market increased speculation the Federal Reserve will...more More...
People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiachoun moved currency markets today, particularly USDJPY which often acts as a proxy for yuan, after he stated ...more More...
$/yen extending its retreat to briefly take out 116.00, a level where there were rumored stops but apparently there were bids below it as well...more More...
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