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Forex Research - 2009 Currency Market Outlook
Global Forex Trading Wednesday December 31, 2008 - 19:55:19 GMT
How Did the Dollar Trade in 2008? It has been an exceptionally active year in the foreign exchange market as currency volatilities hit record highs. More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dollar rises; euro poised for yearly fall
Reuters Wednesday December 31, 2008 - 12:23:32 GMT
The euro fell against the dollar on Wednesday and was poised to post its first annual fall versus the U.S. currency in three years as a historic financial crisis sparked a rush into the dollar this year. More...
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Forex Research - ECONOMIC DATA HITS RECORD LOW
Global Forex Trading Wednesday December 31, 2008 - 01:30:20 GMT
The US dollar sold off modestly today on stronger European economic data and weaker US data. The dollar’s weakness was seen against every major currency except for the Canadian dollar which followed oil prices lower. More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/30/2008 - EUR/USD
FX Solutions Tuesday December 30, 2008 - 17:12:50 GMT
A couple of days before 2009, erratic price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, continues to waver in a sideways consolidation. This trading range has been in effect for the past week after More...
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Forex Blog - U.S. Market Update
Trade the News Staff Tuesday December 30, 2008 - 16:48:56 GMT
As noted during the European morning, for currency trade the fundamental rational has remained in the background as 'stop-hunts' have been the constant theme in currencies. More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dollar slides vs euro, pound under pressure
Reuters Tuesday December 30, 2008 - 12:32:41 GMT
The dollar fell against the euro and a basket of currencies on Tuesday as traders closed out some positions before the year-end and ahead of data on the U.S. housing market and consumer confidence later in the day. More...
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Forex News - CANADA FX DEBT-C$ slips lower, bonds jump
Reuters Monday December 29, 2008 - 23:20:37 GMT
The Canadian dollar closed lower against the U.S. currency in volatile, holiday-thinned trading on Monday, unable to hold on to afternoon gains despite higher commodity prices and broad weakness in More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Monday December 29, 2008 - 17:02:14 GMT
Currency trade continues to focus around the GBP/related crosses. Dealers ponder sustainability of the upside momentum on the EUR/GBP cross as it tested 0.98 in today's session but with holiday-like liquidity issues the dealers agree that it is hard to 'f More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/29/2008 - USD/JPY
FX Solutions Monday December 29, 2008 - 15:57:40 GMT
Within the context of a continuing downtrend on the USD/JPY, price action approaching the New Year has made a pullback retracement back up near a key downtrend resistance line More...
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Forex Blog - US Treasuries Are Safe Bet for 2009
Foreign Exchange Analytics Wednesday December 24, 2008 - 13:10:44 GMT
With US Treasury yields ending 2008 at 50-55 year lows, 1-month t-bills yielding 0.00%, the Fed embarking on quantitative easing (printing money) and the incoming administration planning a massive debt-financed fiscal stimulus, the “Bonds for Dummies” More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dlr eases vs yen in thin trade; US data eyed
Reuters Wednesday December 24, 2008 - 13:02:41 GMT
The dollar fell against the yen and a basket of currencies on Wednesday as investors anticipated more grim U.S. economic data, although losses were limited as market players wound up positions early in thin holiday trade. More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dollar gains vs yen, down vs euro in thin trading
Reuters Tuesday December 23, 2008 - 21:47:26 GMT
The dollar drifted higher against the yen in thin pre-holiday trade on Tuesday, as investors continued to lock in profits on the Japanese currency's recent steep gains, cautious not to push the pair lower in case Japan intervenes. More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday December 23, 2008 - 21:44:53 GMT
The USD perversely benefited from weak economic data overnight. Grim US housing numbers and concern the auto industry may fail, even after the friendly Government loans, weighed on US equities which are down around 1% at 8:30am NZ time. US sentiment, in t More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far East Open for December 24, 2008
Global-View Tuesday December 23, 2008 - 20:32:50 GMT
The Christmas Eve calendar is loaded with all the data that authorities could get out before the end of the year. The day is a holiday in several centers on the Continent and a half-day session in London. Most markets are closed on the day aftr Christmas. More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far East Open for December 24, 2008
Global-View Tuesday December 23, 2008 - 20:25:23 GMT
The Christmas Eve calendar is loaded with all the data that authorities could get out before the end of the year. The day is a holiday in several centers on the Continent and a half-day session in London. Most markets are closed on the day aftr Christmas. More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/23/2008 - USD/CHF
FX Solutions Tuesday December 23, 2008 - 16:37:09 GMT
After plummeting more than 1800 pips since early December, price action on the USD/CHF corrected to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and then has dropped back down substantially within the past More...
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Forex Research - Euro Makes Another Run to 1.4000 in Thin Holiday Trade
Global Forex Trading Tuesday December 23, 2008 - 10:58:59 GMT
With Japanese markets closed for Emperors birthday, currencies spent the night in quiet pre-holiday trade essentially marking time until dealing desks close tomorrow evening for the Christmas holiday. The euro made another run at the 1.4000 level booste More...
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Forex Research - What to Expect Before New Years
Global Forex Trading Monday December 22, 2008 - 23:47:57 GMT
It is the first trading day of what is typically the least liquid period in the financial markets. As a result, there was no consistent trading pattern in the US dollar today. The greenback weakened against the Euro but gained strength against the Britis More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday December 22, 2008 - 21:46:17 GMT
China cut its benchmark rates by 27bp and reserve requirements by 50bp, injecting a positive tone to metal markets. Gold and copper both gained around 1%. Risk-aversion, as measured by the VIX index, fell 2% to 44 (under 40 is neutral), although we note t More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dollar firms vs yen, buoyed by Japan data, BoJ caution
Reuters Monday December 22, 2008 - 21:15:19 GMT
The U.S. dollar recovered some ground against the yen on Monday after sharp losses last week, boosted by data showing Japanese exports slumping and by a warning from the Bank of Japan that its economy has deteriorated and is likely to get worse. More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far East Open for December 23, 2008
Global-View Monday December 22, 2008 - 20:31:19 GMT
The holiday markets appear to have arrived on Monday. However, just about all the data normally scheduled for the rest of the month has been compressed into Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday moring in the U.S. will see a slew of data releases. More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/22/2008 - EUR/USD
FX Solutions Monday December 22, 2008 - 17:08:12 GMT
Within the context of the remarkable bullish run of the past couple of weeks, price action on EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has retraced to a significant support/resistance level More...
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Can we rest? Gold may lead the way.
Black Swan Capital Monday December 22, 2008 - 16:17:46 GMT
The volatility has been humongous in currencies, you might have noticed. The huge run in the euro recently seems to have a lot of Johnny Come Lately dollar bulls changing their tunes, and now suggesting the dollar move is done. It’s time for the dolla More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Monday December 22, 2008 - 16:04:59 GMT
he USD maintained a steady tone during the NY morning as thin, holiday conditions are prevalent. With no scheduled data releases concern over the global economic situation remains front and center. More...
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Forex Research - Euro Retakes 1.4000 At Start of Holiday Week
Global Forex Trading Monday December 22, 2008 - 11:31:49 GMT
Evidence of oncoming holidays was all around the currency market tonight, as trading slowed to a crawl and the economic calendar was essentially barren of any significant data. Nevertheless, the euro managed to stage a rebound rally pushing above 1.4000 o More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-New York Open for December 22, 2008
Global-View Monday December 22, 2008 - 10:45:46 GMT
As Jay mentioned earlier, it all boils down to flows now with the Christmas holidays already at hand. The economic data calendar is working against traders as well with no major releases left today and most of the end of month data pushed forward to Tuesd More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Sunday December 21, 2008 - 23:39:10 GMT
The main news items for global markets were the US auto industry rescue package finally agreed by the US Government, and an expansion of credit stimulation facility by the Federal Reserve. US equities held their ground, but Europe was less buoyant, the FT More...
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Forex Blog - I Meant to Do That December 19, 2008 By John Mauldin
Thoughts from the Frontline Saturday December 20, 2008 - 10:39:05 GMT
The Fed has taken interest rates to zero. They have clearly started a program of quantitative easing. What exactly does that mean? Are we all now Japanese? Is the Fed pushing on a string, as Japan has done for almost two decades? The quick answer is no, b More...
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Forex Research - The Basics of Quantitative Easing
Global Forex Trading Friday December 19, 2008 - 23:17:16 GMT
It has been an extremely volatile week in the currency market. On Monday, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.3364 and shortly after the European open on Thursday it hit a high above 1.47. However since then it has reversed violently to end the week back at 1. More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/19/2008 - USD/JPY
FX Solutions Friday December 19, 2008 - 17:20:03 GMT
With the Bank of Japan cutting the overnight lending rate to 0.1%, among other relevant announcements from the BOJ, an upward retracement in the long embattled USD/JPY pair could very well extend its More...
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FX Briefing - Dollar collapse at the end of the year
BHF-Bank Friday December 19, 2008 - 16:52:04 GMT
The dollar has continued to plummet. Last week, EUR-USD rose by about 5%, and this week, the European currency has climbed further, gaining almost 5% to around 1.40. It even reached a peak of 1.47 temporarily, but profit taking then set in. Most other cur More...
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Underestimating the power of deflation is dangerous!
Black Swan Capital Friday December 19, 2008 - 16:44:27 GMT
Sometimes we are a bit absurd in this morning missive in an attempt to make a point. Looking back at a recent issue, from the 2nd of December, titled "Can you say 1% Treasury Bond Yield?" we noticed the 30-year bond futures price has risen a bit since th More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Friday December 19, 2008 - 16:38:42 GMT
The EUR/USD extended its long-week of parabolic price performance while thin trading conditions are really boosting volatility. The EUR/USD cross began the week at 1.3350 and proceeded to climb above the 1.4700 level to test its 200-day moving average; ea More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-New York Open for December 19, 2008
Global-View Friday December 19, 2008 - 10:44:06 GMT
The BOJ surprised us by thrown in the kitchen sink today. It lowered its overnight target rate by 20bps to virtually zero (0.10%) and announced other measures to improve the liquidity in the system. No doubt it was the recent surge in the JPY that pushed More...
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Forex Research - WHAT IS BEHIND THE DOLLAR RECOVERY?
Global Forex Trading Thursday December 18, 2008 - 22:42:27 GMT
After seeing the US dollar sell off for 5 straight days against the Euro and Japanese Yen, we were not entirely surprised to see today’s recovery, especially on the heels of better than expected economic data. More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday December 18, 2008 - 20:50:07 GMT
Non-USD currencies corrected their 5-day rallies sharply last night, the likely catalyst being US data releases which were not quite as weak as expected. Global equities were largely unchanged, and the VIX measure ofn risk-aversion fell again, -9% to 46. More...
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Forex Blog - Market Failures Yield Distorted Price Signals
Foreign Exchange Analytics Thursday December 18, 2008 - 20:36:54 GMT
It has been nothing short of amusing (read frustrating) to hear the rubbish being peddled over why this currency did this or that asset did that. And perhaps no more aggravating than in the blovosphere of currency trading in the last week in the face of More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far East Open for December 19, 2008
Global-View Thursday December 18, 2008 - 20:19:05 GMT
Chatter that the PBOC has been a large buyer of EUR daily since the start of December suggested to some of us that this trade had probably already run its course. There was the suggestion early on that this was the day to sell EUR/USD as those who had cau More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/18/2008 - AUD/USD
FX Solutions Thursday December 18, 2008 - 17:09:51 GMT
With the recent U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut to a record low, the interest rate differential between AUD and USD has widened to a substantial 4.00%. As shown on the accompanying AUD/USD daily chart, More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Thursday December 18, 2008 - 17:04:32 GMT
In currencies, the price action remained swift and volatile during the New York morning in a session rife with dramatic rumors and technical-related factors, complemented by thin year-end conditions. More...
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Consuming Forces Shaking Ukraine, Germany ... and China
Black Swan Capital Thursday December 18, 2008 - 15:42:55 GMT
You’re probably kicking yourself for holding on to those hryvnia for a couple days too many.
If you don’t know what I’m talking about, I’ll tell you: Ukraine’s currency – hryvnia – took a nosedive. In the last two days its value has plun More...
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Forex Research - Euro Blows Past 1.4700 As Ifo Sinks to All Time Lows
Global Forex Trading Thursday December 18, 2008 - 12:03:32 GMT
In a liquidity starved session, the EUR/USD skyrocketed past the 1.4700 barrier in early European trade as momentum players ignored the worst IFO reading since 1982 and sent the unit flying after it tripped stops at the 1.4500 barrier. The breath taking a More...
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FOREX NEWS-Euro surges broadly, hits 2-1/2 mth high vs dlr
Reuters Thursday December 18, 2008 - 11:54:37 GMT
The euro surged across the board on Thursday, buoyed by expectations that euro zone interest rates will not fall as steeply as those in other major economies despite data pointing to worsening German business sentiment. More...
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Forex Research - How Much Further Can the US Dollar Fall?
Global Forex Trading Wednesday December 17, 2008 - 23:10:04 GMT
With dollar denominated assets yielding next to nothing, we have continued to see money flow out of the US dollar. The greenback fell to the lowest level against the Euro since September and dropped to a new 13 year low against the Japanese Yen. More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far East Open for December 17, 2008
Global-View Wednesday December 17, 2008 - 20:36:35 GMT
The USD extended its tumble against major currencies further on Wednesday. Bank dealers cited reduced market participation for the price volatility, as many have already closed their books for the year and are under instructions not to make waves before 1 More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday December 17, 2008 - 20:14:41 GMT
The market’s reassessment of individual currencies continued, the USD clearly in the dog-box for now, falling 2% (DXY index). Sentiment towards risk improved, the VIX (US equity volatility index) at a 6-week low. Major global equity indices were approxi More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Wednesday December 17, 2008 - 17:22:39 GMT
In currencies, several themes emerged during the session, but year-end liquidity issues continue to be the overall driver of the price action. Dealers are noting that thin liquidity are prevailing as the end of the year approaches. More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/17/2008 - EUR/USD
FX Solutions Wednesday December 17, 2008 - 15:24:48 GMT
Bullish price action on the key EUR/USD pair (a daily chart of which is shown) has been nothing short of remarkable, especially after the Fed cut rates to a record low More...
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Blam! Liquidity Trap? Is it over for the buck?
Black Swan Capital Wednesday December 17, 2008 - 14:20:05 GMT
The dollar was blasted yesterday by Ben’s Quantitative Easing cannons. It’s game over for the buck, right? Well, maybe…
This morning, so far, we don’t see the wholesale follow-through against the buck (euro, yen, and Swissie doing well). More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dollar pressured broadly after bold Fed move
Reuters Wednesday December 17, 2008 - 13:52:47 GMT
The dollar fell broadly on Wednesday, hitting a 2 1/2-month low against the euro and closing in on a 13-year trough versus the yen after the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to between zero and 0.25 percent. More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday December 16, 2008 - 21:26:17 GMT
The headline grabber today is the US Fed’s fresh announcement: a 75bp rate cut, and the new Fed funds rate anywhere between zero and 0.25%. This is much more dovish than was expected, and risk assets have rallied significantly after the news, which was More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Far East Open for December 16, 2008
Global-View Tuesday December 16, 2008 - 20:21:36 GMT
The Fed made a historic policy decision on Tuesday setting as target range for Fed Funds of 0-0.25%, from a previous single point target of 1.00%. The central bank threw in the “kitchen sink” and took just about every action at their disposal to suppo More...
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I Love the Smell of Rate Cuts in the Morning
Black Swan Capital Tuesday December 16, 2008 - 18:00:34 GMT
Interest rate decision out of the FOMC today – Mr. Ben Bernanke and his busy policy-makers announce their latest decision on interest rates this afternoon in the US. Will Ben schmooze the media like Trichet? Doubtful. Estimates say rates will drop anoth More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/16/2008 - USD/CAD
FX Solutions Tuesday December 16, 2008 - 17:33:30 GMT
After having hit a tentative triple top formation with a confirming shooting star pattern on the third test of the 1.3000 level, the USD/CAD (a daily chart of which is shown) has exhibited some More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Tuesday December 16, 2008 - 16:56:05 GMT
The greenback is maintaining a softer tone going into the Fed interest rate announcement due later today. More...
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FOREX NEWS-Euro dips vs dlr but limited before Fed
Reuters Tuesday December 16, 2008 - 12:02:13 GMT
The euro eased from a two-month high against the dollar on Tuesday but losses were limited on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to near zero and take more steps to battle recession. More...
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Forex Research - FOMC Rate Decision Could Add Pressure on Dollar
Global Forex Trading Monday December 15, 2008 - 23:03:20 GMT
In Friday’s Daily Currency Focus, we argued that going into the FOMC rate decision, the US dollar could continue to weaken. The sheer reality is that by Tuesday afternoon, the US dollar will be either the lowest or second lowest yielding G10 currency i More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Far East Open for December 15, 2008
Global-View Monday December 15, 2008 - 20:31:04 GMT
End of year trade continues to see the USD tumble against European currencies. USD weakness is often expected as a seasonal pattern by traders. Gold and oil are mixed. Dealers are looking ahead to a Fed policy easing Tuesday.
Another focus remains on th More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update Dow -89 S&P -13 NASDAQ -34
Trade the News Staff Monday December 15, 2008 - 16:59:08 GMT
In currency trading, the greenback was weaker throughout the New York morning thanks to the higher commodity prices. EUR/USD tested the 1.36 level as technical factors fueled a weaker USD against the majors, with GBP/USD testing the 1.53 area while USD/CH More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/15/2008 - EUR/USD
FX Solutions Monday December 15, 2008 - 15:49:47 GMT
Dramatic bullishness within the last several days on EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has reached a significant downtrend resistance line More...
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Euro as new safe haven currency?
Black Swan Capital Monday December 15, 2008 - 14:14:13 GMT
We don’t think so—at least over the longer term. But no matter what we think near- or long-term, the market likes euro compared to the other players. The euro has bounced strongly against the US dollar. Also, you can see euro’s relative strength More...
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Forex Research - Euro Gets the Leg up on The Week
Global Forex Trading Monday December 15, 2008 - 13:57:37 GMT
EUR/USD got off to a strong start on the first trading day of the week, as optimism among Asian equity investors, whetted risk appetite pushing the pair to within a whisker of 1.3500 level in early European trade. Both Nikkei and Kospi propelled higher ra More...
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Chart Supports Bullishness in the Euro
Forex Hound Monday December 15, 2008 - 13:38:12 GMT
The strong support base in the Euro is helping to support the current rally. It is often said that “the height of the market is determined the length of the base.” More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Sunday December 14, 2008 - 22:16:36 GMT
Fears that the US Senate’s rejection, on Friday, of a bailout of the US auto industry, would initiate a new phase of global credit contraction was responsible for a sell-down of risk-currencies on Friday around the NZ close. More...
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Forex Blog - Some Things That Just Should Not Be
Thoughts from the Frontline Saturday December 13, 2008 - 12:02:33 GMT
There are things in today's markets that are simply astounding. They should not exist, yet they do. Why should US bills trade at negative interest? How can oil be trading at all-time highs in terms of spreads over the next year? Bank debt and bonds are tr More...
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Forex Research - US Dollar: Further Weakness Ahead
Global Forex Trading Friday December 12, 2008 - 22:59:40 GMT
The automaker bailout drama has exerted its toll on the financial markets. Last night, news that the bailout deal fell apart in the Senate drove the US dollar to a 13 year low against the Japanese Yen. Almost immediately, the dollar rebounded and its re More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Global-View.com Friday December 12, 2008 - 17:54:59 GMT
The initial wave of risk aversion early in the European session has abated somewhat as market participants ponder whether the auto bailout is dead or not, or whether the whole thing was just all part of a political game. More...
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Dollar Seasonality in Late December
Larry Greenberg Friday December 12, 2008 - 17:33:56 GMT
There was a time early in the dollar-floating era when the second half of December exhibited the most powerful and consistent seasonal bias. More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/12/2008 - GBP/JPY
FX Solutions Friday December 12, 2008 - 17:10:05 GMT
Relatively low recent volatility on GBP/JPY (a daily chart of which is shown) has been simultaneously consolidating and inching lower in its bid to drop below recent decade-long lows More...
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Forex Blog - FX Briefing - The big rift
BHF-Bank Friday December 12, 2008 - 14:34:03 GMT
During the course of the week, the US dollar has depreciated significantly against (practically) all major currencies. The euro gained almost 5% to about 1.33. EUR-USD even touched 1.34 for a short time. At first, the Japanese currency only posted very mo More...
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Markets Reflect Deflationary Concerns
Forex Hound Friday December 12, 2008 - 14:22:07 GMT
The weakness in the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, sent a signal to the equity and commodity markets that it should not be considered a given that the U.S. Dollar is a safe haven investment. More...
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Forex Research - US Dollar Takes a Hit on Weaker Economic Data
Global Forex Trading Thursday December 11, 2008 - 22:49:54 GMT
The US dollar took a beating today as weak economic data raises the risk of a 75bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Tuesday. Jobless claims rose by the largest amount since November 1982 with continuing claims hitting the highest level in 26 years. The More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dollar slides to seven-week lows vs euro, yen
Reuters Thursday December 11, 2008 - 21:40:38 GMT
The U.S. dollar fell broadly on Thursday, hitting seven-week lows against the euro and yen, as safe-haven demand faded and investors began booking year-end profits following months of steady dollar buying.
More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday December 11, 2008 - 19:46:06 GMT
The USD fell by around 2% against major currencies last night, after some awful data: US jobless claims rose alarmingly, and the US trade deficit widened further. What was unusual last night was the USD being punished, rather than risk currencies and equ More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/11/2008 - EUR/USD
FX Solutions Thursday December 11, 2008 - 17:11:21 GMT
Thursday’s price action on EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has made a decisive bullish break of the triangle consolidation that it had been entrenched in for the last month and a half More...
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Turning to the Technicals for Guidance
Black Swan Capital Thursday December 11, 2008 - 16:44:10 GMT
We’ve told our story as to why the US dollar has possibly entered a multi-year bull market. And depending on where else you dig for investment advice, you may have also heard why the US dollar has not entered such a bull market ... why this is only a co More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Thursday December 11, 2008 - 16:33:31 GMT
In currencies the greenback continues to face pressure against the major pairs following the ugly US claims data. Both technical and fundamental factors are stoking the more than 250 pip EUR/USD surge More...
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Daily Trend Turns Up in Euro
Forex Hound Thursday December 11, 2008 - 14:48:20 GMT
The Euro surged overnight following the release of a statement by the European Central Bank calling for a slowdown in future interest rate cuts. More...
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Forex Research - Euro Races Through 1.3100 – Why?
Global Forex Trading Thursday December 11, 2008 - 11:05:14 GMT
EUR/USD hit a high of 1.3157 in late Asian trade today as news of House passage of the auto-bailout bill and a short squeeze that tripped stops above the 1.3100 level helped fuel the pair higher. Although risk assumption remains a temperate support for th More...
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Forex Research - Has FX Volatility Peaked?
Global Forex Trading Wednesday December 10, 2008 - 22:58:33 GMT
On a quiet day devoid of any major US economic data, the saga surrounding Automakers continue to dominate the headlines. We are inching closer to a formal bailout plan for the Big 3 and as we have previously suggested, regardless of the final outcome, the More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Thread: December 11, 2008 Pre-Far East Open
Global-View Wednesday December 10, 2008 - 20:42:26 GMT
Asian equity markets took comfort from expectations that a bailout of the U.S. automobile sector might be at hand. This optimism did not carry forward much into Europe or the U.S. The early call now is for only a nmodestly higher U.S. close. Not much more More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday December 10, 2008 - 20:16:36 GMT
Pessimism waned yesterday around the globe. The US car industry rescue plan seems to have been tentatively agreed (voting late NY afternoon), and commodity prices rose (oil +8%, gold +4%), these factors moderately lifting equity markets in Asia, Europe, a More...
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Forex Blog - Dollar Breaks with Risk Aversion Theme?
Foreign Exchange Analytics Wednesday December 10, 2008 - 18:28:21 GMT
Speculation abounds in the last week that correlations in markets between currencies and asset prices are weakening. In particular the argument is made that the USD is ignoring risk aversion as the central motivating theme for FX…risk aversion up, stoc More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/10/2008 - EUR/CHF
FX Solutions Wednesday December 10, 2008 - 17:22:18 GMT
Price action on the key EUR/CHF cross, a daily chart of which is shown, has just reached and slightly retreated from a critical resistance juncture More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Wednesday December 10, 2008 - 16:40:36 GMT
In currencies, the European pairs were broadly firmer against the USD in the New York morning, with the USD tone hampered by technical and fundamental factors, including renewed commodity strength. Dealers noted their surprise that the market did not reac More...
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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 10 -Dec-2008 - 1235 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday December 10, 2008 - 12:42:12 GMT
Though Swiss dipped towards 1.1997 during the day today, it had then moved up a little. It took Support of the lower end of the channel and has managed to stay in the narrower channel. Till it..... More...
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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 10 -Dec-2008 - 1235 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday December 10, 2008 - 12:39:09 GMT
Though Swiss dipped towards 1.1997 during the day today, it had then moved up a little. It took Support of the lower end of the channel and has managed to stay in the narrower channel. Till it...... More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Thread: December 10, 2008 Pre-New York Open
Global-View Wednesday December 10, 2008 - 10:45:58 GMT
Asian equity makets have taken comfort from expectations that a bailout of the U.S. automobile sector might be at hand. This optimism has not carried over into Europe at this hour, but the early call is for a higher U.S. open. Accordingly The USD is softe More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday December 9, 2008 - 20:51:19 GMT
Last night’s session was a game of two halves for currencies – a weak start, driven by falls in Asian equities and poor UK data, followed by a recovery on the back of positive European equities and a large buy-EUR order. The fickle behaviour was unsur More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Far East Open for December 10, 2008
Global-View Tuesday December 9, 2008 - 19:56:07 GMT
The Bank of Canada -75bp rate cut to 1.50% early Tuesday caused a bit of a stir Tuesday. Reviews of the bank’s policy statement were mixed, with additional rate cuts not explicitly signaled, however its tone was dovish. This week sees little in the way More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/09/2008 - GBP/USD
FX Solutions Tuesday December 9, 2008 - 17:54:07 GMT
Languishing near 6-year lows, GBP/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) is currently adhering closely to a significant downtrend resistance line More...
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Foiled again? Rambling about trading inside the chop zone!
Black Swan Capital Tuesday December 9, 2008 - 16:01:21 GMT
Ouch! Another seeming dollar correction is off the rails so far this morning, as it is sharply higher against all comers (yen the exception). Watching the dollar move sideways since November 21st is like watching an episode of the Twilight Zone—all ki More...
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Forex Research - Euro and Pound Drift Lower As Data Remains Dour
Global Forex Trading Tuesday December 9, 2008 - 13:57:50 GMT
Both euro and pound were trading off their North American session highs as muted equity markets and continued downbeat data pressured the currencies in early European trade. With equity indices in quiet consolidation after several days of rallies, the foc More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis:Pre-New York Open for December 9, 2008
Global-View Tuesday December 9, 2008 - 10:36:16 GMT
This week sees little in the way of key U.S. economic data, so the price action should be dominated by flows.
On Monday, forex markets followed the lead of equities, mainly because it is working. By this point we have to assume that the risk profile of More...
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Forex Research - Can the Recovery in Currencies Last?
Global Forex Trading Monday December 8, 2008 - 22:34:27 GMT
For the second trading day in a row, we have seen an improvement in investor sentiment as equities and currencies stage another impressive rally. After a week of brutally painful news for the US economy, this is potentially a week for rest and recovery. More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far East Open for December 9, 2008
Global-View Monday December 8, 2008 - 20:48:28 GMT
As expected, forex markets continue to follow the lead of equities. Asian equity indices surged today and European bourses ended up sharply at this hour. U.S. equities look to be closing higher. Odds a partial bailout deal for the auto industry is probabl More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday December 8, 2008 - 19:47:06 GMT
US equities once again were impressive, the S&P500 posting a 3% gain at time of writing. With no US data released, the move was likely driven by the stimulatory package Barack Obama started unveiling over the weekend. All the major European and Asian bour More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Monday December 8, 2008 - 16:57:28 GMT
In currencies, the re-emergence of a greater appetite for risk is the early highlight. Monday's session has been marked by retracement in the USD and JPY related pairs as global equity markets rebound sharply. More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/08/2008 - AUD/USD
FX Solutions Monday December 8, 2008 - 16:44:47 GMT
As noted on last Thursday, the AUD/USD was wavering in the middle of a well-formed triangle pattern. As of Monday morning, price has risen once again to touch and retreat from the top of the triangle More...
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Dollar correction time? Finally?
Black Swan Capital Monday December 8, 2008 - 16:36:16 GMT
If we could only forecast the stock market, then we’d be able to forecast the dollar—it seems. But we can forecast either of them—we can only make probability bets on both. And those probabilities are all in our head—guesswork at best there too. More...
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Forex Research - Dollar Down as Risk Revives – Sayonara USD/JPY?
Global Forex Trading Monday December 8, 2008 - 13:27:30 GMT
Dollar Down as Risk Revives – Sayonara USD/JPY? Last Updated 12/8/2008 9:01:35 AM EST (GMT +5)
Top Stories
Global equities stage a massive rally after positive close in US Friday
Risk currencies rally in tandem with stocks
US lawmakers l More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Pre- N.Y. open Anaysis Thread
Global-View Monday December 8, 2008 - 11:01:01 GMT
Simply because it has been working, forex markets are following the lead of equities to start the new week. Asian equity indices surged today and European bourses are up sharply at this hour. The early call for the open of U.S. equities is for higher. Thi More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Sunday December 7, 2008 - 20:11:42 GMT
The US payrolls data for November was as shocking as expected, with the largest monthly loss of jobs since 1974 – 533,000. The S&P500 initially fell on the news, but then rose on pre-weekend position squaring to finish +3.7%. Commodities fell aggressive More...
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Forex Research - Why the Limited Reaction to Payrolls?
Global Forex Trading Saturday December 6, 2008 - 02:32:41 GMT
The US unemployment rate soared to a 15 year high in the month of November as non-farm payrolls incur the steepest slide in 34 years. Although currencies and equities sold off aggressively following the release of the labor market numbers, they clawed the More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/05/2008 - EUR/GBP
FX Solutions Friday December 5, 2008 - 17:17:15 GMT
Currently near record levels, the key EUR/GBP cross (a daily chart of which is shown) has surpassed the recent decade-plus high for the pair set just last month at around 0.8660 More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Friday December 5, 2008 - 16:38:54 GMT
In currencies, the EUR/USD pair continues to maintain a 1.24-1.29 range despite the payroll data. The fear of a full-blown global recession initially had equity markets and commodities plunge before stabilizing a short while later. More...
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Forex Blog - FX Briefing - ECB tight-lipped
BHF-Bank Friday December 5, 2008 - 15:40:50 GMT
This week has brought bad news on the economic front, especially from the US, but the main focus has been on further interest rate cuts. Central banks in industrialized countries are lowering their key interest rates drastically in an attempt to combat th More...
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Forex Research - How Will the Dollar Trade Post Payrolls?
Global Forex Trading Thursday December 4, 2008 - 23:37:18 GMT
The countdown to non-farm payrolls has begun and there is little doubt that job losses last month were severe. However the US dollar’s reaction to the jobs report may surprise you because a weak number may not translate into universal dollar weakness. T More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday December 4, 2008 - 21:16:28 GMT
Official interest rate cuts dominated financial events last night: the Europe's ECB by 75 basis points (the largest in its history), the Bank of England by 100bps, and Sweden by a hefty 175bps. In the US, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said property foreclosur More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far East Open for December 5, 2008
Global-View Thursday December 4, 2008 - 19:56:51 GMT
Thursday saw strong cross-currents which have seen the USD cloing lower on the day. The BOE cut interest rates by -100bps as expected to 2.00%. Also the ECB eased by -75bps to a 2.50% refi rate. This rate reduction was on the high side of the market -50bp More...
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Trouble Deepens in Canada
Larry Greenberg Thursday December 4, 2008 - 19:24:24 GMT
The Bank of Canada ought to escalate monetary relief next Tuesday, as the economy's economic slump and political crisis escalate. More...
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FX Blog - EUR/USD Update
Global-View.com Thursday December 4, 2008 - 18:55:18 GMT
Has been trading within 1.2331-1.3298 since the low (1.2331) was set Oct 28 and the retracement high (1.3298) was set 2 days later on Oct 30. That makes over 5 weeks of consolidation within this range More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/04/2008 - AUD/USD
FX Solutions Thursday December 4, 2008 - 17:33:58 GMT
Much like the consolidations that have been prevailing in other currency pairs lately, the AUD/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has been forming a large symmetrical triangle pattern More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Thursday December 4, 2008 - 17:01:20 GMT
In currencies, the greenback retreated in the aftermath of this morning's European interest rate decisions. The BoE cut as expected by 100bps to 2.0%, its lowest level since 1951, while the ECB cut by the largest amount in its 10-year history by 75bps to More...
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Interest Rate Decisions Dominate Headlines -- But Is It News?
Black Swan Capital Thursday December 4, 2008 - 13:52:54 GMT
Well, the trend is certainly there. Central banks are cutting interest rates in a big way. The first two key news headlines above speak to that point. And of course, the Bank of England just announced a 100-basis point rate cut this morning. The European More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Thread: December 4, 2008 Pre-New York Open
Global-View Thursday December 4, 2008 - 10:42:59 GMT
Markets are waiting for two key central bank decisions in a short while. The Swedish Riksbank has already surprised the markets with a -175bp rate cut. The next key decision will be by the BOE (12:00 GMT) a -100bp cut in its 3.00% repo rate is priced in t More...
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Forex Research - The Risks Ahead
Global Forex Trading Wednesday December 3, 2008 - 22:37:47 GMT
The volatility in the equity markets has helped the US dollar hold onto its gains. Investors are nervous about the outlook for Friday’s non-farm payrolls report and that is benefitting the low yielders. The Eurozone and UK are expected to cut interest r More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Thread: December 4, 2008
Global-View Wednesday December 3, 2008 - 20:54:28 GMT
The focus of forex trade remains on equity markets, and it was remarkable today that share prices tried to sell off on several poor economic indicators, but that prices continued to bounce back. We often say that its not the news, but the market reaction More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday December 3, 2008 - 19:43:26 GMT
US equities held their ground last night, on more stimulatory noises from the Fed, who will buy USD500 billion of mortgage and agency debt. This sent US lending rates lower. The data was typically negative, ISM non-manufacturing employment hitting a recor More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Wednesday December 3, 2008 - 16:47:48 GMT
In currencies, the greenback was firmer against the European pairs but remained steady during the NY morning. The lows in the ADP employment report and ISM non-manufacturing index are driving home concerns over the global economy, providing the catalyst f More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/03/2008 - GBP/USD
FX Solutions Wednesday December 3, 2008 - 16:19:39 GMT
Price action within the last three months on the key GBP/USD pair (a 4-hour chart of which is shown) has been characterized by a series of chart pattern breakdowns More...
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Deflation Could Crush Canadian Dollar
Forex Hound Wednesday December 3, 2008 - 15:54:27 GMT
Talk of deflation is once again threatening the Canadian Dollar. This is a major concern since the Canadian economy relies heavily on key commodities such as crude oil, gold, lumber and wheat. More...
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Oh Canada in a little trouble of late…
Black Swan Capital Wednesday December 3, 2008 - 14:39:27 GMT
Oh the Canadian dollar! John Ross and I usually say: “They don’t call it the Loonie for nothing!” And at times, after playing a setup in the Loonie where we felt some degree of confidence, and got crushed still, we add another moniker—Currency A More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Thread: December 3, 2008 Pre-New York Open
Global-View Wednesday December 3, 2008 - 10:42:39 GMT
Financial markets are biding their time ahead of three key employment surveys from the U.S. today, Thursday and Friday. The ADP private employment survey is due at 13:15 GMT today. The ADP survey tends to be unreliable and recently has tended to overstate More...
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Forex Research - How Does the US Dollar Perform in a Recession?
Global Forex Trading Tuesday December 2, 2008 - 23:33:27 GMT
It is a challenging week for the financial markets and today’s recovery in equities is characteristic of a bear market rally which is why the dollar managed to hold onto its gains against every major currency except for the Euro. As the only currency th More...
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Can you say 1% Treasury Bond Yield?
Black Swan Capital Tuesday December 2, 2008 - 22:32:36 GMT
The Fed’s announcement that it will start buying Treasury bonds, along with everyone else in the world it seems, pushes the Fed into official Quantitative Easing (QE) territory. More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday December 2, 2008 - 20:14:13 GMT
US equities retraced some of Monday’s losses, driven by bargain hunting and some supportive comments from the Fed: Bernanke said if further rate cuts were not possible, unconventional measures would be considered (e.g. buying US treasuries); the Fed als More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Thread: December 3, 2008
Global-View Tuesday December 2, 2008 - 19:45:10 GMT
Forex markets were tracking equities again on Tuesday. Dealers seem to lack any other inspiration. The USD fell when equities were rising again. One possibility Monday was that the markets were setting up for a very weak employment report on Friday. Far E More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/02/2008 - USD/CAD
FX Solutions Tuesday December 2, 2008 - 16:59:20 GMT
The key USD/CAD pair (a daily chart of which is shown) is giving off some clear, yet conflicting, technical signals. After coming down from a rather precise double test of the 1.3000 price region More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Tuesday December 2, 2008 - 16:44:48 GMT
The greenback softened in the New York morning as risk appetite returned following the weak performance at European bourses earlier in their session. The first week of December is an active one for the central banks. More...
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Forex Research - What is Behind the Dollar Rally?
Global Forex Trading Monday December 1, 2008 - 23:37:18 GMT
Fresh concerns about the global economy have triggered sharp gains in the US dollar and the Japanese yen. Risk aversion continues to seep through the markets as the National Bureau of Economic Research finally admits that the US economy fell into recessio More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday December 1, 2008 - 21:16:53 GMT
This week's mood reverts to the negative sentiment prevailing two weeks ago. US equities fell over 5% on an awful ISM release, one part of that index at a 60 year low. Combined with recent PMI figures for Eurozone, UK, Russia, and China at record lows, an More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Thread: December 2, 2008
Global-View Monday December 1, 2008 - 20:34:55 GMT
Weakness in equities Monday has dominated trade in all the financial markets. Some indicated that the early part of December is notorious for tax loss selling, and that 2008 has seen substantial losses, so there is plenty of potential selling to be done. More...
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Chart of the Day - 12/01/2008 - EUR/USD
FX Solutions Monday December 1, 2008 - 19:09:34 GMT
Price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, has retraced almost its entire bullish breakout run of early last week. This may be viewed as simply a continuation of the price consolidation that More...
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Preview of Australian Rate Decision
Larry Greenberg Monday December 1, 2008 - 19:03:37 GMT
My forecast rate cut of 100 basis points is on the high end of expectations. Here are my reasons. The decision will be revealed at 03:30 GMT Tuesday. More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Monday December 1, 2008 - 17:00:14 GMT
In currencies, traders are nervously noting the return of a risk aversion theme that looks a lot like last August. Equities are broadly lower, the USD and JPY pairs are exhibiting strength as funds flow to the safety of government paper in a week with sev More...
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Forex Research - Euro, Pound Slide as Eco Data Turns Grim
Global Forex Trading Monday December 1, 2008 - 10:44:14 GMT
The start of a new week brought only grim economic news from across the ocean driving EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower as equity markets gave up some of last week’s gains and risk aversion returned to the currency market.The data on the economic front was noth More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Thread: December 1, 2008
Global-View Monday December 1, 2008 - 10:37:05 GMT
The first full week of most months tends to be an active one for the central banks. Inrerest rate cuts are expected just about across the board. The Bank of Japan has aloso called an emergency meeting for tomorrow. It will announce that additional liquidi More...
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Forex Research - The Race to Zero Interest Rates
Global Forex Trading Friday November 28, 2008 - 21:56:54 GMT
With the global economic downturn in full swing, one of the burning questions on everyone’s minds is who will be the first central bank to take interest rates to zero and how close will everyone else get? More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Thread: November 28, 2008
Global-View Friday November 28, 2008 - 10:32:32 GMT
The USD is a touch firmer early Friday. This should be a holiday-restrained session today in the U.S. with the Thanksgiving holiday resulting in skeletal staffing. The flash Euro-zone HICP estimate was a sharply weaker 2.1% yr/yr. The unemployment rate wa More...
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Forex Market News - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Friday November 28, 2008 - 00:24:08 GMT
There was no market-moving news last night, and the US had their Thanksgiving holiday which deprived global markets from any clues regarding short-term direction. More...
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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 27-Nov-2008 - 1236 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Thursday November 27, 2008 - 12:42:45 GMT
Swiss has moved in a very narrow range between 1.1955 and 1.2024 during the day. The pair is making a S-H-S formation on the hourly chart with Support at 1.1955. We are holding Long on the pair. I More...
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Forex Blog - The Financial Fire Trucks Are Gathering
Thoughts from the Frontline Thursday November 27, 2008 - 11:52:48 GMT
"It will therefore be crucial that you see the world anew. That means looking from the outside in to reanalyze much that you have probably taken for granted. This will enable you to come to an More...
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Forex Research - How Do Currencies Behave Around Thanksgiving?
Global Forex Trading Wednesday November 26, 2008 - 22:34:49 GMT
On the eve before Thanksgiving, the price action in the currency market has been very erratic. Equities rallied for the fourth straight trading session while the US dollar weakened against the Australian and New Zealand dollars but strengthened against th More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday November 26, 2008 - 20:40:52 GMT
A lot of US economic data was released night, most of it weaker than expected. Durable goods orders were particularly awful, falling by 6.2% against expectations of -3%. More...
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Chart of the Day - 11/26/2008 - USD/JPY
FX Solutions Wednesday November 26, 2008 - 16:56:01 GMT
After breaking slightly above a key downtrend resistance line on Monday, price action on the USD/JPY (a daily chart of which is shown) has turned abruptly back down, respecting that dynamic resistance More...
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Dollar safe haven? Really!
Black Swan Capital Wednesday November 26, 2008 - 16:33:53 GMT
As every trader with some longevity knows the first question you should ask the moment a trade is made is this: Where am I wrong? And that question needs to be repeated hundreds of times in your head throughout the trade in order to stay open to new info More...
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Forex Research - USD: Markets Not Content With $800B
Global Forex Trading Tuesday November 25, 2008 - 22:33:45 GMT
This market has become more and more difficult to satisfy. The US government announced this morning that they will be spending as much as $800 billion to help ease lending for homeowners, consumers and small businesses. More...
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FOREX NEWS-US dollar falls vs euro as demand for safe haven eases
Reuters Tuesday November 25, 2008 - 21:19:08 GMT
The U.S. dollar dropped for a third day against the euro on Tuesday, giving the euro its best three-day percentage advance ever, as new U.S. measures to boost consumer lending helped ease concerns about the financial crisis, diminishing demand for the dol More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday November 25, 2008 - 20:54:52 GMT
The main news overnight is the US Federal Reserve committing an additional USD800 billion to stimulate lending: $600 billion to buy housing-finance company debt, and $200 billion to support consumer and small business loans. More...
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FX Blog-GVI Forex Analysis November 25, 2008 Pre-Far East Open
Global-View Tuesday November 25, 2008 - 20:26:18 GMT
The USD headed south on Tuesday even though equities generally traded sideways. This is a holiday-shortened week in the U.S. with the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday preceeded by early closures tomorrow, and skeletal staffing following on Friday. Most wi More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Tuesday November 25, 2008 - 17:24:20 GMT
The greenback was broadly softer throughout the New York morning thanks to the latest round of economic stimulation measures in the US as well as a new French package. French President Sarkozy said he would announce a “massive stimulus plan” within a More...
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Can we muster a 2-day stock rally?
Black Swan Capital Tuesday November 25, 2008 - 14:01:15 GMT
Yesterday looked like another day foreshadowing a decent dollar correction on the bounce higher in stocks. This morning we wake to a stronger dollar again….hmmm…and of course “new” concerns about... More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis New York Open November 25, 2008
Global-View Tuesday November 25, 2008 - 10:34:00 GMT
Forex trade is off to a cautious start today as dealers consolidate the significant USD downswing from yesterday. As usual, forex prices are following the swings in equity indices which surged yesterday as well following the Citi bailout plan. More...
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Forex Research - Stocks Soar But Watch Out for GDP Risk
Global Forex Trading Monday November 24, 2008 - 23:56:35 GMT
Another impressive rally in stocks has resurrected the talk of a bottom in the US equity markets. Although the sell-off last week may have hit value points, the risk of more turbulent times ahead keeps us skeptical of a long term recovery. It is difficult More...
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FX Blog- GVI Analysis November 25, 2008
Global-View Monday November 24, 2008 - 20:38:56 GMT
The Citi bailout program could turn out to have been a watershed events for the markets, but we will not know if this true for several months. Importantly, the government drew a bright red line around Citibank and all of the other institutions named insid More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday November 24, 2008 - 20:16:26 GMT
A couple of boosts to sentiment from the northern hemisphere last night helped equity markets rally back through key levels. The US Government agreed to bail out Citigroup last night, providing More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Monday November 24, 2008 - 18:00:21 GMT
In currencies, the typical inverse relationship between the equity markets and the USD- and JPY-related pairs remained in place this morning. EUR/USD is probing the upper end of its one-month consolidation range of 1.24-1.28, with dealers noting that the More...
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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 21-Nov-2008 - 1212 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday November 24, 2008 - 11:50:50 GMT
The currency has moved little since the last update. It has traded between 1.2161 and 1.2227 during the day. Some bit of consolidation is happening in this region after the surge that the pair has see More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis November 24, 2008
Global-View Monday November 24, 2008 - 10:35:42 GMT
The Citi bailout plan announced overnight has taken some of the USD risk premium ot of the market and has sent a signal to the equity markets what “too big to fail” now means. Unfortunately this was not done before LEH. Additional bear raids on major More...
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Forex Blog - Leverage Is an 8 Letter Word
Thoughts from the Frontline Saturday November 22, 2008 - 11:43:51 GMT
Leverage is an eight-letter word, which the markets now regard as twice as bad as the two four-letter words debt and pain (or fill in your own four-letter words). This week I try to give some insight into what is happening in the credit markets, some of i More...
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Forex Research - Market Soars on Obama Cabinet Picks
Global Forex Trading Saturday November 22, 2008 - 02:10:34 GMT
On a day when the market had nothing to be happy about, the leak of President-elect Barack Obama’s Cabinet announcements has erased one major uncertainty for the financial markets, sending equities and currencies soaring. More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Friday November 21, 2008 - 17:24:45 GMT
The greenback was mildly weaker on Friday but maintained its overall tone of consolidation as the week ended. The dollar's moves are extending its consolidation in a 1.24-1.28 range after hitting lows at 1.2330 back on Oct 27. While US equities have been More...
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Forex Blog - No One Home at Treasury, Fed
Foreign Exchange Analytics Friday November 21, 2008 - 16:53:38 GMT
Nero may have fiddled while Rome burned, but US Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke might as well be on their way to Disneyland in some phantasmagorical celebration of having successfully stabilized the financial system. That is what bot More...
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Forex Blog - FX Briefing - Euro: moderately weak
BHF-Bank Friday November 21, 2008 - 16:00:14 GMT
Renewed losses in equity markets and persistently weak economic data have boosted the dollar and the yen. However, considering that US equities hit new lows – the Dow Jones fell to almost 7500, and the S&P500 to about 750 – exchange rates were not aff More...
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Dollars Bulls Now Owe It to Tight Coupling
Black Swan Capital Friday November 21, 2008 - 14:27:29 GMT
I received an email from a reader that contained an interesting fact:
Seven separate assets currently maintain an 85% correlation (or better) with the S&P 500 over the last six months.
Included in that group is Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, emerging- More...
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FX Blog - EUR/USD Update
Global-View.com Friday November 21, 2008 - 11:52:55 GMT
Nothing surprises me in this market as the pendulum swings once again from panic to relief. Best we can say today is this is a relief rally but a better Wall Street will at the least lead to some consolidation after the sharp overnight moves. More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: N.Y. Open for November 21, 2008
Global-View Friday November 21, 2008 - 10:29:44 GMT
Equities overseas have rebounded from their lows early in the day after the weak U.S. close on Thursday. The approaching weekend might have forced some to lighten up on their shorts. Also speculation that Citi is pondering some sort of steps to resolve it More...
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FOREX NEWS-Yen, dollar fall as equity mkts recover poise
Reuters Friday November 21, 2008 - 09:59:45 GMT
The yen fell back sharply from earlier highs and the dollar weakened broadly on Friday as a rebound in global stocks from the previous day's rout curbed investors' demand for the Japanese and U.S. currencies. More...
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Forex Research - Dollar and Yen Soars on Liquidation and Repatriation
Global Forex Trading Thursday November 20, 2008 - 22:42:21 GMT
The financial markets have been very schizophrenic today indicating that investors are still nervous. It was another roller coaster session in US equities with the Dow hitting a 5 year low shortly after the market open, recovering all of those losses and More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday November 20, 2008 - 20:15:49 GMT
Last night's market action was highly significant, and takes us into new trading territory. The catalyst, as has been the case for the past few months, was global equity market selling, with the Dow falling below the important 8000 level. Should that inde More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Far East Open for November 21, 2008
Global-View Thursday November 20, 2008 - 20:13:13 GMT
Thursday was yet another difficult day for the markets. Politicians who apparently have no concept of the precarious state of the financial markets played brinksmanship with the bailout loan plan for the big three automakers. So much for “CHANGE”. More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Thursday November 20, 2008 - 16:59:24 GMT
The Swiss National Bank surprised currency traders with a big inter-meeting move, cutting rates in half with a 100 bps ease. The SNB said the surprise move was necessary as prices have fallen in both oil and raw materials at a rate that could put inflatio More...
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FX Blog - Market Observations
Global-View.com Thursday November 20, 2008 - 14:03:05 GMT
Void in leadership during transition has created a black hole in confidence. Where is Obama?
More...
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$ vs. Crude…Hmmm! (9 July 2008 Issue)
Black Swan Capital Thursday November 20, 2008 - 13:04:06 GMT
Best of CC: Below is a reprint of our 9 July 2008 Currency Currents where we examined the break down in the correlation between oil and the dollar—it was telling us something as we suspected. It’s another example of why we pay close attention to inte More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: N.Y. Open for November 20, 2008
Global-View Thursday November 20, 2008 - 10:41:32 GMT
Fear continues to rule in the financial markets. The yield on the two-year note has fallen to a new low of 1.07%, -2bps from its depressed levels on Wednesday. Risk aversion was put back on the table Wednesday after it became clear that the plea of the †More...
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Forex Research - Dollar Soars as S&P500 Hits 5 Year Lows
Global Forex Trading Wednesday November 19, 2008 - 22:18:06 GMT
Tuesday’s rebound in risk appetite was short-lived as the FOMC minutes revealed that the contraction in the US economy could last well into the summer of 2009. In light of the 400 point drop in the Dow, the US dollar and Japanese Yen regained strength a More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday November 19, 2008 - 20:27:02 GMT
Currencies remain rangebound, with the overall trend dictated by major global equity markets, and punctuated by the occasional large foreign exchange transaction (such as occurred last night in Europe). Comments from policymakers in the US and down under More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Wednesday November 19, 2008 - 17:50:30 GMT
The greenback moved lower ahead of the equity open on what appeared at first to be a technical correction or maybe some kind of intervention. Dealing desks later decided that the USD sell-off was just a reaction to the morning's spike in gold and oil pric More...
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Uninspired Moves in a Meandering Market
Black Swan Capital Wednesday November 19, 2008 - 15:06:22 GMT
Last week I touched on the potential end to the sideways US dollar correction. Then all of a sudden some unidentified reckless group came in to buy stocks and keep them from finishing at lows not seen since 2003. As I also mentioned, that effort gave trad More...
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FX Blog - YEN Update
Global-View.com Wednesday November 19, 2008 - 14:00:34 GMT
Another day, another stock watching day for the yen? In any case, ranges continue to compress More...
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Forex Research - Euro Quiet as Volatility Cools –Upside to Come?
Global Forex Trading Wednesday November 19, 2008 - 11:14:23 GMT
Another lackluster session of Asian and early European trade with majors locked into tight ranges as volatility compresses across all capital markets. The Nikkei drifted slightly lower ending the day -55 from yesterday’s close and European markets follo More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Far East Open for November 18, 2008
Global-View Tuesday November 18, 2008 - 20:25:31 GMT
One focus of trade today was House testimony by Secretary Paulson, Fed Chairman Bernanke and FDIC Chief Bair. Not much progress was made on the TARP program update, but Paulson did make the point that the financial system has been stabilized. More...
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Forex Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday November 18, 2008 - 20:06:08 GMT
Following the pattern of recent weeks, non-US currencies tracked the equity indices closely overnight. The Dow Jones index rose 2.5% in the early US session, but has given up that gain at the time of writing. Most currencies are currently around the level More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Tuesday November 18, 2008 - 17:18:56 GMT
In currencies, the greenback is following the lead of equity markets: the USD and JPY tend to follow the equity markets inversely, and today was no exception. As noted during the European morning, the question of the day among dealing desks remains whethe More...
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FOREX NEWS-Euro slips, dragged lower by weak shares
Reuters Tuesday November 18, 2008 - 11:53:15 GMT
The euro fell against the dollar and the yen on Tuesday, as a stream of evidence that the global economy is continuing to suffer kept demand intact for unwinding risky positions in favour of low-yielding currencies. More...
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GVI Forex Analysis Thread: November 18, 2008
Global-View Tuesday November 18, 2008 - 10:30:27 GMT
Risk-aversion has been back on the table Tuesday, as key global equities continue to probe for a floor. Traders are now facing the danger of an “L-shaped” recovery rather than a “V” or a “U”. The lackluster outcome of the G20 meeting has fuele More...
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Forex Research - Is the Dollar Rally Over?
Global Forex Trading Monday November 17, 2008 - 22:46:00 GMT
Since the summer, the US dollar has staged a remarkable rally, but with manufacturing data surprising to the upside and the US dollar giving back its gains today, everyone is wondering whether the dollar rally is over. The British pound, which has seen on More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dollar falls vs yen on global recession fears
Reuters Monday November 17, 2008 - 22:08:40 GMT
The dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Monday, as weak U.S. manufacturing data deepened worries about the global economy, and investors fretted that leaders worldwide ended a weekend meeting with few concrete proposals for dealing with this year's do More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Far East Open for November 18, 2008
Global-View Monday November 17, 2008 - 20:33:34 GMT
Traders were remarkably cautious on Monday in N.Y. The lackluster outcome of the G20 meeting was unsurprising, but still a disappointment. Apart from a lot of hot air, they decided to meet before the end of April. There were too many participants and the More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday November 17, 2008 - 19:49:57 GMT
Currency markets were largely subdued after the New Zealand close, with the US equity markets again driving most of the movement. Asian equities remained largely stable, Europe ended weaker, and the Dow Jones index initially fell 250 points. The ensuing D More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Monday November 17, 2008 - 17:55:43 GMT
The greenback was weaker against the European pairs on a combination of recent-profit taking and higher crude prices. GBP/USD rose over 350+ pips as dealers noted good interest from far eastern names from the start of the European session. GBP/JPY is firm More...
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G-20: No new structures—maybe a reality bite!
Black Swan Capital Monday November 17, 2008 - 17:55:13 GMT
No major new global frameworks were hashed out by the G-20. Dollar is giving back some gains from that late blow-off move very late in the day on Friday. The pound is staging a nice-sized bounce.
More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: N.Y.Close for November 17, 2008
Global-View Monday November 17, 2008 - 10:37:47 GMT
The lack of a definitive outcome from the G20 meeting over the weekend was unsurprising, but still a disappointment to some. Inessence the group decided to meet again before the end of April. In retrospect, its had to imagine what the group collectively c More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Sunday November 16, 2008 - 20:48:40 GMT
Currencies continued to look to equity markets for direction, ensuring another rollercoaster ride on Friday night. The major currencies were flat or slightly higher against the US dollar during the New York session, but US equities gave up the ghost near More...
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Forex Blog - The Economy Gets a Margin Call
Thoughts from the Frontline Sunday November 16, 2008 - 14:11:52 GMT
So, this week I take another look at my Muddle Through stance. We look at some of the recent data on unemployment and retail sales, think about the implications of a falling trade deficit and a rising US government deficit, speculate about the potential f More...
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FX Blog- GVI Month Ahead Interest Rate Forecasts 16 November 2008
Global-View Saturday November 15, 2008 - 15:54:16 GMT
In these markets, the successful trader has to take each situation on its own terms. Forex markets remain thin and illiquid. At the moment, the markets continue to take on and off the risk aversion trade depending on whether equities trade higher or low More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Friday November 14, 2008 - 16:50:23 GMT
The greenback has sustained its mixed tone during the New York morning as it firmed against the European pairs but trended lower against the JPY from opening levels in Asia. EUR/USD was at 1.2680, firmer by 100 pips from opening levels. More...
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FX Briefing - Pound nears all-time lows
BHF-Bank Friday November 14, 2008 - 15:53:12 GMT
Financial markets cheered up initially at the beginning of the week after the announcement that China was launching a fiscal stimulus package and would spend the gigantic sum of Rmb 4,000bn More...
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Canadian Dollar Forming Bottom
Forex Hound Friday November 14, 2008 - 14:58:08 GMT
If you have not noticed, most commodity markets have, for the most part, been holding the lows established over the last two to four weeks. Soybeans are holding the low put in on October 16, Gold and More...
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Our Euro Comments: A Nasty Head-Fake
Black Swan Capital Friday November 14, 2008 - 14:45:48 GMT
On Tuesday, in Currency Currents, I got into some Elliot Wave Principle in order to discuss why the US dollar correction might have been over, opening the door for sharp appreciation.
Until yesterday afternoon my forecast was right on the money. The US More...
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Forex Research - No Follow Through Rally - Euro Drifts Lower All Night
Global Forex Trading Friday November 14, 2008 - 10:45:48 GMT
Asian and European equity markets followed through with only a modest rise after the 900 point turnaround to the upside in the DJIA yesterday and risk currencies drifted lower as a result with EUR/USD trading back below the 1.2700 handle despite some surp More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: N.Y. Open for November 14, 2008
Global-View Friday November 14, 2008 - 10:27:44 GMT
The focus is back on the U.S. following the late afternoon surge in equity prices on Thursday. Most are prepared for a correction today into the weekend, and are dismissing the move as a bear market rally. Mainly weak u.S. data are expected today. More...
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Forex Research - Has the US Dollar Hit a Top or is this a Mirage?
Global Forex Trading Thursday November 13, 2008 - 22:58:45 GMT
In every major bear market, there are relief rallies and that is what we have seen today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 300 points during the US trading session before reversing violently to end the day up more than 550 point More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday November 13, 2008 - 20:18:20 GMT
A virtual repeat of previous sessions, with the major currencies marking time until US equity markets opened, then following in lockstep. Equities fared better last night though, with the Dow in slightly positive territory at the time of writing, recoveri More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: November 14, 2008
Global-View Thursday November 13, 2008 - 19:41:20 GMT
The focus was back on the U.S. with the key weekly jobless claims on the oprn surpassing the psychological 500,000 line. They are seen by many as the most current indicator of the strength or weakness) of the economy. Trade data improved due to weak impor More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Thursday November 13, 2008 - 17:37:43 GMT
The greenback has been mixed in a trading session wracked by multiple cross currents as traders try to determine which sector of the global economy has been least impacted by the slowdown. More...
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Forex Research - Euro Stages A Comeback Despite Horrid German GD
Global Forex Trading Thursday November 13, 2008 - 10:43:25 GMT
Yesterday we noted that, “another triple digit slaughter in equities could easily drag the pair towards the 1.2400 handle for a retest of its recent lows.” In today’s late Asian trade that scenario played out to a tee as the EUR/USD was beaten down More...
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FX Blog- GVI Weekly Interest Rate Forecasts 12 November 2008
Global-View Wednesday November 12, 2008 - 23:19:36 GMT
As we have been predicting central banks are all getting on the same page on policy. Unfortunately, the ECB still sems to be dragging its feet. On the other hand, the Bank of England finally capitulated and acknowledged the error of its ways and announced More...
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FOREX NEWS-Yen rallies as stocks sell off; pound tumbles
Reuters Wednesday November 12, 2008 - 21:24:35 GMT
The U.S. dollar tumbled against the yen on Wednesday as investors shunned risky assets after comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson heightened concerns about the economy and sparked a global sell-off in equities. More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Thread: November 13, 2008
Global-View Wednesday November 12, 2008 - 20:56:10 GMT
The BOE quarterly inflation report was a major development Wednesday as it kept open the door for additional aggressive ease in the near future. The GBP tumbled vs. the USD and on its crosses in response. There was market speculation that a big seller of More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday November 12, 2008 - 20:33:13 GMT
Overnight price action was a virtual rerun of the previous two days, with riskier currencies holding their ground against the USD until the minute that US equity markets opened. Equities fell heavily after US Treasury Secretary Paulson said that buying to More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Wednesday November 12, 2008 - 17:43:35 GMT
The greenback has displayed mixed price action during the New York morning among the major pairs. USD/CAD remains bid on the back of the lower trend in oil prices as front-month NYMEX crude posts fresh 20-month lows. In addition, the Bank of Canada announ More...
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Von Mises doesn’t think much of ZIRP!
Black Swan Capital Wednesday November 12, 2008 - 13:59:41 GMT
Commenting on Bank of England Governor Kings recent utterances, Bloomberg shared this story today:
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) ``We are certainly prepared to cut bank rate if that proves to be necessary'' to hit the central bank's 2 percent inflation target, s More...
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FOREX NEWS-Euro pares gains on weak data, stg down on BoE
Reuters Wednesday November 12, 2008 - 13:07:40 GMT
The euro pared gains against the dollar on Wednesday after data underlined economic weakness, while sterling tumbled after a grim Bank of England forecast fuelled expectations for more UK interest rate cuts. More...
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Forex Research - Sterling Hits 12 Year Lows – 1.50 Next?
Global Forex Trading Wednesday November 12, 2008 - 10:48:46 GMT
The sterling index hit 12 year lows today with cable hitting 1.5321 in morning London trade after UK labor data showed a rise in jobless claims of 36.5K. Although the number was a tad less than expectations it was nevertheless the highest reading since th More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: N.Y. Open for November 12, 2008
Global-View Wednesday November 12, 2008 - 10:38:00 GMT
The just-released BOE quarterly inflation report has left the door open for additional aggressive ease in the near future.
N.Y. markets return to full strength today foolowing the Tuesday partial holiday. Activity this week has also been hampered by a s More...
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Forex Research - USD: Good News Versus Bad News
Global Forex Trading Tuesday November 11, 2008 - 23:30:41 GMT
Every day, equities, currency and bond traders weigh the good news with the bad to determine if they want to buy or sell. Today, there were just as many positive reports that should have helped to stabilize the markets but has instead failed to stem the b More...
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Forex Blog - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday November 11, 2008 - 20:34:43 GMT
Investors retreated further from risk during a holiday-thinned New York trading session. The last few days have seen a clear split between sentiment in local time, where China's fiscal stimulus package has boosted confidence in the Asia region, and in the More...
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Defining the Correction, and Finding Its End!
Black Swan Capital Tuesday November 11, 2008 - 15:57:03 GMT
Jack’s been running around speaking at various currency tours and seminars this year. And there’s one line he likes to use when conveying the uncertainty of trading in any market ...
“It’s better to be lucky than good.”
In other words, whe More...
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FX Blog - Thoughts On The Market
Global-View.com Tuesday November 11, 2008 - 15:39:05 GMT
My thoughts are we are in for this type of market the rest of the year - not much will change - lousy data, focus on stocks, flow and order driven, less spec driven, rate cuts. More...
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FOREX NEWS-Euro supported as sterling slides, ZEW awaited
Reuters Tuesday November 11, 2008 - 10:08:15 GMT
The euro rose against the dollar and the yen on Tuesday as traders brushed off a slide in share prices and focused on the single European currency's rally, nearing a record high against a broadly weaker sterling. More...
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Forex Blog - Pinning Hopes on China
Global Forex Trading Monday November 10, 2008 - 22:29:57 GMT
US equity traders realize that everyone is pinning too much hope on China. The big story in the financial markets today is the 4 trillion Yuan or $586 billion stimulus plan announced by China on Sunday. Equities in Asia rallied strongly overnight, taking More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday November 10, 2008 - 21:19:55 GMT
Risky assets initially maintained their upward momentum on the back of the fiscal stimulus package announced by China yesterday, but couldn't sustain those gains through the New York session. The Chinese stimulus package of nUS$585bn, equivalent to around More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex: Far East Open for November 11, 2008
Global-View Monday November 10, 2008 - 18:08:51 GMT
A mid-week partial holiday in the U.S. tends to be very disruptive to trading. U.S. bond markets are closing shortly, but equity trading will continue. Fed holidays tend to shut down the interbank forex market because of required cash settlement of transa More...
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China to the rescue—maybe! And ChartView
Black Swan Capital Monday November 10, 2008 - 14:45:27 GMT
China’s new fiscal stimulus package is receiving rave reviews across the board this morning. Bond prices lower, stocks higher, oil higher, gold higher and the dollar getting whacked—it’s déjà vu all over again for the risk appetite crowd.
Shou More...
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Forex Research - Euro Rises as Chinese Announce Major Stimulus Package
Global Forex Trading Monday November 10, 2008 - 10:39:11 GMT
EUR/USD pushed higher at the start of the week on much better risk appetite flows after Chinese authorities announced a major stimulus package for the next two years which could equal up to 15% of the country’s GDP The Chinese officials announced plans More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: N.Y. Open for November 11, 2008
Global-View Monday November 10, 2008 - 10:33:11 GMT
China has announced a nearly USD 600bln domestic economic stimulus program. Some of the items had been previously announced, but the bulk of the spending is new. The announcement gave Far East bourses a lift. In the U.S., the government has made the terms More...
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Forex Blog - The Problem With Deleveraging
Thoughts from the Frontline Saturday November 8, 2008 - 11:51:31 GMT
In this week's letter we discuss "The Great Unwind," that process of deleveraging that we are now in the midst of. We also explore some recent economic data on the economy. More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dollar retreats vs euro after U.S. jobs gloom
Reuters Friday November 7, 2008 - 21:40:55 GMT
The dollar dipped against most major currencies on Friday after data showed U.S. employers cut 240,000 jobs last month, pushing the jobless rate to a 14-year high and adding more dark clouds to a gloomy economic horizon More...
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FX Briefing - The “Big Three” directionless
BHF-Bank Friday November 7, 2008 - 17:51:34 GMT
The protracted financial crisis is having a marked impact on the real economy worldwide. The third quarter was weak, but it looks as though the fourth quarter will be even weaker. The current data are alarming: in the US, the ISM index for the manufacturi More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Friday November 7, 2008 - 17:26:16 GMT
In currencies, the greenback was mixed in US trading following the October non-farm payroll report. As noted during the European session, the dollar price action has been more dependent on equity movements as higher stocks usually suggest a weak USD and J More...
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Forex Research - Dollar Wobbly Ahead of NFP
Global Forex Trading Friday November 7, 2008 - 11:46:07 GMT
After being buffeted by risk aversion flows all day longyesterday, the dollar was weaker across the board in early European trade as equity markets staged a mild rally and currency tradersprepared for the US Non- Farm payroll number due at 13:30 GMT today More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: N.Y. Open for November 7, 2008
Global-View Friday November 7, 2008 - 10:32:02 GMT
The USD is generally lower heading into the October U.S. employment report at 13:30 GMT. Jobs are expected to have fallen by -200K in the month. There are estimates for even a worse outcome. The markets know already that the economy is weak, but the data More...
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FOREX NEWS-Euro slides as ECB rate cut disappoints market
Reuters Thursday November 6, 2008 - 23:32:07 GMT
The euro fell broadly on Thursday after the European Central Bank cut interest rates by half a percentage point, disappointing investors who thought sluggish economic growth called for a more aggressive move.
More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday November 6, 2008 - 19:38:09 GMT
It was one-way traffic in US equity markets, the DJIA sliding >400pts in afternoon NYSE trade, stoking the safe haven/ repatriation bid for USD. Equity volatility index VIX rebounded to over 64%, its highest level since 29 Oct. More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Thursday November 6, 2008 - 16:57:39 GMT
Rate cut fever swept through the currency markets this morning. The BoE made its biggest cut ever, slashing rates by 150bps to 3.00%. The ECB cut for the second time in a month, taking 50 bps off of its key rate, bringing it to 3.25%. More...
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Forex Blog - Straw Man Arguments
Foreign Exchange Analytics Thursday November 6, 2008 - 16:36:12 GMT
I am a day late on this one, maybe two but I have to get this off my chest as the bloviating class launches full force into an attempt to paint Obama administration as overreaching on the economy with tax and regulatory issues before it has had time to ev More...
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Central Banks in Europe Exciting This Market
Black Swan Capital Thursday November 6, 2008 - 15:33:24 GMT
Today is interest rate day! That is, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank culminate their most recent monetary policy discussions and announce changes to their benchmark interest rates.
The BOE actually just decided to cut rates a full per More...
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Reflections on today's ECB's Rate Decision
Larry Greenberg Thursday November 6, 2008 - 15:07:45 GMT
the move was only a third as forceful as the Bank of England’s and in that context appears to timid. A 75-basis point cut was also considered and should have been chosen instead. More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: N.Y. Open for November 6, 2008
Global-View Thursday November 6, 2008 - 10:24:04 GMT
Today sees major monetary policy decisions from the BOE and ECB. The BOE is expected to cut at least by 50bps to 4.00%. Speculation has grown for -75 or -100 bps ease. The ECB should cut by -50bps to 3.25%. Talk of a larger cut is misplaced. Trichet press More...
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Forex Research - Why Non-Farm Payrolls Could Fall by 300K
Global Forex Trading Wednesday November 5, 2008 - 23:04:50 GMT
The sweeping victory of Barack Obama in the US Presidential Race has been the biggest story of the day. Obama supporters are ecstatic, but the financial markets are not. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped close to 500 today while the reaction in the More...
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Far East Open for November 6, 2008
Global-View Wednesday November 5, 2008 - 20:27:45 GMT
Thursday sees major monetary policy decisions from the BOE and ECB. Markets feel interest rate cuts by both are a sure thing. The BOE is expected to cut at least by 50bps to 4.00%. Recent speculation has been building for -75 or -100 bps ease. The ECB is More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday November 5, 2008 - 19:30:36 GMT
USD jagged lower in thin London/NY trade, with apparent gloom over Friday’s US employment report, including some forecasts being revised to -300K on NFP. The DJIA opened weaker and extended losses i More...
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We know it’s never easy and there is no Holy Grail. But…
Black Swan Capital Wednesday November 5, 2008 - 13:35:04 GMT
…we are big believers that after following the chain of price action, sooner or later, it all comes back in some way to the rate of interest. Interest rates are the core of all things financial, though the link may be seemingly distorted at times.
More...
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FX Blog- GVI New York Open for November 5, 2008
Global-View Wednesday November 5, 2008 - 10:40:07 GMT
Obama won a big victory in th U.S. Tueasday. His party gained strong majorities in the House and Senate, but did not get filibuster-proof control of the Senate. That would have required 60 seats, but they won 54 seats. Two independent Senators will caucus More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for November 5, 2008
Global-View Tuesday November 4, 2008 - 19:44:41 GMT
Its being called the “Obama bounce”. Financial markets set up Tuesday for an Obama victory and rally on Wednesday. That suggests that the rally has already happened.
The results of the U.S. elections will likely be known early this evening. If the p More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday November 4, 2008 - 19:42:28 GMT
Appetite for risk gained strength from London into New York, backed by the DJIA being less volatile than usual and holding good gains into the NY afternoon (300pts) as the US public went to the polls. More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Tuesday November 4, 2008 - 18:09:32 GMT
In currencies, the bounce in risk appetite ahead of the US election results is being complemented by growing hunger for the expected European interest rate cuts later this week. Fitch noted in a recent report that it expects a severe global recession in 2 More...
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That Day is Finally Here
Black Swan Capital Tuesday November 4, 2008 - 16:50:41 GMT
November 4, 2008: Some of us might have been waiting for this day longer than others. Some of us may have been clamoring for it, while some of us may have been dreading its arrival. Either way, that day is here and a major change could be in order. That†More...
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FX Blog- GVI Month Ahead Interest Rate Forecasts 5 November 2008
Global-View Tuesday November 4, 2008 - 14:14:16 GMT
The major central banks continue to act in concert as increasingly concern about deflation is being bandied about. This is curious because year/year inflation readings (see charts below) are recording levels well ABOVE the target ranges for those central More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dlr slips; investors await US election verdict
Reuters Tuesday November 4, 2008 - 13:27:15 GMT
The dollar slipped broadly on Tuesday as global stock markets took on a brighter complexion, with investors anticipating aggressive interest rate cuts to help stimulate flagging economies and the U.S. election outcome. More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for November 4, 2008
Global-View Tuesday November 4, 2008 - 10:40:43 GMT
The RBA decision to cut by -75bps to 5.25% is being seen as an aggressive step and putting pressure on the BOE and ECB for significant ease om Thursday. There has been increasing deflationry talk creeping into economic commentaries recently as economic da More...
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FX Blog- GVI Far East Open for November 4, 2008
Global-View Monday November 3, 2008 - 20:27:02 GMT
Dealers are looking ahead to the RBA decision at 03:30 GMT. Street estimates have been for a -50 bp rate cut to 5.50%, although forecasts for -75 and -100bps have been bouncing around.
A key focus Tuesday will be the results of U.S. elections. The presi More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday November 3, 2008 - 19:32:48 GMT
FX markets traded in a mostly muted fashion in London/NY, with unusually tight ranges on the DJIA (as of early afternoon NY) not encouraging aggressive positioning. The Oct manufacturing ISM was even worse than consensus of 41.0, at 38.9 (low since 1982) More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Monday November 3, 2008 - 17:14:11 GMT
Risk aversion has crept back into currency markets throughout the New York morning as traders fret over the prospects of global recession. The EU Commission's official declaration of a Euro Zone recession was compounded by softer PMI data from various Eur More...
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Risk aversion ebbs this morning…Comdol time?
Black Swan Capital Monday November 3, 2008 - 13:15:25 GMT
Gold is sharply higher this morning…up $20 bucks. Stocks globally are doing well and premarket SPU is bidding a bit higher. Oil is trying to turn higher.
Ebb in risk aversion means a flow of risk appetite by definition. And risk appetite may mea More...
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USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for November 3, 2008
Global-View Monday November 3, 2008 - 10:42:02 GMT
Dealers are uncertain about what the new month will bring with some fund managers now redeploying assets for a new fiscal year. Following the past one, odds are they will cautious about the new one. The months ahead are likely see weak data from most econ More...
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Forex Blog - Electing the Janitor-in-Chief
Thoughts from the Frontline Saturday November 1, 2008 - 10:25:10 GMT
This week we survey the economic landscape that the new president will inherit. It is a polite understatement to say that he will be getting a serious mess. In reality, the US goes to the polls this next Tuesday to elect a Janitor-in-Chief. He will face a More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Friday October 31, 2008 - 16:16:51 GMT
In currencies, concerns deepened regarding slowing global growth headlined by weak German Retail Sales, cautious comments from the BoJ and seven-year lows in the Oct Chicago PMI, bringing risk aversion back into the market after several days of confidence More...
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Forex Blog - FX Briefing - Tentative recovery
BHF-Bank Friday October 31, 2008 - 15:54:59 GMT
Financial markets are still under the spell of the credit crisis and its impact on the global economy. The extensive bank support measures announced by governments in the industrialized countries and numerous government capital injections have to some ext More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/31/2008 - EUR/USD
FX Solutions Friday October 31, 2008 - 15:03:22 GMT
Price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, has clearly been rejected at the resistance imposed by a key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and an important prior support/resistance level More...
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Ultimately a probability bet it is!
Black Swan Capital Friday October 31, 2008 - 12:59:58 GMT
Cross-border financial links are much tighter in a “globalized” world, no doubt. Thus, contagion is more than a four letter word. When these cross-border financial links are supercharged with leverage, as they are, it’s difficult to believe we’v More...
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EURUSD Forex Technical Review
Forex Hound Friday October 31, 2008 - 10:51:07 GMT
The pair has retraced nicely after the 1.2330-1.3300 move, it reached the 50%Fibonacci line yesterday and after a quick bounce it pushed lower closing in on the 61.8 Fib More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dlr broadly firmer; yen up on risk wariness
Reuters Friday October 31, 2008 - 10:13:15 GMT
The dollar was firmer against most major currencies on Friday, on expectations of large dollar demand for the month-end, while the yen was also buoyed as a fall in Asian share prices renewed risk aversion. More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 31, 2008
Global-View Friday October 31, 2008 - 09:45:47 GMT
The BOJ cut rates as expected earlier today, but made the mistake of not making a unanimous vote on the policy move, and cutting by only -20bps to 0.30%. The deision was seen as a tepid one and the Nikkei fell by 5% and the JPY spiked higher. A better dec More...
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FOREX NEWS-US dollar steadies as risk aversion eases
Reuters Thursday October 30, 2008 - 21:21:22 GMT
The U.S. dollar rose against the yen on Thursday, but was little changed against the euro, after gains in world stock markets and an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday helped ease the recent flight into the dollar.
More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 31, 2008
Global-View Thursday October 30, 2008 - 18:37:42 GMT
The immediate focus now is the expected BOJ -25bp rate cut on Friday to 0.25%. This move was signaled in the Nikkei News late Tuesday. The BOJ is well known for consensus building before its policy moves.
Monthend volatility is expected to continue thro More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Thursday October 30, 2008 - 16:37:04 GMT
The return of risk appetite during the Asia and early European session weighed on the carry-related pairs, with volatility remaining a big factor as a brutal October winds down. The better-than-expected US GDP reading helped the greenback decouple from it More...
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Federal Reserve and IMF are Getting Good with Handouts.
Black Swan Capital Thursday October 30, 2008 - 15:57:33 GMT
Does the â€establishment of temporary reciprocal currency arrangements’ mean anything to you?
Yeah, it kind of went by me in a blur the first time I read it. Basically, this has become one of the side shows for the Federal Reserve. They cut their be More...
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GBPUSD Forex Technical Report
Forex Hound Thursday October 30, 2008 - 10:04:24 GMT
GBP USD moved towards the 1.6700 resistance zone forming higher lows and higher highs clearly marking the trend More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 30, 2008
Global-View Thursday October 30, 2008 - 09:31:57 GMT
Volatility monthend tomorrow in sight is the major theme. Fed decision yesterday to cut by 50bps should not have been a factor nor its gloomy economic view as both were as expected.
Fed made a total of 120bln available in swaps line to four well capital More...
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Forex Research - Fed Cuts 50bp, Opening the Door to ZIRP
Global Forex Trading Wednesday October 29, 2008 - 22:12:09 GMT
The Fed decided to yield to popular opinion today by cutting rates by 50bp. This widely expected decision has brought rates down to the historically low levels of 1.0%. This strikes as an interesting correlation between Fed cuts from 2000-2003, which even More...
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FOREX NEWS-US dollar posts biggest daily fall in 23 years
Reuters Wednesday October 29, 2008 - 22:08:25 GMT
The U.S. dollar posted its biggest one-day fall in 23 years on Wednesday, with the Federal Reserve delivering an interest-rate cut, easing investor concern about the world economy and reducing the need to repatriate dollars from riskier markets. More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday October 29, 2008 - 20:21:03 GMT
The US Fed cut its funds target by 50bp to 1.0% following this week’s FOMC meeting. The statement noted that the economy had slowed markedly, in particular due to weaker consumer spending, while inflation was likely to moderate. The Fed noted More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 30, 2008
Global-View Wednesday October 29, 2008 - 19:44:33 GMT
The focus of trade Wednesday in North America was on the Fed decision due in mid-afternoon. At its meeting the central bank decided to cut the 1.50% Fed Funds target by 50bps to 1.00%. As expected, the central bank also signaled future ease More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/29/2008 - GBP/USD
FX Solutions Wednesday October 29, 2008 - 16:46:44 GMT
Price action on GBP/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has rebounded in a major way for the last couple of days. Among other catalysts of this rebound, traders’ expectations of potential dollar More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Wednesday October 29, 2008 - 16:22:24 GMT
In currencies, traders are closely watching for coordinated action by central banks around the globe. The ball got rolling yesterday after a Nikkei report suggested that the BoJ was considering cutting rates in half. More...
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Correction upon us? AUD-JPY Bounce is due!
Black Swan Capital Wednesday October 29, 2008 - 14:19:38 GMT
Buy the rumor of a 1% Fed Funds and sell the news? Hmmm….Maybe today’s better than expected US durable goods orders will neutralize that in here.
The key question: How long will this “correction” last? Will the one-day correction make it to tw More...
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FX Blog- GVI Weekly Interest Rate Forecasts 29 October 2008
Global-View Wednesday October 29, 2008 - 12:30:52 GMT
Odds are the Federal Reserve will cut its target rate for Fed Funds by -50bps to 1.00% later today. An easing of policy has already been signaled by Fed Chairman Bernanke. We had felt the Fed would ease by only -25bps to reserve a couple of bullets for fu More...
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EURUSD Higher Lows
Forex Hound Wednesday October 29, 2008 - 09:57:47 GMT
EURUSD has pushed nicely higher, forming new highs and higher lows after bouncing from what look to be a small double bottom at 1.2330. More...
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USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 29, 2008
Global-View Wednesday October 29, 2008 - 09:32:51 GMT
Forex markets remain closely tied to the performance of U.S. share markets. The late Tuesday spike in U.S. share prices drove the USD lower, and that soft tone has carried over into today.
The Nikkei spiked higher today. Other Asian bourses were mixed. More...
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Forex Research - FOMC Preview: What to Expect From the Fed
Global Forex Trading Tuesday October 28, 2008 - 22:35:24 GMT
The biggest event risk this week is undoubtedly the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Now more than ever, the Fed’s decision could turnaround the currency and equity markets. More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday October 28, 2008 - 19:42:33 GMT
he improvement in risk appetite seen late in yesterday’s session extended to offshore trade, to the great benefit of yen crosses but no clear movement in the USD. The Dow rose more than 500pts in afternoon trade, recovering from jitters after US consume More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 29, 2008
Global-View Tuesday October 28, 2008 - 18:40:43 GMT
All the markets remain closely tied to the performance of U.S. share markets. Tuesday was certainly a unique session with a squeeze on VW shorts in Germany driving its price and the DAX up sharply.
Also, Asian bourses have gained and European exchanges More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/28/2008 - USD/JPY
FX Solutions Tuesday October 28, 2008 - 15:56:29 GMT
After a remarkable plunge last week in the USD/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, price action has finally made a major rebound during overnight trading as of Tuesday morning in New York More...
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Kookburger Time! A rant it is!
Black Swan Capital Tuesday October 28, 2008 - 12:50:21 GMT
Editors Note: Warning to gold lovers, conspiracy nuts, and US haters. This rant you may want to avoid.
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The conspiracy crowd is working overtime these days.
Many “deep thinkers” among the gold crowd still spout conspiracy stuff on a More...
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GBPUSD Short Term Reversal
Forex Hound Tuesday October 28, 2008 - 10:01:29 GMT
GBP USD has bounced of the year's low formed last Friday at 1.5265; after a failed attempt to break through we witnessed a slow move upwards that seems to accelerate. More...
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Forex Research - US Dollar: Another Failed Attempt at Stabilization
Global Forex Trading Monday October 27, 2008 - 21:42:09 GMT
After the sharp volatility in the currency and equity markets during the Asian and European trading sessions, the US session was relatively quiet up until the last 10 minutes of trading. For most of the US session, stocks oscillated between positive and n More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday October 27, 2008 - 21:03:59 GMT
A relatively slow news day in the US and inconclusive price action on Wall Street saw the USD retreat from its early London strength. US new home sales were better than expected, posting a monthly rise in September, providing some passing support to equit More...
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USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 28, 2008
Global-View Monday October 27, 2008 - 19:48:04 GMT
The performance of U.S. share markets was not stellar Monday, but once again they did not pile onto overseas weakness heading into N.Y. trading.
The G7 set the stage for forex intervention early in the day Monday as it voiced its concerns about the rece More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/27/2008 - EUR/USD
FX Solutions Monday October 27, 2008 - 16:30:27 GMT
Since the second peak of the double-top high was hit in mid-July, price on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, has plummeted drastically, with only one major correction in September. More...
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And the Beat[Down] Goes On ...
Black Swan Capital Monday October 27, 2008 - 13:48:36 GMT
Ahhh, let’s see ... recent buzz words in the investor vernacular have been risky assets, subprime, inflation, decoupling, current account, globalization ... and the list goes on.
The newest buzz word to make the list: deleveraging.
More...
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Forex Blog - Sleeping G7 Giant Roars or Snores?
Foreign Exchange Analytics Monday October 27, 2008 - 13:09:07 GMT
At the apparent behest of Japan’s Ministry of Finance Sunday, G7 issued a communiquĂ© essentially calling for market participants to stop buying yen. Here is what the statement said:
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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 27-Oct-2008 - 1255 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Monday October 27, 2008 - 13:01:24 GMT
A shot at the Resistance at 1.17 has failed once again. The pair rose only to face Resistance at 1.1714 and a fall since then has found some Support at 1.16. The day ahead could see the pair slip furt More...
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Economics Weekly - UK data will keep focus on recession risk
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Monday October 27, 2008 - 11:03:00 GMT
The preliminary estimate last week showed that the UK economy contracted by 0.5% in Q3 compared with the previous quarter. This represents the first contraction in output since Q2 1992 and the biggest quarterly fall since Q4 1990. The market consensus vie More...
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USDCHF Bullish Channel
Forex Hound Monday October 27, 2008 - 09:45:34 GMT
USDCHF has been trading inside the same channel for the past week, once the pair broke above the 1.1485/1.15 resistance More...
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USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 27, 2008
Global-View Monday October 27, 2008 - 09:41:36 GMT
The G7 has set the stage for forex intervention as they have voiced their concerns about the recent JPY volatility. One problem they face is that this is not a speculative move into the JPY. It is the unwinding of a decade long structural move into carry More...
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Forex Research - Will the Fed Put a Stop to the Dollar Rally?
Global Forex Trading Friday October 24, 2008 - 23:45:33 GMT
Contrary to the some people’s belief, the US equities did not crash today. When S&P futures hit its limit down levels before the US markets opened and Dow futures dropped 5 percent, some media outlets were touting the possibility of circuit breakers kic More...
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Just when it started to look safe for a dollar correction…
Black Swan Capital Friday October 24, 2008 - 18:29:49 GMT
Though we luckily have not had the experience, and the physical pain is obviously different, this move in the dollar today seems to us the psychological equivalent to being chomped on by a 20 ft. long white shark. Blam! Right from out of the blue depths More...
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Forex Blog- FX Briefing - Yen and dollar surge
BHF-Bank Friday October 24, 2008 - 16:26:41 GMT
The dollar and the yen in particular surged this week. The US currency gained almost 6% against the euro to around 1.26, and the yen more than 14% to 116JPY per euro. The pound sterling, the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar also plummeted by a More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Friday October 24, 2008 - 16:06:29 GMT
The carry-related trades displayed dramatic price movements on Friday. One hedge fund manger noted that JPY-related flows have been rippling around the globe in recent trading sessions, whereas previously the flows had originated from Australia via the AU More...
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FX Blog- GVI Weekly Forex Forecasts 24 October 2008
Global-View Friday October 24, 2008 - 13:47:45 GMT
The volatility in Forex markets in the latest week has been without precedent. This instability has been driven by the sell-off in equity markets and declining liquidity. One of the epicenters of trade has been an unwiding of a decade-long accumulation of More...
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FOREX NEWS-Yen rockets as risk aversion hits extremes
Reuters Friday October 24, 2008 - 12:49:20 GMT
The yen shot to multi-year highs versus the dollar and euro on Friday, as tumbling global stock markets intensified risk aversion, crystallising investor fears on the possibility of a prolonged global recession. More...
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USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 24, 2008
Global-View Friday October 24, 2008 - 09:47:21 GMT
The stage has been set for another coordinated rate cut. The focus of monetary policy now is still on the BOE ans ECB. Both have badly bungled policy recently. The problem is that psychologically a rate cut would likely not help much at this juncture. More...
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FX Blog - EUR/USD Freefall Challenges Key Levels
Global-View.com Friday October 24, 2008 - 09:34:26 GMT
Not only did I take a double take but a triple and than quadruple take when I walked in and looked at the screen. After yesterday's close, it looked like the market might take a pre-weekend breather but liquidating markets are rarely logical More...
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EURUSD At Support
Forex Hound Friday October 24, 2008 - 08:49:24 GMT
Yesterday's triangle on EURUSD played nicely, after the pair retested one more time the support zone it moved slowly higher and got very close to the 1.3000 resistance. In today's Asian session we're seeing EURUSD approaching once again the base at 1.2730 More...
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FX Blog - EUR/USD Update
Global-View.com Thursday October 23, 2008 - 22:54:47 GMT
EUR/USD setup for 1.30 happened quicker than expected. Now, 1.2940 needs to hold to keep the risk on 1.30, local support is below there at 1.2885-05. Maybe the market finally takes a breather but have to get through EZ data. More...
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Forex Research - US Dollar: Stabilization?
Global Forex Trading Thursday October 23, 2008 - 21:39:00 GMT
In the face of today’s 200 point positive and negative swings in the Dow, it could be argued that the US dollar has been relatively stable if you only look at the daily change of the 3 major currency pairs. More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dollar climbs two-year peaks but ends lower
Reuters Thursday October 23, 2008 - 21:03:34 GMT
The dollar was lower on Thursday, after earlier climbing to a fresh two-year high against the euro and a basket of currencies, after aggressive dollar selling by Brazil's central bank helped lend some stability to emerging market currencies, analysts said More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 24, 2008
Global-View Thursday October 23, 2008 - 20:07:51 GMT
Pretty much as expected, trading largely was cautious on Thursday. It appeared that the recent volatility in key USD pairs has sent many market participants to the sidelines. We suggested earlier that one has to wonder if the selling climax might be appro More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Thursday October 23, 2008 - 15:52:40 GMT
Anxiety regarding the impact of the crisis on emerging markets is driving currency trading. Today's concerns are focusing on the Baltic region, specifically on declining credit quality. But the dominant theme remains the slowing global economy, which is w More...
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FX Blog - EUR/USD Update
Global-View.com Thursday October 23, 2008 - 11:29:46 GMT
The move up just now hit a wall just below the intra-day high of 1.2861. This makes this level key intra-day resistance. More...
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EURUSD Triangle
Forex Hound Thursday October 23, 2008 - 10:20:49 GMT
After the big momentum drop we've seen in the last few days on EURUSD the pair has managed to find some support at 1.2730 More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 23, 2008
Global-View Thursday October 23, 2008 - 09:49:56 GMT
Trading appears to be off to a calmer start heading into N.Y. today. The Nikkei closed down sharply again today but it was well of its worst levels of the session. One has to wonder if the selling climax might be approaching its conclusion for equities. S More...
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Forex Research - Euro Whipsawed by Risk Flows as Volatility Remains High
Global Forex Trading Thursday October 23, 2008 - 09:21:57 GMT
Another wild and volatile ride in Asian trade today, as USD/JPY plummeted through the 9700 figure after Nikkei index dipped briefly below the 8000 level. However, Japanese equities ended the session a bit firmer only –2.5% for the day and pulled carry t More...
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Forex Blog - Dollar Continues to Rally: What is Behind the Move?
Global Forex Trading Wednesday October 22, 2008 - 21:27:09 GMT
Dollar bulls continue to take the markets by the horns, driving the British pound to a 5 year low and the Euro below 1.28. Deleveraging and risk aversion have been the primary catalysts for the strength in the low yielders (US dollar and Japanese Yen) but More...
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Forex Blog - By Any Means Necessary
Foreign Exchange Analytics Wednesday October 22, 2008 - 20:21:15 GMT
Lenin and Trotsky agreed on a strategy for the socialist revolution in Russia – by any means necessary. With developed capitalist economies running headstrong into nationalizing key industries starting but not ending with banking under the too big, too More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday October 22, 2008 - 19:21:58 GMT
USD Index was curiously quiet and range-bound in London/NY after brutal price action in Asia-Pacific trade Wed, even paying little attention to heavy losses on Wall Street. More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Wednesday October 22, 2008 - 16:40:27 GMT
Recession fears have definitively gone global, with shrinking guidance figures from corporations driving down equity indices in a negative feedback loop. European pairs are falling in relation to the JPY. More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/22/2008 - EUR/USD
FX Solutions Wednesday October 22, 2008 - 14:46:38 GMT
Drastically bearish price action within the last few days on the EUR/USD has continued the steep downtrend in the pair that has prevailed since the second peak of the long-term double top was reached More...
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An Attack on Friedman from the PC Crowd
Black Swan Capital Wednesday October 22, 2008 - 14:31:18 GMT
I received an email yesterday, from a very smart man who happens to be a professor of sciences in one our top institutions. He wrote: “Been stunned by the number of free market folks who squeal for interventions. I am appalled at the looting.” Free More...
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FX Blog - EUR/USD Chart Points:
Global-View.com Wednesday October 22, 2008 - 12:18:20 GMT
As noted yesterday, chart levels, unless major points, lose significance the farther you go out in time, which increases the significance of pivotal big figures. However, market has sliced through these (e.g. 1.30, 1.28) like Swiss cheese although 1.28 wa More...
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EURUSD Freefall
Forex Hound Wednesday October 22, 2008 - 10:23:12 GMT
EURUSD, along side the other majors has been trading USD strength and has covered over 500 points in the last 24 hours. The pair failed to trigger our inverted head and shoulders breaking through every support level in sight and pushing well beyong 1.3000 More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 22, 2008
Global-View Wednesday October 22, 2008 - 09:51:30 GMT
There is nothing more difficult than for leveraged traders to try to pick bottoms in a liquidating market. New lows often trigger fast liquidations. Hungary has moved into the cross-hairs of the hedge fund raiders now. There is also talk of counter-party More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dollar jumps to 2-yr high vs euro on risk unwind
Reuters Wednesday October 22, 2008 - 09:10:27 GMT
The dollar soared to a two-year high against the euro and a basket of currencies on Wednesday as a worsening global economic outlook prompted more investors to liquidate risky assets in favour of the U.S. currency. More...
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Forex Research - Dollar Rally Could be Short Lived
Global Forex Trading Tuesday October 21, 2008 - 21:48:52 GMT
With the exception of the Japanese Yen, the US dollar has rallied against every major currency. The settlement of the Lehman CDS auction, the new Money Market Investor Funding Facility, the drop in oil prices and the sell-off in equities have all contribu More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 22, 2008
Global-View Tuesday October 21, 2008 - 20:11:40 GMT
Tuesday markets in the U.S. had a risk aversion fell to them although there seemed to be no explicit focus. The USD responded positively to the Bernanke blessing of significant fiscal stimulus Monday. Markets reward the currencies of countries who act agg More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday October 21, 2008 - 19:23:33 GMT
Despite further easing in money markets (3mth USD LIBOR -22bp to 3.83%, lowest since 26 Sep), there was still plenty for US equity markets to worry about and expectations of USD repatriation to close trades, boosting USD ndex in London/NY. More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Tuesday October 21, 2008 - 16:11:38 GMT
In currencies, the greenback firmed to 19-month highs against the euro today as the pair tested below the 1.3150 level. Overall the USD continues to respond positively to Fed Chairman Bernanke's endorsement of a second fiscal stimulus package in Congressi More...
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New Zealand's Turn
Larry Greenberg Tuesday October 21, 2008 - 15:51:31 GMT
Markets look for a 100-bp cut, although a reduction of 75 basis points is possible at 20:00 GMT Wednesday. More...
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FX Blog - EUR/USD Chart Points
Global-View.com Tuesday October 21, 2008 - 10:35:01 GMT
The break of the recent 1.3260 low has seen 1.3200 approached (low 1.3209) as eur/usd trades to levels not seen since March 2007. More...
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USDCHF Pushed Above 1.1485
Forex Hound Tuesday October 21, 2008 - 09:52:16 GMT
USDCHF has moved strongly in yesterday's US session breaking above the double top we have marked on our charts at 1.1485 More...
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FX Research - Euro Hits a 19 Month Low As Fears of EZ Recession Grow
Global Forex Trading Tuesday October 21, 2008 - 09:50:14 GMT
No respite for weary euro bulls in early European trade tonight as the battered unit hit a 19 month low against the dollar amidst rising fears that the regions economy may be severely impacted by the recent turmoil in the credit markets. More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Monday October 20, 2008 - 16:46:29 GMT
In currencies, dealers were a bit perplexed by the FX price action during a session marked by considerable volatility. Some dealers noted that there is too much focus on equity correlation since the falling trend in three-month USD Libor fixing suggests d More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/20/2008 - USD/JPY
FX Solutions Monday October 20, 2008 - 15:21:22 GMT
Like several other currently consolidating pairs, the USD/JPY has recently been forming a significant triangle pattern consolidation More...
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Can you say Asian Financial Crisis Redo?
Black Swan Capital Monday October 20, 2008 - 13:38:55 GMT
Interesting! It seems the chances for another Asian-style financial crisis lingers and is rising (we are already seeing it in S. Korea; chart below). This is surprising since it appeared the entire region was well position to whether a downturn in the m More...
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GBPUSD October 20th
Forex Hound Monday October 20, 2008 - 10:06:52 GMT
GBPUSD has moved slowly higher along the support trendline on Friday and in early Asian trading hours this week; the triangle is intact and a break outside this pattern could be the signal we've been waiting for. More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 20, 2008
Global-View Monday October 20, 2008 - 09:41:40 GMT
Risk aversion (or the lack thereof) continues to be the dominant there for forex trading. This has been a relatively quiet weekend with only the Dutch Bank, Ing, getting a capital infusion from its government. Word is that LIBOR rates have continued to ea More...
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Forex Blog - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Sunday October 19, 2008 - 19:42:28 GMT
The late sell-off in US equities helped DXY produce a modest gain (about 0.5%) in London/NY Friday in uncertain, illiquid trade More...
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Forex Blog - The Focus On Stocks; Will It Last?
Global-View.com Saturday October 18, 2008 - 10:28:42 GMT
Do you ever feel like you are a yo-yo being bounced up and down on a string? This is what it felt like this past week trying to trade the forex market off of stocks. For those new to this business, you probably think the forex market always trades off sto More...
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Forex Blog - Volatility Played the FX Market as Dow Whipsaws Continue
Global Forex Trading Friday October 17, 2008 - 21:24:01 GMT
Dow trading today does not extinguish the prevalence of extremely large swings in equity prices. We have seen it for much of this month, and we are seeing it again today. After opening down more than 2.0%, the Dow rallies back, breaking the 9000 level, an More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Friday October 17, 2008 - 16:36:49 GMT
Slumping housing data and the lower-than-expected University of Michigan confidence data held back equity markets in early trading, but optimism has returned mid-morning as markets push back into positive territory. Libor has continued its incremental dec More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/17/2008 - AUD/USD
FX Solutions Friday October 17, 2008 - 15:56:51 GMT
Much like some other dollar-based pairs as of Friday (10/17/2008), price action on the AUD/USD daily chart, as shown, has formed a large inverted pennant/triangle formation More...
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Hodgepodge
Black Swan Capital Friday October 17, 2008 - 13:28:33 GMT
An L-shape recession is our guess
Global shift in consumer sentiment and an unknown quantity of toxic paper still buried make us believe any recession will be more L-shaped rather than V-shaped recession.
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Forex Blog - Why Traders Lose Money: Avoid a Common Pitfall
Global-View.com Friday October 17, 2008 - 13:23:13 GMT
I am writing this article because I am tired of seeing estimates that 80% (some have it as high as 90%) of retail traders in the forex market lose money. I have no idea what the proper percentage is for this estimate but I do know that some of it can be a More...
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FOREX NEWS-Yen gains, risk demand low as stocks trim gains
Reuters Friday October 17, 2008 - 11:43:52 GMT
The yen rose on Friday as stocks gave up much of their early gains, highlighting an ongoing slump in risk demand due to fears of a global recession, which is seen as inevitable as nations try to salvage their banking systems. More...
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GBPUSD Follow Up
Forex Hound Friday October 17, 2008 - 11:20:53 GMT
GBPUSD has formed a small 1-2-3 pattern just above the support trendline when the Slow Stochastic moved higher from the oversold zone, More...
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USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 17, 2008
global-view.com Friday October 17, 2008 - 09:42:27 GMT
Markets appear to be off to a quiet start today heading into the weekend. Prior end of week periods (late Thursday and Friday) had been seeing forced yearend liquidations by hedge fund managers, but that seems not to be the case today. The end of October More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dollar gains vs yen as U.S. stocks surge
Reuters Thursday October 16, 2008 - 21:09:05 GMT
The dollar had its best day against the yen in seven months in choppy trading on Thursday, boosted by sharp gains in U.S. stocks as risk aversion waned amid a stream of measures to help ease a global credit crisis.
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FX Blog - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday October 16, 2008 - 20:30:36 GMT
The lack of a firm lead from the DJIA left USD Index little changed in NY afternoon trade. The Dow had fallen >350pts early (hurt by the huge fall in US Sep industrial production) but recovered to flat to a touch weaker, taking many currency pairs with it More...
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FX Blog - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday October 16, 2008 - 20:30:36 GMT
The lack of a firm lead from the DJIA left USD Index little changed in NY afternoon trade. The Dow had fallen >350pts early (hurt by the huge fall in US Sep industrial production) but recovered to flat to a touch weaker, taking many currency pairs with it More...
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USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 17, 2008
Global-View Thursday October 16, 2008 - 19:56:44 GMT
The recent patten of the EUR/USD and USD/JPY trading in tandem continued again on Thursday. As long as the correlations work, forex markets are willing to go with the flow.
Earlier, following another tumble in U.S. shares Wednesday afternoon in the U.S. More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Thursday October 16, 2008 - 16:39:11 GMT
Equity markets are still desperately searching for something positive to hold onto as the painful process of pricing in recession goes on. Following a brief rally after the opening bell, indices quickly turned south again, jolting the VIX to fresh record More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/16/2008 - EUR/JPY
FX Solutions Thursday October 16, 2008 - 15:34:23 GMT
After dropping consistently and rapidly over the past two months with only one significant pullback, price action on the EUR/JPY daily chart, has just pulled back once again only a couple of days ago More...
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Forex Blog - Unintended Consequences
Foreign Exchange Analytics Thursday October 16, 2008 - 14:13:30 GMT
When policymakers wade, or more like dive, into private markets like they have in the last few days, there are sure to be unintended consequences that will at times raise doubts about the efficacy of the rescue. More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dollar up vs yen, recession concerns rise
Reuters Thursday October 16, 2008 - 12:17:18 GMT
The dollar rose against the yen on Thursday on falling share prices as the possibility that the banking sector may be salvaged did little to quell worries that the global economy is teetering on the verge of recession. More...
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USDCHF Double Top
Forex Hound Thursday October 16, 2008 - 10:03:52 GMT
The pair reached the previous high at 1.1490 and formed a double top on the 4 hour charts, the high is also a resistance level provided by the upsloping trendline we've mentioned in some previous posts. More...
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USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 16, 2008
Global-View Thursday October 16, 2008 - 09:48:06 GMT
Following another tumble in U.S shares Wednesday afternoon in the U.S., Asian bourses followed with sharp declines today. European indices are weaker at this hour. There was no clear catalyst for the decline on Wednesday. The day saw weaker than expected More...
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FOREX NEWS-US dollar, yen gain as risk appetite diminishes
Reuters Wednesday October 15, 2008 - 20:32:35 GMT
The dollar rose against the euro for the first time this week on Wednesday, while the yen gained on renewed concerns the U.S. government's $250 billion proposed injection into troubled banks may do little to heal a bruised financial sector. More...
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FX Research - Morning Report T
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday October 15, 2008 - 20:28:50 GMT
Safe haven or repatriation demand drove USD Index higher once more as the DJIA opened weaker and sank -500pts by the NY afternoon. Poor US data (retail sales, NY Fed manufacturing sentiment survey) helped fuel the selling of equities and risk FX. Fed chie More...
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USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 16, 2008
Global-View Wednesday October 15, 2008 - 19:42:11 GMT
The markets remain unsettled, although some modest improvements have been seen in the locked up LIBOR markets. Everybody is waiting for LIBOR lending to loosen up. It is said that banks are still waiting for rhe various bailout provisions to be IMPLEMENTE More...
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Spotlight Back on Growth Indicators
Larry Greenberg Wednesday October 15, 2008 - 16:58:07 GMT
Investor fear is now directed at the drumbeat of bad economic indicators that lies ahead. There are no good near-term scenarios.
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Chart of the Day - 10/15/2008 - GBP/USD
FX Solutions Wednesday October 15, 2008 - 16:05:19 GMT
Price action on the GBP/USD daily chart, as shown, has been making what could be considered an upside correction or retracement after hitting a 5-year low late last week More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Wednesday October 15, 2008 - 16:03:15 GMT
Risk aversion has returned in force today with European and North American equities exhibiting steep losses. In currencies the attention is turning to emerging market currencies as the wrath of the global credit crisis reverberates further and further bey More...
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The Die Seems Cast
Black Swan Capital Wednesday October 15, 2008 - 14:42:09 GMT
Recession dead ahead it seems. So it’s just a matter of waiting in the tall grass for the right time to sell the dollar, right? Well, we don’t think so.
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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 15-Oct-2008 - 1200 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday October 15, 2008 - 12:04:26 GMT
For now, it could face Resistance at 1.7620-35 and once above it, at 1.7725, which happens to be the 50% retracement of the fall from 1.8671 (25-Sep) to 1.6779 (10-Oct). The pair might not see...... More...
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FOREX NEWS-Euro, dollar slide vs yen, market wary of risk
Reuters Wednesday October 15, 2008 - 11:03:20 GMT
The euro and the dollar fell against a broadly stronger yen on Wednesday as euphoria from government plans to recapitalise hobbling banks ebbed and focus turned to how the bailouts would impact the global economy. More...
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Forex Blog - Dollar and Yen Firm Up as Risk Aversion Returns
Global Forex Trading Wednesday October 15, 2008 - 10:33:00 GMT
Global equity markets retrenched after two days of strong rallies, pulling high yielding currencies down with them as a touch of risk aversion returned to the foreign exchange market and both dollar and yen firmed. For the first time in more than a month More...
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Forex Blog - European Market Update
Trade the News Staff Wednesday October 15, 2008 - 10:30:55 GMT
In Currencies: The price action was mixed and choppy for the most part in Europe today as the focus remained on the performance of equity markets and sentiment regarding global growth. Softer equity markets for the most part are helping the JPY More...
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EURUSD Forming an Inverted Head&Shoulders
Forex Hound Wednesday October 15, 2008 - 10:03:28 GMT
The H&S pattern is clearly visible on the 4 hour chart below, the pair formed a lower low and found resistance at the 1.3775 area and now it should form the right shoulder, one could try to pinpoint the new low and start a long position but the classic wa More...
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USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 15, 2008
Global-View Wednesday October 15, 2008 - 09:40:45 GMT
The focus of forex trading remains on the performance of equity markets as the primary indicator of confidence in the global economy. The JPY is driven by stocks an so is the EUR/JPY. The EUR/USD is t More...
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Forex Blog - Death of Dogma...for now anyway
Foreign Exchange Analytics Tuesday October 14, 2008 - 21:37:44 GMT
In case you did not notice, the economic ideologues in the White House and Treasury hoisted the white flag of surrender on Austrian economics in the last week. More...
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USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 15, 2008
Global-View Tuesday October 14, 2008 - 19:42:15 GMT
The details of the U.S. bailout package today held no surprises as most had been leaked in advance. The focus once again was on the performance of the equity markets. The performance of U.S. equities were a disappointment as they seemed to have a “sell More...
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Is the dollar due for a correction?
Black Swan Capital Tuesday October 14, 2008 - 17:10:03 GMT
Of course we wouldn’t ask the question if we didn’t believe the chances are good. But, the major caveat is the same we’ve shared before—in a fundamentally-driven market (or major event-driven) the technical analysis takes a back seat. So, we do More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/14/2008 - EUR/USD
FX Solutions Tuesday October 14, 2008 - 15:22:47 GMT
Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has made an upside turn after having bottomed out at a one-year-plus low of around 1.3260 on Friday of last week. More...
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USDCHF October 14th Review
Forex Hound Tuesday October 14, 2008 - 09:58:32 GMT
USDCHF has traded above and below an upsloping trendline connecting higher lows and higher highs, and has found resistance/support atparallel trendlines thus trading inside a small bullish channel since the beginning of the month. More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 14, 2008
Global-View Tuesday October 14, 2008 - 09:44:10 GMT
The markets are awaiting details of the U.S. bailout package today before the opening of equity trading. President Bush is scheduled to speak at about 12:00 GMT and then Secretary Paulson will appear at 12:30 GMT with more specifics. Word is that the gove More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/13/2008 - USD/CHF
FX Solutions Monday October 13, 2008 - 15:15:08 GMT
Recent price action on the USD/CHF, a daily chart of which is shown, appears to have exhausted much of the upward momentum that has characterized this pair in the last several weeks More...
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Armageddon or opportunity???
Trade the News Staff Monday October 13, 2008 - 12:10:31 GMT
In currencies: The USD and carry-related pairs retraced some of their storng price movements seen last week on the bank of the UK and European bailout plans. EUR/USD back above the 1.36 handle while EUR/JPY probe the 137 area. EUR/CHF testing the 1.54 nei More...
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EURJPY Daily Charts - Potential Retracement
Forex Hound Monday October 13, 2008 - 09:10:12 GMT
EURJPY has been on an incredible strong down movement for the best part of the last couple of months, but we still have noticed what seems to look like a reversal pattern on the daily charts, considering the strength of the bearish movement we can only ex More...
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GBPUSD 23 Year Technical Study
Forex Hound Monday October 13, 2008 - 00:14:19 GMT
Aside from USDJPY, currency traders have kept the dollar bid for the most part since mid-July with no let up. More...
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Forex Blog - Where Do We Go From Here?
Thoughts from the Frontline Saturday October 11, 2008 - 09:46:29 GMT
I have been writing for almost a year that the next shoe to drop on US banks would be commercial construction lending. Today we look at some hard numbers. We look across the pond to sort out the problems in Europe. We look at the consequences of the losse More...
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FOREX NEWS-US dollar index touches 15-month high as G7 meets
Reuters Friday October 10, 2008 - 21:20:15 GMT
The U.S. dollar surged to a 15-month high against a basket of other major currencies on Friday as plunging stocks and persistently tight credit markets prompted investors to scramble for cash in the world's reserve currency. More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/10/2008 - USD/CAD
FX Solutions Friday October 10, 2008 - 17:00:15 GMT
Recent dramatic bullish moves on the USD/CAD, have shot price up past several key resistance zones, reaching all the way up to the major 1.1970-2.000 resistance region before finally backing off More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Friday October 10, 2008 - 16:40:21 GMT
The currency market was reduced to a sideshow during the New York morning as panic gripped markets, driven by the vicious cycle of continuing deleveraging, margin calls and declining fundamentals. More...
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Forex Blog - It Can be Done
Foreign Exchange Analytics Friday October 10, 2008 - 14:01:17 GMT
By any measure Paulson and Co have made two significant policy mistakes in confronting the banking and soon to be economic crises. Paulson let Lehman fall putting a premium on moral hazard and underestimating the interconnectedness of this investment ban More...
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Will our hero engender a bounce?
Black Swan Capital Friday October 10, 2008 - 13:51:31 GMT
I guess that little coordinated interest rate cut thing didn’t do the trick.
But don’t despair citizens. Right now he’s strapping on his cape to prepare for yet another episode of “The US Treasury Saves the World” news conference to explai More...
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USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 10, 2008
Global-View Friday October 10, 2008 - 09:44:31 GMT
At one point, eliminating counter-party risk for financial institutions might have gone a long way to putting an end to the current financial crisis, but one has to wonder how much more damage has been done to the global economy over the past week by G7 a More...
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USDCHF Triangle
Forex Hound Friday October 10, 2008 - 09:17:35 GMT
USDCHf has reached the support zone at 1.1225/50 and we have already seen the pair bounce a couple of times failing to punch through More...
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Forex Research - Dow Breaks 9k, Where Are the Losses in Currencies
Global Forex Trading Friday October 10, 2008 - 00:25:52 GMT
Another day, another plan from the US government that has failed to impress the markets. This morning, the Treasury said that they will be injecting capital directly into banks by taking an equity stake. In theory this announcement should give banks the p More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 10, 2008
Global-View Thursday October 9, 2008 - 20:14:08 GMT
The upcoming weekend will be a long one for many U.S. markets. Equities will be open on Monday. It appears that those long shares just don’t want to take their chances on a disappointing G7 outcome. U.S. shares have tumbled again. Many are hoping for so More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/09/2008 - EUR/USD
FX Solutions Thursday October 9, 2008 - 15:18:25 GMT
Within the past few days, a tight consolidation on the EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has formed a rough inverted flag pattern More...
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Can it be that simple?
Black Swan Capital Thursday October 9, 2008 - 12:47:30 GMT
As the stock market goes, so goes the euro against the US dollar. Can it be that simple? Short answer is yes. Risk aversion right now is dollar positive... More...
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EURUSD Triangle Play
Forex Hound Thursday October 9, 2008 - 10:37:58 GMT
EurUSd has formed a perfect triangle on the 4hours charts over the last couple of days, clearly marking the 1.3740 resistance level and a series of higher lows. More...
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USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 9, 2008 :
Global-View Thursday October 9, 2008 - 10:03:14 GMT
There is talk now that the U.S. government is now considering taking an equity stake in U.S. banks to support the financial system. This power was provided in the bailout program. One problem is that markets are becoming impatient with the bailout program More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday October 8, 2008 - 20:57:51 GMT
lobal central banks coordinate policy and ease by 50bp. The world’s major central banks took a historic step today, easing benchmark rates by 50bp in a coordinated announcement at the start of US trading. More...
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USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 9, 2008
Global-View Wednesday October 8, 2008 - 19:50:08 GMT
Wednesday started out with a meltdown in global equity markets before the U.S. open. The meltdown had followed the sharp sell-off in U.S. equities on Tuesday. The Nikkei tumbled by over 9% and other Asian bourses fell sharply in value. European bourses we More...
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Forex Blog - Leaving the Bunker Â
Global-View.com Wednesday October 8, 2008 - 19:49:44 GMT
I am starting to think we are close to the end of the banking crisis or as I like to think it will be referred to in history, the end of the Bank Panic of 2008. More...
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Central Banks Get Out The Butcher’s Knives
Black Swan Capital Wednesday October 8, 2008 - 15:48:05 GMT
The Federal Reserve cut their benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points today.
And so did the European Central Bank ...
And so did the Swedish Riksbank ...
And so did the Bank of England ...
And so did the Bank of Canada …
More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/08/2008 - USD/JPY
FX Solutions Wednesday October 8, 2008 - 15:36:54 GMT
It is no secret that the yen has strengthened dramatically in the last few days, as shown on the accompanying USD/JPY daily chart More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Wednesday October 8, 2008 - 15:33:01 GMT
The price action in currencies, fixed income and equities match the historic central bank move. EUR/USD was trading in the mid-1.36 area as the European close approached. The focus has been all about the carry-related pairs after the extreme moves witness More...
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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 08-Oct-2008 -1210 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Wednesday October 8, 2008 - 12:15:53 GMT
As feared, Dollar-Swiss dipped in the day to a low near 1.13. It has come off from a high near 1.1490. The 1.1295-80 region is an important Support. If that breaks, a further fall towards ....... More...
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USDCHF Still Bearish
Forex Hound Wednesday October 8, 2008 - 11:06:12 GMT
After reaching our target at 1.1350 the pair is now testing a resistance level formed by lower lows around the 1.3575/80 area that turned the last 24 hours price action into a triangle. More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 8, 2008
Global-View Wednesday October 8, 2008 - 09:55:21 GMT
The meltdown in equity markets following the sharp sell-off in U.S. equities is the major focus of the day. The Nikkei tumbled by over 9% and other Asian bourses have tumbled in value. Some say that South Korea could be the next Iceland. More...
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FX Blog - USD/YEN and EUR/USD Update
Global-View.com Wednesday October 8, 2008 - 09:43:58 GMT
It is all about the yen today as a meltdown in the Nikkei and resulting repatriation flows has sent it higher across-the-board, with offsets especially hitting the AUD and NZD. This has seen usd/yen fall below the pivotal 100 level. More...
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Forex Blog - US Dollar: What is the Fed Waiting For?
Global Forex Trading Tuesday October 7, 2008 - 22:12:39 GMT
Before the US stock markets opened this morning, the Federal Reserve announced a plan to buy commercial paper directly from issuers in yet another attempt to unfreeze the credit markets. Although this led to a rally in US stocks, USD/JPY and other carry t More...
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FX Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday October 7, 2008 - 20:50:56 GMT
Fed comments hit USD. Markets were quick to pounce on comments from Fed Governor Bernanke that the “outlook to economic growth has worsened” and that Fed will “need to consider whether the current stance of policy remains appropriate.” More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 8, 2008
Global-View Tuesday October 7, 2008 - 19:42:00 GMT
Fed Chairman Bernanke has to be wondering what he has to do next. Equities are closing sharply lower after he signaled a Fed rate cut at its next meeting at the end of this month.
Word late Monday that the Fed has decided to take actions to support the More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/07/2008 - AUD/USD
FX Solutions Tuesday October 7, 2008 - 17:00:12 GMT
After having plunged over 700 pips within a single 24-hour period, price action on the AUD/USD daily chart, as shown, has currently begun consolidating within a limited range More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Tuesday October 7, 2008 - 16:02:23 GMT
In currencies, the carry-related pairs focused their attention on the US and European financial fronts. The Fed's effort to address the lock-up in the giant commercial paper market, which has become a key bottleneck in the credit crisis, received an initi More...
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Time to look in the other direction—at least for short-term bounce?
Black Swan Capital Tuesday October 7, 2008 - 13:55:39 GMT
We saw a significant degree of real and psychological capitulation yesterday in favor of the dollar. The driver for the buck continues to be risk (money back to the center to hide, we see it in the bond prices and soaring labor yield), global growth scre More...
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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 07-Oct-2008 -1155 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Tuesday October 7, 2008 - 11:58:29 GMT
Cable has once again dipped to a low of 1.7320 during the day after facing Resistance at 1.7600-50. 1.7320, the low today, is also where it had found Support earlier and could now lead to a rise .... More...
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FX Blog - EUR/USD Update
Global-View.com Tuesday October 7, 2008 - 10:24:18 GMT
Has so far traded an inside day after 7 consecutive days of lower lows/lower highs. This suggests more of a two-way flow today as the market takes a breather. However, market will need to see higher lows/higher highs to suggest a pause. More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 7, 2008
Global-View Tuesday October 7, 2008 - 10:05:43 GMT
Word late yesterday that the Fed is with the Treasury to develop a support for unsecured lending has helped the tone of the markets. Even prime credits are said not to have full access to the commercial Paper markets at the moment due to excess investor c More...
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FOREX NEWS-Euro recovers, c.banks eyed after RBA rate cut
Reuters Tuesday October 7, 2008 - 08:49:01 GMT
The euro rose on Tuesday on growing speculation that some central banks may follow a surprisingly big interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia and lower their own rates to stem economic deterioration. More...
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USDCHF Possible Short
Forex Hound Tuesday October 7, 2008 - 08:48:53 GMT
USDCHF has pushed through the previous resistance levels and has topped around the 1.1485 area, the pair broke under the support trendline and the scenario looks almoust identical to what we had last week: after a quick move higher the pair breaking suppo More...
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Forex Research - Panic Selling in Forex Begs Coordinated Easing
Global Forex Trading Monday October 6, 2008 - 22:35:33 GMT
It has been an extremely volatile day in the currency markets with big figures (100 pip) moves in USD/JPY happening in a blink of an eye. The more than 4 percent decline in USD/JPY is the largest single day percentage drop in close to 10 years. More...
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FX Blog - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday October 6, 2008 - 21:18:48 GMT
Panic continued to grip global markets in London/NY trade, with cash hoarding and attempts to preserve capital proving positive for USD Index as it punched to new highs dating to Aug07. More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dollar, yen soar as anxiety over crisis mounts
Reuters Monday October 6, 2008 - 21:11:21 GMT
The U.S. dollar scaled a fresh 13-month peak versus the euro on Monday, while the yen surged broadly as investors dumped risky assets amid anxiety over the lack of a coordinated global response to the credit crisis. More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Monday October 6, 2008 - 16:24:51 GMT
In currencies the session was defined by record high levels of volatility and bewilderment. One dealer noted that the action was simply “the revenge of the carry trade.” More...
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FOREX NEWS-Battered euro sinks, yen soars as crisis bites
Reuters Monday October 6, 2008 - 11:34:24 GMT
The euro was pummelled against major currencies on Monday as concerns for European financial sector health increased without signs of a coordinated policy response, while the yen spiked as investors cut risk exposure. More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 6, 2008
Global-View Monday October 6, 2008 - 10:01:23 GMT
With Europe the focal point, the U.S. financial bailout plan is on the back burner already. Dealers will be looking in coming days for the details of the U.S. program.
the focal point for trade early Monday has been on equity markets. Asian bourses tumb More...
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Euro Crosses Trading Outlook: Europe Mid-session for October 6, 2008
Global-View Monday October 6, 2008 - 09:33:39 GMT
Deleveraging is the name of the game today with Europe the focal point today. EUR investments financed in JPY and USD The EUR have the borrowers rushing for the door to buy back their funding currencies. This is still a liquidating market. This kind of a More...
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USDCHF Testing The 1.1400 resistance
Forex Hound Monday October 6, 2008 - 08:48:14 GMT
USDCHF has already tested the resistance area around 1.1400 on Thursday and Friday but failed to push through, now we are looking at a perhaps third attempt to print a new high and close above. More...
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Forex Blog - The Curve in the Road
Thoughts from the Frontline Sunday October 5, 2008 - 11:17:23 GMT
The "Bailout Plan" was passed. Will it work? The answer depends on what your definition of "work" is. If by work you mean no more government intervention and no further costly programs and a functioning market, then the answer is no. But there are things More...
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FX Blog - Weekend Thoughts
Global-View.com Saturday October 4, 2008 - 17:15:27 GMT
I think we are in the end game on the liquidity squeeze, even if it is a drawn out game. The Treasury and Fed are throwing the kitchen sink at the market. The Fed can now pay interest on bank reserves so no need for banks to hoard cash, and will allow the More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/03/2008 - USD/CHF
FX Solutions Friday October 3, 2008 - 16:20:22 GMT
Price action on the USD/CHF daily chart, as shown, has just hit resistance at the level of the last major swing high, before retreating back down More...
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Hodgepodge
Black Swan Capital Friday October 3, 2008 - 13:14:49 GMT
Unemployment Rate and Dollar Cycles
In the chart below, we have overlaid the dollar bull and bear cycles on top of the unemployment rate. And given the last two cycles in the dollar i.e. bull from August 1991 to July 2001 and bear cycle from July 2001 t More...
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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 03-Oct-2008 -1235 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day Friday October 3, 2008 - 12:40:57 GMT
The point that troubles us is that several rules are being changed in order to accomodate this plan - one such rule is the "mark to market" rule. Whether the "mark to market" rule has merit ..... More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dlr pauses rally; spotlight on US bailout, jobs
Reuters Friday October 3, 2008 - 11:47:07 GMT
The dollar eased from the previous session's searing rally on Friday, but was poised for its best weekly gain versus the euro in the single currency's lifetime after the European Central Bank opened the door to rate cuts. More...
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Forex Blog - Euro Tries to Find a Bottom As Market Eyes NFPs
Global Forex Trading Friday October 3, 2008 - 10:48:10 GMT
After another sharp decline in yesterday’s North American session that pushed it to new yearly lows, the EUR/USD spent a quiet night of consolidation trying to hold the 1.3800 level as traders prepared for the release of NFPs and the possible passage of More...
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USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 3, 2008
Global-View Friday October 3, 2008 - 09:49:22 GMT
A major data point in a short while will be the release of the U.S. September employment report. The tipping point for traders would appear to be on which side of a decline of 100K in jobs the number breaks. More...
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GBPUSD Channel Breakout
Forex Hound Friday October 3, 2008 - 08:56:08 GMT
GBPUSD has pierced through the bearish channel we pointed out yesterday and if this scenario is to come to fruition the pair is starting a new swing movement, first potential target is the 1.8000 area More...
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Forex Blog - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday October 2, 2008 - 20:48:37 GMT
Risky assets were hit hard again overnight, as traders digested more bad economic news and credit markets remained under lockdown. The US bailout package remains a key risk for markets – while the US Senate voted in favour of the package yesterday, ther More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 3, 2008
Global-View Thursday October 2, 2008 - 19:57:41 GMT
The key focus for Friday will be House vote on the U.S. financial bailout program now scheduled for 10:00 EDT (14:00 GMT). Odds are that time will slip. The Congress rarely does anything on time. The bailout bill passed comfortably in the Senate late Wedn More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/02/2008 - EUR/USD
FX Solutions Thursday October 2, 2008 - 16:34:38 GMT
Extremely bearish price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, has plunged a total of more than 1000 pips since the latest bear run began on September 23 More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Thursday October 2, 2008 - 16:24:19 GMT
In currencies, the euro violated key technical levels in numerous currency pairs after the ECB danced around the topic of a potential interest rate cut, with dealers noting that the central bank has withheld "keywords" that would prepare the market for a More...
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ECB Policy Still Standing Still, Euro Losing Its Footing ...
Black Swan Capital Thursday October 2, 2008 - 15:03:35 GMT
I guess the European Central Bank is tired.
After pumping tens of billions of euros and dollars into its financial system over just the last two weeks, the ECB couldn’t muster up enough energy to cut rates today.
More...
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USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 2, 2008
Global-View Thursday October 2, 2008 - 09:52:34 GMT
The U.S. financial bailout program passed comfortably in the Senate late Wednesday by a vote of 74 to 25. There was never much doubt that it would pass in that chamber. The focus is now back on the House, where the bill will be considered there on Friday. More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dlr rides higher on Senate vote, ECB in spotlight
Reuters Thursday October 2, 2008 - 09:52:03 GMT
The dollar neared a one-year high versus a basket of major currencies on Thursday after the U.S. Senate passed a $700 billion bank bailout plan, while the euro slid ahead of the European Central Bank's verdict on rates. More...
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GBPUSD Channel Trading
Forex Hound Thursday October 2, 2008 - 08:40:34 GMT
Looking at the chart below we can see how interestingly GBPUSD has been trading for the past 5-6 weeks, every swing move has been confined in an nicely defined channel. More...
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Forex Blog - Will the US Dollar Continue to Rise?
Global Forex Trading Wednesday October 1, 2008 - 22:55:23 GMT
Hold your breath as trading could become very interesting over the next 24 hours. Compared to the price action in the beginning week, currencies have been relatively tame today as they wait for the Senate’s vote on the revived bailout plan this evening. More...
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Forex Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday October 1, 2008 - 20:02:30 GMT
Global markets were volatile but without any real direction overnight, as they awaited progress on the revised US bailout package. The package is expected to be passed by the Senate when they vote later today, but it was the House of Representatives – d More...
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USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 2, 2008
Global-View Wednesday October 1, 2008 - 19:09:08 GMT
The markets Wednesday waited all day for the Senate vote on the U.S. financial bailout plan. While the outcome of the Senate vote is not thought to be in doubt, presumably the bill will be a plan that the House can accept. The House cannot vote on the pka More...
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Chart of the Day - 10/01/2008 - NZD/USD
FX Solutions Wednesday October 1, 2008 - 17:15:32 GMT
Price action on the NZD/USD daily chart, as shown, has bounced up off of a significant downtrend line in what appears to be a pullback move More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Wednesday October 1, 2008 - 16:11:57 GMT
The dollar maintained a firm tone as markets enter the final quarter of the calendar year, particularly against the euro and pound. Dealers were noting that Russia reportedly sold over €5B in euros in today's session. More...
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FX Blog- GVI Weekly Interest Rate Forecasts 1 October 2008
Global-View Wednesday October 1, 2008 - 14:58:03 GMT
There is no doubt that monetary policy globally is being driven by fear and the need to secure liquidity. Inflation targeting and the promotion of growth have been taking a back seat to efforts to keep the international financial system afloat. More...
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Strong dollar, simple logic… We think!
Black Swan Capital Wednesday October 1, 2008 - 14:23:43 GMT
We are guessing the “momentous historical development” that launches the US dollar into a new multi-year bull trend was the credit crunch. It is a game changer on risk appetite and correlation of every asset class (but the dollar) going up at the sam More...
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USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for October 1, 2008
Global-View Wednesday October 1, 2008 - 10:03:13 GMT
The markets Tuesday focused on scarce USD liquidity on quarterend. There was talk of heavy hedge fund redemptions over the session as many funds only have a small window periodically to move out of these investments. This rush to the door was said to have More...
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USDCHF Trading Higher
Forex Hound Wednesday October 1, 2008 - 09:07:18 GMT
USDCHF pushed higher on Tuesday reaching the 1.1250 resistance area and not showing the bearish signs we were expecting from a technical point of view. More...
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Forex Blog - Quarter End Flows Drives US Dollar Higher
Global Forex Trading Wednesday October 1, 2008 - 00:13:16 GMT
It is the end of the third quarter and demand for US dollars has been exceptionally strong. This is related to repatriation flows and profit taking following yesterday’s big moves. The stock market closed up 485 points, which is approximately 60 percent More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for October 1, 2008
Global-View Tuesday September 30, 2008 - 19:32:02 GMT
Markets Tuesday focused on scarce USD liquidity one day after the U.S. House voted down the $700bln financial bailout package. Various central banks, including the Fed, took aggressive steps over the session to inject USD liquidity into the money market. More...
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Economy and the Bailout Plan: Down, but Not Out!
Black Swan Capital Tuesday September 30, 2008 - 17:05:02 GMT
Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the day down 777 points! Needless to say that’s going to get your attention when you flip on your local news and the anchors are attributing it to a House funding bill, vital in avoiding a financial melt More...
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Chart of the Day - 9/30/2008 - GBP/USD
FX Solutions Tuesday September 30, 2008 - 15:19:39 GMT
Price action on the key GBP/USD pair (a daily chart of which is shown) has been in strong bearish mode since the beginning of the week as the dollar has strengthened across the board More...
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Forex Blog - Dollar Steady as Markets Ask What Next? 9/30
Global Forex Trading Tuesday September 30, 2008 - 11:13:15 GMT
Currency markets remained steady in the aftermath of yesterday’s failure to pass the US Treasury rescue package by US House of Representatives. Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the reaction to the news was the general absence of panic in global equ More...
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USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for September 30, 2008
Global-View Tuesday September 30, 2008 - 09:50:44 GMT
The markets seem relatively calm the day after the U.S. House voted down the $700bln U.S. financial bailout package. Many assume now that the House Republicans (minority) have made their statement, they will pass something similar late this week or early More...
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USDCHF September 30th- Bearish Outlook
Forex Hound Tuesday September 30, 2008 - 09:26:01 GMT
USDCHF has slowly moved higher retesting the trendline it broke on September 22 when we had a big bearish move; with all this volatility in just about all capital markets around the globe USDCHF respected a down sloping trendline connecting the year's hig More...
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Forex Blog - House Kills the Bailout Plan and the US Dollar
Global Forex Trading Monday September 29, 2008 - 21:18:46 GMT
The rejection of the $700B bailout plan by the House of Representatives came completely out of the left field, driving a knife through both US equities and the US dollar. For the Bush Administration, it certainly feels like they are moving one step forwar More...
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Forex Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday September 29, 2008 - 20:30:40 GMT
Events conspired to create one of the tumultuous days in financial markets for a long time. European markets opened weak as UK bank Bradford & Bingley was nationalised and Fortis received a bailout from the Benelux governments. More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Monday September 29, 2008 - 15:42:46 GMT
In currencies the global liquidity crisis remained the dominant theme, with USD, JPY and CHF seeing significant moves in a trading session defined by heightened stress, thanks to the European bailouts, US development central bank liquidity operations. More...
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Gotta Love that Buck!
Black Swan Capital Monday September 29, 2008 - 15:20:38 GMT
We should have known. It seems to happen each time we are near some type of extreme in sentiment—we receive very strident email telling us we are wrong More...
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Chart of the Day - 9/29/2008 - USD/JPY
FX Solutions Monday September 29, 2008 - 15:12:37 GMT
Price action on the USD/JPY daily chart, as shown, has just reached up to a key downtrend line, and then subsequently bounced down considerably off this line, respecting its resistance once again More...
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Forex Blog - Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008?
Foreign Exchange Analytics Monday September 29, 2008 - 14:38:01 GMT
Capital markets are in lock down…very little trading is happening in any financial instrument or currency. Banks have reduced trading to non-leveraged real money accounts, corporates and prime broker accounts. More...
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FX Blog - EUR/USD Chart Points:
Global-View.com Monday September 29, 2008 - 11:01:51 GMT
I wrote this last night: The question is this enough to take the focus off the US financial system? If so, then will it shift to economic data and interest rates or to Europe (and UK), which is not only feeling the economic strain but the financial contag More...
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Forex Blog - Dollar Rallies Big as Banking Troubles Hit Europe and UK
Global Forex Trading Monday September 29, 2008 - 10:13:31 GMT
Dollar started the week off with a bang as financial crisis spread to Europe with Benelux based Fortis bank receiving an $11 Billion euro injection from Belgium, Dutch and Luxemburg governments in return for 49% stake in the company. Meanwhile in UK More...
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USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for September 29, 2008
Global-View Monday September 29, 2008 - 09:49:54 GMT
U.S. House Republicans are expected to vote today on the $700bln U.S. financial bailout package today before noontime omn the east coast. The Senate is expected to vote later in the week (Wednesday?). President Bush is scheduled to comment on the deal at More...
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FX Blog- Forex Forecast of Major Currency Pairs
Global-View Sunday September 28, 2008 - 21:57:30 GMT
Conditions in the credit markets continue to deteriorate. As of this writing, we are still waiting for final word on whether the $700bln bailout of the U.S. financial system will be passed. Odds are something will be. The key question is whether the event More...
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Forex Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Sunday September 28, 2008 - 19:36:14 GMT
USD Index was whippy in London/NY and finally little changed as markets watched ongoing inconclusive headlines about the financial rescue package. The S&P 500 rose a modest 0.3%, the DJIA +1.1%. More...
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Forex Blog - Who's Afraid of a Big, Bad Bailout
Thoughts from the Frontline Saturday September 27, 2008 - 11:08:31 GMT
Flying last Tuesday, overnight from Cape Town in South Africa to London, I read in the Financial Times that Republican Congressman Joe Barton of Texas was quoted as saying (this is from memory, so it is not exact) that he had difficulty voting for a bailo More...
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Forex Blog - Dollar's Fate Dependent Upon TARP Bailout Drama
Global Forex Trading Saturday September 27, 2008 - 02:24:37 GMT
It will be another long weekend for the US Treasury Secretary and the heavy hitters in Washington. September has certainly been a sleepless month for Paulson, as Fannie and Freddie was followed by Lehman Brothers and AIG and then the initial $700B proposa More...
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Foreign Exchange Insights
Larry Greenberg Friday September 26, 2008 - 18:48:43 GMT
The dollar performed better this past week in the market than in the press. How come? More...
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Chart of the Day - 9/26/2008 - GBP/USD
FX Solutions Friday September 26, 2008 - 15:51:33 GMT
Price action on the 4-Hour GBP/USD chart, as shown, is currently languishing in somewhat of a sideways consolidation, much like other major currency pairs More...
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A recessionary world isn’t good for Comdols…
Black Swan Capital Friday September 26, 2008 - 13:54:05 GMT
Recession by definition means demand for all kinds of stuff falls. And if demand for stuff falls, the demand by business for raw materials to make said stuff should naturally fall— More...
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Forex Blog - End of the world as we know it, and I don't feel fine...
Foreign Exchange Analytics Friday September 26, 2008 - 13:40:16 GMT
I don’t know where to begin. I thought I could believe the leaders of both parties in Congress and the White House and the Treasury that there was an agreement with bipartisan backing for the Paulson plan or TARP (troubled asset repurchase program). More...
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FX Blog - EUR/USD Chart Points
Global-View.com Friday September 26, 2008 - 11:08:23 GMT
Risk aversion taking over to end the week and this has seen carry trades dominate, led by a surge in the yen and a lesser extent the chf. Offsets have weighed on other pairs, including the eur/usd, which has tested its downside again but still remains abo More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for September 26, 2008
Global-View Friday September 26, 2008 - 09:58:46 GMT
U.S. House Republicans are being accused by Democrats of stalling the agreement on U.S. financial bailout package to help the presidential campaign of John McCain. If true, this tactic could backfire on financial markets, the economy and his campaign. Mea More...
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Forex Blog - Dollar Rallies as Agreement is Reached on Bailout Plan
Global Forex Trading Thursday September 25, 2008 - 22:28:00 GMT
The currency market never responds favorably to uncertainty and when a plan is in place and there is hope, relief is expected. This is exactly what we saw in the stock market and the US dollar today, as they both rallied on the announcement of a tentative More...
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Forex Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday September 25, 2008 - 21:05:51 GMT
The sharp equity rally on optimism over a deal on the bailout package by Monday helped USD post moderate gains despite dismal US economic data. Lawmakers left a bipartisan meeting offering no details but confident that they had a plan that would pass Hous More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for September 26, 2008
Global-View Thursday September 25, 2008 - 19:37:19 GMT
The focus on Thursday was on the U.S. financial bailout program that has just about worked its way through Congress. It now appears to be a done deal. The strongest reaction has been in equty markets, which have improved. The USD really does not know what More...
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Chart of the Day - 9/25/2008 - EUR/USD
FX Solutions Thursday September 25, 2008 - 16:35:37 GMT
Price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, is currently in somewhat of a consolidation mode, seemingly undecided as to the next directional push More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Thursday September 25, 2008 - 15:53:47 GMT
The USD was softer in early a NY whippy trading environment as rumors circulated regarding the bailout. The rumor mill was in full force, including one story making the rounds that a coordinated central bank rate cut would complement the passage of the ba More...
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How Will the Fear Factor Impact Markets?
Black Swan Capital Thursday September 25, 2008 - 14:45:01 GMT
Is it just me or does anyone else think that an impromptu Presidential Address should be designated for declaring war, explaining foreign matters or tending to personal Whitehouse affairs … if you know what I mean? More...
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FX Blog - EUR/USD Chart Points
Global-View.com Thursday September 25, 2008 - 10:26:05 GMT
Unlike yesterday at this time when there was an inside day, the eur/usd has traded an outside day already. This comes in a market that can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel over what we have been saying is an inevitable compromise and agreeme More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for September 25, 2008
Global-View Thursday September 25, 2008 - 09:39:09 GMT
The focus today is back on the U.S. fimancial bailout package. Odds are something will be passed before the weekend. Politicians have a strong incentive to get something done because they want to get home as soon as possible to for the Congressional break More...
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USDJPY Large Consolidation
Forex Hound Thursday September 25, 2008 - 09:23:59 GMT
USDJPY has beed trading inside a range for a couple fo weeks, the area is full of former support and resistance levels and lack of sway on either part of the Pacific didn't help much; we do keep an eye out for the support levels as we are trading close to More...
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Forex Blog - Credit Spreads Blown Out, Worse Than Last Thursday
Foreign Exchange Analytics Thursday September 25, 2008 - 01:19:07 GMT
With Congress and White House/Tsy teed up for a $700bln bank rescue package (trust me it is in the bag, all the hearings are for show back home) and Warren Buffet putting down $5bln on Goldman preferred, credit is blowing out today, worse than last Thursd More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for September 25, 2008
Global-View Wednesday September 24, 2008 - 19:28:54 GMT
The focus on Wednesday was back on bank liquidity as interbank lending about dried up again. Very simply, banks who have cash do not want to let it go for credit/liquidity reasons. All the while, testimony about the U.S. bailout program droned on for anot More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Wednesday September 24, 2008 - 15:41:39 GMT
Credit markets remain the overall focus in currencies as signs of renewed stresses in the system continue to highlight the insatiable demand for cash. LIBOR is once again taking center stage with the three-month USD fixing surging 27bps to 3.48% against T More...
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A little history: The way our financial system is and has to be …
Black Swan Capital Wednesday September 24, 2008 - 14:41:25 GMT
Jim Grant said a few months back in one of his Interest Rate Observer bi-weekly missives: “Humans are simply incapable of handling credit,” or something close to that. We have seen the deleterious impact of easy money before. And no matter the regul More...
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Chart of the Day - 9/24/2008 - AUD/USD
FX Solutions Wednesday September 24, 2008 - 14:21:28 GMT
Price action on the AUD/USD daily chart, as shown, has formed a pennant consolidation pattern that has followed immediately on the heels of a key downtrend resistance line breakout last week More...
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FX Blog - EUR/USD Chart Points
Global-View.com Wednesday September 24, 2008 - 11:48:54 GMT
EUR/USD so far trading an inside day with the failure to maintain 1.48+ cooling the recovery while the downside is protected while above 1.45. This leaves little in the way of key levels nearby so expect more choppy trading as the focus stays on More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for September 24, 2008
Global-View Wednesday September 24, 2008 - 09:50:11 GMT
The focus today will be on testimony about the U.S. bailout program once again. So far it seems that Secretary Paulson and Fed Chief Bernanke have not gotten through to members of Congress about the need to act. Opposition to the financial bailout program More...
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EURUSD In a Retracement
Forex Hound Wednesday September 24, 2008 - 09:16:11 GMT
After failing to push thorugh 1.4800 EURUSD has started to give back some of the gains it made in its spectacular move last week; the pair is trading just under the 1.4700 level and the first sign of support is at 1.4600 where we have the 61.8 Fibonacci L More...
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Forex Blog - Dollar Rally Driven Entirely By Oil
Global Forex Trading Tuesday September 23, 2008 - 21:31:42 GMT
The eyes of everyone from investment managers to stock and currency traders were glued to testimony of the 3 biggest players in the latest financial crisis. US Treasury Secretary Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and SEC Chairman Cox urged th More...
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Forex Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday September 23, 2008 - 20:59:49 GMT
Markets spent a good portion of the London/NY overlap watching Fed’s Bernanke and Treasury’s Paulson explain to sceptical politicians why it was essential their rescue plan is passed quickly with few changes. More...
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Forex Market News - Canadian dollar slides as greenback firms
Reuters Tuesday September 23, 2008 - 20:54:49 GMT
The Canadian dollar gave back some of its recent gains against a firmer U.S. dollar on Tuesday, after rising 3.4 percent versus its U.S. counterpart over the previous three sessions on uncertainty surrounding the bailout of the U.S. financial sector. More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for September 24, 2008
Global-View Tuesday September 23, 2008 - 19:26:46 GMT
The focus Tuesday was on testimony about the U.S. bailout program. Financial markets are still waiting for specific details of the U.S. financial markets bailout program. Testimony by Paulson, Bernanke and Cox on the issue did not satisfy Congress on the More...
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Chart of the Day - 9/23/2008 - USD/CAD
FX Solutions Tuesday September 23, 2008 - 18:12:18 GMT
Price action on USD/CAD (a 4-Hour chart of which is shown) has been approaching a confluence of support offered by two trendlines More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Tuesday September 23, 2008 - 16:29:59 GMT
The greenback exhibited choppy price action during the US morning, but maintained its overall price range from the Asian and early European sessions. The USD encountered a bit of turbulence in early trading after extended previews of Bernanke's testimony More...
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What Euroland's September PMI Readings Tell Us
Larry Greenberg Tuesday September 23, 2008 - 16:19:45 GMT
Ezone activity has contracted in each of the past four months in manufacturing and the even more important service sectors. Conditions worsened faster in September. More...
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Forex Blog - Don't Just Do Something Stand There!
Foreign Exchange Analytics Tuesday September 23, 2008 - 14:38:51 GMT
This is the new mantra of central banks…like deer in the headlights central bankers are frozen on rate policy stuck between elevated commodity prices and a banking crisis come recession risk this global economy has not faced since 1929 at the start of T More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for September 23, 2008
Global-View Tuesday September 23, 2008 - 09:53:39 GMT
the USD tumbled on Monday. Financial markets are still waiting for specific details of the U.S. financial markets bailout program. Today will see testimony by Paulson Bernanke and Cox on the issue. The preliminary market read is that it will wind up beari More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dollar claws up; US bailout concerns seen weighing
Reuters Tuesday September 23, 2008 - 09:35:04 GMT
The dollar clawed back ground against euro on Tuesday after suffering its biggest one-day loss since the single currency's inception, but worries about a $700 billion U.S. bank bailout package was seen limiting its rebound. More...
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GBPUSD September23rd Review
Forex Hound Tuesday September 23, 2008 - 09:03:52 GMT
The week started with significant USD weakness on all majors and that has pushed GBPUSD much higher than we expected, the pair is trading now close to the resistance trendline that marks a bullish channel. More...
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Forex Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Monday September 22, 2008 - 20:41:12 GMT
The puncturing of equity market optimism over the US financial rescue plan (DJIA -380pts late session) and discussion over the US credit rating saw USD sold across the board. While Moody’s and Fitch reaffirmed the US’s AAA rating, there was open scept More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Monday September 22, 2008 - 16:36:58 GMT
In currencies, the carry-related pairs moved higher as dealers watched risk aversion ease off thanks to the government's bailout of US financial sector. More...
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Chart of the Day - 9/22/2008 - USD/JPY
FX Solutions Monday September 22, 2008 - 16:14:19 GMT
As shown on the accompanying USD/JPY 4-Hour chart, price action has recently formed a relatively well-defined downtrend resistance line, with at least three or four touches thus far More...
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Dollar Weakness Inevitable "They" Say. Hmmm...?
Black Swan Capital Monday September 22, 2008 - 16:08:27 GMT
It seems the consensus argument is the US dollar MUST go lower given the nationalization of banking institutions and bailouts. But, that hasn’t necessarily been the historical reality. More...
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FX Blog - Key EUR/USD Levels
Global-View.com Monday September 22, 2008 - 10:51:36 GMT
On the downside, this is still a retracement but a case can be made that a bottom is in place. More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for September 22, 2008
Global-View Monday September 22, 2008 - 09:53:28 GMT
The financial markets still are waiting for the specific details of the Paulson financial markets bailout program. The preliminary reading in that it is likely to be bearish for the USD. The combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies is usually see More...
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GBPUSD September 22nd - Slowing Momentum
Forex Hound Monday September 22, 2008 - 08:55:43 GMT
GBPUSD jumped on Friday over 300 points from the 1.8000 support zone up to the 1.8400 level, the move came after we saw a good decline in the morning and came as a bit of a surprise for us. More...
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FX Blog - Betting on Financial Armageddon
Thoughts from the Frontline Saturday September 20, 2008 - 10:57:13 GMT
My Dad used to tell me there is no accounting for standards when looking at something that seemed odd. Today, we have faulty standards for accounting that are ripping apart the fabric of the world's More...
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FX Blog - US DOLLAR: WILL THE BI-POLAR MARKETS CONTINUE?
Global Forex Trading Saturday September 20, 2008 - 10:48:56 GMT
The volatility that we have seen in the currency, stock and bond markets this past week has not been for the faint of heart.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 500 points on Monday, but instead of continuing lower over the course of the week, it staged More...
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Forex Market News - Canadian dollar up over a cent as markets rally
Reuters Saturday September 20, 2008 - 10:42:26 GMT
The Canadian dollar rose to its highest point in three weeks against the U.S. dollar on Friday, gaining support from rallying commodity prices on the back of plans for a comprehensive package to sop up the toxic debt that has been clogging U.S. financial More...
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Forex Blog - US Market Update
Trade the News Staff Friday September 19, 2008 - 16:57:10 GMT
In currencies, dealers are noting a winding theme of risk aversion in the wake of the financial bailout plan and Fed's intention to buy GSE debt from primary dealers. Overall the dollar's tone has been mixed as it firms against the JPY, with the USD retre More...
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FX Briefing - Wall Street in state of emergency
BHF-Bank Friday September 19, 2008 - 16:51:45 GMT
The financial crisis has reached a new dimension this week: Lehman Brothers Holding had to file a petition under chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code; the collapse of the US insurer AIG was only averted by the Fed agreeing an $85bn bailout and the US gove More...
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Chart of the Day - 9/19/2008 - GBP/USD
FX Solutions Friday September 19, 2008 - 16:18:21 GMT
Price action on the long-term GBP/USD WEEKLY chart, as shown, is currently approaching a key level in its current upward correction More...
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GBPUSD Daily View September 19th
Forex Hound Friday September 19, 2008 - 09:55:23 GMT
GBPUSD has slowed down this month, compared to August, and traded top to bottom in a 600 point range; it retraced from the September 11th low More...
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FOREX NEWS-Dollar surges vs yen on U.S. asset plan
Reuters Friday September 19, 2008 - 09:49:59 GMT
The dollar rose nearly two percent against the yen on Friday, boosted by news that the U.S. government was considering a comprehensive plan to deal with the toxic bank assets at the heart of the financial market turmoil. More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: New York Open for September 19, 2008
Global-View Friday September 19, 2008 - 09:35:51 GMT
The financial markets have a lot to digest today as they try to assess the implications of the USD 500 bln bailout plan for the U.S. financial system. Presumably the program will improve the liquidity in the system, and give firms an opportunity to liquef More...
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FOREX NEWS-US dollar rallies against yen, off low vs euro
Reuters Thursday September 18, 2008 - 20:54:22 GMT
The U.S. dollar rose against the yen and recouped most losses against the euro on Thursday in a broad surge with U.S. stocks on reports Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is talking about a Resolution Trust Corp-type solution to the current financial crisis More...
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Forex Research - Morning Report
Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday September 18, 2008 - 20:42:10 GMT
The US dollar was volatile once more, rebounding from heavy selling in the London morning to be flat or a little higher in late NY, helped by a rebound on Wall Street. The DJIA rebounded from its worst 3 day decline in 10 years to rally >400pts in late tr More...
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for September 19, 2008
Global-View Thursday September 18, 2008 - 19:33:28 GMT
Word emerged Tgursday afternoon that Treasury Secretary Paulson is in discussions with Congress about some sort of Resolution Trist solution to the housing crisis. The news was taken initially as USD positive. Stocks rallied and flight to safety demand fo More...
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