The Canadian dollar closed slightly higher against the U.S. currency on Wednesday in subdued pre-holiday trading, ending a volatile year on an up note as market participants shifted their focus to More...
How Did the Dollar Trade in 2008? It has been an exceptionally active year in the foreign exchange market as currency volatilities hit record highs. More...
The U.S. dollar rose on Wednesday and posted its first yearly gain against a basket of currencies since 2005 as the worst financial crisis in 80 years led investors to take refuge in the greenback. More...
In Currencies: GBP/USD: Dealers note that GBP set for its worst annual performance since 1972 . The GBP/USD pair opened the 2008 calendar year at 1.9861 and is currently at 1.4460, a loss of 54 big figures or 27.2% against the USD|| The USD is poised for More...
The euro fell against the dollar on Wednesday and was poised to post its first annual fall versus the U.S. currency in three years as a historic financial crisis sparked a rush into the dollar this year. More...
The US dollar sold off modestly today on stronger European economic data and weaker US data. The dollar’s weakness was seen against every major currency except for the Canadian dollar which followed oil prices lower. More...
The euro was gaining ground in Asia on Wednesday as tumbling U.S. yields undermined the dollar, while a truly dire outlook for the UK economy kept sterling pinned near record lows. More...
The Canadian dollar closed down slightly against the U.S. currency on Tuesday as oil prices fell and thin order flows jerked exchange rates around.
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A couple of days before 2009, erratic price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, continues to waver in a sideways consolidation. This trading range has been in effect for the past week after More...
As noted during the European morning, for currency trade the fundamental rational has remained in the background as 'stop-hunts' have been the constant theme in currencies. More...
The dollar fell against the euro and a basket of currencies on Tuesday as traders closed out some positions before the year-end and ahead of data on the U.S. housing market and consumer confidence later in the day. More...
In Currencies: Price action was described best as 'whipsawed' over the last twenty-four hours as wide ranges characterized the illiquid market conditions associated with year-end. Dealers noting that fundamental rational remained in the background as 'sto More...
The Canadian dollar closed lower against the U.S. currency in volatile, holiday-thinned trading on Monday, unable to hold on to afternoon gains despite higher commodity prices and broad weakness in More...
Currency trade continues to focus around the GBP/related crosses. Dealers ponder sustainability of the upside momentum on the EUR/GBP cross as it tested 0.98 in today's session but with holiday-like liquidity issues the dealers agree that it is hard to 'f More...
Within the context of a continuing downtrend on the USD/JPY, price action approaching the New Year has made a pullback retracement back up near a key downtrend resistance line More...
The dollar fell broadly on Monday, eroded by a grim outlook for the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve pouring liquidity into a battered U.S. banking system. More...
The dollar fell against most major currencies on Wednesday as data on unemployment, spending and durable goods orders reinforced the bleak outlook for the U.S. economy in the year ahead.
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The Canadian dollar strengthened versus the U.S. currency on Wednesday, as thin market volumes forced the currency to ride the wave of corporate buyers and fund managers readjusting portfolios ahead More...
With US Treasury yields ending 2008 at 50-55 year lows, 1-month t-bills yielding 0.00%, the Fed embarking on quantitative easing (printing money) and the incoming administration planning a massive debt-financed fiscal stimulus, the “Bonds for Dummies” More...
The dollar fell against the yen and a basket of currencies on Wednesday as investors anticipated more grim U.S. economic data, although losses were limited as market players wound up positions early in thin holiday trade. More...
In Currencies: The USD was mixed during the pre-holiday trading environment. EUR/USD lingered just below the 1.40 handle. The CHF was again firm against the major pairs. Dealers noting that the CHF has gained as global recessionary fears and a negative ea More...
The Canadian dollar ended stronger versus the U.S. currency on Tuesday, ignoring weaker commodities prices as dealers focused on closing out yearend
portfolios in a thinly staffed market.
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The dollar drifted higher against the yen in thin pre-holiday trade on Tuesday, as investors continued to lock in profits on the Japanese currency's recent steep gains, cautious not to push the pair lower in case Japan intervenes. More...
The USD perversely benefited from weak economic data overnight. Grim US housing numbers and concern the auto industry may fail, even after the friendly Government loans, weighed on US equities which are down around 1% at 8:30am NZ time. US sentiment, in t More...
The Christmas Eve calendar is loaded with all the data that authorities could get out before the end of the year. The day is a holiday in several centers on the Continent and a half-day session in London. Most markets are closed on the day aftr Christmas. More...
The Christmas Eve calendar is loaded with all the data that authorities could get out before the end of the year. The day is a holiday in several centers on the Continent and a half-day session in London. Most markets are closed on the day aftr Christmas. More...
After plummeting more than 1800 pips since early December, price action on the USD/CHF corrected to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and then has dropped back down substantially within the past More...
The commodity currencies are trading mixed vs. the USD. The AUD and kiwi are weaker and the CAD is higher. The USD is mixed vs. the major European currencies. More...
The dollar edged lower against the euro and a basket of currencies in thin trade on Tuesday as worries mounted about the depth of the U.S. recession ahead of major U.S. economic data due later in the day. More...
With Japanese markets closed for Emperors birthday, currencies spent the night in quiet pre-holiday trade essentially marking time until dealing desks close tomorrow evening for the Christmas holiday. The euro made another run at the 1.4000 level booste More...
In Currencies: The unexpected downward revision in UK GDP helped push the GBP to session lows against the major pairs, but al in all it remained a quiet, range bound session. GBP/USD below the 1.48 More...
Today sees a slew of data from the U.S. revisions to 3Q08 GDP are awaited on the U.S. open, and then later the University of Michigan sentiment index and new and existing home sales. Home sales data are expected to remain weak. More...
It is the first trading day of what is typically the least liquid period in the financial markets. As a result, there was no consistent trading pattern in the US dollar today. The greenback weakened against the Euro but gained strength against the Britis More...
The Canadian dollar closed slightly higher versus the U.S. dollar on Monday, trimming early gains as oil prices declined, while light trading volumes led to wide swings as investors pushed through end More...
China cut its benchmark rates by 27bp and reserve requirements by 50bp, injecting a positive tone to metal markets. Gold and copper both gained around 1%. Risk-aversion, as measured by the VIX index, fell 2% to 44 (under 40 is neutral), although we note t More...
The U.S. dollar recovered some ground against the yen on Monday after sharp losses last week, boosted by data showing Japanese exports slumping and by a warning from the Bank of Japan that its economy has deteriorated and is likely to get worse. More...
The holiday markets appear to have arrived on Monday. However, just about all the data normally scheduled for the rest of the month has been compressed into Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday moring in the U.S. will see a slew of data releases. More...
Within the context of the remarkable bullish run of the past couple of weeks, price action on EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has retraced to a significant support/resistance level More...
The volatility has been humongous in currencies, you might have noticed. The huge run in the euro recently seems to have a lot of Johnny Come Lately dollar bulls changing their tunes, and now suggesting the dollar move is done. It’s time for the dolla More...
The commodity currencies are trading mixed vs. the USD. The AUD is about steady and the CAD is higher. The fiwi is weaker. Obviously there is no pattern. USD has started to recover vs. the major European currencies. More...
he USD maintained a steady tone during the NY morning as thin, holiday conditions are prevalent. With no scheduled data releases concern over the global economic situation remains front and center. More...
2008 has been a year full of tumultuous events for financial markets, with the failure of some of the brightest names in the banking sector and wholesale government rescues being mounted for most of the rest. Low financial market volatility, a feature of More...
The euro rose broadly in holiday thinned trade on Monday as a dim view of the U.S. economy kept the U.S. currency on the back foot, while the yen struggled in the wake of the latest Japanese interest rate cut. More...
Evidence of oncoming holidays was all around the currency market tonight, as trading slowed to a crawl and the economic calendar was essentially barren of any significant data. Nevertheless, the euro managed to stage a rebound rally pushing above 1.4000 o More...
In Currencies: Currency markets piecing together to potential impact of the U.S auto bailout and news of a supplementary budget in Japan. Dealers noting that risk appetite would remain a core driver More...
As Jay mentioned earlier, it all boils down to flows now with the Christmas holidays already at hand. The economic data calendar is working against traders as well with no major releases left today and most of the end of month data pushed forward to Tuesd More...
The Silly Season FX Solutions Monday December 22, 2008 - 04:27:22 GMT
The main news items for global markets were the US auto industry rescue package finally agreed by the US Government, and an expansion of credit stimulation facility by the Federal Reserve. US equities held their ground, but Europe was less buoyant, the FT More...
The Fed has taken interest rates to zero. They have clearly started a program of quantitative easing. What exactly does that mean? Are we all now Japanese? Is the Fed pushing on a string, as Japan has done for almost two decades? The quick answer is no, b More...
It has been an extremely volatile week in the currency market. On Monday, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.3364 and shortly after the European open on Thursday it hit a high above 1.47. However since then it has reversed violently to end the week back at 1. More...
The U.S. dollar jumped against the euro on Friday, posting its biggest daily gain in almost two months, after traders said the greenback's slump earlier this week may have been overdone. More...
With the Bank of Japan cutting the overnight lending rate to 0.1%, among other relevant announcements from the BOJ, an upward retracement in the long embattled USD/JPY pair could very well extend its More...
The dollar has continued to plummet. Last week, EUR-USD rose by about 5%, and this week, the European currency has climbed further, gaining almost 5% to around 1.40. It even reached a peak of 1.47 temporarily, but profit taking then set in. Most other cur More...
Sometimes we are a bit absurd in this morning missive in an attempt to make a point. Looking back at a recent issue, from the 2nd of December, titled "Can you say 1% Treasury Bond Yield?" we noticed the 30-year bond futures price has risen a bit since th More...
The EUR/USD extended its long-week of parabolic price performance while thin trading conditions are really boosting volatility. The EUR/USD cross began the week at 1.3350 and proceeded to climb above the 1.4700 level to test its 200-day moving average; ea More...
The euro fell broadly on Friday, as traders locked in profits from the currency's rally to a 2 1/2-month high against the dollar and its strongest level ever against sterling this week. More...
In Currencies: thinner conditions continue to give rise to fresh volatility. The USD continued its rebound from multi-month lows against the European pairs. The moved was underway after the ECB announced a reduction in its deposit rate and increase in mar More...
As we approach the holidays the currency market has taken on all the characteristics of Florida weather – just wait a minute and it changes. After completing a spectacular parabolic rise yesterday, the unit reversed course and produced an almost as im More...
The BOJ surprised us by thrown in the kitchen sink today. It lowered its overnight target rate by 20bps to virtually zero (0.10%) and announced other measures to improve the liquidity in the system. No doubt it was the recent surge in the JPY that pushed More...
After seeing the US dollar sell off for 5 straight days against the Euro and Japanese Yen, we were not entirely surprised to see today’s recovery, especially on the heels of better than expected economic data. More...
The Canadian dollar's three-daystreak of gains versus the U.S. dollar ended on Thursday as the
latest Canadian data supported calls for more Bank of Canada interest rate cuts and knocked the currenc More...
The U.S. dollar posted its biggest one-day rise against the yen in more than a month on Thursday as speculation mounted that the Japanese government may intervene to halt its currency's advance.
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The U.S. and global economies continue to worsen. Even though equity markets appear to be trying to find a bottom, there still are no indications in the economic data that weakening pattern has come to an end yet. On Thursday, weekly U.S. jobless claims m More...
Non-USD currencies corrected their 5-day rallies sharply last night, the likely catalyst being US data releases which were not quite as weak as expected. Global equities were largely unchanged, and the VIX measure ofn risk-aversion fell again, -9% to 46. More...
It has been nothing short of amusing (read frustrating) to hear the rubbish being peddled over why this currency did this or that asset did that. And perhaps no more aggravating than in the blovosphere of currency trading in the last week in the face of More...
Chatter that the PBOC has been a large buyer of EUR daily since the start of December suggested to some of us that this trade had probably already run its course. There was the suggestion early on that this was the day to sell EUR/USD as those who had cau More...
With the recent U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut to a record low, the interest rate differential between AUD and USD has widened to a substantial 4.00%. As shown on the accompanying AUD/USD daily chart, More...
In currencies, the price action remained swift and volatile during the New York morning in a session rife with dramatic rumors and technical-related factors, complemented by thin year-end conditions. More...
The commodity currencies are trading mixed steady vs. the USD. The AUD and NZD are higher and the CAD is about steady. The USD is now broadly higher against the major currencies.
The primary carry trade funding currency JPY is weaker vs. the USD. The ca More...
You’re probably kicking yourself for holding on to those hryvnia for a couple days too many.
If you don’t know what I’m talking about, I’ll tell you: Ukraine’s currency – hryvnia – took a nosedive. In the last two days its value has plun More...
In a liquidity starved session, the EUR/USD skyrocketed past the 1.4700 barrier in early European trade as momentum players ignored the worst IFO reading since 1982 and sent the unit flying after it tripped stops at the 1.4500 barrier. The breath taking a More...
The euro surged across the board on Thursday, buoyed by expectations that euro zone interest rates will not fall as steeply as those in other major economies despite data pointing to worsening German business sentiment. More...
In Currencies: Action was swift and volatile during the European morning. Following the better UK retail sales data, the Currency market was choppy and volatile as chatter circulated that the BOJ was performing an intervention to weaken the JPY. More...
December German IFO data were very weak today and raised again the questions in the minds of traders about the rationality of the leadership of the ECB, which incomprehensibly continues to fret about inflation in a deflationary global economy. More...
With dollar denominated assets yielding next to nothing, we have continued to see money flow out of the US dollar. The greenback fell to the lowest level against the Euro since September and dropped to a new 13 year low against the Japanese Yen. More...
The Canadian dollar rose for the third straight session on Wednesday and hit a five-week high as the U.S. dollar was beaten down again a day after the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates.
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The U.S. dollar tumbled against major currencies on Wednesday, hitting its weakest level in more than 13 years versus the yen, a day after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to virtually zero. More...
The USD extended its tumble against major currencies further on Wednesday. Bank dealers cited reduced market participation for the price volatility, as many have already closed their books for the year and are under instructions not to make waves before 1 More...
The market’s reassessment of individual currencies continued, the USD clearly in the dog-box for now, falling 2% (DXY index). Sentiment towards risk improved, the VIX (US equity volatility index) at a 6-week low. Major global equity indices were approxi More...
In currencies, several themes emerged during the session, but year-end liquidity issues continue to be the overall driver of the price action. Dealers are noting that thin liquidity are prevailing as the end of the year approaches. More...
The commodity currencies are trading steady to higher higher vs. the USD. The kiwi is up strongly. The have not broadly advanced again in line with the weakness of USD against the majors. More...
Bullish price action on the key EUR/USD pair (a daily chart of which is shown) has been nothing short of remarkable, especially after the Fed cut rates to a record low More...
The dollar was blasted yesterday by Ben’s Quantitative Easing cannons. It’s game over for the buck, right? Well, maybe…
This morning, so far, we don’t see the wholesale follow-through against the buck (euro, yen, and Swissie doing well). More...
The Fed took extraordinary steps to support the U.S. economy on December 16 by reducing its single point 1.00% target for Fed Funds to a target range of 0% to 0.25%. The Fed decided to target a range because of the difficulty it has encountered in hiting More...
The dollar fell broadly on Wednesday, hitting a 2 1/2-month low against the euro and closing in on a 13-year trough versus the yen after the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to between zero and 0.25 percent. More...
In Currencies: The GBP was weaker against the major pairs from opening levels in Asia. EUR/GBP continues to be the catalyst as it move towards the 0.9150 area. The minutes of the Dec 4th BOE meeting did discuss the GBP. More...
The forex markets have taken the historic Fed easing decision yesterday as a USD negative. However, fixed income and equity markets took it as a constructive decision. These two views will have to be reconciled in time.
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The anti-dollar rally continued in Asian and early European trade today in the aftermath of yesterdays surprising -75bp cut by the Federal Reserve, but the pace of gains was decidedly more muted as currency traders booked profits in the wake of lackluste More...
The US dollar fell to a 2 month low against the Euro following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 75bp to 0.25 percent. The greenback is now the lowest yielding G10 currency and for that reason, we should see foreign selling of US More...
The Canadian dollar closed at its highest level in 5 weeks against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as a decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by more than expected rattled the greenback.
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The U.S. dollar tumbled versus the euro and the yen on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rates more than expected to a record low, further diminishing the appeal of the greenback. More...
The headline grabber today is the US Fed’s fresh announcement: a 75bp rate cut, and the new Fed funds rate anywhere between zero and 0.25%. This is much more dovish than was expected, and risk assets have rallied significantly after the news, which was More...
The Fed made a historic policy decision on Tuesday setting as target range for Fed Funds of 0-0.25%, from a previous single point target of 1.00%. The central bank threw in the “kitchen sink” and took just about every action at their disposal to suppo More...
Interest rate decision out of the FOMC today – Mr. Ben Bernanke and his busy policy-makers announce their latest decision on interest rates this afternoon in the US. Will Ben schmooze the media like Trichet? Doubtful. Estimates say rates will drop anoth More...
After having hit a tentative triple top formation with a confirming shooting star pattern on the third test of the 1.3000 level, the USD/CAD (a daily chart of which is shown) has exhibited some More...
The commodity currencies are trading broadly higher vs. the USD. They have advanced again in line with the broad weakness of USD.
The primary carry trade funding currency JPY is firmer vs. the USD. The JPY is back trading inversely with the behavior of More...
The U.S. Dollar is trading weaker ahead of the FOMC meeting today. Traders know the Fed has to figure out a way to get more cash into circulation. More...
The euro eased from a two-month high against the dollar on Tuesday but losses were limited on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to near zero and take more steps to battle recession. More...
In Currencies: USD rebounded from its two month lows against Europe pairs during the session. Dealers were attributing various technical factors for the price action today. The 1.3760 level represented a 38.2% retracement of the 1.6030 July highs and the More...
After several straight days of triple digit gains both EUR/USD and GBP/USD stalled in early European session as traders locked in profits ahead of the FOMC decision scheduled for 17:15 GMT later today. More...
The U.S. will see a slew of data on the open of trade today (13:30 GMT). CPI data will be watched as concern about DE-flation is a growing concern. Economists say that there are known monetary policy cures for inflation but that deflation can be difficult More...
In Friday’s Daily Currency Focus, we argued that going into the FOMC rate decision, the US dollar could continue to weaken. The sheer reality is that by Tuesday afternoon, the US dollar will be either the lowest or second lowest yielding G10 currency i More...
The Canadian dollar finished 1.6 percent higher versus its U.S. counterpart on Monday as
expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Tuesday pushed traders to abandon the More...
End of year trade continues to see the USD tumble against European currencies. USD weakness is often expected as a seasonal pattern by traders. Gold and oil are mixed. Dealers are looking ahead to a Fed policy easing Tuesday.
Another focus remains on th More...
In currency trading, the greenback was weaker throughout the New York morning thanks to the higher commodity prices. EUR/USD tested the 1.36 level as technical factors fueled a weaker USD against the majors, with GBP/USD testing the 1.53 area while USD/CH More...
The commodity currencies are trading broadly higher vs. the USD. They have advanced in line with the seasonal wekness of USD.
The primary carry trade funding currency JPY is firmer vs. the USD. A week or so ago, the JPY would trade inversely with the be More...
Dramatic bullishness within the last several days on EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has reached a significant downtrend resistance line More...
We don’t think so—at least over the longer term. But no matter what we think near- or long-term, the market likes euro compared to the other players. The euro has bounced strongly against the US dollar. Also, you can see euro’s relative strength More...
EUR/USD got off to a strong start on the first trading day of the week, as optimism among Asian equity investors, whetted risk appetite pushing the pair to within a whisker of 1.3500 level in early European trade. Both Nikkei and Kospi propelled higher ra More...
The strong support base in the Euro is helping to support the current rally. It is often said that “the height of the market is determined the length of the base.” More...
With the release of the latest UK monetary statistics this week, the spotlight should shine on what has been happening to money supply since the credit crisis broke in the summer of 2007. More...
In Currencies: Dealers noting that the Russian Central Bank again is letting the Rouble move outside its stated band,thus another devaluation. || Senior British Treasury Min defended the Govt's decision to raise its borrowing and gave no indication that s More...
Trade is still active as the markets head into the end of year period. The fundamental focus remains on the auto bailout plan. The world did not end after an accord was not reached over the weekend, but the fuse on some of the firms is very short. The las More...
The dollar hit a two-month low against the euro and a basket of currencies on Monday, as investors shunned the U.S. unit on uncertainty surrounding the fate of ailing U.S. automakers and its possible economic impact. More...
Fears that the US Senate’s rejection, on Friday, of a bailout of the US auto industry, would initiate a new phase of global credit contraction was responsible for a sell-down of risk-currencies on Friday around the NZ close. More...
There are things in today's markets that are simply astounding. They should not exist, yet they do. Why should US bills trade at negative interest? How can oil be trading at all-time highs in terms of spreads over the next year? Bank debt and bonds are tr More...
The automaker bailout drama has exerted its toll on the financial markets. Last night, news that the bailout deal fell apart in the Senate drove the US dollar to a 13 year low against the Japanese Yen. Almost immediately, the dollar rebounded and its re More...
The Canadian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar on Friday, and dropped sharply versus the euro, as oil prices retreated and the survival of the North American auto industry was put in question. More...
The dollar fell against the yen on Friday, but recovered from a 13-year low after the White House said it would consider steps to stave off a collapse of the ailing U.S. auto sector. More...
The initial wave of risk aversion early in the European session has abated somewhat as market participants ponder whether the auto bailout is dead or not, or whether the whole thing was just all part of a political game. More...
Relatively low recent volatility on GBP/JPY (a daily chart of which is shown) has been simultaneously consolidating and inching lower in its bid to drop below recent decade-long lows More...
During the course of the week, the US dollar has depreciated significantly against (practically) all major currencies. The euro gained almost 5% to about 1.33. EUR-USD even touched 1.34 for a short time. At first, the Japanese currency only posted very mo More...
The weakness in the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, sent a signal to the equity and commodity markets that it should not be considered a given that the U.S. Dollar is a safe haven investment. More...
The dollar dived to a 13-year low against the yen on Friday after the U.S. Senate failed to agree a bailout for U.S. automakers, cranking up risk aversion and triggering demand for the low-yielding yen. More...
In Currencies: Risk aversion was in full bloom ahead of the European morning following the US Senate inaction on any potential US auto bailout. The JPY exhibited strength in the aftermath of the Senate failure to bring the auto bailout to a formal vote. U More...
USD/JPY hit a 13 year low in Asian session trade today touching 88.15 after the US Senate failed to agree on a bailout package for the Big Three automakers. The news sent a wave of risk aversion flowing through the Asian equity markets as Nikkei tumbled More...
The U.S. auto bailout plan fell apart late Thursday when Senate Republicans refused to support the bill. Their primary objection to the bill was that they felt that the plan would not have restructured the industry to the point where it would have been vi More...
The US dollar took a beating today as weak economic data raises the risk of a 75bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Tuesday. Jobless claims rose by the largest amount since November 1982 with continuing claims hitting the highest level in 26 years. The More...
The Canadian dollar jumped a hefty 2 U.S. cents on Thursday, supported by firmer oil prices and an increased tolerance for risk, before giving up some of its gains from weakening equity markets.
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FXDD Today is a concise one day report that gives a snap shot of the market near the close of trading. It also gives a picture of the trend of the major economic releases due out tomorrow. More...
The U.S. dollar fell broadly on Thursday, hitting seven-week lows against the euro and yen, as safe-haven demand faded and investors began booking year-end profits following months of steady dollar buying.
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The U.S. auto bailout plan was passed by the House late Wednesday. At this point Senate passage of the bill as currently written is doubtful. Odds favor some sort of compromise solution, but that is not a sure bet. A vote by Friday is hoped for. Passage o More...
The USD fell by around 2% against major currencies last night, after some awful data: US jobless claims rose alarmingly, and the US trade deficit widened further. What was unusual last night was the USD being punished, rather than risk currencies and equ More...
Thursday’s price action on EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has made a decisive bullish break of the triangle consolidation that it had been entrenched in for the last month and a half More...
We’ve told our story as to why the US dollar has possibly entered a multi-year bull market. And depending on where else you dig for investment advice, you may have also heard why the US dollar has not entered such a bull market ... why this is only a co More...
The commodity currencies are trading broadly higher vs. the USD. They have advanced in line with the weaker USD. The USD is being weighed down by poor economic data early in NYC. More...
In currencies the greenback continues to face pressure against the major pairs following the ugly US claims data. Both technical and fundamental factors are stoking the more than 250 pip EUR/USD surge More...
The Euro surged overnight following the release of a statement by the European Central Bank calling for a slowdown in future interest rate cuts. More...
In Currencies: The USD was under pressure as the European morning approached. EUR/USD elected the rumored stops above the 1.3050/70 level to test 1.3159 before retreating. More...
EUR/USD hit a high of 1.3157 in late Asian trade today as news of House passage of the auto-bailout bill and a short squeeze that tripped stops above the 1.3100 level helped fuel the pair higher. Although risk assumption remains a temperate support for th More...
As expected, the U.S. House of Representatives approved the auto bailout plan late Wednesday. It’s a much closer call in the Senate and still could go either way. A vote by Friday is hoped for. Passage of the plan would be supportive of equities, and fa More...
The euro hit a six-week high against a broadly weaker dollar on Thursday with doubts beginning to creep in as to whether projected pent-up demand for the U.S. currency would materialise over the year-end. More...
On a quiet day devoid of any major US economic data, the saga surrounding Automakers continue to dominate the headlines. We are inching closer to a formal bailout plan for the Big 3 and as we have previously suggested, regardless of the final outcome, the More...
The Canadian dollar edged higher against a generally weakening U.S. dollar on Wednesday, supported by hopes for a rescue plan for ailing U.S. automakers and by higher oil prices. More...
The dollar fell to a two-week low against the euro on Wednesday and the yen weakened as U.S. lawmakers reached tentative agreement to extend emergency loans to the ailing auto industry, helping to calm investor anxiety. More...
Asian equity markets took comfort from expectations that a bailout of the U.S. automobile sector might be at hand. This optimism did not carry forward much into Europe or the U.S. The early call now is for only a nmodestly higher U.S. close. Not much more More...
Pessimism waned yesterday around the globe. The US car industry rescue plan seems to have been tentatively agreed (voting late NY afternoon), and commodity prices rose (oil +8%, gold +4%), these factors moderately lifting equity markets in Asia, Europe, a More...
Speculation abounds in the last week that correlations in markets between currencies and asset prices are weakening. In particular the argument is made that the USD is ignoring risk aversion as the central motivating theme for FX…risk aversion up, stoc More...
Price action on the key EUR/CHF cross, a daily chart of which is shown, has just reached and slightly retreated from a critical resistance juncture More...
In currencies, the European pairs were broadly firmer against the USD in the New York morning, with the USD tone hampered by technical and fundamental factors, including renewed commodity strength. Dealers noted their surprise that the market did not reac More...
The commodity currencies are trading higher. The AUD, CAD, NZD are better in line with the weaker USD. The USD is being weighed down across the board by higher equities.
The primary carry trade funding currency JPY is weaker vs. the USD in line with the More...
Though Swiss dipped towards 1.1997 during the day today, it had then moved up a little. It took Support of the lower end of the channel and has managed to stay in the narrower channel. Till it..... More...
Though Swiss dipped towards 1.1997 during the day today, it had then moved up a little. It took Support of the lower end of the channel and has managed to stay in the narrower channel. Till it...... More...
The yen fell broadly, while the dollar dipped to a two-week low against the euro on Wednesday as a tentative agreement by U.S. lawmakers to rescue stricken automakers helped cool extreme risk aversion. More...
In Currencies: The USD was firmer against the European pairs as the European morning wore on. The decline in Chinese exports spurring a bit of risk aversion and safe haven plays. EUR/USD at 1.2915, down 15 pips from its opening levels in Asia. BOJ Shiraka More...
The euro and pound were mildly higher in morning European trade after Asian investors rallied their stock markets on news that US authorities have reached a tentative deal on the bailout of the three automakers. The rally however lost much of its fizzle a More...
Asian equity makets have taken comfort from expectations that a bailout of the U.S. automobile sector might be at hand. This optimism has not carried over into Europe at this hour, but the early call is for a higher U.S. open. Accordingly The USD is softe More...
Globally central banks remain on the same page. Just about all of them have moved or are about to embark on a quantitative easing (QE) policy. A policy of QE means that instead of targeting an interest or inflation rate that the bank targets an amount of More...
The Canadian dollar fell more than half a U.S. cent on Tuesday after the Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by a bigger than expected 75 basis points and declared for the first time that the Canadian economy is entering a recession.
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How about this for a novel idea…use taxpayer money to invest in bank stocks to boost Tier 1 capital and voila watch banks get back to the business of banking – lending. More...
The dollar rose against most major currencies on Tuesday as more weak global economic data renewed fears of a worsening crisis, snuffing out a Wall Street rally and prompting safe-haven flows into the greenback. More...
Last night’s session was a game of two halves for currencies – a weak start, driven by falls in Asian equities and poor UK data, followed by a recovery on the back of positive European equities and a large buy-EUR order. The fickle behaviour was unsur More...
The Bank of Canada -75bp rate cut to 1.50% early Tuesday caused a bit of a stir Tuesday. Reviews of the bank’s policy statement were mixed, with additional rate cuts not explicitly signaled, however its tone was dovish. This week sees little in the way More...
Languishing near 6-year lows, GBP/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) is currently adhering closely to a significant downtrend resistance line More...
The commodity currencies are trading weaker. The AUD, CAD, NZD are lower in line with the weaker USD. The USD is being weighed down across the board by lower equities.
The primary carry trade funding currency JPY is firmer vs. the USD in line with the c More...
Ouch! Another seeming dollar correction is off the rails so far this morning, as it is sharply higher against all comers (yen the exception). Watching the dollar move sideways since November 21st is like watching an episode of the Twilight Zone—all ki More...
Both euro and pound were trading off their North American session highs as muted equity markets and continued downbeat data pressured the currencies in early European trade. With equity indices in quiet consolidation after several days of rallies, the foc More...
The euro lost ground against the dollar and yen on Tuesday, beaten down as investor concern focused on economic sentiment in the single currency bloc's biggest economy. More...
In Currencies: The USD held a steady tone in Europe this morning but there was an overall firmer tone to the JPY .The UK. data was broadly weaker with both Manufacturing production and Industrial production coming in below expectations. More...
This week sees little in the way of key U.S. economic data, so the price action should be dominated by flows.
On Monday, forex markets followed the lead of equities, mainly because it is working. By this point we have to assume that the risk profile of More...
For the second trading day in a row, we have seen an improvement in investor sentiment as equities and currencies stage another impressive rally. After a week of brutally painful news for the US economy, this is potentially a week for rest and recovery. More...
The U.S. dollar fell on Monday as President-elect Barack Obama's plan for massive infrastructure spending lifted global stock markets, spurring investors to reduce holdings of safe-haven dollars and take on more risk.
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As expected, forex markets continue to follow the lead of equities. Asian equity indices surged today and European bourses ended up sharply at this hour. U.S. equities look to be closing higher. Odds a partial bailout deal for the auto industry is probabl More...
US equities once again were impressive, the S&P500 posting a 3% gain at time of writing. With no US data released, the move was likely driven by the stimulatory package Barack Obama started unveiling over the weekend. All the major European and Asian bour More...
In currencies, the re-emergence of a greater appetite for risk is the early highlight. Monday's session has been marked by retracement in the USD and JPY related pairs as global equity markets rebound sharply. More...
As noted on last Thursday, the AUD/USD was wavering in the middle of a well-formed triangle pattern. As of Monday morning, price has risen once again to touch and retreat from the top of the triangle More...
If we could only forecast the stock market, then we’d be able to forecast the dollar—it seems. But we can forecast either of them—we can only make probability bets on both. And those probabilities are all in our head—guesswork at best there too. More...
The commodity currencies are trading higher. The AUD, CAD, NZD are higher in line with the weaker USD. The USD is being weighed down across the board by higher equities. More...
Dollar Down as Risk Revives – Sayonara USD/JPY? Last Updated 12/8/2008 9:01:35 AM EST (GMT +5)
Top Stories
Global equities stage a massive rally after positive close in US Friday
Risk currencies rally in tandem with stocks
US lawmakers l More...
A few months ago, the financial markets were in turmoil, but since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in mid September the situation has actually turned much worse. As the Bank of England said in the statement accompanying its decision to cut the Bank rate b More...
In Currencies: The session was marked by retracement in the USD and JPY related pairs as global equity markets rebound sharply. Risk appetite increased during the European morning aided by continued chatter that a deal for the US automakers. More...
Simply because it has been working, forex markets are following the lead of equities to start the new week. Asian equity indices surged today and European bourses are up sharply at this hour. The early call for the open of U.S. equities is for higher. Thi More...
The dollar and the yen fell sharply against the euro on Monday as talk of an imminent bailout deal for stricken U.S. automakers pushed equities higher and helped to quell extreme levels of risk aversion. More...
The US payrolls data for November was as shocking as expected, with the largest monthly loss of jobs since 1974 – 533,000. The S&P500 initially fell on the news, but then rose on pre-weekend position squaring to finish +3.7%. Commodities fell aggressive More...
The US unemployment rate soared to a 15 year high in the month of November as non-farm payrolls incur the steepest slide in 34 years. Although currencies and equities sold off aggressively following the release of the labor market numbers, they clawed the More...
The Canadian dollar clawed back from a six-week low versus the U.S. dollar on Friday, ending a seven-day losing streak, encouraged by a late stock market rally and after the currency failed to drop through a key technical level. More...
Currently near record levels, the key EUR/GBP cross (a daily chart of which is shown) has surpassed the recent decade-plus high for the pair set just last month at around 0.8660 More...
In currencies, the EUR/USD pair continues to maintain a 1.24-1.29 range despite the payroll data. The fear of a full-blown global recession initially had equity markets and commodities plunge before stabilizing a short while later. More...
This week has brought bad news on the economic front, especially from the US, but the main focus has been on further interest rate cuts. Central banks in industrialized countries are lowering their key interest rates drastically in an attempt to combat th More...
Swiss has now retraced most of the dips it made during the US session yesterday after having recorded a low at 1.1964. It seems to be moving in a channel bound by 1.1650 at the bottom .... More...
In Currencies: The EUR/USD pair continues to maintain a 1.24 to 1.29 range ahead of US payroll data. The USD/CNY pair saw the CNY weakens by 0.7% to 6.8810 area during the week for its largest loss More...
A typical pre-NFP night in the currency market characterized by quiet, sideways price action as traders anxiously await the NFP figures due 13:30 GMT.The lack of directional movement tonight is exacerbated by the fact that the G-10 calendar is practically More...
The dollar was little changed against the euro and the yen on Friday, as investors awaited U.S. jobs data which is expected to show that the U.S. economy is deteriorating further and may need more interest rate cuts. More...
We assume that the focus of forex trade Friday will be on equity markets again. It is all that has been working recently. No major economic data releases are due following the jobs data at 13:30 GMT. More...
The US Unemployment report for the month of November will be released at 8:30 AM on Friday. The expectation is for a decline of 325,000 jobs with a rise in the Unemployment Rate to 6.9%.
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The countdown to non-farm payrolls has begun and there is little doubt that job losses last month were severe. However the US dollar’s reaction to the jobs report may surprise you because a weak number may not translate into universal dollar weakness. T More...
The Canadian dollar fell for the seventh-straight day versus the U.S. dollar on Thursday, dropping nearly 2 percent on the back of a sharp drop in oil prices and political uncertainty in Canada.
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The U.S. dollar fell against the euro on Thursday as some investors lauded the European Central Bank's bolder-than-expected interest rate cut as a proactive step to stave off a deep recession in the 15-nation region.
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Official interest rate cuts dominated financial events last night: the Europe's ECB by 75 basis points (the largest in its history), the Bank of England by 100bps, and Sweden by a hefty 175bps. In the US, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said property foreclosur More...
Thursday saw strong cross-currents which have seen the USD cloing lower on the day. The BOE cut interest rates by -100bps as expected to 2.00%. Also the ECB eased by -75bps to a 2.50% refi rate. This rate reduction was on the high side of the market -50bp More...
Has been trading within 1.2331-1.3298 since the low (1.2331) was set Oct 28 and the retracement high (1.3298) was set 2 days later on Oct 30. That makes over 5 weeks of consolidation within this range More...
Much like the consolidations that have been prevailing in other currency pairs lately, the AUD/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has been forming a large symmetrical triangle pattern More...
In currencies, the greenback retreated in the aftermath of this morning's European interest rate decisions. The BoE cut as expected by 100bps to 2.0%, its lowest level since 1951, while the ECB cut by the largest amount in its 10-year history by 75bps to More...
The euro and sterling arrested early falls against the dollar on Thursday, but remained shaky as euro area and UK interest rates were lowered in the global central bank drive to ward off a prolonged global slowdown. More...
Well, the trend is certainly there. Central banks are cutting interest rates in a big way. The first two key news headlines above speak to that point. And of course, the Bank of England just announced a 100-basis point rate cut this morning. The European More...
It is central bank night in FX as both the BoE and the ECB are expected to lower rates significantly later in the day.Ahead of the announcements by the two major central banks, the surprise -175bp rate cut by Sweden’s Riksbank sent risk currencies into More...
In Currencies: The session was all about the British Pound and its related pairs ahead of the BOE interets rate decision today. The market is becoming poised for more aggressive BoE rate cuts. More...
Markets are waiting for two key central bank decisions in a short while. The Swedish Riksbank has already surprised the markets with a -175bp rate cut. The next key decision will be by the BOE (12:00 GMT) a -100bp cut in its 3.00% repo rate is priced in t More...
The volatility in the equity markets has helped the US dollar hold onto its gains. Investors are nervous about the outlook for Friday’s non-farm payrolls report and that is benefitting the low yielders. The Eurozone and UK are expected to cut interest r More...
The Canadian dollar extended its slide against the U.S. dollar to a sixth straight day on Wednesday, in part because of declining oil prices and heightened risk aversion.
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The U.S. dollar and the yen traded little changed against major currencies on Wednesday, paring earlier gains after stocks staged a late rally on Wall Street. More...
The focus of forex trade remains on equity markets, and it was remarkable today that share prices tried to sell off on several poor economic indicators, but that prices continued to bounce back. We often say that its not the news, but the market reaction More...
US equities held their ground last night, on more stimulatory noises from the Fed, who will buy USD500 billion of mortgage and agency debt. This sent US lending rates lower. The data was typically negative, ISM non-manufacturing employment hitting a recor More...
In currencies, the greenback was firmer against the European pairs but remained steady during the NY morning. The lows in the ADP employment report and ISM non-manufacturing index are driving home concerns over the global economy, providing the catalyst f More...
Price action within the last three months on the key GBP/USD pair (a 4-hour chart of which is shown) has been characterized by a series of chart pattern breakdowns More...
The commodity currencies are trading mixed on the day as they continue to take direction from equity markets. The AUD is higher. The NZD is steady and the CAD is weaker. are The USD currently is now mostly higher against the major trading currencies. More...
Talk of deflation is once again threatening the Canadian Dollar. This is a major concern since the Canadian economy relies heavily on key commodities such as crude oil, gold, lumber and wheat. More...
Oh the Canadian dollar! John Ross and I usually say: “They don’t call it the Loonie for nothing!” And at times, after playing a setup in the Loonie where we felt some degree of confidence, and got crushed still, we add another moniker—Currency A More...
The yen extended broad gains on Wednesday, reflecting heightened risk aversion as investors cut back on investments in higher-yielding assets while global equities fell. More...
In Currencies: The GBP exhibited a fresh round of weakness as continued 'speculation' that the government was considering 'possible' entry into the euro. Today's vague Daily Express article on the topic aided to the downside momentum to the GBP. Kindly no More...
Another night of remorselessly grim economic data from Europe pushed both euro and pound lower as currency traders began to price in the possibility of larger than anticipated interest rate cut from the BoE at tomorrow’s MPC meeting. Both EZ services PM More...
Financial markets are biding their time ahead of three key employment surveys from the U.S. today, Thursday and Friday. The ADP private employment survey is due at 13:15 GMT today. The ADP survey tends to be unreliable and recently has tended to overstate More...
It is a challenging week for the financial markets and today’s recovery in equities is characteristic of a bear market rally which is why the dollar managed to hold onto its gains against every major currency except for the Euro. As the only currency th More...
The Canadian dollar fell for a fifth straight day against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday on retreating oil prices and political uncertainty in Ottawa.
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The Fed’s announcement that it will start buying Treasury bonds, along with everyone else in the world it seems, pushes the Fed into official Quantitative Easing (QE) territory. More...
US equities retraced some of Monday’s losses, driven by bargain hunting and some supportive comments from the Fed: Bernanke said if further rate cuts were not possible, unconventional measures would be considered (e.g. buying US treasuries); the Fed als More...
Forex markets were tracking equities again on Tuesday. Dealers seem to lack any other inspiration. The USD fell when equities were rising again. One possibility Monday was that the markets were setting up for a very weak employment report on Friday. Far E More...
The key USD/CAD pair (a daily chart of which is shown) is giving off some clear, yet conflicting, technical signals. After coming down from a rather precise double test of the 1.3000 price region More...
The greenback softened in the New York morning as risk appetite returned following the weak performance at European bourses earlier in their session. The first week of December is an active one for the central banks. More...
The commodity currencies are now trading mostly modestly higher as they continue to take direction from equity markets. The commodity currencies (AUD and NZD) are better vs. the USD. The CAD is about steady. The USD currently is now mostly lower against t More...
I had to pinch myself today while Bernanke spoke to the Austin Chamber of Commerce today. I thought I was at the death bed of the US economy and the Chairman was delivery the last rites. More...
Governments and central banks are now more or less on the same page about the global economy. The markets have become accustomed to regular three-digit interest rate cuts from major central banks as they rush to get abreast of the slowing international ec More...
The yen rallied to a five-week high versus the dollar on Tuesday as volatile stock markets reflected continued risk aversion, while investors anticipated dramatic interest rate cuts later in the week. More...
Dollar Strength Continues But is Risk Aversion Trade Losing Power? Last Updated 12/2/2008 5:17:52 AM EST (GMT +5)
Top Stories
BOJ willing to take BBB credit to alleviate funding conditions
Traders fear competitive devaluation in Asia as CNY More...
In Currencies: Initially euro crosses adding weight on the USD pairings. EUR/USD tested 1.2565 area after European indices followed the Asian market lower. U.S. equity market futures were also in the red early on, but have since recovered losses to trade More...
The markets are still trying to recover from the major slide in U.S. equity prices on Monday. Far East bourses tumbled today in reaction. European bourses are modestly softer at this hour. The early call for the U.S. open today is for higher. More...
Fresh concerns about the global economy have triggered sharp gains in the US dollar and the Japanese yen. Risk aversion continues to seep through the markets as the National Bureau of Economic Research finally admits that the US economy fell into recessio More...
Canada's dollar fell against the U.S. dollar on Monday as a drop in oil pricescombined with political uncertainty and a bleak economic outlook to outweigh a report showing Canada's economy register More...
The U.S. dollar and the yen rose on Monday, benefiting from safe-haven flows after weak economic data heightened fears about a deep economic slowdown around the world.
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This week's mood reverts to the negative sentiment prevailing two weeks ago. US equities fell over 5% on an awful ISM release, one part of that index at a 60 year low. Combined with recent PMI figures for Eurozone, UK, Russia, and China at record lows, an More...
Weakness in equities Monday has dominated trade in all the financial markets. Some indicated that the early part of December is notorious for tax loss selling, and that 2008 has seen substantial losses, so there is plenty of potential selling to be done. More...
Price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, has retraced almost its entire bullish breakout run of early last week. This may be viewed as simply a continuation of the price consolidation that More...
My forecast rate cut of 100 basis points is on the high end of expectations. Here are my reasons. The decision will be revealed at 03:30 GMT Tuesday. More...
In currencies, traders are nervously noting the return of a risk aversion theme that looks a lot like last August. Equities are broadly lower, the USD and JPY pairs are exhibiting strength as funds flow to the safety of government paper in a week with sev More...
The commodity currencies are trading sharply weaker as they continue to take direction from U.S. equity markets. The commodity currencies (AUD and NZD) are all weaker vs. the USD. The USD currently is broadly higher against the major currencies on a risk More...
The Japanese yen strengthened broadly on Monday as slumping Chinese and European manufacturing activity kept investors on edge and dragged world share prices down. More...
The Chancellor confirmed in the 2008 Pre-Budget Report (PBR) that the budget deficit is to rise to £118bn next year, or 8% of gdp, a ratio not seen since 1993, and with the sharpest rise in the ratio seen since the 1970s. But the global financial crisis More...
In Currencies: EUR/GBP cross was firmer by 150 pips. EU's Barroso said the financial crisis has prompted UK officials to acknowledge the merits of the Euro and those who mattered were thinking about adopting the currency. More...
The start of a new week brought only grim economic news from across the ocean driving EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower as equity markets gave up some of last week’s gains and risk aversion returned to the currency market.The data on the economic front was noth More...
The first full week of most months tends to be an active one for the central banks. Inrerest rate cuts are expected just about across the board. The Bank of Japan has aloso called an emergency meeting for tomorrow. It will announce that additional liquidi More...
The Canadian dollar ended lower versus the U.S. currency on Friday as the greenback strengthened, while Canadian investors fretted about the possibility of a second federal election in three months.
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With the global economic downturn in full swing, one of the burning questions on everyone’s minds is who will be the first central bank to take interest rates to zero and how close will everyone else get? More...
The dollar rose versus the euro in thin trade on Friday as volatile equity markets and fears of a deepening global recession led investors to seek the U.S. currency as a haven. More...
The dollar plummeted temporarily this week; EUR-USD rose over 1.30 for the first time in a month. And dollar bears see a good chance of the greenback’s slide accelerating in the next few weeks. More...
The dollar rose against the euro on thin trade on Friday, as weak equities markets and fears of a deepening global recession led investors to seek the U.S. currency as a haven. More...
This week the main trend in the British Pounds turned up for the first time since August 5. This is a sign that investor confidence is returning to the currency. More...
In Currencies: The USD recovered from earlier losses against the European pairs as the morning progressed. Reportedly the Russian Central Bank conducted an additional Rouble basket widening but this unconfirmed at the time of publishing this TTN update. H More...
The USD is a touch firmer early Friday. This should be a holiday-restrained session today in the U.S. with the Thanksgiving holiday resulting in skeletal staffing. The flash Euro-zone HICP estimate was a sharply weaker 2.1% yr/yr. The unemployment rate wa More...
There was no market-moving news last night, and the US had their Thanksgiving holiday which deprived global markets from any clues regarding short-term direction. More...
The Canadian dollar eased slightly against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as investors -- with U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving Day -- reacted to weaker energy and metals prices, and waited for a More...
Swiss has moved in a very narrow range between 1.1955 and 1.2024 during the day. The pair is making a S-H-S formation on the hourly chart with Support at 1.1955. We are holding Long on the pair. I More...
"It will therefore be crucial that you see the world anew. That means looking from the outside in to reanalyze much that you have probably taken for granted. This will enable you to come to an More...
In Currencies: In currencies, the USD was softer during the European morning. With dealer noting that the U.S. holiday and month-end would likely suppress trading conditions for the remainder of the week More...
The yen gained against the dollar and euro on Thursday as market worries about the cost of fiscal stimulus packages and how far they could succeed in fending off a global recession kept the low-yielding currency supported. More...
On the eve before Thanksgiving, the price action in the currency market has been very erratic. Equities rallied for the fourth straight trading session while the US dollar weakened against the Australian and New Zealand dollars but strengthened against th More...
The Canadian dollar dipped 0.4percent against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday on worries over slackening demand for Canadian commodities, but it closed well off its lows for the day as North American More...
The dollar rose against the euro on Wednesday as a string of weak U.S. economic reports renewed worries of a deepening economic recession, leading investors to seek the greenback as a safe haven. More...
A lot of US economic data was released night, most of it weaker than expected. Durable goods orders were particularly awful, falling by 6.2% against expectations of -3%. More...
After breaking slightly above a key downtrend resistance line on Monday, price action on the USD/JPY (a daily chart of which is shown) has turned abruptly back down, respecting that dynamic resistance More...
As every trader with some longevity knows the first question you should ask the moment a trade is made is this: Where am I wrong? And that question needs to be repeated hundreds of times in your head throughout the trade in order to stay open to new info More...
Speakers: ECB's Trichet stated in a press interview that negative figures would appear in Euro-zone in 2009. He noted that the ECB is prepared to take any measures necessary to improve short term liquidity. Reiterates that ECB primary aim to keep inflatio More...
The Bank of China surprised the market tonight with a 108bp rate cut in it deposit lending rates and a 100bp cut in reserve requirements for its banks sparking a short lived rally in equities while lifting the EURUSD above 1.3000 in early European trade. More...
The yen rose against the euro and higher-yielding currencies on Wednesday, with struggling European shares helping to spur risk aversion ahead of expected economic stimulus measures by the European Union. More...
This market has become more and more difficult to satisfy. The US government announced this morning that they will be spending as much as $800 billion to help ease lending for homeowners, consumers and small businesses. More...
The Canadian dollar closed at its highest level in a week on Tuesday as new U.S. measures to
boost consumer spending eased concerns about the economic crisis and dulled the greenback's safe-haven More...
The U.S. dollar dropped for a third day against the euro on Tuesday, giving the euro its best three-day percentage advance ever, as new U.S. measures to boost consumer lending helped ease concerns about the financial crisis, diminishing demand for the dol More...
The main news overnight is the US Federal Reserve committing an additional USD800 billion to stimulate lending: $600 billion to buy housing-finance company debt, and $200 billion to support consumer and small business loans. More...
The USD headed south on Tuesday even though equities generally traded sideways. This is a holiday-shortened week in the U.S. with the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday preceeded by early closures tomorrow, and skeletal staffing following on Friday. Most wi More...
The greenback was broadly softer throughout the New York morning thanks to the latest round of economic stimulation measures in the US as well as a new French package. French President Sarkozy said he would announce a “massive stimulus plan” within a More...
The U.S. Federal Reserve remains in a leadership role because it has been well ahead of the other major central banks in recognizing the trouble the global economy had gotten into. To its credit, it acted preemptively. This means that the U.S. is likely t More...
Yesterday looked like another day foreshadowing a decent dollar correction on the bounce higher in stocks. This morning we wake to a stronger dollar again….hmmm…and of course “new” concerns about... More...
Although Asian markets rose in overnight trade trying to catch up to Wall Street’s best two day rally in more than 20 years, European bourses sold off in a wave of profit taking and dragged risk currencies down with them. More...
The yen gained broadly on Tuesday, while currencies with high yields fell as global recession fears returned to haunt financial markets, keeping stock markets volatile and risk demand low. More...
In Currencies: The USD saw a moderate recovery after weakening on Monday. The recent inverse relationship of USD and JPY in regards to equity price movements remained intact. ECB's Nowotny noted that the ECB could not rule out cutting interest rates to as More...
Forex trade is off to a cautious start today as dealers consolidate the significant USD downswing from yesterday. As usual, forex prices are following the swings in equity indices which surged yesterday as well following the Citi bailout plan. More...
Another impressive rally in stocks has resurrected the talk of a bottom in the US equity markets. Although the sell-off last week may have hit value points, the risk of more turbulent times ahead keeps us skeptical of a long term recovery. It is difficult More...
The Canadian dollar jumped toits highest level in nearly a week on Monday as a surge in the
price of oil and a rally in global equity markets took a bit of the shine off the U.S. dollar's recent More...
The Citi bailout program could turn out to have been a watershed events for the markets, but we will not know if this true for several months. Importantly, the government drew a bright red line around Citibank and all of the other institutions named insid More...
A couple of boosts to sentiment from the northern hemisphere last night helped equity markets rally back through key levels. The US Government agreed to bail out Citigroup last night, providing More...
In currencies, the typical inverse relationship between the equity markets and the USD- and JPY-related pairs remained in place this morning. EUR/USD is probing the upper end of its one-month consolidation range of 1.24-1.28, with dealers noting that the More...
It appears that the commodity currencies are taking direction from the U.S. equity markets. The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are sharply higher vs. the USD. The USD is broadly down against the major currencies. Risk assumption is back in play t More...
Despite news that the German Ifo Business Confidence Index fell to a 16-year low, the Euro remained strong versus the U.S. Dollar in overnight trading. More...
This is undoubtedly the toughest Pre-Budget Report (PBR) that labour has had to deliver since it took office in 1997. For a start, this is the first recession the government has experienced – although one was only just avoided in 2002, helped by increas More...
The dollar and yen gave up broad early gains on Monday as investors eased back from risk averse positions, taking a cue from stock market cheer after the U.S. government rode to the rescue of banking More...
The currency has moved little since the last update. It has traded between 1.2161 and 1.2227 during the day. Some bit of consolidation is happening in this region after the surge that the pair has see More...
In Currencies: The general theme that the USD and JPY related pairs price direction tends to be negatively correlated to equity price movement remained in force this European morning. EUR/USD was probing towards the 1.27 area More...
The Citi bailout plan announced overnight has taken some of the USD risk premium ot of the market and has sent a signal to the equity markets what “too big to fail” now means. Unfortunately this was not done before LEH. Additional bear raids on major More...
Leverage is an eight-letter word, which the markets now regard as twice as bad as the two four-letter words debt and pain (or fill in your own four-letter words). This week I try to give some insight into what is happening in the credit markets, some of i More...
On a day when the market had nothing to be happy about, the leak of President-elect Barack Obama’s Cabinet announcements has erased one major uncertainty for the financial markets, sending equities and currencies soaring. More...
The Canadian dollar rose for the first time in four sessions on Friday, helped by stronger commodity prices and rallying stock markets, which took the shine off the U.S. dollar's safe-haven status.
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The greenback was mildly weaker on Friday but maintained its overall tone of consolidation as the week ended. The dollar's moves are extending its consolidation in a 1.24-1.28 range after hitting lows at 1.2330 back on Oct 27. While US equities have been More...
Nero may have fiddled while Rome burned, but US Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke might as well be on their way to Disneyland in some phantasmagorical celebration of having successfully stabilized the financial system. That is what bot More...
Renewed losses in equity markets and persistently weak economic data have boosted the dollar and the yen. However, considering that US equities hit new lows – the Dow Jones fell to almost 7500, and the S&P500 to about 750 – exchange rates were not aff More...
I received an email from a reader that contained an interesting fact:
Seven separate assets currently maintain an 85% correlation (or better) with the S&P 500 over the last six months.
Included in that group is Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, emerging- More...
Nothing surprises me in this market as the pendulum swings once again from panic to relief. Best we can say today is this is a relief rally but a better Wall Street will at the least lead to some consolidation after the sharp overnight moves. More...
After another brutal sell off during the US session, equities in Asia and Europe staged a U turn bounce on rumors that Citibank may be looking for a buyer. Citibank whose stock sank to $5 per share and whose board meets today is facing enormous pressure t More...
In Currencies: Dealer chatter of potential emergency central bank meetings taking place on Friday. Rumor that China's PBoC could cut their interest rates by 54bps today complimented with vague chatter of an 'emergency' Fed meeting making the rounds as wel More...
Equities overseas have rebounded from their lows early in the day after the weak U.S. close on Thursday. The approaching weekend might have forced some to lighten up on their shorts. Also speculation that Citi is pondering some sort of steps to resolve it More...
The yen fell back sharply from earlier highs and the dollar weakened broadly on Friday as a rebound in global stocks from the previous day's rout curbed investors' demand for the Japanese and U.S. currencies. More...
The financial markets have been very schizophrenic today indicating that investors are still nervous. It was another roller coaster session in US equities with the Dow hitting a 5 year low shortly after the market open, recovering all of those losses and More...
The U.S. dollar slumped versus the yen on Thursday, squeezed by Wall Street's plunge as fears of a worldwide downturn that was much deeper than initially thought made investors seek shelter in the safest assets.
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The Canadian dollar lost 2-1/2 U.S cents against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as commodity prices weakened and global stock markets were routed. More...
Last night's market action was highly significant, and takes us into new trading territory. The catalyst, as has been the case for the past few months, was global equity market selling, with the Dow falling below the important 8000 level. Should that inde More...
Thursday was yet another difficult day for the markets. Politicians who apparently have no concept of the precarious state of the financial markets played brinksmanship with the bailout loan plan for the big three automakers. So much for “CHANGE”. More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are sharply weaker vs. the USD. The USD is mixed to higher against the major currencies. Risk aversion has been in play today.
The carry trade funding currency JPY is higher vs. the USD. Stocks are currently s More...
The Swiss National Bank surprised currency traders with a big inter-meeting move, cutting rates in half with a 100 bps ease. The SNB said the surprise move was necessary as prices have fallen in both oil and raw materials at a rate that could put inflatio More...
175 basis points worth of Swiss National Bank easing since October 8th retores the target rate to the level prevailing in the three months to mid-March 2006. More...
Best of CC: Below is a reprint of our 9 July 2008 Currency Currents where we examined the break down in the correlation between oil and the dollar—it was telling us something as we suspected. It’s another example of why we pay close attention to inte More...
In Currencies: risk aversion has been seen in overnight trade, and more of the same can be expected today. The USD and JPY continue to reflect the equity price movement in terms of theme. EUR/USD at 1.2500 and USD/USD retested the 95.00 historical pivot p More...
Fear continues to rule in the financial markets. The yield on the two-year note has fallen to a new low of 1.07%, -2bps from its depressed levels on Wednesday. Risk aversion was put back on the table Wednesday after it became clear that the plea of the More...
The euro hit a one-week low against the yen and the dollar on Thursday after a dim economic outlook from the Federal Reserve underlined dire global conditions, sparking fresh demand for lower-yielding currencies. More...
Tuesday’s rebound in risk appetite was short-lived as the FOMC minutes revealed that the contraction in the US economy could last well into the summer of 2009. In light of the 400 point drop in the Dow, the US dollar and Japanese Yen regained strength a More...
The U.S. dollar slipped versus the yen on Wednesday, as worries grew about the ailing U.S. auto industry and a record slide in U.S. consumer prices fanned fears of a deeper recession. More...
The Canadian dollar closedbelow 80 U.S. cents for the first time since since Oct. 28 on Wednesday as stock markets tumbled, prompting nervous U.S.investors to bring funds home More...
Risk aversion was back on the table on Wednesday. Concerns about the global economy were most evident in equity and fixed income markets. The financial services stocks were particularly hard hit. More...
Currencies remain rangebound, with the overall trend dictated by major global equity markets, and punctuated by the occasional large foreign exchange transaction (such as occurred last night in Europe). Comments from policymakers in the US and down under More...
The greenback moved lower ahead of the equity open on what appeared at first to be a technical correction or maybe some kind of intervention. Dealing desks later decided that the USD sell-off was just a reaction to the morning's spike in gold and oil pric More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are trading mixed to higher vs. the USD. The NZD was last about steady on the day. The USD is mixed to lower against the major currencies. More...
Last week I touched on the potential end to the sideways US dollar correction. Then all of a sudden some unidentified reckless group came in to buy stocks and keep them from finishing at lows not seen since 2003. As I also mentioned, that effort gave trad More...
The yen strengthened broadly while the dollar steadied on Wednesday as deepening unease about the world economy put stock markets back under downward pressure. More...
In Currencies: The BOE minutes added little surprise that the vote was 9-0 back on Nov 6th to cut interest rates by 150 bps, but took notice of the scope for more interest rate cuts. Dealers noted that UK Sonia now implying over 95% chance of 100bps cut a More...
Another lackluster session of Asian and early European trade with majors locked into tight ranges as volatility compresses across all capital markets. The Nikkei drifted slightly lower ending the day -55 from yesterday’s close and European markets follo More...
Markets seem to be waiting for something, but its not clear what. Whatever they are waiting for hopefully will provide some stable direction. Trading off equity indices is proving to be a difficult task More...
The foreign exchange markets were relatively quiet today despite the big moves in US equities. Stocks hit 5 year lows intraday before reversing violently higher in the last hour of trading. More...
The Canadian dollar closed at its lowest level in a week against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday
as the growing prospects of a global recession convinced traders to unwind gains recorded in the More...
One focus of trade today was House testimony by Secretary Paulson, Fed Chairman Bernanke and FDIC Chief Bair. Not much progress was made on the TARP program update, but Paulson did make the point that the financial system has been stabilized. More...
Following the pattern of recent weeks, non-US currencies tracked the equity indices closely overnight. The Dow Jones index rose 2.5% in the early US session, but has given up that gain at the time of writing. Most currencies are currently around the level More...
In currencies, the greenback is following the lead of equity markets: the USD and JPY tend to follow the equity markets inversely, and today was no exception. As noted during the European morning, the question of the day among dealing desks remains whethe More...
The commodity currencies (AUD and NZD) are trading higher vs. the USD. The CAD was last about steady on the day. The USD is mixed to higher against the major currencies. More...
The euro fell against the dollar and the yen on Tuesday, as a stream of evidence that the global economy is continuing to suffer kept demand intact for unwinding risky positions in favour of low-yielding currencies. More...
In Currencies: Trading has been very quiet today in Europe with most currencies remaining range-bound for the session. Overall the theme continues to be defined by purchasing USD in reaction to weak equities (and visa-versa). EUR/USD was moving towards th More...
A very uneventful night in FX so far with equities keeping mild downside pressure on risk currencies, but with tepid flows and tame price action characterizing trade there was little directional bias in Asia and early Europe. More...
Risk-aversion has been back on the table Tuesday, as key global equities continue to probe for a floor. Traders are now facing the danger of an “L-shaped” recovery rather than a “V” or a “U”. The lackluster outcome of the G20 meeting has fuele More...
Since the summer, the US dollar has staged a remarkable rally, but with manufacturing data surprising to the upside and the US dollar giving back its gains today, everyone is wondering whether the dollar rally is over. The British pound, which has seen on More...
The Canadian dollar ended higher against the U.S. currency on Monday, rebounding from morning lows as the greenback retreated broadly following weak
U.S. manufacturing data.
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The dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Monday, as weak U.S. manufacturing data deepened worries about the global economy, and investors fretted that leaders worldwide ended a weekend meeting with few concrete proposals for dealing with this year's do More...
Traders were remarkably cautious on Monday in N.Y. The lackluster outcome of the G20 meeting was unsurprising, but still a disappointment. Apart from a lot of hot air, they decided to meet before the end of April. There were too many participants and the More...
Currency markets were largely subdued after the New Zealand close, with the US equity markets again driving most of the movement. Asian equities remained largely stable, Europe ended weaker, and the Dow Jones index initially fell 250 points. The ensuing D More...
The greenback was weaker against the European pairs on a combination of recent-profit taking and higher crude prices. GBP/USD rose over 350+ pips as dealers noted good interest from far eastern names from the start of the European session. GBP/JPY is firm More...
No major new global frameworks were hashed out by the G-20. Dollar is giving back some gains from that late blow-off move very late in the day on Friday. The pound is staging a nice-sized bounce.
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The commodity currencies (AUD and NZD) are trading mixed vs. the USD. Currently from Friday closes, the largest move now is the lower CAD. The USD is broadly mixed against the major currencies. More...
Sterling has fallen sharply in the past year, down by 20% on the trade-weighted index. The fall against the dollar and the euro has been as deep or deeper, with depreciation of 29% and 16%, More...
The dollar fell on Monday, driven largely by a bounce in sterling, but risk-averse positions were seen staying in favour after the weekend G20 meeting failed to yield specific action to restore global market confidence. More...
In Currencies dealers noting that 'profit-taking' was the predominant theme. Overall the prospects of a EUR/USD trading range of 1.24 to 1.28 seems to be the current macro view. However, risk appetite or aversion would likely take its cue from the US equi More...
The lack of a definitive outcome from the G20 meeting over the weekend was unsurprising, but still a disappointment to some. Inessence the group decided to meet again before the end of April. In retrospect, its had to imagine what the group collectively c More...
Currencies continued to look to equity markets for direction, ensuring another rollercoaster ride on Friday night. The major currencies were flat or slightly higher against the US dollar during the New York session, but US equities gave up the ghost near More...
So, this week I take another look at my Muddle Through stance. We look at some of the recent data on unemployment and retail sales, think about the implications of a falling trade deficit and a rising US government deficit, speculate about the potential f More...
In these markets, the successful trader has to take each situation on its own terms. Forex markets remain thin and illiquid. At the moment, the markets continue to take on and off the risk aversion trade depending on whether equities trade higher or low More...
An amazingly volatile Dow trading session has seen prices open down 200 points, rally 150 points, only to end the day down 3.80%. The whipsaws have only added to the uncertainty and fear expressed by many investors, pushing up the dollar and yen against i More...
The Canadian dollar retreatedversus the U.S. dollar on Friday as oil prices gave back some of the previous day's gains, while sluggish equity markets
prompted risk-averse investors to embrace the More...
The greenback has sustained its mixed tone during the New York morning as it firmed against the European pairs but trended lower against the JPY from opening levels in Asia. EUR/USD was at 1.2680, firmer by 100 pips from opening levels. More...
Financial markets cheered up initially at the beginning of the week after the announcement that China was launching a fiscal stimulus package and would spend the gigantic sum of Rmb 4,000bn More...
If you have not noticed, most commodity markets have, for the most part, been holding the lows established over the last two to four weeks. Soybeans are holding the low put in on October 16, Gold and More...
On Tuesday, in Currency Currents, I got into some Elliot Wave Principle in order to discuss why the US dollar correction might have been over, opening the door for sharp appreciation.
Until yesterday afternoon my forecast was right on the money. The US More...
The euro fell against the dollar and the yen on Friday, brushing off a rise in European shares with risk aversion running high as data confirmed the single currency zone had slid into recession. More...
In Currencies: The USD was mixed ahead of the NY open on Friday following the late afternoon surge in equity prices on Thursday. EUR/USD was at 1.2715, firmer by 75 pips from opening levels in Asia. More...
Asian and European equity markets followed through with only a modest rise after the 900 point turnaround to the upside in the DJIA yesterday and risk currencies drifted lower as a result with EUR/USD trading back below the 1.2700 handle despite some surp More...
The focus is back on the U.S. following the late afternoon surge in equity prices on Thursday. Most are prepared for a correction today into the weekend, and are dismissing the move as a bear market rally. Mainly weak u.S. data are expected today. More...
The Canadian dollar rose forthe first time in four days on Thursday, catching fire late in the session as oil prices rose and rallying stock markets whetted the market's appetite for risk, prompting More...
In every major bear market, there are relief rallies and that is what we have seen today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 300 points during the US trading session before reversing violently to end the day up more than 550 point More...
The U.S. dollar fell against the euro on Thursday as a strong performance on Wall Street helped ease extreme risk aversion, reducing demand for safety.
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A virtual repeat of previous sessions, with the major currencies marking time until US equity markets opened, then following in lockstep. Equities fared better last night though, with the Dow in slightly positive territory at the time of writing, recoveri More...
The focus was back on the U.S. with the key weekly jobless claims on the oprn surpassing the psychological 500,000 line. They are seen by many as the most current indicator of the strength or weakness) of the economy. Trade data improved due to weak impor More...
The greenback has been mixed in a trading session wracked by multiple cross currents as traders try to determine which sector of the global economy has been least impacted by the slowdown. More...
The commodity currencies (AUD and NZD) are trading mixed vs. the USD. The USD is broadly mixed against the major currencies.
The JPY is weaker on stable stocks and on a neutral risk aversion profile by the markets. More...
I said from the get go that TARP was a down payment on the financial crisis or bank panic of 2008. Indeed it was a down payment, a very small one, and with about half of the TARP depleted ($60bln left of the $350bln tranche), the Treasury will need to ge More...
In Currencies: The USD and JPY continue to reflect the equity price movements. The carry-related pairs rebounded from Asian lows after the RBA defend once again defended the A$. More...
Yesterday we noted that, “another triple digit slaughter in equities could easily drag the pair towards the 1.2400 handle for a retest of its recent lows.” In today’s late Asian trade that scenario played out to a tee as the EUR/USD was beaten down More...
he yen fell against the dollar and euro on Thursday with wary investors finding respite from deleveraging as European shares steadied, but global economic worries remained, keeping overall risk aversion intact. More...
As we have been predicting central banks are all getting on the same page on policy. Unfortunately, the ECB still sems to be dragging its feet. On the other hand, the Bank of England finally capitulated and acknowledged the error of its ways and announced More...
The global unwind continues with currencies, equities and commodities taking another beating. Other than the Japanese Yen, all of the major currencies have weakened against the US dollar. More...
The Canadian dollar closed lower versus the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as a steep slide in the price of crude and falling metals prices pushed the currency to its lowest level in two weeks.
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The U.S. dollar tumbled against the yen on Wednesday as investors shunned risky assets after comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson heightened concerns about the economy and sparked a global sell-off in equities. More...
The BOE quarterly inflation report was a major development Wednesday as it kept open the door for additional aggressive ease in the near future. The GBP tumbled vs. the USD and on its crosses in response. There was market speculation that a big seller of More...
Overnight price action was a virtual rerun of the previous two days, with riskier currencies holding their ground against the USD until the minute that US equity markets opened. Equities fell heavily after US Treasury Secretary Paulson said that buying to More...
The greenback has displayed mixed price action during the New York morning among the major pairs. USD/CAD remains bid on the back of the lower trend in oil prices as front-month NYMEX crude posts fresh 20-month lows. In addition, the Bank of Canada announ More...
Look for a lower trade today as the EUR USD should continue to feel selling pressure as traders are shunning the higher yielding, riskier Euro. More...
Commenting on Bank of England Governor Kings recent utterances, Bloomberg shared this story today:
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) ``We are certainly prepared to cut bank rate if that proves to be necessary'' to hit the central bank's 2 percent inflation target, s More...
The euro pared gains against the dollar on Wednesday after data underlined economic weakness, while sterling tumbled after a grim Bank of England forecast fuelled expectations for more UK interest rate cuts. More...
Dollar-Swiss is sustaining gains above 1.18 so far today and could well move up to test 1.20, possibly even 1.21 over the next few days. However, take a look More...
In Currencies: Risk aversion crept back into the market as Russian equity exchanges continue to hobble along. EUR/USD opened in Europe at 1.2630 but declined back towards the 1.2515 level as the morning wore on. The GBP exhibited additional weakness More...
The sterling index hit 12 year lows today with cable hitting 1.5321 in morning London trade after UK labor data showed a rise in jobless claims of 36.5K. Although the number was a tad less than expectations it was nevertheless the highest reading since th More...
The just-released BOE quarterly inflation report has left the door open for additional aggressive ease in the near future.
N.Y. markets return to full strength today foolowing the Tuesday partial holiday. Activity this week has also been hampered by a s More...
Every day, equities, currency and bond traders weigh the good news with the bad to determine if they want to buy or sell. Today, there were just as many positive reports that should have helped to stabilize the markets but has instead failed to stem the b More...
The Canadian dollar closed lower versus the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as a sharp slide in the price of oil, a key Canadian export, and fears of a global recession shook the currency off its early gains.
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The U.S. dollar rallied to a two-week high against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as worries about a deteriorating global economy prompted investors to shun riskier assets and flock to the safety of the greenback. More...
Investors retreated further from risk during a holiday-thinned New York trading session. The last few days have seen a clear split between sentiment in local time, where China's fiscal stimulus package has boosted confidence in the Asia region, and in the More...
Jack’s been running around speaking at various currency tours and seminars this year. And there’s one line he likes to use when conveying the uncertainty of trading in any market ...
“It’s better to be lucky than good.”
In other words, whe More...
My thoughts are we are in for this type of market the rest of the year - not much will change - lousy data, focus on stocks, flow and order driven, less spec driven, rate cuts. More...
The Euro is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar this morning despite fears that the U.S. recession will be longer and deeper than originally forecast. More...
In Currencies: The USD continues to consolidate in its triangle pattern from late Oct. Demand for EUR/GBP cross had been a supportive factor for EUR/USD during the European morning. EUR/GBP Cross hit an all-time high of 0.8214 | More...
The EUR/USD tried to shrug off the weak performance in equity markets today by rallying for most of the early European session reaching a high of 1.2800 before trailing back to 1.2750 in generally More...
The euro rose against the dollar and the yen on Tuesday as traders brushed off a slide in share prices and focused on the single European currency's rally, nearing a record high against a broadly weaker sterling. More...
US equity traders realize that everyone is pinning too much hope on China. The big story in the financial markets today is the 4 trillion Yuan or $586 billion stimulus plan announced by China on Sunday. Equities in Asia rallied strongly overnight, taking More...
The Canadian dollar fell versus the U.S. dollar on Monday as a swath of dismal corporate news dampened the enthusiasm sparked by a Chinese stimulus package that had earlier propped up the currency.
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Risky assets initially maintained their upward momentum on the back of the fiscal stimulus package announced by China yesterday, but couldn't sustain those gains through the New York session. The Chinese stimulus package of nUS$585bn, equivalent to around More...
Slowing economic growth and falling inflation is leading to record low interest rates…
Interest rates are being cut aggressively around the world as economic growth slows and as price inflation either falls back from recent peaks or is set to fall sh More...
A mid-week partial holiday in the U.S. tends to be very disruptive to trading. U.S. bond markets are closing shortly, but equity trading will continue. Fed holidays tend to shut down the interbank forex market because of required cash settlement of transa More...
The commodity currencies (AUD and NZD) are trading higher vs. the USD in the wake of the massive Chinese stimulus program. The CAD responded positively initially on hopes of increased commodity demand but it since has tailed off in line with a mostly high More...
China’s new fiscal stimulus package is receiving rave reviews across the board this morning. Bond prices lower, stocks higher, oil higher, gold higher and the dollar getting whacked—it’s déjà vu all over again for the risk appetite crowd.
Shou More...
In Currencies: The USD was mixed against the majors in a quiet European morning. For the most part dealers are eyeing the recent consolidation range in EUR/USD pair with 1.2700 viewed as critical hourly support and 1.3000 at resistance since late Oct. ECB More...
EUR/USD pushed higher at the start of the week on much better risk appetite flows after Chinese authorities announced a major stimulus package for the next two years which could equal up to 15% of the country’s GDP The Chinese officials announced plans More...
China has announced a nearly USD 600bln domestic economic stimulus program. Some of the items had been previously announced, but the bulk of the spending is new. The announcement gave Far East bourses a lift. In the U.S., the government has made the terms More...
The dollar retreated against the euro on Monday, while the low-yielding yen fell broadly on a slight easing in risk aversion after China's announcement of a major economic stimulus package boosted share prices. More...
In this week's letter we discuss "The Great Unwind," that process of deleveraging that we are now in the midst of. We also explore some recent economic data on the economy. More...
Half a million jobs were lost in the US economy over the past 2 months, driving the unemployment rate to a 14 year high. Even though October non-farm payrolls fell short of our -300k expectation, the 240k drop and the revision from -159k to -284k for the More...
The Canadian dollar ended higher on Friday and snapped a two-session losing skid after data showed the Canadian economy unexpectedly added jobs in October, although many of the jobs were special hires More...
The dollar dipped against most major currencies on Friday after data showed U.S. employers cut 240,000 jobs last month, pushing the jobless rate to a 14-year high and adding more dark clouds to a gloomy economic horizon More...
The protracted financial crisis is having a marked impact on the real economy worldwide. The third quarter was weak, but it looks as though the fourth quarter will be even weaker. The current data are alarming: in the US, the ISM index for the manufacturi More...
In currencies, the greenback was mixed in US trading following the October non-farm payroll report. As noted during the European session, the dollar price action has been more dependent on equity movements as higher stocks usually suggest a weak USD and J More...
Unemployment rate rises from 6.1% to 6.5%. NFP worse than expected with bad revision. Govt and Health only up sector, but last month even those sectors showed declines. Weak number. Weak US growth. More...
In Currencies: The overall USD and the JPY price action continues to be dictated by equity index moves. The strong recovery in the Nikkei from session lows enable some profit-taking in various short-term proprietary desks with GBP-related pairs leading th More...
After being buffeted by risk aversion flows all day longyesterday, the dollar was weaker across the board in early European trade as equity markets staged a mild rally and currency tradersprepared for the US Non- Farm payroll number due at 13:30 GMT today More...
The USD is generally lower heading into the October U.S. employment report at 13:30 GMT. Jobs are expected to have fallen by -200K in the month. There are estimates for even a worse outcome. The markets know already that the economy is weak, but the data More...
The dollar slipped on Friday as early gains in European shares tempted some investors to sell the U.S. currency for higher-yielding ones, while markets awaited an important reading of U.S. unemployment. More...
Even though the US economy has not officially entered a recession, the US labor market has. October will mark the tenth consecutive month of net job losses. The market currently projects a loss of 200k jobs last month, but given the trend of job losses in More...
The Canadian dollar closed lower versus a stronger U.S. dollar on Thursday as a slide in prices
for key Canadian commodities along with tumbling equity markets sparked demand for the greenback. More...
The euro fell broadly on Thursday after the European Central Bank cut interest rates by half a percentage point, disappointing investors who thought sluggish economic growth called for a more aggressive move.
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It was one-way traffic in US equity markets, the DJIA sliding >400pts in afternoon NYSE trade, stoking the safe haven/ repatriation bid for USD. Equity volatility index VIX rebounded to over 64%, its highest level since 29 Oct. More...
Many have been dreading the October U.S. employment report due on the N.Y. open on Friday. Jobs are expected to have fallen by -200K in the month, although some estimates are even for a worse outcome. More...
Rate cut fever swept through the currency markets this morning. The BoE made its biggest cut ever, slashing rates by 150bps to 3.00%. The ECB cut for the second time in a month, taking 50 bps off of its key rate, bringing it to 3.25%. More...
I am a day late on this one, maybe two but I have to get this off my chest as the bloviating class launches full force into an attempt to paint Obama administration as overreaching on the economy with tax and regulatory issues before it has had time to ev More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all trading weaker vs. the USD. This is in line with the mostly higher USD.
The JPY is trading better in line with falling U.S. shares on a risk aversion play. More...
Today is interest rate day! That is, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank culminate their most recent monetary policy discussions and announce changes to their benchmark interest rates.
The BOE actually just decided to cut rates a full per More...
the move was only a third as forceful as the Bank of England’s and in that context appears to timid. A 75-basis point cut was also considered and should have been chosen instead. More...
The focus in the NY morning will be on the European interest rate decisions. BOE is expected to cut its rates by 50bps to 4.00%. There are some banks and former BOE members suggesting More...
Global equity markets tanked in both Asia and Europe but EUR/USD did not follow through to the downside as the pair has started to deviate from the familiar risk assumption/risk aversion dynamic that has dominated currency trading for the past several mon More...
Today sees major monetary policy decisions from the BOE and ECB. The BOE is expected to cut at least by 50bps to 4.00%. Speculation has grown for -75 or -100 bps ease. The ECB should cut by -50bps to 3.25%. Talk of a larger cut is misplaced. Trichet press More...
The euro was lower against the dollar and yen on Thursday ahead of a widely anticipated rate cut by the European Central Bank, while the dollar and low-yielding yen gained on risk aversion as shares fell. More...
The sweeping victory of Barack Obama in the US Presidential Race has been the biggest story of the day. Obama supporters are ecstatic, but the financial markets are not. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped close to 500 today while the reaction in the More...
The Canadian dollar closed lower versus the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, ending a six-session win streak, as lower oil prices weighed on the commodity-sensitive currency ahead of the release of key jobs More...
The dollar fell against the yen on Wednesday as weak economic data added to fears about the economy but gained on the euro after Democrat Barack Obama's decisive victory in the U.S. presidential election. More...
Thursday sees major monetary policy decisions from the BOE and ECB. Markets feel interest rate cuts by both are a sure thing. The BOE is expected to cut at least by 50bps to 4.00%. Recent speculation has been building for -75 or -100 bps ease. The ECB is More...
USD jagged lower in thin London/NY trade, with apparent gloom over Friday’s US employment report, including some forecasts being revised to -300K on NFP. The DJIA opened weaker and extended losses i More...
Two of the commodity currencies (AUD and CAD) are all trading weaker vs. the USD. This is a divergence from the mostly lower USD. The kiwi is better.
The JPY is trading better in line with weaker U.S. shares on a risk aversion play More...
…we are big believers that after following the chain of price action, sooner or later, it all comes back in some way to the rate of interest. Interest rates are the core of all things financial, though the link may be seemingly distorted at times.
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In Currencies: EUR/USD consolidating ina 1.28 t0 1.29 during Europe. Dealers noting that the 2-yr U.S/German spread has widened over the last 24 hours to around 107bp. Japan's ex Fin Min Sakakibara noted that JPY could rise to 80 against USD over the next More...
A convincing victory by Barak Obama propelled the dollar higher against all the majors except the yen as currency traders bet a that a new US administration will be able to better handle the growing financial and economic crisis gripping the world’s num More...
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, rebounding from a big fall in the previous session, as Democrat Barack Obama sealed victory in the U.S. presidential election. More...
Obama won a big victory in th U.S. Tueasday. His party gained strong majorities in the House and Senate, but did not get filibuster-proof control of the Senate. That would have required 60 seats, but they won 54 seats. Two independent Senators will caucus More...
The red-hot Canadian dollar closed higher against the greenback on Tuesday for a sixth straight session, thanks to a combination of lofty commodity prices and expectations that interest-rate cuts will More...
The U.S. dollar tumbled on Tuesday, posting its biggest one-day slide against the euro since that currency's 1999 launch, as investors bet that global interest rate cuts and a credit market thaw would revive world growth. More...
Its being called the “Obama bounce”. Financial markets set up Tuesday for an Obama victory and rally on Wednesday. That suggests that the rally has already happened.
The results of the U.S. elections will likely be known early this evening. If the p More...
Appetite for risk gained strength from London into New York, backed by the DJIA being less volatile than usual and holding good gains into the NY afternoon (300pts) as the US public went to the polls. More...
In currencies, the bounce in risk appetite ahead of the US election results is being complemented by growing hunger for the expected European interest rate cuts later this week. Fitch noted in a recent report that it expects a severe global recession in 2 More...
November 4, 2008: Some of us might have been waiting for this day longer than others. Some of us may have been clamoring for it, while some of us may have been dreading its arrival. Either way, that day is here and a major change could be in order. That More...
The commodity currencies (AUD and NZD) are all trading sharply higher in line with the weaker USD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by -75bps to 5.25%. More rate reductions are in the pipeline. More...
The major central banks continue to act in concert as increasingly concern about deflation is being bandied about. This is curious because year/year inflation readings (see charts below) are recording levels well ABOVE the target ranges for those central More...
The dollar slipped broadly on Tuesday as global stock markets took on a brighter complexion, with investors anticipating aggressive interest rate cuts to help stimulate flagging economies and the U.S. election outcome. More...
In Currencies: The US election is causing some USD profit-taking ahead of the results later Tuesday. EUR/USD above 1.276 after testing the 1.2530 area during Asia. GBP/USD was rebounding from early losses of 1.5605 to probe back above the 1.587 neighborho More...
The RBA decision to cut by -75bps to 5.25% is being seen as an aggressive step and putting pressure on the BOE and ECB for significant ease om Thursday. There has been increasing deflationry talk creeping into economic commentaries recently as economic da More...
The Dow has lagged behind broad rallies in European and Asian equity markets, as investors are awaiting some confirmation as to the results for tomorrow’s election. The Dow finishes a relatively quiet day down by about 5 points, or about -0.06%. Such st More...
The Canadian dollar closed 2 percent higher against the U.S. dollar on Monday as traders felt the currency's steep October slide left it at more attractive levels.
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The dollar rose on Monday ahead of the U.S. presidential election as lingering concerns about financial markets and the world economy prompted investors to reduce risk and seek safety in dollar-denominated assets. More...
Dealers are looking ahead to the RBA decision at 03:30 GMT. Street estimates have been for a -50 bp rate cut to 5.50%, although forecasts for -75 and -100bps have been bouncing around.
A key focus Tuesday will be the results of U.S. elections. The presi More...
FX markets traded in a mostly muted fashion in London/NY, with unusually tight ranges on the DJIA (as of early afternoon NY) not encouraging aggressive positioning. The Oct manufacturing ISM was even worse than consensus of 41.0, at 38.9 (low since 1982) More...
Risk aversion has crept back into currency markets throughout the New York morning as traders fret over the prospects of global recession. The EU Commission's official declaration of a Euro Zone recession was compounded by softer PMI data from various Eur More...
The commodity currencies (AUD and NZD) are trading much higher vs. the USD today.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut rates at 03:30 GMT Tuesday. The general market expectation is for a -50bp cut in the cash rate target to 5.50%. A major U. More...
Gold is sharply higher this morning…up $20 bucks. Stocks globally are doing well and premarket SPU is bidding a bit higher. Oil is trying to turn higher.
Ebb in risk aversion means a flow of risk appetite by definition. And risk appetite may mea More...
The euro and high-yielding currencies rose against the dollar on Monday, while the yen retreated broadly as abating risk aversion lifted stocks. More...
The first decline in UK gdp since 1992 means that the economy is heading for recession. Growth contracted by 0.5% in Q3, after being flat in Q2. On balance, it is likely that growth will fall again in Q4 though not by as much as in Q3, which saw a bigger More...
Although Tokyo was on holiday, Asian equity markets put in a strong performance overnight with the Hang Seng rising 2.5%. The move provided a lift to all the high yielding currencies as risk appetite clearly improved at the start of the week. The EUR/USD More...
In Currencies: The CHF was weaker after comments from SNB's Roth over the weekend that the recent rise in CHF was 'a problem'. USD/CHF at 1.1570 after testing 1.1475 in Asia. EUR/CHF up 100 pips at 1.4860. The USD was off its worst lvels against the Europ More...
Dealers are uncertain about what the new month will bring with some fund managers now redeploying assets for a new fiscal year. Following the past one, odds are they will cautious about the new one. The months ahead are likely see weak data from most econ More...
This week we survey the economic landscape that the new president will inherit. It is a polite understatement to say that he will be getting a serious mess. In reality, the US goes to the polls this next Tuesday to elect a Janitor-in-Chief. He will face a More...
Dow ends the day up more than 140 points. The most important thing to take away from this is that prices did not dive in the 10 minutes approaching the closing bell. The dollar strengthens again today against all major currencies, except for the Japanese More...
The Canadian dollar rebounded to close higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday and secure its first weekly gain in five weeks as traders backed out of long U.S. dollar positions. More...
The U.S. dollar recorded its biggest monthly gain against a basket of currencies in more than 17 years on Friday, boosted by month-end demand and concerns about a deteriorating global economy. More...
In currencies, concerns deepened regarding slowing global growth headlined by weak German Retail Sales, cautious comments from the BoJ and seven-year lows in the Oct Chicago PMI, bringing risk aversion back into the market after several days of confidence More...
Financial markets are still under the spell of the credit crisis and its impact on the global economy. The extensive bank support measures announced by governments in the industrialized countries and numerous government capital injections have to some ext More...
The Forex markets continue to demonstrate exceptional price volatility. This instability has been driven by the recent sell-off in equity markets. A key factor in the unprecedentented instability of the markets has been the illiquidity of key markets. Whe More...
Price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, has clearly been rejected at the resistance imposed by a key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and an important prior support/resistance level More...
The EURUSD is moving randomly with a bias to the downside as the market digests the weaker German Retail sales last night, and prospects of a rate cut next week by the ECB. More...
Cross-border financial links are much tighter in a “globalized” world, no doubt. Thus, contagion is more than a four letter word. When these cross-border financial links are supercharged with leverage, as they are, it’s difficult to believe we’v More...
In Currencies: BOJ cut rates as expected earlier today, but dealers noting that the decision was not unanimous vote. Nikkei dropped by 5% and the JPY firmed on the ensuing risk aversion. More...
The pair has retraced nicely after the 1.2330-1.3300 move, it reached the 50%Fibonacci line yesterday and after a quick bounce it pushed lower closing in on the 61.8 Fib More...
The dollar was firmer against most major currencies on Friday, on expectations of large dollar demand for the month-end, while the yen was also buoyed as a fall in Asian share prices renewed risk aversion. More...
The BOJ cut rates as expected earlier today, but made the mistake of not making a unanimous vote on the policy move, and cutting by only -20bps to 0.30%. The deision was seen as a tepid one and the Nikkei fell by 5% and the JPY spiked higher. A better dec More...
The End of Day FXDD Video takes a look at the use of the 200 hour Simple Moving Average in the market today. It also previews the key economic releases scheduled for release tomorrow. More...
The Canadian dollar finished higher versus the U.S. dollar for the third straight session on Thursday as improved market sentiment continued to help pull the currency off its recent four-year low.
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The U.S. dollar rose against the yen on Thursday, but was little changed against the euro, after gains in world stock markets and an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday helped ease the recent flight into the dollar.
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The immediate focus now is the expected BOJ -25bp rate cut on Friday to 0.25%. This move was signaled in the Nikkei News late Tuesday. The BOJ is well known for consensus building before its policy moves.
Monthend volatility is expected to continue thro More...
The return of risk appetite during the Asia and early European session weighed on the carry-related pairs, with volatility remaining a big factor as a brutal October winds down. The better-than-expected US GDP reading helped the greenback decouple from it More...
Does the ‘establishment of temporary reciprocal currency arrangements’ mean anything to you?
Yeah, it kind of went by me in a blur the first time I read it. Basically, this has become one of the side shows for the Federal Reserve. They cut their be More...
The commodity currencies (AUD and NZD) are relatively steady vs. the USD today. The USD/CAD is having another one of those days. It is down sharply, presumably due to end of month flows. Trade in this pair has become dysfunctional.
Japanese investors co More...
In Currencies: The appetite for risk resurfaced in Asia as evident by the surge in the Far East equities and firmer Carry-related pairs. USD remained closely tied to the performance of equity markets as higher equity prices viewed as a USD and JPY negativ More...
The dollar fell against the euro, sterling, and other high-yielding currencies on Thursday after an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve helped to cool extreme risk aversion and supported European shares. More...
Volatility monthend tomorrow in sight is the major theme. Fed decision yesterday to cut by 50bps should not have been a factor nor its gloomy economic view as both were as expected.
Fed made a total of 120bln available in swaps line to four well capital More...
The Fed decided to yield to popular opinion today by cutting rates by 50bp. This widely expected decision has brought rates down to the historically low levels of 1.0%. This strikes as an interesting correlation between Fed cuts from 2000-2003, which even More...
The U.S. dollar posted its biggest one-day fall in 23 years on Wednesday, with the Federal Reserve delivering an interest-rate cut, easing investor concern about the world economy and reducing the need to repatriate dollars from riskier markets. More...
The Canadian dollar rallied more than 3 U.S. cents higher on Wednesday as a jump in prices for key commodities and an extended rebound in equity markets lifted the currency to its highest level in a week. More...
The US Fed cut its funds target by 50bp to 1.0% following this week’s FOMC meeting. The statement noted that the economy had slowed markedly, in particular due to weaker consumer spending, while inflation was likely to moderate. The Fed noted More...
The focus of trade Wednesday in North America was on the Fed decision due in mid-afternoon. At its meeting the central bank decided to cut the 1.50% Fed Funds target by 50bps to 1.00%. As expected, the central bank also signaled future ease More...
Price action on GBP/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has rebounded in a major way for the last couple of days. Among other catalysts of this rebound, traders’ expectations of potential dollar More...
In currencies, traders are closely watching for coordinated action by central banks around the globe. The ball got rolling yesterday after a Nikkei report suggested that the BoJ was considering cutting rates in half. More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are up shaply vs. the USD. USD/CAD has spiked higher. Trade in this pair has become dysfunctional. It appears its lack of liquidity has started to feed on itself. Selling pressure on the other two commodity curr More...
Buy the rumor of a 1% Fed Funds and sell the news? Hmmm….Maybe today’s better than expected US durable goods orders will neutralize that in here.
The key question: How long will this “correction” last? Will the one-day correction make it to tw More...
Odds are the Federal Reserve will cut its target rate for Fed Funds by -50bps to 1.00% later today. An easing of policy has already been signaled by Fed Chairman Bernanke. We had felt the Fed would ease by only -25bps to reserve a couple of bullets for fu More...
The yen rose broadly on Wednesday, recouping steep falls seen the previous day with global recession fears keeping investors in a jittery mood, despite improving equity market sentiment. More...
In Currencies: The USD is softer against the majors (EUR, GBP, CHF and JPY) in response to the interest rate cut expectations at the FOMC later today. Also some technical factors causing some medium term macro players to cover recent positions in USD and More...
Forex markets remain closely tied to the performance of U.S. share markets. The late Tuesday spike in U.S. share prices drove the USD lower, and that soft tone has carried over into today.
The Nikkei spiked higher today. Other Asian bourses were mixed. More...
The biggest event risk this week is undoubtedly the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Now more than ever, the Fed’s decision could turnaround the currency and equity markets. More...
The yen suffered its biggest daily fall versus the U.S. dollar since 1974 on Tuesday as a sharp rebound in global equities sparked a tentative recovery in risk appetite. More...
The Canadian dollar rallied off a four-year low to close slightly higher versus the U.S. dollar in a choppy session on Tuesday during which investors flocked to the currency as equity markets rallied. More...
he improvement in risk appetite seen late in yesterday’s session extended to offshore trade, to the great benefit of yen crosses but no clear movement in the USD. The Dow rose more than 500pts in afternoon trade, recovering from jitters after US consume More...
All the markets remain closely tied to the performance of U.S. share markets. Tuesday was certainly a unique session with a squeeze on VW shorts in Germany driving its price and the DAX up sharply.
Also, Asian bourses have gained and European exchanges More...
After a remarkable plunge last week in the USD/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, price action has finally made a major rebound during overnight trading as of Tuesday morning in New York More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are mostly higher vs. the USD. USD/CAD is about steady. Selling pressure on the commodity currencies has eased as carry trade unwinds have slowed.
The RBA has been interving in the forex markets since last Fri More...
Editors Note: Warning to gold lovers, conspiracy nuts, and US haters. This rant you may want to avoid.
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The conspiracy crowd is working overtime these days.
Many “deep thinkers” among the gold crowd still spout conspiracy stuff on a More...
In currencies: The currency price action took its signal from the closing hour of Japanese trading. The carry-related pairs gained momentum as risk appetite for equities increased during the final hour Nikkei trading. EUR/JPY surged to 120.50 from lows of More...
The yen backed away from recent 13-year highs against the dollar on Tuesday as rebounding stock markets and the threat of official intervention halted the Japanese currency's broad surge. More...
GBP USD has bounced of the year's low formed last Friday at 1.5265; after a failed attempt to break through we witnessed a slow move upwards that seems to accelerate. More...
As noted in our Far East open comments, on Monday the performance of U.S. share markets had not been stellar, but once again sellers in N.Y. did not pile onto overseas weakness. More...
The massive reversal in the fortunes of Nikkei, which staged a furious late session rally to end up more than 6% on the day helped to stabilize the currency markets, lifting the EUR/USD back above the 1.2500 figure in early European trade.After probing 26 More...
After the sharp volatility in the currency and equity markets during the Asian and European trading sessions, the US session was relatively quiet up until the last 10 minutes of trading. For most of the US session, stocks oscillated between positive and n More...
The Canadian dollar closed at its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in more than four years on Monday as uncertainty about the global economy weighed on the commodity-linked currency.
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The dollar and yen advanced on Monday as fears of global recession prompted investors to abandon risky assets, boosting both currencies that were sold to finance these investments. More...
A relatively slow news day in the US and inconclusive price action on Wall Street saw the USD retreat from its early London strength. US new home sales were better than expected, posting a monthly rise in September, providing some passing support to equit More...
The performance of U.S. share markets was not stellar Monday, but once again they did not pile onto overseas weakness heading into N.Y. trading.
The G7 set the stage for forex intervention early in the day Monday as it voiced its concerns about the rece More...
Since the second peak of the double-top high was hit in mid-July, price on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, has plummeted drastically, with only one major correction in September. More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all trading lower, as the financial markets probe for some sort of stability.
The RBA intervened in the forex markets on Friday and Monday to support the unit. The problem is that retail carry trade invest More...
Ahhh, let’s see ... recent buzz words in the investor vernacular have been risky assets, subprime, inflation, decoupling, current account, globalization ... and the list goes on.
The newest buzz word to make the list: deleveraging.
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A shot at the Resistance at 1.17 has failed once again. The pair rose only to face Resistance at 1.1714 and a fall since then has found some Support at 1.16. The day ahead could see the pair slip furt More...
The preliminary estimate last week showed that the UK economy contracted by 0.5% in Q3 compared with the previous quarter. This represents the first contraction in output since Q2 1992 and the biggest quarterly fall since Q4 1990. The market consensus vie More...
The yen rallied on Monday despite the Group of Seven singling out excessive volatility in the Japanese currency, while the dollar hit a two-year high against the euro as investors scrambled to shed riskier investments. More...
In Currencies: G7 express deeper concern over Yen rally || Japan Fin Min Sugimoto stated that officials would continue to watch currency markets with great interest; BOK cuts by record 75bp || Indian Rupee hits fresh all-time lows versus USD near 50.18. E More...
Risk aversion reigned supreme once again in the currency markets at the start of a new week as Nikkei dropped another 6%, USDJPY strengthened further and the G-7 finance ministers became seriously alarmed with the volatility in the markets. The finance mi More...
The G7 has set the stage for forex intervention as they have voiced their concerns about the recent JPY volatility. One problem they face is that this is not a speculative move into the JPY. It is the unwinding of a decade long structural move into carry More...
On the top of my trading checklist is to identify the type of market you are trading. Is it a trend, sideways, range, congestion, consolidation, or liquidating market? More...
Contrary to the some people’s belief, the US equities did not crash today. When S&P futures hit its limit down levels before the US markets opened and Dow futures dropped 5 percent, some media outlets were touting the possibility of circuit breakers kic More...
The Canadian dollar's free-fall against the U.S. dollar extended into a sixth-straight session on Friday, as a feeling of inevitability about a global recession undercut support for the commodity-linked currency, pushing it briefly to its weakest since Se More...
The U.S. dollar surged to two-year peaks versus a basket of currencies on Friday as dismal economic data from Europe reinforced fears of a global recession, adding to a selling frenzy on world stock markets. More...
Though we luckily have not had the experience, and the physical pain is obviously different, this move in the dollar today seems to us the psychological equivalent to being chomped on by a 20 ft. long white shark. Blam! Right from out of the blue depths More...
The dollar and the yen in particular surged this week. The US currency gained almost 6% against the euro to around 1.26, and the yen more than 14% to 116JPY per euro. The pound sterling, the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar also plummeted by a More...
The carry-related trades displayed dramatic price movements on Friday. One hedge fund manger noted that JPY-related flows have been rippling around the globe in recent trading sessions, whereas previously the flows had originated from Australia via the AU More...
The volatility in Forex markets in the latest week has been without precedent. This instability has been driven by the sell-off in equity markets and declining liquidity. One of the epicenters of trade has been an unwiding of a decade-long accumulation of More...
The yen shot to multi-year highs versus the dollar and euro on Friday, as tumbling global stock markets intensified risk aversion, crystallising investor fears on the possibility of a prolonged global recession. More...
In Currencies: market encountered unprecedented volatility in today's session. The risk aversion theme in currencies went into overdrive as carry-related pairs exhibited annual price movements in a matter of hours.
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Global equity markets were in full panic mode tonight with Nikkei dropping nearly 10% while European bourses were hammered from the open by relentless one way selling. The decline was triggered by a sharp profit warning from Sony which suggested that a to More...
The stage has been set for another coordinated rate cut. The focus of monetary policy now is still on the BOE ans ECB. Both have badly bungled policy recently. The problem is that psychologically a rate cut would likely not help much at this juncture. More...
Not only did I take a double take but a triple and than quadruple take when I walked in and looked at the screen. After yesterday's close, it looked like the market might take a pre-weekend breather but liquidating markets are rarely logical More...
Yesterday's triangle on EURUSD played nicely, after the pair retested one more time the support zone it moved slowly higher and got very close to the 1.3000 resistance. In today's Asian session we're seeing EURUSD approaching once again the base at 1.2730 More...
EUR/USD setup for 1.30 happened quicker than expected. Now, 1.2940 needs to hold to keep the risk on 1.30, local support is below there at 1.2885-05. Maybe the market finally takes a breather but have to get through EZ data. More...
In the face of today’s 200 point positive and negative swings in the Dow, it could be argued that the US dollar has been relatively stable if you only look at the daily change of the 3 major currency pairs. More...
The Canadian dollar closed slightly lower against the U.S. dollar on Thursday but managed to rally sharply from a 4-year low touched early in the session when investors opted to liquidate riskier assets in favor of the greenback. More...
The dollar was lower on Thursday, after earlier climbing to a fresh two-year high against the euro and a basket of currencies, after aggressive dollar selling by Brazil's central bank helped lend some stability to emerging market currencies, analysts said More...
Pretty much as expected, trading largely was cautious on Thursday. It appeared that the recent volatility in key USD pairs has sent many market participants to the sidelines. We suggested earlier that one has to wonder if the selling climax might be appro More...
Anxiety regarding the impact of the crisis on emerging markets is driving currency trading. Today's concerns are focusing on the Baltic region, specifically on declining credit quality. But the dominant theme remains the slowing global economy, which is w More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are trading mixed. The CAD still has not fully recovered from the BOC rate cut Tuesday and the promise of more. The AUD has fallen with a lag. More...
Trading appears to be off to a calmer start heading into N.Y. today. The Nikkei closed down sharply again today but it was well of its worst levels of the session. One has to wonder if the selling climax might be approaching its conclusion for equities. S More...
Another wild and volatile ride in Asian trade today, as USD/JPY plummeted through the 9700 figure after Nikkei index dipped briefly below the 8000 level. However, Japanese equities ended the session a bit firmer only –2.5% for the day and pulled carry t More...
The dollar edged up on Thursday, staying close to two-year highs against the euro and a basket of currencies as investors continued to cut exposure to risk on fears of a looming global recession. More...
Dollar bulls continue to take the markets by the horns, driving the British pound to a 5 year low and the Euro below 1.28. Deleveraging and risk aversion have been the primary catalysts for the strength in the low yielders (US dollar and Japanese Yen) but More...
The Canadian dollar was whacked to its lowest level versus the U.S. dollar in more than three years on Wednesday as softer oil prices and a surge in the greenback combined to knock the currency below 80 U.S. cents. More...
The U.S. dollar jumped to a two-year high on Wednesday as a deteriorating global economy and concern that financial market stability is still too far away spurred investors to liquidate risky assets. More...
Lenin and Trotsky agreed on a strategy for the socialist revolution in Russia – by any means necessary. With developed capitalist economies running headstrong into nationalizing key industries starting but not ending with banking under the too big, too More...
A sharp decline in the Nikkei Wednesday saw another unwinding of leveraged trades in many centers. These flows saw the JPY advance and many (but not all) of the carry trade vehicles decline. More...
USD Index was curiously quiet and range-bound in London/NY after brutal price action in Asia-Pacific trade Wed, even paying little attention to heavy losses on Wall Street. More...
Recession fears have definitively gone global, with shrinking guidance figures from corporations driving down equity indices in a negative feedback loop. European pairs are falling in relation to the JPY. More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are trading mixed. The CAD has not recovered from the BOC rate cut yesterday and the promie of more. The kiwi has suffered as well. More...
Drastically bearish price action within the last few days on the EUR/USD has continued the steep downtrend in the pair that has prevailed since the second peak of the long-term double top was reached More...
I received an email yesterday, from a very smart man who happens to be a professor of sciences in one our top institutions. He wrote: “Been stunned by the number of free market folks who squeal for interventions. I am appalled at the looting.” Free More...
As noted yesterday, chart levels, unless major points, lose significance the farther you go out in time, which increases the significance of pivotal big figures. However, market has sliced through these (e.g. 1.30, 1.28) like Swiss cheese although 1.28 wa More...
Globally, the central banks are now finally all just about on the same page. Inflation targeting remains the goal of most if not all central bankers. But they are now worried about the risk of deflation, not inflation. Central bankers are increasingly wor More...
EURUSD, along side the other majors has been trading USD strength and has covered over 500 points in the last 24 hours. The pair failed to trigger our inverted head and shoulders breaking through every support level in sight and pushing well beyong 1.3000 More...
In Currencies: The session continued to see some sharp moves in all types of pairs from USD related, commodity related, European-related and carry-related. Tough to gauge who was leading this volatility but the comments from BOE's King's comments on Tuesd More...
There is nothing more difficult than for leveraged traders to try to pick bottoms in a liquidating market. New lows often trigger fast liquidations. Hungary has moved into the cross-hairs of the hedge fund raiders now. There is also talk of counter-party More...
EUR/USD hit a low of 1.2735 while GBP/USD fell though the 1.6200 figure - its lowest level in 5 years – as panicky investors in Asia liquidated positions in a flurry of indiscriminate selling. More...
The dollar soared to a two-year high against the euro and a basket of currencies on Wednesday as a worsening global economic outlook prompted more investors to liquidate risky assets in favour of the U.S. currency. More...
With the exception of the Japanese Yen, the US dollar has rallied against every major currency. The settlement of the Lehman CDS auction, the new Money Market Investor Funding Facility, the drop in oil prices and the sell-off in equities have all contribu More...
The Canadian dollar skidded toits lowest close in more than three years versus the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as the Bank of Canada cut its key overnight interest rate and suggested more rate cuts may More...
The dollar climbed to its highest since February 2007 against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as investors bet that interest rates outside the United States will fall sharply to shore up global growth.
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Tuesday markets in the U.S. had a risk aversion fell to them although there seemed to be no explicit focus. The USD responded positively to the Bernanke blessing of significant fiscal stimulus Monday. Markets reward the currencies of countries who act agg More...
Despite further easing in money markets (3mth USD LIBOR -22bp to 3.83%, lowest since 26 Sep), there was still plenty for US equity markets to worry about and expectations of USD repatriation to close trades, boosting USD ndex in London/NY. More...
In currencies, the greenback firmed to 19-month highs against the euro today as the pair tested below the 1.3150 level. Overall the USD continues to respond positively to Fed Chairman Bernanke's endorsement of a second fiscal stimulus package in Congressi More...
New Zealand's Turn Larry Greenberg Tuesday October 21, 2008 - 15:51:31 GMT
Markets look for a 100-bp cut, although a reduction of 75 basis points is possible at 20:00 GMT Wednesday. More...
So what’s changing?
Well, credit market indicators have improved. The first signs of improvement came as last week finished up. And so far this week the improvement has stuck.
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In Currencies: The cross currents and overall irrational price movements seem to be the norm in currencies at this time. Dealers noting that the US-German sprad relationship on the government 2-year note is perhaps the best indicator. The EUR/USD tested t More...
No respite for weary euro bulls in early European trade tonight as the battered unit hit a 19 month low against the dollar amidst rising fears that the regions economy may be severely impacted by the recent turmoil in the credit markets. More...
The USD continues to respond positively to the Bernanke blessing of significant fiscal stimulus yesterday in Congressional testimony. Markets ae rewarding the currencies of countries who take aggressive actions. More...
The dollar hit its highest in 1-1/2 years versus the euro on Tuesday and held near 16-month highs against a basket of currencies fuelled by ongoing demand from banks picking up the U.S. unit for their funding needs. More...
For the past few weeks, currencies have trailed equities, but today we have only seen limited appreciation in the high yielding currency pairs despite the 400 point rally in the Dow More...
The Canadian dollar fell versus the U.S. dollar on Monday as a looming Bank of Canada rate cut
on Tuesday coupled with comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to shake the currency More...
The U.S. dollar rallied on Monday despite an improvement in risk appetite and a drop in interbank lending rates as companies bought the U.S. currency to meet their operational needs.
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Risk aversion eased. LIBOR rates turned lower (3mo USD 4.06%, -36bp), after reportedly JPM banged the one month yield down last Friday. Levels are very lofty. More...
In currencies, dealers were a bit perplexed by the FX price action during a session marked by considerable volatility. Some dealers noted that there is too much focus on equity correlation since the falling trend in three-month USD Libor fixing suggests d More...
Interesting! It seems the chances for another Asian-style financial crisis lingers and is rising (we are already seeing it in S. Korea; chart below). This is surprising since it appeared the entire region was well position to whether a downturn in the m More...
In Currencies: The Carry-related pairs regained an appetite for risk helped by firmer Asian and European equities. The early indication that the LIBOR rates would continue their slow decent suggested that the recent USD buying spree could ease as well. More...
The prospects for UK economic growth have deteriorated sharply in the last two months. The main reason for this relate to the higher than expected level of price inflation which has hit consumer More...
GBPUSD has moved slowly higher along the support trendline on Friday and in early Asian trading hours this week; the triangle is intact and a break outside this pattern could be the signal we've been waiting for. More...
Risk aversion (or the lack thereof) continues to be the dominant there for forex trading. This has been a relatively quiet weekend with only the Dutch Bank, Ing, getting a capital infusion from its government. Word is that LIBOR rates have continued to ea More...
The Nikkei staged a late day rally as declines in short tram money market rates and Korean government guarantees of $100 Billion of foreign exchange loans boosted confidence in the financial sector in the region. More...
Forex markets primarily have been biding their time as they wait for some sort of clarity on the bailout programs for the international financial system. The barometer of the health of the system remains the performance of major equity indices. Weakness i More...
Do you ever feel like you are a yo-yo being bounced up and down on a string? This is what it felt like this past week trying to trade the forex market off of stocks. For those new to this business, you probably think the forex market always trades off sto More...
Dow trading today does not extinguish the prevalence of extremely large swings in equity prices. We have seen it for much of this month, and we are seeing it again today. After opening down more than 2.0%, the Dow rallies back, breaking the 9000 level, an More...
The Canadian dollar ended lowerversus the U.S. dollar on Friday due to nagging uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy, but a rally in stock markets and commodities help to cushion More...
The U.S. dollar rose against the euro on Friday, while the yen gained in volatile trading, as financial distress and economic weakness beyond the United States persisted, giving the greenback a safe-haven bid. More...
Slumping housing data and the lower-than-expected University of Michigan confidence data held back equity markets in early trading, but optimism has returned mid-morning as markets push back into positive territory. Libor has continued its incremental dec More...
Much like some other dollar-based pairs as of Friday (10/17/2008), price action on the AUD/USD daily chart, as shown, has formed a large inverted pennant/triangle formation More...
EUR-USD began the week on a firmer footing, peaking at 1.377 on Tuesday – about 3 cents higher than at the end of the previous week. On Sunday, leaders of the eurozone countries agreed in principle on More...
Hodgepodge Black Swan Capital Friday October 17, 2008 - 13:28:33 GMT
An L-shape recession is our guess
Global shift in consumer sentiment and an unknown quantity of toxic paper still buried make us believe any recession will be more L-shaped rather than V-shaped recession.
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I am writing this article because I am tired of seeing estimates that 80% (some have it as high as 90%) of retail traders in the forex market lose money. I have no idea what the proper percentage is for this estimate but I do know that some of it can be a More...
The yen rose on Friday as stocks gave up much of their early gains, highlighting an ongoing slump in risk demand due to fears of a global recession, which is seen as inevitable as nations try to salvage their banking systems. More...
In Currencies: USD was mostly firmer against the majors with exception to the JPY. The continued theme of risk aversion is likely to keep the recent patten of the EUR/USD and USD/JPY trading in tandem with equity prices. More...
In the wake of Dow’s strong rally yesterday that saw the index swing 800 points intra-day to close +300 on the session, both Asian and European shares followed suit with bounces of their own. However, More...
Markets appear to be off to a quiet start today heading into the weekend. Prior end of week periods (late Thursday and Friday) had been seeing forced yearend liquidations by hedge fund managers, but that seems not to be the case today. The end of October More...
The sentiment in the currency and equity markets have been oscillating between hope and fear on a near hourly basis. Having been down as much as 379 points intraday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 400 points. USD/JPY and other carry trades fol More...
The dollar had its best day against the yen in seven months in choppy trading on Thursday, boosted by sharp gains in U.S. stocks as risk aversion waned amid a stream of measures to help ease a global credit crisis.
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The Canadian dollar rose versus the U.S. dollar on Thursday, but only after sharp slides pegged
to lower oil prices and global economic concerns were countered with waves of buying when it neared More...
The lack of a firm lead from the DJIA left USD Index little changed in NY afternoon trade. The Dow had fallen >350pts early (hurt by the huge fall in US Sep industrial production) but recovered to flat to a touch weaker, taking many currency pairs with it More...
The lack of a firm lead from the DJIA left USD Index little changed in NY afternoon trade. The Dow had fallen >350pts early (hurt by the huge fall in US Sep industrial production) but recovered to flat to a touch weaker, taking many currency pairs with it More...
The recent patten of the EUR/USD and USD/JPY trading in tandem continued again on Thursday. As long as the correlations work, forex markets are willing to go with the flow.
Earlier, following another tumble in U.S. shares Wednesday afternoon in the U.S. More...
Equity markets are still desperately searching for something positive to hold onto as the painful process of pricing in recession goes on. Following a brief rally after the opening bell, indices quickly turned south again, jolting the VIX to fresh record More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are trading mixed. The AUD and NZD have improved on talk Asian central banks will be uping the amount of these currencies in their baskets. The CAD is weaker as it often suffers on soft equity prices.
Repatria More...
After dropping consistently and rapidly over the past two months with only one significant pullback, price action on the EUR/JPY daily chart, has just pulled back once again only a couple of days ago More...
Looks like someone popped the champagne cork too early.
I say that because stocks made short order of Monday’s record climb. On Wednesday, the Dow dropped the most in 21 years. The plunge of over 700 points erased over a trillion dollars in market ca More...
When policymakers wade, or more like dive, into private markets like they have in the last few days, there are sure to be unintended consequences that will at times raise doubts about the efficacy of the rescue. More...
The dollar rose against the yen on Thursday on falling share prices as the possibility that the banking sector may be salvaged did little to quell worries that the global economy is teetering on the verge of recession. More...
The European session began on a note that was characterized by the downward spiral exhibited in late US and Asian trading. Economic growth concerns were cited for this recent round of equity weakness that originated with the release of the US Beige book r More...
The pair reached the previous high at 1.1490 and formed a double top on the 4 hour charts, the high is also a resistance level provided by the upsloping trendline we've mentioned in some previous posts. More...
So much for stabilization. After Dow’s more than 700 point plunge yesterday, the Nikkei followed with a 1000 point drop of its own recording the worst decline since the 1987 crash. The realization by Asian investors that global economic demand is likely More...
Following another tumble in U.S shares Wednesday afternoon in the U.S., Asian bourses followed with sharp declines today. European indices are weaker at this hour. There was no clear catalyst for the decline on Wednesday. The day saw weaker than expected More...
The currency and equity markets were hit by another wave of liquidation as weak economic data and a pessimistic Beige Book report highlighted the need for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. More...
The dollar rose against the euro for the first time this week on Wednesday, while the yen gained on renewed concerns the U.S. government's $250 billion proposed injection into troubled banks may do little to heal a bruised financial sector. More...
The Canadian dollar fell sharply versus the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as a slide in the price of oil, a key Canadian export, dragged the currency down by 2 percent and stripped it of the gains recorded More...
Safe haven or repatriation demand drove USD Index higher once more as the DJIA opened weaker and sank -500pts by the NY afternoon. Poor US data (retail sales, NY Fed manufacturing sentiment survey) helped fuel the selling of equities and risk FX. Fed chie More...
The markets remain unsettled, although some modest improvements have been seen in the locked up LIBOR markets. Everybody is waiting for LIBOR lending to loosen up. It is said that banks are still waiting for rhe various bailout provisions to be IMPLEMENTE More...
Price action on the GBP/USD daily chart, as shown, has been making what could be considered an upside correction or retracement after hitting a 5-year low late last week More...
Risk aversion has returned in force today with European and North American equities exhibiting steep losses. In currencies the attention is turning to emerging market currencies as the wrath of the global credit crisis reverberates further and further bey More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are trading mixed. The AUD is weaker as it has traded another volatile session. The kiwi is a touch higher. The CAD has weakened after PM Harper returned to office with more seats in Parliament, though still not More...
The Die Seems Cast Black Swan Capital Wednesday October 15, 2008 - 14:42:09 GMT
Recession dead ahead it seems. So it’s just a matter of waiting in the tall grass for the right time to sell the dollar, right? Well, we don’t think so.
More...
For now, it could face Resistance at 1.7620-35 and once above it, at 1.7725, which happens to be the 50% retracement of the fall from 1.8671 (25-Sep) to 1.6779 (10-Oct). The pair might not see...... More...
The euro and the dollar fell against a broadly stronger yen on Wednesday as euphoria from government plans to recapitalise hobbling banks ebbed and focus turned to how the bailouts would impact the global economy. More...
Global equity markets retrenched after two days of strong rallies, pulling high yielding currencies down with them as a touch of risk aversion returned to the foreign exchange market and both dollar and yen firmed. For the first time in more than a month More...
In Currencies: The price action was mixed and choppy for the most part in Europe today as the focus remained on the performance of equity markets and sentiment regarding global growth. Softer equity markets for the most part are helping the JPY More...
The H&S pattern is clearly visible on the 4 hour chart below, the pair formed a lower low and found resistance at the 1.3775 area and now it should form the right shoulder, one could try to pinpoint the new low and start a long position but the classic wa More...
The focus of forex trading remains on the performance of equity markets as the primary indicator of confidence in the global economy. The JPY is driven by stocks an so is the EUR/JPY. The EUR/USD is t More...
The feel good factor in the markets was relatively short-lived with the 400 point rally in the Dow this morning turning into a more than 76 point decline by the end of the US trading session. More...
The Canadian dollar dropped against the greenback on Tuesday as commodity prices eased and concerns about a U.S. recession persisted even as the U.S. government unveiled a fresh plan to shore up banks More...
In case you did not notice, the economic ideologues in the White House and Treasury hoisted the white flag of surrender on Austrian economics in the last week. More...
The details of the U.S. bailout package today held no surprises as most had been leaked in advance. The focus once again was on the performance of the equity markets. The performance of U.S. equities were a disappointment as they seemed to have a “sell More...
Of course we wouldn’t ask the question if we didn’t believe the chances are good. But, the major caveat is the same we’ve shared before—in a fundamentally-driven market (or major event-driven) the technical analysis takes a back seat. So, we do More...
Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has made an upside turn after having bottomed out at a one-year-plus low of around 1.3260 on Friday of last week. More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) have surrendered their strong early gains. Early euphoria in U.S. shares has evaporated and resulted in a USD rebound. Canada sees a national election today.
Repatriation demand from Japan seems to have tapere More...
USDCHF has traded above and below an upsloping trendline connecting higher lows and higher highs, and has found resistance/support atparallel trendlines thus trading inside a small bullish channel since the beginning of the month. More...
The markets are awaiting details of the U.S. bailout package today before the opening of equity trading. President Bush is scheduled to speak at about 12:00 GMT and then Secretary Paulson will appear at 12:30 GMT with more specifics. Word is that the gove More...
The case for a bounce in equities this week was strong following the Lehman CDS Auction and the possibility of new measures from the G7 and G20 nations in Washington this weekend. New guarantees and a host of other announcements have helped to stabilize t More...
The U.S. dollar had its worst day against the euro in three weeks on Monday, while the yen weakened broadly, as credit conditions eased after major central banks unleashed a slew of measures to More...
Last week there was a huge cooperative among the world’s central banks to cut interest rates. Central Banks in the US, UK, Sweden, Eurozone, Switzerland, China, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong all got involved. More...
Recent price action on the USD/CHF, a daily chart of which is shown, appears to have exhausted much of the upward momentum that has characterized this pair in the last several weeks More...
EZ officials surprised global markets today by agreeing to a coordinated program of stabilization including public guarantees of Interbank lending until December 31, 2009 and the right of member states to take preference equity positions in banks, effecti More...
The euro shot up on Monday, pulling away from a 1-1/2-year low against the dollar as a pledge by European governments to rescue banks from collapse plugged a deluge of selling in the single European currency.
More...
In currencies: The USD and carry-related pairs retraced some of their storng price movements seen last week on the bank of the UK and European bailout plans. EUR/USD back above the 1.36 handle while EUR/JPY probe the 137 area. EUR/CHF testing the 1.54 nei More...
EURJPY has been on an incredible strong down movement for the best part of the last couple of months, but we still have noticed what seems to look like a reversal pattern on the daily charts, considering the strength of the bearish movement we can only ex More...
Riding the Tiger FX Solutions Monday October 13, 2008 - 02:29:29 GMT
Forex markets mostly have been a side show to the turmoil seen in the money and equity markets over the past week. Dealers have generally been taking a low profile as equity markets around the globe have melted down. Equity traders are concerned about the More...
I have been writing for almost a year that the next shoe to drop on US banks would be commercial construction lending. Today we look at some hard numbers. We look across the pond to sort out the problems in Europe. We look at the consequences of the losse More...
The price action in the equity markets today was nothing short of impressive. We literally had a W shaped trading day where stocks opened down 600 points, rallied back into positive territory, More...
The U.S. dollar surged to a 15-month high against a basket of other major currencies on Friday as plunging stocks and persistently tight credit markets prompted investors to scramble for cash in the world's reserve currency. More...
The Canadian dollar closed atits lowest level since March 2007 against the U.S. dollar on Friday, taking its biggest one-day slide in nearly 38 years, as fears of a global recession and slumping More...
Recent dramatic bullish moves on the USD/CAD, have shot price up past several key resistance zones, reaching all the way up to the major 1.1970-2.000 resistance region before finally backing off More...
The currency market was reduced to a sideshow during the New York morning as panic gripped markets, driven by the vicious cycle of continuing deleveraging, margin calls and declining fundamentals. More...
By any measure Paulson and Co have made two significant policy mistakes in confronting the banking and soon to be economic crises. Paulson let Lehman fall putting a premium on moral hazard and underestimating the interconnectedness of this investment ban More...
I guess that little coordinated interest rate cut thing didn’t do the trick.
But don’t despair citizens. Right now he’s strapping on his cape to prepare for yet another episode of “The US Treasury Saves the World” news conference to explai More...
Global equity markets crashed in the wake of sharp declines in the DJIA yesterday with Nikkei dropping almost 10% as the index closed below the 8000 level for the first time since the mid 1980’s. More...
In Currencies: The CHF was broadly firmer on risk aversion flows against the major pairs. USD/CHF was off 100+ pips to test below the 12 level; EUR/CHF was off almost 200 pips in early European trading at 1.5160. More...
The Japanese yen retreated from three-year highs against the euro but remained elevated in highly volatile trade on Friday, as unnerved investors unloaded risk on deep worries about the global financial system. More...
At one point, eliminating counter-party risk for financial institutions might have gone a long way to putting an end to the current financial crisis, but one has to wonder how much more damage has been done to the global economy over the past week by G7 a More...
The key barometer of European market sentiment so far on remains the performance of key equity indices. They are currently in a near meltdown mode following an abysmal performance late in the U.S. yesterday and a heavy sell off in the Far East today. More...
Another day, another plan from the US government that has failed to impress the markets. This morning, the Treasury said that they will be injecting capital directly into banks by taking an equity stake. In theory this announcement should give banks the p More...
The Canadian dollar fell for the sixth straight day against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as investors positioned themselves ahead of a big day for Canadian
economic data on Friday.
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The U.S. dollar edged higher again on Thursday as short term interest rates for dollars continued to rise on global money markets, despite coordinated efforts by many central banks this week to ease the credit crisis. More...
The upcoming weekend will be a long one for many U.S. markets. Equities will be open on Monday. It appears that those long shares just don’t want to take their chances on a disappointing G7 outcome. U.S. shares have tumbled again. Many are hoping for so More...
The commodity currencies (AUD and NZD) have traded sharply higher vs. the USD today. The Canadian dollar is substantially weaker.
Repatriation demand from Japan seems to have eased off the commodity currencies. More...
As the stock market goes, so goes the euro against the US dollar. Can it be that simple? Short answer is yes. Risk aversion right now is dollar positive... More...
EurUSd has formed a perfect triangle on the 4hours charts over the last couple of days, clearly marking the 1.3740 resistance level and a series of higher lows. More...
There is talk now that the U.S. government is now considering taking an equity stake in U.S. banks to support the financial system. This power was provided in the bailout program. One problem is that markets are becoming impatient with the bailout program More...
The key barometer of European market sentiment so far on Thursday remains the performance of key equity indices. They are currently higher but off their highs of the day. Dealers are focused on what will come out of the G7 meeting at the end of this week. More...
We have been literally begging the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to work together to stem the bleed in equities and they have finally done it (What is the Fed Waiting For? More...
The Canadian dollar lost moreground against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, falling below 90 U.S. cents for the first time since April 2007, as investors bet the Bank of Canada would slash interest rate More...
The yen rallied broadly on Wednesday, hitting its highest level in three years against the euro, on fears coordinated central bank rate cuts may not be sufficient to thaw the frozen credit markets. More...
lobal central banks coordinate policy and ease by 50bp. The world’s major central banks took a historic step today, easing benchmark rates by 50bp in a coordinated announcement at the start of US trading. More...
Wednesday started out with a meltdown in global equity markets before the U.S. open. The meltdown had followed the sharp sell-off in U.S. equities on Tuesday. The Nikkei tumbled by over 9% and other Asian bourses fell sharply in value. European bourses we More...
I am starting to think we are close to the end of the banking crisis or as I like to think it will be referred to in history, the end of the Bank Panic of 2008. More...
The Federal Reserve cut their benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points today.
And so did the European Central Bank ...
And so did the Swedish Riksbank ...
And so did the Bank of England ...
And so did the Bank of Canada …
More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all trading sharply weaker vs. the USD. The Aussie dollar and kiwi, while substantially weaker are well off their lows of the day. There is talk of repatriation demand from Japan weighing heavily on the comm More...
The price action in currencies, fixed income and equities match the historic central bank move. EUR/USD was trading in the mid-1.36 area as the European close approached. The focus has been all about the carry-related pairs after the extreme moves witness More...
The dollar fell against a basket of currencies on Wednesday after leading global central banks announced rate cuts in an effort to stem haemorrhaging markets engulfed in the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. More...
As feared, Dollar-Swiss dipped in the day to a low near 1.13. It has come off from a high near 1.1490. The 1.1295-80 region is an important Support. If that breaks, a further fall towards ....... More...
After reaching our target at 1.1350 the pair is now testing a resistance level formed by lower lows around the 1.3575/80 area that turned the last 24 hours price action into a triangle. More...
Global capital markets continued their synchronized meltdown despite the furious efforts of authorities to inject liquidity into the troubled banking sector, as investors dumped their equity positions on fears of a growing global economic slowdown and a p More...
In Currencies: Risk aversion and de-leveraging remained the overall theme as the JPY became the main catalyst. Dealers noting that meltdown in the Nikkei 225 Index has triggered repatriation flows. More...
The meltdown in equity markets following the sharp sell-off in U.S. equities is the major focus of the day. The Nikkei tumbled by over 9% and other Asian bourses have tumbled in value. Some say that South Korea could be the next Iceland. More...
It is all about the yen today as a meltdown in the Nikkei and resulting repatriation flows has sent it higher across-the-board, with offsets especially hitting the AUD and NZD. This has seen usd/yen fall below the pivotal 100 level. More...
The reaction to the U.K. recapitalization program for the banking system has dominated European trade early Wednesday. Equity markets have collapsed as the program favors bondholders over those with a More...
Before the US stock markets opened this morning, the Federal Reserve announced a plan to buy commercial paper directly from issuers in yet another attempt to unfreeze the credit markets. Although this led to a rally in US stocks, USD/JPY and other carry t More...
Fed comments hit USD. Markets were quick to pounce on comments from Fed Governor Bernanke that the “outlook to economic growth has worsened” and that Fed will “need to consider whether the current stance of policy remains appropriate.” More...
The Canadian dollar fell against a generally stronger U.S. dollar on Tuesday as weary investors avoided the commodity-linked currency due to concerns about fallout from the global financial crisis.
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Fed Chairman Bernanke has to be wondering what he has to do next. Equities are closing sharply lower after he signaled a Fed rate cut at its next meeting at the end of this month.
Word late Monday that the Fed has decided to take actions to support the More...
After having plunged over 700 pips within a single 24-hour period, price action on the AUD/USD daily chart, as shown, has currently begun consolidating within a limited range More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all trading significantly weaker vs. the USD.
Thr RBA rate cut of -100 bps early Tuesday was logical, because with a 7.00% cash rate target, it would have taken 5 calendar months (January Holiday) to get d More...
In currencies, the carry-related pairs focused their attention on the US and European financial fronts. The Fed's effort to address the lock-up in the giant commercial paper market, which has become a key bottleneck in the credit crisis, received an initi More...
We saw a significant degree of real and psychological capitulation yesterday in favor of the dollar. The driver for the buck continues to be risk (money back to the center to hide, we see it in the bond prices and soaring labor yield), global growth scre More...
Cable has once again dipped to a low of 1.7320 during the day after facing Resistance at 1.7600-50. 1.7320, the low today, is also where it had found Support earlier and could now lead to a rise .... More...
In a move that shocked the currency markets, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its benchmark interest rate by full 100bp from 7% to 6% fueling speculation that other G-11 Central Banks will follow suit and ease aggressively in the next several days.Th More...
Overall traders and dealers were wondering which market was the 'sideshow' as the currents continued to wreak their wrath this morning, but in a manner that was 'calmer' then Monday's price action. The UK banking sector was the focus More...
Has so far traded an inside day after 7 consecutive days of lower lows/lower highs. This suggests more of a two-way flow today as the market takes a breather. However, market will need to see higher lows/higher highs to suggest a pause. More...
Word late yesterday that the Fed is with the Treasury to develop a support for unsecured lending has helped the tone of the markets. Even prime credits are said not to have full access to the commercial Paper markets at the moment due to excess investor c More...
Deleveraging remains the theme today although equity markets at this hour appear to be a lot calmer than yesterday. The immediate focus is on the Bank of England policy decision on Thursday, especially after the RBA cut its cash rate target by 100bps earl More...
The euro rose on Tuesday on growing speculation that some central banks may follow a surprisingly big interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia and lower their own rates to stem economic deterioration. More...
USDCHF has pushed through the previous resistance levels and has topped around the 1.1485 area, the pair broke under the support trendline and the scenario looks almoust identical to what we had last week: after a quick move higher the pair breaking suppo More...
It has been an extremely volatile day in the currency markets with big figures (100 pip) moves in USD/JPY happening in a blink of an eye. The more than 4 percent decline in USD/JPY is the largest single day percentage drop in close to 10 years. More...
Panic continued to grip global markets in London/NY trade, with cash hoarding and attempts to preserve capital proving positive for USD Index as it punched to new highs dating to Aug07. More...
The U.S. dollar scaled a fresh 13-month peak versus the euro on Monday, while the yen surged broadly as investors dumped risky assets amid anxiety over the lack of a coordinated global response to the credit crisis. More...
The Canadian dollar fell to itsweakest level against the U.S. dollar since May 2007 on Monday as fears of more fallout from the global financial crisis froze money markets, putting a premium More...
Europe was the focal point on Monday. Folowing a high level meeting in Paris over the weekend, the lack of common European bank plan hit the confidence of markets. More...
In currencies the session was defined by record high levels of volatility and bewilderment. One dealer noted that the action was simply “the revenge of the carry trade.” More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all trading significantly weaker vs. the USD.
Dealers are looking ahead to an RBA rate cut of -25 to -50 bps early Tuesday. There are even a few outlier forecasts for a cut of -100bps. More...
Last week saw the release of the annual ‘Blue Book’, which looks at the UK’s national accounts data.
The latest release makes fascinating reading, though the publication will not be available until More...
The euro was pummelled against major currencies on Monday as concerns for European financial sector health increased without signs of a coordinated policy response, while the yen spiked as investors cut risk exposure. More...
In Currencies: USD gapped in the thin Sydney/ New Zealand period against the major pairs. EUR/USD closed at 1.3787 on Friday and opened in Tokyo at 1.3647 and tested as low as 1.3541 during the European morning. However, the session was marked by carry-re More...
With Europe the focal point, the U.S. financial bailout plan is on the back burner already. Dealers will be looking in coming days for the details of the U.S. program.
the focal point for trade early Monday has been on equity markets. Asian bourses tumb More...
Deleveraging is the name of the game today with Europe the focal point today. EUR investments financed in JPY and USD The EUR have the borrowers rushing for the door to buy back their funding currencies. This is still a liquidating market. This kind of a More...
USDCHF has already tested the resistance area around 1.1400 on Thursday and Friday but failed to push through, now we are looking at a perhaps third attempt to print a new high and close above. More...
The "Bailout Plan" was passed. Will it work? The answer depends on what your definition of "work" is. If by work you mean no more government intervention and no further costly programs and a functioning market, then the answer is no. But there are things More...
I think we are in the end game on the liquidity squeeze, even if it is a drawn out game. The Treasury and Fed are throwing the kitchen sink at the market. The Fed can now pay interest on bank reserves so no need for banks to hoard cash, and will allow the More...
The wait is over - the House of Representatives have finally passed the $700B bailout plan but the markets remain unconvinced that this is the right prescription for the credit crunch. The goal of Congress was to find a way to bolster confidence and unfor More...
The Canadian dollar suffered its biggest weekly decline in at least 38 years against the U.S. dollar this week as the passage by Congress of the $700 billion U.S. rescue package on Friday failed to persuade investors that the worst of the financial crisis More...
Price action on the USD/CHF daily chart, as shown, has just hit resistance at the level of the last major swing high, before retreating back down More...
Hodgepodge Black Swan Capital Friday October 3, 2008 - 13:14:49 GMT
Unemployment Rate and Dollar Cycles
In the chart below, we have overlaid the dollar bull and bear cycles on top of the unemployment rate. And given the last two cycles in the dollar i.e. bull from August 1991 to July 2001 and bear cycle from July 2001 t More...
The point that troubles us is that several rules are being changed in order to accomodate this plan - one such rule is the "mark to market" rule. Whether the "mark to market" rule has merit ..... More...
The dollar eased from the previous session's searing rally on Friday, but was poised for its best weekly gain versus the euro in the single currency's lifetime after the European Central Bank opened the door to rate cuts. More...
After another sharp decline in yesterday’s North American session that pushed it to new yearly lows, the EUR/USD spent a quiet night of consolidation trying to hold the 1.3800 level as traders prepared for the release of NFPs and the possible passage of More...
In Currencies: The USD encountered some retracement against the major pairs ahead of the US jobs report later today. The EUR/USD probed the 1.39 area before comments from ECBs' Trichet and Bini Smaghi. ECB's Trichet noting the ongoing market correction de More...
A major data point in a short while will be the release of the U.S. September employment report. The tipping point for traders would appear to be on which side of a decline of 100K in jobs the number breaks. More...
GBPUSD has pierced through the bearish channel we pointed out yesterday and if this scenario is to come to fruition the pair is starting a new swing movement, first potential target is the 1.8000 area More...
Even though the Senate has approved the newly revived bailout plan for the financial markets, equity traders are not convinced that the plan will be enough to rescue the US economy. More...
The Canadian dollar tumbled 1.7 percent against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as tight credit markets put a premium on the greenback and commodity prices fell on concerns that slowing global growth would undercut demand. More...
Risky assets were hit hard again overnight, as traders digested more bad economic news and credit markets remained under lockdown. The US bailout package remains a key risk for markets – while the US Senate voted in favour of the package yesterday, ther More...
The U.S. dollar surged to a near 13-month peak versus the euro on Thursday after the European Central Bank signaled it was ready for its first rate cut in five years as growth slows and price pressures abate. More...
The key focus for Friday will be House vote on the U.S. financial bailout program now scheduled for 10:00 EDT (14:00 GMT). Odds are that time will slip. The Congress rarely does anything on time. The bailout bill passed comfortably in the Senate late Wedn More...
Extremely bearish price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, has plunged a total of more than 1000 pips since the latest bear run began on September 23 More...
In currencies, the euro violated key technical levels in numerous currency pairs after the ECB danced around the topic of a potential interest rate cut, with dealers noting that the central bank has withheld "keywords" that would prepare the market for a More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are trading significantly weaker vs. the USD.
Dealers are looking ahead to an RBA rate cut of -25 to -50 bps next week. There are some outlier forecasts for a cut of -100bps. More...
I guess the European Central Bank is tired.
After pumping tens of billions of euros and dollars into its financial system over just the last two weeks, the ECB couldn’t muster up enough energy to cut rates today.
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Last night the US Senate passed the $700 Billion rescue package by 74-25 vote adding more than $100 Billion of additional tax cuts to businesses and individuals and temporarily increasing FDIC insurance from 100K to 250K. The bill will now go back to the More...
In Currencies: EUR/USD fell to 1-year lows at 1.3856 and approached it 6-year uptrend line at the 1.3810 area. The JPY maintained a firmer tone against both major currencies and commodity related pairs on continued risk aversion plays. There are over two More...
The U.S. financial bailout program passed comfortably in the Senate late Wednesday by a vote of 74 to 25. There was never much doubt that it would pass in that chamber. The focus is now back on the House, where the bill will be considered there on Friday. More...
The dollar neared a one-year high versus a basket of major currencies on Thursday after the U.S. Senate passed a $700 billion bank bailout plan, while the euro slid ahead of the European Central Bank's verdict on rates. More...
The EUR is trading broadly weaker today heading into the outcome of the ECB meeting today. There is little doubt the central bank made a mistake last month when it tightened policy after the prior policy meeting. A key cause for concern for dealers is the More...
Looking at the chart below we can see how interestingly GBPUSD has been trading for the past 5-6 weeks, every swing move has been confined in an nicely defined channel. More...
Hold your breath as trading could become very interesting over the next 24 hours. Compared to the price action in the beginning week, currencies have been relatively tame today as they wait for the Senate’s vote on the revived bailout plan this evening. More...
The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday in a slight rebound from the big losses of the previous session as investors awaited a key vote on the revised U.S. bailout plan for financial markets. More...
Global markets were volatile but without any real direction overnight, as they awaited progress on the revised US bailout package. The package is expected to be passed by the Senate when they vote later today, but it was the House of Representatives – d More...
The markets Wednesday waited all day for the Senate vote on the U.S. financial bailout plan. While the outcome of the Senate vote is not thought to be in doubt, presumably the bill will be a plan that the House can accept. The House cannot vote on the pka More...
The dollar maintained a firm tone as markets enter the final quarter of the calendar year, particularly against the euro and pound. Dealers were noting that Russia reportedly sold over €5B in euros in today's session. More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are trading generally higher vs. the USD. The AUD is just barely higher.
Dealers are looking ahead to an RBA rate cut of -25 to -50 bps next week. There are outlier forecast for a cut of -100bps. More...
There is no doubt that monetary policy globally is being driven by fear and the need to secure liquidity. Inflation targeting and the promotion of growth have been taking a back seat to efforts to keep the international financial system afloat. More...
We are guessing the “momentous historical development” that launches the US dollar into a new multi-year bull trend was the credit crunch. It is a game changer on risk appetite and correlation of every asset class (but the dollar) going up at the sam More...
The dollar eased against a basket of currencies and the euro on Wednesday, after a breath-taking surge in the previous session fed by end-quarter activity and talk of possible consensus on a $700 billion bank bailout plan. More...
A day after experiencing its worst decline since its inception, the EURUSD held ground above the 1.4100 level in early European session as focus shifted away from quarter end dollar repatriation to whether the Senate will pass the Treasury rescue package More...
In Currencies: Dealers were awaiting to see if the quarter-end appetite for USD would continued into October. Yesterday's sessions saw the EUR/USD encounter its largest one day decline since its January 1999 launch. More...
The markets Tuesday focused on scarce USD liquidity on quarterend. There was talk of heavy hedge fund redemptions over the session as many funds only have a small window periodically to move out of these investments. This rush to the door was said to have More...
The EUR has recovered modestly vs. the USD today after tumbling yesterday on an end of quarter liquidity squeeze. The JPY is trading about steady as it pivots the 150 line. The JPY continue to be used as the primary refuge currency. More...
USDCHF pushed higher on Tuesday reaching the 1.1250 resistance area and not showing the bearish signs we were expecting from a technical point of view. More...
It is the end of the third quarter and demand for US dollars has been exceptionally strong. This is related to repatriation flows and profit taking following yesterday’s big moves. The stock market closed up 485 points, which is approximately 60 percent More...
The Canadian dollar staged its biggest single-day drop against the U.S. dollar in more than six months on Tuesday as new-found hope for a $700 billion U.S. financial bailout plan sent the greenback higher across the board. More...
Markets Tuesday focused on scarce USD liquidity one day after the U.S. House voted down the $700bln financial bailout package. Various central banks, including the Fed, took aggressive steps over the session to inject USD liquidity into the money market. More...
Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the day down 777 points! Needless to say that’s going to get your attention when you flip on your local news and the anchors are attributing it to a House funding bill, vital in avoiding a financial melt More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are trading lower. The CAD has tumbled. The AUD is sharply weaker and the kiwi has eased.
Deleveraging remains the overarching theme. Liquidity everywhere is hard to come by. This is bad news for economic grow More...
Price action on the key GBP/USD pair (a daily chart of which is shown) has been in strong bearish mode since the beginning of the week as the dollar has strengthened across the board More...
The dollar jumped 1 percent against the yen on Tuesday, as shock at the failure of the U.S. Congress to approve a $700 billion bank bailout plan gave way to cautious optimism that a deal may yet be reached. More...
In Currencies: The JPY and CHF retraced some of their gains achieved from Monday's session when equity markets encountered some turbulence following the failure of the US House of Representative to pas the financial bailout package. However, some confiden More...
Currency markets remained steady in the aftermath of yesterday’s failure to pass the US Treasury rescue package by US House of Representatives. Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the reaction to the news was the general absence of panic in global equ More...
The markets seem relatively calm the day after the U.S. House voted down the $700bln U.S. financial bailout package. Many assume now that the House Republicans (minority) have made their statement, they will pass something similar late this week or early More...
The EUR is trading mixed today in the wake of the unexpected defeat of the U.S. financial bailout bill in the U.S. House of Representatives yesterday. The USD has gained, but the JPY has corrected, and has eased to the 150 level vs. the EUR. More...
USDCHF has slowly moved higher retesting the trendline it broke on September 22 when we had a big bearish move; with all this volatility in just about all capital markets around the globe USDCHF respected a down sloping trendline connecting the year's hig More...
The rejection of the $700B bailout plan by the House of Representatives came completely out of the left field, driving a knife through both US equities and the US dollar. For the Bush Administration, it certainly feels like they are moving one step forwar More...
The U.S. dollar benefitted from risk aversion globally on Monday, even though the U.S. Congress failed to pass a $700 bln bank bailout package, as stock markets plunged and authorities were forced to rescue banks in several countries.
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Events conspired to create one of the tumultuous days in financial markets for a long time. European markets opened weak as UK bank Bradford & Bingley was nationalised and Fortis received a bailout from the Benelux governments. More...
The U.S. House voted down the $700bln U.S. financial bailout package Monday. This has been a major shock to the markets who had been expecting the bill to be passed.
Politicians will now have to More...
In currencies the global liquidity crisis remained the dominant theme, with USD, JPY and CHF seeing significant moves in a trading session defined by heightened stress, thanks to the European bailouts, US development central bank liquidity operations. More...
The Dollar Rescue FX Solutions Monday September 29, 2008 - 15:39:12 GMT
We should have known. It seems to happen each time we are near some type of extreme in sentiment—we receive very strident email telling us we are wrong More...
Price action on the USD/JPY daily chart, as shown, has just reached up to a key downtrend line, and then subsequently bounced down considerably off this line, respecting its resistance once again More...
Capital markets are in lock down…very little trading is happening in any financial instrument or currency. Banks have reduced trading to non-leveraged real money accounts, corporates and prime broker accounts. More...
The euro and sterling tumbled more than 2 percent against the dollar on Monday as the impact of the latest financial storm fanned out beyond the United States, forcing bank nationalisations in Europe. More...
I wrote this last night: The question is this enough to take the focus off the US financial system? If so, then will it shift to economic data and interest rates or to Europe (and UK), which is not only feeling the economic strain but the financial contag More...
FX Blog - Global-View.com Monday September 29, 2008 - 11:00:46 GMT
In Currencies: The USD exhibited sharp gains against the European currencies in the aftermath of the Fortis and Hypo bailouts and the Icelandic Government stake in Glitnir Bank. More...
The credit crisis is still in full swing; in fact, it is worse now than when it first started in Q3 of last year. Credit spreads have widened out and interbank spreads are the widest that they have been at any time in the last 12 months. But our focus in More...
Dollar started the week off with a bang as financial crisis spread to Europe with Benelux based Fortis bank receiving an $11 Billion euro injection from Belgium, Dutch and Luxemburg governments in return for 49% stake in the company. Meanwhile in UK More...
U.S. House Republicans are expected to vote today on the $700bln U.S. financial bailout package today before noontime omn the east coast. The Senate is expected to vote later in the week (Wednesday?). President Bush is scheduled to comment on the deal at More...
The EUR has broadly lost ground today in the wake of the effective nationalization of Fortis by the Benelux countries plus the Bradford and Bingley rescue by the British government and Banque Santander and Abbey. Dealers are worried about what problems mi More...
Conditions in the credit markets continue to deteriorate. As of this writing, we are still waiting for final word on whether the $700bln bailout of the U.S. financial system will be passed. Odds are something will be. The key question is whether the event More...
USD Index was whippy in London/NY and finally little changed as markets watched ongoing inconclusive headlines about the financial rescue package. The S&P 500 rose a modest 0.3%, the DJIA +1.1%. More...
Flying last Tuesday, overnight from Cape Town in South Africa to London, I read in the Financial Times that Republican Congressman Joe Barton of Texas was quoted as saying (this is from memory, so it is not exact) that he had difficulty voting for a bailo More...
It will be another long weekend for the US Treasury Secretary and the heavy hitters in Washington. September has certainly been a sleepless month for Paulson, as Fannie and Freddie was followed by Lehman Brothers and AIG and then the initial $700B proposa More...
Price action on the 4-Hour GBP/USD chart, as shown, is currently languishing in somewhat of a sideways consolidation, much like other major currency pairs More...
In the last fortnight, the dollar has lost a lot of ground. Against the euro, the US currency fell about 5% from 1.39 to around 1.46. However, considering that from March to August the exchange rate was usually over 1.55, and given the extent of the US fi More...
Recession by definition means demand for all kinds of stuff falls. And if demand for stuff falls, the demand by business for raw materials to make said stuff should naturally fall— More...
I don’t know where to begin. I thought I could believe the leaders of both parties in Congress and the White House and the Treasury that there was an agreement with bipartisan backing for the Paulson plan or TARP (troubled asset repurchase program). More...
The Japanese yen gained broadly on Friday as investors cut risk exposure due to the stalling of a proposed $700 billion financial system bailout and closure of Washington Mutual in the biggest ever U.S. bank failure. More...
Risk aversion taking over to end the week and this has seen carry trades dominate, led by a surge in the yen and a lesser extent the chf. Offsets have weighed on other pairs, including the eur/usd, which has tested its downside again but still remains abo More...
Global equity markets were lower by more than 1% by early European trade as it became evident that the legislative passage of the Treasury rescue plan may be in doubt after Republicans in Congress balked at some of the provisions of the bill. More...
In Currencies: The USD maintained a firmer tone against the European pairs, but was lower against the Japanese Yen as risk aversion remained the dominant topic as the US bailout package stalls in Congress. More...
U.S. House Republicans are being accused by Democrats of stalling the agreement on U.S. financial bailout package to help the presidential campaign of John McCain. If true, this tactic could backfire on financial markets, the economy and his campaign. Mea More...
The EUR has generally lost ground today ahead of the weekend and after talks for the U.S. financial bailout package ran into stubborn Congressional opposition. Whether this simply is a political tactic by House Republicans or a real problem remains to be More...
The currency market never responds favorably to uncertainty and when a plan is in place and there is hope, relief is expected. This is exactly what we saw in the stock market and the US dollar today, as they both rallied on the announcement of a tentative More...
The sharp equity rally on optimism over a deal on the bailout package by Monday helped USD post moderate gains despite dismal US economic data. Lawmakers left a bipartisan meeting offering no details but confident that they had a plan that would pass Hous More...
The four Democrat administrations achieved the four fastest rates of job growth. Democrats also owned three of the four best dollar performances. More...
The focus on Thursday was on the U.S. financial bailout program that has just about worked its way through Congress. It now appears to be a done deal. The strongest reaction has been in equty markets, which have improved. The USD really does not know what More...
Price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, is currently in somewhat of a consolidation mode, seemingly undecided as to the next directional push More...
The USD was softer in early a NY whippy trading environment as rumors circulated regarding the bailout. The rumor mill was in full force, including one story making the rounds that a coordinated central bank rate cut would complement the passage of the ba More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all trading modestly firmer vs. the USD.
The focus of trade remains on the disposition of the efforts to the bail out of the U.S. and international financial system. Thus far the liquidity has gotten worse More...
Is it just me or does anyone else think that an impromptu Presidential Address should be designated for declaring war, explaining foreign matters or tending to personal Whitehouse affairs … if you know what I mean? More...
The dollar fell against a basket of currencies on Thursday as investors continued to fret about whether political wrangling will delay approval of the $700 billion U.S. package to mop up bad bank debt. More...
In Currencies: USD is trading lower against the EUR, CHF, JPY and GBP with the weaknes due to the Because of the dysfunctional interbank deposit markets. Dealers indicate that three-month USD Libor seen around 3.7%-4.7% range compared to Wed fixing of 3.4 More...
Unlike yesterday at this time when there was an inside day, the eur/usd has traded an outside day already. This comes in a market that can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel over what we have been saying is an inevitable compromise and agreeme More...
EUR/USD rallied steadily in early European trade after comments by Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank that House and Senate Democrats have agreed on an approach to implement the More...
The focus today is back on the U.S. fimancial bailout package. Odds are something will be passed before the weekend. Politicians have a strong incentive to get something done because they want to get home as soon as possible to for the Congressional break More...
USDJPY has beed trading inside a range for a couple fo weeks, the area is full of former support and resistance levels and lack of sway on either part of the Pacific didn't help much; we do keep an eye out for the support levels as we are trading close to More...
The EUR has advanced further vs. the JPY today as tensions in the forex markets seem to have eased modestly. The markets are feeling that one way or another there will be a financial bailout plan passed fairly soon.
The EUR crosses are mixed. The EUR is More...
For the second day in a row, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and US Treasury Secretary Paulson pleaded to the power players of Washington to pass their request for $700 Billion to implement their Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) More...
The Canadian dollar was little changed against the U.S. dollar in quiet trading on Wednesday, while bond prices tracked the larger U.S. market higher ahead of Thursday's speech by the governor of the Bank of Canada. More...
With Congress and White House/Tsy teed up for a $700bln bank rescue package (trust me it is in the bag, all the hearings are for show back home) and Warren Buffet putting down $5bln on Goldman preferred, credit is blowing out today, worse than last Thursd More...
The focus on Wednesday was back on bank liquidity as interbank lending about dried up again. Very simply, banks who have cash do not want to let it go for credit/liquidity reasons. All the while, testimony about the U.S. bailout program droned on for anot More...
Credit markets remain the overall focus in currencies as signs of renewed stresses in the system continue to highlight the insatiable demand for cash. LIBOR is once again taking center stage with the three-month USD fixing surging 27bps to 3.48% against T More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all trading firmer vs. the USD.
It looks like generally the USD is generally higher as it consolidates some of its recent losses. The focus remains on the testimony on the bailout of the U.S. financial sys More...
Jim Grant said a few months back in one of his Interest Rate Observer bi-weekly missives: “Humans are simply incapable of handling credit,” or something close to that. We have seen the deleterious impact of easy money before. And no matter the regul More...
Price action on the AUD/USD daily chart, as shown, has formed a pennant consolidation pattern that has followed immediately on the heels of a key downtrend resistance line breakout last week More...
The yen fell broadly on Wednesday as investors eased back from risk aversion, taking some comfort from news that Goldman Sachs would get fresh funding and the establishment of new Fed currency swap lines. More...
EUR/USD so far trading an inside day with the failure to maintain 1.48+ cooling the recovery while the downside is protected while above 1.45. This leaves little in the way of key levels nearby so expect more choppy trading as the focus stays on More...
In Currencies: The USD was mildly mixed during the lackluster European morning as the market participants focused on the German IFO data release. The EUR/USD stayed below the 1.47 handle for the most part as dealers expected a weaker IFO reading (citing t More...
The focus today will be on testimony about the U.S. bailout program once again. So far it seems that Secretary Paulson and Fed Chief Bernanke have not gotten through to members of Congress about the need to act. Opposition to the financial bailout program More...
The markets seem to continue to be feeling their way forward. Today has seen another weaker than expected Ifo survey report for Germany. Ifo called for an ECB rate cut. All eyes remain on the U.S. financial bailout plan.
The Fed has injected another $30 More...
After failing to push thorugh 1.4800 EURUSD has started to give back some of the gains it made in its spectacular move last week; the pair is trading just under the 1.4700 level and the first sign of support is at 1.4600 where we have the 61.8 Fibonacci L More...
The eyes of everyone from investment managers to stock and currency traders were glued to testimony of the 3 biggest players in the latest financial crisis. US Treasury Secretary Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and SEC Chairman Cox urged th More...
Markets spent a good portion of the London/NY overlap watching Fed’s Bernanke and Treasury’s Paulson explain to sceptical politicians why it was essential their rescue plan is passed quickly with few changes. More...
The Canadian dollar gave back some of its recent gains against a firmer U.S. dollar on Tuesday, after rising 3.4 percent versus its U.S. counterpart over the previous three sessions on uncertainty surrounding the bailout of the U.S. financial sector. More...
I can’t tell you how many calls I have had today from people utterly exasperated with our political representatives in Congress after watching the Senate Finance Committee hearings with Paulson, Bernanke, Cox and Lockhart. More...
The focus Tuesday was on testimony about the U.S. bailout program. Financial markets are still waiting for specific details of the U.S. financial markets bailout program. Testimony by Paulson, Bernanke and Cox on the issue did not satisfy Congress on the More...
The greenback exhibited choppy price action during the US morning, but maintained its overall price range from the Asian and early European sessions. The USD encountered a bit of turbulence in early trading after extended previews of Bernanke's testimony More...
Ezone activity has contracted in each of the past four months in manufacturing and the even more important service sectors. Conditions worsened faster in September. More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all trading weaker vs. the USD.
It looks like generally the USD is generally higher as it consolidates its loses from yesterday. The focus today is testimony on the bailout of the U.S. financial system.
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This is the new mantra of central banks…like deer in the headlights central bankers are frozen on rate policy stuck between elevated commodity prices and a banking crisis come recession risk this global economy has not faced since 1929 at the start of T More...
Flash reading from the EZ PMI Manufacturing and Services surveys printed far weaker than expected and drove the EURUSD lower for much of the early European session. More...
the USD tumbled on Monday. Financial markets are still waiting for specific details of the U.S. financial markets bailout program. Today will see testimony by Paulson Bernanke and Cox on the issue. The preliminary market read is that it will wind up beari More...
Trading has gotten off to a volatile start this week. The focus has been on the potential negatives of the U.S. financial bailout program. The EUR as it is currently being viewed as the strongest of a bunch of weak currencies. As the dust settles, the U.S More...
The dollar clawed back ground against euro on Tuesday after suffering its biggest one-day loss since the single currency's inception, but worries about a $700 billion U.S. bank bailout package was seen limiting its rebound. More...
The week started with significant USD weakness on all majors and that has pushed GBPUSD much higher than we expected, the pair is trading now close to the resistance trendline that marks a bullish channel. More...
The last thing that US Treasury Secretary Paulson probably hoped for when announcing his $700 Billion bailout plan was the price action that we saw across the financial markets today. Rather than stabilizing or calming the markets, the destruction of the More...
The Canadian dollar rose to its highest level in seven weeks against a besieged U.S. dollar on Monday, fueled by uncertainty about the $700 billion bailout plan for the stumbling U.S. financial sector and how it weigh on the U.S. balance sheet. More...
The puncturing of equity market optimism over the US financial rescue plan (DJIA -380pts late session) and discussion over the US credit rating saw USD sold across the board. While Moody’s and Fitch reaffirmed the US’s AAA rating, there was open scept More...
The U.S. dollar tumbled, hitting multiweek lows against the euro and against sterling on Monday as the U.S. government's bailout plan to ease a financial credit crisis reignited worries about the country's massive budget deficit. More...
In currencies, the carry-related pairs moved higher as dealers watched risk aversion ease off thanks to the government's bailout of US financial sector. More...
As shown on the accompanying USD/JPY 4-Hour chart, price action has recently formed a relatively well-defined downtrend resistance line, with at least three or four touches thus far More...
It seems the consensus argument is the US dollar MUST go lower given the nationalization of banking institutions and bailouts. But, that hasn’t necessarily been the historical reality. More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all trading higher vs. the USD.
One perspective today is that the current economic policies (loose monetary and loose fiscal) will turn out to have been highly stimulative to the U.S. and global economies. More...
Markets focused on the emerging details in regards to the US financial bailout plan Dealers noting that the their attention is being drawn to the fact that the deficit would likely have to dramatically increase in size. More...
Financial uncertainty means that the economic signals from bond and financial markets are highly misleading at present. The drying-up of liquidity has exposed the fault lines in developed economies' investment bank business models of the last 10 to 15 yea More...
The financial markets still are waiting for the specific details of the Paulson financial markets bailout program. The preliminary reading in that it is likely to be bearish for the USD. The combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies is usually see More...
Trading appears to be moving into a consolidation phase early Monday. This is helping the EUR as it is currently being viewed as the strongest of a bunch of weak currencies. As the dust settles, the U.S. bailout package is seen as having significant drawb More...
GBPUSD jumped on Friday over 300 points from the 1.8000 support zone up to the 1.8400 level, the move came after we saw a good decline in the morning and came as a bit of a surprise for us. More...
My Dad used to tell me there is no accounting for standards when looking at something that seemed odd. Today, we have faulty standards for accounting that are ripping apart the fabric of the world's More...
The volatility that we have seen in the currency, stock and bond markets this past week has not been for the faint of heart.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 500 points on Monday, but instead of continuing lower over the course of the week, it staged More...
The Canadian dollar rose to its highest point in three weeks against the U.S. dollar on Friday, gaining support from rallying commodity prices on the back of plans for a comprehensive package to sop up the toxic debt that has been clogging U.S. financial More...
The yen fell on Friday and was set for its worst one-day drop versus the dollar in over five months as steps by U.S. authorities to boost morale in distressed financial markets revived global appetite for risky trades.
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In currencies, dealers are noting a winding theme of risk aversion in the wake of the financial bailout plan and Fed's intention to buy GSE debt from primary dealers. Overall the dollar's tone has been mixed as it firms against the JPY, with the USD retre More...
The financial crisis has reached a new dimension this week: Lehman Brothers Holding had to file a petition under chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code; the collapse of the US insurer AIG was only averted by the Fed agreeing an $85bn bailout and the US gove More...
Well yesterday was the worst day of the banking crisis by a long shot going back 13 months. Actually it was worse than the 1987 stock market crash. Well actually it was worse than the 1929 stock market crash. There was (use past tense cautiously) a ban More...
In Currencies: Dealers noting a winding theme of risk aversion activity today in the wake of the U.S. financial bailout plan. The plan is reportedly calling for More...
Global equities staged a fast and furious rally in the wake of the announcement by US fiscal authorities last night that they will create a rescue vehicle to acquire illiquid MBS securities from US financial institutions to ease the credit crisis that saw More...
The dollar rose nearly two percent against the yen on Friday, boosted by news that the U.S. government was considering a comprehensive plan to deal with the toxic bank assets at the heart of the financial market turmoil. More...
The financial markets have a lot to digest today as they try to assess the implications of the USD 500 bln bailout plan for the U.S. financial system. Presumably the program will improve the liquidity in the system, and give firms an opportunity to liquef More...
There has been an winding of risk aversion activity today in the wake of the U.S. financial bailout plan. The EUR has gained against the JPY and CHF. EUR/GBP is about steady.
The value of the EUR generally this week has been driven in large part by offs More...
The Canadian dollar rose 0.7 percent against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, getting a boost from a "buy North America" bid after U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was reported to have suggested More...
The U.S. dollar rose against the yen and recouped most losses against the euro on Thursday in a broad surge with U.S. stocks on reports Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is talking about a Resolution Trust Corp-type solution to the current financial crisis More...
The US dollar was volatile once more, rebounding from heavy selling in the London morning to be flat or a little higher in late NY, helped by a rebound on Wall Street. The DJIA rebounded from its worst 3 day decline in 10 years to rally >400pts in late tr More...
Word emerged Tgursday afternoon that Treasury Secretary Paulson is in discussions with Congress about some sort of Resolution Trist solution to the housing crisis. The news was taken initially as USD positive. Stocks rallied and flight to safety demand fo More...
In currencies, the greenback has rebounded from lows seen in the European morning. Dealers continue to debate the impact of the central bank liquidity operation amid concerns over the elevated levels of various swap rates. More...
It was probably many months ago that we came across an article about a man from China who’d furnished a castle, or palace or sorts, with items made from solid gold. More...
Swap lines between the Federal Reserve Bank and other central banks are temporary credit lines that enable the Fed to draw foreign exchange and the other monetary authorities simultaneously to acquire More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all trading higher vs. the JPY, and against the USD.
The USD/JPY is about steady, and the EUR/JPY has gained.
Fundamentally, the AUD and NZD remain vulnerable with significant rate cuts in the pipeline b More...
The dollar hit a three-week low against a basket of currencies and dropped sharply against the euro on Thursday, as investors shone a spotlight on U.S. financial sector health and jammed-up money markets. Underscoring the seriousness of the situation in b More...
Today’s coordinated liquidity by G-7 Central banks and the SNB, tried to alleviate the crisis in the global money markets which has seen overnight dollar lending rates spike to as high as 10%, but the move appeared to have only limited effect on reducin More...
In Currencies: The USD was broadly lowers in a choppy session as credit tensions remained the focal point. The USD initially was bid ahead of the European equity open as 3-month USD LIBOR fixings were signally continued stress in liquidity and at one tim More...
EUR/USD: Performing technically by holding the middle of 1.4270-90 (low 1.4280) and bouncing. As noted yesterday, if that support holds, it needs to establish above More...
Finally, the major central banks are acting in concert today and have made a massive injection of liquidity in money markets, and this has seen some easing of bank funding concerns. Nevertheless, worry about counter-party risks have forex dealing room act More...
Risk aversion continues to dominate forex activity. Now it is being manifested in EUR demand after the markets have started to reflect on the likely adverse impact on the U.S. economy. Some of the flight to safety concern might be easing.
The value of t More...
EURUSD is closing in on the 1.4400 resistance which we have marked on our charts; at that point we will have to pay close attention to the way price action develops More...
The biggest stories in the financial markets today was the government bailout of AIG, the 450 point drop in the Dow and the 10 percent rise in gold prices (+$80), which the largest since September 1999. As we have been warning in prior reports, if global More...
A late rally by commodity prices helped the Canadian dollar recover from steep losses to end slightly higher against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday.
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The U.S. dollar fell against the euro and yen on Wednesday as the U.S. government's rescue of insurer AIG failed to calm investor concerns about the stability of the U.S. financial sector. More...
USD Index ground higher until about NY lunchtime then sank >1% in afternoon trade. Heavy losses in financial stocks – a disappointment given the Fed’s action on AIG – took their toll as the DJIA sank 400pts in late NY. Poor US Aug housing data didn More...
The focus shifted from AIG to Morgan Stanley Wednesday as short-sellers tried to bang the stock down over the day. Those preditors have done well in the past week or so and will continue to press the most vulnerable stocks lower as long as it works. There More...
Within the context of the up-and-down consolidation in the majors in the last few days, the USD/CHF pair has been bouncing between two significant support/resistance factors More...
Currency and bond trading has been marked by renewed concerns over the health of the global financial sector. As noted at the European open, FX, equity and fixed-income traders are all fixated on the need for USD funding. More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all trading sharply weaker vs. the JPY, and against the USD once again.
The BOJ kept policy steady today as widely expected. The JPY has been the major financing currency for commodity carry trades. The US More...
The dollar’s increasingly improved tone after the rescue of Bear Stearns in mid-March was mirrored in the greatly improved quality of net capital inflows in 2Q08. More...
In Currencies: The USD was on the defensive in early European trading as commodities rebounded. USD rebounded from session lows as continued concerns over the global financial market remained elevated More...
The yen fell against the euro and moved well away from recent four-month highs versus the dollar on Wednesday, with risk aversion alleviated after U.S. authorities extended a lifeline to insurer AIG More...
AIG dominated trade overnight with the Federal government taking over the insurance giant overnight. It appears now as though the firm is in line to be dismantled piece by piece to pay off as much of the $85bln government stake in the firm as possible.
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Risk aversion continues to dominate forex activity as the U.S. financial system works its way through a difficult restructuring. The process has spilled over into European markets today with Lloyds-TSB reportedly now discussing a takeover of HBOS in the U More...
FX markets traded very nervously in illiquid conditions, paying little heed to fundamental economic news ahead of the FOMC decision. Various central banks injected funds to ease money market strains. More...
The Canadian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday due to soft commodity prices, but managed to make up some ground late in the session as markets cheered a report of a possible bailout for More...
The dollar gained on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 2 percent, opting for the time being to soothe rattled financial markets with central bank lending facilities rather than rate cuts. More...
GVI Market Snapshot- for September 16, 2008 More...
FX Blog- GVI john Tuesday September 16, 2008 - 19:50:33 GMT
Concerns about AIG dominated trade most of the day on Tuesday. Credit agencies marked down AIG late Monday and hopes for a private bailout appeared to have been dashed by midday in NYC. The ball was then tossed into the court of the U.S. government and Fe More...
In currencies, the USD remains mixed in an emotional session ahead of the FOMC policy decision. Financial sector concerns remain highly elevated, as evidenced by the USD LIBOR fixing for overnight lending rates at 6.44% compared to yesterday's 3.11% fixin More...
Yesterday and this morning the S&P 500 broke down through extremely critical support. But even though the price action practically signaled “lights out” for stocks, the S&P has found a way to rally back and reverse its roughly 30-point loss from earli More...
Price on the key EUR/GBP cross has just made a pronounced bounce almost precisely off the significant uptrend support line that has been in place for at least a year now More...
The USD was consolidating its recent gains against the European currencies while the JPY firmed on continued unwinding of carry-related pairs. USD/JPY tested below the 104 handle where it encountered some 'good Far east Bids'.EUR/JPY probed the 147.60 are More...
The dollar steadied near 4-month lows versus the yen on Tuesday, but held gains against high yielders as investors took refuge in safe-haven assets following the collapse of Lehman Brothers More...
Sitting here watching the market and sometimes it feels like I am watching a tennis match. Other times it feels like an ultimate fighting match. For others it is like Survivor More...
Central banks globally have been taking aggressive actions to improve the liquidity of the financial system as institutions work their way through the aftermath of the LEH failure.
Concern about AIG is now the focus of trade. Unlike LEH, AIG is probably More...
Risk aversion remains the name of game for the EUR as the markets continue to try to work through the liquidity issues caused by the failure of LEH mess.
Deleveraging has seen the JPY has make another move higher against the EUR on more unwinding of old More...
After breaking above the steep resistance trendline on Friday, EURUSD moved sharply up on Sunday open only to fall back down in the European session; from a technical point of view the moves managed to reinforce the 1.4400 resistance and to establish the More...
USD Index rallied into the NY morning with hopes for an emergency Fed cut to restore confidence to turbulent financial markets and NYMEX oil sinking below $95/bbl. But there was no rate cut and instead the dollar trimmed gains on subconsensus readings on More...
The Canadian dollar slid 0.6 percent against the U.S. dollar on Monday after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) filed for bankruptcy protection, giving a bid to More...
The U.S. dollar fell against the euro on Monday amid increased risk aversion after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) filed for bankruptcy protection, spurring a stock market sell-off, while the yen rallied on the u More...
Monday has been one of those rare sessions you just have to survive. The collapse of LEH was not expected as of late Friday. Some sort of a positive resolution to the crisis had generally been expected. The MER merger with BOA was seen as an important a p More...
In currencies, the USD and carry-related pairs exhibited a high level of volatility in a session marked by extreme risk. Fed funds moved towards the 4% level after a $20B overnight repo operation prompted a major scramble for liquidity. This compares to More...
Lehman Brothers Holdings has declared Chapter 11 Bankruptcy. Any potential bidders have fled the scene and so far the Treasury doesn’t plan on bailing them out. More...
As of Monday morning (New York session) price action on the AUD/USD daily chart, as shown, has continued to respect the steep downtrend resistance line that has been in place since late July More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all trading sharoly weaker vs. the JPY, and against the USD.
The JPY is the classic counter-party to the commodity carry trades. The USD/JPY is sharply weaker, and the EUR/JPY has tumbled. More...
Facing Resistance near the Max High for the day, at 1.8128, the pair has seen a sharp dip and could now be headed towards Support at 1.7840. The pair has seen a trading range of over 350 pips........ More...
The yen appeared set on Monday for its biggest daily percentage gain versus the dollar in nearly two years as risk aversion mounted after Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) filed for bankruptcy protection. More...
In currencies, the USD overcame its intial bout of weakness following the LEH and MER news. The EUR/USD traded as high as 1.4480 in Asia but moved back towards the 1.4250 area as dealers re- evaluated the global risk scenario. More...
The bail out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is ‘...one of the largest financial interventions not only in US history but in any country’s history. But the costs to the government is manageable’ says an analyst at S&P. More...
The collapse of LEH was unexpected late Friday. Some sort of a positive resolution to the crisis had generally been expected. The MER merger with BOA is being seen as a positive as it hopefully resolves a major potential problem. AIG remains an issue to b More...
Risk aversion has the name of game for the EUR today following the LEH mess after the government decided to let it fail. Deleveraging has been a major weight on the EUR.
The JPY has made a major move higher against the EUR on more unwinding of old carry More...
USDJPY has managed to move under the support trendline we havee been looking at for the past week; the move is seen all across the pairs with the USD showing significant weakness, opening with gaps. More...
This week we look at the housing market in some detail. When can we expect it to turn around? Part of the problem is that a new wave of foreclosures is coming due, and this time it is not subprime. And that means more problems for the large financial comp More...
The Canadian dollar rose 1.5 percent against a slumping greenback on Friday as concerns about the health of the U.S. economy revived expectations of another U.S. interest rate cut. More...
In currencies, the greenback continued to experience some retracement following the advances seen earlier in the week. EUR/USD continues to hover around the 1. 41 handle while GBP/USD regained a foothold above 1.77. The EUR/JPY cross is holding above its More...
The US dollar was able to consolidate its position against almost all of the important currencies this week. EUR/USD hit a twelve-month low and temporarily slid to 1.3888, although most of the news was unfavourable for the USA: weak labour market data, Fa More...
The dollar and yen fell against the euro on Friday as growing talk of a package to rescue troubled U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers boosted equities and prompted forex dealers to cash in on recent strong rallies. More...
In currencies: The USD encountered a bit of retracement following the advances seen earlier in the week. EUR/USD moved back above the 1.41 handle while GBP/USD regained a foothold above 1.77. As slowing growth number continue to trickle out of the Euro Z More...
The focus for the past two days was on concerns about LEH. A press report last night suggested that the U.S. Treasury and the Fed were going to force action before the end of the weekend. It appears that officials decided to step in because the uncertaint More...
We’ve been pointing out in the latter part of this week that Risk aversion has been intertwined with deleveraging over the past few weeks. Deleveraging has been the latest weight on the EUR in the past two days. The apparent imminent conclusion to the p More...
USDCHF has started to slip lower after lacking the strength to make a new high or at least stay above 1.1400; currently the pair is trading at the support zone around 1.1350 a former high and also the intersection point with a trendline connecting higher More...
USD Index saw some volatility as usual but by late NY was little flat versus late Asia- Pacific trade. Lehman Bros’ shares sank another 45% as it dominated attention again. Moody’s warned that to avoid a rating downgrade, LEH needed a “stronger fina More...
The U.S. dollar climbed to fresh one-year peaks against the euro and a major currency basket on Thursday, as nervous investors sought refuge in the greenback's safety amid escalating global slowdown fears. More...
The Canadian dollar fell for a fourth straight day against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, sliding 0.6 percent as oil prices dropped to near the psychologically important $100 a barrel level and drove down the commodity-linked currency. More...
The focus all day Thursday was on concerns about LEH. The concerns continued to upset the markets and generated liquidity issues globally. As opposed to money markets, FX dealers are this situation in stride as this was not the first such situation they h More...
Dominos Larry Greenberg Thursday September 11, 2008 - 18:42:09 GMT
We didin't start the fire,
No we didn't light it,
But we tried to fight it. - Billy Joel
More...
In currencies, dealers continue to see a dual theme of risk aversion and de- leveraging. As the New York markets opened the EUR/USD continued probing fresh one-year lows below the 1.39 handle while carry-related crosses More...
Price action on USD/CHF has displayed an almost unrelenting bullish acceleration recently, much like the EUR/USD and GBP/USD have displayed a seemingly unstoppable bearish bias More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all trading weaker vs. the USD, and more importantly against the JPY.
The JPY is the usual favorite counter-party to the commodity carry trades. The USD/JPY is weaker, and the EUR/JPY has tumbled again.
More...
The financial press is only as good as its sources. Unfortunately too often the crowd is too quick to offer causality too casually, confusing motivations for trading with a llitany of at hand fundamentals. More...
Dealers and traders noting that risk aversion has been intertwined with deleveraging over the past few weeks and again this session as equities slump over 1% ahead of the NY morning. More...
Swissy has seen a steady rise in the day after the dip to 1.1350 has seen buying interest develop. From here, the day ahead could see a rise towards 1.1465, the Max High for the day, provided ... More...
The dollar hit a one-year high against the euro and a basket of currencies on Thursday due to a wave of risk aversion, while the New Zealand dollar fell to a two-year low after a large central bank interest rate cut. More...
I had a chat with a friend last night who asked whether the move in the euro has been the result of covert intervention or deleveraging. I answered the latter More...
Concerns about the resolution of the LEH problems continue to upset the markets and heve been generating liquidity issues globally. In terms of market sentiment, dealers are this situation in stride as this was not the first such situation they have had t More...
The pair pushed through the 1.1350 resistance and already retested it as an intraday support level in the Asian session, this showed the bullish trend is still intact and our attempt to catch an early short hasn't payed off. More...
Risk aversion has been intertwined with deleveraging over the past few weeks. Deleveraging continues to result in the unwinding of long EUR positions vs. the USD and JPY.
Thus the EUR continues to lose substantial ground on those key pairs. USD liquidit More...
The U.S. dollar climbed to a fresh one-year high against major currencies on Wednesday and surged to nearly 12-month highs versus the euro, as falling oil prices and a bounce in U.S. stocks overcame worries about the health of financial firms. More...
USD Index was comparatively quiet in early London morning but gained about 0.7% in New York. The Lehman Bros announcements ($3.9bn Q3 loss vs forecast $2.2bn, sale of assets) didn’t have a lasting impact on FX or LEH shares themselves which opened a lit More...
The Canadian dollar rose slightly against a generally stronger U.S. dollar on Wednesday as investors focused on weakening growth overseas and bought North American currencies. More...
Thursday saw volatile trade as concerns about the resolution of the LEH problems generated counter-party risk issues among other problems. In terms of market sentiment, dealers seemed to take this situation in stride as this was not the first such situati More...
December Fed Fund futures have moved to a slight easing bias 12% odds for a -25bp cut in the wake of a run of weaker U.S. economic data. Absent a significant deterioration in future data, we feel that the odds for future Fed ease at the present time are v More...
After EUR/GBP managed to reach a very long-term high last week at around 0.8185, price has corrected all the way back down to the top border of the rough triangle formation that it broke out of More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are trading higher vs. the USD, and more importantly against the JPY. Keep in mind that the JPY is the usual counter-party to carry trades. The AUD is up sharply after big declines earlier in the week. More...
In currencies the USD rebounded from session lows following the EU Commission lowering of its Eurozone GDP outlook. USD also aided by the German press reports that the IMG would lower Germany's 2009 GDP outlook. More...
Today has seen more volatile trade as concerns about the resolution of the LEH problems has generated counter-party risk problems. On the other hand, dealers seem to be taking this situation in stride as this is not the first such situation they have had More...
Risk aversion is the phrase for the day as markets await the resolution of the situation surrounding LEH. There is worry again about counterparty risk.
The EUR is up sharply vs. the JPY, while the JPY crosses against the carry trade currencies are lower More...
USDCHF failed on the second attempt to clear 1.1350 and formed a double top on the 1 hour charts; moving lower we see a second resistance area forming at 1.1300; these come after a strong bullish push and start to show signs of a retracement. More...
The Canadian dollar fell more than half a cent against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as commodity prices weakened, leading to Toronto stocks taking a drubbing and a drop in demand for the currency to buy Canadian assets. More...
Concerns over US financial sector stability returned to the fore, with FX markets particularly skittish over a stream of headlines regarding Lehman Brothers. USD was volatile but weaker overall as financials led the DJIA to a 235pt decline in latetrade More...
The U.S. dollar slumped against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, as steep falls in Wall Street stocks led by Lehman Brothers rekindled worries about a shaky U.S. financial sector. More...
As suggested in our pre-opening N.Y. comments, the rush to the door to get out of USD shorts tapered off on Tuesday, but likely it has not run its course. This is why trading a liquidating market is so difficult. New lows usually are required to prompt ea More...
The weekend takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was long overdue and based on how markets traded Friday, including rumors we reported of an imminent announcement from Secretary Paulson, one of the worst kept secrets. More...
When it's all over, a recession lasting more than two quarters will have played out, and market participants will be left to wonder yet again if Euroland will ever manage to decouple itself from a U.S More...
The better CAD housing data for August was lost in the commodity sell-off as the USD/CAD pair weaken back towards the 1.07 area. AUD/USD within striking distance of an alleged option barrier said to be in play at the 0.80 handle. More...
As noted late last week, price action on AUD/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has recently stalled in its virtual freefall of the last month and a half More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are now trading mixed vs. the USD. The AUD has fallen sharply. The CAD is about steady, and the NZD is unchanged.
The kneejerk move back into carry trades after the GSE bailout yesterday very quickly ran out o More...
The dollar fell on Tuesday, pulling away from a one-year high hit earlier in the day against a basket of currencies, although analysts reckoned the move would be just a blip in its climb higher. More...
In currencies, the USD saw its earlier gains achieved in Asia erode throughout the European morning. Chatter of Asian central banks returning to divest some USD holdings and European M&A rumors prompted the greenback to encounter a bit of profit-taking. More...
The rush to the door to get out of USD shorts might be starting to taper off but it broadly has not run its course. In a liquidating market, usually new lows are required to prompt each new round of liquidations. It still might be difficult to turn invest More...
USDJPY is the only major that hasn't witnessed any large move in the past couple of weeks, the pair has slowly moved lower but inside a 350-400 points channel. More...
This has been a USD market for the past few weeks and has remained primarily so. As a result there has been little net movement today in the key EUR crosses.
The EUR is about dead flat vs. the JPY, More...
Investors in London and New York appeared to view the USD sell-off sparked by the Fannie/Freddie takeover as an ideal opportunity to resume buying dollars, at cheaper prices. GBP/USD was among those hardest hit, sinking 4 cents to dip below 1.7500 in NY, More...
The Canadian dollar dipped against the U.S. dollar on Monday as renewed confidence in the U.S. financial sector following the U.S. government's takeover of the two biggest U.S. mortgage finance More...
The U.S. dollar rallied to a one-year peak against a basket of currencies on Monday, as the government's takeover of the country's two biggest mortgage finance agencies boosted confidence in the U.S. financial sector. More...
The markets spent the day Monady digesting the U.S. bailout decision for the GSE’s. It has been seen as a positive for the global finacial markets as overseas holders of Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae securities have seen their investments now explicitly und More...
Price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, has pulled back up to the long-term uptrend support line that it broke on Thursday of last week More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are now trading mostly higher vs. the USD. The exception is CAD, which is weaker.
On has to wonder if the move back into carry trades after the GSE bailout is sustainable. Additional significant rate cuts are More...
There is a lot of attention being placed on economic growth forecasts at present, not surprisingly since growth is slowing sharply and policy makers, companies and individuals want an idea of what is going to happen next so that they can plan ahead. We ha More...
As mentioned in our morning report a dip was seen in the pair. However, the plunge, rather than “dip”, found some Support at 1.7830-7780 region before finally breaking past to slide towards 1.76... More...
In Currencies, the USD recovered from its initial bout of weakness following the US Gov't bailout of the GSEs. EUR/USD fell from its 1.44 handle to retest the pre-US payroll lows seen on Friday More...
The U.S. bailout decision for the GSE’s is being seen as a shortternm positive for the global finacial markets as overseas holders of Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae securities have seen their investments now explicitly underwriten by the U.S. government. In More...
Following the confirmation of U.S. government action on the GSE’s (government sponsored enterprises), Fannie Mae angd Ginnie Mae, ove the weekend, some risk aversion trades have been unwound. This has seen the Euro respond positively on some its key cro More...
he dollar jumped against a broadly weaker yen and rebounded against a host of currencies on Monday after the U.S. government took control of Fannie Mae More...
EURUSD jumped higher after Sunday night open, pushed by the news coming out of the US. Showing a first sign of having formed a short time base above the 1.4200 on Friday the pair managed to move over More...
As for the market, it looks like Paulson & Co are finally doing what alot saw as inevitable - a government bailout of Freddie and Fannie. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts as it can be taken both ways as a bailout raises alot of issues More...
Bubbles, bubbles, bubbles� This is the bubble era, dot-coms, real estate, commodities, etc., and now the euro. It is a characteristic of a bubble that asset valuations get wildly overvalued. Bubbles then collapse after the last greater fool has gotten l More...
Looking at cable we could say 'yes' as the 6-year monthly support line was not only broken at 1.9060 in August but actually smashed since prices have fallen an additional 15 big figures below that line. More...
We are entering the next stage of the credit crisis, and one which is potentially more troubling than what we have seen over the past year, absent some policy reactions by the central banks and governments world wide. The crisis was started by an intense More...
The Canadian dollar rose 0.6percent against the U.S. dollar on Friday after Canadian jobs figures for August came in slightly stronger than the market had expected, easing concerns about the state of More...
The U.S dollar edged higher versus the euro on Friday but retreated from 11-month highs after government data showed the U.S. economy lost jobs for the eighth straight month and the unemployment rate jumped. More...
I have some doubts about a continuing U.S. dollar recovery based only on relative growth trends and central bank responses, but highly risk averse markets should extend the dollar's bounce anyway. More...
In currencies, the spike in US unemployment rate has knocked the dollar off its best levels and into negative territory against the European majors. Dealers are noting that the Fed was not forecasting a 6.0%+ reading in the unemployment rate until 2009. More...
From a longer-term perspective on the AUD/USD, we can see that as of Friday morning in New York, price has closely approached and tentatively retreated from a very significant support/resistance level More...
This week the euro dropped to 1.42 against the dollar, the lowest it has been this year. The pound Sterling also remained under pressure: cable slipped to 1.755 for a time – its lowest level since April 2006. The gloomy economic outlook is dragging the More...
Forex Blog - Help! Foreign Exchange Analytics Friday September 5, 2008 - 13:01:32 GMT
Markets are growing increasingly illiquid. Asset prices are tumbling from equities, to emerging market debt to mortgages to commodities to currencies. This is not an orderly environment and one can almost hear a collective cry for help echoing across ca More...
The pair has tested the Max High for the day at 1.1181, and could now be headed lower in the US session. There is a strong Support in the pair at 1.1100, and till the time it holds, there remains ... More...
The dollar surged to an 11-month high versus a weak euro on Friday, with traders continuing to buy the greenback ahead of the August U.S. employment report, while a flight from riskier carry trades lifted the yen. More...
The session was marked by some volatility price movements. The current them of softer equities, lower commodities and stronger USD continued into the European session. More...
Its hard to accept the notion being pushed by television journalists yesterday that the tumble in N.Y. shares was due to worries about U.S. jobs data due today. If that were the case, then the USD would not be sharply higher pretty much across the board ( More...
The risk aversion trade has been dominating activity at the end of the week. This has seen a heavy unwinding of EUR/JPY crosses, unloading of European equities and a move into European government bonds.
The EUR has continued to plummet its JPY cross as More...
EURUSD has been trading inside a similar channel as USDCHF for the last couple of weeks, but yesterday's ECB rate decision(hold) followed by the usual official commentaries push the pair lower, just pips away from 1.4200. More...
The Canadian dollar weakened against U.S. dollar on Thursday, giving back all its gains from the previous day as oil prices fell and the greenback rallied. More...
A downgrade to the ECB’s growth forecasts encouraged EUR/USD selling as did weaker oil prices and an upside surprise on the non-manufacturing ISM survey, helping USD Index rally 1% off its London morning lows. More...
The U.S. dollar rallied on Thursday to its highest against the euro this year after the European Central Bank cut its growth outlook for the 15-nation region, boosting the likelihood of interest rate cuts. More...
Thursday was one of those days in forex when you had to play detective to figure out what was going on. It looked as though the day might have seen another round of liquidations in key markets. Equities tumbled and long foreign currency positions against More...
The ECB and BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected at their policy meetings this morning: the BoE held at 5.00% and the ECB voted unanimously to maintain rates of 4.25%. More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are now trading weaker vs. the USD in line with the broadly firm USD.
The NZD has been dragged lower again by the AUD. Some carry trade unwinding could be underway. Many feel that additional significant rate c More...
The dollar slipped across the board on Thursday as traders locked in profits from its dramatic gains in past weeks, while investors awaited interest rate decisions by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. More...
The USD is set to open in N.Y. weaker from its Wedfnesday closing level against the EUR. After making a new low for the move, word is that EUR buying for reserve diversification purposes surfaced for the first time of this move.
Oil prices may be showin More...
Positive USD momentum showed signs of slowing during N.Y. trade on Wednesday. There was talk that reserve diversification began to surface during the day and this activity finally generayed some EUR support. Crude oil prices are higher as well. The oil to More...
After an initial resumption of the scramble for dollars in London, USD Index lost about -0.7% from its London morning highs with real money accounts prominent. The above-consensus reading on July factory orders (1.3% vs 1.0% expected) provided some fleeti More...
The Canadian dollar reversed early losses to finish higher against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, after the Bank of Canada held its key interest rate steady and gave no sign it would ease any time this year. More...
The U.S. dollar rose slightly on Wednesday and earlier touched its highest against the euro since January, on growing expectations the U.S. economy would outperform that of Europe. More...
The USD is closing in N.Y. about unchanged from its Tuesday closes against the EUR. After making a new low for the move, word is that EUR buying for reserve diversification purposes surfaced for the first time of this move.
Oil prices also showed possib More...
In currencies, the USD encountered some retracement during the New York session after exhibiting strength throughout the European morning. The Dutch Central Bank noted that rising inflation is limiting the bank's ability to maneuver and increasing the ris More...
The commodity currencies (AUD and NZD) are trading weaker vs. the USD in line with the broadly firm USD.
The CAD is firmer following the more hawkish than expected Bank of Canada policy statement following the unchanged (3.00%) target in the overnight t More...
Price action on EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has finally hit the long-term uptrend support line that has been in place for at least two and a half years More...
It appears that the U.S. economy might be moving into a bottoming phase. This could be an extended process. Note in the PMI indices below that the U.S. manufacturing PMI has been bouncing around at the 50 level. The employment data continue to worsen, but More...
The euro plumbed an eight-month low against the dollar on Wednesday after a fall in euro zone retail sales and figures confirming negative growth fuelled the possibility that the region may be veering towards a recession. More...
The pair is in an uptrend and could head higher later in the month, however, for now it faces Resistance at 1.1137-50 region, which could hold it back for sometime. A dip towards 1.1050 could be..... More...
As noted last night, calling for a EUR/USD bottom (dollar top) is still a leap of faith as there has been no meaningful retracement for over 15 big figs (now 16+ big figs). With that said, More...
European equities saw its price action move lower after July Euro-Zone retail sales data came in below expectations. The slew of European Services PMI were generally above expectations but remain mixed in terms of expanding/contracting. But the UK market More...
The diamond formation we mentioned failed to deliver the goods as the pair surged higher breaking above the 1.1050 initial resistance; the push stopped only when we were pips away from a trendline connecting multiple swing highs on the 1 hour timeframe. More...
The USD has spiked higher again heading into the Wednesday New York open. The unit has considerable upward momentum as traders focus on expected future weakness in the Euro-zone economy.
On this score, the ECB is seen in a no-win situation tomorrow. If More...
Positive USD momentum continues to be a weight on the EUR.USD pair. Crude oil prices are weaker as well as the markets seem to want to take a run at the $100 line. The oil to EUR correlation seems to be stronger on the downside than it is on rallies.
Th More...
USD jumped amid a huge wave of commodity selling (especially energy) in the London morning, with DXY up about 0.7% at its highs and oil sinking as low as $105.46/bbl (down more than $5) in frenetic trade. More...
The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level against the greenback in more than a year on Tuesday, thanks to a slide in oil prices and a U.S. dollar that rallied against a number of major currencies.
More...
The USD has given up some of its early sharp gains across the board, but it is still higher against the majors from its Monday closes in Europe. We noted this morning that when the USD trades higher, the focus of forex trade turns to individual currencies More...
The U.S. dollar rose to a 10-1/2 month high as measured by a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, boosted by a sharp drop in oil prices and persistent concerns about the health of other major global economies. More...
In currencies, the USD continued to benefit from the lower oil prices. Dealers are keeping a wary eye on a number of potential storms are brewing in the Atlantic region. The greenback ended the morning off its best levels as dealers noted some covering of More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are trading weaker vs. the USD. The AUD is sharply lower, following the -25bp cut in the Australian Cash Rate target to 7.00%.
The NZD has been dragged lower by AUD. Some carry trade unwinding could be underwa More...
As mentioned in our morning report the pair has risen towards 1.1130, which
also happens to be close to the Max High for the day. A dip from here,
towards 1.1050, could be seen later in the day.... More...
Unlike the old days when only a few traders had access to price action while away from the office, everyone can now have access. So those returning to their desks from the long US weekend will not be surprised by the levels but will have to deal with a ma More...
The USD continued to benefit from the lower oil prices as Hurrican Gustav failed to severely damage the Gulf oil facilities. Front month crude tested below the $106 level before retracing. More...
The dollar extended its rally on Tuesday to fresh 2008 highs against a basket of currencies as oil's startling fall toward $105 a barrel boosted expectations of lower global inflation and non-U.S. interest rates. More...
The USD is now trading sharply higher against the majors from its Monday closes in Europe. As is often the case, when the USD trades higher, the focus of forex trde turns to individual currencies more than blocs.
The EUR has followed Crude prices lower More...
USDJPY broke under the 108.50 support area and in a swift move yesterday got as low as 107.60 before jumping back up on news coming out of Japan and retesting the now resistance 108.50. More...
Tumbling oil prices have been a major weight on the EUR/USD toady after Hurricane Gustaav turned out not to have been the calamity it might have been. The EUR is weaker vs. its JPY cross even though the Japanese government is now in turmoil. The EUR is hi More...
The US dollar traded soggily in the London morning but then bounced as Hurricane Gustav was downgraded to a category 2 storm. USD Index rose 0.4% from its lows as the benchmark crude oil price extended its losses from $117/bbl to as low as $110.60/bbl, th More...
With second quarter gdp data now available for the main economies, this might be a good time to look at how global economic growth has performed so far in 2008. Chart a shows that Q2 growth is currently much lower than in the year earlier in all of the ma More...
In currencies, the carry related pairs exhibited weakness as both JPY and CHF were purchased. Dealers cited the comments from Mr. Yen (Sakakibara) who noted that Japan needed a stronger currency. More...
Sterling dropped to its lowest level against the dollar in more than two years on Monday after the UK's finance minister issued a pessimistic view of the economy, helping the dollar to extend broader gains. More...
The US dollar was range-bound until the much stronger than expected Aug Chicago PMI kicked off a 0.5% rally on USD Index that was supported by a late oil sell-off and decent consumer sentiment. More...
"The ongoing model divergence between the EUR and the CHF against the USD remains a technical problem. Twice late last week (on Thursday and Friday) EUR/$ tested the model but failed to trigger a break and fell back, however More...
When is the credit crisis going to end? How will we know? The credit crisis is getting ready to enter its second phase. This week we examine what that means, and what the economic environment will look like over the coming quarters. More...
The Canadian dollar fell 1 percent against the U.S. dollar on Friday as Canada's economy showed anemic growth in the second quarter, suggesting the Bankof Canada may have to cut interest rates again.
More...
The U.S. dollar rallied against a currency basket on Friday, on track for its best monthly gain in nearly 16 years, boosted by a batch of data showing a far more stable growth path for the United States than the rest of the world. More...
The dollar did very well in August against currencies associated with very high central bank rates and a mounting case for those rates to be cut. More...
EUR-USD moved somewhat erratically this week. On Tuesday, the euro slipped to a weekly low of 1.457 against the dollar, as weak business climate data from Germany triggered speculation about interest More...
The dollar slipped on Friday, shrugging off surprisingly strong U.S. growth figures from the previous day as dealers opted to take more profits from the currency's steepest monthly rise in over a decade. More...
·In currencies the USD was mildly weaker during the European shift, but remained within the 1.4670 to 1.4800 range seen throughout the most of the week. More...
The USD is now trading mostly lower from its Thursday closes. The USD is down against major European currencies (EUR and CHF). It is steady against the GBP. The uneven pattern in the crosses suggests that the USD does not have a lot of downside risk today More...
The EUR/USD is a bit higher from late Thursday lavels as dealers trade cautiously into the long North American weekend. Following a lower than expected flash E-Z flash August HICP report, the EUR is weaker vs. the JPY and CHF.
The EUR has advanced vs. t More...
Looking at the 1 hour charts on GBPUSD we can see the an almost exact replica of yesterday's pattern, although with a smaller range as the bigger wedge pattern is getting to an end. More...
Breaking the low side off the consolidation triangle USDJPY shows the strength of the US dollar this morning, a retest of the trendline should offer a good re-entry opportunity with a projected target of 80 points just above the 108 area. More...
The US dollar made fleeting gains on stronger than expected revisions to US GDP data, and only really bounced when oil prices fell sharply. Front month crude oil futures contracts tumbled from highs over $120/bbl to under $115/bbl in late NY as the IEA s More...
The Canadian dollar eased 0.5percent against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, due in part to a drop in the price of oil after the International Energy Agency pledged to dip into emergency stockpiles if More...
The dollar inched up against the euro and scaled a 2-year peak versus sterling on Thursday, buoyed by data showing a resilient U.S. economy growing at a faster pace in the second quarter than first reported. More...
The USD is now trading mostly higher from its Wednesday closes. Following an active early N.Y. morning session, trading ground to a slow crawl ahead of the long North American holiday weekend. The USD is up against the major European currencies (EUR, CHF More...
U.S. Japan, and Europe considered USD intervention
U.K. weakens further
BoJ's Suda sees inflation risks
BoE MPC's Blanchflowers calls for lower rates More...
U.S. growth of 3.3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) last quarter towered above annualized growth of 0.2% saar in Britain, -0.8% saar in the euro area and -2.4% saar in Japan. More...
The EUR/USD is now weaker after trading a wide range today, but the EUR has lost ground vs. the JPY, and is steady vs. the CHF. The EUR has advanced vs. the GBP. High oil prices had been providing the EUR with background support until the past hour or so. More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are trading mixed vs. the USD. The AUD is higher, the CAD is weaker and the NZD is about steady. No clear carry trade activity is underway today.
The main focus of trade is the future of Hurricane Gustav, whic More...
The euro strengthened broadly on Thursday, extending its rebound from six-month lows against the dollar a day after comments from European Central Bank policymakers dimmed speculation the bank will cut interest rates. More...
In currencies the USD was mildly softer during the European session as higher oil prices weighed upon sentiment with tropical storm Gustav approaching the Gulf of Mexico. Currency showed little reaction to German labor and M3 data, which beat expectations More...
The USD is trading mostly weaker from its Wednesday closes. The USD is down against the majors (EUR, JPY, CHF and GBP). Nevertheless, the pattern of the crosses suggests that the USD does not have a lot of downside risk from here.
The EUR has been getti More...
The EUR/USD has advanced, but the EUR has lost some modest ground vs. the JPY and CHF today. The EUR has advanced modestly vs. the GBP. High oil prices have been giving the EUR support.
The markets await U.S. GDP revisions and weekly jobless data later. More...
GBPUSD has slowly slipped lower while the other majors were consolidating, the move is marked by two descending trendlines connecting lower highs and lower lows(see chart below). More...
Hawkish ECB commentary knocked USD lower in London before the dollar was rescued by a stronger than expected read on US July durable goods orders, which saw DXY gain as much as 0.7% from its lows before cooling slightly in late NY. DGOs rose firmly in Jul More...
The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, getting support from higher oil prices as Tropical Storm Gustav looked set to strengthen as it churned toward oil and gas platforms in More...
The U.S. dollar tumbled from six-month peaks against the euro on Wednesday, as comments by a European Central bank official rekindled speculation about an interest rate increase in the euro zone to quell persistent inflation pressure. More...
The USD is trading mixed from its Tuesday closes. The EUR is up vs. the USD, but most of the other majors (JPY, CHF and GBP) are flat to weaker. This pattern suggests that the USD does not have a lot of downside risk from here. More...
We are used to Fed officials using the power of verbal intervention to reshape market expectations between FOMC meetings, though more often than not via surrogates in the financial press like Ip, Reddy and Guha. More...
Long-term price action on USD/CAD (a daily chart of which is shown) has come down decisively off the significant downtrend line (in red) that has served as resistance for at least 5 years More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are now about steady vs. the USD. Earlier, the three were broadly higher. Up until today they had been weighed down by carry trade unwinding.
The focus of trade today is the future of Storm Gustav, which is ex More...
The EUR has made a significant correction vs. the JPY and CHF today. The EUR is about steady vs. the GBP. Higher oil prices have been giving the EUR support.
Better than expected U.S. Durable Goods data have knocked the EUR off its highs of the day. More...
Even though the U.S. economy started to slow several quarters ago, it has not hit bottom yet. We are still waiting to see a floor in the housing sector. One problem for housing is that the real estate financing industry will have to restructure itself in More...
The dollar retreated on Wednesday as dealers cashed in on the currency's jump the previous session to 2008 highs against a basket of currencies while hawkish rhetoric from a European Central Bank policymaker lifted the euro. More...
Following the weaker than expected IFO data in Germany yesterday focus overnight fell upon the state CPI readings in Germany. The German state of Saxony was the first to post, and quickly added some support to the European fixed income futures as the m/m More...
The USD has traded broadly lower from its Tuesday closes in uneventful activity.
The negative impact of weaker than expected German IFO data yesterday wore off pretty quickly, but has undermined sentiment for the EUR. Comments following the ECB meeting More...
USDCHF failed to break decisively above the 1.10 resistance area and is now testing the support trendline connecint a series of higher lows starting mid July. More...
The EUR has more significant vs. the JPY today as apparently more carry trades are being be unwound. There is also talk that the markets see buying the JPY as a risk aversion trade. The EUR is about steady vs. the GBP and CHF.
The GBP remains vulnerable More...
USD surged on poor German data but trimmed its gains thereafter as oil prices rose and US data were mixed. While US Aug consumer confidence beat consensus, the -15.9% y/y print on June house prices More...
The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as Hurricane Gustav's potential to disrupt production lifted oil prices, supporting the commodity-linked currency. More...
The dollar climbed to six-month highs against the euro on Tuesday, boosted by a jump in U.S. consumer confidence and expectations of euro-zone interest rate cuts as investors braced for a possible recession in the region. More...
The USD is holding well above its Monday Far east opening level but off its highs of the Tuesday 24-hour session.
It was given a strong boost early by weaker than expected German IFO data. The IFO data could start to set the stage for a ECB rate cut ear More...
he USD found some support overnight after the soft German IFO data sent the euro below 1.45. The USD/JPY cross was unable to gain the 110 figure but did bounce more than 50 pips before More...
The EUR has lost significant ground vs. the JPY and CHF today as carry trades continued to be unwound. It is about steady vs. the GBP.
The catalyst for the EUR decline early on was a weaker German IFO survey outcome. More...
Two of the commodity currencies (AUD and NZD) are still lower vs. the USD as carry trades are unwound.
The CAD is holding higher v. the U.S. currency. More...
Long-term price action on the EUR/USD daily chart has come down a long way to approach the very significant uptrend line that has served as dynamic support since at least the beginning of 2006 More...
The dollar surged broadly on Tuesday, hitting a six-month high against the euro as the single currency tumbled after weak German data highlighted frailty in the euro zone economy, fuelling more speculation of a possible interest rate cut. More...
As one might have expected the focus overnight fell upon the German IFO survey for the month of August. All readings fell below consensus expectations, which in turn led to a sharp rise in the European fixed income futures, a solid decline in the EUR/USD, More...
EURUSD (and the other majors) is still trading inside a consolidation range between 1.4650 and 1.4950. On the larger timeframes (daily, weekly) we can see the pair reached the support trendline connecting a higher highs starting early 2006 so a consolidat More...
The better tone of the USD has carried through into early trade on Tuesday. It has been given a strong boost by weaker than expected German IFO data today.
The IFO data could start to set the stage for a ECB rate cut early next year. The ECB may now be More...
The EUR has lost significant ground vs. the JPY today as cayyry trades continue to be unwound. It is alightly weaker vs. the CHF and GBP as well.
The catalyst for the EUR decline has been a weaker German IFO suvey outcome. More...
The better tone of the USD carried through in trade on Monday. The closure of London markets for a holiday subdued Monday activity.
The markets are looking ahead to the release Tuesday of German IFO sentiment data, more U.S. housing data from and the cl More...
The Canadian dollar slipped against the U.S. dollar in lackluster trading on Monday, as equity markets tumbled on credit market fears, lessening the appeal of North American assets and the demand for Canadian dollars to buy them.
More...
USD traded softer to start the week as US stock prices tumbled and despite better than expected housing sales data, though a late squeeze trimmed losses and London’s holiday of course ensured poor liquidity More...
Currency markets are fairly quiet with the Yen showing some relative strength after news of Denmark's ffirst bank bailout in 15-years weighs on demand for higher yielding currencies. More...
The EUR has lost ground on its major JPY, CHF and GBP) crosses today in early trade for the new week.
EUR weakness could reflect nervousness ahead of the German IFO suvey outcome on Tuesday More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) are trading about steady vs. the USD in quiet conditions.
The closure of London markets today has diminished trading interest. More...
Price on the EUR/GBP pair (a daily chart of which is shown) has reached the very top resistance line of a large symmetrical triangle consolidation that has been forming since late March More...
The British pound hit two-year lows against a broadly stronger dollar on Monday, with stalled UK economic activity seen as another example of growing economic malaise outside the United States. More...
On the speaker front the ECB's Trichet said overnight that unlike the Fed, the ECB had to focus only on inflation while responding to the credit crisis. Trichet noted that we are still in More...
The better tone of the USD from the close of lasst weeks seems to have carried forward into trade today. The closure of London markets today for a holiday has subdued activity.
U.S. traders will be looking ahead to the Labor Day holiday on Monday with a More...
The EUR has lost ground on its JPY and CHF crosses in early trade for the new week.
The GBP is steady vs. the EUR in response to a press report indicating that the BOE is unlikely to ease policy before the end of the year and on the London holiday today More...
The pair failed to push lower after the break under the 1.09 support level and jumped back up retesting the 1.10 area and forming an expanding wedge (usually a top formation); with this in mind bearish traders will start considering building a short posit More...
A nearly $7 slide in NYMEX crude oil prices and a not entirely coincidental equity rally (DJIA +198pts) helped USD Index rise 0.8% from London into the NY close. The dollar was also boosted by a news report that Korea Development Bank was considering inve More...
The tightness of the oil to EUR/USD connection has surprised even us. We have hear all sorts of descriptions of the relationship of crude to the key EUR/USD relationship. Often journalists or equity traders say that oil moves in response to EUR/USD change More...
Yet another crisis confronts us, as we will have to deal with the aftermath of a rather large number of bank failures over the next year, which is likely to overwhelm the ability of the FDIC to insure your bank deposits. Today we look at the banking syste More...
The dollar surged on Friday, recovering from the previous day's losses, as gloomy British growth data backed views of a slowing global economy and raised prospects of interest rate cuts outside the United States. More...
The dollar surged on Friday, recovering from the previous day's losses, as gloomy British growth data backed views of a slowing global economy and raised prospects of interest rate cuts outside the United States. More...
The Canadian dollar ended lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday, given a weaker commodity price backdrop, but the big gains it made on Thursday were enough to allow it to close higher for the week. More...
World growth is slowing…
The global economy is slowing down. And some countries could have a recession – or two consecutive quarters of negative growth - including the UK. After world growth of 5% on average in the last four years, thefastest sustain More...
The Greenback was able to find some footing overnight helped by fresh signs of slowing growth across the pond. In the UK preliminary Q2 GDP and exports missed expectations, sending cable lower by some 200 pips to back below 1.86 More...
After the steep plunge in the first half of August on the AUD/USD (a daily chart of which is shown), price has consolidated into a rough inverted flag formation More...
After the US dollar’s sharp rebound in the first half of August, a moderate counter-movement
began a few days ago. EUR-USD recovered from about 1.46 at the start of the week to around 1.4840. The yen made similar gains: USD-JPY fell from 110.50 to just More...
Thursday trade in the USD looks to have been a consolidation session ahead of the long London weekend. The day saw the USD give up a small part of its recent gains. Today should be a subdued session with no data due from the U.S., although Fed Chairman Be More...
The U.S. dollar recovered on Friday from the previous session's sharp losses, buoyed by a pullback in oil prices, stock market gains, and an ailing pound after growth data increased chances of a recession in Britain. More...
The EUR has gained on its crosses in response to the higher USD heading into the weekend. New EZ industrial ordrers a short while ago were weak especially when revisions to the prior data are taken into account. The EUR is better on its JPY, CHF and GBP c More...
All was relatively quiet overnight with most of the focus surrounding second quarter GDP in the UK. The Q/Q reading declined to its lowest level since Q2 of 1992, while the Y/Y reading was the lowest since Q1 of 1993. The data weighed on the GBP, pushing More...
I used to work for a man named Ross Perot back in the early 80’s, during my corporate finance life. You may remember Mr. Perot; he was a colorful character to say the least. More...
NEW --
The U.S. economy continues to slow and still will not have hit a bottom until the housing sector starts to stabilize. One prerequisite for stabilization is the ready availability of mortgage f More...
TORONTO, Aug 21 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar rose well over 1 cent versus the U.S. dollar on Thursday as the price of oil surged and inflation data did not suggest a Bank of Canada interest rate cut on the horizon. More...
Thursday trade in the USD was driven by the price of oil once again. Crude spiked higher on vague political concerns regarding the Georgian situation. Note that inventory data this week should not been constructive for crude prices.
Concerns about the U More...
Price action on GBP/USD appears to have respected and bounced up off the long-term uptrend line after a week-long period of consolidation right at the line More...
The USD has put in a nice reversal of the recent uptrend as rising commodity prices once again add to the pressure on the Greenback. Early in the NY session broad strength could be seen in the JPY as risk aversion seemed to be the major theme carrying thr More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) are trading up sharply vs. the USD led higher by oil prices spiking sharply higher.
Canadian July consumer prices were relatively tame, and in line with expectations and support the view that monetary policy is l More...
Cable rose in the day to face a stiff Ressitance at 1.87, a level it tested a couple of times over. However, Cable failed at the Resistance and has come off since then to trade at 1.8630. In the..... More...
PMI readings were weaker overnight, with the German manufacturing PMI breaking just below the key mark of 50 for the first time in three years as both the output and new orders components contracted. Continued signs that the German economy will not prove More...
USDCHF pushed higher since our latest commentary topping the previous high but failing to close above it; the 1.10 resistance proved to be tough and kept the pair under it. More...
Under the circumstances, dealers say that the USD has been holding remarkably well in the midst of all the worries about the capitalization of mortgage giants Freddie and Fannie. Nevertheless, the USD broadly has had weak tone early on Thursday, especiall More...
The EUR trading sharply weaker on its JPY cross. Risk aversion is being cited today. Erurozone flash PMI figures were better than expected but still well below the 50 boom or bust line. The GBP is steady vs. the EUR but is still seen as vulnerable to the More...
The dollar fell on Thursday, pulling back sharply from this week's eight-month highs versus a basket of currencies as inflamed concerns about the U.S. financial sector and rising oil put a chink in its rally. More...
In a session devoid of US data, the US dollar looked to equity and oil prices for inspiration, which ultimately left it little changed. Oil was most lively, whipping around between $112.61/bbl and $117.03/bbl but at $115 in late New York time was up only More...
The Canadian dollar ended flat against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, taking a hit from June retail sales data and a retreat by oil prices later in the session, which gave traders an opportunity to take profits on the greenback. More...
Trade in the USD Wednesday was driven by the price of oil once again. For unexplained reasons, crude spiked higher just before the release of the weekly energy inventories. But it then got slammed lower after following an unexpected +9.4 mn increase in cr More...
The U.S. dollar rose on Wednesday, snapping a two-day losing streak, supported by perceptions that slowing global economic growth would prompt a wave of interest rate cuts outside the United States. More...
The EUR now trading weaker on its JPY crosses. This followed a strong USD advance vs. the EUR following a mid-session sharp decline in oil.
The GBP is steady vs. the EUR but is still seen as vulnerable to the deteriorating U.K. economy. The vote at the More...
In what amounts to a continuing low-volatility consolidation in the major pairs, EUR/USD (an hourly chart of which is shown) has formed a short-term parallel downtrend channel More...
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) are trading mixed vs. the USD. The AUD is higher while CAD and the NZD are about steady.
Canadian June retail sales were in line with market expections and support the view that monetary policy is likely to remai More...
The Pound dipped to near 1.8539 during the day today, just above our projected Max Low for the Day which comes in at 1.8530. Please take a look at our At a Glance sheet at http://kshitij.com More...
As is typical of the post-earnings season rush markets were quiet overnight. Minutes from the Bank of England's August 7th policy-setting meeting were the biggest release overnight, but failed to wake up the sleepy August markets. The minutes did however More...
The long-awaited correction of the recent advance finally arrived on Tuesday. The question today is whether that adjustment still has further to go. As of the past couple of hours the EUR/USD has eased back in range of the 1.4700 line from above 1.4750 ea More...
The dollar held near a 2008 high set the previous session against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday, as investor bearishness on the global economic outlook prompted a view that rates outside the U.S. may be cut. More...
Although the pair broke the support trendline that marked a succession of higher lows on the 4 hour chart we can still expect the 1.0900 area to provide enough support for a new move higher towards the 1.10 level. More...
The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as the greenback weakened due to market doubts that the U.S. Federal Reserve would be able to raise interest rates to control inflation because higher rates might amplify the country's economic w More...
The US dollar remained in favour in early overnight trade, with the US July PPI even higher than expected. But equity losses extended, ultimately pulling the USD lower, about -0.7% from the NY morning highs. More...
The U.S. dollar fell for a second day on Tuesday, hit by a bout of profit-taking after recent sharp gains, as crude oil prices rose and stocks on Wall Street sagged on renewed worries about the financial sector. More...
The USD advanced early on Tuesday but then tumbled after the markets pushed the unit too high after a hotter than expected PPI report. This came on the heels earlier of a mixed to weak ZEW survey. The EUR/USD overnight made a new low for the move (1.4630) More...
If the US is anything in its history it is naive. Sometimes being naive helps and sometimes it hurts. It helps when problems that it confronts would never even be attempted to be solved by a more cynical society – Britain comes to mind. More...
As shown on the accompanying USD/CAD 4-Hour chart, price action on this pair has formed both a steep uptrend support line and a flag pattern since the forceful bullish run in the dollar began several More...
Cable had dipped earlier in the day to a low of 1.8539, however, a sharp buying interest from there has resulted in a bounce to 1.8620 since then. For the day, 1.8675-8700 is a strong Resistance and.. More...
In currencies the GBP was broadly softer during the European session sparked by comments from the BOE's Beasley. The GBP/USD broke below the 1.86 level to rested last week's low of 1.8510 before consolidation. More...
Cable started once again to move lower, although we did expect it to stay around current level for a while longer if not even retrace. 1 hour chart displaying the last few days show the pair trading inside the 1.8800 and 1.85 making lower lows and forming More...
The dollar renewed its broad rally on Tuesday, lifted to its highest 2008 level against a basket of currencies by falling commodity prices and continuing worries about slowing global economic growth. More...
The USD has advanced early on Tuesday following a mixed to weak ZEW survey. The EUR/USD overnight made a new low for the move (1.4630). The markets seem to be showing once again that those looking for a bounce in the EUR/USD might be ahead of the markets. More...
The US dollar wandered in tight ranges with an eye on commodities, overall pressing a little higher late in New York for modest gains. These came despite a poor start to the week on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones traded down about -200pts late, weighed More...
The Canadian dollar fell 0.5 percent against the U.S. dollar on Monday, after the commodity-based currency gave up earlier gains as oil prices softened. More...
The U.S. dollar eased off a seven-month peak against the yen on Monday, halting an 11-day advance against a basket of currencies, as falling stocks and rebounding gold saw investors skim profits off a recent rally. More...
The USD fell early on Monday heading into early trade for the new week. It tried an N.Y. session advance again, but this time that trade did not work.
Note also that the Georgian situation seems finally to be cooling off, with a Russian withdrawal expec More...
The USD continues to consolidate it recent gains among the majors in a quiet, listless session. Higher oil and gold prices are helping to quell the dollar's recent surge. Oil probed into negative territory a few times but climbed back higher following com More...
After the severe drop that occurred last week, this pair has corrected somewhat and consolidated into what currently appears to be an inverted pennant formation More...
As expected, the Support in the day at 1.09 has held and produced a bounce towards 1.0980 so far in the day.
Going ahead this week could see further rise, provided the US Housing Starts does...... More...
The dollar eased from a six-month high against the euro on Monday as an overnight recovery in oil and commodity prices spurred investors to take profit on the U.S. currency's dramatic rally. More...
Oil prices have fallen back quite sharply from a peak of close to $150 a barrel just a month ago to around $112 presently. But in real terms (adjusted for price inflation) oil prices have risen in the last five years to exceed the peak levels of the oil-i More...
After firming through the Asian trading session the Euro ran into resistance at 1.4770. The pair failed a number of times to break through the price level despite the dollar weakening on higher oil prices, which rose at one point above $115. Crude would e More...
Swissy failed at the first attempt to break above the 1.10 resistance level and retraced to retest the 1.09 support area; we have marked on the chart the two trendlines that signaled the latest move higher and also mark the closest support. More...
·In currencies the USD consolidated its recent gains among the majors in a quiet, listless session. Higher oil and gold prices helped weigh sentiment on the USD. There were some calls that perhaps OPEC should cut back on output when it next meets in Sept More...
The USD has fallen heading into early trade for the new week. Some are saying that a pause is only natural given the extent of its recent gains. Furthermore, the Georgian situation colud be cooling with a Russian withdrawal expected (once again) in the ne More...
The Euro Bubble FX Solutions Monday August 18, 2008 - 04:15:22 GMT
An extension of the rout in (most) commodities plus unthreatening US economic data helped USD consolidate its London morning gains, albeit in sometimes whippy trade. Hedges against a weak dollar were further unwound, including platinum -8%, silver -10% wh More...
As noted last week, all kinds of bubbles have been bursting in August. The big ones have been in oil, gold, the commodity currencies and the EUR/USD. The most important development has been the EUR/USD penetration of its 200-day moving average at 1.5235. More...
The old mantra was that if the United States sneezed, the rest of the world would catch a cold, as the US was seen as the main driver of world growth. That was then. Economists and analysts began to argue that China and the developing markets were startin More...
Stronger-than-expected manufacturing figures helped lift the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar on Friday, while bond prices took their cue from a rising U.S. Treasury market. More...
The best case against the dollar continuing its rise is that it hascome a long way in a short time, with the euro falling nearly 1400 points in one month, an 8.6% drop and 6.5% since the start of the month More...
GVI Forex BLog - Global-View.com Friday August 15, 2008 - 17:49:01 GMT
During Friday's New York session the USD extended its gains against the euro while consolidating against the other majors. The firm USD tone continues to be aided by the depressed metals and energy related commodities. More...
Although most technical signals on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, are indicating extremely exhausted and oversold conditions, downward momentum currently appears almost unstoppable More...
The dollar continued to gain ground against almost all major currencies this week. EUR-USD
slipped further to 1.4720. Cable fell a further 7 cents and by the end of the week was only 1.86 – a 21 month low. Since mid-July, the UK currency has lost over More...
The dollar raced to a six-month high against the euro on Friday, propelled by growing worries about the health of the euro zone economy and further lifted by liquidation in commodity markets. More...
Despite a barren economic calendar, the Euro fell to nearly a six month low when it touched the 1.4700 handle. Dollar bulls got a boost from U.S. inflation rising to 5.6% and a report from Goldman Sachs that proclaimed the dollar had bottomed.
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Gold plunged below $800 an ounce for the first time since late December 2007 and spot silver prices were off as much as 12% during the early European hours. Other commodities exhibited weakness as oil, copper and corn slumped on the back of the USD's cont More...
EURUSD has formed a continuation triangle on the 4 hour charts and after a fake breakout of the upper line it started to move lower pushing below 1.4800 where we see it consolitating in the Asian session. More...
The EUR/USD has fallen sharply again to start on Friday from late Thursday levels. Odds are that large short USD positions continue to be closed out. The problem for trading is that the markets continue to be reluctant to establish long USD positions. Unt More...
The US Dollar index finally managed to rise above critical resistance from a falling trendline connecting the late 2005 – 2007 highs, indicating that the currency’s rally is not over quite yet. However, More...
The Canadian dollar handed backearly gains to close modestly lower against the U.S. dollar for
the first time in three sessions on Thursday due to weaker oil prices and data that showed signs of More...
USD/majors traded quietly in London until the US data. The combination of higher inflation and elevated jobless claims sparked a bout of dollar selling on stagflation fears, as equity futures swung into the red. More...
The U.S. dollar rallied to an almost six-month high against the euro on Thursday amid growing concern over euro zone economic weakness and accelerating inflation in the United States. More...
The EUR/USD has tumbled in N.Y. from late Wednesday levels. An early attempt to push the EUR/USD higher after a hotter than expected CPI report ran out of steam and then set the stage for a run at stops below the market. One catalyst for the higher USD wa More...
In currencies, the market returned to a two-way factor as the USD consolidated from its recent gains over the last week. The much hyped European Union GDP data ended up as a side show this morning as the euro price action dominated traders' attention, More...
The European session was marked by progression of GDP data, highlighted by the German GDP. The Q2 German GDP fell 0.5% Q/Q to register its first contraction in 4 years. Several factors were attributed to the negative GDP from the stronger euro and slower More...
USDJPY confirmed the support at 108.50 and bounced nicely from it after making a daily low at 108.35; from now on we can expect a continuation of the bullish move towards the 110 area and once above that we can look at the top line of the channel around t More...
The Euro saw choppy trading throughout the overnight sessions after bouncing from support at 1.4850. Despite, the European GDP report confirming market expectations that the economy contracted 0.2% in the second quarter from a 0.7% increase the quarter pr More...
The EUR/USD is heading into N.Y. higher from late Wednesday levels. The EUR/USD to oil link seems to be breaking down as the EUR/USD should be stronger with crude remaining well bid. Developments in Georgia remain a background factor as Russian forces sho More...
USD/majors seesawed in London/NY, struggling with lukewarm US retail sales, equity losses and a bounce in oil prices to ultimately only post convincing gains against GBP. By late NY, cable sat about 3 cents lower (1.8700 area) as markets digested the BoE More...
The Canadian dollar rose nearly 1 cent from its overnight low against the U.S. dollar, given a lofty commodity price backdrop, but closed flat on Wednesday due to the magnitude of the loss it had More...
The U.S. dollar edged lower against the euro on Wednesday after a spike in crude oil prices rekindled worries about the world's largest economy's growth outlook. More...
The EUR/USD is still holding about steady from late Tuesday levels as of the N.Y. closing on Wednesday. New Concerns about developments in Georgia were rekindled over the day as Russian forces resumed their push into the country were not a majer market fa More...
In currencies, the GBP/USD pair dropped to its lowest level since October 2006 after the BoE's quarterly inflation report highlighted concerns among centrals banks regarding the delicate balance between growth and inflation. More...
The deep and rapid plunge in price within the last two weeks on GBP/USD (a daily chart of which is shown), has brought the pair all the way down to the key long-term uptrend support line. More...
Sterling fell to its lowest in almost two years against the dollar on Wednesday after the Bank of England signalled it could cut interest rates sooner rather than later, a drop which set the stage for a broad dollar rally. More...
The UK quarterly inflation report highlighted the recent concerns among centrals banks of the delicate balance between growth and inflation. The BOE lowered their GDP outlook for 2009 and expected that a protracted slowdown was necessary to bring CPI back More...
The Pound fell nearly 100 points after BoE Governor stated that the U.K. economy faces a difficult, painful adjustment and that the “balance of risks are on the downside”. The central bank leader would go on to say that although near term inflation ri More...
GBPUSD on the weekly/daily charts reached a support trendline connecting August 2007 swing low and January 2008 low , trendline that is the lower side of a down sloping channel. More...
The EUR/USD is trading about steady from late Tuesday levels. Concerns about developments in Georgia have started to wane as a market factor. The half-life of political events usually tends to be short, as forex markets tend to be driven by new headlines. More...
The Canadian dollar finished higher against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, snapping a seven-session losing skid as data showed Canada's trade surplus widened in June thanks to the commodity price boom. More...
The U.S. dollar slipped against the euro on Tuesday, breaking a five-session rally as investors locked in profits ahead of key economic data later in the week.
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The EUR/USD is trading up slightly from late Monday levels. Concern about developments in Georgia started to wane, as the conflict started to cool. This is a case where actions will be speaking louder than words. The price of oil was closely followed agai More...
With recent dollar-strengthening, price on the USD/JPY daily chart, as shown, has reached up to approach resistance at the uptrend line (in green) that has defined price action since mid-March More...
The dollar hit a six-month high against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, benefiting from weakness in commodities, as investors looked beyond U.S. growth worries to a slowing global economy. More...
In currencies, the USD continued to benefit from lower commodity prices. EUR/USD tested the 1.4820 during Asian. Dealer did note that some sovereign names returned to buying Euros. More...
The Pound failed to break below the 1.8970 price level twice during the overnight session, finding support each time. Surprisingly the second test cam after U.K. inflation data printed hotter than expected at 4.2% against 4.0%. It was the highest level si More...
The EUR/USD is trading about steady from late Monday levels as the markets continue to focus on developments in Georgia. The EUR/USD recovered about an hour ago following word that Russia had ordered a cessation of military operatons. This is a case where More...
After a brief setback on hawkish ECB comments in London, USD quickly resumed its upwards march. Again, this came despite an empty US data calendar as USD enjoys “least worst” status. Commodities came under heavy pressure once more, with gold price act More...
The Canadian dollar opened the week with a lower close versus the U.S. dollar on Monday as the
slide in oil prices rattled the commodity-linked currency, which has fallen in all but one session in t More...
The U.S. dollar rallied to a five-and-a-half month high against the euro on Monday, boosted by another drop in crude oil prices and speculation that the slowdown blighting the U.S. economy was spreading worldwide More...
The EUR/USD turned south in the North American session on Monday after earlier recovering modestly from late Friday levels early Monday, as naturally the markets had looked for the sharp dollar gains seen late last week to be consolidated. A break in oil More...
n currencies, dealers continue to assess the recent technical damage in various European and emerging market pairs against the USD. The EUR/USD cross tested below the 1.4970 level, which was a key pivot point last November. More...
Price action on the key EUR/JPY cross (a daily chart of which is shown), has performed a throwback to the downtrend line (represented by the long red line) that it broke in early June. More...
In currencies ECB's Liebscher reiterated that the inflation battle remains intact which helped the Euro regain a foothold above the 1.50 area. Liebscher stated that the recent drop in oil prices were welcomed, but it was difficult to project just if the p More...
After falling below 1.500 for the first time since February 27, the Euro rallied above 1.5050 on hawkish comments from outgoing ECB council member Kluas Liebscher. The veteran policy maker reiterated the MPC’s focus on p[rice stability and said that the More...
The UK quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) is due this week, providing updated medium-term projections for GDP growth and CPI inflation. UK economic data features CPI inflation for July, which may hit a record high of 4.6%. Publication of eurozone GDP may sh More...
The dollar scaled new multi-month highs on Monday as traders reassessed whether the slowdown that has already hit the U.S. economy would show up elsewhere in the world but it then succumbed to sharp profit-taking. More...
The EUR/USD has recovered modestly from late Friday levels early Monday as naturally the markets are looking for the sharp dollar gains seen late last week to be consolidated. More...
Broadly, it appears as though bubbles are bursting everywhere to the benefit of the USD and JPY. As suggested a week ago, the fortunes of the USD have been tied to the performance of crude oil. The crude market is in a bear pattern so the EUR/USD is final More...
USD extended its gains across the board, with DXY adding another 0.9% to its highest levels since 21 February. A 303pt surge in the DJIA helped on a day with no notable US economic data. Oil dropped about $4/bbl vs late Asia-Pac trade, to its lowest close More...
Last week's letter was the first part of a speech I have been giving on what I think will be the rise of a new asset class. This week will be the second and final part. Let me set up this section with a few paragraphs from last week's letter and then a qu More...
This week, several of the world’s most important central banks announced their interest rate policy. Yet, despite their different economic circumstances, they all decided to keep rates unchanged. More...
The Canadian dollar closed at its lowest level in nearly a year versus a rallying U.S. dollar on Friday after data showed Canada shed more jobs in July than at any other time since the recession in 1991. More...
The dollar rallied on Friday, posting its biggest one-day gain versus the euro in 7-1/2 years as the market repriced interest rate views amid signs the U.S. slowdown was spilling over to the global economy. More...
On the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, a massive breakdown of the horizontal trading range that price has been traversing for the past 5 months has finally occurred. More...
During the course of the week, the dollar strengthened against almost all major currencies. USD-JPY rose to nearly 110, whereas EUR-USD is now only around 1.51. The pound Sterling dropped by about 6 cents to 1.92. More...
During the course of the week, the dollar strengthened against almost all major currencies. USD-JPY rose to nearly 110, whereas EUR-USD is now only around 1.51. The pound Sterling dropped by about 6 cents to 1.92. More...
During the course of the week, the dollar strengthened against almost all major currencies. USD-JPY rose to nearly 110, whereas EUR-USD is now only around 1.51. The pound Sterling dropped by about 6 cents to 1.92. The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian More...
The Euro continued to slide against the greenback during overnight trading dropping below the 1.5200 handle hitting a five month low on the back of dovish comments from President Trichet, following yesterday’s ECB rate decision. More...
The USD sustained its momentum as dealers assessed the ECB's change in tone during Thursday's press conference. The USD advance during Asia and European sessions was largely 'technically based' as key levels gave way. More...
As seen on the weekly chart displayed below we are in for a record week of gains of the USD against Euro and GBP; breaking support levels on both pairs makes you wonder how long can this move last and where it is headed. More...
The dollar rallied on Friday, hitting a five-month high against the euro as the European Central Bank's caution on its growth outlook shifted the focus of economic concerns from the United States to the rest of the world. More...
The EUR/USD has fallen sharply today as hedgers and diversifiers into the common currency are starting to throw in the towel. Position liquidations tend to be more powerful than accumulations of positions because once someone has decided to pull the plug More...
The Canadian dollar skidded to a lower close versus the U.S. dollar for the 11th time in the past 12 sessions on Thursday and the sudden downturn for the once-resilient currency showed no signs of More...
The offshore session saw more of the same for the USD with recent outperformance continuing. After a fairly quiet London morning US rate futures started rallying on rumours of US aircraft movement in the Gulf. More...
The EUR/USD, after rebounding early on Thursday on a bounce in oil prices, plummeted following press comments by ECB President Trichet. Trichet spoke out of both sides of his mouth indicating that the ECB knew that the economy was slowing when it decided More...
The U.S. dollar rose broadly and hit a 5-1/2-month high against a basket of currencies on Thursday, bolstered by a surprise rise in June home sales and diminished expectations for euro zone interest rate increases. More...
While I am not going to say markets have this one wrong, I will say that large price movements like the one down in commodities and up in US dollar have a way of creating their own realities that often do not hold up over time. More...
With the recent pronounced rally in the USD/CHF (a daily chart of which is shown), price has reached significant resistance at the juncture of two different resistance factors. More...
The Pound was virtually unchanged following the announcement that the BoE left their benchmark unchanged at 5.00% as they continue to weigh the downside risks to the economy against inflation rising More...
Overall bearish bias is prevalent, however, the pair seems to have paused to take a breath before continuing its bear run.
In the day, it continues to face Resistance at 0.9120-33, however, .... More...
USDJPY finally broke above the the range it has traded in for the last few weeks and once it broke 108.50 it pushed through to reach the 110 level; there is still plenty of room to move until we get close to the upper side of the bullish channel marked on More...
The dollar weakened broadly on Thursday as dealers took profit from its recent gains ahead of two major interest rate decisions in Europe, and as oil prices stemmed their recent slide to three-month lows.
More...
The EUR/USD has rebounded early on Thursday heading into New York trade. Dealers seemed already to have been set up for the ECB and BOE policy decisions in a short while. Both the ECB and BOE are expected to keep key rates steady. A key focus for the ECB More...
The EUR/USD recovered modestly early in the day Wednesday, but then fell to new lows for the move in New York trade. Dealers seem already to be setting up for the ECB and BOE policy decisions on Thursday. Both the ECB and BOE are expected to keep key rate More...
The Canadian dollar fell more than half a cent to a fresh 11-month low versus the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as the downdraft in commodity prices continued to rattle the currency.
More...
The U.S. dollar rose for a fourth straight day to a seven-month peak versus the yen and a six week high against the euro on Wednesday, as the slide in oil prices to a new three month low raised hopes economic growth would pick up and inflation would subsi More...
The US dollar enjoyed broad gains in London/NY despite whippy price action on oil and equities, though both were dollar-positive by late NY. Traders noted that USD Index has pushed above its 200 day moving average. More...
The USD has been exhibiting strength throughout the New York morning as weak German factory orders confirm creeping speculation that Germany's Q2 GDP could be turn negative. Reportedly a German government source stated that Q2 GDP is seen down 0.75-1.5%, More...
EURUSD has moved lower pretty convincingly after a retest of the 1.55 resistance area and it is still trading inside the bearish channel we've been fallowing for the last few days. More...
After much anticipation, price on the USD/JPY daily chart, as shown, has just made a swift breakout above the key resistance level around 108.50-108.60. More...
The Euro was weighed below 1.5470 as German factory orders unexpectedly fell 2.9% in June, dragging the annualized rate down 6.1%. German factories saw demand from abroad declined 5.1% as a More...
The dollar hit a seven-month high against the yen on Wednesday as a signal from the Federal Reserve that interest rates would stay low for some time lifted U.S. stocks and offered hope that its policy would support the U.S. economy. More...
The EUR/USD has recovered modestly vs. late Tuesday levels in N.Y. Dealers are now looking for some direction from the ECB and BOE policy decisions on Thursday. Both the ECB and BOE are expected to keep key rates steady. A key focus for the ECB will be th More...
The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 2.00 percent – as expected – but as usual, it was the FOMC’s policy statement that made all the difference for the US dollar. The Committee essentially said that they would leave rates steady at 2.00 perce More...
Supported by strong gains on the DJIA (+300pts in late NY trade) and lower oil prices, USD rallied firmly in London/NY before easing back slightly on the somewhat dovish FOMC statement (downside risks to growth no longer “diminished” and still only on More...
The Canadian dollar stumbled toits lowest level in nearly 11 months against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as oil prices fell further from last month's record and put more focus on slowing global growth.
More...
The dollar climbed to seven-week peaks against the euro and a major currency basket on Tuesday, as oil prices plunged and the Federal Reserve maintained its focus on quelling persistent U.S. inflation pressure in the economy. More...
Lower commodity prices aided the dollar throughout the European morning as oil continues to consolidate around the $120 level and spot Gold hovers below its 200-day moving average of $890.66. It seems that the catalyst for this most recent commodity plung More...
In currencies the commodity picture helped the USD to firm during the European morning as oil elected massive sell stops orders below the $119.70-level to briefly test $118.00, while spot Gold fell More...
The Euro fell below the 1.550 handle for the first time since June 24, as short interest built ahead of the retail sales release. The EURUSD had been in a steady decline since the U.S. trading session which accelerated throughout the Asian trading session More...
The EUR/USD is trading down sharply vs. late Monday levels in N.Y. Dealers say that the EUR lost some of its shine after crude oil broke decisively below the $120 line today. The key focus is the FOMC policy statement later today. No rate change is widely More...
Pushed by not so good news regarding the UK banking sector, among others, the Pound has given back most of the June and July gains, and it's heading even lower towards the years low at 1.9350. More...
The dollar rose to a 7-week peak against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, drawing support from a sharp drop in oil prices ahead of an interest rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve. More...
The US dollar has been rallying against the world’s most heavily traded currencies on speculation the United States Federal Reserve could open the door for a series of rate hikes in the months ahead. However, with the US economy remaining fragile, is th More...
The overnight session was mostly cautious as little fresh capital was committed ahead of the FOMC meeting. The main excitement was when a dollar sell-off was reversed by a sharp >$4/bbl plunge in NYMEX oil prices, with rumours swirling of commodity hedge More...
The dollar rose against the yen on Monday as the oil price's drop to a three-month low and some upbeat U.S. economic data generated optimism about the prospects of the broader economy.
More...
The EUR/USD is trading higher vs. late Friday levels in N.Y. an about steady from pre-opening N.Y. prices. Dealers say that while the EUR has lost some of its shine, that there still is no compelling reason to rush into the USD. A question also to conside More...
It does not take special powers or an Ivy League education to realize the Fed does not always get the economy or monetary policy right. Greenspan holding rates at 1% for far too long and ignoring More...
The dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Monday as oil prices sold off and a gauge of U.S. core inflation closely watched by the Federal Reserve rose more than expected. More...
In currencies, one dealer best described the price action on Monday as clearly lacking in conviction. Firmer euro crosses seem to be the underlying driver in the session, helping to squeeze on EUR/USD higher. More...
As noted on a previous Chart of the Day a week ago, price on the USD/CAD daily chart, as shown, was on the brink of breaking out above a long-term downtrend resistance line (in red) More...
The Euro spent the overnight trading sessions stuck in a tight trading range between 1.5525-1.5560, despite producer prices printing at the highest level in 18 years, as FOMC and ECB decisions loom. More...
In currencies the GBP was weaker in the European morning as various weekend press article noted the fragility of the economy. The shadow MPC voted 5-4 with the majority seeking to maintain rates. More...
The US Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England are widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at 2%, 4.25% and 5%, respectively, this week. This is due to continuing signs of slow GDP growth, but rising inflation, in turn, is inhibiting cuts. More...
USDCHF has not broken outside the bullish channel marked on our charts and is trading between 1.0450 and 1.05 after establishing these levels as short term support and resistance. More...
The EUR/USD is trading higher vs. late Friday levels in N.Y. In spite of weak Eurozone data last week, there still is no compelling reason to rush into the USD. This is a key week for central bank decisions. Although no rate changes are expected in any ca More...
USD bounced on the milder than expected fall in employment in July (-51K) butstruggled to maintain its positive tone, with equities weaker, oil higher and focus on the higher than expected unemployment rate (5.7%, highest since Jan 2004). More...
We have been noting the shaky state of the USD in recent weeks, even as it had been recovering. Underlying weakness in the currency in the short run has been coming from the uneven state of the U.S. economy. Support has also come from the recent tumble in More...
I think we're at a watershed moment, what Peter Bernstein defines as an "epochal event," with the very order of the investment world changing as it did in 1929, in '50, in 1981, where a number of things came together - it wasn't just one thing but a numbe More...
The U.S. dollar climbed to five-week peaks against the euro and three-week highs against the British pound on Friday as better-than-expected economic data allayed worries about a much sharper slowdown. More...
The US dollar’s consolidation continued on Friday as US non-farm payrolls (NFPs) failed to have a lasting impact on the currency. While the currency did initially jump across the majors on the news that NFPs were not quite as bad as expected at -51K (co More...
The Canadian dollar fell againstthe U.S. dollar on Friday, its eighth decline in the past nine
sessions, after recent data pointed to a stumbling economy and More...
The euro is losing steam. It did not even manage to breach 1.60 in mid-July when the credit crisis intensified in the US. Since then, the euro has been weakening. Towards the end of the week, it had fallen to a mere 1.56. More...
The dollar neared a one-month high against the euro on Friday before crucial U.S. jobs data, which some in the market said may surprise on the upside following an upbeat employment reading earlier this week. More...
In currencies the focus will be US payrolls data due out later today. In the hours leading up to the key data, the USD has encountered a consolidating tone. The USD was supported by a growing consensus that the Euro-Zone economic situation is 'less robust More...
The EUR/USD is trading higher vs. late Thursday levels in N.Y. Weak Eurozone and PMI and German retail sales data have been a weight on the EUR. Nevertheless dealers are setting up for a weak non-farm payroll report shortly. Much weaker than expected and More...
After a very quiet London morning things heated up once New York came in. First, and most importantly, we had weak Q2 US GDP data, with revisions also to the weak side, along with a surge in weekly jobless claims to a >5 year high (albeit with quirks in t More...
The US dollar has appreciated in recent weeks, as overnight index swaps signal that traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 75 basis points over the course of the next eight FOMC meetings. However, More...
The Canadian dollar closed lower against the U.S. dollar for the sixth time in the past seven days on Thursday as a report showed Canada's economy unexpectedly shrank in May, dashing hopes the Bank More...
The EUR/USD is trading about steady vs. late Wednesday levels in N.Y. in choppy conditions. Dealers are now setting up for non-farm payroll data on Friday. Much weaker than expected and weekly jobless data today as an indication that the economy remains a More...
The dollar retreated from recent one-month highs against the euro on Thursday, as lingering doubts over the health of the U.S. economy capped upside progress for the currency. More...
The USD started off the European session on a soft tone as Wednesday's crude oil rally slowly ebbed away recent bullish momentum. However, the USD steadied itself as both oil and gold retreated from their opening highs. FX dealers noted good Euro demand f More...
The EUR/USD is trading higher vs. late Wednesday levels in N.Y. in choppy conditions. Dealers are now setting up for non-farm payroll data on Friday and will look at the tone of weekly jobless data today as an indication of the strength of the economy eve More...
Looking at the EURUSD daily chart two things are clear, we got very close to a major support trendline while the pair formed a doji like bar on Wednesday and the stochastic oscillator got into oversold area and it's beginning to turn. More...
The USD remained bid in the overnight session on a lower gold price (5 week lows), then announcement of changes to securities loan programs from the Fed, ECB and SNB, and then a continued equity bounce. More...
Positive economic data has continued to drive the US dollar higher. Payroll provider ADP reported a 9k rise in jobs this month. As one of the leading indicators for non-farm payrolls, this along with stronger consumer confidence numbers is good news goi More...
The Canadian dollar eked out a gain against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, ending a six-session slide, as higher oil prices lent the commodity-based currency some support. More...
The U.S. dollar continued its recovery of the past ten days on Wednesday, buoyed by an upbeat private sector jobs report for July and ongoing efforts by central bank officials to ease stress More...
The EUR/USD is now trading about unchanged vs. late Tuesday levels in N.Y. Wednesday has been a volatile session with the pair maimly following the ups and downs of oil prices. A stronger than expected ADP jobs report was dismissed by the market. This rep More...
The USD resumed its recent rally after consolidating earlier gains throughout the European morning. Lower metal prices and the positive ADP reading are aiding the initial dollar firmness. Dealer chatter has focused on differences between ADP employment re More...
As of this writing, EUR/USD (the daily chart of which is shown) has hit a key dynamic support level in the form of a relatively long-term uptrend support line. More...
The dollar held near one-month highs against a basket of currencies and the yen on Wednesday, aided by rallying share prices and a drop in oil, but nagging worries about the U.S. financial sector capped sentiment. More...
In currencies the USD consolidated its recent gains against the majors overnight. The GBP tested and held its former June pivot point of 1.9770, while the EUR/USD hovered around the 1.56-handle More...
After collapsing for nearly 200 points in yesterday’s trade the EURUSD spent most of the night quietly consolidating its losses in a 1.5560-1.5600 range. More...
The EUR/USD is trading modestly higher vs. late Tuesday levels in N.Y. The focus is now turning to the U.S. employment situation with the July ADP private job survey due on Wednesday, weekl jobless due on Thursday and the non-farm payroll data set for a F More...
The New Zealand dollar started the overnight session on the back foot after an announcement by NZ Guardian Trust. This continued as the USD regained Monday’s losses on the back of softer oil prices and given a better performance from the US equity marke More...
The Canadian dollar trickled lower against the U.S. dollar for a sixth-straight session on Tuesday, its longest losing streak in nearly a year and a half, due in part to a stronger greenback and More...
The EUR/USD is trading sharply lower vs. late Monday levels in N.Y. The focus from late Monday was on the new write-downs by MER and the lower than expected prices that were accepted for its troubled assets. The markets kept a close watch on oil prices ov More...
The dollar soared to a one-month high against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, benefiting from a steep drop in oil prices and an unexpected rise in U.S. consumer confidence. More...
The dollar rallied to its best levels during the New York morning as lower commodity prices aided the greenback. Dealers attributed the soft commodity tone to the interest rate hike at the Indian Central Bank. More...
In currencies the risk aversion theme was the initial concern, following Merrill Lynch's announcement of an additional $5.7B write-down in Q3. The USD was little changed, but dealer chatter was focuse More...
The EUR/USD is trading about steady vs. late Monday levels in N.Y. The focus late Monday was on the new write-downs br MER and the lower than expected prices that were accepted for its troubled assets. The markets today will keep a close watch on the equi More...
Cable is forming a bullish flag formation on the 4 hour charts, the pair traded inside a small bearish channel for the past 2 weeks and it looks like once it gets above the 2.00 it'll have enough energy to pus higher towards the 2.03 and 2.05 the projecte More...
The USD was broadly softer during the overnight session, as oil prices rose almost $US2/barrel off what had been multi week lows and European equities were softer ahead of European bank earnings later in the week. More...
The Canadian dollar slipped to its weakest close in six weeks against the U.S. dollar on Monday, extending a slow slide driven by concerns about More...
The EUR/USD put in a strong session on Monday. Someone noted toady that it was “all about stocks” in an otherwise thin summer session with no key data released. The crude oil market was watched closely. There was talk that the Russians had been good b More...
In currencies, the USD continued it mild looses against the majors, but is off its worst level as oil pares its gains. Comments from an NBC interview snippet with Iran's president helped to offset the earlier supply concerns following an attack on a Niger More...
The dollar drops off its multi-week highs following comments from Minneapolis Fed president Gary Stern to the Financial Times overnight indicating that the US credit squeeze is likely to persist for many months and might even get worse. More...
After hitting a significant support resistance level at around 1.5630 late last week, price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, has made a clear bounce up off that support More...
In currencies the USD was mildly softer against the Euro, Swiss, and yen related pairs as oil moved higher on renewed supply concerns following an attack on a Nigerian pipeline. More...
The dollar slipped broadly on Monday, losing some of the momentum built after upbeat U.S. housing and consumer sentiment data late last week, as investors concluded that the U.S. economic climate remained poor. More...
With UK economic growth slowing and the housing market weakening, the call for government
action is rising. In the US, they have cut taxation by nearly 2% and slashed interest rates by 3.25
percentage points to 2%. But the UK economy is in a different p More...
EURUSD has been confined inside the 1.5650/1.5750 range for the last trading days of the previous week, bouncing from the support line but nor managing to push any higher then the 1.5750 area(the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). More...
The EUR/USD has improved heading into NY trade on Monday. This looks to be another thin summer session today with no key data slated for release. Quiet trade does not mean that prices will not be volatile. A choppy session could be in store. With not much More...
USD gained some ground Friday night on better than expected US data (durable goods orders, new home sales and Uni of Michigan consumer sentiment all beat consensus) but the dollar’s gains proved modest overall as equity sentiment was hurt by ratings age More...
At the end of week before last, it had appeared that the tone of the USD was starting to improve. It was looking a bit shakier at the start of the latest week, but then turned higher as the price of oil started to tumble. Markets feel that falling energy More...
A theme in this letter for many years has been that over time markets of all descriptions revert to the mean. The classic definition of mean reversion is "the behavior of a variable in which the values for that variable move towards the long-run average v More...
The U.S. dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Friday, after a trio of better-than-expected data injected a dose of optimism aboutthe U.S. economy. More...
In the middle of this month, financial markets made a U-turn. In the first half of July rising oil
prices and fear of a systemic banking crisis in the US pushed equities down. The low point came when measures to help ailing mortgage financiers Fannie Mae More...
In currencies, dealers noted that the reality of "gloom and doom" brought back the risk aversion theme back into the picture. Multiple corporate profit warnings, soft housing data coupled with higher foreclosures and ongoing financials woes continued to s More...
The dollar retreated from a two-week high versus a basket of major currencies on Friday, knocked by weaker-than-expected U.S. housing and jobs data the previous session, lower equity markets and higher oil prices. More...
After failing a couple of times to push above 1.04 the pair has started to slip and it is heading towards the 1.03 support level; we can expect some smaller moves until the US news that comes out early in the US session. More...
The EUR/USD has rebounded modestly heading into NY trade on Friday. So far this has been a difficult session for equities in the wake of the weakness in stocks Thursday in the U.S. One catalyst Thursday was the weak existing homes sales data. Todaty will More...
The USD looked quite comfortable in the London morning but then came under pressure in early NY as the Dow traded down more than 100pts on the return of worries over financial stocks and poor housing data. More...
The Canadian dollar fell 0.3 percent against a stronger U.S. dollar on Thursday, as weak data out of Europe had investors buying greenbacks, with a sharp drop in equities adding to the negative atmosphere.
More...
The EUR/USD eventually slumped on Thursday in the wake of poor German Ifo and very weak advance PMI estimates for July. The data called into question the wisdom of the current hawkish monetary policy posture of the ECB. A key key focus again was crude oil More...
Aussie Vulnerable Black Swan Capital Thursday July 24, 2008 - 18:54:01 GMT
We’ve been doing a lot of analysis on currencies who seem to have blown off too far versus the US dollar. More...
As of this writing, price action on the GBP/USD daily chart, as shown, has just reached down and touched the bottom support line of a short-term parallel uptrend channel More...
·In the currencies the USD maintained a firmer tone during Europe as softer Euro- Zone data began to confirm that the economic upswing has come to an end. Although European officials insist that no recession is looming, the Euro, GBP and CHF currencies h More...
The euro hit a two-week low against the dollar on Thursday after a slew of soft euro zone data underscored the increasingly gloomy economic outlook and cooled expectations of higher interest rates.
More...
The IFO survey of German consumer confidence fell to a three year low piercing through the psychologically key 100 figure as it printed at 97.5 versus forecasts of 100.1. More...
The EUR/USD is holding surprisingly well in the wake of poor German Ifo and very weak advance PMI estimates for July. The data call into question the wisdom of the current hawkish monetary policy posture of the ECB. The key focus again today could be crud More...
The break above the 214 resistance came and the pair closed in on the 216 level. For those of us that missed the original entry we can look for some sort of ratracement or consolidation area before jumping in with a new position. More...
The offshore session saw the USD continue to regain ground, though more modest in scale. The story was more of the same from Tuesday night, with commodities continuing their recent softness and equities up again, albeit not by much. More...
The dollar rallied to a one-month peak against the yen and a two-week high against the euro on Wednesday, supported by a further drop in oil prices and improved confidence in the U.S. financial sector.
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The EUR/USD traded on the defensive most of the session on Wednesday. Ongoing weakness of energy prices fueled the USD demand. Many feel that an easing of the cost of energy will take the pressure off global inflation and provide key central banks with le More...
Well the dollar has rallied substantially in the last three days and particularly since Tuesday when Petroleum, Plosser and Paulson all seemed to play a part in the reversal in the dollar, or so we are told. More...
All the stuff that was supposed to be a good hiding place because of the “inevitable” inflation is heading south. And everyone’s most hated “asset,” (not even considered and asset by some which is a good indication we may be approaching a senti More...
The story so far this week was fired up yesterday via dollar-positive comments from Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson (same old stuff) and monetary policy comments from Philadelphia Fed... More...
Price action on the USD/CHF daily chart, as shown, has once again reached the top resistance line within the parallel downtrend channel that the pair has been entrenched in since late April. More...
The Canadian dollar was little changed against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as domestic inflation data that topped expectations did not alter widespread expectations for the Bank of Canada to leave its key interest rate steady.
More...
The dollar hit a one-month peak against the yen and a two-week high versus the euro on Wednesday, buoyed by a sharp slide in oil prices, a recovery in stocks and hawkish rhetoric from U.S. officials.
More...
The EUR/USD has remaineed on the defensive early Wednesday. The ongoing weakness of energy prices has been fueling the USD recovery. The theory goes that lower prices for energy will keep the pressure off global inflation and provide key central banks wit More...
The pair finally broke under the bullish channel on the 4 hour charts, a few days after we noticed that head and shoulders; EURUSD traded along the neckline until it finally found a combination of technical factors (resistance at 1.5950) and fundamental(U More...
The Canadian dollar fell 0.7 vpercent against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday on weaker-than-expected retail sales data for May and a widespread rally in the greenback against major currencies. More...
The London morning saw the USD slightly offered as Europe digested the oft Amex earnings report, then followed a record $8.9bn loss at Wachovia. ater on though, hawkish comments from Paulson and Plosser and then il’s fall to a low since 5 June (ahead of More...
The dollar rallied on Tuesday, boosted by a steep drop in oil prices and comments from a Federal Reserve official suggesting that U.S. interest rates may have to rise even before financial markets recover. More...
The EUR/USD appeared to be on the defensive early Tuesday in N.Y., but then turned sharply higher after the market bought the pair after getting no news to support that position. The fist blow came from comments by Philly Fed President Plosser who took hi More...
Much like several other crosses, EUR/CHF (the daily chart of which is shown) has just reached and temporarily stalled around significant resistance. More...
The dollar was mired near recent record lows against the euro on Tuesday, with concerns about the U.S. financial sector continuing to erode sentiment.
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In currencies the USD was mildly softer during the European session. Poor earnings and guidance from financial and tech names after yesterday's close weighed upon Dollar sentiment overnight. More...
Poor results from American Express, Texas Instruments and Apple all released after the close of US equity trading yesterday continued to weigh on the dollar in overnight currency trade. More...
USDCHF finally bounced from the resistance trendline and closed in on the 1.0150 support where it has stopped for the time being; breaking below this support will reinforce the bearish bias and perhaps start to change the minds of the hopefull bulls that More...
The EUR/USD is back on the back foot as sentiment for the unit is turning negative again. Worries now seem to center on the strength of the U.S. consumer after the American Express earnings report yesterday. No major data from the U.S. are due again today More...
The offshore session was again relatively quiet last night. The main news was oil and equity related. London morning traders were concerned about a potential bounce in oil following the lack of progress in weekend talks with Iran. More...
The dollar fell on Monday as fears of woes in the U.S. financial sector persisted even as Bank of America (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) reported better-than-expected results.
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The EUR/USD is closing in N.Y. better from late Friday levels. Activity was subdued over the session with Japan closed for a holiday, and no major data from the U.S. in the early part of this week. The USD is mostly lower vs. the other majors.
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Price action on the GBP/JPY daily chart, as shown, has once again bumped right up against a very significant resistance line in the 213.80-214.00 region. More...
The tone of the USD has improved over the latest week, despite a quick spike in the EUR/USD to a new record high of 1.6038 early on Tuesday. This spike looked to be some in the market gunning for stops, because the move was not sustained even over the day More...
The EUR/USD is trading better from late Friday levels. No major data are slated from the U.S. ion the early part of this week. No fed-speak is scheduled today either. One second-tier release – Leading economic indicators – is due today. LEI is just a More...
The very familiar “macro merry go around” of higher oil, lower equities and higher euro continued to play out as a new week of trading commenced in the currency markets. More...
The dollar steadied nearly two cents away from record lows versus the euro on Monday with sentiment hinged on the strength of U.S. banks' earnings and the reception of a rescue plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. More...
Oil Shocks FX Solutions Monday July 21, 2008 - 00:36:48 GMT
The offshore FX session was very quiet Friday night. The main news was equity related – a better than expected earnings report from Citigroup (although still a loss, with $8bn in writedowns) saw Dow futures up from a low of -100pts to +50pts pre market More...
Housing starts rose 9% and the market cheerleaders proclaimed that we have seen a bottom. But not if you look at the actual numbers. New unemployment claims were OK, but not if you look at the actual numbers. And inflation was simply ugly, no matter what More...
The dollar rose on Friday, heading for its largest weekly gain versus the euro in a month, after a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss from Citigroup Inc (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) eased worries about the U.S. financial sector. More...
The dollar was mildly firmer during the US morning following the better-than-expected results from Citigroup as dealers continue to monitor the corporate earnings releases from US financial firms. The EUR/USD continues to consolidate within a 1.58 to 1.59 More...
Price action on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart, as shown, has just hit significant resistance near the top of a short-term parallel downtrend channel More...
The dollar rose versus a basket of six major currencies on Friday, boosted after Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) reported a smaller-than-expected second quarter loss, calming some jitters on U.S. financial sector health. More...
The EUR/USD is trading better from late Thursday levels. We are not aware of any key data slated from the U.S. today, or even any Fed-speak. That leaves forex traders with little to go on for a summer Friday session. Given the magnitude of the decline pri More...
The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest close this week against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as oil prices declined, giving a boost to the greenback. More...
The dollar surged against the yen on Thursday and erased earlier losses versus the euro as oil prices plunged and investors worried that high energy costs and financial market turmoil were slowing global growth. More...
FX markets traded comparatively calmly in London but the US dollar started to pick up steam in New York. The main driver was equities. A better than expected earnings report from JP Morgan before the New York market opened assisted equity futures higher f More...
The EUR/USD is trading about steady from late Wednesday levels. There was a lot of chatter early about an FT article saying that Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) are increasingly moving away from the USD, but dealers mostly dismissed the report as old news. T More...
The euro edged back towards record highs versus a broadly pressured dollar on Thursday, aided by comments from a European Central Bank policymaker emphasising its inflation-fighting mandate. More...
In the currencies the USD was softer against the European pairs as the dollar failed to hold gains achieved in NY trading on Wednesday. Dealers noted that the USD failed to break some notable technical levels as oil fell towards the $132 area. More...
USDJPY is moving higher after it broke inside the 102.50-105.60 range; testing the 105.60 resistance zone should provide us with a good short opportunity if the pair shows weaknes signs on the lower timeframes. More...
The EUR/USD is trading back higher from late Wednesday levels. There has been a lot of chatter about an FT article saying that Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) are increasingly moving away from the USD, but dealers are mostly saying that the report is old new More...
After a quiet London morning the overnight session heated up in New York trading. The first news was a stronger than expected US CPI result. This saw the USD initially trade higher before markets focused on stagflation concerns, and sold the USD a little More...
The Canadian dollar was flat against the U.S. dollar in lackluster trading on Wednesday as investors looked forward to the Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report Update on Thursday for more insight into its economic outlook. More...
The dollar rose on Wednesday, moving further from a record low against the euro, as a slide in oil prices and surprisingly strong earnings at Wells Fargo & Co soothed fears about the U.S. economy and financial sector. More...
The EUR/USD is trading down from late Tuesday levels. The pair had made a new high above the psychological 1.60 line (1.6038) early on Tuesday, but quickly backed off. Subsequently, the relationship has been trading off crude oil, mostly because nothing e More...
After reaching and slightly exceeding the all-time high resistance yesterday, price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, has made a tentative correction back down. More...
A quick look at the British pound versus the US dollar and you’ve got to be thinking the pound looks like a good buy. And maybe, versus the buck, it is. More...
Rather than committing unlimited taxpayer dollars via the Treasury’s credit lines or the Fed’s discount window to the GSEs, how about the Treasury hand out tickets to Mama Mia for a far more effective mood changer? More...
The dollar steadied on Wednesday at about a cent above the previous session's record low against the euro, cheered by a sharp retreat in oil prices but haunted by concerns about a fragile financial sector. More...
The USD was mixed in European trading as global equity markets retained some composure to the recent wave of jitters, aided by steady oil prices. Dealers noted that geopolitical concerns and financial sector unease could easily return to drive trading sen More...
A relatively quiet night of consolidation in currency markets tonight as both euro and sterling spent most of the early European session basing about the 1.5900 and 2.0000 levels respectively. More...
The EUR/USD is trading up modestly from late Tuesday levels. The pair made a new high above the psychological 1.60 line (1.6038) early on Tuesday, but quickly backed off. The relationship has been trying to trade off crude oil in recent sessions mostly be More...
The Canadian dollar closed ata six-week high against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday after briefly popping above parity with the greenback in overseas trade before slipping back on economic concerns More...
The dollar fell to a record low against the euro on Tuesday amid persistent fears over the health of the U.S. financial institutions, with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke giving a grim assessment of the sector. More...
The overnight session was a very whippy one with rumours and event risks driving equities, commodities and hence currencies in either direction through the day More...
In a session marked by extreme emotion and volatility, the USD remains broadly weaker against the major pairs as slowing economic outlook and higher inflation concerns sent commodities and currencies on a bumpy ride. More...
After a relatively dramatic move up on Tuesday morning, price on the GBP/USD (the daily chart of which is shown) hit and promptly retreated from the top resistance line of a short-term uptrend channel More...
Retail sales increased by a weaker than expected 0.1% in June, after a downward revision in the May figure to 0.8% from 1.0%. Sales ex autos rose 0.8% ex autos versus an expected 1.0% increase following downward revisions. More...
Decision: July 15 at 13:00 GMT.
BOC Overnight Target Rate: 3.00%
Expected Decision: no rate change. The Bank of Canada surprised the markets on June 10 by holding rates steady. It also clearly signaled that policy now is on hold. More...
In the currencies the USD remains broadly lower in the European session as concerns continued to swirl in the US financial sector. Dealers noted that the nagging thought of which financial institutions might be too small to save hampered the USD overnight More...
The euro vaulted to a record high versus the dollar on Tuesday as concern about the health of the U.S. financial sector overshadowed a series-low reading of German investor sentiment. More...
The EUR/USD is trading higher from late Monday. The pair has made a new high above the psychological 1.60 line at 1.6038 a little while ago. We have been noting the recent negative turn in USD sentiment in recent sessions, as worries about the U.S. Financ More...
The Canadian dollar rose 0.4 percent against a resurgent U.S. dollar on Monday, mainly due to merger-related interest in Canada's energy sector.
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The dollar rose from a near record low against the euro on Monday after the United States announced an emergency plan to restore confidence in mortgage finance companies More...
The EUR/USD now trading higher from prevailing levels at the end of last week in N.Y. Dealers are still looking for decisive direction, but the USD is still looking offered. Word by the U.S. Treasury and Fed that the GSE’s are too large to fail and that More...
The dollar price action continues to center on the financial sector and the GSEs. The USD was modestly weaker during the US morning session as dealers focused on the outcome of Freddie's $3B note auction. More...
The dollar rowed back from a near-record low against the euro on Monday after the United States unveiled an emergency plan to restore investor confidence in embattled mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. More...
The USD was modestly firmer during the European session aided by the US Treasury's Paulson's weekend commitment to back GSEs. Dealers were also attributing USD strength to M&A related flows after InBev and Bud agreed to merge in a $52B transaction. More...
Despite a boost from the fall of 12% in the UK’s tradeweighted Index (TWI), manufacturing output fell by 0.5% in May and industrial production dropped 0.8%. A fall in UK energy output is understandable, however, as North Sea oil and gas extraction is dr More...
The EUR/USD is trading lower vs. levels from late last week in N.Y. Dealers are still looking for decisive direction. Word over the weekend from the U.S. Treasury and Fed that the GSE’s are too large to fail and that actions are being taken to keep them More...
The USD has traded on the edge most of the most recent week. Renewed concerns about the credit markets were a key factor again, especially the fate of the U.S. GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises). There were also periodic rumors about a couple of fina More...
It seems that with each passing month the estimates for losses in the international banking system keep rising. This time last summer the largest estimates (from credible sources), if memory serves me correct, were around $400 billion, give or take a few More...
The Canadian dollar ended little changed on Friday as it benefited from U.S. dollar weakness, which offset an early decline after an anemic domestic jobs report.
More...
The dollar fell broadly on Friday as persistent worries about the stability of two U.S. mortgage finance giants were seen constraining the Federal Reserve's ability to raise interest rates this year. More...
As noted on a previous Chart of the Day just a couple of days ago, the EUR/GBP (a daily chart of which is shown), had formed a large symmetrical triangle formation, much like the EUR/JPY had. More...
A subscriber recently emailed us the other day and asked, “What happened to the Japanese yen?”
There was nothing else written in the email except that. More...
The dollar fell to one-week lows versus a basket of major currencies on Friday, weighed by stock market losses and record high oil prices, although slightly improved sentiment on the financial sector limited its decline. More...
In the currencies press reports were getting the attention overnight.The USD was off its recent lows after press reports surfaced that the Bush administration was looking at a potential government takeover of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. More...
A very quiet night of trade for the final session of the week as EURUSD held its gains in the wake of further problems in the US financial sector as investors questioned the solvency of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. More...
The EUR/USD is roughly steady vs. levels from late Thursday in N.Y. Dealers are still looking for decisive direction. A bearish undercurrent still prevails in the markets. Thursday testimony by Fed Chair Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson was taken a More...
The US dollar came under broad pressure in overnight trade, with worries over the US financial sector to the forefront once again. Former Fed official Poole’s description of the govt-sponsored mortgage agencies as technically insolvent reverberated, alo More...
The Canadian dollar closed at its highest level in more than two weeks on Thursday, as a jump in oil prices helped spark some interest in the commodity linked currency ahead of Friday's domestic jobs report. More...
The dollar fell against the euro on Thursday, dragged down by persistent worries over the health of U.S. financial sector, as shares and bonds of the country's two mortgage finance giants tumbled on capitalization fears. More...
The EUR/USD is higher vs. levels from late Wednesday in N.Y. Dealers are still looking for direction, and on Thursday traders took testimony by Fed Chair Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson as a reason to sell. Absent unexpected developments, these ar More...
In the currencies, the USD continued to consolidate within its post ECB press conference range of 1.5630 to 1.5730 against the Euro, but did manage to briefly probe 1.5760 ahead of the European open as Euro stop loss orders were elected. Dealers continued More...
The dollar firmed against a basket of major currencies on Thursday, supported by lower oil prices, but investors remained wary of further credit market turmoil after sharp losses in U.S. and European stock markets. More...
The EUR/USD is lower vs. levels from late Wednesday in N.Y. Dealers are still looking for direction, as economic growth in key economies outside of the U.S. clearly has started to decline in absolute and relative terms. The problem is that the U.S. econom More...
In a week devoid of any significantly market moving data, there has only been one clear factor driving the US dollar – stocks. The dollar weakened across the board as stocks resumed their sell-off. More...
The Canadian dollar jumped to its highest level against the U.S. dollar in seven sessions on Wednesday after stable oil prices, better-than-expected housing
data and falling U.S. stocks helped to push More...
A lack of US data left FX markets looking to the likes of the Iranian missile tests and equity markets for direction, leaving USD with losses in the overnight session. The New Zealand dollar did well considering the rise in risk aversion More...
The dollar fell on Wednesday as news that Iran test-fired nine missiles halted oil's steep drop and unsettled Wall Street stocks, with investors concerned about the impact of soaring energy prices on the fragile economy. More...
The EUR/USD is closing higher vs. levels from late Tuesday in N.Y. The G8 summit in Japan turned out to be a non-event for the forex markets, so dealers are now looking for new direction. There was talk about a risk of G8 forex intervention based on comme More...
All those investors on and off Wall Street whose focus is on buying stocks must have sweat through a closet full of shirts by now. The outlook for the stock market is not pretty. More...
In currencies, the USD was broadly softer during the New York morning, partly due to crude's turnabout. For the most part, the dollar remains within recent price ranges against the majors. More...
Geopolitical news dominated currency price action overnight. The EUR/USD continues to consolidate in its 1.5610-1.5730 post ECB rate decision range. More...
The dollar eased on Wednesday as oil prices rebounded, after geopolitical tensions were pushed back onto investors' radar by news of Iran test-firing missiles and of an armed attack on the U.S. consulate in Turkey. More...
Another day brings more bad new for the UK economy. Nationwide consumer confidence sunk to a four year low of 63 versus expectations of 65 while Visible Trade Balance remained essentially unchanged at –7.5 Billion GBP. More...
An unusually sharp decline in oil prices boosted US equities in NY afternoon trade and lent support to the US dollar. However, the greenback’s gains were relatively modest, with USD Index only back to where it was on Monday, not helped by more soft hous More...
The Canadian dollar rallied from an early retreat on Tuesday to close just a touch lower against the greenback, as oil prices tumbled further from last
week's record highs, but the currency's move was More...
The dollar rose on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve's willingness to keep its emergency lending facility open into 2009 for some Wall Street firms calmed fresh credit concerns and encouraged investors to snap up U.S. stocks. More...
In currencies, Bernanke's comments helped lift the dollar from session lows, while his commentary and that of OFHEO's Lockhart have provided a welcome sense of calm. More...
Price action on the EUR/GBP daily chart, as shown, has been consolidating in a well-defined symmetrical triangle formation for at least three months now. More...
The low-yielding Japanese yen rose against the euro and dollar on Tuesday and the Swiss franc also benefitted broadly as global economic jitters hobbled world stock markets, stoking risk aversion. More...
The EUR/USD is heading into N.Y. about steady vs. late Monday levels.. There is still some nervousness about the G8 summit in Japan, although it appears now that no major initiative in support of the unit is likely. Today will see an appearance by Fed Cha More...
he US dollar consolidated its Asian rally in London and into the NY morning, before tumbling in on worries over government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. More...
The Canadian dollar rebounded to finish higher versus the U.S. dollar on Monday after the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey seemed to point to
increased inflationary risks and spurred talk of
More...
The dollar rose versus the yen in choppy trade on Monday as U.S. stocks recouped some losses despite renewed fears financial institutions might be forced to write down more mortgage-related assets and raise capital. More...
The EUR/USD is closing steady vs. levels from late last week. There is still some nervousness about the G8 summit in Japan, which is now underway. The focus of the Tuesday session will be on economic issues. There is speculation that the leaders could com More...
Both central bankers are trapped between their primary responsibility, for the ECB inflation, for the Fed economic growth and jobs, and their secondary mandates, GDP growth for the ECB and inflation More...
If you bought the Australian dollar and simultaneously sold the Canadian dollar at the beginning of the year and you’re still positioned like that then you’re probably a pretty happy camper. More...
In the currencies the USD was aided by numerous factors at the start of the week. Dealers citied some return of risk appetite, steady equity markets, and the drop in commodity prices into the G8 have More...
The dollar hit 1-1/2 week highs against a basket of major currencies on Monday driven in part by speculation that comments from G8 officials could push oil prices further away from last week's record highs. More...
The EUR/USD is opening lower vs. levels from late last week. There is some nervousness about the G8 summit in Japan, which is now underway. The focus of the Tuesday session will be on economic issues. There is speculation that the leaders might come to an More...
After the excitement of Thursday’s NFP/ECB releases, FX markets in London and Toronto took the opportunity provided by the US Independence Day holiday to mark time into the weekend, with key pairs barely moving from late Asia-Pacific levels. More...
The USD survived a major downside test in the latest week. It was set up for a slide in the face of the ECB rate hike and another (underlying) poor U.S. monthly employment report. The latest weekly employment report saw jobless claims spike above the ke More...
Highlight
· ECB sees no reason for further interest rate hikes for the time being
· EUR-USD falls to about 1.57 after dovish ECB press conference
· Oil price development influences exchange rate, not vice versa More...
The US is closed today celebrating their Independence Day. The market currently has minimal volatility. The majors have remained steady all through the day, trading within a range of 50 pips, the.... More...
The Canadian dollar fell versus a stronger U.S. dollar on Thursday as the European Central Bank struck a less aggressive tone than expected on prospects for interest rate hikes this year, which triggered a rally in the greenback. More...
FX markets traded with understandable caution overnight ahead of the ECB announcement and US jobs data. These produced sharp net gains for USD, mostly against EUR and CHF, as while the ECB hiked 25bp as expected to 4.25%, ECB president Trichet said he had More...
The dollar rallied on Thursday after payroll data suggested the U.S. job market and economy are as dire as many investors had feared, while the European Central Bank president struck a less aggressive tone on prospects for interest rate hikes. More...
The USD firmed following the ECB's first interest rate hike in 13 months. The ECB duly noted that the rate decision was taken to prevent second-round inflationary effects, as expected. More...
First, the European Central Bank is set to announce their latest interest rate decision very shortly. Second, US Non-farm payrolls are reported 45 minutes after that. More...
In fx all eyes have turned towards the ECB ahead of its scheduled monetary policy meeting. The USD was steady ahead of the ECB's rate decision and press conference. More...
The euro hit a two-month high against a broadly struggling dollar on Thursday, with sentiment dominated by a widely anticipated European Central Bank rate decision and key U.S. employment data. More...
The Canadian dollar rallied more than a cent versus a weaker U.S. dollar on Wednesday due to record high oil prices and weaker-than-expected economic data that rattled the greenback.
More...
The overnight session started out with a slightly better USD bid tone. But this failed to follow through with softer US data (see below) suggesting downside risks to tonight’s US payrolls report, and Citibank suggesting a technical buy EUR for 1.69 trad More...
Despite the loaded irony in Merrill auto analysts warning of a possible bankruptcy for GM unless it can raise $15bln in capital. Pot calling the kettle black, no? But beyond the irony there is a loaded question here…have we moved from a period of a lar More...
The USD drifted lower during the New York morning, hitting fresh 10-week lows against the Euro as the pair trended above the 1.5850 level. The GBP recovered from earlier losses following UK Construction PMI data that confirmed further housing sector woes More...
Late last week, price just bounced down off of an extremely significant horizontal support/resistance level on the GBP/JPY daily chart, as shown. More...
In currencies the USD was mixed in trading on Wednesday, while the GBP was broadly weaker following the reports from UK homebuilder Taylor Wimpey. The GBP/USD continued to sustain momentum to hold above its 200 day moving average at 1.9977. More...
Pound lost more than 100 points in early London trade today after the construction PMI data showed a marked decline printing at 38.9 versus 43.1 forecast. More...
The EUR/USD is roughly steady early Wednesday heading into the N.Y. open. Today will see the ADP private jobs survey, which amounts to a random number heading into the random number monthly official jobs data on Thursday. The markets continue to look ahea More...
The overnight session started out with Dow futures down sharply (around 100pts) and further rumours of impending Israeli air strikes on Iran. This saw the USD soft early and commodity prices bid. However, More...
The dollar fell against the euro and was little changed against the yen on Tuesday in a volatile session as investors debated the outlook for the U.S. economy while anticipating a rate hike from the European Central Bank later this week. More...
The USD is softer against the major pairs: EUR/USD is at 1.5765, little changed from its opening levels in Asia, while the GBP/USD has been probing two-month highs, testing above the 2.0 level. However, cable has been unable to sustain gains above its 200 More...
After rising in a rather steady long-term uptrend for years, AUD/USD (the daily chart of which is shown), has hit what amounts to a triple top formation. More...
The yen climbed on Tuesday, benefiting from mounting risk aversion as heightened fears about further losses in the banking sector prompted investors to dump riskier assets like stocks. More...
In currencies the USD was mixed in steady trading on Tuesday against the major pairs. The EUR/USD is around 1.5755, lower by 10 pips from opening levels seen in Asia. The GBP/USD probed two-month highs as it attempted to break above the 2.0 level before s More...
Buoyed by strong rebounds in both German Retail Sales and unemployment data, the EURUSD held steady in early European trade holding the 1.5750 level. More...
The EUR/USD has rebounded modestly early on Tuesday as the markets continue to look ahead to an ECB rate hike on Thursday and an expected poor U.S. employment report on that day as well. The U.S. ISM PMI today will be closely monitored as well. June Euroz More...
Markets made a whippy close to the month overnight. During the London morning the US dollar continued its offered tone before price action stabilized. Then when New York came in the USD gained some legs. More...
The U.S. dollar gained against the euro on Monday as traders bought back the U.S. currency as the second quarter ends, though losses in the euro were limited ahead of an expected rate hike by the ECB this week.
More...
The Canadian dollar fell to a two-week low before recovering slightly on Monday, bogged down by profit-taking at the start of a holiday-shortened work week in Canada and the United States. More...
The EUR/USD was surprisingly weak after starting the new week on the back foot. Markets continue to look ahead to an ECB rate hike on Thursday and an expected poor U.S. employment report on that day as well. The Eurozone flash HICP inflation estimate for More...
The JPY maintained its firmer tone in the session initially propelled by comments from Moody's, which raised Japan's JGB rating to Aa3 from A1 during the late Asian hours. USD/JPY was lower by over More...
After the impressive rally that occurred during the latter part of last week, price on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart, as shown, has just bumped up against and bounced down off of a significant resistance More...
The dollar fell to a one-month low against a basket of major currencies on Monday, feeling the pinch of increased risk aversion, record high oil prices and an unfavourable interest rate outlook compared with the euro zone. More...
With the credit crunch now taking second place to worries about inflation, interest rate futures are pointing to significantly higher official UK interest rates in the next two years. This is a sharp turnaround from a few months ago when they were looking More...
In currencies the JPY was firmer across the board after Moody's raised Japan's JGB rating to Aa3 from A1. The USD/JPY was lower by over 110 pips as it tested the 105 handle, while the EUR/JPY cross was off 160+ pips at 166.10 and the GBP/JPY was down 230+ More...
The USD is starting the new week on the back foot vs. the EUR. Crude oil remains a weight on the USD Markets continue to set up for an ECB rate hike on Thursday and an expected poor employment report on that day as well. The Eurozone flash HICP inflation More...
The Friday night session provided a relatively quiet end to the week, following the very erratic Thursday. Of note, NY oil prices punched through $142, (though the close was just above $140) while gold also continued to grind higher (up about $14/oz) and More...
The USD is back at the precipice again following a difficult week for the currency. The focal EUR/USD relationship seems to be trying to distance itself from the 1.5500 neutrality level again. Triggers for this change of heart were a less hawkish than exp More...
"We appear to be entering a period of serious stagflation with sharply rising expected and actual inflation combined with large downside risks to growth and employment." More...
The commodity-linked Canadian dollar closed higher against a sagging U.S. dollar on Friday, helped by a spike in oil prices to nearly $143 a barrel. More...
The yen and Swiss franc rose to three-week highs against the dollar on Friday as investors pared back risk exposure amid record high oil prices, slumping stocks and worries about U.S. economic growth. More...
Some risk aversion is creeping back into currencies: Carry-related pairs are moving lower as European equities experience a second day of losses. The EUR/JPY retraced from fresh all-time highs on Thursday around 169.44, moving back below the 168 handle. More...
During the course of the week, the dollar lost ground across the board again. Towards the end
of the week, EUR-USD was around 1.5750. The US currency did not fall all that sharply compared to the previous week, but it is now nearing the “upper limit” More...
The yen and the Swiss franc rallied to three-week highs versus the dollar on Friday, benefiting from a pick-up in risk aversion due to record high oil prices and slumping stocks. More...
n currencies, USD sentiment high commodity prices continued to weigh on USD sentiment as WTI crude made fresh all-time highs above $141.70/barrel. Crude's drive higher was prompted by buy-stop orders kicking in above the $140-level. More...
Fear is back in the currency markets as yesterday’s -358 point plunge in the Dow was followed by –277 drop in the Nikkei and more 1% decline in the DAX as well. More...
The USD is trading steady vs. the EUR from late Thursday despite extreme volatility in the price of oil today. Crude oil early made new record highs. This correlation might be braking down a little. Markets have already set up for an ECB rate hike next Th More...
The Canadian dollar closed lower alongside a weaker U.S. dollar on Thursday as a sell North America sentiment that spread into equities dominated the market even though oil prices surged to a record More...
The US dollar was softer through the overnight session. After a short rally early in the London day, traders revisited the message from the FOMC and continued the USD selling they had started in Asia. From then it was a list of USD negatives, starting wit More...
The dollar fell broadly on Thursday, nearing a three-week low against the euro, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates at 2 percent, dashing expectations of an imminent rate hike. More...
The USD extended its recent wave of losses against the major currency pairs that began after the Fed rate decision. The FOMC's optimistic outlook on reigning in inflation expectations has been tempered by higher oil and metals prices, driven up by the Lib More...
After the FOMC announcement yesterday and the London market open today, price made a serious breakout of the long-term downtrend resistance line as shown on the accompanying GBP/USD daily chart. More...
The strong support (now Resistance) at 1.0300, which had been holding for some time now has been broken. As such, the market is close to testing a crucially important trendline joining the Lows... More...
In currencies, the USD consolidated its post-FED rate decision losses against the major currency pairs. The EUR/USD held above the 1.5630 post G7 pivot point. More...
The dollar hit a three-week low versus a basket of major currencies on Thursday, extending the previous day's losses after a statement from the Federal Reserve trimmed expectations for near-term interest rate hike. More...
The USD was hit across the board overnight after the FOMC delivered a less hawkish than feared stance than many were gunning for. To be sure the FOMC statement said that downside risks to growth have diminished while upside risks to inflation have increas More...
The Canadian dollar rebounded to close higher versus the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, with the greenback falling after a statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve convinced the market to pare back calls for aggressive U.S. rate hikes. More...
The dollar fell to two-week lows versus the euro on Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve failed to give a strong enough signal that it would aggressively raise interest rates this year. More...
The USD is trading sharply lower vs. the EUR following the Fed decision. The central bank was not as hawkish as expected, and the markets appear to have gotten positioned incorrectly for the market reaction to the announcement. No rate change was as expec More...
In currencies, the USD is maintaining a tight range ahead of the FOMC interest rate decision. EUR/USD has been straddling the 1.56 level throughout most of the NY morning, with the dollar maintaining its steady tone despite a continued barrage of hawkish More...
Today is the big day. In a few hours everyone will be tuning in for a first-hand report on the latest Federal Open Market Committee rate decision. More...
Within the context of the long-term downtrend on the USD/CHF daily chart, as shown, price has settled into a slightly downward-sloping range consolidation. More...
The euro rose on Wednesday after European Central Bank officials warned about persistently high inflation rates, while the dollar held relatively steady versus a basket of major currencies ahead of the U.S. interest rate verdict. More...
1.5550 has become the new level of equilibrium in EURUSD as the majors spend a quiet night of trade ahead of the marquee economic event of the week More...
The USD is trading modestly lower vs. the EUR heading into the N.Y. session today. The focus at the moment is on the Fed decision later today. Just about everyone is looking ahead to an unchanged rate decision. The tone of the Fed policy statement will gu More...
Like in the Nike commercial, it is time for the Fed and FOMC to just do it…hike. Lord knows the Fed lost no time in cutting rates last fall and through April. Now that inflation and inflation expectations are rising and nominal and real short-term rat More...
The Canadian dollar closed higher on Tuesday as weak U.S. data weighed on the greenback, but its move was limited ahead of the rate decision from the Federal Reserve due on Wednesday.
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Morning Report Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday June 24, 2008 - 20:54:10 GMT
In an otherwise quiet session ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC announcement the USD gave back a portion of Monday’s gains overnight thanks to a plunge in US consumer confidence to 16 year lows. More...
The dollar retreated on Tuesday as a plunge in consumer confidence and declining home prices raised doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to hike interest rates to stem inflation. More...
The USD traded back lower vs. the EUR during the N.Y. session. The dip below 1.5500 on Monday did not last as many are now looking ahead to an unchanged Fed rate decision on Wednesday. The tone of the Fed policy statement will be a key focus. Until furthe More...
In the past several days, price action on the USD/JPY daily chart, as shown, has enforced a rather precise resistance level around 108.50-108.60. More...
The euro gained broadly on Tuesday, hitting an 11-month high versus the yen, as stronger than expected French data backed expectations of a European Central Bank interest rate hike next week. More...
In currencies the USD was softer against the European pairs as higher commodity prices weighed upon sentiment. The EUR/USD is around 1.5570, up 45 pips since the Asian open. More...
The USD is trading back lower vs. the EUR heading into the N.Y. session. A dip below 1.5500 on Monday did not last. EUR/USD 1.5500 level remains the price magnet. More poor housing data are expected from the U.S. today and the Conference Board Consumer Co More...
The US dollar posted solid gains overnight, as a weaker than expected German IFO survey continued the recent run of softer Eurozone survey data. Gold was sold heavily too, falling by $20/oz in early New York trading on talk of forced liquidation by a trou More...
The Canadian dollar closed slightly lower versus the U.S. dollar in a lackluster session given the absence of any domestic data and hesitation ahead of a rate decision by the Federal Reserve due More...
The dollar rose on Monday, as weak euro zone data took the steam out of last week's euro rally and investors braced for a Federal Reserve statement this week that will likely focus on rising U.S. inflation pressures. More...
The USD traded higher vs. the EUR in the N.Y. session from late Friday. A dip was seen below 1.5500, however, EUR/USD 1.5500 level remains the price magnet. The EUR/USD slide Monday came in the wake of weaker than expected German IFO data and poorer than More...
After breaking out above a long-term downtrend resistance line in early June, price action on the EUR/JPY daily chart, as shown, is hinting at a weakening of upward momentum. More...
Wage inflation is the key to whether there is a rise in UK interest rates this year. As the Governor said in his open letter to the Chancellor following the rise in annual CPI inflation to 3.3% in May “it is crucial that prices other than those of commo More...
Wage inflation is the key to whether there is a rise in UK interest rates this year. As the Governor said in his open letter to the Chancellor following the rise in annual CPI inflation to 3.3% in May “it is crucial that prices other than those of commo More...
The forex market has become comfortable with the current trading range market in the EUR/USD. The mid-point of the trading range (neutrality) is 1.5500. The tone of the U.S. currency (bullish or bearish) is now being determined by the position of this p More...
In currencies the USD was broadly firmer against the majors as evidence of slower economic growth appeared in Europe. The EUR/USD probed the 1.5500 level after French PMI data showed that a contraction is occurring in both its manufacturing and service se More...
The euro fell sharply on Monday after contraction in the euro zone's manufacturing and service sectors, while the dollar gained as some investors bet on a hawkish message from the Federal Reserve later in the week. More...
The EURUSD dropped more than 100 points from its open in Asia today after a slew of economic data surprised to the downside confirming the bear’s long held thesis that the region’s economy is beginning to buckle More...
The USD is trading higher vs. the EUR heading into the N.Y. session from late Friday. The EUR/USD 1.5500 level remains the price magnet. The EUR/USD slide came in the wake of weaker than expected German IFO data and poorer than forecast Eurozone flash PMI More...
The USD was relentlessly pursued lower on Friday night with surging oil prices and sagging equities sending the USD lower across the board. The early impulse for selling dollars came from higher oil More...
The Canadian dollar capped a winning week with a lower close on Friday as details of stronger-than-expected domestic retail sales data ate away at
gains made by the currency moments after More...
The dollar fell broadly on Friday as fears of further write-downs in the U.S. financial sector raised speculation the Federal Reserve would not signal a shift toward tighter monetary policy when it meets next week.
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Forex markets were calm for the most part this week. The dollar was down somewhat compared to the previous week, mainly because the markets’ expectations of relatively aggressive interest rate hikes in the US receded. More...
The dollar fell against a basket of major currencies on Friday after a rally in oil and a ratings downgrade of two U.S. insurers that raised fresh jitters about the financial sector and broader U.S. economic health. More...
The Euro firmed as the inflation picture worsened in Europe. German producer prices rose 6.0% form 5.2% on an annualized basis-the fastest pace in almost two years. More...
The USD has turned lower vs. the EUR heading into the N.Y. session from late Thursday. The EUR/USD 1.5500 level remains neutrality and the price magnet. EUR/USD demand may be coming from a correction of the EUR/GBP cross. The outcome of the Jeddah oil sum More...
The New Zealand dollar bucked the broader USD trend overnight hitting 8 day highs near 0.7625. Demand for carry was a notable driver of overnight price action with both AUD and NZD pushing convincingly higher against the likes of JPY and CHF. EUR traded w More...
The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as domestic data topped estimates, but a sharp drop in oil prices dragged the currency from the two-week high it reached early in the session. More...
The USD traded more or less steady vs. the EUR during the NYC session but is up modestly from late Wednesday. The EUR/USD 1.5500 level remains neutrality and the price magnet. The strength of its “pull” could be spawning interest in the crosses.
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The dollar rose versus the euro on Thursday, helped by a sharp drop in crude oil prices and a surge in British retail sales that caused traders to offload the European single currency to buy sterling.
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The dollar rose versus the euro on Thursday, helped by a sharp drop in crude oil prices and a surge in British retail sales that caused traders to offload the European single currency to buy sterling.
More...
In currencies, the session was a turbulent as dealers analyzed a slew of geopolitical and economic events impacting commodity prices. Overall the USD was mixed against the major currency pairs as forces in Europe, Nigeria and China proved to be the main d More...
In currencies the USD was mixed in European trading overnight. The GBP was broadly firmer following better than expected retail sales data from the UK. More...
The pound jumped over 50 bps as U.K. retail sales unexpectedly increased 3.5% against expectations of a 0.1% decline, which was the most since records began in 1986. More...
The dollar rallied broadly on Thursday, benefitting as the Swiss National Bank's decision to to keep its interest rates on hold stalled the Swiss franc's overnight advance. More...
The New Zealand dollar made small gains against the other major currencies, as a softer US dollar and the immediate lack of local news continued More...
The Canadian dollar closed a touch lower against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday but only after it hit a one-week high as a rethink on U.S. interest rate hikes continued to weigh on the greenback. More...
The U.S. dollar edged lower on Wednesday as investors adjusted their interest rate outlooks for the United States and the euro zone after conflicting economic data and monetary authorities toned down threats of tighter policy. More...
The USD traded modestly lower vs. the EUR from late Wednesday. No major U.S. data were released. The EUR/USD 1.5500 level remains neutrality and a price magnet. More...
We’re wondering: How credible is the Japanese yen risk-aversion play? Stocks have been less than stellar lately yet the yen has pretty much been sliding against the buck. More...
The dollar mounted a defensive rally against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, but struggled to break free of recent ranges after a run of weak U.S. data clouded expectations for a series of Federal Reserve rate hikes. More...
In currencies, the USD continued to consolidate within its 1-week ranges against the majors with dealers noting that volatility was moving lower. More...
A very quiet meandering night in the currency markets with EURUSD continuing to consolidate around the 1.5500 level in a now very familiar fashion. More...
The USD traded has improved modestly vs. the EUR from late Tuesday. No major data have been released since the N.Y. The EUR/USD 1.5500 level remains neutrality and a price magnet. More...
For the first session in several USD direction didn’t dominate trading overnight. The June German ZEW survey was weaker than consensus but US May housing starts and industrial production both came in weaker than expectations too, leaving the majors trad More...
The Canadian dollar closed at its highest level against the U.S. dollar in more than two weeks on Tuesday as soft economic data dampened expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut and More...
The dollar fell against the euro on Tuesday as U.S. housing starts plunged to their lowest level in more than 17 years in May, casting more doubt over an anticipated early Federal Reserve interest rate increase. More...
After breaking cleanly out of a key downtrend resistance line last week, price action on USD/JPY, the daily chart of which is shown, appears poised for a possible throwback to the line. More...
For today, the 21-SMA on the 4-hourly at 0.9387 has held as Support after Resistance was faced at 0.9440 earlier in the day. As long as this Support at 0.9387 holds, we could well see the market... More...
The dollar slipped against the euro while sterling sold off widely on Tuesday as traders broadly scaled back expectations of how high U.S., euro zone and UK interest rates will be raised to tame inflation. More...
In currencies dealers were digesting various factors that are impacting FX including pending central bank decisions, M&A news, option barriers, commodities, as well as quarterly and half-year end. However, the main event drivers were the UK CPI data, whic More...
Another night of back and forth price action as EURUSD continued to swing on either side of the 1.5500 figure which has become the literal and figurative level of equilibrium in the pair. More...
The USD is opening in NY modestly lower vs. the EUR from late Monday. Weaker than expected ZEW sentiment data out of Germany have been a weight on the EUR. The U.S. will see a slew of data today. The EUR/USD 1.5500 level is still neutrality and a magnet f More...
The USD was softer across the board during the offshore session, driven by a confluence of factors. First we had the inevitable knee-jerk reaction to the G8 statement. More...
The Canadian dollar rebounded and closed higher against the U.S. dollar on Monday, recouping all its losses from the previous session as weak economic data out of the United States rattled the greenback.
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The dollar fell against the euro on Monday, halting a three-session winning streak, as record euro-zone inflation supported expectations of a European Central Bank interest rate hike next month.
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The USD is ending in NY lower vs. the EUR from late Friday. The session appeared to be characterized by a short EUR/USD squeeze after the G8 had little to say on forex over the weekend. The EUR/USD 1.5500 level is still neutrality and a magnet for the mar More...
US $ Index Black Swan Capital Monday June 16, 2008 - 17:32:28 GMT
$ Index hitting an oil slick again…
The US$ index was moving up nicely. But it seems the G-8 didn’t do as much as the market wanted. More...
In currencies the USD remained on the defensive in European trading as some doubts emerged whether the Saudi's can actually deliver on their proposed 10M bpd production output target. More...
After the long uptrending AUD/USD pair (a 4-hour chart of which is shown) hit a double-top potential reversal in late May and early June, price came down significantly to break down below More...
In currencies the USD was softer in European trading as some doubts emerged whether the Saudi's can actually deliver the 10M BPD production output that is being proposed. More...
e G-8 meeting concluded over the week-end without making any overt references to support the dollar in its communiqué and as a result the buck opened weaker at the start of trade on Monday. More...
The USD is lower vs. the EUR from late Friday on what appears to be a minor short squeeze after the G8 had little to say on fore over the weekend. For now, we still view that the EUR/USD 1.5500 level is neutrality and a magnet for the markets absent decis More...
The dollar hit a four-month high versus the yen on Monday as investors reckoned that officials may keep pushing for a stronger U.S. currency even after a Group of Eight communique at the weekend made no mention of its recent weakness. More...
The USD was once again bid out of the blocks early in the offshore session with long USD positions favoured on expectations for a firm US CPI and ahead of the weekend G7 Finance Ministers’ Meeting. Reports that Ireland will not ratify the Lisbon treaty More...
The forex market is starting to become comfortable with the notion of a trading range market in the EUR/USD. It appears that the mid-point of the trading range (neutrality) is 1.5500. There is no doubt that the tone of the U� currency (bullish or bearis More...
President Nixon instated price controls on the 15th of August, 1971. Inflation was a little over 4% at the time. Price controls manifestly did not work (resulting in shortages of all sorts and a deep recession) and were rescinded a few years later. Presid More...
One of the key questions this week is whether the Governor of the Bank of England will have to write an open letter to the Chancellor explaining why inflation is more than 1% above the 2% target and what he is doing about it. Our forecast shows consumer p More...
The Canadian dollar fell for the second straight day against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as talk of rising inflation and higher U.S. interest rates strengthened the greenback. More...
The dollar jumped against the euro on Friday and notched up its best week against a basket of currencies since 2005 as mounting inflation fears had investors bracing for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year. More...
Speculation about interest rate hikes in the eurozone, weak US labour market and trade data, and clear signs that the credit crisis is still far from over for US banks pushed EUR-USD over 1.58 at the end of last week and the beginning of this week. More...
The USD firmed as early indication that the “No” camp was ahead in today's Irish referendum regarding the Lisbon treaty. EUR/USD tested 1.5329, down 120 pips from its opening level in Asia. More...
In a typically predicable fashion BOJ kept its overnight lending rate on hold for yet another month as Governor Masaaki Shirakawa noted that that Japanese economic and price conditions were different from those in the United States and Europe. More...
The USD is higher vs. the EUR from late Thursday. Below 1.5365 could change turn the outlook for the EUR/USD to more negative. For now, we still view that EUR/USD 1.5500 as neutrality.
Dealers are also awaiting the outcome of the Irish vote on the EU Li More...
The dollar rose against the euro and the yen on Friday, and was on track for its best week in over three years against a basket of currencies as investors focused on a weekend meeting of G8 finance ministers. More...
The USD continued to muscle its way higher across the board sending the New Zealand dollar down 0.5% in overnight trade. From early offshore highs of 0.7541 the NZD traded down to 0.7481 lows. More...
Canada's dollar closed at its weakest in more than two months against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as the greenback gathered steam after a report showed retail sales in the United States were stronger than expected. More...
The dollar rallied broadly on Thursday after data showed a surprisingly strong gain in U.S. retail sales last month, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates this year. More...
The USD is sharply higher vs. the EUR from late Wednesday levels. Day to day swings have been suggesting that this is a market with no conviction. On balance, dealers have become comfortable with the notion of a rough 1.54-1.58 trading range for the pair. More...
(EU): ECB Publishes Jun. Monthly Report: ECB is in the state of heightened alertness on inflation risks; echoes Trichet's Jun 5th press conference remarks.II ECB to act in firm and timely manner on More...
The USD is sharply higher vs. the EUR from late Wednesday levels. The day to day swings suggest his is a market with no convictions. On balance, dealers have become comfortable with the notion of a 1.54-1.58 trading range for the pair. The view now is tha More...
The dollar hit a one-month high versus a basket of major currencies, while the euro fell sharply on Thursday with investors continuing to reassess U.S. and euro zone rate expectations. More...
The Canadian dollar rose for a second straight session versus the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as a surprise decision by the Bank of Canada to leave interest rates steady continued to offer support.
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The dollar slid on Wednesday, snapping its best two-day gain against the euro since 2005, as investors debated the outlook for interest rates in the United States and Europe given statements from central bank officials in recent days. More...
The USD is now sharply lower vs. the EUR from late Tuesday levels. Dealers increasingly are becoming more comfortable with the notion of a 1.54-1.58 trading range for the pair. The view now is that officials are not unhappy wit stabilizing the USD around More...
In currencies, dealers are noting a degree of risk aversion re-emerging during the US session, with the carry- related crosses moving lower. JPY and CHF are firmer as equity weakness is attributed to More...
Within the context of the long-term downtrend, price on the USD/CHF 4-hour chart, as shown, has been forming a short-term parallel downtrend channel since April of this year. More...
Something major is underway in the halls of international monetary policy. From Washington, to Frankfurt, to Ottawa and to London, central bankers are circling the policy wagons around inflation at a time when strong sustainable growth is far from assure More...
The dollar struck a 3-1/2-month high against the yen on Wednesday after more tough talk from Federal Reserve officials on inflation firmed expectations of a U.S. interest rate rise this year. More...
Dollar spent most of the night on either side of the 1.5500 level against the euro as it consolidated its gains after recording its biggest two day rally in nearly 3 years More...
The USD is now lower vs. the EUR from late Tuesday levels. Dealers increasingly are becoming more comfortable with the notion of a 1.54-1.58 trading range for the pair. The view now is that officials are not unhappy wit stabilizing the USD around the 1.55 More...
The New Zealand dollar came under heavy selling pressure overnight hitting 4 ½ month lows just above 0.7500. Offshore markets needed little encouragement in taking the USD higher following Chairman Bernanke’s earlier hawkish comments that he will “st More...
The Canadian dollar fell in a volatile session on Tuesday as lower oil prices and a rallying greenback ate away at sharp gains it recorded after a surprise Bank of Canada decision to keep its key interest rate steady.
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The dollar soared against the euro on Tuesday and hit a 3-1/2-month peak versus the yen after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke continued his tough talk on inflation, boosting expectations of higher interest rates. More...
The USD has advanced strongly vs. the EUR from late Monday levels. More indirect intervention threats by Secretary Paulson gave it a lift. They built on hawkish comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke late Monday, which came after ECB President Trichet pointed More...
Price action on the EUR/GBP daily chart, as shown, is currently consolidating in a sideways trading range. At the same time, however, this key cross has just hit and bounced up off of a significant More...
The dollar rose broadly, setting a three-month high against the yen on Tuesday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke raised his anti-inflationary language, stoking expectations for U.S. interest rate rises. More...
In the currencies overnight the USD was firmer across the board as dealers took notice of the hawkish comments from the Fed's Bernanke during the Asian hours. More...
The USD is trading sharply higher vs. the EUR from late Monday levels. Hawkish comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke late Monday provided the USD with additional support after earlier ECB President Trichet pointed out that he never had said that there was a g More...
The Canadian dollar ended lower versus the U.S. dollar on Monday as the market took profits before what is widely expected to an interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada on Tuesday.
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The USD is now trading sharply higher vs. the EUR from late Friday levels. Part of its gains resulted from a recapture of excessive weakness following the May U.S. employment report at the end of last week. Also a comment by ECB President Trichet after th More...
The dollar jumped on Monday as top Treasury and Federal Reserve officials voiced concern about its recent slide, raising the chances that officials could step into the foreign exchange market to support the U.S. currency. More...
The New Zealand dollar was well offered through offshore trading. The underlying “logic” for broad USD strength in early trade was not entirely clear. Players were presumably weary being caught short USDs ahead of potentially more USD supportive comme More...
The USD managed to recover from its recent losses following commentary last week regarding the possibility of an ECB rate hike in July, the higher US unemployment rate and the “super spike” in crude. More...
Risk appetite is improving from Friday’s activity, while the dollar falls across the board with the exception of the Japanese yen, which is the broad loser in this morning’s trade. More...
The USD is trading cautiously lower vs. the EUR from late Friday levels. Markets are still digesting the USD tumble from Late last week after the spike in the U.S. unemployment rate and the comments by ECB President Trichet after the central council meeti More...
The euro hit a six-week high versus the dollar and a seven-month peak against the yen on Monday, bolstered by expectations of a European Central Bank rate hike next month. More...
After Friday’s poor NFP results, the greenback started the week off much the same way it went out - by losing yet more ground to the euro and the pound and the Swiss franc. More...
Looking ahead, there is only one economic release scheduled in the US today, the April pending home sales, which are due out at 10:00 ET. There is no new supply today, however there are a few Fed speakers. More...
Financial markets will still be reacting this week to the strong hint by the ECB that it will raise interest rates at its next meeting in July. Even if the rise does not occur in July, and it looks like it will, the monthly inflation profile suggests that More...
Chaos Theory FX Solutions Sunday June 8, 2008 - 21:50:30 GMT
The New Zealand dollar was well and truly sidelined during the Friday night session, despite plenty of action elsewhere. Amid a sharp 380pt fall in equities, an $11/bbl+ rise in crude oil prices to record highs and a 150pt+ surge in the euro the NZD trade More...
remember in the summer of 2006 I would face my blank computer screen on a Friday and wonder, what I could write about? The media was all Goldilocks, all the time. Today, there is such a target-rich environment. I could probably write three letters a week, More...
• Euro Unfazed By German Growth As ECB Rate Warnings Drive Bulls
• Commodity Dollars: Canadian Dollar Treads Water As Record Oil Offset Weak Labor Data More...
The Canadian dollar fell on Friday as a record surge in oil prices stirred concerns about the impact a U.S. slowdown could have on Canada, despite the direct benefits of expensive crude More...
The dollar fell on Friday as an unexpected surge in the U.S. jobless rate revived fears of a deeper and more prolonged economic downturn, diminishing the prospects of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes by year-end. More...
Depending upon how the downtrend resistance line is drawn on the USD/JPY daily chart, as shown, the pair could have either already hit significant downtrend resistance yesterday More...
Up until Thursday afternoon, the main focus was on the dollar. EUR-USD firmed to below 1.54 temporarily. This was mainly due to remarks made by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke on the subject of exchange rates; he said that More...
The USD is consolidating from its recent losses ensuing from th ECB press conference on Thursday. EUR/USD is holding below the level of 1.5630, where Fed Chairman Bernanke addressed earlier this week that he was 'attentive' to the implications of a weak U More...
A typically quiet pre-NFP night, as EURUSD spent most of its time consolidating around the 1.5600 figure and currency traders absorbed the impact of yesterday’s surprisingly hawkish press conference by ECB chief Jean Claude Trichet. More...
The USD is trading cautiously vs. the EUR from late Thursday levels. Market are still digesting the unexpected comments by ECB President Trichet after the central council meeting that hinted the central bank is considering a “small”, +25bps, rate hike More...
The euro hit a five month high versus the yen on Friday, and added to hefty gains against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said a rate hike was possible as soon as next month. More...
• Euro Surges As ECB’s Trichet Indicates They May Be Hawkish Enough To Hike in July
• Pound Recovers Early Morning Losses After BoE Keeps Rates Steady More...
The Canadian dollar finished a touch higher against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after rallying sharply from a 1-month low as a weaker greenback sent the price of oil higher and gave a lift to the commodity-linked currency.
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The euro surged on Thursday after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled a July rate increase for the euro-zone, undercutting a recovery in the dollar that had started to gather steam.
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The USD is trading sharply lower vs. the EUR from late Wednesday levels. Markets were blindsided by a comments by ECB President Trichet after the central council meeting that hinted the central bank is considering a “small”, +25bps, rate hike after it More...
The New Zealand dollar extended its dovish RBNZ inspired slide early in the overnight session by another 50pts, briefly touching a low of 0.7615. Short term players then starting booking profits in early NY trading helping the NZD retrace back toward 0.76 More...
The USD erased earlier gains seen in Europe after the ECB's Trichet raised his level of inflationary concern. The ECB now sees continued upside risks to price pressures, adding that the central bank is in state in "heightened alertness." More...
Looking ahead, on the data front initial jobless claims and continuing claims are due out at 8:30 ET this morning, and will be followed by Q1 mortgage delinquencies at 10:00 ET. In central bank speak t More...
The USD is trading roughly steady vs. the EUR from late Wednesday levels. The pair continues to consolidate its losses from Tuesday. The EUR/USD is still pivoting the neutral 1.5500 line. The ECB policy decision (no change expected)and press conference wi More...
The dollar hit a three-month high versus the yen on Thursday boosted by a view U.S. interest rates have troughed, while investors awaited rate decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England later in the day. More...
• British Pound Slumps As UK Services Sector Contracts, BOE Expected To Leave Rates Steady
• Commodity Dollars: Aussie Jumps On GDP, Kiwi Plummets As Rate Cuts Come Into View More...
• British Pound Slumps As UK Services Sector Contracts, BOE Expected To Leave Rates Steady
• Commodity Dollars: Aussie Jumps On GDP, Kiwi Plummets As Rate Cuts Come Into View More...
The Canadian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar for a fourth straight session on Wednesday due to another retreat in oil prices and a report suggesting the Bank of Canada should continue cutting More...
The dollar rose on Wednesday after Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke highlighted growing inflation expectations as a "significant concern," yet another sign the central bank was likely done cutting interest rates. More...
The USD is trading roughly steady vs. the EUR from late Tuesday levels. That is a notable accomplishment given the magnitude of the EUR/USD loss on Tuesday. More...
he New Zealand dollar rose modestly in early overnight trading but relinquished those gains fairly easily though afternoon NY trading in the wake of yet more hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Bernanke. More...
With Bernanke dropping a bomb on dollar bears Tuesday, I have read in a number of places about the upcoming “G7” meeting in Osaka as a potential launching pad for a dollar accord rocket. The problem here is G7 is really G8 More...
The dollar held steady versus a basket of six major currencies on Wednesday, keeping hefty gains made the previous session on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's warning about the inflationary threat from a weak U.S. currency.
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In currencies dealers continued to take note of a potential change in USD sentiment following Bernanke's comments on Tuesday. It was the first phase of verbal intervention by Bernanke since the change in the FX language at the April G7 meeting. More...
After a thorough drubbing yesterday which saw the euro lose nearly 200 points to the dollar, the unit stabilized at the 1.5450 level for most of Asian and European trade More...
The USD is holding steady vs. the EUR from late Tuesday levels. The GBP has eased vs. the EUR and USD following a weaker than expected Services PMI report. A key focus now is BOE monetary policy with the central bank confronting high inflation and a weake More...
The Canadian dollar fell nearly1 percent on Tuesday against a U.S. dollar that rallied after comments from the head of the Federal Reserve that bolstered
the view that the Fed may raise More...
The New Zealand dollar was largely at the whim of the USD during the overnight session. Early on markets sold the USD on a continuation of the late Monday story that the S&P had downgraded financial stocks (both equity and USD negative). More...
The dollar surged on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned the weak U.S. currency posed a risk to inflation, adding to views the central bank could raise interest rates later this year.
More...
The USD was trading on the back foot early on Tuesday heading into comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke and ECB President Trichet. The markets appeared to have set up for neutral comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke and hawkish comments by ECB President Trichet More...
Currency Snapshot Black Swan Capital Tuesday June 3, 2008 - 18:40:31 GMT
Swissie is still acting well on risk relative to the pack… More...
Strong resistance on the EUR/JPY daily chart, as shown, has exerted repeated downward price pressure on the pair since the multi-year high was hit in July 2007. More...
Bernanke went today where no other Fed Chairman has gone in my 20 years doing this…he dove into the deep end of the dollar policy pool and all but threatened currency intervention to support the dollar – I think this was an implicit message. More...
In the currencies the USD was stymied by speculation that Lehman Brothers may need to raise additional capital due to trading losses. The EUR/USD was back above the 1.56-level, with European economic data also contributing to softer USD sentiment. More...
The EURUSD enjoyed an uninterrupted rally through the 1.5600 figure in overnight trade, boosted by better than expected EZ GDP results and news that Lehman Brothers may be looking to raise capital More...
The USD is trading on the back foot early on Tuesday. Some cite lingering worries following the downgrade of a couple of U.S. banks by S&P yesterday and caution ahead of May payroll data on Friday as a cause for softness in the unit.
The EUR/USD has dis More...
• Euro Strength Is Hurting Manufacturers, But Don’t Expect A ECB Rate Cut This Week
• British Pound: Will The Next Credit Crunch Be Triggered By The UK? More...
It was a fairly listless overnight session for the New Zealand dollar. The currency openedoffshore dealings around USD0.7820 and saw an early spike to USD0.7868 but it ran intogood offers and slipped back into a USD0.7830/55 range for the remainder of off More...
The Canadian dollar fell nearly 1 percent versus the U.S. dollar on Monday as talk of a Bank of Canada rate cut picked up steam following the unexpectedly weak
gross domestic data released late last More...
The yen surged on Monday after Standard & Poor's cut ratings on three big U.S. securities firms and a British lender gave a grim assessment of the UK mortgage market, igniting fears of more pain from the global credit crisis. More...
A press report early Monday that the U.S. might be considering a strike against terrorist bases in Iran gave oil a lift, although the Pentagon denied the report. The EUR/USD traded closely with oil during most of the U.S. session. The EUR/USD 1.5500 line More...
In addition to this week’s ISM surveys and Friday's labor report, Tuesday's speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke should be instrumental in adding further certainty to the market’s probability of 2008 Fed More...
A sign has emerged that price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, has begun a potential correction to the downside after reaching the all-time high in late April. More...
We’re sure you’ve heard this before: “Sell in May and go away!” It’s the media’s cute way of explaining the relatively low interest and falling prices during the summertime. More...
Sterling fell one percent versus the dollar on Monday on news of problems at the UK's largest buy-to-let mortgage lender, while the euro eased as euro zone manufacturing activity hit its lowest in almost three years. More...
News that Bradford & Bingley, UK’s biggest buy-to-let lender would issue a profit warning and have its chairman resign, stunned FX markets at the start of the week sending pound sharply lower More...
In the currencies the risk aversion theme returned to the market following confirmation of the restructured rights offering by UK mortgage provider Bradford and Bingley. The GBP probed below the 1.9600-handle making two-week lows, More...
Inflation expectations are rising…
A worrying aspect of the recent rise in actual inflation in the UK has been the accompanying rise in inflation expectations. Expectations matter for actual inflation. More...
Divergence between the GBP and EUR has been a key focus to start the new week. The U.K. May manufacturing PMI were weaker than expected. Worries about the stability of the British mortgage lending sector have resurfaced. The EZ manufacturing PMI was revis More...
As we suggested last week, a local top was put into oil recently as the short in the markets capitulated and turned bullish oil. It is frequently a sign of a top when observers universally take a one-sided view of a market. There are ongoing reports that More...
Last week I wrote that we could see a drop in the price of oil as speculators seemed to be storing oil in very large tankers and "slow steaming" them to port in a bet that prices would rise. When everyone is on the same side of the trade, the time is righ More...
• Euro Growth Comes Under Fire Just As ECB Decision Approaches
• Commodity Dollars: Canadian Economy Contracts For The First Time In Nearly Five Years More...
The Canadian dollar fell 0.4 percent against its U.S. counterpart on Friday after data showed the economy contracted in the most recent quarter for the first time in five years, all but confirming More...
The dollar fell against the euro on Friday as some investors sold the U.S. currency after a string of recent gains had pushed it to its first back-to-back monthly gains since January 2007. More...
Markets opened higher this morning, seeming to recover slightly from yesterday's late sell-off after the Commerce Department reported April inflation was in-line with estimates. More...
Looking at markets this week there is an unmistaken theme resonating – the US and hence global slowdown is much less a risk than previously believed and inflation is on the move up and demanding higher rates here and everywhere More...
EUR-USD has not been able to hold on to the gains it made during the course of the week. At the end of the week, the European currency stood at 1.55 – down over 3 cents from the beginning of the week. More...
The euro headed for its biggest weekly percentage fall in three months versus the dollar on Friday due to signs of a slowing euro zone economy, even as the region's inflation rose back to record highs. More...
In currency news overnight Ambrose Evans- Pritchard wrote in the Telegraph overnight that "Long-term private investors are pulling their money out of the Euro-zone at the fastest rate since the creation of the single currency, according to a report by the More...
Falling oil prices have continued to provide the USD with underlying support on Friday against Europe. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD is about steady. German retail sales fell a shocking -1.7% in April. A gain of +0.3% had been expected. This was just one more More...
The US dollar gained more ground overnight, garnering support from higher interest rates. A growing sense that the US economy has skirted a recession, and increasing recognition of inflation pressures, saw US ten-year bond yields reach their highest level More...
The Canadian dollar held on to close higher against the greenback on Thursday, but much of the early gains that were built on a big current account surplus were eroded by a sharp pullback in More...
The dollar rallied on Thursday, rising to a three-month high against the yen, on data showing the U.S. economy grew in the first quarter faster than previously estimated and as hawkish Federal Reserve comments boosted expectations for an interest rate inc More...
The tone of the USD is winding up the N.Y. session better. An, as expected upward revision in U.S. 1Q08 GDP was USD supportive Also, weaker than expected German employment data were a weight on the EUR/USD. Recently, the bias of much of the German and E-Z More...
The dollar rose against a basket of major currencies on Thursday after hawkish Federal Reserve comments prompted a jump in short-dated U.S. bond yields, lifting demand for assets denominated in the U.S. currency.
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Looking ahead, on the data front preliminary Q1 annualized GDP, personal consumption, core PCE, and price index data, along with the weekly initial jobless claims, and continuing claims are all due out at 8:30 ET this morning. More...
A surprising increase in the German unemployment helped push EURUSD below the 1.5600 figure in early European trade as evidence of economic slowdown in the 15 member union continued to mount. More...
The tone of the USD is better at this hour. Weaker than expected German employment data have been a weight on the EUR/.USD. Note recently that the bias of much of the German and E-Z data has been to the soft side of expectations. Comments by Dallas Fed Pr More...
• Euro: Economic Data Highlights ECB’s Slowing Growth, High Inflation Conundrum
• British Pound May Sustain Its High Volatility Thanks To A Busy Calendar More...
Whippy overnight trading left the US dollar broadly higher against the other majors. The day began with a sharp bounce in the USD against both currencies and commodities – crude oil fell by $2/barrel and gold lost $10/oz in a matter of minutes. More...
The Canadian dollar ended its four-day losing skid to end higher against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, as oil prices rebounded, giving a boost to the commodity-linked currency. More...
The dollar rose broadly on Wednesday as a better-than-expected report on U.S. durable goods orders for April bolstered the view the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates on hold or even raise them by year-end.
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The tone of the USD is neutral at this hour, falling crude oil prices earlier lifted it from its lows at the start of the session. The correlation between crude and the USD was tighter on crude weakness than it was on strength over the day. Thus the EUR/U More...
The tone of the USD is neutral at this hour, falling crude oil prices earlier lifted it from its lows at the start of the session. The correlation between crude and the USD was tighter on crude weakness than it was on strength over the day. Thus the EUR/U More...
The tone of the USD is neutral at this hour, falling crude oil prices earlier lifted it from its lows at the start of the session. The correlation between crude and the USD was tighter on crude weakness than it was on strength over the day. Thus the EUR/U More...
Markets were in a volatile mood this morning, opening well above yesterday's close on an upbeat durable goods report and declining oil prices, but erased much of the day's gains by mid- morning. More...
Within the context of the current horizontal consolidation range on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, price has formed a short-term uptrend bounded by two short parallel lines. More...
The dollar rose against the euro and a basket of major currencies on Wednesday but investors were in cautious mood, trapped between rising German inflation and oil extending its slide from recent record highs.
More...
In currency news overnight, according to the Wall Street Journal Vietnam has doubled its currency trading band, which will allow the dong to move 2% from its daily rate versus the USD. T More...
Another topsy turvy night of trade in the currency markets as EURUSD first rose nearly 100 points on the back of elevated inflation numbers only to give back all its gains as the region’s Current Account recorded its largest deficit in a decade. More...
The tone of the USD is neutral at this hour, although falling crude oil prices have lifted it from its lows earlier. In this case, it is pretty clear that the price of oil has been in a leadership role. The question now is whether sovereign players will b More...
The New Zealand dollar held its ground against a stronger US dollar, trading either side of 0.7900 for most of the overnight session. Fading expectations of RBNZ rate cuts in the near future, which have driven the NZD’s recovery in the last fortnight, w More...
The dollar rose broadly on Tuesday after oil prices fell and a report showed an unexpected rise in U.S. new home sales in April, boosting expectations the economic slowdown is not as bad as feared.
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The tone of the USD improved over the day on Tuesday in a session absent of major news. The EUR/USD was in a wide range earlier. Talk that Asian banks ran EUR/USD higher and then dumped it. Late chatter of sovereign bids at EUR/.USD 1.5700. More...
Lower commodity prices helped the USD rebound from one-month lows against the euro as the 1. 58 level was tested just prior to the European open. More...
The euro dived nearly a full U.S. cent from earlier one-month highs on Tuesday, after softer-than- expected German and French sentiment data cast a shadow over the health of the euro zone economy and made rate hikes less likely.
More...
In currency news overnight the Wall Street Journal wrote overnight that hedge funds are betting that Gulf nations will have to abandon their dollar currency pegs as a result of inflation in the Middle East. In trading the USD rebounded from 1-month lows a More...
We are more concerned about inflation than recession but a rise in inflation weakens real, or inflation adjusted, growth. To this extent, accelerating price inflation may raise the risk of recession (falling output) or a period of well below long run aver More...
The start of post holiday trade produced smiles on faces of euro bulls as the pair barreled its way above the 1.5800 figure on the back of strong German GDP More...
Trading is off to a relatively cautious start heading into N.Y. EUR/USD has been in a wide range earlier today. There is talk that Asian banks ran the pair higher and then dumped it later. No major economic data have been released today. Swiss trade figur More...
Market sentiment for the USD has turned negative in the latest week in part on the back of a sharp upward spike in the price of oil. It appears that the bears in the oil markets threw in the towel and capitulated in the latest week. It is often a sign of More...
Bank holidays in both the US and UK ensured that markets were quiet overnight. The major currencies generally held within recent ranges, with a 0.2% gain in the New Zealand dollar enough to leave it at the top of the heap. More...
• Euro: Will the German Economy Remain the Engine of Euro-zone Growth?
• British Pound: Will the Focus Shift Away from Inflation to the UK Economic Slowdown? More...
The Canadian dollar fell versus the U.S. dollar on Monday due to concern about how lofty energy prices could crimp global economic growth, but the currency's move was limited by an absence of trade More...
Why has the price of oil risen so much in the past few months? Is it a supply and demand issue as some believe; or is it because of an out-of-control futures market driven by the proliferation of commodity index funds and rampant speculation, as everyone More...
The dollar fell on Friday and was on track for its steepest weekly decline against a basket of major currencies in two months, as investors worried surging oil prices could deepen an economic downturn and fan inflation pressures. More...
The USD continued its soft tone in the session as higher commodities continued to weigh on sentiment. The dollar was unable to gain any momentum More...
Bearish price-oscillator divergence on the EUR/CHF daily chart, as shown, helped to presage the downturn in the pair that began early in the week. More...
The dollar looked set for its steepest weekly fall against a basket of major currencies in two months on Friday, hit by surging oil prices and concerns that the U.S. may be entering a toxic phase of slowing growth and rising inflation.
More...
·Looking ahead, things are pretty quiet ahead of the extended weekend. On the data front April existing home sales data is due out at 10:00 ET. There is no new supply scheduled in the US today, nor are there any central bank speakers scheduled. Furthermo More...
The Euro-zone flash May Services PMI was weaker than expected (50.6 vs. 51.7 expected), while the manufacturing PMI was almost unchanged at 50.5, just above the 50 boom or bust level. UK 1Q07 GDP was unrevised. Dealers continue to look for any signs of we More...
The market delivered its verdict on yesterday’s Budget – more stimulatory than expected, and hence likely to delay any rate cuts by the RBNZ. We agree with this view, and have pushed out the expected timing of cuts to March next year More...
The Canadian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after a report showed retail sales were weaker than expected in March, but the commodity-linked currency was supported by robust oil prices, which prevented it from losing a lot of ground.
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The dollar rose broadly on Thursday but support remained fragile as oil touched new record highs and a gloomier Federal Reserve growth forecast added to fears that the U.S. economy may be heading toward stagflation.
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Weak new industrial orders for the Eurozone were a weight on the EUR today. Also better than expected U.K. retail sales data helped the GBP vs. the USD and against the EUR. The underlying sales data were not as positive as the headline report suggested. More...
he USD rebounded from its earlier lows against the majors aided by better weekly jobless claims data and cautious comments from European officials on the 2008 growth outlook. More...
The dollar edged up on Thursday but investors remained downbeat on the currency after the Federal Reserve's 2008 cut its growth forecast and crude oil surged to record highs reinforcing fears on the U.S. economy.
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Looking ahead, on the data front the weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims are due out at 8:30ET, and will be followed at 10:00ET by the Q1 house price index. In central bank speak More...
Weak new industrial orders for the Eurozone has been a weight on the EUR today. Negative USD sentiment after the Fed Minutes yesterday has mostly faded, with the central bank revising down its growth forecast and fretting about mounting inflationary press More...
The New Zealand dollar was bid throughout the offshore session, pushing up through 0.78 in the London morning. The catalyst was a stronger than expected German Ifo report which saw EUR/USD higher, dragging the USD lower across the board. More...
The Canadian dollar rose 0.8 percent against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday after a report showed inflation was creeping back into Canada, prompting investors to bet the Bank of Canada's rate-easing cycle was nearing its end.
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The dollar fell to a one-month low versus the euro on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut its 2008 growth forecast and warned of higher unemployment, reducing prospects of an interest rate hike later this year.
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The Fed meeting minutes were taken as negative by the USD and the markets, with the central bank revising down its growth forecast and fretting about mounting inflationary pressures. More...
The USD was broadly weaker on Wednesday as higher commodity prices and better German economic data weighed upon its sentiment. The EUR/USD probed the 1.5780 area to embark on a potential retest of More...
Believing in the case being made today for why US stocks and the dollar should rally, and bonds and commodities sell off reminds me of 1970 when an urban legend captured the imagination of teenagers (yes me too) – Paul McCartney was dead and replaced by More...
The euro hit one month highs versus the dollar and sterling on Wednesday after a surprise improvement in German business sentiment added to talk that the next move in euro zone interest rates may be up rather than down. More...
Looking ahead, there is only one major release expected this morning, and that is the FOMC minutes from the April 29/30 policy-setting meeting where the FOMC cut rates by 25bps as expected. More...
The German IFO Institute business confidence survey rebounded, sending the Euro above 1.570 for the first time since last month’s survey disappointed. More...
An unexpected gain in the headline German IFO survey has given the EUR a lift today. The market response proves once again that Germany=Euroland in the minds of the forex markets. There have been complaints that the ECB operates this way also. More...
The US dollar resumed its slide against the major currencies, losing the most ground against the Europeans. Soaring commodity prices – including another record high of $129 for crude oil – and stronger than expected inflation figures weighed on US sen More...
The dollar fell on Tuesday as talk of higher euro zone interest rates prompted investors to increase exposure to the euro, though losses were capped by inflation data that muddied the U.S. interest rate outlook. More...
A renewed focus on the price of oil fueled a negative shift in sentiment for the USD. The outlook initially turned sour following a strong German PPI report. Later, the markets sold the EUR/USD on a weaker than expected economic sentiment reading in the v More...
In currencies the debate had centered in recent sessions on hawkish inflationary concerns among central bankers and the impact of slowing economic momentum on currencies, a point that the German Bundesbank highlighted in its monthly comments on Monday. More...
As of this writing, the current daily price bar on the AUD/USD price chart, as shown, has just broke out tentatively above a key dynamic resistance level. More...
Since the Fed’s rescue of Bear Stearns in March and the acceptance of wider collateral by the world’s central banks, including the Bank of England with its Special Liquidity Scheme, there have been signs that the worst of the credit crisis may be over More...
The euro hit a three-week high against the dollar on Tuesday, boosted by comments from a German think-tank that euro zone interest rates would soon rise. More...
Looking ahead, April PPI data is dues out in the US this morning at 8:30 ET, and will be followed by the May IBD/TIPP economic optimism at 10:00 ET. In Fed speak the Fed vice-chairman Kohn is due to speak about the US economy in New Orleans at 9:00 ET. More...
After German Producer Prices increased at the fastest pace in 2 years, EURUSD recouped all of yesterday’s losses in early European trade but the rally was temporarily stymied by worse than expected reading from the ZEW survey More...
Sentiment for the USD has turned south following hawking monetary policy comments by the head of the ZEW economic think tank. Initially, the markets had sold the EUR/USD on a weaker than expected economic sentiment reading in the volatile ZEW index. Deale More...
Local holidays through much of Asia left currency markets thin and uninspired yesterday, and this tone continued through the overnight session. The US dollar dipped to a two-week low against the euro but failed to push on, and a slightly better than expec More...
The dollar rebounded from a 2-1/2 week low versus the euro on Monday after a key forecasting gauge unexpectedly rose in April, suggesting that a sharp economic downturn in the U.S. might be nearing a bottom.
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Sentiment for the USD improved again on Monday as the EUR/USD exerted a gravitational pull when the pair tried to extend its gains to above the 1.5600 line. This same gravitational pull also surfaced last week on a test below the 1.5400 line. On Monday, M More...
The dollar firmed against the European currencies in early trading this morning as dealers focused on the softer economic growth outlook for the Euro Zone. The German Bundesbank noted that growth was likely to wind down in coming months; More...
It will be a crucial week for the euro as traders obtain two key reports on German business and investor sentiment surveys, which may prove instrumental in determining the next turning point... More...
Market sentiment for the USD is now flux after having turned positive in recent weeks. The lead EUR/USD pair has paused and now is pivoting the 1.55 line. It seems that many who had been targeting the EUR/USD pair at 1.50 by the end of May are now revisin More...
Looking ahead, on the data front April leading indicators are due out in the US after the equity market open. There are no central bank speakers scheduled in the US today, nor is there any new supply scheduled. On the earning front More...
The dollar slipped to a 2-1/2 week low against a basket of major currencies on Monday, as the worst U.S. consumer confidence reading in nearly three decades raised concerns about stagflation.
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The EURUSD broke through the 1.5600 level in early European trade today as anti-dollar sentiment continued to dominate in the wake of Friday’s horrid U of Michigan consumer confidence data which printed at 59.5 – the lowest reading in more than 28 yea More...
The EURUSD broke through the 1.5600 level in early European trade today as anti-dollar sentiment continued to dominate in the wake of Friday’s horrid U of Michigan consumer confidence data which printed at 59.5 – the lowest reading in more than 28 yea More...
Short-term market sentiment for the USD suddenly turned negative Friday in the U.S. There were a couple of unlikely catalysts for the shift in sentiment, but most likely, market positions (USD longs) simply got too far ahead of fundamental improvements in More...
US dollar weakness resumed on Friday night as nervous speculators cut their long USD positions. While the data was mixed at best – better than expected housing starts but weaker consumer confidence – More...
Is the economy poised for a recovery, as the stock market seems to expect? Or are we in for another few more quarters of recession and/or slow growth? In this week's letter we take a look at consumer spending, inflation, and other data to see if we can fi More...
The Canadian dollar was flatagainst the U.S. dollar on Friday in quiet trade ahead of Canada's Victoria Day long weekend, but it did record its second straight weekly gain as the commodity-linked currency
drew support from robust oil prices.
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In currencies the dollar was consolidating against the majors for most of the trading day until the mid-US morning. The EUR/USD finally broke above the 1.5430 to 1.5530 hourly consolidation range. More...
Price on the AUD/NZD daily chart, as shown, has just bumped up against resistance within the context of a rather well-defined parallel uptrend channel. More...
Short-term yields rise significantly, but with little effect on the forex market
Strong German growth in Q1 drives EMU growth, outlook for Q2 negative
· US, EMU and Japanese central bankers are cautious as to growth outlook More...
The dollar drifted down versus the euro on Friday, pressured by the contrast between Thursday's weak U.S. jobs and manufacturing data and forecast-beating growth figures from the euro zone. More...
Japanese GDP surprised to the upside expanding at 0.8% versus 0.6% expected as growth from emerging markets offset the downtown in US demand, but the positive impact of the news was short lived, More...
Looking ahead, the April housing starts and building permits are due out in the US ahead of the equity market open, and will be followed shortly thereafter by the release of the preliminary May University of Michigan confidence i More...
Short-term market sentiment for the USD remains in flux as the EUR/USD pivots the 1.55 line. Some who had been targeting EUR/USD 1.50 by month end are now starting to revise their targets to 1.5500. They are saying that Europe is not weakening as fast as More...
The New Zealand dollar lost ground after yesterday’s shocking retail sales figures, but reclaimed it all overnight. Sales volumes were much weaker than expected at -1.2% for the quarter – weak auto sales were the main factor, reflecting reduced access More...
The Canadian dollar closed at parity against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as robust energy prices helped it recover from early losses after the release of weak manufacturing sales data. More...
The yen rose across the board on Thursday as investors reduced demand for riskier assets such as stocks after a series of weak U.S. economic data added to anxiety over the country's growth picture.
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After a clean breakdown of the short-term uptrend line within the context of the long-term parallel downtrend channel on the USD/JPY daily chart, as shown, price has performed the beginnings ... More...
Looking ahead, economic data kicks off with the weekly jobless claims and continuing claims at 8:30 et, which will be accompanied by May empire manufacturing data. Shortly thereafter, More...
The euro strengthened on Thursday after Germany reported its strongest quarterly growth in 12 years but gains were muted as investors focused on likely slower growth ahead. More...
A rollercoaster night in EURUSD as the currency pair was first lifted by better than forecast GDP numbers only to fall below the key 1.5500 level once again after inflation data revealed that core CPI readings have eased dramatically.
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Short-term market sentiment for the USD remains in flux. Strong flash 1Q08 GDP GDP figures for Germany and the E-Z released today have provided a bid to the EUR/USD, but some point out that subsequent data have seen the economy slowing substantially. Fina More...
The New Zealand dollar drifted lower against the US dollar, but was again generally sidelined in favour of the major currencies. The NZD traded below 0.76 for the first time since January as the USD initially tracked higher, but softer than expected US in More...
The Canadian dollar fell against a stronger U.S. dollar on Wednesday, as oil prices dropped from their record highs, thwarting the currency's bid above parity with the greenback.
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With the dollar-strengthening plummet that has occurred in the past couple of days on the GBP/USD daily chart, as shown, price action has tentatively formed a large descending triangle pattern. More...
Market sentiment for the USD continues to improve following comments by French Finance Minister Lagarde late Tuesday that at 1.5500 the EUR/USD was overvalued by 20%. This implies a French target on EUR/USD of about 1.2900. Few dealers feel that her persp More...
In currencies, the dollar saw its earlier gains evaporate following the “softer” April CPI. Dealers noted that companies may be holding down prices to attract customers as the US economy struggles to maintain positive growth. More...
The dollar rose broadly on Wednesday, building on gains made after robust U.S. retail data as more investors adopted the view that the Federal Reserve may be done with cutting interest rates, at least for now.
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Looking ahead, focus in the US this morning is likely to rest upon the April CPI due out ahead of the equity market open. Headline CPI is expected at 0.3% m/m and 4.0% y/y; while the ex-food & energy More...
Market sentiment for the USD continues to improve. Comments by French Finance Minister Lagarde that at 1.5500 the EUR/USD was overvalued by 20% was an impetus for its latest advance, although her perspective is not necessarily that of the ECB. High U.K. a More...
The New Zealand dollar lagged the other major currencies again overnight, but was generally sidelined in favour of more important themes offshore. The NZD stuck to a narrow range through most of the day and briefly popped back above 0.77, before succumbin More...
The Canadian dollar pushed higher against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, helped by a surge in oil prices, but it failed to maintain a break above parity with the greenback.
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Market sentiment for the USD remains in flux. Tuesday it turned back positive again. Nevertheless, we hold to the observation that the markets have tried to switch to a medium term view on prospective relative growth patterns in the U.S. vs. Europe. More...
The U.S. dollar rallied broadly on Tuesday after a report on April retail sales beat forecasts and supported views that the Federal Reserve will probably stop cutting interest rates next month.
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Currencies and fixed-income also exhibited volatility through the session as central banker comments debated the monetary policy issues concerning inflationary expectations and growth objectives, and over how quickly interest rates should be cut if growth More...
It is hard to remember a time when the US dollar has experienced a major trend change without some form of coordinated currency intervention by G7 central banks and finance ministers. More...
The dollar rose broadly on Tuesday as some investors speculated that the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its rate cutting cycle, while a fall in stock prices cranked up risk aversion, supporting the yen. More...
Pound saw tremendous whipsaw action tonight as it was pulled in opposite directions by higher than expected inflation readings on one side and deteriorating economic data on the other. More...
Market sentiment for the USD continues to fluctuate. Early Tuesday it has turned back positive again. Nevertheless, we hold to the observation that the markets have tried to switch to a medium term view on prospective relative growth patterns in the U.S. More...
The Canadian dollar rose slightly against the U.S. dollar on Monday, but remained stuck in a tight range, while bonds rose as traders took advantage of lower prices after last week's big selloff.
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The dollar rose against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc on Monday as investors snapped up riskier assets such as stocks, encouraged by a dip in oil prices and unexpectedly strong earnings from HSBC.
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..There has been a lot of debate about the impact of the credit crisis on the UK economy, with any new sign of weakness in economic data automatically laid at its door. We will not attempt in this More...
The $1.2 pullback in oil is keeping any euro advances in check near the $1.55 figure. Currency markets will take this week’s busy schedule of US economic reports as the first tangible basis of whether the dollar recovery is warranted by improved US econ More...
The dollar rose a full percent against the yen on Monday and approached a two-month high versus a basket of currencies, boosted by a slight rise in risk demand and growing speculation that U.S. interest cuts may be ending. More...
In currencies, the USD started the European session on a firm note as dealers took notice of comments in the weekend press regarding a ''possible'' floor plan being worked on for the dollar. A WSJ article reported over the weekend that More...
Pound roared back from a steep selloff after UK Producer Prices posted their sharpest increase ever recorded, negating any possibility of a near term BoE rate cut, as inflation pressures continue to plague UK economy. I More...
Market sentiment for the USD turned back positive on the USD early Monday, as the dust settled on the developments at the end of last week. We had noted in the middle of the previous week that it had seemed that the markets were starting to switch to a me More...
Outlook
With the New Zealand economy set for a sharp slowdown this year, owing at least as much to domestic factors as to the turmoil offshore, the NZD is likely to lag among the major currencies. More...
Market sentiment for the USD had been gaining momentum in the early part of the latest week, but turned less positive following the ECB decision and press conference on Thursday. Clearly, the central bank is still focused primarily on price levels in the More...
The Canadian dollar rose more than a cent against the U.S. dollar on Friday, a move attributed to technical factors as well as domestic jobs data, against a positive backdrop of record-setting oil More...
The dollar fell on Friday as another round of credit market losses prompted investors to reduce exposure to risky assets and heightened concern about the health of the U.S. economy.
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In currencies, Risk aversion returned to the front burner as concerns over the financial sector health resurfaced following AIG's earnings after the bell on Thursday. More...
Over the last fortnight, the US dollar has continued to firm slightly. EUR-USD fell to below 1.53 for a time, while USD-JPY traded at around 105 for a few days. From about the middle of the week, when US equity markets began to crumble, the yen started to More...
The dollar fell against most currencies on Friday as a rise in risk aversion prompted by sagging stock markets helped bolster low yielding currencies such as the yen
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In currencies, dealers noted overnight that the sentiment for the USD has been less positive since the ECB rate decision and press conference yesterday. The EUR/USD approached the 1.55 area, while the More...
he EURUSD continued its rebound from multi-week lows in the aftermath of yesterday’s very tough, unapologetically hawkish press conference by ECB President Jean Claude Trichet. More...
Market sentiment for the USD turned less positive following the ECB decision and press conference on Thursday. Clearly, the central bank is still focused primarily on price levels in the German economy to the detriment of a sizeable (35-45%) portion of th More...
The New Zealand dollar fell sharply yesterday after the shockingly weak jobs figures for the March quarter. Employment fell 1.3%, the largest quarterly fall in 19 years, More...
The Canadian dollar dropped against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after data showed Canadian housing starts fell 12 percent in April, and market players were reluctant to take big positions ahead of a key employment report due on Friday.
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Market sentiment for the USD turned less bullish following the ECB decision and press conference on Thursday. Key also in recent sessions has been a couple of pieces of weak data out of Europe and Germany. The markets now appear to be taking a medium term More...
The European central banks did little to surprise the markets in terms of expected interest rate decisions. Both the BOE and ECB maintained a steady policy as they weighed the cross currents of slower growth and higher inflation. More...
The FT story (below) on Europe and US officials (Treasury, Fed, Eurogroup and ECB) unite on a stronger dollar came out last night and had all the hallmarks of a Greg Ip-like story from the halls of monetary power to deliberately get the dollar up versus t More...
GBPUSD rose above the 1.9600 figure in immediate aftermath of the BoE rate announcement as UK monetary authorities stuck to their script and kept rates steady at 5.0%. More...
Market sentiment for the USD has continued to improve heading into the ECB decision and press conference today. Key also in recent sessions has been a couple of pieces of weak data out of Europe and Germany. The markets now appear to be taking a medium te More...
The euro hit a two-month low against the dollar on Thursday, hurt by a report that U.S. and European officials want the dollar to strengthen, as markets awaited a European Central Bank rate decision and statement. More...
• Dollar Sees Sharp Advance As Traders Not Ready To Give Up On Rebound
• Euro Tumbles As Retail Sales Reflect Economic Slowdown, Will the ECB Remain Hawkish? More...
• Dollar Sees Sharp Advance As Traders Not Ready To Give Up On Rebound
• Euro Tumbles As Retail Sales Reflect Economic Slowdown, Will the ECB Remain Hawkish? More...
The New Zealand dollar was consistently sold overnight as the US dollar recovered against all of the major currencies. The NZD was also weighed down yesterday by the RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report, which highlighted the downside risks to the New Zeal More...
The Canadian dollar fell 0.4 percent against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as investors worried that record high oil prices would begin to crimp global economic growth.
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Market sentiment for the USD has continued to improve after a successful consolidation at the 1.5500 level in recent sessions. The USD was boosted by much weaker than expected Eurozone retail sales report. It might be the European economy (including Germa More...
The dollar rose on Wednesday as a surprise advance in U.S. productivity added to gains booked after a Federal Reserve official said the central bank must stand ready to raise interest rates to combat inflation. More...
While the market seems intent on buying dollars and selling euros making status quo outcome of Thursday’s ECB press conference only mildly bearish for the dollar, the notion that President Trichet and the Governing Council are ready to shift the focus o More...
The USD continued to maintain a steadily firming tone during the US morning following hawkish inflationary comments from Fed's Hoenig during the Asian session and data that was below expectations for More...
Weak euro zone maufacturing and retail data combined to send the euro towards 5-week lows versus the dollar on Wednesday, while the greenback garnered support after hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official. More...
The USD is trading higher on the back of a much weaker than expected Eurozone retail sales report. Some are wondering if the European economy is going to start weakening more now as a lagged effect from the high EUR, strong oil prices and the slowdown els More...
The dollar edged lower against the euro and yen on Tuesday, its second straight daily decline, after a bigger-than-expected quarterly loss at Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) suggested more financial market turmoil ahead.
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The USD was continuing to display a potential “decoupling theme” throughout the European session from its usual inverse relationship with commodities. Dealer continued to speculate that the Russian Central Bank could revalue the Ruble More...
The dollar gave up tentative gains on Tuesday versus the euro, pressured by waning risk appetite as European equities fell, while the single currency drew support from slightly stronger than expected service sector data. More...
Eurozone producer prices rose 0.7% in March helping erase losses from the Asian session, as energy costs rose to 1.8% from 1.1% the month prior. More...
The USD is holding steady following a volatile session on Monday. A key driver of trade was a spike in oil prices to new highs. Dealers were feeling that the EUR/USD should trade in tandem with the oil price, but it is possible that the USD influences the More...
The Canadian dollar pushed higher against a broadly weaker U.S. dollar on Monday, boosted by robust commodity prices, while domestic bond prices ended lower. More...
The dollar fell on Monday for the first time in three sessions as oil prices hit a record high, sparking debate about the strength of the U.S. economy. More...
As with Friday’s payrolls report, the market seems to have read the upside surprise in the ISM as more of a positive for growth trades than for the US dollar. More...
The USD displayed a degree of potential decoupling from its usual inverse relationship with commodities as the dollar maintained a steady tone in today's session despite a rise in basic metals and oil prices. More...
We focus today on the unfolding divergence between the rally in US equity markets of the past 3 weeks and the macroeconomic data in the US which have swayed from neutral to deteriorating. Friday’s release of US payrolls triggered a rally in equities and More...
Looking ahead, the data front is light overall, with the April ISM non-manufacturing composite the only number scheduled in the US today. In central bank speak big Ben is due to speak on mortgage foreclosures at Columbia university. More...
The USD has corrected modestly lower in Monday in a session market by holidays in the key Tokyo and London centers. The markets are still adjusting to the U.S. April jobs figures on Friday that were not bad as feared. Recent data from the U.S. have been w More...
Sentiment in favor of the USD has continued to improve. However, the latest USD path upward has been uneven, making it difficult for anyone trying to hold onto a long position in the USD. Early Friday, the Fed made available additional USD funds to the EC More...
The US dollar was given a boost after some better than expected jobs figures. The April payrolls decline of 20k was much less than we expected, and the separate household survey recorded a 362k gain, dragging the unemployment rate down from 5.1% to 5.0%. More...
If we are to believe the government statistics, the GDP of the US grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of this year. And unemployment actually fell. And there were only 20,000 job losses. This week we do a quick review of why the statistics can be so mislead More...
The Canadian dollar capped off its second straight losing week with a flat close against the U.S. dollar on Friday, torn between the boost from lofty oil prices and the drag from solid U.S. economic data. More...
The dollar scaled two-month highs against the yen and a basket of currencies on Friday after an unexpectedly small drop in U.S. nonfarm payrolls left investors hoping any U.S. recession would prove a shallow one. More...
In the Q1 2008 Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (CCS), there was a jump in lenders’ expectations that default rates on loans would rise sharply, see chart a. The chart highlights that there was a greater number of respondents expecting defaults More...
Looking at the big picture, we see that having rallied for three consecutive weeks now, from 0.9926 (14-Apr) to 1.0511 (1-May) USD-CHF is closing up on an important Resistance at 1.0550. ... More...
Looking ahead, the focus this morning will rest upon the famed non-farm payrolls data for the month of April, which are expected to show a decline of 75K. While the range of estimates is varied, a recent survey of over 80 economists did not yield any esti More...
The dollar steadied versus the euro on Friday as investors looked ahead to a key non-farm payrolls report for clues on whether the economy is strong enough to enable a pause in the rate-cutting cycle.
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The strong performance the USD on Thursday surprised many traders following the late Wednesday “sell the fact” response to the FOMC decision. Most would have expected a more cautious session. Talk was that a large conversion by the Russian central ban More...
Traders squared up their positions ahead of US Non Farm payroll data due to be released at 12:30 GMT today and EURUSD climbed back towards the 1.5500 figure after a day of battering yesterday that saw the unit lose nearly 200 points against the greenback. More...
The New Zealand and Australian dollars gave back yesterday's gains as the US dollar rebounded overnight. The NZD drifted down to 0.7740 but held above yesterday's lows, while the AUD fell back towards 0.93. More...
The Canadian dollar was knocked down 1 percent to its lowest level in over two weeks versus the U.S. dollar on Thursday due mainly to a decline in prices for the key commodities that Canada produces More...
Overall the USD maintaining a firm tone as the Fed signaled a pause in its rate cut cycle after yesterday's 25bps rate cut. EUR/USD trades at 5-week lows as it approaches the 1.55 handle. More...
Despite an attempt to deliver a clear signal of a pause in policy easing after 325bps of accommodation and a host of unprecedented liquidity measures, the FOMC still has a terrible hand… More...
The dollar hit a one month high versus the euro on Thursday as market focus shifted from the Federal Reserve not signalling a definitive end to rate cuts, to worries about the health of the euro zone economy.
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The outlook for the USD has improved from late Wednesday following a “sell the fact” response to the FOMC decision. With the dust having now settled, the tone of the currency has improved. The FOMC yesterday pushed back on the market’s desire to loc More...
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp to 2 percent, which was right in line with the market’s expectations. However the US dollar sold off because the market was disappointed that the central bank did not give them more. More...
Morning Report Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday April 30, 2008 - 21:54:23 GMT
The Fed cut its funds target by 25bp to 2.0%, as was widely expected. The statement was little changed from March, in particular the inflation comments, although "downside risks to growth remain" was dropped this time. The Fed noted More...
The Canadian dollar closed higher versus a generally weaker U.S. dollar on Wednesday as the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates and left the door open to further easing. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD has turned negative late on Wednesday following a session full of market-moving developments. The FOMC cut its Fed Funds target by-25bps to 2.0%, as widely expected. Its policy statement did not clearly signal that this was th More...
The dollar fell against the euro on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, but did not convincingly signal a pause in its easing campaign aimed at propping up an ailing economy. More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Wednesday April 30, 2008 - 16:14:21 GMT
Equities push higher ahead of FOMC announcement. The early news flow was generally positive leading off with an ADP employment report that indicated job growth of 10K v the -60K expected. Q1 advanced GDP confirmed a slowing US economy but the 0.6% reading More...
The Aussie seems to have built decent Support in the 0.9326-9293 region. If and while this holds (it might), an upmove towards 0.94+ could take place. NOTE, however, that a rise past 0.9370-80... More...
The euro fell to a four-week low against the dollar on Wednesday as weak euro zone sentiment data and slowing inflation raised expectations that the European Central Bank may ease up on its hawkish rates stance.
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Looking ahead, the economic scheduled in the US is packed this morning, making up for the data void experienced over the past couple of days. Data will begin with the volatile ADP employment change for April, which is expected to yield results of -60K, an More...
The Euro fell below 1.5530 on weaker than expected German employment data. Jobless claims fell a mere 7K against expectations of 30K, as Europe’s largest economy starts to show signs of weakening.
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Market Sentiment for the USD has turned more positive into the FOMC decision later today. A -25bp rate cut is seen as a lock. Many feel that this could be the final easing of the cycle. The major focus will be on the tone of the policy statement. Some say More...
Global-View: Daily FX Calendar Outlook and Highlights 30 April 2008 More...
Morning Report Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday April 29, 2008 - 22:41:49 GMT
The New Zealand dollar continues to slide, reaching a three-month low of 0.7730 overnight. The move began with yesterday's surprise $50m trade deficit, which dragged the currency from 0.7860 to 0.7820 over the day. The selling continued overnight, More...
The Canadian dollar edged higher against the U.S. currency on Tuesday, but stayed in a close range as investors looked ahead to a key interest rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
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The dollar rose to an almost one-month high versus the euro on Tuesday, buoyed by growing views the Federal Reserve is ready to signal a pause in its interest rate cutting-campaign and by weak European economic data.
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Looking ahead, April consumer confidence is the only major release expected in the US this morning, and is due after the equity market open. There are a series of notables due to report in the pre-market this morning, including More...
The euro hit a four-week low versus the dollar on Tuesday as poor economic data was seen denting hawkish monetary policy sentiment, while the greenback firmed on views that the U.S. rate-cutting cycle could end soon.
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The U.K. CBI distributive trades report crossed the wires at -26, sending the pound over 50 points lower. The reading was over eight times lower than the -3 that was expected. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD has turned cautious into the FOMC. Yesterday, dealers marked the USD down heading into the expected -25bp Fed rate cut (to 2.00%) on Wednesday. Now those losses are being consolidated. Looking beyond the Fed, the April U.S. em More...
The Canadian dollar finished higher versus the U.S. dollar on Monday, helped up by record high oil prices and a growing view that the worst of the credit crisis may be over.
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Morning Report Westpac Institutional Bank Monday April 28, 2008 - 21:27:31 GMT
FX markets were subdued overnight, with traders settling in for the Fed’s rate review on Thursday morning, and no major data to cause them to budge. The US dollar generally lost ground against the other majors, in keeping with a small reversal of the re More...
The dollar fell against a basket of currencies on Monday, breaking a three-day rally, as buyers retreated to the sidelines ahead of key economic data and the Federal's Reserve's policy meeting this week.
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The dollar holds firm across the board despite oil’s earlier surge towards the $120 per barrel mark resulting from strikes in Nigeria and BP’s refinery shutdown. Traders are reluctant to be exposed to shorting the US currency ahead of Wednesday’s FO More...
The intra-day Support at 1.0300 has held, and could possibly lead to a small rally towards 1.0400 (with an outside chance of 1.0471, the Max High for the day). However, if a move above ... More...
In currencies, the USD was slightly softer during the European morning as ECB members continued to stress their concerns over the inflationary outlook. More...
The EUR/USD saw choppy price action during the overnight sessions on the back of an unexpected jump in German consumer confidence and subsequent testimony from various ECB committee members including President Trichet.
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The euro rose versus the dollar on Monday after European Central Bank policymakers continued to warn of upside inflation risks even as data showed consumer prices falling in five German states in April. More...
It may be strange to be worrying about where the next bubble may come from when we are not yet in the clear from the latest one, which is still unwinding in credit markets. But that is exactly what is causing concern amongst some commentators More...
Market Sentiment for the USD has turned negative early on Monday heading into an expected -25bp Fed rate cut on Wednesday and ahead of the April U.S. employment report on Friday. Many overseas markets will be closed Thursday for May Day and as a result, p More...
With the New Zealand economy set for a sharp slowdown this year, owing at least as much to domestic factors as to the turmoil offshore, the NZD is likely to lag among the major currencies. NZ interest rates now have the steepest implied easing track among More...
Dollar Reality FX Solutions Sunday April 27, 2008 - 20:11:45 GMT
Forex market sentiment around the USD has taken a major swing in a positive direction in the latest week. Behind the turn in sentiment has been a nearly universal concern about mounting inflationary pressures. Also in the U.S., there is a growing percepti More...
The Velocity Of Money Thoughts from the Frontline Saturday April 26, 2008 - 10:44:36 GMT
The late and great Milton Friedman told us that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. But there is an asterisk to his equation that we need to examine, namely, the velocity of money. More...
The Canadian dollar closed slightly lower versus the U.S. dollar on Friday in a lackluster session that capped a losing week in which weak retail sales data and a Bank of Canada rate cut rattled the currency. More...
The dollar headed for its best monthly performance in 2-1/2 years against a basket of major currencies on Friday, boosted by a growing view that the Federal Reserve may stop cutting interest rates. More...
After EUR-USD had passed 1.59 for the first time in mid-March, it was just a matter of time before it hit 1.60. In the last fortnight, the European currency has been inching nearer and nearer to that level, and on Tuesday, it finally managed to breach 1.6 More...
(CEP News) - The U.S. dollar has retraced sharply on Friday morning after a downward revision to consumer sentiment and sharp reversals in oil and gold prices. Fixed income markets remained lower due to selling in the overnight while stocks turned negativ More...
(08:13 04/25) (CEP News) Frankfurt - According to data from the European Central Bank, M3 money supply grew 10.3% on an annual basis in March, down from the previous month’s rise of 11.3% and lower than the consensus estimate of a 10.6% growth rate.
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(CEP News) - North American fixed income markets are declining and equities are up with yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes up 3.6 bps to 3.86% and Canadian 10-year CGBs up 3.4 bps to 3.75%. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average are trading up 68 More...
06:48 04/25 (CEP News) – Friday's economic releases consist of the final consumer sentiment report from Reuters and the University of Michigan, along with Canadian M1 Money supply and comments from Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez, Head of the Bank of Spa More...
In currencies the Euro continued its soft tone that accelerated with the release of German IFO data on Thursday. Technical factors added to USD momentum as the post G7 summit low of 1.5630 was violated during the European morning. European data also contr More...
The dollar headed for its best monthly performance in 2-1/2 years against a basket of major currencies and rose further from this week's record lows versus the euro, boosted by improved sentiment on the U.S. economy.
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The Pound jumped over 150 basis points when Q1 GDP printed inline at 0.4%, despite the annualized rate falling to 2.5% from 2.8% - showing the economy grew at its slowest rate in three years. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD has remained upbeat heading into trade Friday in N.Y. Support continues to come from a growing market perception that U.S. interest rates are in sight of their cyclical lows. U.K. GDP was weaker than expected.
The USD is tra More...
The U.S. dollar rose across the board on Thursday after U.S. government data showed resilience in the labor market, while a key measure of business sentiment in Germany plunged undermining the euro.
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(16:59 04/24) (CEP News) – The U.S. dollar had its best day in a month on Thursday as it gained against most major currencies including the euro, which fell 1.3%. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD continued to improve on Thursday. The unit got a major boost from the release of weaker than expected German Ifo data. Further support came from a WSJ article written by Greg Ip that suggested that the FOMC next week may cut r More...
Euro/dollar at 1.60 after G7 met April 11 and issued its first remarks directed at major currency misalignment since September 2000 and surely the market is wrong…well that is what Juncker and Trichet would have us believe this week as the two cried eur More...
09:06 04/24 (CEP News) – As the overhang of new homes sits at a 27-year high of 9.8 months, new home sales are expected to fall for a fifth consecutive month in the March index from the U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday. More...
08:34 04/24 (CEP News) – First-time claims for jobless benefits in the United States fell to 342k following a 17k rise last week, while continuing claims fell to 2934k, lower than expectations, the Department of Labor reported Thursday. More...
08:59 04/24 (CEP News) - North American fixed income and equity markets are down with yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes up 4.7 bps to 3.78% and Canadian 10-year CGBs up 2.6 bps to 3.69%. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average are trading down 9 p More...
07:22 04/24 (CEP News) - The Bank of Canada's monetary policy report will top the Canadian economic releases on Thursday as U.S. markets brace for durable goods orders, jobless claims and new home sales. Europeans will also receive comments from a myriad More...
The euro slid further from this week's record high versus the dollar on Thursday after the biggest monthly fall in German business sentiment since September 2001 dented confidence in the euro zone economy. More...
The German IFO Institute reported the first drop in business confidence in four months. The gauge saw declines in all three components with the business climate index falling to 102.4 from 104.8; More...
Market Sentiment for the USD has continued to improve on Thursday. The unit today has gotten a major boost from the release of weaker than expected German Ifo data.
The USD is trading considerably higher vs. the EUR from late Wednesday. The GBP has ease More...
The Canadian dollar closed at its lowest level versus the U.S. dollar in just over a week on Wednesday after data released early in the day showed an unexpected drop in February retail sales.
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Market Sentiment for the USD improved over the day on Wednesday, but it still could be at risk to the downside. Early in the N.Y. session dealers cited a number of orders to sell the EUR/USD by long-term hedgers as they sought to start to take advantage o More...
Morning Report Westpac Institutional Bank Wednesday April 23, 2008 - 20:44:48 GMT
With the New Zealand economy set for a sharp slowdown this year, owing at least as much to domestic factors as to the turmoil offshore, the NZD is likely to lag among the major currencies. However, More...
The euro had its biggest drop against the U.S. dollar in three weeks on Wednesday as soft economic data and comment from European policy-makers indicated the weaker U.S. currency is hurting euro zone economic growth.
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Next week the Fed meets to set policy and a quarter point rate cut is baked into the cake. But there is some uncertainty over what the Fed will say in its statement. Well there is less uncertainty than a week ago as the reversal in the curve steepener t More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Wednesday April 23, 2008 - 17:09:13 GMT
The dollar was exhibiting broad-based strength throughout the New York morning. Verbal intervention near the 1.60 level from various German names provided a pause to the overall trend of dollar weakness. More...
This morning, for our Currency Currents Members, we delved upon the divergence between gold and the U.S. dollar. Ultimately, we feel this relationship could prove crucial to ... More...
(CEP News) - North American fixed income markets and equities are mixed with yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes up 1.7 bps to 3.71% and Canadian 10-year CGBs down 1.0 bps to 3.64%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading down 0.65 points to 12719.5 More...
(CEP News) - European equity markets are trading lower with the Eurostoxx losing 30.92 points on the day. In Germany, the bund was up 29.0 ticks to 114.05 with yields down 2.3 bps to 4.13% while the 10-year gilt was up 28.0 ticks to 108.60 with yields dow More...
07:03 04/23 (CEP News) – Retail sales and comments from Finance Minister Jim Flaherty will top the Canadian economic data for Wednesday while the United States will release weekly oil inventories. Europeans will also be paying attention to the Norwegian More...
On the data front overnight French consumer spending declined to -1.7% m/m in February, its lowest level since September of 2006. Preliminary French manufacturing and services PMI reading for April fell below estimates, while German readings were mixed, w More...
Market Sentiment for the USD has marginally improved on Wednesday, but it still appears to be at risk to the downside. EUR/USD demand consistently seems to resurface on price breaks. On the other hand, Strong resistance at the 1.60 line set up the battle More...
The euro retreated from a record high set the previous session versus the dollar on Wednesday after a European Central Bank policymaker toned down earlier hawkish comments on interest rates. More...
The Australian Dollar has shot up today after the Australian CPI was released today, showing a rise of 1.3% against an expectation of 1.1%. It is currently trading near 0.9509, just above the Feb-08.. More...
The Canadian dollar rallied from an early trough on Tuesday, thanks to record high oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar, but it was not enough to erase the slide recorded after the Bank of Canada cut interest rates. More...
The euro rose against the dollar on Tuesday and traded above $1.60 for the first time since its 1999 inception amid growing expectations that the European Central Bank's next move may be an interest rate hike. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD remained negative, especially vs. the EUR, on Tuesday. Dealers cannot cite any specific catalysts for the recent turn in sentiment, but said that EUR demand consistently seems to resurface on price breaks. Strong resistance at More...
Market Sentiment for the USD remained negative, especially vs. the EUR, on Tuesday. Dealers cannot cite any specific catalysts for the recent turn in sentiment, but said that EUR demand consistently seems to resurface on price breaks. Strong resistance at More...
(CEP News) – The Canadian dollar initially fell three-quarters of a cent following the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut the overnight target rate to 3.00% from 3.50%. But the loonie later pared its losses as market watchers took a second look at the B More...
12:20 04/22 (CEP News) – Australia’s Consumer Price Index measure of inflation is widely expected to have accelerated in the first quarter of 2008, but many economists say the rise will do little to spur central bank action. More...
(12:10 04/22) (CEP News) Ottawa – The Bank of Canada trimmed another 50 basis points from its key overnight lending rate Tuesday, dropping the rate to an even 3% and leaving economists divided over whether the central bank is nearing the end of its easi More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Tuesday April 22, 2008 - 17:06:45 GMT
A second straight day of market declines is adding fuel to concerns of whether the stock market can preserve last week's gains in the face of continued Dollar weakness and surging commodity prices. More...
(CEP News) - North American fixed income markets are mixed and equities are declining with yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes down 1.0 bps to 3.72% and Canadian 10-year CGBs up 1.1 bps to 3.68%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading down 78.00 po More...
(09:29 04/22) (CEP News) London – The Bank of England should not attempt to offset downside shocks to the UK economy and must concentrate on maintaining price stability, Tim Besley, a member of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), said on More...
09:01 04/22 (CEP News) – As record gasoline prices create stronger economic headwinds against U.S. consumers, retail store sales declined in the week ending April 19, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. More...
(09:00 04/22) (CEP News) Ottawa – The Bank of Canada sliced another 50 basis points from its key overnight lending rate Tuesday, bringing the rate down to 3%, its lowest level since October 2005. More...
(08:13 04/22) (CEP News) – A half-point cut from the Bank of Canada is strongly priced into markets, but it’s not a sure thing. Strategists say fixed income and foreign exchange markets are likely to be volatile following Tuesday’s rate decision. More...
(07:36 04/22) (CEP News) - The Bank of Canada's interest rate decision will be the main event of the day when it comes out on Tuesday. In the U.S., the main highlight will be existing home sales data for March. In the UK, meanwhile, Bank of England Moneta More...
Looking ahead, March home sales are due out in the US this morning along with the Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Results from Monday's TAF auction are due out after the open this morning. Ahead of the US data Canadian data will take center stage as the More...
The euro rallied towards recent record highs on Tuesday as surging oil prices and hawkish rhetoric from European Central Bank policymakers overshadowed earlier concerns about the European banking sector. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD has turned negative, especially vs. the EUR, once again on Tuesday. Dealers are citing no specific catalyst for the turn, but say that demand consistently seems to resurface on sharp breaks. Strong resistance just below the 1. More...
The fourth time may be the charm for the Euro which is once again trying to rise above 1.60. There was no major Eurozone economic data released this morning, but rising inflationary pressures has sparked speculation that the next move by the European Cen More...
Morning Report Westpac Institutional Bank Monday April 21, 2008 - 21:09:35 GMT
The relative economic picture argue that the New Zealand dollar should continue to underperform – the economy is now set for a sharp slowdown this year, owing at least as much to domestic factors as to the turmoil offshore, which is likely to be confirm More...
The Canadian dollar closed lower versus the U.S. dollar on Monday as the likelihood of a Bank of Canada rate cut and a dovish bank statement more than offset the benefit of record high oil prices. More...
The U.S. dollar slipped on Monday after unexpectedly weak profits from Bank of America dampened investors' optimism that U.S. financial companies may escape the pinch of the crisis in global credit markets. More...
(CEP News) – The loonie stumbled after attempting to break parity and Canadian government bonds rallied ahead of the Bank of Canada’s rate decision.
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(CEP News) - North American fixed income markets are mixed, as are equities, with yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury Notes flat at 3.71% and Canadian 10-year CGBs down 2.4 bps to 3.67%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading down 55.93 points to 12793.4 More...
(14:13 04/21) (CEP News) Frankfurt - While answering questions after presenting the European Central Bank’s 2007 Annual Report on Monday in Strasbourg, France, ECB Vice-President Lucas Papademos said that the euro’s recent moves are characterized by s More...
(12:50 04/21) (CEP News) – The focus this week will shift back to the Bank of Canada when it announces its interest rate decision on Tuesday. Overnight indexed swaps are now 95% priced in for a 50 basis point cut. In the U.S., there were several Fed spe More...
12:24 04/21 (CEP News) – The Bank of America reported a disappointing set of figures leading to a decline in stocks and U.S. dollar weakness. Oil surged to a new high of $117.60 a barrel after exports from Nigeria were halted. More...
12:21 04/21 (CEP News) – On this light day of North American economic data releases, the Chicago Fed National Activity index signalled a recession has likely begun in the U.S. In Canada, international securities transactions were released and oil contin More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Monday April 21, 2008 - 16:36:20 GMT
In currencies, the dollar is mixed against the majors as commodities continue to be the driving force in the greenback's direction. Overall, the USD's tone was soft except for the GBP. More...
10:55 04/21 (CEP News) – The Bank of America reported a disappointing set of figures but Treasuries continue to sell off even as stocks slip. The Canadian dollar and TSX are up after oil surged to a new high of $117.60 a barrel.
Analysts surveyed by More...
(09:59 04/21) (CEP News) Frankfurt - Speaking at a news conference in Paris announcing record profits for the Bank of France on Monday, French central bank Governor Christian Noyer said that lower interest rates in the U.S. could adversely affect the Fren More...
08:34 04/21 (CEP News) – There is plenty for markets to digest this morning, with the Bank of America reporting disappointing first quarter earnings, crude oil reaching a new high, a European Central Bank official warning of increasing wages and the Ban More...
08:09 04/21 (CEP News) - Canadian securities transactions for February will kick off Monday's economic events. In the U.S., markets will listen to what the Fed's Randall Kroszner and Charles Evans have to say. Furthermore in Europe, ECB Vice-President Luc More...
(06:22 04/21) (CEP News) London – The UK economy is heading for a "rapid and painful adjustment" over the next two fiscal years, according to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, a think-tank that publishes many of its economic forecasts based on the same metho More...
USD-CHF has seen a slip to 1.0101, and even lower in the day. A further slip beyond 1.0080-70 may not be seen in the day, now. A bounce to 1.0140 has already been seen, but the market has again... More...
The dollar fell against a basket of major currencies on Monday, with residual nerves about inflation pressures outweighing the positive spin seen from first quarter banking results last week. More...
In currencies, the commodity markets continued to maintain a firm tone, thus keeping the USD under pressure. The EUR/USD is holding above the 1.5860-level after NYMEX front month crude hit fresh all-time highs at $117.35 during the European morning. T More...
The Pound broke the 2.000 price level during the Asian trading session, despite Rightmove reporting a decline of 0.1% in house prices due to a lack of credit. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD is mixed heading into N.Y. The markets so far have proved unable to build of the better tone of the unit seen on Friday. Today the markets have given a mixed verdict on a BOE funding plan for the U.K. banking industry. Many fe More...
Dealers note that forex market sentiment continues to be driven by the relative strength of the EUR/USD pair. The past week has seen several attempted assaults on the EUR/USD 1.60 level (1.5985 high), but the line has held. European politicians were upset More...
A few weeks ago I asked for readers to send me questions and said I would try and answer them while I was in Switzerland. Some of them were quite good and have given me ideas for whole newsletters but will require a lot of research. More...
The US dollar has rallied significantly against the Japanese Yen and the Euro as risk appetite returns to the market. Since the beginning of the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 600 points, leading many market participants to believe t More...
The dollar climbed to a seven-week peak against the yen and moved further away from a record low versus the euro on Friday after Citigroup's results sparked hope that the worst of the credit crisis has passed.
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U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Friday April 18, 2008 - 17:35:42 GMT
Markets are surging this morning on positive earnings news out of Dow components C, CAT and HON, as well as tech bellwether GOOG. The DJIA is up more than 200 points, above its 200- day EMA for first time since the very beginning of the year, while the Na More...
For almost five years, from the beginning of 2003 until autumn 2007, EUR-GBP remainedvery stable at around 0.68. But the close correlation between euro and pound came to an abrupt end in September 200 More...
(07:11 04/18) (CEP News) - Leading economic indicators and wholesale sales for Canada, along with comments from Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker (non-voter) and Eric Rosengren (non-voter) of the Boston Fed will complete the week's major economic even More...
The dollar hit a one-month high against the yen and pulled further away from a record low versus the euro on Friday after Citigroup surprised investors with earnings that were not as bleak as many had been expecting. More...
The 1.60 figure remained tantalizingly out of reach for euro bulls for yet another day, as many option barriers at that level remained well protected. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD remains mixed heading into N.Y. after a volatile Thursday session. German factory gate inflation (+4.2% yr/yr) today provided further support for the view that the ECB will not be easing policy soon. Some say that absent the g More...
The Euro hit an all time high of 1.5983 against the US dollar following better than expected trade balance numbers. The strength faded quickly however when Eurogroup President Junker told the markets that they “did not correctly understand G7 message on More...
The Canadian dollar closedlower versus the U.S. dollar on Thursday, handing back more than half Wednesday's gains as weak inflation data solidified expectations of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut More...
The dollar posted gains on Thursday, as investors felt more confident about the outlook for the troubled financial sector, with U.S. companies' earnings so far generally revealing no major negative surprises.
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Outlook
The relative economic picture argue that the New Zealand dollar should continue to underperform – the economy is now set for a sharp slowdown this year, owing at least as much to domestic factors as to the turmoil offshore, which is likely to b More...
Market Sentiment for the USD is ending Thursday N.Y. mixed after a volatile session. It appeared that traders were heading into U.S. trading expecting a run at the 1.60 EUR/USD line. However comments by EU President Junker in essence protesting the streng More...
The euro retreated sharply from a record high near $1.60 versus the dollar on Thursday, with profit-taking sped up by comments from Eurogroup Chairman Jean Claude-Juncker speaking out against the single currency's rise. More...
GBP-USD has rallied again during the day and is currently looks to be headed towards 1.9870-80, which is near the upper end of the range of 1.9900 and 1.9600. A rally above the former is not likely to More...
n currencies the EUR/USD eked out a fresh all-time high of 1.5983 but basically consolidated its recent gains throughout the European session as oil and gold maintain their firm tone. Dealers note that good two-way transaction flow continuing at the 1.597 More...
Since yesterday euro bulls have tried to make a run at the 1.60 four separate times but have been repelled each time with the defense of option barriers at that level remaining in tact. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD remains negative heading into Thursday N.Y. trading. The USD is ending down vs. the EUR and GBP against its Wednesday closes. The EUR/USD has just barely made a new record high (1.5983) as it approaches the psychological 1.60 More...
Week after week I have called for the EUR/USD to break 1.60. Today, the currency pair hit an all time high and is inching ever so closer to that target. It will just be a matter of time before that level is broken at which time intervention risk will incr More...
The Canadian dollar shot higher against a weaker U.S. dollar on Wednesday and even came close to hitting parity for the first time in nearly a month, amid lofty commodity prices and rallying equity More...
The dollar plummeted to lifetime lows against the euro on Wednesday, as a steep decline in U.S. home construction and record high euro zone inflation underscored the contrasting growth paths of the two economies.
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Market Sentiment for the USD is ending the day negative after a trying session. The session saw final Eurozone HICP revised up to 3.6% yr/yr after a flash estimate of +.35%. This was a record high for the data and well above the ECB target of below 2.0%. More...
(12:35 04/16) (CEP News) - Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said spillover from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has caused “widespread” impairment of financial markets and that it should serve as a lesson of economic education.
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11:39 04/16 (CEP News) - San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen reiterated previous comments that the economy may contract in the first half of 2008 and that the Federal Reserve must be ready to act in a "firm and timely manner." More...
The euro surged to a record high against an ailing dollar on Wednesday as strong inflation data firmed views that European interest rates will hold steady and as concerns mount on the health of the U.S. economy. More...
Hotter than expected CPI data out of the Eurozone propelled the euro through the 1.5900 level in early European trade as focus returned to inflation which will likely continue to dictate a restrictive monetary policy from the ECB for the time being. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD is on the back foot heading into N.Y. trade today. March final Eurozone HICP was revised up to 3.6% yr/yr from the flash +3.5% estimate a short while ago. This was a record high for the data and well above the ECB target of be More...
he New Zealand dollar spiked higher early in the overnight session, reaching a high just below 0.7950, as the market took out stops around that level. However, from there it was mainly one way traffic as the London market reacted to a negative view on the More...
The Canadian dollar closed flat versus the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in a lackluster session in which the positive impact of record high oil prices was erased by nagging concerns about the U.S. economy.
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Market Sentiment for the USD is ending in N.Y. a bit better as dealers continue to assess the long-term impact of the stronger than expected G7 statement on forex over the weekend. Tuesday saw the rel More...
The dollar posted gains on Tuesday, boosted by surprisingly robust U.S. inflation and manufacturing data, which suggested the Federal Reserve may be less aggressive in cutting interest rates. More...
Global-View: Daily FX Calendar Outlook and Highlights 15 April 2008-Late More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Tuesday April 15, 2008 - 16:38:23 GMT
In currencies, the dollar was mixed as a barrage of data, corporate earnings and central bank speak all managed to influence the short-term direction. More...
After a brief rally during the day, AUD-USD has fallen back down and looks pressurized. Further fall is not ruled out over the next few hours towards 0.9200 or even lower towards 0.9160. More...
In currencies overnight, the GBP was under pressure throughout the European session after the release of RICS House Prices during Asian hours. The -78.5 reading for March was the lowest ever for this data series in its 30 year history. More...
The euro came within half a cent of record highs against the dollar on Tuesday as European policymakers reiterated a hawkish monetary policy stance and jitters on the health of the U.S. economy persisted. More...
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment printed much worse than expected at -40.7 versus forecasts of -33.0 pushing EURUSD back towards the 1.5800 level in early Frankfurt trade, but the unit soon recouped most of its losses as bargain hunters swooped in. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD remains mostly neutral vs. the EUR as dealers continue to assess the long-term impact of the stronger than expected G7 statement on forex over the weekend. Today has seen the release of a considerably weaker than expected Germ More...
The US dollar has strengthened against all of the majors but the degree of strength is marginal considering the changes in the language of the G7 statement and the better than expected retail sales report. The main reason why the dollar did not rally as More...
12 hours is a very long time in FX – after gapping higher across the board in Asia the USD has given back a decent chunk of its gains through European and US dealings. More...
Dollar weakness resumes after a brief interruption following a G7 statement that was largely inconsequential. The G7 communique on foreign exchange omitted its long standing statement urging More...
As Reuters points out below, the G7 agreement to change the language in the communiqué on FX allegedly followed 2 hours of heated discussions to iron out and represented a concession to European officials More...
In currencies, the EUR/USD drifted higher during the European session aided by continued by hawkish ECB inflation talk. Although G7 did amend its wording its forex portion of the communiqué, More...
Dollar-Swiss appears to be ranged sideways between 0.9900-0150 for the next few days. In the bigger picture, while the market trades below 1.0150-0200, there are still chances of an eventual fall More...
Market Sentiment for the USD has improved mainly against the EUR following a stronger than expected G7 statement on forex over the weekend. The main focus of the statement appeared to be on the recent strength of the EUR. On the other hand, many are still More...
After gapping down more than 100 points on Sunday night following the change in the G7 Statement the EURUSD erased most of its losses on the back of some bargain hunting and better than expected EZ Industrial Production data. More...
Without a doubt, the credit crisis has the potential to really set global growth back quite substantially. In its latest Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF sets out how this could happen. And in the latest IMF World Economic Outlook, its revised g More...
The dollar was sharply higher in early Asian trading on Monday after the Group of Seven major industrialised countries surprised speculators by warning against excessive fluctuations in currencies. More...
The G7 statement over the weekend caught the market by surprise, with the most significant change to the wording on currencies in four years. The statement noted that More...
After a quiet start to the week, volatility has returned to the currency market. The moves that we have seen over the past 2 trading days are just a taste of what we expect for the week to come. More...
The Canadian dollar slipped versus the U.S. dollar on Friday and closed lower for the week as nagging concerns about the impact of the U.S. economic
slowdown on Canada weighed on the currency.
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The yen rose broadly on Friday after a fall in quarterly earnings for industrial conglomerate General Electric stoked fears about the health of the U.S. economy, causing investors to dump riskier trades. More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Friday April 11, 2008 - 16:50:46 GMT
In currencies, the market was expecting a subdued tone ahead of the weekend G7 meeting in Washington DC. However, the lower guidance provided by GE sent the USD broadly lower among the majors and instilled a degree of risk aversion back into the carry-rel More...
At 1.5915, EUR-USD just hit a fresh record high this week, only to fall back later during the trading session. Thus the euro failed to reach 1.60 for the third time in four weeks. Resistance is proving to be strong at 1.59, which EUR-USD has been around e More...
Pulling the Bear Stearns thread in March threatened a broad unraveling of the banking system via failed counterparty commitments in spot, futures and derivatives markets that surely would have created chaos in capital markets and sinking asset prices (hig More...
USD-CHF has been volatile during the week. It hit a low of 0.9888 before rallying sharply to a high near 1.0093. It has again come off sharply today once again. More...
The dollar fell broadly on Friday, extending losses after disappointing quarterly results from U.S. industrial conglomerate General Electric fanned worries about the U.S. economy. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD appears to be modestly more negative heading into the weekend Also the EUR is trading up on its JPY and GBP crosses.
The ECB decision to hold rates steady yesterday was no surprise the markets. The main focus following the p More...
Thought I would post a chart on the S&P depending on any reaction - maybe post your comments on the Help Forum and maybe I can be persuaded top do some FX charts in Market Profile More...
Thought I would post 2 charts on the S&P
depending on any reaction - maybe post your comments in the Help Forum then I will spend the time on some FX charts as well More...
The US dollar hit a record low against the Euro this morning and came within striking distance of 100 against the Japanese Yen. However the new round of selling did not last long as the dollar quickly recovered its losses. More...
The Canadian dollar ended afour-session skid with a slight gain against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, but upbeat trade data and comments from the Bank of
Canada could not lift the currency out of More...
The New Zealand and Australian dollars were again sidelined overnight as the action was elsewhere. Stronger than expected Australian employment sent the AUD higher to 0.9340 yesterday afternoon, dragging the NZD back above 0.80 as well. But More...
Market Sentiment for the USD had turned significantly more negative from early in the week through the N.Y. Open. The latest USD slide, especially vs. the EUR appears to have caught many in the markets flat-footed.
Neither the BOE nor the ECB surprised More...
The U.S. dollar surged from record lows against the euro on Thursday as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet expressed concerns over high inflation, sluggish growth and foreign-exchange volatility.
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U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Thursday April 10, 2008 - 17:18:41 GMT
Currencies have been hit by a whirlwind of news, data and decisions with broad implications for increasing FX volatility. Overall, inflation concerns remained the dominant theme ahead of tomorrow's G7 meeting in Washington, DC. More...
The pair has seen a crash of over 280 pips in the last 72 hrs. With the ECB keeping rates on hold and Euro looking bullish and already hitting a high of 1.5913 in the day, the negative correlation ... More...
The euro hit a record high versus the dollar on Thursday on expectations that the European Central Bank will hold interest rates at 4 percent later in the session and signal it is not ready to cut any time soon. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD has turned significantly more negative from early in the week. The latest USD slide, especially vs. the EUR, appears to have caught many in the markets flat-footed. Risk aversion seems back into play amid reports that a U.S. i More...
The currency market has been exceptionally quiet over the past few days with the EUR/USD and USD/JPY confined within a tight trading range. This range however was broken today as the EUR/USD came within 50 pips of its record high. Although there was no me More...
There’s a fair amount of news to keep the market occupied over the next week. Today we have the REINZ house sales report for March – while this is widely expected to be weak, the NZD has been remarkably resistant to weak data recently. We also have More...
The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level in a week versus the greenback on Wednesday as potential fallout from a deteriorating U.S. economic picture dominated sentiment despite record high oil prices. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD turned significantly more negative from earlier in the week Wednesday. The BOJ kept policy steady, as expected, but downgraded its economic outlook. Dealers looking ahead to the ECB and BOE policy decisions on Thursday bought More...
The dollar fell broadly on Wednesday as traders snapped up the euro a day ahead of a European Central Bank policy meeting expected to deliver more tough inflation talk and signals the ECB is not ready to cut interest rates. More...
The Support at 1.9650 mentioned in the morning has held so far and the Pound has moved up to test the Resistance at 1.9735, which is holding for the while. Above 1.9735, the really imporant Resistance More...
Overall the currency market maintained a relatively quiet tone ahead of the European central bank rate decisions on Thursday, and G7 on Friday. The JPY was a touch firmer in pre-European trading after the Asian equities turn turned lower during the last h More...
The dollar weakened broadly on Wednesday as investors contrasted Federal Reserve comments pointing to continued U.S. economic weakness with expectations for further inflation-busting talk from the euro zone. More...
It was a very quiet range bound night of trade as currency markets awaited the dual central bank decisions tomorrow from both the ECB and the BoE. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD has turned more neutral from earlier in the week. The BOJ kept policy steady today, as expected, but downgraded its economic outlook. Many are looking ahead to the G7 on the weekend, but. officials have been sending signals th More...
The Pound crashed to a low near 1.9665 yesterday after a surprisingly bearish Halifax housing data (its biggest fall in 15 years) gave rise to talk of a 50bp rate cut by the Bank of England in .... More...
The dollar found little support from fundamentals Tuesday, but cross market currents helped to keep the currency elevated among the majors. Topping headlines for the day More...
The Canadian dollar ended flat versus the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in a lackluster session during which economic data that showed March housing starts beat estimates had little impact on investor sentiment. More...
The U.S. dollar edged lower versus the euro on Tuesday as minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting showed policy makers felt that a prolonged and severe economic downturn can't be ruled out. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD turned more neutral over the day Tuesday. Nevertheless officials are sending signals that no consensus has been reached that G7 is ready to take action in support of a stronger USD. February Pending Home Sales were weaker than More...
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies on Tuesday amid growing views that a sharp economic downturn in the United States could spread to other countries and prompt their central banks to cut interest rates. More...
In currencies the GBP was the focus in trading on Tuesdays as the March HBOS data yielded speculation that the BOE could take an aggressive stance in lowering rates at Thursday's MPC meeting. More...
The HBOS housing survey in UK showed a much sharper decline than expected sending pound tumbling into the midday European session as speculation mounted that BoE may lower rates by as much as 50bp at the upcoming MPC meeting this Thursday. More...
Market Sentiment for the USD has turned more negative on Tuesday as officials send signals that no consensus has been reached that G7 is ready to take action in support of a stronger USD. February Pending Home Sales are due today. Dealers are also looking More...
The Euro has moved up well after yesterday’s low near 1.5626. It currently trades near 1.5780 and could be headed up towards 1.59. Dollar-Yen has found Resistance at 102.98-88 over Friday-yesterday... More...
The Canadian dollar closed lower against the U.S. dollar on Monday as data showing an unexpected slide in domestic building permits more than offset the positive backdrop of higher commodity prices.
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Morning Report Westpac Institutional Bank Monday April 7, 2008 - 21:08:32 GMT
With quarter-end funding pressures out of the way, and a range of new liquidity measures in place, a relative calm has descended on financial markets, allowing a greater focus on the economic news. This comes at a time when our data ‘surprise’ index i More...
The dollar advanced against the yen and euro on Monday as stabilizing financial markets raised optimism that the worst of the financial crisis might be over, encouraging some investors to buy riskier assets.
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As much as I try I find myself unable to shed my G7 goggles…the goggles that make G7 a powerful and meaningful institution that markets ignore at their own peril. I can’t remember a major turning point in the dollar that did not involve coordinated c More...
Cable is now testing an important Resistance at 1.99 on the 4-hrly (21-SMA) and on the hourly chart (21-SMA). If it holds, a dip towards 1.9800-25 could be seen... More...
Despite poor NFP numbers last Friday, the greenback firmed on the first day of trade this week as investors shrugged off the data and focused instead on the stabilization in the US financial sector More...
The latest UK credit conditions survey from the Bank of England made grim reading. It suggested that credit conditions will tighten even further for UK households and companies in the next three months, after a pronounced tightening in the three months to More...
Market Sentiment for the USD looks cautious to start the new week, in spite the weak employment data on Friday. Odds are that dealers will be letting the performance of the technicals to lead, as the markets seem not be following the lead of the economic More...
The latest UK credit conditions survey from the Bank of England made grim reading. It suggested that credit conditions will tighten even further for UK households and companies in the next three months, after a pronounced tightening in the three months to More...
Sentiment for the USD remained negative on Friday following a weaker-than-expected March U.S. employment report (see NFP chart below). Dealers said that the data confirmed the economic slowdown that the markets are already anticipating. The key open quest More...
There is so much that is happening each and every day as the Continuing Crisis moves slowly into month 8, so much news to follow, so many details that need to be followed up that it can get a little overwhelming. Where to begin? More...
The Canadian dollar closed lower versus the U.S. dollar on Friday as data showed job growth moderated in Canada in March after two solid months, but the currency still ended the week with a More...
The dollar fell on Friday after a report showed the U.S. economy shed jobs for a third straight month, confirming fears that the country may already be in a recession. More...
U.S. equity markets show some resiliency after March nonfarm payrolls and unemployment data miss already soft expectations. March payrolls contracted by more than 80K jobs which was the worst reading in 5 years while the unemployment rate ticked above 5% More...
Foreign exchange markets remained volatile this week. The dollar had weakened at the end of lastweek, and this movement continued at first. USD-JPY dropped below 99 temporarily, whereas EUR-USD neared 1.59 again. Then, however, More...
The dollar fell versus other major currencies on Friday in choppy conditions as investors tried to position themselves ahead of a key U.S. jobs report.
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In currencies, the USD is hovering near sessions lows against the European currencies in subdued trading ahead of the US payroll report. The EUR/USD back above the 1.570- area, while the GBP/USD is testing the 2.0-level. More...
In contrast to most pre-NFP nights when price usually remains subdued, the dollar saw some strong volatility at the start of the European session losing ground against both the euro and the pound More...
Market Sentiment for the USD has remains unstable as orders to sell EUR on its crosses this week have been frustrating those trying to establish USD shorts into the March employment report today.
Street estimates are for a decline in jobs of about -50,0 More...
Could March Non-Farm Payrolls Rebound?
The US dollar has staged a modest recovery over the past week on the relief that there have been no new blowups in the US financial sector. More...
Market Sentiment about the USD has remained volatile again as orders to sell EUR on its crosses early frustrated those trying to establish USD shorts into the March employment report on Friday. Later in the day, offset EUR/USD selling faded. One weight on More...
The New Zealand dollar lost ground against the other major currencies, but was generally sidelined as markets focused on economic news elsewhere. More...
GBP-USD @ 1.9845/50 ...Bernanke bearish, USD Bullish!
R: 1.9835-50
S: 1.9800 / 1.9750
A close above 1.9800 was seen on Cable yesterday and this brought a bullish bias back to bullish More...
The dollar rose broadly on Thursday, hitting a three-week high against the yen, as a recent run of firmer than expected U.S. data suggested interest rates may not need to be slashed as much as previously thought. More...
This was a comment from Paul Kasriel, Chief Economic Guru at Northern Trust:
“The Chinese Shanghai stock market index fell 34% (not annualized) in the first quarter vs. the previous quarter ... More...
The EUR/USD came off its Asian highs after an EU draft report noted that Euro-Zone inflation is likely to moderate later in 2008. The report added that upside risks remain. The French Finance Minister added some expected verbal intervention after she poin More...
Market Sentiment about the USD has recovered again early on Thursday as those trying to establish USD shorts into the March employment report on Friday keep running into demand for the U.S. unit. One weight on the Euro today was the release of weaker than More...
The Canadian dollar jumped to its highest closing level in two weeks versus the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as prices for key Canadian exports such as oil and gold rebounded.
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The dollar fell against most currencies on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy may dip into recession in the first half of 2008, prompting traders to bet the central bank will cut interest rates again. More...
The US dollar has resumed its slide as traders give in to the Fed’s cautiousness. With Wall Street and Main Street both feeling the pain of slower growth and a depressed housing market, More...
The New Zealand dollar made modest gains overnight, as traders moved back into risk-seeking mode for the start of the new quarter. European and Asian equity markets rose, following on from yesterday’s sharp gains in the US, helping to boost the high-yie More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Wednesday April 2, 2008 - 17:23:02 GMT
Fed Chairman Bernanke once again attempted to reassure markets in testimony before Congress this morning, indicating he does not foresee another Bear Stearns situation and emphasizing that the Fed was ready to act if another were to occur under similar ma More...
The Support at 1.9740 has held and the market has moved up during the day. It is currently trading above 1.98. There is an important Resistance at 1.9860. A break beyond 1.9860 would ... More...
LONDON, April 2 (Reuters) - The dollar was little changed on Wednesday, holding gains made the previous session as traders saw news that some struggling financial firms had shored up More...
A relatively quite night of trade in the FX markets as the dollar consolidated its gains of the past several days. The EURUSD bounced back above the 1.5600 level as the sharp sell off of the past several days brought out some bargain hunting euro longs. More...
Market Sentiment about the USD has turned negative early on Wednesday as dealers want to heading into the ADP private employment report before the N.Y. open with short positions. Unfortunately, many have found the report to be an unreliable forecast of th More...
The Euro fell to 1.5562 in the US session yesterday, after having failed to sustain a rise to 1.5897 on Monday. For the while, it has respected the BLUE trendline coming up from Feb-08 on the Daily... More...
The Canadian dollar closed higher versus a rallying U.S. dollar on Tuesday as writedowns by big European banks put North American currencies back in vogue ahead of key data due later this week.
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The first day of trading in the second quarter has been positive for both the US equity market and the US dollar. Investors that have cut back on dollar denominated holdings in the Q1 are jumping back in force with Lehman Brothers raising $4 billion from More...
The dollar vaulted higher on Tuesday after major banks UBS and Lehman Brothers raised a combined $19 billion to shore up their balance sheets, boosting hopes that the worst of Wall Street's problems may be over. More...
There has been a subtle but important shift in FX markets in recent days – currencies are increasingly trading on their own news, and less so as proxies for global growth / risk aversion / etc. That may not mean much for the New Zealand dollar, where th More...
GBP has a sharp swing back in the last couple of hours and as a result EUR-GBP has taken a huge hit, in the last 4-hourly candle. For now GBP is now mixed from bearish earlier... More...
The dollar rose on Tuesday after Swiss bank UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) announced an additional $19 billion of writedowns and Deutsche Bank said it expects to write down a larger than forecast $4 billion in the first quarter, showing that cred More...
A busy night of trade in FX that saw the dollar gain across the board as economic data from Japan to Australia to Germany produced one disappointment after another and sent the buck rallying against all of its major trading partners. More...
Following a Fresh wave of Q1 writedowns announced by several European banking institutions prompted some early Euro selling against the major currency pairs. More...
Market Sentiment about the USD has improve since mid-session Monday in NYC. However, the unit remains potentially at risk to a weak ISM PMI report today and expected poor March employment data at the end of the week.
The USD is firmer vs. the EUR and th More...
The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, bailed out a US bank for the very first time since the Depression and announced that they are willing to swap their safe US Treasuries for risky and dubious mortgage backed securities. More...
The Canadian dollar skidded to its lowest close in a little over two months on Monday given a tumble in oil prices and nagging concerns about what impact a weak U.S. economy will have on Canada. More...
he dollar was headed on Monday for its biggest quarterly loss against the euro in four years after a sharp gain in euro zone prices reinforced the divergent paths of U.S. and European benchmark interest rates. More...
The New Zealand dollar is increasingly coming under fire as the economic outlook softens. The positives of dairy cash, fiscal stimulus and the tight labour market will still provide support for the economy over the year, but a lot of the negatives are con More...
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 48.2 from 44.5 m/m, beating expectations of a reading of 46 or so. Note that a figure below 50 indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity. This moderately less grim snapshot of US manufacturing he More...
See what I wrote this over the weekend as it still stands. How the dollar withstands U.S. news and ends the week will influence sentiment going forwards. GBP weakness has continued. Dilemma for ECB but focus is still on inflation: More...
After the fall to lows of 1.9337 and 1.9361 in the months of Jan-08 and Feb-08 respectively, March-08 saw a reversal, where the pair it a high of 2.0339 before coming off. Importantly .... More...
The euro held firm versus the dollar on Monday after higher-than-forecast euro zone price data reinforced expectations that the inflation-focused European Central Bank will not start cutting rates soon. More...
The USD was mixed during the European morning as it softened against the Euro and CHF, but firmed against the GBP. Continued hawkish comments from ECB members and higher Euro-zone CPI kept the EUR/USD More...
The likelihood of a cut in UK base rates moved up a notch last week after Bank of England (BoE) governor Mervyn King affirmed that the MPC is now more 'predisposed' to lower rates due to the worsening in money market conditions. More...
Start of the week’s trade in FX saw more back and fill price action as traders braced for a slew of US economic reports culminating in the all important release of Non-Farm Payrolls this Friday. More...
Market Sentiment appears to be cautiously bearish to start the new week. Traders are already setting up for what is expected to be a weak March employment report on Friday. Today has seen the release of a greater than expected increase on Eurozone HICP, w More...
The Euro trades strong near 1.5815 and could move up to test 1.59 this week. $-Yen hovers near 100, currently trading near 99.90 and could be ranged sideways this week.Dollar-Swiss trades below... More...
Existing home sales rose by 2.9% in February, the first significant rise in home sales since the housing market started to decline last year. I was in my car and listening to CNBC as commentators started to celebrate the bottom of the housing market. More...
We have seen some big moves in the currency market this past week, but these fluctuations should pale in comparison to the action that we expect to see next week. Not only are there a lot of economic data due for release from countries around the world, b More...
The dollar fell against the yen on Friday as investors worried that the credit crisis that has fractured the U.S. financial sector was far from over, pushing stocks lower. More...
The Canadian dollar ended lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday as commodity prices fell and worries persisted about the health of the U.S. economy and the potential for spillover effects on Canada. More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Friday March 28, 2008 - 16:48:24 GMT
U.S. equity markets opened modestly higher, but indices are struggling to build momentum as distinct weakness can still be seen in many of the major U.S.financial institutions. More...
The financial market crisis escalated again at the beginning of the Easter week when Bear Stearns had to be rescued. Equity markets suffered heavy losses and credit spreads widened again substantially, pushing the US dollar down to new lows. More...
GBP-USD has been very choppy this week so far, which was again highlighted yesterday. It hit a high of 2.0195 before falling sharply. It currently is ranged within 2.0200 and 1.9800, which is likely.. More...
Another seesaw night of price action in the currency market with many of the majors reversing direction in European trade from the initial moves made in Asia session. More...
The euro rose towards record highs versus the dollar on Friday after inflation-focused comments from a euro zone policymaker reinforced the view that European Central Bank is unlikely to cut rates any time soon. More...
Market Sentiment remains cautious early on Friday. The USD might need to consolidate its substantial declines in the wake of a number of weak U.S. economic reports recently. Dealers rarely have big ideas into the weekend.
The USD is steady vs. the EUR a More...
US Equities fell nearly another 1.0% yesterday, the bellwether Dow Jones closing lower by 120.40 points at 12302.46. NASDAQ was under greater pressure, and it shed about 43.53 points, to close at 2280 More...
According to an article in the UK Times, Nationwide, the country’s second largest mortgage lender is planning to turn away business. We wonder why a mortgage lender would resort to this unless More...
The Canadian dollar was almost unchanged against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as ongoing concerns about the economy of Canada's biggest trading partner kept it from riding robust commodity prices higher.
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The New Zealand dollar was whipped around as the US dollar attempted a rebound, but held above 0.80 overnight. A slightly more positive tone to the US data helped the USD higher, but rumours of investment bank Lehmans filing for bankruptcy protection (lat More...
Market Sentiment remained cautious most of the day on Thursday. Some feel that the USD needed to consolidate its substantial declines in the wake of a number of weak U.S. economic reports recently. The releases of final U.S. 4Q07 GDP and weekly initial jo More...
GBP-USD has had a sharp rally during the day and with that it has moved above its 200-Day MA of 2.0145. The pair is currently below its Resistance of 2.0220, which is likely to see selling... More...
The dollar rose versus the euro on Thursday, but was still heading for the worst quarterly performance since late 2004 as investors weighed economic resilience in the euro zone against a sharp U.S. slowdown.
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The USD opened the European session on a firmer tone after ECB's Trichet reiterated his concern over excessive forex moves and stated that he notes with great interest in US's strong dollar stance. The EUR/USD drifted to 1.5725 from 1.58 in the aftermath More...
After a wave of profit taking in early European session that was triggered by technical rather than fundamental concerns, the EURUSD recovered most of its losses and was once again trading above 1.5800 level by the North American open. More...
Market Sentiment looks to have turned cautious on Thursday following the recent return of USD weakness in the wake of a number of weak U.S. economic reports. Today will see the release of final U.S. 4Q07 GDP and weekly initial jobless claims.
The USD is More...
Euro rallied to a high of 1.5861 yesterday, after the better than expected German IFO number, which was identified as a risky data, which could have triggered a sharp move. Euro is now targeting.... More...
The Euro broke 1.58 against the US dollar today, leaving many traders wondering whether the next stop will be 1.60. Economic data out of the Eurozone continues to beat expectations while data from the US consistently falls short. More...
The Canadian dollar slid lower against the U.S. dollar as investors were loath to bet on the currency, given Canada's heavy dependency on the waning U.S. economy. More...
The US dollar fell for a second day against the other major currencies, though the moves were probably exaggerated by some large flows going through. More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Wednesday March 26, 2008 - 16:26:30 GMT
A negative tone was set for U.S. equity markets after yesterday's close when the WSJ reported the CCU -16% deal was falling apart. The news that one of the bellwether LBO deals was having trouble getting financing brought talk of the credit crunch back in More...
After the sharp rally yesterday, GBP-USD has fallen sharply today after hitting a high of 2.0113. The pair is currently trying to from a range to trade within ... More...
The USD was dramatically mixed during the European morning as data and central bank speak pulled the USD in different directions. The USD was softer against the Euro following the German IFO data and increased after hawkish comments from the ECB's Trichet More...
FOREX-Euro rallies as data clouds rate cut outlook
Wed Mar 26, 2008 7:34am EDT
(Changes byline, updates prices, adds quotes)
By Simon Falush
LONDON, March 26 (Reuters) - The euro rallied against the dollar on Wednesday after strong European econ More...
Unclear how representative the IFO data are of the EZ as a whole, but the pattern over the past three months in Germany is unmistakable. Climate and Conditions are best in seven months (August 2007). More...
The IFO survey of business sentiment printed a much stronger 104.8 versus expectations of 103.5 helping to rally the EURUSD more than 100 points in a matter of minutes as euro shorts betting on a slowdown in the EZ economy were forced to cover their posit More...
The USD is trading down sharply vs. the EUR and GBP from late Tuesday levels and from the European open today.
Much stronger than expected German IFO data and hawkish testimony by ECB President Trichet to the European Parliament have seen the EUR/USD le More...
The sell-off in the US dollar resumed sooner than we had initially anticipated on the heels of surprisingly weak economic data. Consumer confidence slipped to 5 year lows as house prices tumbled more than 10 percent. More...
I get all sorts of questions from traders and the press in a given day and the one I heard once again is will the USD become the funding currency for the carry trade, More...
The Canadian dollar eked out a tiny gain against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, but fears of a spillover from the U.S. economic slowdown kept it from gaining more traction after domestic retail sales data came in above market expectations. More...
The USD is closing down sharply vs. the EUR and GBP from late Monday levels in N.Y. Activity started to return to near normal levels Tuesday following the long four-day Easter holiday in key several key centers. The price action in part was mainly correct More...
Morning Report Westpac Institutional Bank Tuesday March 25, 2008 - 19:51:45 GMT
The New Zealand dollar was one of the strongest performers against the US dollar overnight, in spite of a sharp fall in consumer confidence. More...
USD down sharply
BoE will follow the ECB, but not the Fed More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Tuesday March 25, 2008 - 16:25:17 GMT
Indices give back some of yesterday's gains after cautious analyst commentary regarding financials and an unsurprisingly disappointing consumer confidence reading. The JP Morgan analyst through some cold water on More...
USD-CHF @ 1.0090/96....Watch Support at 1.0090
R: 1.0140 / 1.0180 / 1.0240
S: 1.0090 / 1.0071 / 1.0030
USD-CHF has fallen during the day and the pair currently is just above its important... More...
The USD consolidated losses that occurred during the Asian session. There was dealer chatter circulating that strong Euro demand from Far East sovereign wealth funds helped to push the EUR/USD towards the 1.56-level. More...
After a quiet holiday week-end traders returned to the currency market emboldened to take on more risk by plowing into the high yielders as equity markets across the globe recorded triple digit gains in the wake of JPM’s announcement that it will quintu More...
The USD is down sharply vs. the EUR and GBP from late Monday levels. Easter Monday trade had been restrained due to holidays in many key centers. Activity should return to near normal levels starting today. Some are wondering if today’s price action is More...
With existing home sales rebounding in the month of February and European markets still closed for Easter Monday, the US dollar recovered against the Euro and the Japanese Yen More...
The Canadian dollar rose on the back of a modest bounce in commodity prices and an economic
report out of the United States that suggested a bottom to the U.S. housing crisis may be in sight. More...
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies on Monday after a surprise jump in U.S. existing home sales gave optimism over the economic outlook a small boost, as an enhanced offer for Bear Stearns buoyed stocks and risk appetite.
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The USD is up vs. the EUR and down slightly vs. the GBP from Friday levels. Easter Monday trade was restrained due to holidays in many key centers . The better U.S. momentum from late last week carried forward into Monday. The carry trade financing curren More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Monday March 24, 2008 - 16:37:31 GMT
The USD was mixed throughout the US morning in thin, choppy trading session, but managed to regain some additional momentum during the latter portion of the morning. The USD was broadly firmer against the carry-related pairs of CHF and JPY as a sense of c More...
GBP-USD hit a high of 2.0276 last Tuesday, before closing with substantial losses in the week and has seen some follow-through selling in the early Asian session today. More...
According to the NY Times JP Morgan is in talks to raise its bid for Bear Stearns to $10/share. The renegotiation could raise the offer to more than $1B. The sweetened offer is intended to win over shareholders More...
The dollar strengthened broadly on Monday, extending gains into a fourth session as investors unwound large bets in commodities to square up positions across a range of asset classes ahead of the end of the first quarter.
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Another very quiet night in the currency market as Easter holidays continue in Europe leaving both UK and EZ calendars essentially empty. The dollar however, received a modest boost against the Swiss franc on announcement More...
Markets around the globe were closed for Good Friday which led to zero volatility in currencies. After a week of wild swings, the quiet trading gives everyone an opportunity to think about what could impact the US dollar in the week ahead. More...
First, let's look at a few paragraphs from the Outside the Box last Monday. It was my reaction to the Bear Stearns sale facilitated by the Fed. More...
Deleveraging has become the new buzz-word in the financial markets. At this juncture, it is not clear whether this was a coordinated policy decision by the central banks or if it was just the product of the latest phase of the post-sub-prime period. Major More...
With two thirds of the FX dealing world closed for Good Friday holiday, currencies spent a very quiet night of trade reacting primarily to better equity flows out of Japan which saw the Nikkei rise by 222 points. More...
The Canadian dollar fell nearly 1 percent against a broadly stronger U.S. dollar on Thursday, heading into the Easter holiday weekend, as influential commodity prices continued to slide. More...
What is the MPC to make of what is going on? It has seen a widening of interbank interest rate spreads in the last month, increased volatility in equity and foreign exchange rate markets and rising More...
The U.S. dollar is likely to gain more ground next week as investors further unwind positions in commodities after pulling oil and gold prices off recent record highs as they reduced risky positions built on borrowed money.
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USD-CHF has had sharp fall during the day and we entered a Long at 1.0046, which met its take profit at 1.0100. The pair is currently near its important Resistance of 1.0157-60, which may... More...
The sharp pullback in oil and gold markets has aided the USD in its recovery from recent all time lows against the Euro and Swiss pairs and 12-year lows against the JPY. FX dealers cite that leverage is being forcibly reduced by various "fund of funds". More...
Ahead of the holiday week-end the EURUSD came under a very heavy bombardment of profit taking as the pair crumbled through the key 1.5500 support level in early European trade. More...
The USD is up substantially the EUR from late Wednesday levels. The GBP is softer, but has just been given a lift by stronger than expected retail sales data. The legacy carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, are weaker vs, the USD.
Ahead of the More...
As we warned in yesterday’s Daily Fundamentals, dollar weakness is not over. However that statement is only true for the US dollar against the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and to some degree the Euro. This is because the US dollar actually strengthened aga More...
The Canadian dollar plunged 2 percent against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as commodity prices dropped and the focus of the market moved back to deteriorating global economic growth.
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The USD closing modestly higher vs. the EUR against late Tuesday levels and well above its lows of the day. The GBP ending sharply weaker, suggesting that some EUR demand may be coming out of sterling. The session saw unfounded rumors of problems at one o More...
The dollar weakened broadly on Wednesday and the yen rallied as worries about the global financial sector snuffed out a brief boost to risk appetite inspired by the Federal Reserve's 75 basis point rate cut. More...
USD-CHF has been very choppy in the last few days, and now there is a consolidation underway. The market may trade within 1.0157 and 0.9800 in the next few days. The day-to-day moves are likely to be More...
The European fixed income futures opened lower in the session following comments from the ECB's Weber published in the Handelsblatt Newspaper late yesterday. Weber reiterated the ECB mantra that price stability is the Central Bank's number one priority. B More...
Shares of UK mortgage lender HBOS plummeted more than 18% in early London trade on rumors that the company approached the BoE for emergency funding. More...
The USD opening sharply weaker vs. the EUR against late Tuesday levels. The GBP is weaker, suggesting that EUR demand may be coming out of sterling. The session has seen unfounded rumors of problems at one of the clearers and possible issues at a hedge fu More...
The Canadian dollarstrengthened against the greenback on Tuesday, after the U.S.
Federal Reserve cut interest rates less than expected and a domestic inflation report was seen leaving More...
The dollar posted its largest single-day gain against the yen in nine years on Tuesday and rallied against the euro after the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark U.S. interest rate by a less-than-expected 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.
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The dollar eased back towards the previous day's record lows versus the euro on Tuesday on expectations of a hefty Federal Reserve rate cut that will make the U.S. currency the second lowest yielder in the G10.
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A sense of relative calm returned to the currency markets after yesterday’s upside reversal in the DJIA helped soothe investors nerves, leading to recoveries in Nikkei, Footsie and the DAX. More...
In currencies recent verbal intervention has helped to slow the USD recent decline as it consolidates ahead of some key earnings reports by US financial firms More...
The USD is opening weaker vs. the EUR and. the GBP against late Monday levels. The carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, are steady to weaker.
U.K. Inflation data were softer than expected. Today sees Canadian inflation data and a full calendar More...
Last week, we warned that the Federal Reserve is on high alert and now, we understand why. Pandemonium has hit the financial markets as the US dollar trades below parity against the Swiss Franc for the first time ever, hits a record low against the Euro a More...
The Canadian dollar fell onMonday, dropping briefly below parity with the U.S. dollar for the first time since Feb. 25, dragged down by credit market woes, along with lower oil and base metal prices.
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The New Zealand dollar traded lower through the Monday night session,,m,as European and US investors digested the news from the Asian session – Fed discount rate cut and JP Morgan-Chase takeover of Bear Stearns. More...
The U.S. dollar tumbled to a 12-1/2 year low against the Japanese yen on Monday, and also saw record lows against the euro and the Swiss franc, as emergency liquidity-boosting measures by the Federal Reserve over the weekend failed to ease worries about t More...
The USD is closing weaker vs. the EUR and higher vs. the GBP against late Friday levels. The carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, are up strongly.
The focus of activity starting with the Asian open Friday was on risk aversion plays following t More...
Global-View: Daily FX Calendar Outlook and Highlights- 17 March 2008-Late More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Monday March 17, 2008 - 16:13:45 GMT
ndices attempt to stabilize following the open of trade in New York which saw both the S&P and NASDAQ make new lows for 2008. Investment banks and most financials remain under pressure after the $2 acquisition of BSC, but overall the action is pretty orde More...
A sustained break below 2.0030 would be negative for GBP-USD and a fall towards 1.9900 would be expected. On the upside the Resistance is at 2.0300-50 and above More...
The dollar plumbed fresh depths across the board on Monday as liquidity-boosting measures launched by the Federal Reserve over the weekend failed to quell worry about the health of the U.S. economy and financial sector. More...
JP Morgan announced overnight that it will acquire Bear Stearns in a stock for stock exchange valuing Bear Stearns at $2/share, with a total value around $240M. Effective immediately, More...
The USD is heading into North American trade sharply weaker vs. the EUR. The GBP is steady from late Friday levels. The carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, are up strongly.
Dealers note today that the focus of activity since the Asian open to More...
Panic liquidation consumed currency trading at the start of the week as the news that Bear Stearns was being sold to JP Morgan Chase for a mere $2/share sent shivers through global capital markets More...
USD weakness has been gathering steam as the fallout from the sub-prime mess seemed to be coming to a head with the Bear Stearns funding problems causing U.S. officials to take drastic action to keep the firm afloat. Officials had no choice in the matter More...
My position is that the recession will be rather long and relatively shallow, and the inevitable recovery will be longer and more drawn out than is typical, resulting in what I call The Muddle Through Economy for a period of several years. I define a Mudd More...
The Canadian dollar endedalmost unchanged against the U.S. dollar after a tumultuous
session on Friday, as the drag of some weaker than expected domestic data was offset by softness in the greenback More...
The dollar fell below 99 yen and hit a record low against the euro after Bear Stearns said a worsening cash position forced the Wall Street firm to secure emergency financing.
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The euro continued its upward trend against the dollar this week, breaching 1.56 – a new record high. The yen also appreciated versus the dollar; on Thursday morning, USD-JPY fell below 100 for the first time since September 1995. More...
There has been no change in directional view in USD-CHF, which continues to be in a long-term downtrend. Now the pair is headed towards 1.0000, which is likely to act as a Support atleast... More...
Eurozone CPI printed higher than expected as food and energy costs continue to rise. The year-over-year headline reading increased to 3.3% from 3.2%, and the core index rose 1.8%. Despite the implications of rising inflation, the Euro continued to sell of More...
European equities had a choppy start to trade, with many traders unconvinced by the S&P's estimates. The USD remains on the defensive. EUR/USD tested 1.5650 before retracing 90 pips. USD/JPY re-approached below the 100 area before More...
The USD is heading into North American trade stronger vs. the EUR and GBP from late Thursday levels. The carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, are modestly stronger.
Dealers suggest that the USD has stabilized as a precautionary play heading in More...
• Euro Hits a High Above 1.56, SNB Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged
• Australian and Canadian Dollars Scream Higher as Gold Hits $1000 and Oil Hits $111 More...
The Canadian dollar roseagainst a softer U.S. dollar on Thursday, as record high oil and gold prices gave the commodity-linked currency some support, but gains were limited on concerns that the U.S. More...
The USD is heading into Asian trade weaker again vs. the EUR and GBP from late Thursday levels. The carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, are stronger as well.
USD weakness stemmed from risk aversion trades following word late in Asian trade th More...
Early on the eye seemed to have passed for the equity markets as storm clouds built again on re-energized fears in the financial stocks. Futures tumbled overnight after Carlyle Capital failed to reach an accord with lenders suggesting their remaining debt More...
The dollar fell below the psychologically key 100 yen mark for the first time in over a decade on Thursday, as well as plumbing fresh record lows versus the euro, the Swiss francs and a basket of major currencies.
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No End in Sight Black Swan Capital Thursday March 13, 2008 - 12:00:47 GMT
It should be anything but a quiet Thursday. You can almost count on the buck falling another 1% today. But what’s going to be the catalyst this time? Or shall I say ... More...
For the first time since 1995 yen was quoted in double instead of triple digits tonight, as USDJPY slipped below the 100 barrier hitting a low of 99.74 in early European trade.
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USD-CHF slipped to a low of 1.0043 during the day and the big level of 1.0000 continues to be in focus. One would assume that level would be defended vigorously as lots of option triggers could be... More...
The USD is heading into N.Y. trade sharply weaker gain vs. the EUR and GBP from late Wednesday levels. The carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, are stronger as well.
USD weakness has stemmed from risk aversion trades following word late in Asi More...
What makes today’s record breaking day in the EUR/USD particularly unique is the fact that the currency pair is now trading above the psychologically important 1.55 level. More...
The Canadian dollar rode record oil prices to a higher close against a besieged U.S. dollar on Wednesday, but concerns about Canada's reliance on the teetering U.S. economy limited the currency's gains. More...
The dollar plunged to a record low against the euro and a basket of currencies on Wednesday amid uncertainty about the long-term impact of the Federal Reserve's recent efforts to inject money into cash-starved credit markets.
More...
The New Zealand dollar made further gains overnight, reaching one-week highs around 0.8080. The US dollar’s decline resumed as the new liquidity measures announced by the Fed yesterday helped to ease More...
GBP-USD has been firm so far today, after coming off from its highs yesterday. The near term range for the pair is likely to be 2.0200 and 2.0000, before a break higher. We expect this range to hold. More...
A Few Questions Black Swan Capital Wednesday March 12, 2008 - 12:04:23 GMT
Where was Robert Rubin’s great council and wisdom during this ongoing meltdown at Citi?
Is it coincidence the Fed’s major pumping campaign coincided with the potential meltdown of ... More...
The euro raced towards a record high versus the dollar on Wednesday as strong data reinforced a view that the European Central Bank is not rushing to ease monetary policy while U.S. authorities are seen slashing rates.
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After a one day correction EURUSD bounced right back blowing through the 1.5400 figure and zeroed in on the 1.5500 level as better than expected Industrial Production data provided more evidence that EZ economy continues to decouple from the problems in U More...
The Federal Reserve is getting desperate and they are pulling out all of the stops. Minutes after the US trade balance numbers were released this morning, the Fed announced auctions to lend as much as $200 billion in US Treasuries. More...
The Canadian dollar pushed higher against a stronger U.S. dollar on Tuesday, as stock markets, which are being looked to as a barometer for the health of the U.S. economy, rallied on the back of More...
The New Zealand dollar raced higher overnight, as investor risk appetite received a shot in the arm from new liquidity measures announced by several central banks. More...
The dollar posted sharp gains on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve announced new measures to inject liquidity into the financial system, easing concerns about a deepening credit crisis and a U.S. recession. More...
GBP-USD has had a nice upmove during the day and is now trying to stabilize above its 200-Day MA of 2.0131, a close above which would be bullish for the pair. There could be a rally towards 2.0300 More...
The euro surged to an all-time high against a struggling dollar on Tuesday as strong economic data and hawkish talk from European policymakers on inflation reduced expectations of rate cuts from the European Central Bank. More...
The USD is opning lower vs. the EUR and GBP from late Monday levels. The carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, are mixed.
Risk aversion remains the recurring theme. Nevertheless, the USD remains vulnerable heading into trade data this morning i More...
"New Day New High", or "Fresh Day Fresh Low". While "New Day New High" refers to Crude Oil, which hit a fresh all time high at $108.21 yesterday, its 9th in the last 10 days. More...
Since the beginning of the year, one of the best trades in the currency market has been to short US dollars. Although we think that the dollar will continue to fall over the next few months, there is a good chance that it could rally this coming week. More...
The Canadian dollar fell 0.7 percent against the U.S. dollar on Monday as fears that the global economic slowdown will hobble Canada's economy trumped a string of would-be positives for the currency, More...
The New Zealand and Australian dollars fell overnight as currency markets finally began to yield to the flow of worrying news from the realm of credit. More...
The yen and Swiss franc firmed broadly on Monday as U.S. stocks fell on credit-related worries, prompting investors to reduce exposure to risky assets and unwind trades funded by the Japanese and Swiss currencies' low rates. More...
- U.S. equity markets hold close to unchanged but remain heading lower to start the week. Equity futures moved higher ahead of the open when a Goldman Sachs analyst noted he could not rule out the possibility the Fed could cut rates as early as today. Sim More...
GBP-USD had a nice rally last week and is currently trading above its 200-Day MA of 2.0130, which would now become a Support this week. Below that the Support would come in at 2.0000-1.9970 More...
Downside momentum in the USD gathered steam in the latest week as U.S. economic data continued to deteriorate and it appeared that short-term interest rate differentials were likely to continue to widen against the U.S. currency. The latest bout of negati More...
The USD is trading lower vs. the EUR and GBP from late Friday levels. The carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, are stronger as well.
The USD remains vulnerable heading into the new week. The USD unit surprisingly recovered Friday following a w More...
In currencies the USD maintained a relatively quiet tone overnight as it consolidated from Friday''s choppy session. Overall sentiment for the USD remained soft, but the dollar is off its record lows More...
The yen and Swiss franc gained on Monday and the dollar slipped toward record lows as weak U.S. employment data on Friday added to concerns about the health of the world's largest economy and heightened global risk aversion. More...
EURUSD had a difficult time with the 1.5400 level on the first day of trading this week, as the pair met stiff resistance at that barrier despite relatively healthy overnight EZ economic data. More...
Tight money markets and tumbling stocks and the dollar will heighten worries for investors this week as pressure mounts on central banks facing what looks like the third wave of a global credit crisis.
Last week, money markets tightened to levels not s More...
Federal Reserve Is On High Alert
Non-farm payrolls dropped for the second month in a row but interestingly enough, that was not the biggest story of the day. Instead, the Federal Reserve is on high alert, having announced plans to pump 200 billion dolla More...
A job creation drought in the United States has almost guaranteed that the Federal Reserve will push benchmark interest rates down to negative real levels this year in an attempt to regenerate economic growth.
More economists are starting to expect the More...
Road Runner just turned the corner on the mountain road and Wylie Coyote did not make it…credit markets are in free fall. It is no longer simply subprime or auction rate securities that are collapsing. More...
Fed increases TAF liquidity provisions
USD/JPY near 1995 levels
U.S. jobs -ve; Canadian jobs +ve More...
Bingo! Black Swan Capital Friday March 7, 2008 - 13:23:27 GMT
"In today's world, where investors can move their funds instantly from one currency to another to avoid depreciation, the price central bankers pay for inflation is much higher than in the past."
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AUD-USD had a sharp fall yesterday and then has recovered back today. The pair is currently staying within its 0.9400 and 0.9220 range, which is likely to continue today as well.
More...
A typically quiet night of pre-NFP action with only the USDJPY making newsworthy moves as the pair broke the 102.00 figure knocking out one touch options at that barrier. After coming close several times during the night USDJPY finally traded below 102.00 More...
The dollar sunk to new record lows versus the euro and Swiss franc and fell to a three-year low against the yen as U.S. recession fears and expected hefty Fed rate cuts led investors to bail out of the currency.
While U.S. rates are seen as falling by More...
The USD is trading lower vs. the EUR and GBP from late Thursday levels heading into the February Employment data. The EUR/USD and other units have already been making new recent and all-time highs. The carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, are st More...
TOKYO, March 7 (Reuters) - Japan's official foreign reserves
amounted to $1.008 trillion at -currency not found- the end of
February, the Ministry of Finance said on Friday. [JPRES=ECI]
More...
The US dollar has fallen to a record low against the Euro and there are at least 5 reasons why the weakness will continue. The first is the most immediate, which is tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. Although the market is looking for a rebound in job More...
The USD is trading significantly lower vs.the EUR and GBP from late Wednesday levels. The EUR/USD and other units made new highs. The primary carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, are substantially stronger as well. Dealers appear to be setting U More...
- Indices remain under pressure with money continuing to come out of the financials as decliners lead advancers by a 3:1 margin on the NYSE. The XLF approached its lows for the year led by weakness MER -6% which was forced to change the conversion rate on More...
GBP-USD has been relatively firm during the day ahead of the important BOE decision. The expectation is that rates would be kept on hold at 5.25%. The pair is currently trading just below More...
Dollar hit new lows in early European trade today with EURUSD reaching 153.45 after rumors of Chinese CB selling swept the market. The diversification away from the dollar has been a slow but ongoing process amongst many of the world’s central banks, b More...
The dollar hit lifetime lows versus the euro on Thursday beyond $1.53, with investors looking to the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and news conference later for fresh signals on monetary policy.
While the ECB is seen holding interest r More...
Oil hit a record high above $105
on Thursday as a weak dollar helped prices to extend the
previous day's gains, which were prompted by a drop in U.S. oil
inventories and OPEC's decision to keep output unchanged. U.S. light crude for April delivery CLc1 More...
The USD is trading significantly vs. EUR and GBP from late Wednesday levels. The EUR/USD has made another new record high. The primary carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, are substantially stronger as well. Dealers appear to be setting USD shor More...
The GBPJPY is once again a top candidate for a short-term hedge position to protect profitable trades behind the long-term, dominate trend from small, counter-trend moves that have developed over the past few days. Once again, risk appetite is having its More...
GBP-USD: Today the initial Resistance would come in at 1.9820. Above that the Resistance would come in at 1.9863, the projected Max High for the day. On the downside the Support is at 1.9760 More...
Very whippy night in the currency markets, marked by contradictory data which created wide trading ranges hurting both longs and shorts in the process. In UK today the news started on the downside as Nationwide consumer confidence data plunged to its low More...
The dollar gained ground against the euro and a basket of major rival currencies on Wednesday, but was still close to record lows ahead of data that could again derail sentiment about the world's biggest economy.
Weak readings from the Institute for Su More...
The USD opening Wednesday higher vs. EUR and GBP from late Tuesday levels. The carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, are now easier. Dealers have been noting an unwind of carry trades of all this week to include the high yielding currencies, comm More...
Dark clouds hung over the US dollar as the currency consolidated losses against most of the major currencies. Indeed, the euro held near the 1.52 level for much of the day after hitting an all-time high of 1.5275 yesterday. Meanwhile, the yen gained in th More...
The USD closing Tuesday about steady vs. EUR and GBP from late Monday levels. The carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, remain bid but are now about steady. Dealers noted an unwind of carry trades of all sorts.
Commodity currencies (AUD and NZD More...
- U.S. Indices maintain a downward trajectory with financials and tech still leading the way. Rumors of write downs both here and abroad continue to circulate while the Dubai International CEO said he expects another capital injection for Citigroup in ord More...
OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-half of one percentage point to 3 1/2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly lowered, and the Bank Rate is now 3 3/4 More...
GBP-USD continues to be stuck within the 1.9970 – 1.9760 range currently, and levels towards the extremes of the range could be used be used to trade. More...
In a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” move, the Australian Dollar dropped by nearly 100 points in Asian and early European trade after the Reserve Bank of Australia increased its short term lending rates by another 25bp to 7.25%. The Aussie is n More...
Worried euro zone policymakers pressured on Washington on Tuesday to do more to halt the dollar's decline, a day after the U.S. currency hit a record low against Europe's single currency.
Guy Quaden, Belgium's representative at the European Central Ban More...
The USD is opening about steady vs. EUR and GBP from late Monday levels. The carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, remain bid.
Commodity currencies (AUD and NZD) are sharply weaker vs. the USD. The RBA hiked is Cash Rate by +25bps to 7.25% as e More...
It is no secret that the US dollar is weak especially since it has fallen to a new record low against the Euro and a 3 year low against the Japanese Yen today. However the EURUSD’s intraday correction has many traders wondering whether they should stay More...
The EUR is ending about steady vs. the USD from late Friday levels. The GBP has eased. The carry trade financing currencies, CHF and JPY, remain stronger. The strength of the JPY weighed heavily on the Nikkei earlier on Monday.
Commodity currencies (AUD More...
GVI Bank of Canada Policy Meeting Preview
Decision: March 4 at 14:00 GMT.
BOC Overnight Target Rate: 4.00%
Expected Decision: Odds favor another -25bp rate cut. The latest policy statement and BOC comments suggest that further cuts are in the pipelin More...
- Some comments from European officials helped to take the USD off its all-time lows against the Euro and the Swiss Franc pairs. EU''s Juncker made the strongest statement that he was increasingly concerned about strong Euro levels. EUR/USD tested 1.5275 More...
· ECB Liebscher: Oil price is critical to ECB monetary policy || Firmer Euro has dampened oil price rise || Recent commodity moves are staggering
· IMF Struss Kahn: Current economic slowdown may lead to lower oil prices || Euro is overvalued, CNY and More...
Japanese and Australian Itraxx credit default swap indices moved to new record highs, hurting Asian financials and boosting risk aversion among investors. USD/JPY declined from 103.80 to 103.00, and traders heard rumors of Japanese quasi-governmental enti More...
FX Blog- Trade the News Staff Monday March 3, 2008 - 13:33:48 GMT
Japanese and Australian Itraxx credit default swap indices moved to new record highs, hurting Asian financials and boosting risk aversion among investors. USD/JPY declined from 103.80 to 103.00, and traders heard rumors of Japanese quasi-governmental enti More...
AUD-USD had a very sharp fall on Friday and gave up a major part of the gain,which it had seen earlier last week. Fridy’s fall in the pair has continued today as well, in what is a very important week More...
The dollar plumbed a record low against a basket of rival currencies for the fifth trading day in a row on Monday, weighed by concerns about U.S. economic health, while the yen rallied on rising risk aversion.
The move saw the dollar set historic lows More...
As the week opened for trade risk aversion wreaked havoc with equity markets driving the Nikkei down 610 points while USDJPY dropped below the 103.00 figure.
As the week opened for trade risk aversio More...
The EUR and GBP are about steady vs. the USD from late Friday levels. The carry trade financing currencies CHF and JPY are stronger. The strength of he JPY weighed heavily on the Nikkei today.
Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are mixed vs. the US More...
Sentiment for the USD has decidedly negative tone in the latest week. One catalyst for the latest bout of negativity was testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke on Wednesday and Thursday of the latest week. Bernanke reinforced market expectations for a rat More...
The first week of March. A data intensive week, peppered with 5 Central Bank meetings (Australia, Canada, UK, EU and Japan) and ending with the US NFP on Friday.Australia is expected to increase rate. More...
The dollar fell to record lows against the euro and a basket of currencies for a fourth straight day on Friday as yet another set of dour U.S. economic data left traders betting on an aggressive Feder More...
Dow -208 S&P -23.4 NASDAQ 39
- Indices slide on continued disappointing economic data and concerns regarding the financial sector. A worrisome Q4 earnings report from AIG got the ball rolling in the wrong direction again. Downgrades in BCS and RBS over More...
AUD-USD has suffered a sharp reversal during the day, after the rally all through the week. The fall in AUD-USD has been lead by the fall in AUD-JPY, and carry unwinding. The immediate Support at More...
The dollar hit record lows against the euro, Swiss franc and a basket of major currencies on Friday, pressured by concerns about the U.S. economy and expectations of further aggressive interest rate cuts.
A surprisingly large rise in weekly U.S. jobles More...
Rising for the first time in four months in January, German retails sales rallied the Euro over 50 points pushing it to a new all time high at 1.5238. A strong labor market and retailer discounts inspired shoppers and fueled expectations that consumer spe More...
On Thursday, the USD reacted quite negatively to testimony from Chairman Bernanke. The markets focused in on his comment that bank failures are possible and there was a broad perception that the central bank chief is not concerned about USD weakness.
To More...
The US dollar continued to hit record lows against the euro as Fed Chairman Bernanke remained fixated on fostering economic growth—extending the downside risks for the crumbling dollar. The Chairman r More...
- Equity and Bond markets continue to focus on the plunging U.S Dollar and its relationship to commodity prices around the world. Indices have swooning to new lows late in the morning session as comments from Barnanke''s testimony on the hill hit cross. O More...
There’s so much going on that I don’t even know what to highlight in this Thursday installment of Currency Currents. We’ve got Bernanke on Capital Hill, regulators patting Fannie and Freddie on ... More...
The dollar held near a record low versus the euro on Thursday after weak U.S. data fuelled recession fears and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signalled a readiness to cut interest rates again.
By contrast, the euro found support from comments by More...
EURUSD made itself comfortable at its new home above the 1.5000 level, holding on to the 1.5100 figure for most of the night. The news out of the EZ continued to be constructive as both labor data and Retail PMI numbers demonstrated that the underlying fu More...
Forex markets await the second round of testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke today. Dealers often tend to react negatively to his appearances. The USD fell sharply on Wednesday. It remains to be seen if there will be a reaction again today.
The EUR/USD is More...
Since the dollar marked its unfavorable milestones late in the US session yesterday, traders around the world have jumped in to sell the battered currency. Now at record lows, bulls have quickly lost hope in a possible rebound from an overextended greenba More...
The dollar dropped to all-time lows against the euro and a basket of currencies on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled further interest rate cuts in the fight to avert a U.S. recession.
Risks of a contraction in the world's l More...
GBP-USD has come off sharply off its highs of 1.9975 seen earlier in the day on back of persistent rumors of a bank in trouble in the UK. This has caused a rally in EUR-GBP. More...
Well, it looks like they did it! One has to marvel at the power of money, pumped out by central banks and governments, and its ability to stoke the flames of risk taking. At least for now ... More...
The dollar slid to an all-time low versus a basket of currencies on Wednesday after weak U.S. data and comments from a top Federal Reserve official cemented views for more U.S. rate cuts.
More...
Euro broke through the mythical 1.50 barrier as the dollar sold off throughout the overnight session after U.S. economic data and comments from Fed Vice chairman Donald Kohn, suggested that more rate cuts are forthcoming from the Fed. More...
The weight yesterday of weak U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence data and a spike in the headline PPI report was too much for the USD to bear yesterday. Furthermore, headline German IFO data were considerably stronger than expected.
The EUR/USD br More...
(Reuters) - A top Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday that a weakened U.S. economy was a bigger worry than higher inflation, suggesting a willingness to lower interest rates further as the central bank tackles "difficult times."
More...
It has been a record breaking day in the financial markets with the US dollar falling to an all-time low against the Euro and crude oil futures closing at a record high. Although US Consumer confidence dropped to a 5 year low, that was not the primary cat More...
The USD made a new record low (1.4984) vs. the EUR and is closing significantly lower vs. the GBP. The carry trade funding currencies (CHF and JPY) are up strongly as well.
The catalyst for USD weakness was the release of considerably stronger-than-expe More...
U.S. PPI burning hot
Lomax warns on inflation expectations
German Ifo surprises on upside More...
A Boost for the Euro Black Swan Capital Tuesday February 26, 2008 - 12:39:50 GMT
A nice bump higher for the euro this morning after German business confidence unexpectedly ticked higher. Economists had been expecting the Ifo index to show ... More...
The news tonight should bolster the hawkish position of the ECB and provide further support for the argument that the European economy has decoupled from the U.S. We stated last week that the IFO could make or break the EURUSD this week and tonight’s More...
The euro hit a three-week high versus the dollar and a six-week peak against the yen on Tuesday after a forecast-beating German Ifo business sentiment survey dampened the case for near-term euro zone More...
Dollar-Swiss dipped during the day, but is finding Support at 1.0850. If this Support holds through the rest of the day, we could see a strong rise towards 1.0960 tomorrow. More...
The USD is trading weaker heading into N.Y. vs. the EUR and GBP. The carry trade funding currencies (CHF and JPY) are up as well.
The latest catalyst for USD weakness was the release a short while ago of considerably stronger than expected headline Germ More...
TORONTO (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar closed above parity with the U.S. dollar on Monday, for the first time in almost two weeks, as commodity prices and positive news for U.S. bond insurers boosted More...
NEW YORK, Feb 25 (Reuters) - The yen fell broadly on Monday as euphoria over the U.S. bond insurance sector boosted the appeal of stocks and other risky assets, helping to underpin high-yielding curre More...
Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist
Equities Accelerate, Carry Trades Take Off
Another volatile day has hit the equity markets which have led to sharp moves in currencies. News that Ambac and M More...
The USD is closing Monday in N.Y. about unchanged from late Friday levels. The EUR and GBP are steady. The carry trade funding currencies (CHF and JPY) are closing weaker vs. the USD.
Word very late Friday that U.S. banks were putting together a package More...
The dollar took another hit on Friday, but the move decelerated. Late talk about a solution regarding one of the monolines may help the US currency today. But the medium term outlook... More...
Equity traders have a saying, “There is no rally like a bear market rally.” Friday’s sharp reversal in US stock indices which caused a 200+ point turnaround in DJIA average in the last hour of trade w More...
The yen weakened broadly on Monday as positive news about the U.S. financial sector boosted appetite for riskier trades, helping underpin high-yielding currencies like the New Zealand dollar. Hopes More...
Gold Clues? Black Swan Capital Monday February 25, 2008 - 12:56:11 GMT
I just returned from a four-day investment seminar in St. Kitts. During one of my speaking sessions I laid out some of the reasons why I believe the dollar could rebound in 2008 ... More...
It has been a difficult market for many spot traders so far this year. Just as it seems that a trend might develop, the markets reverse. Many find it hard to trade ranges when the range parameters of the markets are unclear. Despite the range trading patt More...
The USD is opening higher in N.Y. from late Friday levels. The EUR and GBP are modestly weaker. The carry trade funding currencies (CHF and JPY) ar softer as well vs. the USD.
Word very late Friday that U.S. banks are putting together a package to recap More...
Dark clouds continue to hang over the US dollar as bearish sentiment took hold of investors, and pushed the already weakened currency lower against most of the major currencies. In today’ session, the Yen picked up as falling stock prices provided confi More...
The dollar fell broadly on Friday, hitting a three-week low against the euro, amid mounting fears of a U.S. recession and more credit-related losses.
But a CNBC television report that a bailout for More...
The flash estimates for Eurozone PMI services surprised to the upside tonight, printing at 52.3 versus 51.0, with manufacturing in line with expectations at 52.3. The Euro firmed against the dollar on More...
LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The euro hit a two-week high against a lacklustre dollar on Friday as above-forecast euro zone service sector data contrasted with regional U.S. factory activity putting on More...
The USD is trading lower from late Thursday levels. The EUR and GBP are leading the way. The EUR/USD has got a lift from the release of a stronger than expected flash EZ Services PMI. Subsequently EZ new industrial orders were much weaker than expected. T More...
TORONTO, Feb 21 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar finished a touch higher versus the U.S. dollar on Thursday, but its rise was largely a result of More...
The USD is closing lower again from late Thursday levels. The EUR and GBP are significantly better. The GBP has gotten a big lift from stronger than expected U.K. retail sales. The carry trade funding currencies (CHF and JPY) gained vs. the USD with a lag More...
AUD-USD has had little change during the day, after the nice recovery off its lows yesterday and it is facing Resistance near 0.9200 over the last 15 hours. The pair may trade in a range of 0.9240 and More...
On the U.S. data front, weekly jobless claims as well as the Philadelphia Fed's February business activity survey are due later in the day.
Economists expect factory activity index in the U.S. mid- More...
The pound rocketed for more than 150 points after U.K. retail sales surprised to the upside indicating that the UK consumer is alive, well and still spending money. The UK Retail Sales printed at more than double the expectations of More...
The USD is trading lower from late Wednesday levels. The EUR and GBP are significantly better. The GBP has gotten a big lift from stronger than expected U.K. retail sales. The carry trade funding currencies (CHF and JPY) are about steady vs. the USD.
Fo More...
It has been a very active trading day with market moving news coming from all four corners of the forex market. The US dollar was firm ahead of the NY open but reversed all of its gains by the end of the US session. The only two currencies that failed to More...
The release of minutes from a Fed policy-setting meeting in January during the afternoon caused stocks, bonds and the dollar to see-saw in choppy trading as investors... More...
While it’s true that the New Zealand dollar has been led around by the Australian dollar in recent days, this is more a reflection of where the flow of information has been coming from (and it’s not as though we can assume away the Australian economy More...
I am sitting in my hotel room looking out over the ocean here in beautiful St. Kitts; the beach is beckoning. Should I bask in the serenity, or ruminate on the incredible turmoil still brewing ... More...
LONDON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - The dollar steadied on Wednesday ahead of U.S. inflation data and minutes from the Federal Reserve that will be closely watched for signs on whether More...
The pound dropped to 1.9450 after February’s MPC minutes revealed that David Blanchflower, the most dovish of UK monetary authorities, voted to cut rates by full 50bp rather than 25bp. More...
The USD is trading modestly firmer heading into the N.Y. after a weak session early on Tuesday. It appeared that N.Y. dealers took a cautious posture following the unexpected USD weakness on Tuesday.
The spike higher in oil and gold prices unsettled the More...
With President’s Day now behind us, volatility has returned to the currency and stock market. Having been up over 100 points intraday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day down 10 points. Long gone are the days of universal dollar strength or More...
The Canadian dollar closed at its lowest level in nearly a month against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, as domestic data supported expectations of a Bank of Canada rate cut and offset any benefit from More...
The dollar fell on Tuesday as investors worried that a spike in oil prices to record highs could further slow the U.S. economy and prompt the Federal Reserve to again cut interest rates. More...
The New Zealand dollar rose above 0.80 for the first time since July last year, peaking at around 0.8020. The strong outlook for the Australian economy, the prospect of higher interest rates, and the relative calm in offshore financial markets, have helpe More...
U.S. indices gap higher on the open driven by gains in commodity stocks. Over the weekend Brazil''s Vale confirmed agreements to raise ore prices 65% for shipments to Japanese and Korean steelmakers. The news has spurred a rally for a wide range of mining More...
The dollar closed higher on Monday, but the bulk of its gains were against the pound. With the UK government forced to nationalize Northern Rock, the pound should remain under pressure... More...
USD-CHF has had a sharp fall during the day and is currently trading near the lower end of the range of 1.1100 and 1.0900. Note that 1.0911 is the statistically projected Max Low for the day.... More...
LONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a two-week low against the euro on Tuesday and the yen rose as investors pared risky trades amid worries about the banking sector, fuelled by reports of further writedowns by major banks. More...
The European indices are currently trading in negative territory in the session after a brief serge into positive territory following a lower open. Credit Suisse announced overnight that it will write down $2.85B in asset backed securities, More...
The dollar rally turned out to be a one day wonder, as currency markets shifted their focus back to the risks of the US economy and rallied the EURUSD above the 1.4700 level in early European trade. More...
The USD is opening mixed in N.Y., weaker against the EUR and firmer vs the GBP from late Monday levels. There has been a focus again today on the divergence between the EUR and GBP vs. the USD.
The carry trade funding currencies (CHF and JPY) are strong More...
US traders were off celebrating Presidents Day, leaving the currency market at a standstill after London traders left the office. In Friday’s Daily Fundamentals, we talked about how the dollar could rally over the next few days and it has indeed starte More...
The UK housing market is slowing sharply and this has led to fears that it could collapse, pushing the economy towards recession. But UK consumer debt levels are at a record high and some slowdown in More...
Currency traders returned from the week-end to the news that UK government has decided to nationalize the troubled Northern Rock bank rejecting two private offers despite complaints and threats of litigation from the companies shareholders. More...
The dollar recovered in trade thinned by a U.S. market holiday on Monday, as investors locked in profits following the currency's worst weekly performance of the year so far. More...
The New Zealand dollar begins the week higher on the back of a broadly weaker US dollar. The NZD sagged below 0.7850 earlier on Friday, after retail sales figures for December suggested that rising food and fuel prices are starting to eat into household s More...
The financial markets pretty much have gotten what they wanted from the Fed with the central bank abruptly reducing its Fed Funds target by 125bps in two steps at the end of January. With the central bank now finally ahead of the curve, it now has a respi More...
What Would Warren Do? Thoughts from the Frontline Saturday February 16, 2008 - 11:10:03 GMT
Today we look at the rather disturbing developments in the municipal bond market, Warren Buffett's offer to "rescue" the tax-exempt insurers, and ponder what the resolution will be. More...
The Canadian dollar fell versus the U.S. dollar on Friday as low liquidity ahead of a holiday weekend and weak domestic data pulled the rug from under the currency and knocked it lower for the second straight week. More...
Weaker economic data continues to drive the US dollar lower. Even though import prices hit a one year high last month, the Treasury International Capital flow report, Empire State manufacturing survey and consumer confidence fell short of expectations. More...
The U.S. dollar slid against most major currencies on Friday, and posted its worst weekly performance against the euro in 2008 to date, after U.S. economic reports rekindled fears that the economy continues to slouch toward recession. More...
This week the forex market started out with a certain economic optimism, which was reflected in the fact that equity markets firmed and that implied volatility decreased, both in the equity market and in the USD-JPY exchange rate. More...
The markets didn’t like Paulson’s and Bernanke’s reality-filled views on the housing and employment and dumped the dollar and the equity markets on Thursday. The majors must... More...
AUD-USD has had a sharp rally during the day and with that it has moved above its important level of 0.9070-80. A sustained move above this could lead to further gains later on in the day going into n More...
The USD is opening mixed in N.Y., weaker against the EUR and firmer vs the GBP from late Thursday levels. Carry currencies are mixed, the JPY is weaker on its crosses while the CHF has maintained yesterday's gains.
The markets (especially long-term bond More...
European fixed income futures are currently trading in negative territory in the session with little economic data to provide any guidance. The lower opens comes as follow through on comments made by the ECB''s Weber and the ECB''s Trichet in the previou More...
• Japanese Yen: Falls below 108.00 as BOJ holds course
• Euro: First Trade deficit in 12 months
• British Pound: weakens across the board
• US Dollar: TICs on tap More...
With the US economy deteriorating, we have been very suspicious of the recent dollar rally. The rebound has been primarily attributed to the hope for a shallow downturn and a swift recovery, but today’s comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernank More...
The Canadian dollar finished a touch lower versus the U.S. dollar on Thursday as data showed
Canada's trade surplus shrank more than expected in December, but the currency remained locked in a tight More...
Decision: February 15
Current Overnight Target Rate: 0.50%
Expected decision: No change.
There is market speculation now about a future BOJ rate CUT. Note below that core and headline CPI remain mildly deflationary. Also the economy has started to s More...
The USD is closinging lower in N.Y. against the EUR and GBP from late Wednesday levels. The JPY and CHF (carry funding currencies) are firmer as well.
It is interesting that the markets (especially long-term bonds) suddenly were uncomfortable with an ac More...
he New Zealand dollar bounced back above 0.7900 overnight, reclaiming all of the ground lost against the Australian dollar yesterday. Model-based traders were steady buyers of the NZD through the night, taking it to just short of 0.7920, before a weak ope More...
The greenback has had a whippy session as risk adverse investors seem to be re-entering the market late in the NY morning. USD/JPY is losing ground as equity markets make news lows. More...
The dollar saw the expected upside on Wednesday, at least versus the low-yielding yen and franc amid a rising stock market and a seemingly strong US retail sales report... More...
Happy Valentine’s Day! I just thought I’d throw that in there in case you haven’t been reminded of this particularly unnecessary holiday enough already. I hope those red roses are on order because ... More...
GBP-USD has had a sharp rally during the day and it is coming close to its BIG Resistance of 1.9753-60, which comes on a trendline on the Daily Charts joining the highs of 2.1163 (09-Nov) and 1.9943 More...
The euro rose to a one-week high against the dollar on Thursday, and the yen was generally weaker as risk appetite improved following upbeat Asian and U.S. economic data which helped to push up stocks. More...
The European indices opened higher in the session, but slowly moved lower as the session progressed. There was a slew of earnings releases in the European pre-market today, More...
The European indices opened higher in the session, but slowly moved lower as the session progressed. There was a slew of earnings releases in the European pre-market today, More...
Currencies put in a relatively tame performance in Asian and early European trade today with high yielders attracting flows as risk appetite returned to the market. More...
The USD is opening lower in N.Y. against the EUR and GBP from late Wednesday levels. The JPY and CHF (carry funding currencies) are mixed.
Dealers await the release of the December U.S. trade data and weekly jobless claims at 13:30 GMT (08:30 EST). Late More...
The US dollar continued to rebound as consumer spending snapped back in the month of January, skirting a repeat of 2001. The market had expected a back to back decline in retail sales, but the last time this happened was 6 years ago. More...
The USD is closing in N.Y. roughly steady against the EUR and GBP from late Tuesday levels. The JPY and CHF (carry funding currencies) are firmer once again. The two fnding currencies followed the lead of equities again.
Earlier EUR/USD was weighed down More...
The dollar climbed to a one-month high against the yen on Wednesday after government data showed an unexpected rise in U.S. retail sales last month, easing concern that the U.S. economy will fall into a recession. More...
The dollar climbed to a one-month high against the yen on Wednesday after government data showed an unexpected rise in U.S. retail sales last month, easing concern that the U.S. economy will fall into a recession. More...
The New Zealand and Australian dollars fell overnight as strains in credit markets continued to weigh on investor confidence. This time the rumour mill came closer to home – rumours that Australian More...
The tune from Wizard of Oz, one of my favorite movies of all time, plays in my head during these kinds of markets. The scene, you may remember, is when ... More...
UK labor markets recorded surprising strength as jobless claims declined by -10.8K versus -5.0K projected suggesting that the current turmoil in financial markets is having little negative impact on employment for the time being. More...
The dollar was steady against the euro on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to U.S. retail sales data later in the session for clues on the depth of the economic slowdown and the likely need for further interest rate cuts. More...
In currencies the Swedish Krona was firmer overnight after Riskbank shocked the market with a 25bps interest rate hike at today''s meeting; the overwhelming market consensus was for Riksbank to keep rates on hold at 4.00% More...
USD-CHF has had little move during the day so far and it continues to trade within yesterday’s range. For today the Resistance is at 1.1050 and then at 1.1095, on the trendline on the Daily Candles jo More...
The USD is opening in N.Y. firmer against the EUR and GBP from late Tuesday levels. The JPY and CHF (carry funding currencies) are steady to weaker. The EUR/USD has been weighed down by weaker than expected E-Z industrial output data.
The BOE quarterly More...
Warren Buffet’s willingness to take on risk has encouraged other traders to do so as well. According to a plan announced by the world’s most famous investor, Berkshire Hathaway will be stepping in to cover the liabilities of $800 billion in municipal More...
The Canadian dollar finished flat versus the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in a session in which it hit a one-week high ahead of data that could point to a recession in the United States. More...
The yen fell broadly on Tuesday after billionaire Warren Buffett offered to assume troubled bond insurers' liabilities, increasing investor appetite for risky assets such as stocks and high-yielding currencies. More...
The USD is closing lower against the EUR from late Monday levels. The JPY and CHF (carry funding currencies) are steady to weaker. The EUR/USD got a modest lift early from the February ZEW data which were not as weak as feared.
The GBP improved despite More...
Wobbly credit markets have kept investors on edge in recent weeks, and we suspect this has been the main barrier to a break above 0.80 in the New Zealand dollar. More...
Indices catch a bid after Warren Buffet reveals details of his offer to insure $800B worth of municipal bonds. He noted his plan has already been rejected by one of major U.S. bond insurers and would do nothing to mitigate CDO exposure, but nevertheless More...
We’re watching the charts closely, as usual, for signs of a major trend change in the currency market. For about the last five years, the trend has been "dollar down” as traders get out of green ... More...
After the nice pullback yesterday, USD-CHF has had small move during the day so far and it continues to consolidate within its range of 1.0900 and 1.1100. Any major may not be seen later today as well More...
The USD remains in a consolidation range against the European currencies, but risk aversion chatter remains prevalent. The EUR/USD is maintaining a 1.4480 to 1.4580- range, while More...
he euro held steady near last week's lows versus the dollar on Tuesday as a survey showing improved German investor sentiment did little to alter the view that the ECB is set to cut rates in the next few months. More...
The ZEW survey printed at –39.5 vs. –43.0 as investor sentiment bounced from 15 year lows, but the news provided only a modest lift to EURUSD and the pair was trading essentially unchanged on the day after the news hit the screen. More...
The USD is opening about steady from late Monday levels in NYC. The EUR/USD has gotten a modest lift from the February ZEW data which were not as weak as feared. However the European unit has proved unable recently to build on positive data.
The GBP has More...
The Canadian dollar ended lower against the U.S. dollar on Monday in a lackluster session in which investors reflected on weekend Bank of Canada comments that suggested more interest rate cuts are on the way. More...
The yen rose broadly on Monday as investors grew more risk averse while the euro eked out a small gain against the dollar as the market weighed inflation remarks from monetary policy-makers. More...
The USD is closing mixed to lower vs. the majors from late Friday levels. The EUR got a boost from hawkish post-G7 comments by ECB President Trichet. The G7 turned out generally to be a non-event for the market as there was not a lot of common ground for More...
Currency markets were quiet in the aftermath of the weekend’s G7 meeting, with little in the way of major data releases. The New Zealand dollar traded a narrow range between 0.7870 and 0.7910. The local data calendar remains light in the near term, apar More...
Indices start the week in the red as AIG spooks markets ahead of the NY open. In a filing released just before the open AIG -11% disclosed that they have been advised to expand prior disclosures for More...
The euro steadied on Monday from its biggest weekly slide in 1-1/2 years versus the dollar, benefiting from hawkish policymaker comments, while the yen rose broadly as investors cut back on risky trades. More...
The USD was mixed in a quiet start of the trading week. The G7 did not single out US dollar or Euro in their official statement scaled down rhetoric on China FX policy. The risk aversion theme is helping the JPY and CHF firm More...
AUD-USD has been firm during the month so far after the RBA rate hike on 05-Feb. It has got a further boost today from the RBA Quarterly monetary policy statement, which was hawkish. Now the pair is More...
The USD is opening generally lower vs. the majors from late Friday levels. The EUR got a boost from hawkish post-G7 comments by ECB President Trichet. The G7 turned out generally to be a non-event for the market as there was not a lot of common ground for More...
In the wake of an uneventful G-7 meeting marked by relative nonchalance of Eurozone monetary and fiscal officials regarding the possible economic slowdown in the region. More...
Rightly or wrongly, it is the perception of forex markets that the U.S. Federal Reserve, despite itself has gotten ahead of the curve in the U.S. and will have a respite until its March 18 meeting. This will give the central bank another month or so see m More...
The evidence continues to mount that the US is in a recession. In this week's letter, we will look at the blind spot in the unemployment statistics, the continuing meltdown in the credit markets, and More...
The Canadian dollar shot higher versus the U.S. dollar on Friday thanks to a stellar domestic jobs report, but it later backed off its session high, and suffered its first weekly loss in three weeks.
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The Risks Facing the US Dollar - It has been a quiet day in the currency market with no US economic data released other than wholesale inventories, which was stronger than expected but not market moving.
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The dollar slipped on Friday on light profit-taking but was still on track for the biggest weekly rise since June 2006 as investors increasingly expect the U.S. growth slowdown to drag on other economies. More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Friday February 8, 2008 - 18:10:57 GMT
In currencies, the USD maintained a consolidating tone ahead of the weekend G7 in Tokyo. EUR/USD holding 1. 4450 to 1.4520 range. Dealers are noting that Gold and European currencies seem to be entering a decoupling phase. More...
The US labour market report shows that payrolls fell by 17k in January; at the same time employment levels were adjusted significantly downwards in the government’s annual revision. More...
AUD-USD hit a low of 0.8874 yesterday before recovering sharply, leaving a long down-wick on the Daily Candle. This indicates some buying came in near 0.8875. More...
The euro was on track for its biggest weekly fall versus the dollar in 1-1/2 years on Friday, after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet left the door open for an interest rate cut later this year. More...
Despite a torrent of bad economic news the dollar has been on a tear this week (see our story Why Is The Dollar So Strong), as the currency market recognized the fact that the slowdown in US economic More...
Consolidation was the theme in currencies during the European morning ahead of the Tokyo G7 summit meeting. Dealers cited technical factors were cited for the listless trading environment following Thursday's central bank decisions in Europe. More...
February 8, 2008 GVI Market Snapshot-- Europe Mid-SessionThe USD is holding roughly steady vs. the EUR, JPY and CHF heading into the N.Y. open on Friday. The absence More...
The US dollar continued to strengthen today but to the rest of the world, it is losing its luster. With the dollar falling 13 percent against the Euro since the beginning of last year, More...
The Canadian dollar closed lower against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, given the nagging concerns that a global economic slowdown could erode demand for the country's key export commodities.
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The euro dropped against the dollar on Thursday after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said euro zone growth risks are to the downside, paving the way for lower interest rates this year. More...
The USD soared vs the EUR and GBP, plus it is ending stronger on the day vs. the carry trade funding currencies (JPY and CHF).
The U.K. saw weaker than expected U.K. production figures and then a -25bp cut in its repo rate to 5.25%. The BOE policy state More...
Morning Report Westpac Institutional Bank Thursday February 7, 2008 - 19:55:46 GMT
Recent economic data has been surprisingly strong, greatly increasing the odds of a hawkish RBNZ at the March review – contrary to the prevailing sentiment that further hikes are not only unexpected More...
Sterling fell after a widely expected UK interest rate cut on Thursday, while the euro weakened on expectations that an on-hold rate decision from the European Central Bank would be followed by dovish rhetoric. More...
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted to reduce the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves by 0.25 percentage points to 5.25%.
The prospects for output growth abroad have deteriorated and the disruption to global fi More...
GBP-USD suffered a sharp fall during the day, ahead of the BOE meeting where a 25bps rate cut is expected. The pair is likely to have considerable volatility going into the decision. We expect further More...
The USD is trading mostly sideways against the majors ahead of the BOE and ECB decisions. The carry trade funding currencies (JPY and CHF) are slightly firmer from late in NYC on Wednesday.
The GBP is softer following weaker than expected U.K. productio More...
The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as upbeat domestic economic data offered support, but its move was limited ahead of the more
important jobs report due on Friday.
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The euro drifted lower on Wednesday, with investors expecting the European Central Bank's vigilant stance on inflation to give way to concerns about economic growth following a decision on interest rates on Thursday. More...
The USD has continued to advance against the EUR and GBP, but eased over the NY session. The carry trade funding currencies (JPY and CHF) are roughly better from late in NYC Tuesday.
The market seems to have already priced in the worst for the U.S. and More...
The Week Ahead updated February 1, 2008
• US NFP disappoints and the USD rebounds
• Possible bailout for bond insurers
• ECB, BOE and RBA to decide on rates next week
• Key data reports and eve More...
The weak US data has left the New Zealand dollar on the back foot again, though it will be a while before we know if this was more than a temporary blip. More...
FX Ranges Limited
BoE and ECB rate decisions tomorrow More...
Just the Beginning? Black Swan Capital Wednesday February 6, 2008 - 14:12:38 GMT
Not being a stock guy, though I once played one as a broker and money manager, I find it fascinating watching analysts/advisors/cheerleaders cascading across Tout TV to tell us that stocks are ... More...
GBP-USD fell to a low of 1.9657 during the day, missing our TP by 2 pips and has bounced. However it stays bearish and a fall is very likely later on in the day towards 1.9540 or 1.9500, the statistic More...
The USD remains mixed among the major pairs in choppy trading on Wednesday. Risk aversion continues to provide some firm footing for JPY and CHF as global equity markets linger on the soft side. More...
The yen gained against the dollar and euro on Wednesday as worries about the health of the global economy and a sharp sell off in Asian equity markets made investors less willing to take on risk. More...
It was another night of euro selling in the currency market in a generally quiet session marked by absence of any meaningful economic data on the calendar in both the EZ and UK. The EURUSD continues to be affected by rising waves of risk aversion and More...
Despite the devastatingly weak U.S. economomic data over the past several sessions, the USD has continued to advance against the EUR and GBP. The carry trade funding currencies (JPY and CHF) are roughly steady to better from late in NYC.
The market seem More...
The euro slid against most major currencies on Tuesday as dismal euro zone service sector data fueled expectations the European Central Bank might follow the United States in cutting interest rates. More...
The Canadian dollar closed loweragainst the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as another bout of recession talk south of the border triggered concerns about what impact that could have on demand for More...
Forex markets came to life on Tuesday following the tentative Monday session in the wake of the weak U.S. January employment report. Not only were E-Z Services and Retail Sales data unexpectedly week, but the U.S. January Services PMI was especially soft. More...
The calmness to start the week likely stemmed from the digestion of Federal Reserve rate cuts and introduction of a fiscal stimulus plan. And there’s not nearly as much ... More...
GBP-USD has been remarkably resilient during the day despite the fall in EUR-USD, although a low of 1.9664 was seen. We still remain bearish for the pair. More...
The USD was firmer against the major currencies during the European session, aided by a steepening yield curve. Dealers noted that banks were ''scrambling'' for USD funding ahead of the European equity open as evident by the price action in the Euro Dolla More...
The EURUSD tumbled more than 100 points in active overnight trade as a key gauge of service activity in the Euro zone registered its worst reading in more than 4 years suggesting that the economic slowdown may be spreading its way across the Atlantic. More...
Forex markets have come to life on Tuesday following a tentative Monday session. The USD is up sharply against the most of the major currencies. The EUR, CHF and JPY have sold off heavily. The GBP has lost ground as well.
The catalyst for trade today ha More...
The euro fell sharply on Tuesday as surprisingly weak euro zone service sector data increased pressure on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates to shore up growth. More...
Last week the focus of the currency market was on the US economy and interest rates. The Federal Reserve lowered the Fed funds rate by 50bp and two days later, the market learned that the US economy reported that 17k jobs were lost in the month of January More...
The dollar slipped against the euro and edged up against the yen on Monday as investors waited to see how major central banks at policy meetings this week will respond to a potential global economic slowdown. More...
The Canadian dollar finished atouch higher against the U S. dollar in a lackluster session on Monday as a rise in oil prices was not enough to spark a move ahead of key domestic data due later in the More...
The USD drifted mostly lower against the majors in a quiet Monday trading session. The GBP gained, while the JPY ende down modstly vs. the USD.
The markets are expecting a rate cut from the BOE on Thursday and such a move would be seen as positive for t More...
Morning Report Westpac Institutional Bank Monday February 4, 2008 - 19:48:47 GMT
Barring any fresh shocks in offshore markets, we would have to put reasonably high odds on the NZD breaking through its previous record high of 0.8110 in coming weeks. That’s a big ‘if’, though – More...
A horrible non-farm payrolls report failed to buckle the dollar for long and the US currency closed higher versus the European currencies and flat against the yen. More dollar strength is likely here. More...
The yen weakened broadly on Monday as a rally in global equity markets signalled a tentative recovery in risk appetite, while the dollar steadied against a basket of major currencies. More...
The US Fed is cutting interest rates sharply, fearful of recession and the fallout from the credit market crisis. The US government has also enacted a fiscal stimulus package worth $150bn, or 1.1% of gdp, which will take the budget deficit to 2.4% of the More...
GBP-USD closed mixed for Jan-08, after it saw sharp losses in first three weeks of the year to a low of 1.9337 on 22-Jan. It then rose to a high of 1.9960 last week and has come off again from there, More...
A relatively calm start to the week in currency trading with the dollar up slightly against the yen as Nikkei gained more than 200 points providing a boost to carry trade flows. More...
The USD is opening roughly steady in N.Y. from late Friday levels. Most of the major USD relationships are about unchanged. The GBP is stronger heading into the BOE policy decision on Thursday. The markets are expecting a rate cut from the BOE and such as More...
Fed Chairman Bernanke followed through on his large -75bps intermeeting cut in its Fed Funds target to 3.50% a week and a half ago with another outsized -50bp rate cut at is regularly scheduled meeting last Wednesday. That is a whopping 125bps in rate More...
Morning Report Westpac Institutional Bank Sunday February 3, 2008 - 21:12:52 GMT
Locally, this week’s wages (Tues) and employment (Thurs) figures will emphasise the extent of the inflation pressures that the RBNZ is facing. More...
Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve told the markets that the reason why they lowered interest rates by 50bp to 3 percent was because the labor market is weak. However, the severity of the problems with job growth was not clear until the release of thi More...
The dollar rose against the euro and sterling on Friday after stronger-than-expected manufacturing data offset news showing the U.S. economy shed jobs last month for the first time in 4-1/2 years. More...
The Canadian dollar rose 1 percent against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as equity markets made healthy gains, putting a positive spin on the global growth outlook and giving support to commodity-based currencies. More...
The dollar encountered choppy trading and closed little changed on Thursday. With the overdone reaction to the expected Fed rate cut out of the way, brace yourselves for another shock... More...
The dollar edged lower on Friday to within a cent of record lows against the euro and at weak levels against other major currencies, as traders bided time ahead of critical U.S. employment data. More...
Currencies spent a typical pre-NFP night consolidating in tight ranges as traders squared up ahead of the US employment data due later today at 13:30 GMT. More...
USD-CHF has fallen sharply during the day and the pair is currently trading just above its all time low of 1.0758, which was tested yesterday. Fresh new lows are very likely later on in the day and th More...
The USD is opening roughly steady in N.Y. from late Thursday levels. Anticipation of the monthly employment report on Friday kept many on the sidelines. Street chatter is for a worse than expected release due to the January seasonals, despite the ADP data More...
The Canadian dollar tumbled back below parity with the greenback on Thursday on fears the United States, by far Canada's biggest trading partner, is
teetering on the brink of a recession. More...
The dollar crept higher against the euro on Thursday as dealers braced for a U.S. jobs report that may shed light on how close the economy is to recession.
More...
The USD is closing steady in N.Y. from late Wednesday levels. Monthend and anticipation of the monthly employment report on Friday kept many on the sidelines.
After opening weaker, U.S. share markets are putting in a strong close. European bourses ended More...
Well, the currency market woke up from its coma for about two or three hours yesterday. Price action after the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points was wild, to say the least. The dollar ... More...
The USD remains on the soft side following the FOMC interest rate decision and the related statement released on Wednesday. The EUR/USD continues to hold above the 1.4830 technical pivot point, but is off of its best levels seen in pre-European trading. H More...
A day after another interest cut from the Fed and the EURUSD has lost most of its post news momentum after disappointing German Retail Sales figures raised concerns that the economic slowdown in US is starting to spread across the Atlantic. More...
he dollar recovered from an earlier two-month low against a basket of currencies on Thursday as investor focus switched to troubles in the financial sector and away from the previous day's hefty U.S. interest rate cut. More...
Concerns about the credit worthiness of the monoline bond insurers overshadowed the 50bp cut in the Fed Funds target yesterday to 3.00%.
Asian bourses closed mixed with the Nikkei higher and the Shanghai Exchange lower. Investors worry that China is bei More...
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp to 3.00 percent. In a little more than one week, the US central bank has lowered interest rates by 125bp, turning the US dollar into a de facto carry trade funding currency. More...
The dollar sank to a two-month low against a basket of currencies on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut benchmark interest rates a half percentage point and warned more may be needed to support the faltering U.S. economy. More...
The Fed cut its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.0% this morning, and indicated that they are willing to do more as required. The statement incorporated much the same wording as the one following last week’s unscheduled 75bp cut, More...
What If? Black Swan Capital Wednesday January 30, 2008 - 12:27:08 GMT
Just in case you may reside on another planet and hadn’t noticed, the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, the jolly bunch assembled together representing the de facto global central bank ... More...
The dollar slipped to two-week lows against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday as investors awaited the U.S. interest rate decision later in the day, which will likely be another recession-fighting cut. More...
Another grinding session of listless trade in Asia and Europe today as markets appear to have come to a standstill ahead of the FOMC rate decision due today at 19:15GMT. More...
The USD was softer against the major currencies ahead of the FOMC decision later today. The EUR/USD took out an alleged option barrier at the 1.48 level ahead of the NY open led buy good buying from US brokerage names. More...
Markets are awaiting the FOMC decision later. As of the U.S. close Tuesday, Fed Fund futures had placed 100% odds on a -25bp rate cut by the Fed PLUS 68% odds on an additional -25bp cut for a total of -50bps. These odds are below the near 90% odds on the More...
All eyes are locked on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision tomorrow afternoon. The price action of the US dollar has been mixed since the beginning of the week indicating that traders are not ruling out any surprises. More...
U.S. equities closed stronger on Tuesday. Asian and European equity markets also ended mostly stronger in anticipation of a -50bp cut in interest rates Wednesday by the Fed.
As of the U.S. close Tuesday, Fed Fund futures had placed 100% odds on a -25bp More...
The dollar edged up against the euro and yen on Tuesday after mixed U.S. economic data prompted traders to trim bets against the greenback ahead of this week's interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. More...
The Fed’s rate decision, announced 8:15am tomorrow, is the key focus for markets at the moment, and it seems that the field is wide open – forecasts range from no change to a 75bp cut. It appears that the Fed is trying to frontload More...
Is it that easy? Can the prospects for a government stimulus package alleviate all our economic concerns in one fell swoop? It would seem investors are starting to think so – or at least hope so ...
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The dollar steadied against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, with investors expecting further significant monetary easing this week from the Federal Reserve as it seeks to head off a U.S. recession.
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A quiet range bound night in the currency markets as traders prepared for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting with the overwhelming majority of participants looking for another 50bp cut from the Fed. More...
The USD was mixed during the early European session as dealers focus on the outcome of Wednesday's FOMC decision. Dealers continue to see an 80% probability of another 50bps rate cut More...
Asian and European equity markets have traded mostly stronger today in anticipation of a -50bp cut in interest rates Wednesday by the Fed. The much weaker than expected December U.S. new home sales data on Monday reinforced this expectation. Anything less More...
The State of the Union address by President Bush is due later this evening in the U.S. The speech often gets a lot of political coverage but it rarely has any impact on the markets.
Much weaker than expected December U.S. home sales weighed on the USD o More...
The dollar fell against most major currencies on Monday, with dealers anticipating that the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates again this week to boost U.S. economic growth.
More...
US officials are set to spend much of this week trying to boost market confidence: President Bush is expected to announce a fiscal package of $150bn or more in his State of the Union address later today; More...
The Week Ahead updated January 25, 2008
• Roller coaster ride set to continue
• All eyes on the Fed next week
• US outlook remains weak, will drag on global growth expectations
More...
The dollar fell versus the pound and yen while rising against the euro and the franc on Friday as the Market consolidated. Trading should be choppy through Wednesday afternoon... More...
The extreme instability in the global financial markets a week go forced the hand of Fed Chairman Bernanke forcing the central bank to make a large -75bps intermeeting cut in its Fed Funds target to 3.50%. Beforehand, the central bank had already signaled More...
The yen was firmer across the board on Monday as demand for risky trades eased with stocks once again on the back foot amid persistent worries that a slowing U.S. economy will hit corporate profits. More...
Overall, the UK economy expanded by 3.1% in 2007, well above the 2.4% expected at the start by most forecasters. This was in a year that oil prices doubled and the currency was strong – at least for the first half. More...
Last week, AUD-USD rallied sharply after a big fall to 0.8511 earlier in the week. The sharp rise in the latter part of the week probably negates the fall from the 0.9019 High of 15-Jan. Whether it ne More...
Euro-zone M3 money supply contracted for the first time in 4 months suggesting that slowdown in lending and business activity is spreading across the Atlantic. More...
Trade is off to a cautious start on Monday as dealers set up for an active week for news. The USD is relatively narrowly mixed against the majors. It is weaker vs. the EUR, CHF and JPY. It is steady vs. the GBP from late Friday.
Dealers are now split on More...
With an emergency 75bp rate cut from the Federal Reserve and Societe Generale losing $7 billion in a trading fraud, volatility has ripped through the financial markets this past week. More...
The Canadian dollar eased slightly against the greenback on Friday, shaking off tamer than expected inflation data as oil and gold prices rose, and the market looked ahead to an expected U.S. interest rate cut next week. More...
The dollar rose on Friday as investors scaled back bets for another aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week and on optimism a $150 billion stimulus package would help support the U.S. economy. More...
The stock market crash was the dominant theme on the financial markets this week. On Daikan, the coldest day of the year according to the Japanese calendar, Asian stocks were the first to plunge, followed by European shares More...
The dollar fell versus the European currencies on Thursday to follow up its losses made late Wednesday, but struggled higher against the yen... More...
AUD-USD has been maintaining its bullish momentum during the day so far and is likely to show further gains later on in the day. The immediate Resistance on the upside would come in at 0.8860. More...
The yen fell broadly on Friday as a rally in global stocks fuelled appetite for riskier trades, putting the low-yielding Japanese currency under pressure. More...
After a tumultuous week, risk aversion appears to be the name of the game today. Odds are that traders will see no avantage in running risky positions into the Fed Decision next Wednesday.
There is still debate about whether the Soc Gen episode triggere More...
Risk appetite returned with a vengeance in the currency market tonight as Nikkei skyrocketed by more than 500 points helping to propel USDJPY to within 10 points of the 108 level. More...
The USD continued to take a hit as the unexpected rate cut by the Fed led to a big gain for commodity currencies, and rallied speculation that the depreciating currency will continue to fall for the sixth consecutive year. More...
The Canadian dollar vaulted well over a 1-1/2 cents higher against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as equities markets rallied, sweetening the outlook for global growth and the commodities that Canada produces.
More...
The Soc Gen fraud disclosures announced today had been rumored about all week and could have played a role in the equity meltdown early this week.
The markets are still trying to decide what impact this event had on the Fed decision to ease policy ahead More...
The euro strengthened against the dollar and yen on Thursday after tough talk on inflation from European Central Bank policymaker Axel Weber dampened expectations of More...
On the downside the Support for GBP-USD is at 1.9580 and then at 1.9520. Below that the Support is at 1.9480. We expect sellers to come in on rallies, as such; we ourselves are looking to sell.
More...
Fixed income futures opened lower in today's session on the back of a rebound in equity markets which started in the US following comments from the NY State Insurance Department yesterday, lasted throughout the Asian session, and has persisted into the Eu More...
The EURUSD rebounded above the 1.4600 figure in early European trade after better than expected IFO numbers boosted investor confidence and helped the DAX to gain more than 4% on the day. More...
The Soc Gen fraud disclosures announced today had been rumored about all week and could have played a role in the equity meltdown early this week. Now that the news is out, the markets can put this episode in their rear view mirror.
The late-afternoon s More...
The Canadian dollar climbed against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, in a day of whippy trading that saw North American equity markets comeback from steep losses, boosting sentiment for the commodities-based currency. More...
The leading story in the currency markets today is the US dollar and how it has fallen to a 2.5 year low against the Japanese Yen. However the 600 point intraday swing in the Dow has completely turned things around More...
A late afternoon surge in U.S. equities came after word that the NYS insurance regulators were a plan to recapitalize embattled mortgage insurers. More...
The Fed’s surprise rate cut on Wednesday night has gone some way to pull markets out of their downward spiral – more so in credit markets, which arguably present a greater risk to growth than weak equities More...
The dollar sank broadly and aggressively after Fed Chairman Bernanke finally followed the Wall Street conviction and cut rates aggressively inter-meeting. The FOMC lowered its target... More...
Mr. Trichet says he ain’t cutting rates just because the world is falling apart around him; no way! It’s all about inflation don’t you know. Earth to ECB…Come in ECB! More...
The yen strengthened broadly on Wednesday as nervousness about the health of the global economy persisted despite a hefty cut in interest rates from the Federal Reserve on Tuesday. More...
After several days of massive volatility global equity markets stabilized in early European trade, although Asia’s powerful recovery did not follow through to the Footsie and the Dax both of which traded slightly lower. More...
EUR-CHF has broken below its important monthly trendline (joining the lows of 1.4459 (Dec-02) and 1.5450 (May-06)) at 1.5960 and USD-CHF could remain pressurized while EUR-CHF sustains below 1.5960. More...
The surprise -75bp cut in the Fed Funds target to 3.50% yesterday has continued to reverberate through the markets. Bourses in the Far East had no opportunity to react Tuesday and have put in strong performances today. Another 50bp cut is now expected on More...
The surprise -75bp cut in the Fed Funds target to 3.50% yesterday has continued to reverberate through the markets. Bourses in the Far East had no opportunity to react Tuesday and have put in strong performances today. Another 50bp cut is now expected on More...
The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, after an emergency interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, followed by a smaller cut by the Bank of Canada, put the interest rate spread in Canada's favor and eased fears about the U.S. e More...
The surprise 75bp interest rate cut delivered by the Federal Reserve this morning brought US interest rates down to 3.50 percent, making the US dollar the third lowest yielding currency in the developed world. More...
The Fed surprised the markets with a -75bp cut in the Fed Funds target to 3.50%. Another 50bp cut is now expected on January 30.
The Bank of Canada cut its rates by -25bps, as expected to 4.00%. It also signalled future rate reductions.
Earlier, Far E More...
The dollar tumbled against major currencies except the yen on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly slashed its benchmark overnight lending rate in an attempt to allay market fears of a U.S. recession. More...
The dollar surged more than expected versus the European currencies, while the yen strengthened amid long liquidation of carry trades and other yen crosses... More...
The yen turned course and weakened on Tuesday, easing from two-and-a-half-year peaks against the dollar hit earlier in the day as the global stock market rout fuelled speculation of an emergency U.S. interest rate cut. More...
Another tremendous night of volatility in global capital markets that saw Nikkei drop more than –750 points while Hang Seng fell a mind numbing –2000 points More...
GBP-USD had a sharp tumble yesterday and early today to a low of 1.9337, from where a bounce has been seen, and it is near its statistically projected Max High for the day of 1.9525. Above this the More...
Bourses in the Far East have had another difficult session on Tuesday following sharp declines on Monday. Europe declined heavily on Monday and it is mixed at this hour. The Dax has been especially soft in both sessions.
The early call for the U.S. open More...
On Friday, we argued that the dollar may rally this week as traders reflect on whether it is realistic to expect the Federal Reserve to deliver an intermeeting rate cut or 75bp easing at the end of the month. As we predicted, the dollar has started off t More...
The Japanese yen strengthened broadly on Monday, hitting a two-and-a-half year peak versus the dollar as a rout in global stocks prompted investors to sharply reduce their exposure to risky, higher-yielding assets. More...
The Canadian dollar fell to a 4-month low versus the U.S. dollar on Monday as a selloff in global stocks and lower oil prices shook the domestic currency ahead of a widely expected Bank of Canada rate cut on Tuesday. More...
USD bears against the EUR are suddenly on the run, not because of an improved outlook for the U.S. economy, but for just the opposite reason. The outlook for the U.S. economy has significantly deteriorated. One view is that the Federal Reserve and the More...
After being very strong for the last few years, the UK pound is suddenly weakening, see chart a. It has fallen sharply against the US$ and reached an historic low of 0.7614 against the euro. More...
The dollar made little general progress on Friday amid mixed data, sliding equities and an economic stimulus package that failed to satisfy all. Only the pound sank on weak UK data... More...
A stunning collapse in global equity markets which saw Nikkei drop by -535 points, Hong Kong sink by -1383 points and the DAX lose more than -400 points in early European trade, triggered massive carry trade liquidation in the currency markets with EURJPY More...
The low-yielding yen rose broadly on Monday, hitting a 2-1/2 year peak versus the dollar and five-month highs against the euro as investors shunned risky trades amid a sell-off in global stocks.
More...
USD-CHF has had a sharp fall so far this month, led by EUR-CHF. The latter currently looks to be headed towards 1.5970-20, on the trendline on the Monthly Candles joining the lows of 1.4459 (Dec-2002) More...
It has been a tough week for the US dollar. On Wednesday the greenback fell to a record low against the Swiss franc and now it ends the week not far from its 2.5 year low against the Japanese Yen. More...
The Canadian dollar fell for the third straight week versus the U.S. dollar on Friday as concerns about what a slowdown in the United States could have on the domestic economy rattled the domestic currency. More...
The Japanese yen and Swiss franc firmed on Friday as a fiscal stimulus package failed to ease U.S. recession fears, prompting investors to shun risky assets such as stocks and higher-yielding currencies. More...
FX Briefing - BHF-Bank Friday January 18, 2008 - 19:08:16 GMT
· ECB hawks back down
· Bank Lending Survey shows lending constraints in the EMU
More...
We read a good piece by Hoisington Investment Management (HIM) earlier this week. In it, the crack staff at HIM delved into the U.S. economy and the potential for recession. They touched upon ... More...
AUD-USD had a sharp fall yesterday and early today to a low of 0.8700 and is currently trading on its trendline Support of 0.8770, on Daily Charts joining the lows of 0.7674 (17-Aug) and 0.8683 (07-Ja More...
The yen fell against the dollar and euro on Friday after rising Asian and European equities calmed markets, prompting investors to edge back into relatively risky carry trades. More...
Folowing early sharp declines, Asia bourses rebounded on short covering into the weekend. Talk of a $150bln fiscal stimulus program out of the Bush administration was a help as well. Detals are due today.
Exceptionally weak U.K. December retail sales da More...
In yesterday’s Daily Fundamentals, we warned that even though the US dollar recovered and we had a few pieces of stronger economic data, it is premature to assume that the sell-off has come to an end. More...
The Canadian dollar was dragged lower against the greenback on Thursday as a steady stream of dire U.S. economic news pointed to the growing possibility of a recession in the world's biggest economy, which absorbs nearly three-quarters of Canadian exports More...
The dollar retreated on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told a congressional committee that more interest rate cuts may be necessary because the U.S. economic outlook has worsened.
More...
A lousy Philly Fed reading just before the start of the Bernanke testimony today set the tone for the day. Equities closed down sharply.
Bernanke was supportive of a fiscal stimulus in general terms and to maintained his dovish monetary policy view.
M More...
The dollar ignored soft US economic data in Wednesday and mounted a powerful rally versus most of the majors and the commodity currencies. The exception was the pound... More...
This morning I did a Google search for two words, first ‘Bernanke’ and then ‘Trichet’. The Federal Reserve chairman’s namesake returned 3.25 million results. The European Central Bank president ... More...
USD-CHF has been very choppy during the day as it rallied initially to a high of 1.1089 and then has collapsed back sub 1.1000. Choppiness could continue in the pair later today and tomorrow as well, More...
The euro rebounded from two-week lows against the dollar on Thursday after comments from ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch suggested the central bank was not looking to lower interest rates yet. More...
In currencies the USD was mixed during the European session. Carry related pairs retraced from their recent sell-off as equity markets stabilized. More...
Euro continued to reel from yesterday’s comments by ECB Board member Yves Mersch which suggested that worries about price pressures in the Euro-zone may have been overblown. More...
The focus of the financial markets today will be on U.S. data and Congressional testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke at 15:00 GMT.
Bernanke is expected to be supportive of a fiscal stimulus in general terms and to maintain his dovish monetary policy view. More...
We are finally seeing cohesive price action in the currency markets as the US dollar recovered against every major currency. Stronger economic data has curbed expectations for a 75bp rate cut, leaving 50bp of easing the only realistic possibility. Unlik More...
Fears that demand for commodities will wane if U.S economy slides into recession prompted a return to risk aversion in the markets, knocking the Canadian dollar to it's lowest close against the greenback in nearly five weeks.
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The euro fell sharply on Wednesday after a European Central Bank official warned that growth in the 13-nation region could be slower than expected, fanning fears that U.S. economic weakness may be spreading to Europe.
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The USD closed higher against the majors. The EUR/USD is sharply weaker. An unwinding of EUR/USD longs was triggered by a comment by ECB member Mersch. The magnitude of the response to the comment was out of proportion to the news suggesting dealers got s More...
The dollar buckled early on Tuesday under the load of soft US economic data, which fueled expectations for a recession, but managed to recover aggressively versus all but the yen... More...
Best of Bad Choices? Black Swan Capital Wednesday January 16, 2008 - 13:25:57 GMT
The world’s central bankers (CBs) are well aware of the evil; it’s the global credit crunch and contagion associated. The contagion is gobbling up real money and wealth; it’s beginning to eat away... More...
After coming off sharply from its highs of 1.9743 yesterday, GBP-USD dipped to a low of 1.9529 during the day today and it remains bearish biased which was reconfirmed yesterday. More...
he dollar hit a 2-1/2 year low against the yen and a record trough versus the Swiss franc on Wednesday, as weak data led to growing fears of a U.S. recession and expectations of hefty interest rate cuts. More...
In currencies the carry related currencies remained the catalyst overnight. The JPY and CHF extended gains as lower equity markets continued the risk aversion theme. The USD was mixed due to the side effect of carry unwind. More...
Yen continued to strengthen in overnight trade as fears about the looming US recession and possible global economic slowdown turned all of the major equity indices red, prompting further unwinds of the carry trade. More...
The focus of the financial markets increasingly are on the risk of a U.S.-led global economic slowdown. The Intel and Citi earnings reports have been the catalysts this week. Asian equities were hit very hard today.
The JPY continues to gain on an unwin More...
In line with market expectations, the MPC decided to
leave interest rates unchanged at 5.50%. Ahead of the
meeting, speculation had been mounting that the
Committee would push through a follow-up.. More...
Retail sales and producer prices both contracted in the month of December, leading many traders to wonder whether the US economy will fall into recession. More...
The Canadian dollar edged higher against a broadly weaker U.S. dollar on Tuesday, but a lack of domestic data ahead of next week's Bank of Canada monetary policy announcement left it rangebound. More...
Volatility is the enemy of the carry-trade. To prove that point, Japan’s economy now seems to be fading fast, while the Japanese yen undergoes a substantial rally versus most other major currencies... More...
The dollar recovered from a seven-week low against the yen on Tuesday after Citi announced smaller than expected write-downs, slightly easing concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. More...
GBP-USD has finally had a bounce today, after many weak days on a trot and the higher than expected CPI number certainly helped. The immediate important Resistance today would come in at 1.9710-15, on More...
The pound staged a strong bounce off the lows in early London trade today as UK CPI held above BoE’s 2% target rate for the third month in a row, putting any notion of imminent monetary easing on hold More...
The USD is opening in N.Y. mixed against the majors. European currencies are about steady, The GBP has gotten some modest support from slightly hotter than expected inflation data. The JPY continues to gain on repatriation demand.
The tone of the USD re More...
The Canadian dollar made a modest rebound against a markedly weaker U.S dollar on Monday, but recent soft economic data prevented it from finding more traction. More...
The dollar fell on Monday to its lowest level in seven weeks against the euro and yen on fears that weak U.S. corporate earnings will push the economy closer to recession, requiring the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates.
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The first month of the year has been living up to its reputation for volatility. This year, the trigger has been uncertainty about the outlook for the U.S. economy that has thrown traders off. It appears that the economy has been slowing faster than the m More...
The dollar made little progress on Friday, edging higher versus the European currencies and slipping against the yen. All eyes are on the unraveling .of the subprime disaster and on the stock indices. More...
USD-CHF has had another plunge during the day and tested its lowest ever level of 1.0885 before bouncing a bit. However, the pair remains in bearish territory and there could be a fall towards 1.0800 More...
The dollar slid to record troughs versus the Swiss franc and seven-week lows against the euro and yen on Monday, on expectations that soft U.S. earnings reports this week will boost the need for more interest rate cuts.
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A host of dollar negative rumors swirling about the currency market propelled the EURUSD through the 1.4900 figure on the first trading day of the week More...
The USD is opening sharply lower against Europe. Even the GBP has gained. Risk aversion demand for the JPY.
Markets are might be reacting to rampant speculation about an early Fed rate cut of -50bps. although the odds for such a move fall each day as th More...
The Canadian dollar was undercut by a much weaker than expected December jobs report on Friday, which knocked the currency back by more than a cent against the U.S. dollar.
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The yen rose across the board on Friday as global equity markets sagged on renewed fears of further subprime mortgage-related writedowns in the U.S. financial sector, reducing investors' appetite for risk.
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Tensions in the money markets have eased, helped by coordinated global central bank liquidity injections at the end of 2007, see chart a and table 1. However, uncertainty remains regarding the outlook for the financial sector, especially in the near term, More...
GBP-USD has had a very sharp fall in the last couple of days even after the BOE kept the rates on hold, as the markets are discounting the fact that BOE is now “Behind the Curve”. This indicates that More...
The yen gained broadly and the high yielding pound fell to fresh lows on Friday as renewed worries about U.S. financial institutions' losses from credit market turmoil and falling equities eroded risk appetite.
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In currencies, the European session began with unwinding of carry trade positions as risk adverse sentiment returned to the market following the AXP write off announcement and word of Merrill's upcoming Q4 subprime- related write down of $15B. More...
The USD is opening higher against the Europe. Talk of risk aversion demand for the JPY.
Markets are still digesting the more aggressive than expected easing comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke on Thursday. It appears that Bernanke signaled a -50bp Fed Fun More...
The euro remained well bid in the aftermath of yesterday’s sharply contrasting messages from the two most important monetary policy makers in world. While ECB’s Jean Claude Trichet remained unrepentantly hawkish, Fed Chairman struck a much more dovish More...
The US dollar got killed as today’s comments from Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke send expectations for a 50bp rate cut at the end of the month skyrocketing. More...
The Canadian dollar see-sawed its way to a higher close against the greenback on Thursday, asweakness in the U.S. dollar, spurred by renewed expectations of aggressive U.S. interest rate cuts, out More...
The U.S. dollar fell sharply on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank was ready to take aggressive measures to support the U.S. economy against the steep housing slump.
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The USD is closing broadly lower against the majors.
Comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke were far more aggressive in favor of ease than the markets had been expecting. It appears that Bernanke signaled a -50bp Fed Funds rate cut at its January 30 meeting More...
Bank of England left the overnight lending rate unchanged at 5.50% for at least another month ending rampant speculation that UK central bankers would act preemptively to ease monetary policy in attempt to prevent a slowdown in the economy.
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After hitting a low of 1.9540 earlier today, GBP-USD has had a small bounce ahead of the BOE interest rate decision at 1200 GMT. The decision is expected to be very tight, however the chances of a 25 More...
In currencies, the major European currencies are consolidating ahead of the BOE and ECB rate decisions later this morning. The GBP remains below its 1.9650 pivot level, but off of its 1.9540 session lows. More...
The USD is lower against the majors vs. its Wednesday closing levels.
The early call for U.S. equities is for a weaker start. Bonds prices are higher. The Nikkei clsosed sharply lower again while European bourses have been in volatile ranges ahead of th More...
The Canadian dollar ended at a three-week low against a resurgent U.S. currency on Wednesday after a report showed Canadian housing starts for December missed market expectations by a wide margin. More...
The dollar rose on Wednesday, shrugging off worries of a U.S. recession, as investors started to focus on a potential growth slowdown in the euro zone after gloomy German industrial output and retail data. More...
The USD is closing higher against the majors.
U.S. equities closed sharply higher. Bonds prices fell as a result.
The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) ended mixed. Gold was steady again while oil eased. More...
The New Zealand dollar has been remarkably stable in the last few months, given the turmoil in markets overseas. Record highs in relative interest rates will continue to provide underlying support for the NZD, but More...
Many are expecting US policymakers to dispense generous amounts of help to the market. The latest calls from on high, delivered by Harvard Professors Feldstein and Summers, is for a healthy dose of: More...
GBP-USD has had a sharp fall during the day once again and it is currently standing on its Support of 1.9650-20, which has been holding since June-2007. A sustained break below this could see a sharp More...
The dollar inched up against major currencies on Tuesday ahead of keenly-awaited comments from the head of the Federal Reserve later this week, while sterling slumped as renewed fears about the British retail sector stoked expectations of UK interest rate More...
The pound hit 9 month lows in overnight trade on growing fears that a slowdown in UK economy will force the BoE to make preemptive rate cuts at tomorrow’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. More...
The USD is steady to mixed against the majors again as dealers continue to look for direction for the currency. The GBP and JPY are weaker at the moment. Rumors about the CDO markets yesterday upset the markets ans sent equities lower.
U.S. equities are More...
The New Zealand dollar has been remarkably stable in the last few months, given the turmoil in markets overseas. Record highs in relative interest rates will continue to provide underlying support for the NZD, but the uncertain global picture suggests tha More...
The USD is closing mixed against the majors as dealers continue to look for direction for the currency in the early days of the new year. There were several rounds of rumors about CDOs and Countrywide Mortgage.
The EUR and GBP are higher vs. the USD, wh More...
GBP-USD finally saw a bit of bounce during the day and the pair hit a high of 1.9831, near its statistically projected Max High for the day of 1.9841. However, it is corrected some of its intraday gai More...
The Australian dollar rose thanks to strong data and record gold prices on Tuesday, dragging down the Japanese yen, a popular source of cheap funding for investments in high-yielders like the Aussie.
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A battle of attrition in the currency markets tonight as neither bulls nor bears are able to get much traction and are stymied by unsupportive economic data and lack of clarity on the monetary front on both sides of the Atlantic. More...
The USD is mixed against the majors as dealers continue to look for direction for the currency in the early days of the new year.
The EUR and GBP are higher vs. the USD, while the JPY is weaker. The CHF is steady.
Pending U.S. home sales are due today More...
The USD bounced vs. the EUR, JPY and CHF. The GBP closed a touch weaker.
Pending U.S. home sales are due on Tuesday. A steady outcome is seen.
The commodity currencies (AUD and NZD) ended mixed. Gold and oil were weaker.
U.S. equities closed mixed. More...
Friday’s exceptionally weak December non-farm payrolls report led to sharp losses in the US dollar. Today the dollar recovered which is not surprising given the extent of the prior sell-off. However More...
The Canadian dollar endedMonday's North American session at a 2-1/2 week low against the U.S. dollar as falling oil prices and some unsubstantiated
rumors of a big writedowns at a Canadian bank More...
The very weak non-farm payrolls report failed to keep the dollar down for long. The US currency recovered its losses versus the European currencies... More...
The dollar rose on Monday after losses the previous session, as investors trimmed bets against the currency given persistent U.S. inflation pressures that may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates aggressively More...
The USD has bounced vs. the EUR and the JPY. The GBP is trading abiut steady.
Dealers note that no key U.S. data are due. The focus will be on a number of Fed comments today. Friday's employment data reinforced the bearish market view of the U.S. econom More...
The USD has bounced vs. the EUR and the JPY. The GBP is trading abiut steady.
Dealers note that no key U.S. data are due. The focus will be on a number of Fed comments today. Friday's employment data reinforced the bearish market view of the U.S. econom More...
GBP-USD closed with losses yet again last week and it has got off to a weak start once again in what is a very important week for the pair. The UK Trade Balance and the BOE interest rate meeting both More...
Less than 24 market hours after the horrid US NFP number and it is as though the event never happened as the dollar regained all of it post news losses trading back to 1.4670 against the euro in morning European session.
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Interest rate decisions in the UK and the euro zone head up the economic calendar this week. We expect both the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep interest rates on hold More...
Headline growth was therefore constrained by a larger than
previously reported negative contribution (-0.9% of GDP)
from net trade, thanks to slower export growth and a 4.7%
jump in imports..... More...
The Canadian dollar fell to a two-week low against the U.S. dollar on Friday, after data on domestic purchasing activity in December came in well below
market expectations, More...
Last year, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 100bp to prevent a major slowdown in the US economy. Although their efforts have forestalled a recession, it has not prevented one from potentially happening in 2008. More...
The dollar dropped on Friday after a December report showing the weakest jobs growth since August 2003 fueled fears of a recession and increased the likelihood of an aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.
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The Fed Funds futures are factoring a rate cut from the Fed. This is the best the market has to offer in terms of all available information. And we have nothing better to add. But, it may all be... More...
US NFP would come out later today and it is likely to provide big volatility in the pair. Importantly, the NFP would contain a revision to the previous 5 years data, which would make the move all the More...
The US Dollar did something rather unusual this morning: it strengthened. Indeed, EURUSD was pulled down towards support at 1.47 while USDCHF crept higher for a test of 1.1150.
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The GBP/USD rebounded from session lows of 1.9671 following the release of Nov final M4 data, which were revised higher. The JPY was softer as the European session wore on More...
December Non-farm payrolls are due for release on Friday and now more than ever, the number will be critical in determining where the US dollar is headed. More...
The Canadian dollar ended higher versus the greenback on Thursday due mostly to higher commodity prices, but nagging concerns about the U.S. economy capped the gains. More...
The USD is weak vs. the EUR and the JPY. Japan returns for a half-day session on Friday. JPY demand remained. On the other hand, the GBP continued to trade weak.
In light of the JPY demand, some commodity currencies (AUD and NZD) are weak on carry trade More...
34% odds on a full -50bp cut. 100% on -25bp on January 30... More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Thursday January 3, 2008 - 17:42:13 GMT
The USD rebounded from its weakness experienced in European trading in a volatile, choppy session. Risk aversion theme was prevalent prior to the US open More...
The dollar slumped on the first trading day of 2008 on news that the manufacturing ISM contracted to 47.7 in December from 50.8 in November. The exception to the rule was the pound... More...
USD-CHF has once again had a sharp sell off during the day and currently looks to be headed towards 1.1000, which could be tested tomorrow. The immediate Support for today would come in at 1.1096, the More...
You may have ended your New Year’s Eve party a couple days ago. And for some of you, it may have taken a couple days to overcome the champagne hangover. But markets are still partying hard ...
More...
Take a look at a chart of USDJPY and it will become rather obvious that the US Dollar is taking a beating. Indeed, the pair tumbled throughout the morning, breaking below support at 109 to target 108, while EURUSD punched above 1.4750. On the other hand, More...
The yen rallied to five week peaks against the euro and dollar on Thursday, boosted by a move to risk aversion as investors worried about the impact of a slowing U.S. economy on global growth and equity markets sold off.
More...
The first trading day of 2008 has not been good for the US dollar as the greenback weakened against every major currency with the exception of the British pound. Although the dollar had already started the US trading session on softer footing, the second More...
The Canadian dollar closed loweragainst the U.S. currency on Wednesday as investors shied away
from risky assets, but a jump in oil prices to $100 a barrel and record high gold prices helped cushion More...
The dollar slid on Wednesday as crude oil hit $100 a barrel and a gauge of U.S. manufacturing fell last month to its lowest level since April 2003, raising expectations for more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
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Markets quickly were getting back into swing for the new year. This is an important time of year as traders reposition themselves after many had squared up.
USD bearisness has persisted and was fueled by a shocklingly poor ISM PMI reoprt mid-morning in More...
USD off sharply on recession woes
FOMC meeting minutes released More...
U.S. Market Update Trade the News Staff Wednesday January 2, 2008 - 18:22:27 GMT
The USD was broadly softer against most of the majors following the release of the Dec ISM manufacturing data. JPY related pairs were softer as JPY was purchased as global equity markets started the year on a negative note. More...
The US Dollar has started out the New Year on a soft, but not entirely unusual note, as the oft-beleaguered currency has given up nearly all of the gains achieved on the last day of 2007.
More...
The dollar fell around a cent versus the euro on the first trading day of the new year with investors inclined to bet that coming U.S. economic news would be soft enough to merit more interest rate cuts.
More...
Markets are gradually getting back into swing for the new year. They will not all be fully open until next Monday.
This is an important time of year as traders reposition themselves after many had squared up. The USD bearisness so far has persisted. On More...
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