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U.S. Market Update Dow -22 S&P -5.8 NASDAQ -6.2
- U.S. Indices give some ground in
the early going, but thus far the trading has been orderly. JP Morgan cut
numbers in several of the brokers along with several downgrades at Punk
Ziegel has kept the pressure on financials. XLF -2% IAI -1.7% H&R Block
added to the uncertainty when the termination of the sale of Option One to
Cerberus was announced. Homebuilders and mortgage names are lower. FNM -
6% FRE -5% XHB -0.9% Shares of Nokia are off 3.5% after making some
cautious comments regarding handset prices overnight. Shares of AutoZone
and America's Car-Mart are surging 14% after strong earnings reports.
Treasury futures have been higher right from the open of floor trade as
traders continue to ponder the upward pressure on LIBOR rates. Futures
prices are off their best levels though. The yield on the 2-year fell to 2.
8% early in the session and has since rebounded to 2.85%. Fed fund futurs
see the odds of a 50bp cut at next weeks meeting at better than 50%. Jan
crude has ticked below $88 down another 1.5% ahead of tomorrow's OPEC
announcement regarding their formal decision on output. Feb gold remains
near session highs up 1.25% at $804.50 with the EUR/USD holding near
- In currencies, the 1.4620 is proving to be
formable support for the EUR/USD for the third straight session. Market
chatter continues that Eastern European names have been steady buyers of
Euros on the approach of 1.46 handle. The Euro upside gained additional
momentum after Euro-Zone PPI data for Oct came in well above expectations,
ahead of Thursday's ECB policy meeting and continued hawkish tone from ECB
policy members on inflation. Also aiding the Euro was comments from
Russia's Fin Minister. Russia raised the 2008 inflation forecast to 7.5% -
8.5% range against its prior 7% target. Dealers noted that typically the
Russian central bank buys USD/RUB and then purchases EUR/USD after strong
inflationary numbers to curb the Ruble appreciation and continue to
maintain its overall currency basket proportions. The CAD was broadly
weaker after the Bank of Canada unexpectedly lowered its key interest rate
by 25bp to 4.25%. USD/CAD was holding below its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
level of 1.0175 from its post Aug subprime move. EUR/CAD was approaching
the 1.50 level. CAD/JPY was lower by 225 pips at 108. The surprise move by
the BOC is increasing speculation that the BOE may follow suit at its MPC
meeting on Thursday. JPY firmer among the major pairs with lower equities
cited as one of the factors. The credit market concerns remain on the
front of the market's pulse as the LIBOR fixing rates remained elevated and
stressed. During a speech in Paris today, the Treasury's Ryan noted that
it is likely to encounter unforeseen challenges ahead and that a resurgence
of risk aversion is being experienced. Germany's DZ Bank stated market
turmoil will impact profits.
Goldman Sachs cut their S&P 500 2007
EPS growth estimate to 0.7% from 4.0%; Cuts 2008 estimates to 5.6% from 7.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.
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