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Tuesday December 4, 2007 - 20:17:42 GMT
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FX Research - Westpac Institutional Bank - Morning Report

Morning Report Wednesday 5 December 2007

New Zealand dollar
NZD range-bound, loses ground late in the day.
NZD/USD washed around in a tight range again on Tuesday as the market awaits economic data to provide some kind of impetus. With no local data releases the NZD was contained to a 0.7620 to 0.7650 range for the majority of the day but had a late dip as carry currencies suffered following the surprise Bank of Canada rate cut. The NZD briefly gapped down to 0.7598 in low liquidity before recovering quickly to close at 0.7630.

Australian dollar
Weak data weighs on AUD.
The AUD lost ground against most major currencies yesterday as economic data for Oct failed to meet market expectations. Retail sales and dwelling consents were both poor for the month of Oct, pushing the AUD down from circa 0.8810 to 0.8750 immediately following the release. The AUD then traded a narrow range between 0.8730 and 0.8760 before a brief round of risk aversion saw a further dip to 0.8710. AUD/USD opens at 0.8730 this morning.

Major currencies
Bank of Canada cuts rates,
England could be next. Last night saw the Bank of Canada cut its overnight interest rate by 25bps to 4.25% due to credit conditions tightening and the increased risk to demand for Canadian exports. The EUR traded to a low of 1.4636 as London opened to comments from ECB member Christian Noyer noting we are facing a huge shock in financial markets. Dollar weakness returned later in the overnight session and talk of a take over of the large German chemical company Bayer helped EUR rebound to highs of 1.4765 which is close to today’s open. The JPY has strengthened also breaking back below 110 as concerns over the credit turmoil remain dominant. The JPY opens this morning around 109.60. The GBP has bucked the trend and continued lower as credit concerns in UK markets has led many forecasts picking a rate cut at this Thursdays Bank of England meeting. The GBP opens today around 2.0560.

Economic data and events
No major
US data. No major US data to report. However the weekly retail data were soft. Chain store sales plunged 2.0% in the week ended 1/12, but they did the same at this time last year, so it could be just a seasonal adjustment distortion. The Redbook retail average eased from 0.4% to 0.3%, reversing the prior week’s modest acceleration, but leaving in place a modest pick up in sales in November after a disappointing October.

The Bank of Canada cut its key rate 25bp from 4.5% to 4.25%. This reflected a stronger downward bias to the Bank’s assessment of the balance of risks. The main reasons were lower than expected inflation, tightening global credit conditions and heightened concern about the US economy.

Euroland PPI 3.3% yr in Oct. The PPI’s year-long downtrend appeared to come to an abrupt end in August-September with a combination of energy and food price gains this year and falling energy prices this time last year now driving the annual rate sharply higher.

UK retail and construction surveys soft. The private sector BRC retail survey remained weak in November, suggesting that consumers continued to stay away from the stores last month. At the same time, the construction PMI continued to fall away sharply, dropping to a 14 month low in Nov (consistent with other reports last week that mortgage lending is drying up). More evidence, then, that means this week’s Bank of England rate decision will be a close call, with the doves’ vote likely to increase from just 2 of the 9 (in November) - but will it rise to 5 or more? We see a rate cut on Thursday, but doubt it will be unanimous.

Upcoming Events
Date Country Release Last Forecast

5 Dec Aus RBA Rate Announcement 6.75% 6.75%
Q3 GDP 0.90% 1.00%

US Nov Corporate Layoff 63k –
Nov ADP Private Payrolls ch’ 106k –
Q3 Productivity Revisions 4.9% a 5.60%
Oct Factory Orders 0.20% –
Nov Non-Manufacturing ISM 55.8 55.5
Eur Nov PMI Services (F) 53.7 53.7
Oct Retail Sales 0.30% –0.3%

UK Nov Consumer Confidence 98 96
Nov PMI Services 53.1 53.5

Nov BRC Shop Price Index %yr 1.10% –

Latest Research Papers/Publications
• Housing down, but inflation not out (3 December)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (26 November)
• RBNZ MPS Preview (29 November)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (26 November)
• NZ Interest Rate Focus (20 November)

an Dollarw Zealand Doll

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.



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