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Thursday September 30, 2004 - 09:08:43 GMT
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Forex Trading Strategies by Robert P. Balan at Saxo Bank

AUD/USD likely to stay at .7120, rally to .7300 - .7400 follows; NZD/USD finds support at .6670

The Australian dollar rose on expectations reports today will show retail sales and credit provided to consumers and businesses increased in August, signs economic growth is accelerating.




DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY: Sept 30 - Europe


- Japanese manufacturers raised production in August for the first time in three months to meet overseas demand, easing concern about a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. Production rose 0.3 percent from July, seasonally adjusted, the Trade Ministry said in a report. The median forecast of economists estimated production to increase 0.5 percent. Overseas sales, which rose to a record in August after a two- month slide, are stoking production by companies including Nissan Motor Co. Manufacturers are also increasing investment in plants and equipment as they raise output, helping an economy that grew at its slowest pace in a year in the three months to June 30.


- The International Monetary Fund cut its 2005 forecasts for Asia's emerging economies, citing higher oil prices, slower growth in China and rising U.S. interest rates. The region, which includes India and Singapore, may grow 6.5 percent next year, less than the 6.8 percent expansion forecast in April, the Washington-based lender said in its World Economic Outlook. The IMF raised its forecast for growth this year to 7.3 percent from 7.2 percent. Asia's export-reliant economies are slowing as oil's 75 percent price surge in a year drives up energy costs and curbs demand for electronics, mobile phones and chips. Growth in the U.S. economy, the largest overseas market for most Asian countries, slowed to a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter from 4.5 percent in the first.


- The International Monetary Fund raised its 2004 growth forecast for Japan, saying exports and consumer spending are contributing to a recovery in the world's second-largest economy. Japan's economy will grow 4.4 percent this year, the IMF said, compared with a forecast of 3.3 percent made in April. The expansion will slow to 2.3 percent next year, the IMF said in its semi-annual World Economic Outlook released in Washington. Gains in overseas sales, corporate profits and domestic demand will help Japan overcome a second-quarter slowdown. Growth eased to an annual pace of 1.3 percent in the three months ended in June from 6.4 percent in the previous quarter as companies cut inventories and the government reduced spending.


- Crude oil fell for the first time in two weeks after the Energy Department reported an unexpected increase in U.S. stockpiles and concern eased that Nigerian rebels would attack oil facilities. Supplies gained last week for the first time in nine weeks. Analysts expected a decline. Imports rose 17 percent to 9.9 million barrels a day, according to the report, as shipping rebounded after the disruptions from Hurricane Ivan. Oil extended its fall after Reuters reported a Nigerian rebel leader said he wouldn't attack oil facilities. Crude oil for November delivery fell 39 cents, or 0.8 percent, to close at $49.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices reached $50.47 yesterday, the highest since futures began trading in 1983. Oil futures were up 74 percent from a year earlier.



FX Market Summary -


The yen may drop in Asia on forecasts the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey tomorrow will show confidence at large manufacturers improved by the least in more than a year. Demand for the Japanese currency may also wane, reversing the biggest rally in three weeks against the dollar yesterday, as crude oil trading near $50 a barrel threatens a recovery in the economy. Japan relies on imports for almost all its oil needs. Crude prices have gained 18 percent this month. Against the dollar, the yen traded at 111.18 at 8:43 a.m. in Tokyo from 110.88 late yesterday in New York. The Japanese currency was at 137.09 per euro from 136.75.

The Australian dollar rose on expectations reports today will show retail sales and credit provided to consumers and businesses increased in August, signs economic growth is accelerating. Any increases in retail sales and consumer credit may fuel speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise its overnight cash rate target of 5.25 percent, unchanged since December. Higher interest rates may broaden the gap between Australian and U.S. government bond yields, prompting buying of the local currency. The Australian dollar bought 71.67 U.S. cents at 9:53 a.m. in Sydney from 71.56 cents in late Asian trading yesterday.

The Canadian dollar rose to the highest since 1993 after government reports showed manufacturers' costs surged last month, boosting speculation the Bank of Canada will lift its target interest rate two more times this year. Canada's dollar rallied almost 4 percent since an Aug. 31 report showed export gains fueled the fastest economic growth in two years, prompting the first rate increase in 17 months a week later. The bank, which lowered rates five times in a year through April, now faces the prospect of an even stronger currency as it boosts borrowing costs to stem inflation. Against the U.S. dollar, the currency rose to 78.87 cents in Toronto after the price reports, the highest since May 1993. Until today, the most-recent high had been 78.85 U.S. cents on Jan. 9. It closed above 78 U.S. cents on Sept. 22 for the first time since Jan. 13.

Wednesday's summary: the dollar lost 0.02% against the euro and 0.46% against the yen. A bevy of economic releases served to underline that growth in the U.K. is slowing, taking some of the stuffing out of sterling. The currency was down 0.7% on the day, and down 0.9% against the greenback. The euro, in the absence of any major data, held to its recent ranges. The moderation in Italian CPI, according to the initial estimate reported today, served to confirm that ECB monetary policy will remain on hold for the time being – no surprise to anyone. The euro was down 0.2% for the day.



Forex Technicals:


- EUR/USD - the single currency rose in the Q2 GDP aftermath, although its hard to fathom why. And once again, the single currency moves up to within striking distance of the now well defined 1.2365 resistance area. It also looks like 1.2280 has defined the short-term support. And in between lies boredom. Nonetheless, expect recovery further out, and the upmove should eventually go beyond 1.2360, which effectively reinstates the rally towards 1.2500. The slightly longer-term positive outlook remains in effect still -- the rally should eventually make it to 1.2500. But we re-emphasize the longer-term view -- there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end. Failure to do so consigns the currency pair to a long sideways sojourn at 1.2500 - 1.2000 range.


- GBP/USD - Cable fell sharply on news that growth in the U.K. is slowing, taking some of the stuffing out of sterling. Technicals also deteriorated -- the small bounce may give way later to further declines to the area of 1.7930 - 1.7920. Let the currency seek a bottom later in the day -- we defer analysis until then.


- USD/JPY - there was a small uptick to 111.25 but the downtrend should resume soon. Now that the 111.00 support was taken out, expect further decline to 110.20 - 110.00. Further out, the rally may have topped, but we will defer further downside analysis for a day or so.


- USD/CHF - the currency stays in a narrow range -- no change in outlook, and the odds for a final uptick to 1.2660 is fading out fast. It may still do it, so keeps an eye out for it, at least until 1.2550 is taken out on the downside. The longer-term negative view kicks in thereafter -- the downtrend should resume. The currency pair may still be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.


- USD/CAD -- the downtrend pauses after meeting support at 1.2683. There might be a small sideways pattern. However, momentum projections suggests further declines further out -- we are now extending the downside target area towards 1.2500.


- AUD/USD - the currency pair went lower than expect -- to .7130 -- but rallied right back, and may resume the uptrend soon. A rally towards .7300 - .7400 goes back on track further out. The Aussie continues to benefit from its high-yield status and should lead the charge against the Dollar, and will alternate with the Kiwi for market leadership in the next few weeks.


- NZD/USD - The Kiwi pulled back to .6675 and found support. A rally to the .6750 top should be on its way shortly. The currency pair should then extend gains towards the .7100 high of the year. Long Kiwi remains the best candidate for in the medium-term, from both technical and fundamental perspective.


- EUR/JPY - no change in view -- the cross may have found support at 136.32. The rally should extend beyond 138.00 from here. We still think that the uptrend has potential to go to 141.00, but that has to wait until the 138.00 resistance has been taken out.


- EUR/CHF - there was this pullback to 1.5505 -- and the uptrend did resume from there. The cross should push through to 1.5550 and higher -- perhaps even to 1.5700 from here.


- EUR/GBP - looks like the cross has indeed bottomed out. It has been to .6856 and should find support at .6840. But the uptrend resumes shortly and should eventually push through .6867 top, which may trigger a rally to .7000.


- GBP/JPY - the cross failed to find it at 200.00 either -- expect further declines to 198.50. Then we wait and see.


- GBP/CHF - the cross settle back lower than expected and has been to 2.2650. It may fall further to 2.2600. Wait and see is indicated here as well.




==============================================


DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY: Sept 29 - New York



- The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.3 percent annual pace from April through June, faster than previously estimated, amid a quicker pace of inventory building and smaller trade gap than calculated earlier. The final number for second-quarter gross domestic product, the total of goods and services produced, exceeded the 2.8 percent estimate issued on Aug. 27, the Commerce Department said in Washington. The U.S. economy, the world's largest, grew at a 4.5 percent rate in the first quarter. Growth was still the slowest in more than a year as record gasoline prices held back consumer spending. Economists including Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan say the expansion very likely regained momentum from July through September, helped by business investment and the return of shoppers to stores.


- British households took out fewer home loans in August than at any time for four years, government figures showed, while consumer confidence slipped and retail sales plunged this month, as higher borrowing costs curbed spending. Mortgage approvals dropped to 96,000 from a revised 100,000 in July, the Bank of England said. The retail sales index fell to -9 this month from plus 2 in August, the Confederation of British Industry said. Consumer confidence dropped to an 18-month low. The reports indicate that the Bank of England may only need to raise interest rates once more to contain inflation. The bank has raised rates five times since November to slow a housing boom that doubled property prices in five years and underpinned a consumer spending boom that pushed economic growth to a four-year high in the second quarter.


- A measure of the number of U.S. applications to buy a home or refinance existing mortgages rose last week to the highest level since early May, as housing keeps fueling the economy. The Mortgage Bankers Association's gauge of loan demand increased 4.9 percent to 724.7, the highest since the week ended May 7. The index has risen in three of the last four weeks. Mortgage rates declined last week to 5.64 percent, the lowest since March, spurring purchases and prompting more refinancing, the group's figures showed. A record 7.65 million homes will be sold this year, according to a forecast by Freddie Mac, the second-largest buyer of U.S. mortgages. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell from 5.66 percent and has stayed below 6 percent since early July. The group's gauge of purchase applications rose 2.7 percent to 469.1 last week from 456.6.


- Crude oil slipped from a record as concern eased Nigerian rebels may attack rigs and pipelines and disrupt output in Africa's largest oil producer. Nigeria's government expects the rebel threat, which sent prices above $50 a barrel yesterday, will do little to curtail supply, presidential oil adviser Edmund Daukoru said yesterday. A rebel leader yesterday told Agence France-Presse that he will meet President Olusegun Obasanjo today in Abuja. Crude oil for November delivery dropped 16 cents to $49.74 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1 p.m. London time. It reached $50.47 yesterday, its highest since the contract began trading in 1983. November Brent crude fell 25 cents to $46.20 a barrel on London's International Petroleum Exchange. A U.S. government report may show that U.S. crude inventories fell last week by 3.7 million barrels, close to a 29-year low, because of Hurricane Ivan.


- The index of leading indicators prepared by Swiss research institute KOF held at a marginally-revised 0.97 (from 0.98) in September. The gauge is widely-accepted to foretell the path of Swiss growth in six to nine months’ time. In that case, the uninterrupted streak of gains through much of the last year suggests gross domestic product will continue to expand through the balance of 2004, while the recent levelling-off hints that growth will reach a plateau early next year. The most recent purchasing managers' survey and industrial orders data together suggest that the second quarter's 0.4% q/q expansion will be modestly improved upon in the third quarter. Overall, expect real GDP to expand 1.6% this year - with an upside risk of more rapid growth - and over 2.0% next year. The revival, however, is dependent to a large extent on events in the neighboring euro zone -- Switzerland's largest export market. Prospects of a more modest recovery there would weigh on this Alpine economy's potential.



FX Market Summary -


The U.S. dollar opened the day lower.

The greenback gave ground against the euro and the Japanese yen after remarks by the president of the Kansas City Fed, Thomas Hoenig, suggested that the U.S. current account deficit would set a new record in the months ahead. Hoenig cautioned that despite the lower U.S. dollar strong growth was likely to lead to an expanding current account deficit. Hoenig is the second high ranking official within the Federal Reserve system to talk about the risks of a rising current account deficit this month. San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen made similar comments on September 10. One euro was fetching 1.2329 in early European trading after opening at 1.2324.

The yen will also come under renewed pressure as the Japanese economy is set to cool. Record high oil prices continue to undermine growth in an economy that relies on imports for almost all of its oil. Moreover, recent data show a weakening in consumer confidence at a time when business confidence should also reflect a loss of the recently prevailing optimism owing to higher energy prices and slower demand growth. A new business confidence survey is due on October 1. One U.S. dollar was fetching 110.84 yen a few moments ago.

The British pound was slightly lower after expectations for an upward revision of second quarter GDP growth failed to materialize. Instead, GDP growth for the second quarter was confirmed at 0.9% compared to the previous three months. Moreover, the housing market continued to cool as mortgage lending in August increased at its slowest pace in one year. Sterling was trading at $1.8064 or 1.4646 a few moments ago.



The dollar fell against the yen after Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas President Thomas Hoenig said a lower dollar ``helped'' with the U.S. trade deficit and that the news on inflation is ``good.'' The dollar fell as much as one percent against the euro on Sept. 10 after San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said the current account gap will expand should the U.S. currency stay near present levels. A weaker dollar helps narrow the trade gap by reducing the cost of U.S. exports, boosting overseas sales. As at 12:45 p.m. in Tokyo, the dollar fell to 111.12 yen from 111.37 late yesterday in New York.

The Canadian dollar held near an eight- month high versus the U.S. dollar on speculation economic growth will spur the central bank to lift its target interest rate. Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said on Sept. 20 that he will raise rates further as the economy accelerates. The bank's Sept. 8 rate increase was the first in 17 months. Today investors sold the U.S. dollar after a consumer sentiment index declined for a second straight month. Canada's dollar was little changed at 78.64 U.S. cents at 5:02 p.m. in Toronto. It closed above 78 U.S. cents on Sept. 22 for the first time since Jan. 13. One U.S. dollar buys C$1.2716. In the past seven days, the Canadian dollar has risen 2 percent.



Forex Technicals:


- EUR/USD - the Q2 GDP was likewise a non-event -- this time, the single currency rose in its aftermath as bond prices look like they have hit a bottom -- no change in the outlook. The single currency moves up to within striking distance of the 1.2365 resistance area, which is now well-defined. It also looks like 1.2280 has defined the short-term support -- a wayward Q2 GDP data may cause a retest of the area. Nonetheless, expect recovery further out, and the upmove should eventually go beyond 1.2360, which effectively reinstates the rally towards 1.2500. The slightly longer-term positive outlook remains in effect still -- the rally should eventually make it to 1.2500. But we re-emphasize the longer-term view -- there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end. Failure to do so consigns the currency pair to a long sideways sojourn at 1.2500 - 1.2000 range.


- GBP/USD - Cable has been to as high as 1.8160 -- then decided to make a small pullback to 1.8050 area anyway. Going forward. however, technicals remain positive as new highs elicit calls for further gains, and fundamentals remain fairly positive -- support should show up soon, probably even at 1.8050. A new series of advances is in process, the next target being 1.8375. As we said earlier, there is no big barrier between 1.8050 and 1.8500.


- USD/JPY - the currency pair finally broke below 111.00 and has been to 110.69. Now that the 111.00 support was taken out, expect further decline to 110.20 - 110.00. Further out, the rally may have topped, but we will defer further downside analysis for a day or so.


- USD/CHF - no change in view -- the currency stays in a narrow range, and the odds for a final uptick to 1.2660 is fading out fast. It may still do it, so keeps an eye out for it, at least until 1.2550 is taken out on the downside. The longer-term negative view kicks in thereafter -- the downtrend should resume. The currency pair may still be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.


- USD/CAD -- the downtrend may have gone back on track -- the currency pair fell to new low of 1.2683 moments ago. Momentum projections suggests further declines in the offing -- we are now extending the downside target area towards 1.2500.


- AUD/USD - the rally did pullback to .7155 and may resume the uptrend soon. A rally towards .7300 - .7400 goes back on track further out. The Aussie continues to benefit from its high-yield status and should lead the charge against the Dollar, and will alternate with the Kiwi for market leadership in the next few weeks.


- NZD/USD - The Kiwi pull back to .6689 and may have found support. A rally to the .6750 top should be on its way shortly. The currency pair should then extend gains towards the .7100 high of the year. Long Kiwi remains the best candidate for in the medium-term, from both technical and fundamental perspective.


- EUR/JPY - the cross may have found support at 136.32. The rally should extend beyond 138.00 from here. We still think that the uptrend has potential to go to 141.00, but that has to wait until the 138.00 resistance has been taken out.


- EUR/CHF - the cross may yet pullback to 1.5505 area -- we see no technical reasons why the uptrend will not resume from there -- no change in view. The cross should thereafter push through to 1.5550 and higher -- perhaps even to 1.5700.


- EUR/GBP - the cross went higher than .6815, and looks like the cross has bottomed out. The uptrend is set to resume and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.


- GBP/JPY - the cross failed to find support at 200.50 but may find it at circa 200.00. The cross should rise further thereafter, to 203.70 then corrects back a little probably to 202.00. But further out, the cross makes a beeline for the 205.00 target.


- GBP/CHF - the cross settle back lower than expected and may actually bottom at 2.2710. Support firm up soon, as the general view still threatens a rise towards the 2.3000 target. If 2.3000 is taken out -- and we believe there is a good chance that the cross will eventually rise beyond it -- the next target may be 2.3400.



News, data, references and commentaries compiled from Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Dow-Jones, CBSMarketWatch, Briefing.com, and Economy.com



Saxo Bank A/S accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information here in contained nor for any forecasts or recommendations. Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that you will profit from the strategies herein or that your losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Stops may not necessarily limit losses to intended levels. Please read the full disclaimer at http://www.saxobank.com/?id=193&Lan=DA&Au=2&Grp=6

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



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