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European Market Update: Euro-Zone Retail Sales Fall Shy of Expectations *** ECONOMIC DATA ***
ยท UK Nov HBOS House Prices: M/M -1.1% v 0.0%e || Y/Y 6.3% v 6. 9%e
ยท SP Oct Industrial Output nsa: 4.7% v -1.3% prior || Prior revised from -1.3% to -1.1%
ยท SP Oct Industrial Output wda: 2.6% v 0. 6% prior || Prior revised from 0.6% to 0.8%
ยท SP Nov Services PMI: 50.7 v 52.4 prior
ยท IT Nov Services PMI: 50.8 v 53.7e
ยท FR Nov Services PMI: 59.2 v 56.8e
ยท GE Nov Services PMI: 53.1 v 53. 5e
ยท EU Nov Final Services PMI: 54.1 v 53.7e
ยท EU Nov Final Composite PMI: 54.1 v 53.8e
ยท EU Oct Retail Sales: M/M -0.7% v -0. 3%e || Prior revised form 0.3% to 0.2% |||| Y/Y 0.2% v 1.2%e || Prior revised from 1.6% to 1.5%
ยท *** SPEAKERS/COMMENTS ***
ยท There was a lack of comments from European officials overnight with the exception of one comment from the ECB's Trichet who noted that he would discuss policy ahead of this week's policy setting meeting.
ยท *** FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
ยท On the FX front the focus has been on the British Pound, which is trading lower on speculation that the Bank of England will follow the Bank of Canada's lead this week by cutting interest rates at their policy setting meeting, especially considering the recent compelling data for such actions. Overall there is a weaker Yen tone in the session as equities are firmer in Europe as the potential nationalization of Northern Rock has restored confidence, and increased risk appetite. The commodity currencies are weaker in the session despite higher oil prices following OPEC's decision to keep output unchanged. Commodity currencies are weaker due to a combination of continued fears about an economic slowdown, as well as OPEC's decision to hold a meeting in January, which falls ahead of what was set to be the next meeting in March.
ยท Fixed income futures are trading higher in the UK ahead of Thursday's rate announcement. Many market participants anticipate that the bank of England will cut interest rates due to softer economic data, continued credit jitters, the collapse of the interbank lending, and the continued rise in libor fixing rates. European fixed income futures are currently mixed, but are following an upward path after a weaker than expected reading on Euro-Zone retail sales data, as well as the overall market consensus that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates on hold this week despite the recent sharp spike in inflation.
ยท On the commodity front crude oil futures are trading higher in the session following OPEC's decision to leave output unchanged today. OPEC did say that they would hold a meeting on January 25 to discuss a possible output hike if deemed necessary. The January meeting falls before the next official meeting which is scheduled for March. Following OPEC's decision there were a series of comments from many of the participating country's oil ministers. Oil ministers reiterated much of the recent OPEC rhetoric saying that markets are well supplied, and that there is no need for an output hike at this time.
ยท On the data front the Euro-Zone service PMI figures indicated further expansion in the services sector during the month of November, however, with the exception of France, the services sector grew at a slower pace. The final reading on the overall Euro-Zone PMI figures for the month of November exceeded expectations, bolstered by the sharp rise in the French reading. HBOS house prices fell below estimates during November, with the M/M reading at its lowest level since December of 2002, seeming to confirm that the UK housing sector has began to cool down. Euro-Zone retail sales data fell below expectations and was accompanied by downward revisions to the previous month's figures. While the data did not greatly deviate from its average trend over the past few years, they lent upside momentum to interest rate futures ahead of this week's policy setting meeting.
ยท Looking ahead, with no major speakers scheduled today focus is likely to fall on economic data. Ahead of the equity market open the increasingly unreliable ADP employment change will be released along, as will final third-quarter readings for nonfarm productivity, and unit labor coasts. A greater part of the focus in the US is likely to fall upon factory orders and ISM non-manufacturing, both of which are due out at 10:00 ET. The key data events for the rest of the week will be both the BOE and ECB rate decisions tomorrow, and, of course, the non-farm payrolls data in the US on Friday.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 19 Mar 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Tue 20 Mar 2018
AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Mar 2018
AA 03:00 AU- Employment
AA 9:30 GB- Employment
A 12:30 US- Current Account
AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A A 18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision
A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision
Thu 22 Mar 2018
AA All Day flash PMIs
AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Mar 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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