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U.S. Market Update Dow +34 S&P +4.3 NASDAQ +12.9
- Ahead of the NY open equity
futures relinquished overnight gains on the back of a weak SSS outlook from
Target -7% and more downgrades in the financials. GS traded down as much
as $4 in the pre-market, but it rallied along with other financials right
from the open suggesting the recent sentiment change in the group is
holding. Mortgage and homebuilding names are higher ahead of this
afternoon's scheduled announcement from President Bush on a formal plan to
freeze certain mortgage rates. Oil service names are seeing some gains
after DO +3% was upgraded ahead of the open. Energy futures are in
positive territory led by front month natural gas, which has added 3% after
weekly inventory data. Relative weakness can be found in some of the big
pharma names after a WSJ article highlighted the difficulty many of these
companies are having replenishing their pipelines. PPH -0.4%. Treasury
prices are ticking lower pushing the 10-year yield back up to 3.97% ahead
of tomorrow's jobs data. Feb gold rallied more than $15 from this
morning's low when the Euro rebounded on some comments from the ECB's
Trichet that followed their decision to leave rates unchanged.
European interest rate decisions were the main catalyst regarding currency
trade today. The BOE unexpectedly lowered their rates by 25bp to 5.50%.
The ECB maintained their rates at 4.00%, as expected. The statements
following the rate decision for both the BOE and ECB sent the USD lower as
the European central banks echoed continued concern on inflationary
expectations. GBP covered from sessions lows following the 'hawkish'
statement. GBP/USD tested the 2.0170 19th month uptrend line before
retesting the 2.03 handle. March Gilts futures were briefly positive on
the news of the BOE rate cut, but fell over 70 ticks on the hawkish
inflation comments. The EUR/USD was trading at 1.4550 ahead of the ECB
rate decision and languished in the vicinity until the post-rate decision
press conference. During Q&A session, ECB's Trichet noted that the current
Inflation 'hump' would likely remain elevated for a longer period of time
than previously thought. Lastly, Trichet murmured that some members
actually sought a rate hike at today's meeting; but the 4.00% interest rate
level was decided as the rate necessary to ensure price stability at this
time. These hawkish statements sent Euro back above the 1.4630 level and
March Bund futures lower by 37 ticks to 115.21. The BGA Exporters assoc
stated that the Euro may exceed the 1.50 level in 2008 and that the concept
of a strong euro will not be short lived. The JPY was softer during the
session but remained contained in recent trading range ahead of the Q3
final GDP data for Japan. US Commercial Paper Outstanding at $1.844T v $1.
854T prior week, down $10B w/w - Fed DAX -0.1% at 7938; CAC40 higher by 0.
1% at 5663, FTSE off 0.2% at 6482
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Tue 19 June 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts
Wed 20 June 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 June 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 22 June 2018
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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