Friday December 7, 2007 - 04:11:14 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHF
||While 1.1248-53 supports we should see gains continue above 1.1352 and to 1.1400-36|
||Gains have continued though in a steady if unspectacular manner. Indeed, while the 1.1248-53 support continues to stall any losses the upside does still remain favored. We shall require a break back above 1.1308 which should maintain the upward move for 1.1330 & 1.1352. This may cause a small pullback but then follow-through to 1.1382 minimum and probably to the 1.1400-36 area which should cap for a larger pullback. |
||As we move higher we should become more cautious. Targets are at 1.1382 through to 1.1444 and we should be aware of the risk of reversal at any time. Above 1.1450 extends to 1.1523. (7th December)|
||The 1.1260-66 support has served well and may just get tested again. We should allow for 1.1248-53. Thus any bearish stance will really require a breach of the 1.1245 area and if seen would signal continued losses back to 1.1195-05 at least and where a small reaction could be seen. Breach implies stronger losses to 1.1153 and 1.1118 but by this lower area we should start to see some strength return. Further support is found at 1.1062.|
||The move up to 1.1324 isnâ€™t quite enough to break down the bearish potential â€“ that only comes on a break above 1.1372 Until then a move lower can still be seen though only below 1.0954 sees new lows. (5th December)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Fibonacci relationships havenâ€™t been too strong in this rally so it is a little confusing. It is therefore uncertain whether the 1.1324 high was the end of Wave â€“c- and therefore Wave (i) or whether we are just seeing a deep pullback in Wave iv to the 58.6% retracement at 1.1152.
If we see a Wave v develop from here then weâ€™ll be expecting a 61.8% projection at a minimum at 1.1389 and maximum at the 76.4% projection at 1.1444 which is also where Wave â€“c- has extended by 261.8%.
Any break below 1.1150 would then cause us to look for Wave (ii) to reach somewhere between the 50% retracement at 1.1104 and the 76.4% at 1.0987.
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