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Friday December 7, 2007 - 14:18:05 GMT

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Euro rose on ECB’s Trichet hawkish comments. BoE cuts rate to 5.50%.

News and Events:

The Euro rose against the Dollar and Yen on Thursday as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet's hawkish comments on inflation raised the view of an interest rate hike in the euro zone. The European currency also got a boost from an improvement in risk appetite, with US stocks ending higher after US President George W. Bush announced plans aimed at slowing the tide of homeowner foreclosures and shield the economy from the sub-prime mortgage crisis. An estimated 1.2 million homeowners could benefit from the assistance plan to avoid foreclosure over the next couple of years, according to Bush. The ECB left its benchmark interest rate steady at 4 percent, but Trichet warned of "strong upward pressure" on inflation, adding that some central bank governors had favored a rate increase. Before the ECB's rate decision, financial markets had expected the bank would not raise rates at all during 2008, with a significant minority forecasting a cut. Yesterday, EurUsd was trading up 0.42% at 1.4657, after touching a session high of 1.4657. EurJpy also rose 0.85% to 163.26. UsdJpy rose 0.41%to 111.37, lifted by firmer US stocks. But Dollar lost ground against the high-yielding Australian and New Zealand currencies. The Dollar, which had traded higher prior to the ECB rate verdict, was also held back as traders became cautious ahead of November's non-farm payrolls report on Friday, analysts said. The reading of the jobs data could determine whether the Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark overnight lending rate by just 25bp to 4.25% or by 50bp next Tuesday. The surprisingly stronger reading from the US ADP private sector jobs report buoyed the dollar on Wednesday and handed the Euro its biggest one-day drop since July 2006. GbpUsd ended unchanged at 2.0281, after hitting a fresh two-month low 2.0181 further to Bank of England cut rates by 25bp to 5.50%. The BoE cut follows a surprise easing from Canada on Tuesday, suggesting that the economic fallout from the US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the subsequent credit crunch is not limited to the United States.


Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):

09:30 NOK October Manufacturing Output -0.1% previous
12:00 CAD November Employment Change 10k vs 63k
13:30 USD November Non-Farm Payrolls 90k vs 166k
13:30 USD November Unemployment 4.8% vs 4.7%
15:00 USD December University of Michigan Confidence 75 vs 76.1
17:00 EUR ECB’s Trichet speaks at award ceremony, Hamburg

The Risk Today:

EurUsd Euro pulled back from Friday 23rd November record high 1.4967. Breaking down the 4-month Trendline support, it might return down to two weeks ago support on 1.4520. On the downside, only a return below 1.4500 and further drop to 1.4280 former resistance would threaten the last 4-month uptrend. This could open the way down toward 1.4000 nearby support and 1.4125 trendline support. Initial resistance holds 1.4723 former support.

GbpUsd Cable corrected Thursday down to 2.0181 testing the 2.0200 strong support. On the downside, renewed pressure might push below 2.0200 and toward 2.0000 psychological levels to complete the downtrend. On the upside, 2.0354 former support marks the resistance before 2.0833 Nov. 28th high. Initial resistance holds 2.0588 yesterday high.

UsdJpy Downtrend might have end with November. Last Friday break up 110 level had put 114 into focus. This may open the way toward 117.63 resistance. On the downtrend, supports hold 106.50 June 2005 low and 101.68 January 2005 low. Initial support holds 110. Initial resistance holds 111.46 yesterday high.

UsdChf Downtrend came to an end further to rebound on 1.0888 23rd November low. Market had found support on 1.1000 key level. Initial resistance holds 1.1353 yesterday high. It would also need a return over 1.1500 and 1.1640 level to relieve 6month bear threat. Initial support holds 1.1160 early week low.

Resistance and Support:

1.5000 K 2.0833 S 117.63 S 1.1640 T
1.4970 S 2.0588 M 114.00 P 1.1500 P
1.4723 M 2.0354 S 111.46 M 1.1353 M
1.4620 2.0235 111.25 1.1315
1.4520 M 2.0200 S 110.00 M 1.1160 M
1.4500 K 2.0181 M 107.50 K 1.1000 S
1.4280 S 2.0000 K 106.50 S 1.0888 K
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot


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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

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