Friday October 1, 2004 - 01:49:22 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 1st October 2004 Price: 109.95
Resistance: 110.15 ... 110.35 ... 110.70 ... 111.00
Support....: 109.80 ... 109.50 ... 109.35 ... 109.05
Expect a test of the 109.05-35 support
The decline below 109.35 has once again dented the underlying bullish view and we feel that we will need to see a dip to 109.03-35 before a more suitable bullish stance can be taken. Therefore, from 109.35 (stops below 109.00) or on an earlier break back above 110.35 we would look for recovery. Above 110.35 would see the next resistance at 110.65-75 and then 111.25.
Loss of 110.35 suggests we could see further losses with resistance at 110.25-35 likely to hold and allow a move down to test the 109.03-35 area. However, we feel this area should hold for now at least. Thus only below 108.75-00 would allow losses to accelerate with the next support at 108.00.
Elliott Wave Comments:
September 30th 2004
Once again we are having to re-appraise the wave structure and move back to the triangle scenario. This would lebel the peak at 111.71 the Wave (D) and what we are seeing is a Wave (E) which should form a low around 109.03-35. If this is correct then the resumption of the uptrend should be quite swift and a return to 111.25 would be the first move with a berak of 111.71 bringing further confirmation.
Any break below 109.03 would suggest a more complex triangle and a dip to 107-60-108.00 at least.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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