Monday December 10, 2007 - 13:20:26 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 10-Dec-2007....1211 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.1277/82....On a Support
R: 1.1340-50 / 1.1376
S: 1.1270 / 1.1230
USD-CHF dipped to a low of 1.1153 and then pulled back to close with little change last week, ahead of what would be a very important week for the pair. The US Fed, and the SNB, both declare their rates this week. While the US Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps, the SNB is expected to hold rates. USD-CHF has an important Resistance this week near 1.1340-50, on the trendline on the 4-hourly joining the highs of 1.1814 (15-Oct) and 1.1779 (22-Oct). A sustained move above that could result in a rally towards 1.1450. On the downside the Support would come in at 1.1150, dips towards which are expected to find buyers. We are bullish biased in the week.
For today the Resistance is at 1.1340-50, and a move above that could lead to 1.1376, the statistically projected Max High for the day. On the downside the Support is at 1.1270, on the trendline on the 4-Hourly joining the lows of 1.0954 (27-Nov) and 1.1153 (05-Dec). Below this the Support is at 1.1230, and dips are likely to find buyers.
See the US Fed and SNB rate charts along with their Libor rates at
US Fed: http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usfed.shtml
GBP-USD @ 2.0422/27....Sell a Rally
R: 2.0450 / 2.0480
S: 2.0350 / 2.0310
GBP-USD had a sharp fall last week on back of the BOE rate cut last week and it hit a low of 2.0180. Now that low would be an important low for the next few days, as that is the â€śbad news lowâ€ť for the pair. A break below that would indicate further sharp fall and further subsequent rate cuts in the UK. A break below that may not be seen this week. On the upside the Resistance would come in at 2.0480, on a trendline on the 4-hourly joining the highs of 2.0835 (28-Nov) and 2.0675 (12-Dec). A rally above this may not be seen this week.
GBP-USD has rallied a bit during the day and now immediate Resistance is at 2.0450. Above that the important Resistance is at 2.0480, mentioned above. On the downside the Support is at 2.0350 and then at 2.0310. We want to sell a rally.
UK Trade Balance for October would come out tomorrow. See chart at
Limit Sell Order:
Sell GBP 10K at 2.0460, SL 2.0520, TP Open
AUD-USD @ 0.8794/98...Resistance at 0.8873
R: 0.8820-25 / 0.8873
S: 0.8770 / 0.8730
AUD-USD dipped to low of 0.8660 before bouncing back to 0.8829 last week. It however still closed with moderate losses. The pair is currently ranged between 0.8860 and 0.8660 and a break of this range on a closing basis is required to give a sustainable direction either way. While within the range, the trading could be directionless and choppy. The Aussie Labour force data on Thursday would be important for the pair. See chart at http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/aulab.shtml
On the upside the immediate Resistance is at 0.8810-25, on the trendline on the 4-Hourly joining the highs of 0.9076 (14-Nov) and 0.8923 (28-Nov). Above that the Resistance is at 0.8873, the statistically projected Max High for the day. On the downside the Support is at 0.8770 and then at 0.8730, and a break below the latter is not expected today. We are holding a Long term Short position in the pair.
Holding (in Long-term book):
AUD 10K Short at 0.8724, SL 0.8860, TP 0.8500
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