User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday December 12, 2007 - 00:05:05 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - Is Bernanke the Grinch Who Stole Christmas?

  Tuesday, 11 December 2007 21:51:37 GMT

- Euro Hit by Continual Weakness in Investor Morale

- British Pound: More Weakness in Store?

Is Bernanke the Grinch Who Stole Christmas?

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp today, causing US stocks and carry trades to plummet and the dollar to strengthen significantly.  For the traders who were hoping for a larger 50bp rate cut and a strong stock market rally, Bernanke may be the Grinch that stole Christmas.  Minutes before the interest rate decision, stocks rallied indicating that more traders were adjusting their positions for the possibility of a larger rate cut.  Unfortunately, not only did the Fed fail to cut interest rates by 50bp, but they also only lowered the discount rate by the same amount (25bp).  The statement reeked on caution as the Fed acknowledged the slowdown in economic growth, the intensification of the housing market correction and the softening of business and consumer spending.  They still feel that inflation could rise, but the upside risks to inflation no longer balance the downside risks to growth.  This has caused Rosengren to vote in favor of a 50bp rate cut.  Last month’s decision was also not unanimous, but at that time, Hoenig voted in favor of leaving interest rates unchanged.  The probability of a recession is at the highest level in more than 3 years according to the latest WSJ.com survey.  No problems were solved with today’s quarter point rate cut and that is why fed fund futures are pricing in more easing in 2008.  The dollar could rally for the remainder of the week, but we expect weakness to resume as we get closer to the end of the year because the Fed won’t be able to avoid looser monetary policy.  Pimco’s Bill Gross is calling for 3 percent interest rates, which means that he expects another 125bp of easing. Wholesale inventories fell to the lowest level ever in relation to sales in the month of October.  The trade balance and import prices are due for release tomorrow.  We expect both numbers to be stronger as the weak dollar boosts import prices and exports. 

The Euro Currency Room has the latest Federal Reserve rate decision and what we expect in the coming months (bottom of page)

Euro Hit by Continual Weakness in Investor Morale

Analysts refuse to give up on their bearish outlook for the Eurozone economy.  The ZEW survey which measures investor morale dropped to the lowest level in 15 years as “financial experts” fear that rising credit costs will hurt the growth outlook for the region.   This comes at odds with the German IFO survey of business sentiment and the comments from the ECB who still see steady growth in the coming year.  Liquidity is definitely a problem as Euro LIBOR rates rose to their highest level in 7 years this morning.  If rates continue to rise, the ECB will be forced to keep rates unchanged and they could possibility inject another round of liquidity into the markets. Eurozone industrial production and the French current account are due for release tomorrow.  These reports are not expected to be market moving which means that the degree of follow through buying of US dollars will be the primary driver of currencies over the next 24 hours. 

Discuss the outloo for the EURUSD with our DailyFX Analysts in the DailyFX Forum

British Pound: More Weakness in Store?

The British pound reversed sharply ahead of the FOMC rate decision.  At the beginning of European trading, the British pound was doing well and appeared to be on its way to closing higher for the fourth straight trading session.  The UK trade deficit narrowed much more than the market expected as exports grew by 1.8 percent and imports eased 1.9 percent.  With industrial production firm and the export component of PMI increasing, stronger trader numbers were not a tough call.  Yet it is still surprising that given the high level of the British pound in the month of October, exports actually increased.  This is partly due to the continued demand from the Eurozone.  Over the past year, the pound has actually weakened 7 percent against the Euro.  Tomorrow we have UK employment numbers which could trigger more losses in the GBPUSD.  Employment is expected to be firm with jobless claims falling, but the drop in the employment components of service, construction and manufacturing PMI signal weakness.   

Australia, New Zealand Dollars Plummet on Carry Trade Weakness

The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars suffered greatly from the sharp reversal in the Dow and the sell-off in carry trades.  We only had minor data released from Australia and New Zealand last night.  Business confidence in Australia dropped as companies become more concerned about the ramification of recent interest rate hikes.  New Zealand terms of trade increased in the third quarter while the percentage of house sales improved; these numbers were not market moving.  Looking ahead, Australian consumer confidence is due for release along with the Canadian trade balance. The strong Canadian dollar should continue to hurt exports, which could lead to a smaller trade surplus.  USDCAD has been fluctuating in a tight range and the merchandise trade balance is the only piece of Canadian data that has the power to cause the currency pair to breakout.  For the Australian and New Zealand dollars, their currencies will be dependent upon the market’s appetite for risk.   

 Japanese Yen Crosses Dragged Lower by 294 Point Drop in the Dow

Japanese Yen crosses sold off significantly as the Dow reversed course following the FOMC rate decision.  The losses in US equities were sharp as the Dow closed near its intraday low.  This was the biggest move in stocks in close to two weeks and represents a major shift in trend.  The Yen will continue to rise and fall by the Dow and not Japanese economic data as disappointments fail to catch the market by surprise.  Last night, Japan reported the weakest level of consumer confidence in 4 years, but we already got a hint of this from the Eco Watchers survey which also deteriorated significantly.  Tonight we are expecting CGPI and the current account.  We expect these numbers to be Yen positive but the focus for traders should be the Nikkei and whether it follows the Dow lower. 

Could We See More Losses in Carry Trades?

daily121107daily121107_1

daily121107_2

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 11 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105