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Wednesday December 12, 2007 - 14:27:40 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
FOMC cuts rates 25 basis points to 4.25% as expected
FOMC cuts rates 25 basis points to 4.25% as expected
News and Events:
The news of the rate cut helped the US dollar gain against the Euro, but only temporarily, as the greenback gave back all of its gains early this morning. The accompanying statement has pointed to improved inflationary conditions however the housing market still weighing in on economic growth. Talk among traders signals falling confidence in Federal Reserve decisions as investors believe further rate cuts are in store.
Precious metals direction is undecided for now as the US dollar re-adjusts after the rate cut. Spot Gold and Silver have moved sideways for last three weeks but keeping in a bullish bias with the metals holding above $785 and $14.00 respectively. Expect range bound trading until the US dollar either breaks out or down.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
09:00 EUR Italian Labor Costs (QoQ) (3Q)
09:00 EUR Italian Labor Costs (YoY) (3Q)
09:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate (NOV) 2.6% vs. 2.6%
09:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change (NOV) -5.0K vs.-9.9K
09:30 GBP Average Earning inc. Bonus (3M/YoY) (OCT) 4.2% vs.4.1%
09:30 GBP Average Earning ex. Bonus (3M/YoY) (OCT) 3.7% vs.3.7%
09:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3Mths) (OCT) 5.4% vs.5.4%
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Unit Wage Cost (3Mths/YoY)
10:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (DEC)
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ) (3Q)
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Employment (YoY) (3Q)
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) 0.2% vs. -0.7%
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) 3.7% vs. 3.5%
12:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (DEC 7)
13:30 USD Trade Balance (OCT) -$57.4B vs. -$56.5B
13:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (NOV) 2.0% vs. 1.8%
13:30 USD Import Price Index (YoY) (NOV) 11.0% vs. 9.6%
13:30 CAD Int'l Merchandise Trade (OCT) C$2.2 vs. C$2.6
19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement (NOV) -95.0B vs. -73.0B
21:45 NZD Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT) 0.0% vs. 1.0%
21:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto (MoM) (OCT) 0.0% vs. 0.5%
The Risk Today:
EurUsd is moving back up after hitting the lower trend line of itâ€™s upward channel on December 6th. Although is has recently slipped from reaching the 50% retracement level of the recent down move, our target for now is 1.4770.
GbpUsd support holds strong at 2.0150 with a target and resistance at 2.0660. The current upward trend shows enough momentum for that move up.
UsdJpy is on a bounce after hitting a 12-year trend line support at 107.22. Should we break below this level again, this would be extremely bearish. Resistance at 112.20 and 114.75 holds firm.
UsdChf has crossed above itâ€™s daily 22-day moving average and finding support above 1.1180. Two daily closes below this level would confirm continuation of the downward trend. On the upside, nothing lies in the way until 1.1630.
Resistance and Support:
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot|
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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