Saturday October 2, 2004 - 22:56:27 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 4th October 2004 Price: 1.2410
Resistance: 1.2420 ... 1.2442 ... 1.2460 ... 1.2510
Support....: 1.2385 ... 1.2365 ... 1.2345 ... 1.2325
Possibly continuing the correction to 1.2345-65 but the main risk is still higher
As expected price moved lower to the 1.2360-85 support although there has been no confirmation of a return to the uptrend. Indeed, we feel that there is still chance today for a move to the 1.2345-65 area and while this holds, or on a direct break back above 1.2420-30, we look for the move higher to resume to rally above the 1.2460 high and onto 1.2510 at least and probably 1.2560. However we look for this higher area to hold and allow the downtrend to resume.
While we feel the greater longer term risk to be lower we feel we shall be patient to find the best selling opportunity. Today there is still a risk that while 1.2420-30 holds there is still room for a decline down to 1.2345-65. However, at this point we expect this to hold to allow gains back higher once again.
Elliott Wave Comments:
30th September 2004
The consolidation seen this week appears to be an irregular triangle pattern which should now break to the topside once through 1.2340. This will mean that Wave -v- or Wave (c) is underway and should occur in three waves, the first of which we anticipate will test the 1.2460 high at least - possibly 1.2505-10. However, after a brief correction we will expect this Wave -v- to rally to the 1.2560-65 Fibonacci projection target which also represents Wave (c) being 138.2% of Wave (a).
A peak at 1.2560-65 will complete a Triple Three from the 1.1758 low and as such should spurn a strong resumption of the dowtrend. This will imply a faily swift move to 1.1965-85 at least and probably all the way down to the 1.1758-70 lows.
October 4th 2004
The rally to 1.2440 was quite expected last week and we still feel this represents Wave -a- of Wave -v- and as such we are waiting for the end of Wave -b- before the final wave higher to complete Wave -c- and thus also Wave (c). There is Fibonacci & pivot support around 1.2350 and this area should provide the base for Wave -b- from where we look for a test of the ideal target at 1.2560. Lower resistance is at 1.2510.
Note that on completion of a new high above 1.2460 the wave structure from 1.1758 will have completed a Triple Three and this will normally provoke a sharp renewal of the downtrend.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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