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Monday October 4, 2004 - 10:13:08 GMT
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FOREX: US OPEN MARKET POINTS 10-04-04

G-7 Non-Event

The G-7 statement recycled almost verbatim the Boca Raton communiqué of 7 months ago as participants made no meaningful headway on either China’s CNY revaluation or containment of oil prices. Dealers viewed the G-7 outcome as particularly bearish for the JPY as it suffered a double hit as a result of this inaction. The yen will get no near term benefit from CNY revaluation -- which will remain fixed and will therefore stay low to the dollar -- nor any immediate relief from high oil prices. Furthermore, overnight economic data did little to encourage yen bulls as labor cash earnings reported a –0.2% decline year/year indicating that deflation and depressed wages remain a chronic problem for the Japanese economy.

Weak demand is evident in the Euro-zone as well where retail sales printed a disappointing –1.3% vs. 0.1% expected. The decline was led by a large cutback in food and beverages sales of –1.7% hinting that Euro-zone consumers may be feeling the pinch of higher oil and gasoline costs. The euro lost the 2400 earlier in the session and continued to trade downward after the release.

With only Factory Orders on the US calendar we expect little volatility from the trading day unless the slew of today’s scheduled Fed speakers make news with some controversial comments. However, with US election less than a month away and the race effectively a dead heat we believe the various Fed Governors and Presidents will remain circumspect in their remarks.




FX Spot Overnight

- EUR falls below 2400 as Retail data disappoints
- JPY nearly hits 111 as dealers view G-7 as yen bearish
- GBP suffers more selling from model funds but stabilizes after good CIPS data
- CHF absent news follows EUR/USD dynamics

Upcoming Events

14:00GMT – (10:00 AM EST) USD Factory Orders m/m (August) Expected at 0.1%, Previous 1.3%
12:00 GMT US Fed's Santomero speaks on Monetary Policy
12:30 GMT US Fed's Bernanke speaks on cross-border banking
14:30 GMT US Fed's Poole talks at Lincoln University
15:00 GMT US Fed's Bies speaks on international fin risks
16:00 GMT US Fed's Gramlich speaks on predatory lending

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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