Friday December 14, 2007 - 14:22:56 GMT
Share This Story
global-view.com - www.global-view.com
Global-View.com Monthly Forex Survey Analysis Courtesy Cumino
EUR USD 3 months: 1st day close 1.4717(1.4469), av. responses 1.4144(1.4563), Adjusted boundaries 1.45-1.50(1.43-1.48).
GVI 18%(60%) COMPONENTS: 70%24%6%(19%42%39%). DRY INDEX: 17%(77%).
Participants were 2/3 of usual so some caution is due. Anyway results are terrific.
This is the lowest GVI ever seen. Extremely bullish USD. DRY too is the lowest ever seen.
In short it is a one way view, substantially confirmed also by the reading of GVI-JPY and GVI-OIL and by some correlations.
EUR Bearish are 70% from 19%, EUR bullish are 6% from 39%, neutrals diminished 18%. DRY tumbled 60% from 77% to 17%. What happened? Letâ€™s compare some parameters with the previous reading. RTI (a composite measure of risk aversion) is even slightly lower (i.e. less risky) (VIX unchanged, EMBI and HY slightly higher, fx vols roughly unchanged, swaps slightly lower). Except for EMBI and HY all the other measures are descending from end November peaks. RR25d started to diminish just after first Nov week when EUR spot still was going higher. Now is on the 250d2stdev low boundary. Margin specs, from heavily overbought at end Nov, are roughly neutral now.
While Iâ€™m writing EUR is breaking some technical supports, so in short, the USD bullish view is right. Anyway from the Survey point of view this is a strong signal to sell USD on dips.
USD JPY 3 months: 1st day close 112.05(114.36), av. responses 112.08(113.94), Adjusted boundaries 108-113(110-115).
GVI: 63%(64%) COMPONENTS: 16%42%42%(57%36%7%). DRY INDEX: 61%(72%).
USD bullish in absolute, neutral in relative terms. Dry still high. Two high consecutive numbers are rare in GVI JPY. From the Survey point of view the reading is for JPY buying.
OIL 3 months: 1st day close 94.39(94.54), av. responses 88.06(94.06), Adjusted boundaries 89-99(90-100).
GVI:28%(46%)COMPONENTS:50%44%6%(20%68%12%).DRY INDEX: 23%(45%).
Very OIL bearish and another implicit USD bullish view. I would be very cautious.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."