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Friday December 14, 2007 - 18:30:08 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (14 December 2007)

The euro depreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4415 level and was capped around the $1.4655 level.  Stops were reached below the $1.4490 level, representing the 50% retracement of the move from $1.4015 to $1.4965.  Traders drove the common currency lower on stronger-than-expected U.S. November consumer price inflation data that saw headline CPI up 0.8% - above forecasts – while core CPI printed at +0.3%.  These data follow yesterday’s torrid producer price inflation data and collectively, they suggest the Federal Open Market Committee cannot declare inflation dead.  The FOMC next deliberates interest rates on 30-31 January and many traders believe the Fed will lower the fed funds target rate by another 25bps.  Other data released in the U.S. today saw November industrial production up 0.3% while capacity utilization gained 0.1% to close 81.5%.  In eurozone news, EMU-13 harmonized inflation was upwardly revised to 3.1% from 3.0%.  The European Commission called this a “clear matter of concern” and eurozone-wide inflation is now more than 50% above the ECB’s target ceiling rate of 2.0%.  ECB’s Mersch sees inflation at an elevated level “until the end of 2008.” Notably, German final November CPI was up 0.5% m/m and 3.1% y/y.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4355 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥113.40 level and was supported around the ¥112.20 level.  The pair rocketed higher to its strongest showing since 7 November and stops were hit above the ¥112.60 level, representing the 61.8% retracement of the move from ¥115.90 to ¥107.20.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the December quarterly tankan survey post disappointing results with the index of sentiment among large manufacturers fall to +19 from +23 in September, the first decline in three quarters.  This was also below forecasts and most traders believe Bank of Japan will not change interest rates next week when its Policy Board convenes.  The big question on traders’ minds is whether or not the central bank will downgrade its assessment of the economy in its monthly report.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.14% to close at ¥15,514.51.  Dollar bids are cited around the ¥110.70 level.  The euro came off vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥163.25 level and was capped around the ¥164.65 level.  The British pound and Swiss franc weakened vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥228.30 and ¥98.00 levels, respectively.  The Chinese yuan depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.3720 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 7.3692.  Data released in China today saw urban fixed-asset investment up 26.8% between January and November. 



The British pound weakened sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 2.0185 level and was capped around the $2.0445 level.  Technically, today’s intraday lows were right around the 76.4% retracement of the move from $1.9870 to $2.1160.  Bank of England MPC member Baker dovishly said the U.K. economy is not moving back to a high inflation environment and added “growth has been strong.” Most traders believe BoE’s MPC will continue lowering interest rates in 2008.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 2.0175 level.  The euro came off vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.7140 level and was capped around the ₤0.7175 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.1545 level and was supported around the CHF 1.1400 figure.  The pair has not been this strong since 5 November 2007 and stops were hit above the 38.2% retracement of the move from CHF 1.2475 to CHF 1.0885.  Swiss National Bank voted yesterday to keep interest rates unchanged for the first time in two years.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1680 level.  The euro and British pound came off vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.6630 and CHF 2.3245 levels, respectively.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
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