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Monday December 17, 2007 - 15:23:16 GMT

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The Dollar rallied against major currencies for the third consecutive week

News and Events:

The Dollar rose sharply on Friday, posting its largest daily increase against the Euro in almost three years, after strong US consumer price data trimmed expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Dollar rallied against major currencies for the third consecutive week, bolstered by a string of US economic reports showing higher-than-expected growth in consumer spending and higher inflation, though the data eased some concern that the credit crisis would drag the US economy into a recession. US Consumer Price Inflation rose to 4.3% for the November (YoY), its highest level since June 2006, while the core rate excluding volatile food and energy prices rose to 2.3% for the year, limiting the Fed's ability to cut interest rates in 2008. Since global credit market conditions worsened again in November, in a replay of the crisis that gripped investors in August, the dollar has staged a recovery. Hedge funds, corporate accounts, and institutional investors have all shifted their bets in favor of the Dollar and sold off the Euro since mid November. However, liquidity is thin given the approaching year end, exaggerating price action and making it unclear whether the Dollar can sustain a recovery into the New Year, traders said. Strategists believe US investors will repatriate their profits from abroad and seek relative safety in the depth of domestic markets. EurUsd fell 1.35% to 1.4430, the lowest since late October and largest daily fall since at least January 2005. AudUsd fell 1.98% to 0.8607 the lowest since late September. GbpUsd dropped 1.22% to 2.0176. The Fed cut its benchmark federal funds rate by 25bp to 4.25% on Tuesday, and together with other major central banks unveiled the next day a plan to inject liquidity into medium term money markets to ease the global credit crunch. Dollar, Euro and Sterling London Interbank offered rates (Libor) all fell on Friday for the second straight day following Wednesday's coordinated central bank liquidity plan.


Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):

08:15 CHF Q3 Industrial Orders 15.7% vs 11.7%
09:00 NOK Trade Balance previous 23.6B
09:00 EUR December Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing 52.3 vs 52.8
09:00 EUR December Euro-zone PMI Services 54 vs 54.1
09:00 EUR December Euro-zone PMI Composite 53.7 vs 54.1
10:00 EUR December Germany ZEW economic sentiment -34 vs -32.5
13:30 USD Q3 Current Account $-183.8B vs -190.7B
13:30 USD December NY Fed manufacturing 20 vs 27.37
13:30 CAD October Intl Securities transactions CAD -1B vs -5.2B
18:00 USD December NAHB Housing Market Index 19 vs 19
00:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Policy meeting minutes
02:00 NZD December NBNZ Business Confidence

The Risk Today:

EurUsd Euro pulled back from Friday 23rd November record high 1.4967. It broke the three weeks support 1.4520 on Friday. On the downside, the return below 1.4500 open the way toward 1.4280 former resistance. This could put into focus 1.4000 nearby support and 1.4125 trendline support. Initial resistance holds 1.4520 former support.

GbpUsd Cable corrected Friday down to 2.0147 and breaking down the 2.0200 strong support. GbpUsd ended down 1.22% to 2.0176. On the downside, confirmation below 2.0200 might drive toward 2.0000 psychological levels to complete the downtrend. On the upside, 2.0200 former support marks the initial resistance before 2.0577 Dec 12th high.

UsdJpy Uptrend started end November went through 113.61 on Friday. This recent move up put 114 into focus. Further strength may open the way toward 117.63 resistance. On the downtrend, initial support holds 110, before 107.22 trend November 26th low. Initial resistance holds 113.61 Friday high.

UsdChf Uptrend from 1.0888 23rd November low remains strong. Market had found support on 1.1327 end November high. Initial resistance holds 1.1547 Friday high. It would also need a return over 1.1640 level to relieve 6 months bear threat. Initial support holds 1.1402 Friday low.

Resistance and Support:

1.5000 K 2.0833 S 117.63 S 1.1895 T
1.4967 S 2.0577 M 114.00 P 1.1640 T
1.4520 S 2.0200 M 113.61 M 1.1547 M
1.4375 2.0130 113.20 1.1545
1.4280 S 2.0000 K 112.29 M 1.1402 M
1.4125 T 2.0181 M 110.00 S 1.1000 S
1.4000 S 1.9879 S 107.22 T 1.0888 K
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 19 Mar 2018
Tue 20 Mar 2018
AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Mar 2018
AA 03:00 AU- Employment
AA 9:30 GB- Employment
A 12:30 US- Current Account
AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
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A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision
Thu 22 Mar 2018
AA All Day flash PMIs
AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Mar 2018
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A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales

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