User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday December 17, 2007 - 20:08:33 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank -

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Research - Westpac Institutional Bank - Morning Report

Morning Report  Tuesday 18 December 2007

News and views
New Zealand dollar continued the sharp losses seen on Friday night, though this time it was almost alone among the major currencies. The NZD began a tentative recovery yesterday, but came under pressure again later in the day as Asian equity markets opened weaker. The upward trendline from the August lows was breached around 0.7830, triggering a fresh wave of selling. NZD eventually bottomed out at 0.7525, but continued to face steady selling early this morning. Further stops are rumoured around 0.7500, which would open the way for a move back towards the previous lows around 0.7440.

The Australian dollar also began the overnight session weaker, but found a base in the New York session. The AUD was hit by a reminder of how the credit squeeze has spread: shares in Centro Group, an owner of 700 US malls, fell 73% after they issued a profit warning and said that they are having difficulty in refinancing $1.3bn of debt. AUD fell as low as 0.8550 before stabilising in a lacklustre offshore session.

US data had little impact on the major currencies. The US current account deficit was $178bn in the September quarter, slightly smaller than expected. The Empire manufacturing survey was weaker than expected at 10.3 in December, but regional surveys are not a good leading indicator for the broader ISM survey.

US TIC data for October showed stronger than expected foreign demand for US Treasuries, corporate bonds and equities. We suspect that this pickup in demand for US assets will prove to be short-lived, as risky assets did well in October but credit concerns reared their ugly head again in November.

The Fed’s term funding auction was held overnight, but a summary of the results will not be published until Wednesday. So it remains to be seen how effective this measure will be in easing liquidity pressures over year-end.

Volatility over the Christmas period and a softer tone to recent economic data are likely to keep the NZD under pressure in the short term. Recent market movements are the flipside of the ‘hope’ trade: it was the hope of sharply lower interest rates that supported asset values in the early part of this month, and with uncomfortably strong US inflation figures last week, those hopes have been scaled back.

After the stronger US data last week, our data surprise index has flicked over to a ‘buy USD’ signal for the next three weeks. The normally positive relationship between US data surprises and the US dollar appears to be reasserting itself, whereas in the earlier stages of the credit crunch, better US data instead meant an improvement in risk appetite and a rush back into carry trades. There’s also a strong seasonal bias to US data surprises, with releases in the last few weeks of the calendar year consistently beating forecasts, which supports our view of more USD gains to come.

We’ve maintained for some time that the New Zealand economy would hit a soft patch in the second half of the year, and this week’s data on balance is likely to reflect that. Today we have business confidence at 3pm – a higher currency and dashed hopes of early rate cuts suggest that confidence could tick lower again. There’s also the Government’s half-year fiscal and economic update – stronger revenues will leave plenty of scope to foreshadow tax cuts and spending initiatives, though we expect that details will be thin on the ground.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast

NZ NZ Govt Operating Surplus NZDbn 8.7 8.0
Dec NBNZ Business Confidence –19.6% n/f
Aus Q4 WBC-ACCI Survey of Indust Trends 56.4 n/f
Dec RBA Policy Meeting Minutes
Nov Merchandise Imports AUDbn 17.4 n/f

US Nov Housing Starts 3.0% –7.0%
Nov Housing Permits –7.2% –4.0%
Eur Oct Trade Balance €bn 3.9 3.0

UK Nov CPI %yr 2.1% 2.4%
Can Nov CPI %yr 2.4% 2.5%
Nov CPI BoC Core %yr 1.8% 1.7%
Nov Leading Index 0.1% 0.1%

Latest Research Papers/Publications
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (17 December)
NZ Q3 GDP Preview (14 December)
• NZ Q3 Current Account Preview (13 December)
• NZ HYEFU Preview (13 December)
• NZ Q3 Terms of Trade (11 December)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Bank’s website (

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105