Tuesday December 18, 2007 - 03:51:21 GMT
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Daily Analysis for GBPUSD
||Mixed â€“ waiting for breaks but with an underlying bearish view|
||The upside was much shallower than expected yesterday with losses falling between targets with a base at the 2.0100 support. From there we have seen a rally back above yesterdayâ€™s high. Itâ€™s rather a strange pattern so weâ€™ll take this in stages. If we are to see gains we clearly first need a move above 2.0227. If seen this should allow gains back towards 2.0254 and probably 2.0276. Care this could cap but there is further close resistance at 2.0291-00 which I canâ€™t see breaking. Next resistance is then at 2.0345-86.|
||The downside looks strong now. Only a move back above 2.0340-50 would provide relief for gains to move back towards 2.0446-62 and probably as far as 2.0525-50. (17th December)|
||Iâ€™m not too sure what to make of the 2.0100 low. I want to retain a more bearish stance but it may be best to wait for confirmation. It would help if the 2.0227 high remains intact and then see losses below the 2.0185 pivot area which would allow a step lower to 2.0140-50 and then back towards yesterdayâ€™s 2.0100 low. Care in case we see a pullback from there again. Below extends to 2.0050 and probably 2.0023-31. |
||Loss have resumed already and while 2.0293-20 caps I still feel there is room for losses to 2.0023 minimum but suspect potential for 1.9877 minimum and possibly much lower â€“ min 1.9714. (17th December)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
I am cautiously beginning to feel that the downside is quite bearish. The peak in Wave (b) at 2.0831 looks to have caused losses to 2.0178 in Wave â€“i-, a 58.6% correction to 2.0562 in Wave â€“ii- and thus we are looking for possible targets on the downside.
The first is at the prior daily Wave (b) low at 1.9877 but I suspect this will go further.
A wave equality target in Wave (c) is at 2.0023, but this seems too short. A 138.2% projection is at 1.9714 and a 161.8% projection at 1.9524.
A 138.2% projection in Wave â€“iii- of Wave (c) is at 1.9660 and I suspect we are in the process of mapping out Wave â€“a- of Wave â€“iii- only.
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