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Tuesday October 5, 2004 - 18:25:51 GMT
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DOLLAR REMAINS FIRM DESPITE WEAK US DATA

The Dollar remained strong against the Jpy but slid against Euro after the release of ISM services index that sank from an expected 59.5 to 56.7 in September. The Euro after putting in lows of 1.2265 overnight managed to grind higher on the back of Euro/Gbp buying. Dollar/Jpy shook off the bad data out of Washington and took out short term stops above 111.00/05 and ran into a pocket of liquidity111.30/35 just below Japanese sell orders that are supposed to be lingering at 111.50 for exporters. Record high oil prices have weighed heavily on Jpy in the New York trading session. Euro on the other hand ran into the same liquidity near 1.2320/30 where profit taking was seen by the same spec accounts that bought yesterday and overnight at 1.2255/65. Itís worth mentioning that after Aud/Usd that failed to break down yesterday with Euro maintained its strength and put in a high in the N.Y session of .7250/55. Tomorrow there is no U.S data out but traders are looking to Fridays Non Farm Payroll number at 8:30 EST to stir the currency markets up.



TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Dollar/Jpy is forming a pennant on a 60 minute chart between the 12pm/1pm low of 111.10 and the 11am/12pm high of 111.32. This formation usually tends to exit in the same direction it entered. The Relative Strength Index is a positive 57.89 reading. There is trend line support seen in the near term at 110.90/111.00 and resistance at 111.50.



GAIN AN EDGE

We look to buy Dollar/Jpy at current levels and add to the position at 110.80/90 with a stop below 110.50 and a take profit of 112.05

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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