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Wednesday December 19, 2007 - 12:00:00 GMT
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European Market Update: Minutes Show that the BOE Voted Unanimously to Cut in December

European Market Update: Minutes Show that the BOE Voted Unanimously to Cut in December


· GE Nov Producer Prices: M/M 0.8% v 0.4%e || Y/Y 2.5% v 2.1%e

· GE Dec IFO Business Climate: 103.0 v 103. 8e

· GE Dec IFO Current Assessment: 108.1 v 109.9e

· GE Dec IFO Expectations: 98.2 v 98.0e

· IT Oct Industrial Orders; M/M -1.1% v -0.7%e || Y/Y 8.4% v 4.8%e

· IT Oct Industrial Sales: M/M -0.5% v 1.1%e || Y/Y 6.6% v 2.3% prior

· SW Riksbank keeps rates on hold at 4.00% as expected

· BOE Minutes: BOE voted 9-0 to cut rates on December 6


· Riksbank: sees repo at a quarterly average of 4.1% in Q1, 4.2% in Q2, and 4.3% in Q3 & Q4

· Riksbank: Inflation to continue to rise over the coming years

· ECB Trichet: Euro zone fundamentals remain sound

· ECB Tricht: price risks remain pointed upward

· ECB Trichet: Says oil and food prices are of concern

· ECB Trichet: Sees inflation above 2% in near term

· ECB Trichet: Sees only slight moderation in inflation in 2008

· ECB Trichet: Some signs of GDP moderation in Q4

· ECB Trichet: Reiterates that ECB will act as necessary to counter inflation risks

· IFO Sinn: Expectations for 2008 moderate due to US crisis

· IFO Sinn: World economic growth dynamic is declining

· IFO Sinn: Sees 50% chance that US could enter recession within 2 years

· IFO Sinn: German inflation to slow to average 2.3% In 2008

· IFO Russ: ECB should maintain rates at current level, should lower interest rates in H2 2008

· IFO Russ: Retail sector is worst that it has been in over 2 years

· BOE Minutes: Saw downside risks to growth

· BOE Minutes: Recent data gave further signs of slowing economy

· BOE Minutes: Housing slowdown more pronounced than expected

· BOE Minutes: Financial market conditions had deteriorated more

· BOE Minutes: Weaker Sterling raised import price pressures

· BOE Minutes: Further asset price drops pose downside risks


· On the commodity front crude oil futures are trading lower in the session. Total announced overnight that the strike, which was affecting five of its refineries, ended. Total noted that production had returned to normal levels. Credit Suisse boosted its long-term WTI average oil price forecast by $5 to $65/barrel. Credit Suisse also boosted its forecast for Q1 2008 by $10 to $80/barrel.

· On the fixed income front long-gilt futures are trading higher in the session following the Bank of England minutes from the December 5/6 meeting. Minutes showed a unanimous vote for the December rate cut, the first unanimous vote for a cut since 2001. Similarly, European fixed income futures are trading higher following a slightly weaker than expected reading on the German IFO data for the month of December.

· On the data front German producer prices were higher than expected boosted by energy prices. Although above estimates producer prices were not out of line with their recent trend. German IFO data was slightly weaker than expected, but remain strong according to IFO economists. As expected Riksbank kept rates on hold. The Bank of England minutes unexpectedly showed that the December vote was unanimous. Market participants were anticipating a split of either 7-2 or 6-3.

· On the speaker front the ECB's Trichet was slightly more hawkish that he has been in recent months in his testimony to the EU. The shocker however was the BOE with it's unanimous vote and the minutes which showed a highly dovish view, highlighting the concern of the current liquidity crisis at the year end.

· In currency trading the Yen is currently firmer on the back of softer equity markets, which are low as the unanimous BOE vote seemed to underscore the seriousness of the financial market turmoil. The Euro is slightly lower in the session following the weaker than expected IFO data, but gained some support from comments made by the ECB's Trichet.

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