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Wednesday December 19, 2007 - 13:19:30 GMT
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GVI Forex Blog- Preview BOJ Policy Decision
GVI BOJ Policy Meeting Preview
- Decision: December 20
- Current Overnight Target Rate: 0.50%
- Expected decision: No change.
- Despite a lot of empty bluster by the central bank, no increase in rates is likely from the BOJ anytime soon. This is especically true following the recent release of a weaker than expected quarterly Tankan survey. See below that core and headline CPI remain mildly deflationary. The political situation also is in flux. Despite official talk about policy "normalization" a move to higher rates is unlikely in 1H08, and would probably be ill-advised. The markets have been adjusting down the odds of future hikes. Note at the bottom of this page that the Nikkei has turned more negative in its outlook for earnings.
BANK OF JAPAN Policy Objective: The Bank of Japan Law states that the Bank's monetary policy should be "aimed at, through the pursuit of price stability, contributing to the sound development of the national economy."
The chart above shows year/year core nationwide CPI and the reported BOJ goal of between 0% and 2% for this price index.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current BOJ overnight rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Japanese interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the Japanese overnight rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
The chart above shows the Nikkei Stock index (in blue) against the value of USD/JPY.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 19 Mar 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Tue 20 Mar 2018
AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Mar 2018
AA 03:00 AU- Employment
AA 9:30 GB- Employment
A 12:30 US- Current Account
AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A A 18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision
A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision
Thu 22 Mar 2018
AA All Day flash PMIs
AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Mar 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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