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Wednesday December 19, 2007 - 13:19:30 GMT
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GVI Forex Blog- Preview BOJ Policy Decision
GVI BOJ Policy Meeting Preview
- Decision: December 20
- Current Overnight Target Rate: 0.50%
- Expected decision: No change.
- Despite a lot of empty bluster by the central bank, no increase in rates is likely from the BOJ anytime soon. This is especically true following the recent release of a weaker than expected quarterly Tankan survey. See below that core and headline CPI remain mildly deflationary. The political situation also is in flux. Despite official talk about policy "normalization" a move to higher rates is unlikely in 1H08, and would probably be ill-advised. The markets have been adjusting down the odds of future hikes. Note at the bottom of this page that the Nikkei has turned more negative in its outlook for earnings.
BANK OF JAPAN Policy Objective: The Bank of Japan Law states that the Bank's monetary policy should be "aimed at, through the pursuit of price stability, contributing to the sound development of the national economy."
The chart above shows year/year core nationwide CPI and the reported BOJ goal of between 0% and 2% for this price index.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current BOJ overnight rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Japanese interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the Japanese overnight rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
The chart above shows the Nikkei Stock index (in blue) against the value of USD/JPY.
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Tue 17 July 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
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Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
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