User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday December 19, 2007 - 19:28:42 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank -

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Research - Morning Report

Morning Report   Thursday 20 December 2007

News and views
New Zealand dollar had another choppy night, but remained within yesterday’s ranges. A more positive tone in the Asian session took the NZD up to 0.7580, but it was unable to build on those gains. The currency was unmoved by the Westpac McDermott Miller consumer confidence index, which fell to 110.0 in September, the lowest level since June 2006. Consumers’ confidence about their own finances was broadly unchanged, but optimism about the longer-term outlook fell sharply, thanks to a deluge of bad economic news, both international and local, in recent months.

The Australian dollar was relatively steady for most of the night, but a poor day for US equities saw the AUD drop sharply against the US dollar. Unusually, the NZD resisted much of this move, which saw the NZD/AUD cross recover to 0.8810.

US equities again faded after a solid start, dragging carry currencies lower. Morgan Stanley reported a loss of $3.56bn for the quarter, much worse than forecast, after a $9.4bn write-down on mortgage-related investments. S&P heavily downgraded one US bond insurer and put six others on a negative outlook. The results of the Fed’s term funding auction suggested good but not desperate demand for funding over year-end. The ECB also chimed in, this time to remove €150bn of overnight cash from the banking system, as it has been trading at below the 4% policy rate recently. Fed funds expectations and Treasury yields initially rose after the positive outcome of the auction, but turned sharply lower again as the bad corporate news mounted.

The pound fell below 2.00 on further evidence that the slowdown in the UK economy is becoming entrenched. The UK CBI retail survey fell to its lowest level for the year, and even weaker expectations for January sales (–5 from 11 in Dec) reflect what is apparently a disappointing Christmas shopping season.

The minutes to the December Bank of England monetary policy committee
revealed a surprise 9:0 unanimous vote in favour of the 25bp rate cut. Market speculation had centred round a 5:4 or 6:3 split. The committee concluded that worsening financial market turmoil had increased the downside risks to both activity and inflation in the medium term. However, a large (50bp) cut now would increase inflation risks. So a 25bp rate cut was agreed. The minutes noted that with the level of interest rates already restrictive, the Committee could act pre-emptively to reduce the risks from tightening credit conditions without losing inflation credibility. Reflecting this unanimity, we now expect that the BoE will cut rates again, by February if not in January.

The German Ifo index fell to 103.0 in Dec, led by a particularly steep fall in the current conditions index. Earlier this year it was expectations that were falling sharply; now it may be the case that businessmen’s assessment of actual conditions in the economy is catching up with that pessimism about the outlook. The Ifo is calling for the ECB to begin trimming interest rates in the second half of next year. Despite this, ECB chief Trichet reiterated his hawkish stance in testimony to the EU parliament, emphasising that inflation risks still dominated his thinking. Inflation indicators continue to accelerate in Europe, the latest being German producer prices, up 2.5% yr in Nov.

Currency markets are likely to remain thin and choppy, with traders starting to down tools for the Christmas period. There is still a great deal of uncertainty about how the funding squeeze will pan out over year-end, and indeed whether it will ease at all after this period. This uncertainty is likely to cap enthusiasm for the NZ dollar in the near term.

The heavy data calendar continues today with the Q3 current account deficit. We expect no more than a small improvement as a percentage of GDP, from 8.2% to 8.1%. More marked improvements should come over the next couple of quarters as more dairy cash feeds through. Tomorrow brings the key GDP figures, where both we and the market expect a 0.4% gain. We’ve maintained for some time that the New Zealand economy would hit a soft patch in the second half of the year, and this week’s data has so far been consistent with that view.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast

NZ Q3 Current Account NZDmn s.a. -3,411 -3,265
Aus Dec RBA Bulletin

US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 15/12 333k 335k
Q3 GDP % ann’lsd (F) 4.9% a 4.9%
Nov Leading Index –0.5% –0.3%
Philadelphia Fed Index 8.2 5.0
Jpn Nov Trade Balance ¥bn 1073 967
Bank of
Japan Meeting 0.50% 0.50%
Ger Jan GfK Consumer Confidence 4.3 4.0

UK Q3 GDP (F) 0.7% a 0.6%
Q3 Current Account Balance £bn –9.1 –11.4
Nov PSNCR £bn –4.8 8.0
M4 Money Supply %yr 11.8% 11.6%

Latest Research Papers/Publications
• NZ Q4 Consumer Confidence (20 December)
• NZ 2007/08 HYEFU Review (18 December)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (17 December)
• NZ Q3 GDP Preview (14 December)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Bank’s website (

stralian Dollar

New Zealand Dollar

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105