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Wednesday October 6, 2004 - 07:19:49 GMT
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Daily Forex Trading Strategies by John Hardy at Saxo Bank

EUR/JPY may be heading higher as global growth seen threatened by higher oil prices.

Mixed news on job reports past and potential for job reports present has market gathering energy for a big move in USD majors.



NOTE: I'm filling in for Mr. Robert Balan. He will return to this column soon.

October 6, 2004 - Europe


Economic Data Today:

08:30 GMT - UK Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Aug)
10:00 GMT - Germany Factory Orders
12:30 GMT - UK NIESR GDP Estimate (Sep)
12:30 GMT - Canada Building Permits (Aug)
14:00 GMT - Canada Ivey PMI (Sep)
14:30 GMT - US Weekly Crude Oil Inventories


Market Commentary

Yesterday saw rangebound action in most currency pairs as oil pushed to a new record high above $51 before falling back overnight. Despite the fact that Japan is by far the most efficient user of oil among the highly industrialize countries, higher oil prices seem to weigh heaviest on the JPY. Perhaps this makes sense anyway, however, as the JPY is seen as the currency to invest in for global economic growth and there's nothing that taxes global growth rates like runaway oil prices.

Unfortunately, my technical signals and fundamental instincts are at completely at odds at the moment on the USD supermajors, with technicals calling for a lower EUR/USD, for example, when I still want to see it higher. Around the edges, however, there are some very interesting signs that could indicate USD weakness ahead. AUD/USD looks very resilient and USD/CAD performed a spectacular nosedive yesterday (likely on oil prices due to the balance of payment implications as Canada is big exporter of energy to US). Most interestingly, silver and gold are going completely ballistic, and the gold price seems to be breaking free of its normal USD correlation. This could be extremely significant for the gold market, as gold has in the past moved virtually in lock step with the dollar index. In any case, if these metals are moving on inflation fears, the USD will perform poorly in an inflationary environment unless rates are raised dramatically compared to other central banks.

Perhaps one of the reasons for the inability of the USD to weaken across the board are all the rumblings about a huge upward revision to past jobs reports that were unbelievably enough generated by the White House, which appears to be privy to this report before its official relief - otherwise they wouldn't have said anything about it. Hard to fathom that the Bush team would trumpet about the possibilities before the actual release. And of course, revisions of old numbers say nothing about what the Nonfarm payrolls number will be this Friday - so the risk is that we have a hard time breaking out of the range before Friday. A possible predictor of a poor number on Friday was yesterday's release by Challenger, Gray & Christmas of its job cuts report for September, which showed a massive leap in the number of job cuts by large employers for September and a concomitant fall in recruiting levels.


Technicals:

GBP/USD: is extremely oversold, but the EUR/GBP chart looks very strong, so GBP/USD could still underperform in a USD sell-off. A break back below 1.7800 could entail a further sell-off to 1.7700. 1.7920/50 area is resistance. I prefer the upside.

EUR/USD: Yesterday's lows in the mid-1.2200's are support and EUR/USD doesn't turn decidedly bullish until it takes out the 1.2350/60 area on a strong rally. I still prefer the upside, with tight stops.

AUD/USD: Looks very strong on the commodity theme. Now has clearly defined support just below 0.7200. May be on the path to a try at the 0.7350 high.

EUR/JPY: Looks very strong if it can stay above 136.25. There's loads of overhead resistance with the multiple tops between 137.50 and the old one at 141.00, but EUR/JPY may be on the road to all time highs if global growth clearly begins to slow.

John J. Hardy

================================



Saxo Bank A/S accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information here in contained nor for any forecasts or recommendations. Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that you will profit from the strategies herein or that your losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Stops may not necessarily limit losses to intended levels. Please read the full disclaimer at http://www.saxobank.com/?id=193&Lan=DA&Au=2&Grp=6

 

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15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
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