User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday October 6, 2004 - 07:19:49 GMT
Saxo Bank -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Daily Forex Trading Strategies by John Hardy at Saxo Bank

EUR/JPY may be heading higher as global growth seen threatened by higher oil prices.

Mixed news on job reports past and potential for job reports present has market gathering energy for a big move in USD majors.

NOTE: I'm filling in for Mr. Robert Balan. He will return to this column soon.

October 6, 2004 - Europe

Economic Data Today:

08:30 GMT - UK Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Aug)
10:00 GMT - Germany Factory Orders
12:30 GMT - UK NIESR GDP Estimate (Sep)
12:30 GMT - Canada Building Permits (Aug)
14:00 GMT - Canada Ivey PMI (Sep)
14:30 GMT - US Weekly Crude Oil Inventories

Market Commentary

Yesterday saw rangebound action in most currency pairs as oil pushed to a new record high above $51 before falling back overnight. Despite the fact that Japan is by far the most efficient user of oil among the highly industrialize countries, higher oil prices seem to weigh heaviest on the JPY. Perhaps this makes sense anyway, however, as the JPY is seen as the currency to invest in for global economic growth and there's nothing that taxes global growth rates like runaway oil prices.

Unfortunately, my technical signals and fundamental instincts are at completely at odds at the moment on the USD supermajors, with technicals calling for a lower EUR/USD, for example, when I still want to see it higher. Around the edges, however, there are some very interesting signs that could indicate USD weakness ahead. AUD/USD looks very resilient and USD/CAD performed a spectacular nosedive yesterday (likely on oil prices due to the balance of payment implications as Canada is big exporter of energy to US). Most interestingly, silver and gold are going completely ballistic, and the gold price seems to be breaking free of its normal USD correlation. This could be extremely significant for the gold market, as gold has in the past moved virtually in lock step with the dollar index. In any case, if these metals are moving on inflation fears, the USD will perform poorly in an inflationary environment unless rates are raised dramatically compared to other central banks.

Perhaps one of the reasons for the inability of the USD to weaken across the board are all the rumblings about a huge upward revision to past jobs reports that were unbelievably enough generated by the White House, which appears to be privy to this report before its official relief - otherwise they wouldn't have said anything about it. Hard to fathom that the Bush team would trumpet about the possibilities before the actual release. And of course, revisions of old numbers say nothing about what the Nonfarm payrolls number will be this Friday - so the risk is that we have a hard time breaking out of the range before Friday. A possible predictor of a poor number on Friday was yesterday's release by Challenger, Gray & Christmas of its job cuts report for September, which showed a massive leap in the number of job cuts by large employers for September and a concomitant fall in recruiting levels.


GBP/USD: is extremely oversold, but the EUR/GBP chart looks very strong, so GBP/USD could still underperform in a USD sell-off. A break back below 1.7800 could entail a further sell-off to 1.7700. 1.7920/50 area is resistance. I prefer the upside.

EUR/USD: Yesterday's lows in the mid-1.2200's are support and EUR/USD doesn't turn decidedly bullish until it takes out the 1.2350/60 area on a strong rally. I still prefer the upside, with tight stops.

AUD/USD: Looks very strong on the commodity theme. Now has clearly defined support just below 0.7200. May be on the path to a try at the 0.7350 high.

EUR/JPY: Looks very strong if it can stay above 136.25. There's loads of overhead resistance with the multiple tops between 137.50 and the old one at 141.00, but EUR/JPY may be on the road to all time highs if global growth clearly begins to slow.

John J. Hardy


Saxo Bank A/S accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information here in contained nor for any forecasts or recommendations. Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that you will profit from the strategies herein or that your losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Stops may not necessarily limit losses to intended levels. Please read the full disclaimer at


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105