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European Market Update: Final Q3 GDP Revised Higher in the UK
Â· *** ECONOMIC DATA ***
Â· GE Jan
GfK Consumer Confidence: 4.5 v 4.0e || Prior revised from 4.3 to 4.
Â· SZ Nov Trade Balance (chf): 1.89B v 1.44Be || Prior revised from
1.56B to 1.40B
Â· SZ Nov Producer & Import Prices: M/M 0.3% v 0.2%e
|| Y/Y 3.0% v 2.9%e
Â· IT Dec Consumer Confidence: 107.0 v 107.
Â· IT Q3 Unemployment Rate: 5.9% v 5.9%e
Â· IT Oct Retail
Sales: M/M 0.4% v 0.2% || Prior revised from -0.2% to -0.1% |||| Y/Y 2.3% v
Â· IC Icelandic Central Bank keeps rates on hold at 13.75% as
Â· UK Q3 Final GDP: Q/Q 0.7% v 0.7%e || Y/Y 3.3% v 3.
Â· UK Q3 Current Account: -Â£20.0B v -Â£11.4Be || Prior revised
from -Â£9.1B to -Â£13.7B
Â· UK Nov Public Finances: Â£8.9B v Â£8.
Â· UK Nov Public Sector Net Borrowing: Â£11.2B v Â£10.0Be || Prior
revised from -Â£1.0B to -Â£400M
Â· UK Nov Preliminary M4 Money Supply:
M/M 0.1% v 0.4%e || Y/Y 11.1% v 11.6%r
Â· UK Nov Preliminary M4
Sterling Lending: Â£16.7B v Â£15.7Be || Prior revised from Â£19.2B to Â£19.
Â· UK Nov BSA Mortgage Approvals: Â£4.53B || Prior revised from Â£3.
98B to Â£4.22B
Â· *** SPEAKERS/COMMENTS ***
Â· Swiss Government
raises 2007 economic growth forecast from 2.6% to 2.8%
2008 economic growth forecast unchanged at 1.9%
Â· Leaves 2009
economic growth forecast unchanged at 1.7%
Â· INSEE: French GDP seen
at +0.5% in Q4 and Q1
Â· INSEE: French GDP seen at +0.4% in Q2
Â· INSEE: ECB likely to keep rates unchanged in the short-term
Â· INSEE: Inflation is seen peaking at 2.8% in Feb 2008 and easing
to 2.4% by the end of June
Â· UK RICS: UK house prices broadly
unchanged through 2008
Â· UK RICS Chief Economist: 2008 will be a
difficult year for the housing market, but with falls likely in the base
rate, the housing market should be provided with a stable platform.
Â· GE MOF: Expects employees' income to rise in 2008
MOF: Recovery of private consumption is not assured
Â· GE MOF:
Economic upswing to continue at Q4 but at a slower pace
Â· GE BDB
Association: German economy may grow 2.5% in 2007
Â· GE BDB
Association: German economy may grow 2.0% or less in 2008
Â· GE BDB
Association: German economy is facing increasing risks
Â· GE IMK
Think Tank: Sees ECB holding at 4.00% until the end of 2008
IMK Think Tank: Sees economic upswing coming to a standstill in
Â· GE IMK Think Tank: Forecasts 2007 GDP growth of 2.6%
Â· GE IMK Think Tank: Forecasts 2008 GDP growth of 1.5%
ASIAN RELATED NEWS DURING EUROPE***
Â· PBOC raised its benchmark
lending rate by 18bps tot 7.47% and its deposit rate by 27bps to 4.14%
effective December 21
Â· Taiwan Central Bank raises rates by 12.5bps
to 3.375% as expected
Â· Philippine Central Bank keeps rates on hold
at 5.25% as expected
Â· *** FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
Â· On the commodity front crude oil is trading higher in the
session. Citigroup raised its 2008 Brent oil price forecast by $10 to
$80/barrel and raised its 2009 Brent oil prices forecast by $10 to
$75/barrel. Citigroup cited OPEC's willingness to defend high prices as one
of the reasons for the price adjustment. There were also reports overnight
that an oil tanker ran aground in Egypt's canal halting shipping.
Â· On the currency front the Yen is decoupling from its usual equity
market relationship after the PBOC raised interest rates. The Dollar
maintained its firm tone as growth headwinds emerged on the European
economic front implying that any possible European rate hikes will be put
on hold, and suggesting that perhaps BOE and even ECB rate cuts loom.
Â· On the data front the most notable releases overnight were in the
UK. The final reading on third-quarter y/y GDP was 3.3% above estimates of
3.2%. The third-quarter current account came in at -Â£20.0B, well below the -
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