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Thursday December 20, 2007 - 12:54:22 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Gone Home for the Holidays

The Central Banks are wrapped up in their own version of the Winter Games and we wonder if there are any investors still around to take notice. Despite all the action, thin holiday trading has the currencies tracking mostly sideways. (The pounding of the pound is the exception.)

The European Central Bank kept the excitement going this week when they dumped the equivalent of $500 billion in euros into the system. From that point the rumors began to fly. If the ECB is so concern about credit problems, will they follow the lead of other central banks and cut their benchmark interest rate?

Considering the crazy volatility over the last few weeks, you’d expect ECB rate cut chit-chat would warrant some type of reaction from the euro.

 [Chart not available in text format]

Only this morning are we beginning to see the euro push below this week’s trading range. The build-up could certainly lead to a big break lower, especially if investors seriously question the direction of ECB interest rates.

The Bank of China won’t be outdone. They know where the problems lie. That’s why they’ve pushed interest rates to a nine-year high to try to stamp out inflation. While other central banks battle to maintain economic growth, China is fighting to slow itself down.

We continue to believe an appreciating Chinese yuan is good for the entire block of Asian currencies. A rising yuan relieves regional pressure on the export market. When the cover is lifted, countries like Japan will have some breathing room to see their currencies move higher.

Might China’s news help the yen break out of a sideways range?
 

 [Chart not available in text format]

We’ll have to wait and see if investors get back to business or if they stay mesmerized by the Christmas lights. Let’s just say the market could be turned upside down by the time they get back from opening presents.


John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital

 

 

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