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Friday December 21, 2007 - 18:28:50 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (21 December 2007)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4410 level and was supported around the $1.4315 level.  The common currency continues to orbit the $1.4355 level – the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.3360 to $1.4965.  The pair’s upside was limited by the release of U.S. data today that saw core PCE inflation print at 2.2% y/y in November, above the Fed’s perceived 2.0% comfort zone ceiling.  These data mean CPI, PPI, and core PCE have all been above target and could inhibit the Federal Open Market Committee from tightening interest rates at the end of January.  The Fed today auctioned off US$ 20 billion in liquidity while the European Central Bank awarded US$ 10 billion through its facility.  These central banks are likely to continue to provide massive amounts of liquidity to try and counter the rise in interbank borrowing costs.  Other data released in the U.S. today saw the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rise to 75.5 from 76.1 at the end of November and 74.5 in mid-December.  It was also reported that November consumer spending climbed 1.1% - the largest increase since 2004 – while incomes fell.  In eurozone news, October factory orders were up 2.5% m/m and 10.9% y/y in October.  European Central Bank President said there are “risks on the side of a lower growth rate than the baseline scenario of growth of around 2 per cent.”  Trichet also said the ECB is working to make sure there are no second-round inflation effects.  Euro bids are cited around the US$1.4165 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥114.10 level and was supported around the ¥112.95 level.  Stops were hit above the ¥113.65 level, representing the 38.2% retracement of the move from ¥124.15 to ¥107.20.  The pair has not been this strong since 7 November. Risk appetite among trades is on the rise, especially after BoJ’s Policy Board voted unanimously this week to keep the overnight call rate unchanged at 0.50% and the central bank downgraded its assessment of the economy. Most traders believe the BoJ will keep interest rates unchanged for several more months.  The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.50% to close at ¥15,257.00.  Dollar bids are cited around the ¥112.50/ ¥111.75 levels.  The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥163.80 level and was supported around the ¥161.95 level.  The British pound and Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested offers around the ¥226.20 and ¥98.65 levels, respectively.  The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback closed at CNY 7.3630 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.3694 – the pair’s lowest closing price since the July 2005 yuan revaluation.  PBoC reiterated it plans to tighten monetary policy and curb rapid credit growth.  The central bank estimates 2008 GDP will print around 10.9% with consumer price inflation around 5.9%. 



The British pound came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.9810 level and was capped around the $1.9895 level.  The pair is right around its weakest showing since 22 August.  There is a lot of market chatter that Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will aggressively ease interest rates during this easing cycle, possibly again as early as next month.  Data released in the U.K. today saw December GfK/ NOP consumer confidence fall to a twelve-year low.  Also, Q3 productivity was up 2.6% y/y.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9795/ 1.9640 levels.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.7255 level and was supported around the ₤0.7215 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.1515 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1595 level.  Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 61.8% retracement of the move from CHF 1.1895 to CHF 1.0885.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1680 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.6630 level while the British pound came off vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 2.2890 level.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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