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Thursday October 7, 2004 - 08:41:07 GMT
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Daily Forex Trading Strategies by John Hardy at Saxo Bank

Today or tomorrow may decide once and for all whether it's go or a no-go for EUR/USD rally. 1.2250 and 1.2350 the key swing levels.

ECB Press Conference at 12:30 GMT may be key catalyst today.




NOTE: I'm filling in for Mr. Robert Balan. He will return to this column soon.


October 7, 2004

Economic Data Today:

08:00 GMT – Norway Industrial Production (Aug)
08:30 GMT – UK New Construction Orders (Aug)
11:00 GMT – UK BOE Announces Rates (no change expected)
11:00 GMT – Sweden Industrial Production/Orders (Aug)
11:45 GMT – ECB Announces Rates (no change expected)
12:30 GMT – ECB’s Trichet Holds Press Conference
12:30 GMT – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
14:30 GMT – US Weekly Natural Gas Storage
16:45 GMT – BOC’s Dodge Speaks
18:30 GMT – Fed’s Greenspan to speak at a conference
19:00 GMT – US Consumer Credit


Market Commentary:

Another day and another round of rangebound action for EUR/USD. Scanning back over multi-year charts, this is clearly one of the most low-volatility, trendless areas in EUR/USD and USD/JPY since the beginning of currency trading 30+ years ago - a very frustrating environment indeed for traders. The professional currency hedge funds out there are falling like flies.


But the event risks are lining up in a way now that suggest we will finally break out of this torpor soon. The upcoming presidential election and the final employment report before that event are two important potential catalysts, as is the continuing spike in oil prices. With a global slowdown likely due to the last-named phenomenon (as well as a drying up in liquidity from the go-go tax break, free-money years of 2002-present), and the continued balance of payment problems in the US, it's hard to understand how the US Dollar can do anything but fall. The question only begs whether the path to that fall will be a rocky one, or whether we're on the verge of a big and clean break higher in EUR/USD. I vote for the latter - but seeing is believing.

More news on the possibility of a bad employment report this Friday. Even the White House economist admitted that large hurricanes can have a surprisingly large affect on the payrolls data for the month. This seems plausible as the weekly jobless numbers did tick up heavily in September. At the same time, the old numbers discussed in a previous column will likely be adjusted heavily upwards in the BLS's yearly statistical adjustment - so some may try to find some spin on this.


Technical Comments:

EUR/USD - The EuroZone has been racked by horrible numbers of late - with yesterday's German Factory Orders fall of -1.5% for August the latest in a run of bad data. Some are speculating that Trichet will tone down his recently hawkish rhetoric. In fact, it's amazing to witness the rose-tinted view of the future that most central banks are spouting these days. Any turn to dovishness by Trichet may already be priced in, however. Trading could get volatile around Trichet's press conference at 12:30 GMT. The 1.2250 area is still key support, a break of which brings us fully back into the multi-month range. A rise through the key upside swing level of 1.2350 is preferred, as it brings on the likelihood of a retest of the 1.2440 top and then a possible break of that top and beginning of a new bull market to 1.2900 and beyond.

GBP/USD - was a roller coaster yesterday as it was first heavily bid on a bigger than expected increase in housing prices and then offered on a huge drop in industrial and manufacturing production numbers. The 1.7750 low from yesterday is support in this heavily oversold currency pair. Use that area as a stop on long positions. A return to above 1.7850 helps the bullish case and a break of 1.7950 aids it further - but a return to 1.8050 is needed before the chart attains bullish credentials.

AUD/USD - Has a well-defined and tight consolidation area between 0.7190 support and 0.7250 resistance. AUD/USD appears to be gearing up for a break of the 0.7285 area top and a try at 0.7350 resistance.

EUR/JPY - did find support above the 136.25 area mentioned yesterday. Prefer the long side with stops at 136.30 offered. A break of the 137.55 area top may bring on a test of 139.00.

USD/JPY - is still churning around in a range. The weak JPY may still be an oil price story (high oil prices negative JPY), as the currently surging stock markets would normally be associated with a strong JPY. USD/JPY would seem toppish at 111.50, with 112.00 negating the bearish view.

USD/CAD - watch out for BOC speakers today - which could send this currency pair either way. The recent huge reversal could still leave USD/CAD with a enough fuel to probe the 1.2500 level and possibly even 1.2450.


================================



Saxo Bank A/S accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information here in contained nor for any forecasts or recommendations. Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that you will profit from the strategies herein or that your losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Stops may not necessarily limit losses to intended levels. Please read the full disclaimer at http://www.saxobank.com/?id=193&Lan=DA&Au=2&Grp=6

 

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