User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Sunday December 30, 2007 - 21:56:48 GMT
FX Solutions - www.fxsol.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Market Directions Sunday, December 30, 2007

 

The recovery in the dollar since late November and its partial submergence this week were end of the year technical plays, nothing more. From August to November the dollar lost over 11% against the euro, profit taking on such an exceptional trend was inevitable, especially in December. The dollar fall since last Friday was a reversal triggered by the weak durable goods number on Wednesday. Neither move is predictive of market opinion going into the New Year.

In January the constants will return with the state of the American economy and its reflection in Federal Reserve policy paramount, and developments in Europe and the ECB a close second. The primary focus  on the US is simply because Fed policy and its next rate decision is undetermined. Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Fed would probably like to leave rates at 4.25% at the January 31st meeting. The financial and business communities would passionately like another rate reduction. The run up to the meeting will provide plenty of room for speculation.

The ECB meeting on January 10th will not generate nearly as much interest because the governors have so much less operational room. Inflation has been well over the 2.0% since September and is not likely to subside in the near term. But the ECB’s corporate desire to fulfill its inflation mandate is constrained both by the unresolved financial and credit market debacle and the faltering European economies. Both banks will probably have to rein in their better instincts when they make their January decisions; the Fed will likely cut 25 basis points, the ECB will remain on hold.

For a market primed for better news after last week’s strong retail sales figures, the US durable goods figures were a major disappointment. The dollar slid more than 100 points against the euro in the aftermath. The numbers hit the market at almost exactly the same time as the news of the assassination of Pakistani politician and presidential candidate Benazir Bhutto. An increase in tension in Pakistan and by proxy the oil producing regions of the Middle East should damage the United States economy less than the EMU, the States are far less dependant on Middle Eastern oil than Europe, but with the market already moving against the dollar there was no change in attitude. What transpires in the next few weeks in Pakistan will determine the overall market reaction but the mechanism will be the price of oil. Pakistan has a nuclear arsenal and the government is under great pressure from Islamic radicals, the presumed assassins of Ms Butto. The more radicals can destabilize the Islamabad government the higher the oil price will rise. If there is ever a change of power in Pakistan the sky may be the limit for oil. The ramifications for the world economy of a forced change in government in Pakistan could be devastating.

The Week in Review December 24 - 28

United States

The US economy seems to have a split personality. Consumer spending is strong, employment, wage growth and manufacturing are moderate, witness Friday’s Chicago Purchasers Index and the recent retail sales figures, but the housing sector continues to plummet. There is no lack of consumption but one question has been unavoidable for the past 18 months, 'when will the housing sector drag down the rest of the economy'? Perhaps we are asking the wrong question? If jobs are available and wages are steady or rising must the 72% of the economy made up by consumer spending suffer? Aren't consumers being eminently rational when they delay the purchase of a new house but not the purchase of a new flat screen or dress?

A home is the largest purchase most consumers will ever make, one with a very long mortgage trail and it entails a much longer view of the economy than normal consumer spending. Retail purchases are not usually delayed in the hope of a lower price in the future, in most cases the cost saving doesn’t stand against the immediate desire to own, and our culture encourages instantaneous consumption. But housing isn’t a normal retail purchase. With a house a wait of six months or a year may very well produce a substantially lower cost. That is especially true now. Isn't patience a logical reaction to the current housing market? And isn’t it sensible that moderate consumer spending is a product of the moderate job market? Home prices in many areas of the country have not fallen all that much from their peak, clearly prices must drop to market clearing level before customers will return. If consumers are holding off on the purchase of a new home that doesn’t necessarily mean other spending will diminish. Maybe the correct question is not when will the consumer economy be pulled to recession by the housing market but if?

Eurozone

The ECB continued its war of words against inflation. Jurgen Stark, executive board member promised that “the ECB will not hesitate to act before second round effects emerge”. “Act’ can only mean raising interest rates but the possibility for an ECB hike in the near future is severely undercut by two factors: the still unfolding credit market situation which subsides for a time only to reappear and rekindle fears of a financial system meltdown and the declining GDP growth in the EMU which would be devastated by an unexpected ECB rate hike. Whatever the rhetoric out of Frankfurt, the ECB will wait until the economic picture clears before it puts its words into action.

China

The yuan appreciated 6.4% against the dollar in 2007, that is nearly twice its 3.3% improvement in 2006, and it rose 3.5% against a trade weighted basket of currencies. But the yuan fell 3.7% against the euro in the same period This appreciation of the yuan against the currency of its most vocal critic, the United States, has led to predictions for a further 7 to 10 percent appreciation against the dollar in 2008. Chinese inflation was 6.9% annually in November and the government views yuan appreciation along with domestic interest rates and bank reserve requirements as its prime tools in controlling inflation. Beijing’s economic planners do not issue inflation targets nor do they comment on the specifics of the yuan exchange rate but with the Chinese economy expanding at more than 10% annually and commodity prices at historic highs, it is unlikely the yuan will appreciate any less in 2008 than it did in 2007.

Economic Releases December 24 - 28

United States

Wednesday: Case Shiller Home Price Index sank 1.4% in October to 192.89, the largest one month fall on record. From August to September the index had dropped 0.79%. Prices are down 6.5% year on year in October, in September they were 4.9% lower. In the past three years this series has weakened in the period from July to October.

Thursday: Durable Goods Orders added 0.1% in November far less than the +1.5% predicted, though better than the October 0.4% fall. It was the first positive month since July. Durable Goods ex transport fell 0.7%, the same as last month, the third drop in four months. Durable Goods ex defense rose 1.2%, the second gain in the past four months. Boeing added 177 new orders in November; in October the commercial airplane manufacturer received 56 orders. Conference Board Consumer Confidence for December was revised slightly higher to 88.6 from the preliminary figure of 87.8, ‘expectations’ gained while the ‘present situation’ fell.

Friday: the Chicago Purchasers Index for December was unexpectedly vibrant at 56.6 against predictions of 52.0 and November’s 52.9. “New Orders’ was the strongest component at 58.4, November had been 53.9. New Home Sales fell 9.0% in November to a 12 year record low at 647,000. The October sales figures was revised lower to 711,000 from 728,000. Market supply rose to 9.3 month, resuming the trend higher after the September to October drop from 9.2 months to 8.8 months. Despite the gloomy sales numbers the median sale price is down only 0.4% from a year ago. Whatever price declines have occurred, and there is wide local variation, they have not been enough to tempt people to purchase.

Eurozone

No economic statistics released

Germany

Friday: flash (preliminary) CPI for December was +0.5% m/m and +2.8% y/y, +3.1% had been predicted for the yearly number; November was +0.4% m/m, +3.0% y/y. Flash (preliminary) HICP for December was up 0.7% m/m and 3.1% y/y, a rise of +3.2% had been anticipated; November’s readings were +0.5% m/m, +3.3% y/y.

United Kingdom

Monday: Hometrack Hose Prices fell 0.3% in December, the greatest monthly drop in almost two years, cutting the annual rise to its smallest since June of last year. In November prices fell 0.2% for a yearly gain of 3.6%.

Friday: Nationwide House Prices fell 0.5% in December but are still 4.8% higher on the year. Results of -0.4% m/m, +5.3% y/y had been predicted. November was -0.8% m/m, +6.9% y/y.

Japan

Friday: Retail sales were 1.6% higher in November over a year ago, in October the gain had been 0.8%. Core CPI rose 0.4% year on year in November, the October result had been +0.1%. The Japanese unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in November from 4.0% in October.

The Week Ahead December 31 – January 4

United States

Monday: Existing Home Sales for November at 10:00 ET; October 4.97 million.

Wednesday: ISM Index for December at 10:00 ET; expected 50.0, November 50.8. Construction spending for November at 10:00 ET; October -0.8%. FOMC minutes of the December 11th meeting.

Thursday: ADP National Employment Report for December at 8:15 ET; November +189,000. Factory orders for November at 10:00 ET; October +0.5%.

Friday: Non-farm Payrolls for December at 8:30 ET; expected +75,000, November +94,000. Unemployment rate for December at 8:30 ET; expected 4.8%, November 4.7%. ISM non-manufacturing Index for December at 10:00 ET; November 54.1. Average Hourly Earnings for December at 8:30 ET; November +0.5% m/m, +0.1% y/y.

Eurozone

Wednesday: Manufacturing PMI for December at 9:00 GMT; November 52.8.

Thursday: M3 Money Supply for November at 9:00 GMT; October +12.3% y/y, 3 month moving average +11.7%.

Friday: Services PMI for December at 9:00 GMT; November 54.1 Flash (1st issue) HICP for December at 10:00 GMT; November +3.0% y/y.

Germany

Thursday: Unemployment rate for December at 8:55 GMT; November 8.6%.

United Kingdom

Wednesday: CIPS Manufacturing PMI for December at 9:30 GMT; November 54.4.

Friday: CIPS Services PMI for December at 9:30 GMT; November 51.9.

Japan

No economic statistics released

Joseph Trevisani
FX Solutions
Chief Market Analyst

Joe@fxsol.com

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and Foreign Exchange involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. The information contained on this email does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell by FX Solutions,LLC., and/or its affiliates, and is not to be available to individuals in a jurisdiction where such availability would be contrary to local regulation or law.


Have A Question?
Contact us.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105