User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday December 31, 2007 - 12:11:36 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - What To Expect For EUR/USD, Treasuries, and the Dow As We Enter 2008

 

Monday, 31 December 2007 10:51:48 GMT

JAN 2
ISM Manufacturing (DEC) (15:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
FOMC Minutes (DEC) (19:00 GMT; 14:00 EST)
 
Expected:                            50.5
 
 
Previous:                             50.8
 

What Are The Markets Facing?
 
On Wednesday, ISM manufacturing is expected to fall to a one year low of 50.5, just barely above the 50 boom/bust level, suggesting that conditions in the sector remain positive. However, traders will be watching the subcomponents carefully as well. With key US labor market figures scheduled to be released on Friday, January 4, the ISM employment index will be eyed. Indeed, a sharp drop in this number last month coincided with a drop to 94k from 170k in the highly market-moving non-farm payrolls report. If this particular index holds below the critical 50 level once again, estimates for the labor market report at the end of the week will be cut back from current expectations of a drop to 70K from 94K. Traders will also be watching the prices paid component, as the index is predicted to ease to 65.0 from 67.5, signaling that inflation pressures are stabilizing and raising speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates again in January to calm the instability of the financial markets and to stave off a recession. Indeed, traders will also be scouring the release of the minutes from the FOMC’s December meeting for clues as to their next policy move, as there are concerns the bank will leave rates unchanged in an effort to limit the acceleration of consumer price growth. In fact, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, an alternate voting member on the FOMC, said recently: “I have to say that I am uncomfortable with the inflation picture, and disappointed that the improvement we saw earlier this year was not more lasting.” Nevertheless, despite such commentary that suggests the Fed will not reduce the federal funds rate next month, futures markets show a 90 percent chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25bp, and this will continue to be reflected in price action in the FX, bond, and equity markets upon more evidence of deteriorating economic conditions.
 
If you would like to discuss this article with other traders or Currency Analyst Terri Belkas, please visit the DailyFX Fed Watch Forum.
 
Bonds – 10-Year Treasury Note Futures






Treasury note futures have fallen into a descending channel pattern on the daily charts, providing a bearish bias for the contract. However, if equity markets continue to falter, this could play into Treasury gains towards resistance at 113-19 and the closing high of 113-30. Furthermore, if ISM manufacturing proves to be disappointing and the FOMC minutes are dovish, markets may ramp up speculation of a January Fed cut, which would boost Treasuries towards said resistance. Support sits at 112-21 and 112-07.

crossmarkets_123107_1


FX – EUR/USD
 
The Euro rallied nearly 3 percent last week and has gone to test resistance at 1.4750, as the greenback tumbled amidst heightened risk aversion following the assassination of former Pakistani PM Benazir Bhutto. As we said recently, “data has been broadly mixed as of late, with consumer confidence and spending reports surprisingly proving to be more optimistic, while production and housing figures have been broadly disappointing. Nevertheless, with risks for the US economy vastly to the downside and the Federal Reserve still perceived as being dovish, it is little wonder the greenback is so susceptible to losses, especially at times of geopolitical distress.” Technical Strategist Jamie Saettele has called for EUR/USD to target 1.50 and beyond based on Elliot Wave analysis, and with trading volumes still thin and FX markets prone to sharp moves as we near the New Year, Wednesday’s event risk could trigger some wild price action. First, an ISM report is forecasted to reflect deterioration in the manufacturing sector, while the minutes from the FOMC’s December meeting will provide clues as to the central bank’s next move in January. The fundamentals are likely to be dovish, supporting the case for additional EUR/USD gains, but if the minutes suggest that the Fed will not cut rates again next month, the pair could finally pull back towards 1.4500.
 
Visit our recently updated EUR/USD Currency Room for specific resources geared towards the US Dollar.

crossmarkets_123107_2

 

Equities – Dow Jones Industrial Average
 
Declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average have paused at 200 SMA support amidst thin trading volumes. Where the Dow goes from here will depend primarily on the status of risk aversion in the markets as well as financial market news, but it is worth noting that resistance looms above near 13,600 while support is below near 13,200. On Wednesday, the release of ISM manufacturing could weigh the Dow lower, as continuously deteriorating conditions in the sector will not bode well for the economy as a whole. However, the minutes of the FOMC’s December meeting will likely play a greater role in equity market price action, as signs that the bank has little confidence on the health of the economy could be the trigger to push the Dow below near-term support.

crossmarkets_123107_3


Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105