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Monday December 31, 2007 - 12:46:28 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 31-Dec-2007....1206 GMT

Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by r
egistering at

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below

Wishing ALL the readers of FX Thoughts a very Happy and Profitable New Year 2008

USD-CHF @ 1.1247/52...Support at 1.1153-50
R: 1.1290 / 1.1326
S: 1.1200 / 1.1179 / 1.1153-50
USD-CHF did the unthinkable and fell to a low of 1.0896 in Nov-07, the first time ever since the 1970s. The lowest it had fallen before this was to 1.1120 in Apr-95. By falling to 1.0896 in Nov-07, it forced a lot of people to take huge hits on positions they had earlier taken betting that 1.10 would not be seen, let alone be broken. Having caused a lot of grief the market then promptly proceeded to move up, hitting a high of 1.1628 last week.

Looking at the Monthly closing chart, a trendline joining the Lows of Apr-95 and Dec-04 provides Support in the 1.10 region now. The question for 2008 is whether or not this Support will break. Given the overall negative sentiment for the Dollar, a test of 1.10 should at the least be anticipated.

Looking at the shorter term charts, USD-CHF hit a high at 1.1628 last week and then had a very sharp fall from there, in what is very possibly a resumption in the long-term downtrend, which the pair has been under since Sep-2007.

As such the pair is likely to fall towards 1.1000 or below over the next few weeks. However this week the Support would come in at 1.1153-50. Rallies could attract selling interest in the short term.

For today the Support is at 1.1200 and then at 1.1179, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.1290 and 1.1326, the statistically projected Max High for the day.

 GBP-USD @ 2.0003/07....Sideways Trend into 2008
R: 2.0040 / 2.0120
S: 1.9920 / 1.9850
The GBP-USD is in uptrend since 1.3677 (June 01), but it may have Resistance near 2.10. It was unable to sustain above it in early Nov-07 and is in corrective/bearish mode while below 2.01/2.02. It has potential to fall towards 1.9250 in coming months. January-08 could see a range of 1.95/2.01. Rallies towards 2.01, if seen, may be sold into. Note that the 200-Day MA is at 2.0161.

However, momentum studies suggest the market could be bottoming. It could suggest a sideways trend.

 AUD-USD @ 0.8778/84..Support at 0.8750
R: 0.8850 / 0.8889
S: 0.8750 / 0.8697
The Australian Dollar has been in an uptrend since 0.4846 (Sep-01). It entered a 3-year long sideways consolidation phase between 0.67-0.80 from 2003 to 2006. The long-term uptrend then entered its second upleg, rising from 0.7092 (Mar-06) to 0.94 (Nov-07).

There has been a profit-taking fall since the 0.94 high in November to the 18-Dec Low of 0.8554. It is likely to either consolidate sideways between 0.8650-0.8950 for a few weeks, OR fall towards 0.85-84 before embarking on a fresh upmove. For now, a rise past 0.92 looks difficult for the next few weeks.

Looking at the nearer term charts, AUD-USD has rallied well of its lows of 0.8554 (18-Dec), and has now gained for three weeks. However the important immediate Resistance for the week would be coming in at 0.8950. A rally above that is required to indicate further strength later on. Incase 0.8900-50 holds, then there could be a fall towards 0.8650 again before rallying. As such, trading could be tricky and uncertain, with a range between 0.8650 – 0.8950.

A sustained move above 0.8908 (Dec-07 High) would be very positive for the next few weeks, but appears unlikely.

Earlier today, the pair moved above an important trendline on the Daily Candles at 0.8800, joining the highs of 0.9076 (14-Nov) and 0.8908 (12-Dec), however that has been broken intraday subsequently. Immediately the Support is at 0.8750, on the trendline on the 4-Hourly joining the lows of 0.8569 (20-Dec) and 0.8725 (28-Dec). The statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 0.8697. On the upside the Resistances are at 0.8850 and 0.8889, the statistically projected Max High for the day. The pair is likely to stay quiet atleast for the next couple of days.


Happy Trading!


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