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Monday December 31, 2007 - 17:40:34 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Here We Go, Not Lying About the British Pound Again …

·         U.S. November Existing-Home Sales Rise 0.4% to 5 Million Pace (Bloomberg)

·         Defaults on privately insured U.S. mortgages rose 35 percent in November from the same month last year, an industry report today showed, adding to evidence the U.S. housing slump is deepening. (Bloomberg)

·         The pound posted its first annual drop in three years against the euro on speculation the Bank of England will keep cutting interest rates while the European Central Bank stays on hold. (Bloomberg)

·         London Scottish Bank Plc, the U.K. lender to customers with poor credit histories, fell the most in a decade in London trading after saying it will take a charge of as much as 22 million pounds ($44 million) to cover losses. (Bloomberg)

 

Key Reports Due (WSJ): 9:45a.m. Dec Chicago PMI. Previous: 52.9.

10:00a.m. Nov Existing Home Sales. Previous: -1.2%.

10:30a.m. Dec Dallas Fed Mfg Production Index. Previous: -3.5.

 

 

Quotable – Our favorite Friedman, we miss him so!

 

“I am favor of cutting taxes under any circumstances and for any excuse, for any reason, whenever it's possible.”

 

“A major source of objection to a free economy is precisely that group thinks they ought to want. Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself.”

 

“The Great Depression, like most other periods of severe unemployment, was produced by government mismanagement rather than by any inherent instability of the private economy.”

 

Milton Friedman

 

FX Trading – Here We Go, Not Lying About the British Pound Again …

 

Over the last few weeks it seems the idea about a weakening U.K. economy is gaining traction. Answers to the credit crisis are few and far between; the question marks still take up most of the news headlines. The result: the British pound is tripping over itself.

 

 

 

Take a look at a couple of the headlines we included in the “Key News” section at the top of today’s Currency Currents.

 

The British pound finished in the red versus the euro this year – the first time in three years that this has happened. The big reason: a narrowing yield advantage. Bank of England benchmark rates are expected to drift lower while European Central Bank benchmark rates are expected to stay unchanged.

 

Why? Because the outlook for inflation and growth in the U.K. make the case for a more accommodative monetary policy approach; it isn’t clear that the EuroZone will be faced with comparable pressures.

 

Case in point: another U.K. lender is feeling the pain. This time London Scottish Bank Plc is the sufferer. The company lends to customers with poor credit history and a report out earlier today revealed the lender is expected to take a charge of roughly $44 million to cover losses in this arena.

 

Now combine that with a whiff of dollar-positive news and SMACK … a rough day for the pound (granted the rest of the pack is suffering at the hand of the almighty greenback, too.)

 

 

Looks like dollar bears might be reaching for the champagne early today to help dull the pain!

 

Happy New Year!

 

 

John Ross Crooks III

Black Swan Capital

 

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
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07:30 CH- SNB Decision
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12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

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John M. Bland, MBA
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