Thursday January 3, 2008 - 04:04:28 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHF
||While yesterdayâ€™s low holds there seems more risk of gains|
||The 1.1225 low gave way and we saw losses to just a few points below the 1.1153 corrective low. This is normally a type of corrective low that causes a deeper pullback. Thus, while yesterdayâ€™s low at 1.1147 holds there does seem a good chance we shall see a return higher. A break above 1.1203 will assist while above the 1.1225 pivot (which may hold on first test) would trigger a stronger move higher to 1.1247-60 at least. Any further will require breach of 1.1270 which would extend to 1.1346-71.|
||The initial move higher is done at 1.1594 and thus we need be patient for buying opportunities although I donâ€™t see sustained upside until late January at the earliest. Above 1.1594 sees 1.1684 first. (2nd January)|
||The 1.1147-53 area is moderately important and breach will be required to trigger stronger losses. While there is a downside risk the 1.1247-70 area needs to cap. Any subsequent (or earlier) breach of 1.1147 would extend losses to 1.1121 and more likely to the 1.1051-80 area. Take care there and watch for development of a bullish divergence in the hourly chart to match that of the 4-hour chart. Next support is not then found until 109.75.|
||Having seen a peak at 1.1596 it looks like weâ€™ll see a period of consolidation with the larger risk being lower towards the end of the month. Watch 1.1153 and below there at 1.1051 and 1.0975. (2nd January)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The rally to 1.1596 came in 3 waves and we have seen a decline to 1.1225 which I feel may have completed 5 waves in a Wave a. Thus expect a correction in Wave b towards the 50%-61.8% retracements at 1.1411-54 at least.
On the downside watch the prior Wave (b) at 1.1153 which also represents a 61.8% retracement. Further support is at the 66.7% retracement at 1.1121 and the 76.4% retracement at 1.1051. However, we should also be aware of a very deep retracement close to the 1.0883 low.
Only above 1.1596 brings a more directly bullish structure.
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