Friday January 4, 2008 - 04:03:59 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHF
||Cautiously, while 108.22-57 supports I feel we should see gains above 109.74 for 111.43|
||Loss of 109.20 has seen additional losses down to 108.22 with a bullish divergence developing. While I canâ€™t really come up with a good wave relationship to suggest that 108.22 was an intermediate low it does look like a spike bottom and has produced potential for an inverse head & shoulders. Thus if we see a move back above 109.10 and then 109.74 look for a stronger rally through to 110.25 at least. However, above here will be required to maintain the upward momentum for 110.80 & 111.43.|
||I am less certain of the upside now and while a recovery to 111.43 is possible break here and at 112.20 will be needed to suggest a possibility of seeing 114.65 again. (4th January)|
||Losses stalled just above the 108.15 support. I have to be cautious given the possible spike bottom but without particularly strong Fibonacci relationships in the 108.22 low we must be aware of the risk of additional losses. Below 108.57 will pressure the 108.22 low and extends losses to 107.88 minimum and quite possibly the 107.21-52 area which I feel would hold if seen.|
||I need to recheck the cycles but there does seem downside potential through to March. If this is the case I suspect we could see a retest close to the 100-102 area. However, this shouldnâ€™t occur directly. (4th January)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The decline has been rather uneven and the 108.22 low doesnâ€™t seem to come from any strong Fibonacci relationship with the 85.6% retracement down at 107.88.
At the moment I am counting yesterdayâ€™s low as Wave â€“a- of a new ABC pattern lower. A 50% retracement is at 111.43. There is potential (should we see direct gains) for an inverse head & shoulders target at 110.88.
In case we see losses below 108.22 watch the 85.6% retracement at 107.88 in case we see a triangle develop and below there the 107.21-52 area should support to form a lower trough in Wave â€“a-.
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