Friday October 8, 2004 - 00:53:32 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 8th October 2004 Price: 1.2625
1.2645 ... 1.2675 ... 1.2715 ... 1.2735
1.2615 ... 1.2595 ... 1.2565 ... 1.2535
Watch the first move - we suspect a pullback to 1.2565-95 before higher
While the short term bullish view for a rally to 1.2745 before correcting hasn't broken down completely we feel that the wave structure supporting this has become stretched. As such we suspect that the correction lower should move into the 1.2565-95 area which we feel will provide a good buying opportunity. Form this support area we would then look for a move above 1.2682 which should follow-through to 1.2805 minimum and possibly the 1.2845-55 area which may see a brief pullback.
The downside is risky with little room for further losses. There is support at 1.2595 and this could well hold for further gains - only a breach would allow losses to extend to the 1.2565 area but this stands a good chance of forming a base. Further support is at 1.2535 and only below here would then threaten the 1.2500 area and possibly a return to 1.2443 and lower.
Elliott Wave Comments:
7th October 2004
With the break back above 1.2653 the implication is that the downside was complete at 1.2443. From there we have seen the development of five waves higher although we still consider the fifth wave as incomplete and should still test the 1.2745-75 area. This should form Wave [a] of the first part of the rally and be followed by a Wave [b] lower that should retrace to the 1.2535-65 area.
8th October 2004
With continued sideways consolidation we tend to view the structure from the 1.2676 high as an expanded flat and this would imply that there is little room below 1.2595 for this to complete. Maximum should be at 1.2565. This would then suggest further strength which we feel could reach 1.2805 minimum and probably the 1.2840-55 area which would then imply the Wave -d- peak of an ascending triangle which would then require just one further decline in Wave -e- before the long term uptrend resumes.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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