Monday January 7, 2008 - 03:55:46 GMT
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Daily Analysis for GBPUSD
||Loss of 1.9672 will trigger follow-through to 1.9619 and possibly as far as 1.9505-24|
||Losses stalled at 1.9672 and after a correction to 1.9849 we are once again approaching the 1.9672 low. I am very cautious about expecting any gains here. Only if the 1.9649-72 area holds and we see a reversal back above 1.9710 and then 1.9745 would I begin to feel more comfortable with the upside. If seen then look for extension to 1.9818-27. Take care there as this could hold within a small sideways correction. Above extends to 1.9849 again and 1.9886. |
||I find the structure a little less clear here. Thus only above 2.0100 again would provide further gains for 2.0195-2.0225 and possibly as high as 2.0292. (2nd January)|
||The 1.9649-60 are has been approached and has repulsed the initial attempt lower. We are seeing this test again as I write and I have a greater bias towards seeing this break. If seen then watch for losses to reach 1.9619 at least. There is a small risk of reversal from here though I still tend to prefer continued losses to 1.9589 minimum and quite possibly the 1.9505-24 support. |
||The downside is being pushed towards the daily corrective low at 1.9649 and if this breaks then we can expect stronger losses. There is minor support at 1.95889, moderate at 1.9505-24 and then 1.9406. (7th January)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
I have altered the wave structure slightly to show us within a 5 wave decline. I do have some reservations about this but it does seem to fit the manner of the decline better. The problem is matching the targets in Wave (c) to those of the Wave (iii).
The closest fit is the 1.9505-24 area where Wave (iii) will have extended by 161.8% as would the Wave (c). The next is more bearish to 176.4% projections in both Wave (iii) and Wave (c) at 1.9406.
This concerns because it is so bearish. Thus watch the daily corrective low at 1.9649-60 and only below suggests stronger losses. Until that break a move above 2.01 is required to provide greater relief.
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